Will Kyle Tucker make LAD better? He would make every team better, including teams with the best OF. That is not the question. Should the Dodgers pay his asking price? Remember, while every player wants to win, Tucker already has a ring, so $$$ may be more of an inducement for him.
Kyle Tucker is looking for at least $400MM. Here are three publications that predict what Tucker might get in FA. Judging by what the last couple of years top FA (Ohtani and Soto) were predicted to make, and what they actually got, maybe they are underestimating what Tucker will ultimately sign for.
- Baseball America – 11 years $380MM
- The Athletic – 10 years $427MM
- MLBTR – 11 years $400MM
When the Dodgers extended Mookie Betts, he was 1 year from reaching FA. At that time, Mookie accomplished: 4 X AS, 4 X GG, 3 X SS, 1 X MVP, Wilson Overall Defensive POY, MLB POY, Batting Title.
As a FA, Kyle Tucker is a 4 X AS, 1 X GG, and 1 X SS. Last year defensively, Tucker was -2 OAA and -1 DRS in RF.
And yet he wants and expects more than Mookie? I know it has been 6 years since Mookie has signed, and costs (and revenues) are rising. Still, that is a tall ask.
Per Cot’s Contracts, the Dodgers are currently at $321MM AAV. 11 years at $400MM, the AAV would be $36.36MM. Double that amount for the true cost (including luxury tax).
Yes, Guggenheim can afford the cost. But what does signing Tucker do for the perceived weaknesses in the LAD roster. Okay, maybe my perceived weaknesses…CF, 3B, RP. If there is one thing we have learned, you can never have enough pitching.
I plan on getting more into the FA with a later post. With that said, I have already opined that the only FA CF that I would consider is Harrison Bader. I know those of you who value players based on the back of the baseball card see no redeeming value in Bader. His defense is elite, and what he hit while with Philadelphia certainly warrants what MLBTR projects: 2 years $26MM.
I have no desire to rewrite what I have already written. Thus, here is what I previously wrote on CF:
https://ladodgerchronicles.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=11628&action=edit
I am working on a similar post for 3B.
$400MM can go a long way in helping with other areas of concern. I am drafting my post on FA, but for right now my top wish is RHRP Robert Suarez. MLBTR projects his contract to be 3 years and $48MM. Pricey for a 35 year old pitcher, but he would fit in nicely with the Dodgers.
Signing Tucker will also trigger a penalty. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, the Dodgers would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as their 2nd and 5th round draft picks in the 2026 draft.
Because the Dodgers were more than $40MM above the threshold last year, they will also see their 1st round selection in the MLB draft moved back 10 places. That would mean that the Dodgers would pick #40, and then not again until probably over 100 for the 3rd round pick. They would get one more in the 4th, but lose their 5th round pick. Last year, the Dodgers’ 3rd round pick was #104, 4th round was #135, and 6th round was #195. Because of the loss of draft picks and the 10 slot slide, the bonus pool will be greatly diminished, making it more difficult to sign overslot deals for prospects who slip.
Maybe AF says he does not care about the loss in draft picks, or the $1MM loss in IFA bonus $$$, he has accepted that loss that before. Maybe he trades Dalton Rushing for elite prospects to make up for the loss of draft picks. Either way he is going to do what is best for LAD and not be concerned with what other teams’ fans think.
I do believe that AF is not blind and can see what Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, and Nathan Lukes did for Toronto at minimal cost. Sure Vlad Jr, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Trey Yesavage, and Kevin Gausman were special, but Toronto does not get to the WS without Barger, Clement, and Lukes, or take the WS to 7 games.
As stated, Tucker does not help with a CF. While I do not believe that Pages is good defensively in CF, he looks far better in RF (+7 DRS and +3 OAA). He is a better defender in RF than Tucker. He is not at the level of hitter that Tucker is, but how far removed is he?
The price tag for Tucker pretty much eliminates most teams. The consensus says that the Dodgers, NYY, Toronto, Philadelphia, and even SFG will be negotiating with Tucker’s Excel Sports Management team. Every one of those teams can afford Tucker, but will they? SFG and Toronto need pitching more than a RF. And I am not so sure how aggressive Posey will be after the Devers trade. They will stay in the bidding for a while, but will drop out. The three that will stay in to the end will be LAD, NYY, and Philadelphia.
I think NYY takes the lesser cost route with Cody Bellinger. I think they want to see what Jasson Dominguez can do in LF. Judge is not moving from RF and Stanton is the DH.
