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40 Man Under Construction

Now that we have resolved the plight of the front office and the coaching staff, it is time to look at the impending 40 man roster. This will be an initial cursory review, as it will change 1,000 times during the winter.  There are currently 53 players on the 40 man.  There are 12 FA candidates that will be declared free agents if not extended or sign new contracts before 5 days after the final WS game.

  • Jayson Heyward
  • Clayton Kershaw
  • Julio Urías
  • Ryan Brasier
  • Shelby Miller
  • Jimmy Nelson
  • Kiké Hernández
  • JD Martinez
  • Kolten Wong
  • Amed Rosario
  • David Peralta
  • Jake Marisnick

None of the above will get a Qualifying Offer, including Clayton Kershaw.  I do not understand the mentality, but the Dodgers believe they are respecting CK by not putting an additional impediment for him moving on to Texas if that is what he wants to do.  The reward for LAD would be a pick between the 4th and 5th rounds in the 2024 draft.  One never knows what might pop out at that pick.

I think the Dodgers will be interested in bringing back Ryan Brasier and Shelby Miller at the right price, but that will come later in the winter.  I also think that Jason Heyward might be tempted to come back and be a 4th OF.  He is one that could be signed before the 5 days after the WS expires.

In addition to the 12 free agent candidates, the 2023 LAD roster includes 6 players with club options:

  • Lance Lynn – $18MM, $1MM buyout
  • Max Muncy – $14MM, $0 buyout
  • Joe Kelly – $9.5MM, $1MM buyout
  • Blake Treinen – Option somewhere between $1MM and $7MM, $0 buyout
  • Daniel Hudson – $6.5MM, $0 buyout
  • Alex Reyes – $3MM, $100K buyout

Max Muncy is almost a guarantee club exercise.  Max put up a 2.9 fWAR (2.6 bWAR) this year, with a value estimated at $22.9MM.  $14MM seems to be a more than reasonable figure for a 33 year old player with a 115 OPS + and a career OPS north of .800, and 4 out of 5 full seasons with a HR total of 35 or 36.  He has surpassed 100 RBI for the first time, but has two others at 98 and 94 in the last 5.

If Max would accept a 2 year $20MM and a club option at another $10MM, I say get ‘er done.  I think Muncy is happy with LAD and is not looking to max out.  Otherwise how does one justify CT3, 4 years at $60MM vs what Max has been getting.  Max is more versatile than JDM so he could be that DH and utility infielder (3B, 2B, 1B) if necessary.

I would pass on Lynn, Kelly, Hudson, and Reyes.  Treinen’s option maxes out at $7MM, but is dependent on time missed in 2023.  If Treinen’s option is at $1MM (as some have speculated), I would exercise the option and bring him to ST and let him make the team.  If it is anywhere close to $7MM, I would pass.

These decisions will be made before 5 days after the last WS game.

Thus before any free agents are signed or re-signed, and only considering Max Muncy’s option will be exercised, that leaves the current roster as:

Under Contract (7):

  • Mookie Betts
  • Freddie Freeman
  • Chris Taylor
  • Tony Gonsolin
  • Miguel Rojas
  • Austin Barnes
  • Max Muncy (I assume his option will be exercised)

Note – Tony Gonsolin has one year remaining on his contract.  He returns to arbitration for 2025.  He is a Super 2 MLB player and will have a 4th year of arbitration (2026) unless extended (extremely doubtful).

 

Arbitration (13)

  • Walker Buehler (4th year arbitration)
  • Ryan Yarbrough (4th year arbitration)
  • Caleb Ferguson (3rd year arbitration)
  • Will Smith (2nd year arbitration)
  • Dustin May (2nd year arbitration)
  • Yency Almonte (2nd year arbitration)
  • Brusdar Graterol (2nd year arbitration) – Super 2 (has 4 years arbitration)
  • Wander Suero (2nd year arbitration)
  • Evan Phillips (1st year arbitration)
  • JP Feyereisen (1st year arbitration)
  • Gavin Lux (1st year arbitration)
  • Alex Vesia (1st year arbitration)
  • Victor González (1st year arbitration)

 

Pre-Arbitration (16)

  • James Outman
  • Bobby Miller
  • Ryan Pepiot
  • Michael Grove
  • Emmet Sheehan
  • Michael Busch
  • Miguel Vargas
  • Jonny Deluca
  • Gavin Stone
  • Kyle Hurt
  • Gus Varland
  • Diego Cartaya
  • Andy Pages
  • Jorbit Vivas
  • Bryan Hudson
  • Tyler Cyr

That is 36 players on the 40 man on the 6th day after the World Series concludes.  This includes a number of non-tender candidates.  The Dodgers prefer not to non-tender, but may have to depending on the number of Rule 5 draft candidates they want to protect, and any of the FA they may want to re-sign.

