Will Kyle Tucker make LAD better? He would make every team better, including teams with the best OF. That is not the question. Should the Dodgers pay his asking price? Remember, while every player wants to win, Tucker already has a ring, so $$$ may be more of an inducement for him.
Kyle Tucker is looking for at least $400MM. Here are three publications that predict what Tucker might get in FA. Judging by what the last couple of years top FA (Ohtani and Soto) were predicted to make, and what they actually got, maybe they are underestimating what Tucker will ultimately sign for.
- Baseball America – 11 years $380MM
- The Athletic – 10 years $427MM
- MLBTR – 11 years $400MM
When the Dodgers extended Mookie Betts, he was 1 year from reaching FA. At that time, Mookie accomplished: 4 X AS, 4 X GG, 3 X SS, 1 X MVP, Wilson Overall Defensive POY, MLB POY, Batting Title.
As a FA, Kyle Tucker is a 4 X AS, 1 X GG, and 1 X SS. Last year defensively, Tucker was -2 OAA and -1 DRS in RF.
And yet he wants and expects more than Mookie? I know it has been 6 years since Mookie has signed, and costs (and revenues) are rising. Still, that is a tall ask.
Per Cot’s Contracts, the Dodgers are currently at $321MM AAV. 11 years at $400MM, the AAV would be $36.36MM. Double that amount for the true cost (including luxury tax).
Yes, Guggenheim can afford the cost. But what does signing Tucker do for the perceived weaknesses in the LAD roster. Okay, maybe my perceived weaknesses…CF, 3B, RP. If there is one thing we have learned, you can never have enough pitching.
I plan on getting more into the FA with a later post. With that said, I have already opined that the only FA CF that I would consider is Harrison Bader. I know those of you who value players based on the back of the baseball card see no redeeming value in Bader. His defense is elite, and what he hit while with Philadelphia certainly warrants what MLBTR projects: 2 years $26MM.
I have no desire to rewrite what I have already written. Thus, here is what I previously wrote on CF:
https://ladodgerchronicles.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=11628&action=edit
I am working on a similar post for 3B.
$400MM can go a long way in helping with other areas of concern. I am drafting my post on FA, but for right now my top wish is RHRP Robert Suarez. MLBTR projects his contract to be 3 years and $48MM. Pricey for a 35 year old pitcher, but he would fit in nicely with the Dodgers.
Signing Tucker will also trigger a penalty. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, the Dodgers would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as their 2nd and 5th round draft picks in the 2026 draft.
Because the Dodgers were more than $40MM above the threshold last year, they will also see their 1st round selection in the MLB draft moved back 10 places. That would mean that the Dodgers would pick #40, and then not again until probably over 100 for the 3rd round pick. They would get one more in the 4th, but lose their 5th round pick. Last year, the Dodgers’ 3rd round pick was #104, 4th round was #135, and 6th round was #195. Because of the loss of draft picks and the 10 slot slide, the bonus pool will be greatly diminished, making it more difficult to sign overslot deals for prospects who slip.
Maybe AF says he does not care about the loss in draft picks, or the $1MM loss in IFA bonus $$$, he has accepted that loss that before. Maybe he trades Dalton Rushing for elite prospects to make up for the loss of draft picks. Either way he is going to do what is best for LAD and not be concerned with what other teams’ fans think.
I do believe that AF is not blind and can see what Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, and Nathan Lukes did for Toronto at minimal cost. Sure Vlad Jr, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Trey Yesavage, and Kevin Gausman were special, but Toronto does not get to the WS without Barger, Clement, and Lukes, or take the WS to 7 games.
As stated, Tucker does not help with a CF. While I do not believe that Pages is good defensively in CF, he looks far better in RF (+7 DRS and +3 OAA). He is a better defender in RF than Tucker. He is not at the level of hitter that Tucker is, but how far removed is he?