I believe that Philadelphia will be all in on Tucker. If they cannot trade Nick Castellanos, they can afford to DFA him. Marsh can slide to LF, and Philadelphia can then afford to give #54 overall prospect Justin Crawford the job in CF.
It is not my money. So if the Dodgers look at their budget and feel comfortable squeezing another $400MM+ for Kyle Tucker, then so be it. As I said, he makes the team better.
However, IMO, I believe the Dodgers will be more $$$ judicious this year. Yes, even the Dodgers have a budget. I just do not know what that number is.
With or without Kyle Tucker, the Dodgers will be a better team in 2026. With the hit on the budget, penalties for signing a player with a QO, and the fact they already have a RF in Andy Pages (pre-arb), and need a CF, I just think it will be without.
I agree. I don’t like signing guys for years past their 35th birthday. We need to get younger. A short term contract for a CF seems the best route. Though I would bring Kike back to start in CF and use Kim/Call/Edman there also. They will probably not do that.
Jeff, as always you bring up bring up well thought out points, and make a good argument against the Dodgers signing Tucker. I think there are good reasons pro and against a Tucker signing, I have total confidence in AF, and am ok with whatever way he decides to go. I think one of the biggest reasons I’m for a Tucker signing is, looking forward I can see him as a cornerstone for the offense as players like Freeman, and Muncy start aging out, as far as CF goes, I was not on the Pages team last year, but I saw him come a long way in the last year, and hoping he can get better, moving forward, and be at least passable. Thanks for the article.
I think Jim Bowden is often wrong and sometimes stupid, but he makes a good argument that the Dodgers will sign Murakami.
Why?
First, obviously, is…Duh.
Of course Murakami would want to join is countrymen and WBC teammates Shohei, Yamamoto and Sasaki on the World Champs. (Put yourself in Murakami’s cleats. Why wouldn’t you want to be with peers who speak your language and become part of Dodgermania in Japan?)
Second, Murakami, at 25, is ten years younger than Max Muncy, who is now on a $10 million contract–probably his last as a Dodger. The Dodgers will need a successor soon enough, so why not Murakami?
The Dodgers could be cold-blooded and trade Max to make room for Murakami. Or the Dodgers could keep Max and use the ’26 season to nurture Murakami’s transition.
FWIW, Bowden suggests that Max is a good “floor” comp to Murakami. A lot of power, a lot of walks, a lot of Ks, and dodgy defense.
The “ceiling” comp, he suggested is…. Harmon Killebrew!
Murakami is expected to get a contract north of $100 million. Several teams could bid, but they don’t have the advantages of the Dodgers have. (Did any other team really have a shot at Sasaki?)
I’ve long believed that Max is grossly underpaid in the current baseball market. A six-figure contract for Murakami could really drive that point home.
Does Murakami make more sense than Tucker? I think so. There are a lot of more affordable alternatives in the outfield, such as Bader, and several OF prospects in the pipeline. But the Dodgers haven’t lined up ideal successors for Max and Freddie, who is now 36.
After Murakami succeeds Max at 3B, he could succeed Freddie at 1B, when Emil Morales grows up and takes over 3B.
For me Tucker is getting superstar money for a star player.
Interesting argument. I trust the Dodgers’ internal evaluations of Tucker. If he’s the one, get him. If not, using the money elsewhere. Win/win.
Maybe they’ll find the next Conforto!
Do you mean that my evaluations are not as good as the Dodgers? 😍
Did you recommend Conforto?
I trusted the front office on that one. But they are quite fallible.
No, I just mean ge’s worth it if tge team thinks he’s worth it. It’s not my money so I trust them. I do think on paper he’s a good fit but a mega-contract guy has to check all the boxes, character included.
The Dodgers will probably need a cf for a couple of years until their younger guys are ready. So, Bader makes sense. However, Bader had a very good offensive season for him. He is unlikely to repeat that and is injury prone like many Dodgers so I guess that fits(sarcasm) Pages had a very good year. He is a right fielder. He is not very heady to put it mildly. They could platoon Kim n Edman in cf. I would either move Teo to lf or trade him. (Easier said than done) I would also go after Suarez but not automatically make him the closer. Scott, if healthy, should bounce back. If healthy, Brock Stewart could be huge against righties an Evan Phillips clone. I would put Sasaki in the rotation until the playoffs and c what we need. Phillips, Graterol hopefully back. We should be able to have a great bullpen if guys are healthy.
I do agree with you about Scott. There is no reason the Dodgers cannot have two closers; one RH closer and one LH closer.
There are two or three types of comments.
What someone thinks Friedman will do.
What someone wants Friedman to do.
The second may be something the commenter doubts Friedman would do or that the other team might do.
A third comment category makes a trade of someone that has been hyped in here to be worthy of playing for a contender for someone that has already shown to be worthy of such. Kim comes to mind.
And then there is Bradley!
Haha 3 out of 2 people are bad at math
I don’t think the money matters. Admittedly, I wasn’t aware of the extent of punishment incurred by spending so much money. Tax the rich, which I’m fine with actually. Seems rather exorbitant in this case, but, whatever. MLB wants a cap so this is what we get instead The Dodgers will do what they want and the money be damned. It’s all OPM with that group and they won’t lose money no matter what they decide.
That said, Tucker has steadily put up 4.6 WAR or higher and at 29 he probably will keep doing that for a few more years. Is there another outfielder out there that can do that? Or, maybe Bader in between Pages and Teo will work. They could run it back with that outfield.
The Dodgers could “run it back,” as we now say, with the current roster, if healthy. They could start Edman in center, Kim at 2B, Pages in RF and Teo in LF.
But of course management should strengthen this team–and make it younger. The free agent market could bring in another marquee talent like Kyle Tucker or a blue-collar type like Bader. A lot of possibilities.
I’m looking forward to Jeff’s analysis of the trade market, which could have some interesting options, starting with Boston.
Boston’s Roman Anthony was just named a finalist for ROY. His teammates Ceddane Raefale and Wilyer Abreu just won Gold Gloves in CF and RF. In LF, Jaron Duran is a dynamic offensive force coming off a down year.
Yes, the Sox could use one of the four as a DH–but they also need pitching.
Each of the Boston outfielders could improve the Dodgers. The Dodgers could offer Teo as DH plus a pitcher or two.
Which of the four might the Dodgers want? The only untouchable, I suspect, is Anthony with his superstar potential. Would the Red Sox be willing to deal Raefale and use Anthony in CF?
For the Dodgers, the best fit, I think, would be Raefale–a young player with great speed and platinum-class defense. He would upgrade the team defense for years to come–but his team-friendly contract wouldn’t be cheap. He’d be fine as a “second lead-off” hitter at the end of the lineup.
Abreu would bring some power and defense in RF, but it would probably mean keeping Pages in CF.
Duran seems the most likely to be traded–and he is best used in LF.
Teo + Casparius for Duran + a lottery ticket? Just for fun, let’s add Ryan Ward, whose game might play up in Fenway. If Duran could get back to his ’24 performance, that could be special.
Harrison Bader graduated from the HS where I teach math (The Horace Mann School in NYC). It was fun to watch him tear things up in our HS league. I knew he was good, but our league is not that good, so I didn’t understand he might actually have MLB talent. Would be fun to have him on the Dodgers. We actually have turned out two MLB players (somehow): Pedro Alvarez also went to Horace Mann (you might remember him on the Pirates — actually led the NL in homers in 2013). Tucker is a great player, but I hope somebody else gets him; it seems kinda gluttonous if we get another big-money free agent.
Good argument against signing Tucker… but I still wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers make a serious bid–and not just to run up the price for the Phillies or Yankees to pay.
Why would the Dodgers go after Tucker?
Because they can. Because they are greedy. Because there is a “let’s be pigs” mentality in the front office, which was reinforced in part by Shohei’s deferrals.
Last off-season the Dodgers “won the winter”–but not really–by overpaying for Scott, Conforto and Yates. (Remember how AF said he did that because he didn’t want to over-pay at the trade deadline? He prefers to write fat checks to making big, bold trades.)
Defense is surely a secondary concern to the front office, but Pages has improved a lot in CF. Simply shifting Teo to LF will improve the defense. As for the offense, the piggish Dodgers might ruin baseball with this lineup:
Shohei DH
Mookie SS
Freddie 1B
Tucker RF
Smith C
Max 3B
Teo LF
Edman 2B
Pages CF
Plausible, no?
The Dodgers have another advantage in the FA market: the prospect of a dynasty. Some players are purely mercenary. Some players care a lot about geography–to stay closer to family, whatever– but if their goal is to play in October and win some rings, the Dodgers should be the preferred destination.