The price tag for Tucker pretty much eliminates most teams. The consensus says that the Dodgers, NYY, Toronto, Philadelphia, and even SFG will be negotiating with Tucker’s Excel Sports Management team. Every one of those teams can afford Tucker, but will they? SFG and Toronto need pitching more than a RF. And I am not so sure how aggressive Posey will be after the Devers trade. They will stay in the bidding for a while, but will drop out. The three that will stay in to the end will be LAD, NYY, and Philadelphia.
I think NYY takes the lesser cost route with Cody Bellinger. I think they want to see what Jasson Dominguez can do in LF. Judge is not moving from RF and Stanton is the DH.
I believe that Philadelphia will be all in on Tucker. If they cannot trade Nick Castellanos, they can afford to DFA him. Marsh can slide to LF, and Philadelphia can then afford to give #54 overall prospect Justin Crawford the job in CF.
It is not my money. So if the Dodgers look at their budget and feel comfortable squeezing another $400MM+ for Kyle Tucker, then so be it. As I said, he makes the team better.
However, IMO, I believe the Dodgers will be more $$$ judicious this year. Yes, even the Dodgers have a budget. I just do not know what that number is.
With or without Kyle Tucker, the Dodgers will be a better team in 2026. With the hit on the budget, penalties for signing a player with a QO, and the fact they already have a RF in Andy Pages (pre-arb), and need a CF, I just think it will be without.
I agree. I don’t like signing guys for years past their 35th birthday. We need to get younger. A short term contract for a CF seems the best route. Though I would bring Kike back to start in CF and use Kim/Call/Edman there also. They will probably not do that.
Jeff, as always you bring up bring up well thought out points, and make a good argument against the Dodgers signing Tucker. I think there are good reasons pro and against a Tucker signing, I have total confidence in AF, and am ok with whatever way he decides to go. I think one of the biggest reasons I’m for a Tucker signing is, looking forward I can see him as a cornerstone for the offense as players like Freeman, and Muncy start aging out, as far as CF goes, I was not on the Pages team last year, but I saw him come a long way in the last year, and hoping he can get better, moving forward, and be at least passable. Thanks for the article.
For me Tucker is getting superstar money for a star player.
Interesting argument. I trust the Dodgers’ internal evaluations of Tucker. If he’s the one, get him. If not, using the money elsewhere. Win/win.
The Dodgers will probably need a cf for a couple of years until their younger guys are ready. So, Bader makes sense. However, Bader had a very good offensive season for him. He is unlikely to repeat that and is injury prone like many Dodgers so I guess that fits(sarcasm) Pages had a very good year. He is a right fielder. He is not very heady to put it mildly. They could platoon Kim n Edman in cf. I would either move Teo to lf or trade him. (Easier said than done) I would also go after Suarez but not automatically make him the closer. Scott, if healthy, should bounce back. If healthy, Brock Stewart could be huge against righties an Evan Phillips clone. I would put Sasaki in the rotation until the playoffs and c what we need. Phillips, Graterol hopefully back. We should be able to have a great bullpen if guys are healthy.
There are two or three types of comments.
What someone thinks Friedman will do.
What someone wants Friedman to do.
The second may be something the commenter doubts Friedman would do or that the other team might do.
A third comment category makes a trade of someone that has been hyped in here to be worthy of playing for a contender for someone that has already shown to be worthy of such. Kim comes to mind.
I don’t think the money matters. Admittedly, I wasn’t aware of the extent of punishment incurred by spending so much money. Tax the rich, which I’m fine with actually. Seems rather exorbitant in this case, but, whatever. MLB wants a cap so this is what we get instead The Dodgers will do what they want and the money be damned. It’s all OPM with that group and they won’t lose money no matter what they decide.
That said, Tucker has steadily put up 4.6 WAR or higher and at 29 he probably will keep doing that for a few more years. Is there another outfielder out there that can do that? Or, maybe Bader in between Pages and Teo will work. They could run it back with that outfield.