Also, I don’t think the brass worries as much as we might about how contracts look after age 35, or whatever. If the Dodgers sign Tucker, he might wind up succeeding Freddie at 1B, while Shohei becomes a full-time outfielder and Will Smith shifts to 3B. Back when AF traded for Mookie, did anybody here think he’d wind up at SS?
Anyway, I’m not eager for the Dodgers to pursue Tucker, just as I wasn’t keen on the idea of overpaying for Juan Soto. But Tucker, unlike Soto, may really want to come to LA, and that could spark more interest.
I’m glad the Dodgers are wealthy, but sometimes I wish it was a more careful, frugal operation that place more value on defense and does a better job of nurturing homegrown talent. Look at how the greed exhibited in signing Conforto basically screwed over Outman and Ryan Ward. I hope something good happens for Ward.
I like the idea of focussing all our FA $ on one player. We already have depth.
I hope the Dodgers sign Bader for CF. Move Pages to RF and Teo to LF if he isn’t traded.
Someone said Bader is injury prone. That has not been the case the last two seasons. He was bothered some in the playoff, but he played 143 games in 24 and 146 this year. Plus defender with good speed he averages around 18 steals a year. I agree with Jeff that I do not think LA goes after Tucker. He is a solid hitter with some power, but he is mainly a RF. I would rather see Pages back in right, and Teo moving to left, or getting traded. Bader would be a perfect short-term solution for the CF job. He has more power than Edman or Kim, and is a natural CF.
Works for me, Bear.
I’ve been pondering some Teo trades–Kwan? Duran? Taylor Ward?–but he seems like a good clubhouse guy. Hiding his defense in LF and with a late-inning replacement might be for the best.
Teo trades. I guess everyone is tradable in the right scenario but Teo is owed $42 million plus a buyout over the next two years. $16 million is deferred. (Does that help?) Was his 1.5 WAR and 103 OPS+ an aberration or at 33 is that who he is now? He has played some LF in the past but his defensive numbers out there look just as worse as they do in right. He’s just not a defensive player. Trade him? At this point giving him away may be the only option and that would be costly.
Hopefully he works hard this off season and comes back to the SS 4+ WAR player he was in ‘24. I wouldn’t count on it though.
I don’t see the need to trade Teo. You can play him part-time in LF and he can continue to be a positive clubhouse presence for the next two years. Maybe trade him at the 2027 deadline to a team needing a DH.
Fair point. He may not earn the money he’s being paid, 2+ WAR, but NEED to trade him? Not really. Put him in left, drop him in the order and see what happens.
Yep, can’t rely on him to be much more than #7 or #8 hitter anymore and possibly replaced in postseason.
He HAS to move to LF though.
Just a small point before you guys trade or release Teo, he had 5 HRs and 13 RBIs in the playoffs this season, more than any other Dodger not named Ohtani, and he only had one less RBI. I know his obp was low .309, but you can’t ignore his power numbers. OBW Kiki and Ohtani both had more Ks than Teo, during the post season.
Fair
It’s the full Teo experience
I would keep him, but he has to go to LF and probably share the position with someone.
His defense regressed last season, I hope he’s not in RF in 2025.
He definitely should not be in RF next year. I would trade him if possible and play him in LF if not traded.
Andy Pages allegedly cost some Emmanuel Clase bettors thousands of dollars during one of his at-bats.
According to the federal indictment, the Guardians were playing the Dodgers on May 28 this year. Clase had allegedly coordinated via text message with one sports bettor that he would throw a ball in a certain circumstance during the game. Clase came on to close out a 7-4 lead for the Guardians in the top of the 9th inning. His first pitch was supposed to be an intentional ball, but Pages swung at the pitch.
Should they investigate Pages for intentionally reducing pitcher’s pitch counts?
To bad Ortiz and Clase, while they were sitting around the hotel room on a road trip, didn’t watch “Eight Men Out” might have saved them a lifetime ban, and what sounds like some jail time also.
The money these guys are making isn’t enough? Crazy!
Cassidy— I couldn’t agree more. What were they thinking? Clearly they weren’t. And you have to think there’s probably several other players who have been in the pockets of the gamblers. Could be a nervous offseason for some players. BTW, great move legalizing sports gambling — which I believe Manfred was totally on board with.
They should make crime illegal
They’ve tried. It didn’t work.
Dodgers pursuing Kwan rumors surfacing again.