November 15 – All reserve lists must be submitted, which is the Rule 5 draft protection date.

November 17 – All players on the 40 man must be tendered a contract or they become free agents.  Players can be released prior to this date if necessary due to the number of Rule 5 draft candidates they want to protect.

To the best of my knowledge there are 58 Rule 5 draft candidates.  The players that will be most considered for protection:

  • RHSP – Nick Frasso
  • RHSP – Landon Knack
  • RHSP – Kendall Williams
  • C/2B – Yeiner Fernandez
  • C – Hunter Feduccia

IMO, the three pitchers are locks.  While I do like Hunter Feduccia, he has passed through Rule 5 already.  He will be 27 next year and is probably nothing more than a backup catcher at the MLB level.  There are a whole host of potential backup catchers that are not signed to MLB contracts that will be available if the Dodgers need a backup stashed at AAA.  The best case for LAD is that Feduccia is not drafted and competes for the backup spot in ST.

It is hard to imagine that a player not yet reaching AA would be picked up, so Yeiner Fernandez should be safe.  Then again, the Dodgers protected Jorbit Vivas and Eddys Leonard before they reached AA.  At the time, I thought that was premature as I did not believe either would be selected and remain on an MLB roster for the entire season.  But one never knows for sure.  If the Dodgers need one more on the 40 man, I think Fernandez will be that person.

Some of the more familiar names who will not get consideration, IMO:

AAA – Ryan Ward (1B/LF/RF), Drew Avans (CF), Mark Washington (RHRP), Alec Gamboa (LHRP), John Rooney (LHRP), Justin Yurchak (1B, LF)

AA – Robbie Peto (RHP), Kody Hoese (3B/2B/1B), Brandon Lewis (3B/1B), Carson Taylor (C), José Ramos (OF), Aldry Acosta (RHRP), Sauryn Lao (RHRP), Braydon Fisher (RHRP)

A+ – Hyun-il Choi (RHSP), Robinson Ortiz (LHP), Jerming Rosario (RHSP), Luis Rodriguez (OF)

Rookie – Edgardo Henriquez (RHP), Carlos Duran (RHP)

I do like Jerming Rosario, but I cannot see a need to protect him at this time.

I do believe that the Dodgers would love to protect either or both of Edgardo Henriquez and Carlos Duran.

My best guess 40 man:

Pitchers (24):

  • Yency Almonte
  • Walker Buehler
  • Tyler Cyr
  • Caleb Ferguson
  • P. Feyereisen
  • Nick Frasso
  • Tony Gonsolin
  • Victor González
  • Brusdar Graterol
  • Michael Grove
  • Bryan Hudson
  • Kyle Hurt
  • Landon Knack
  • Dustin May
  • Bobby Miller
  • Ryan Pepiot
  • Evan Phillips
  • Emmet Sheehan
  • Gavin Stone
  • Wander Suero
  • Gus Varland
  • Alex Vesia
  • Kendall Williams
  • Ryan Yarbrough

 

Catchers (4):

  • Austin Barnes
  • Diego Cartaya
  • Yeiner Fernandez
  • Will Smith

 

INF (7):

  • Michael Busch
  • Freddie Freeman
  • Gavin Lux
  • Max Muncy
  • Miguel Rojas
  • Miguel Vargas
  • Jorbit Vivas

 

OF (5):

  • Mookie Betts
  • Jonny Deluca
  • James Outman
  • Andy Pages
  • Chris Taylor

Some of the above will be released and some will be traded.  Some could be released prior to November 15 to protect additional Rule 5 draft candidates.

Both Gonsolin and May must be on the 40 man until ST, which is when they can be placed on the 60 day IL.

That is my best shot at the 40 man come November 17.

Next I will look at the financial commitments.

 

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Singing the Blue

I’d like to see them bring back Brasier but in order to do that I think they’ll have to act fairly quickly. He’ll be getting lots of interest and won’t be on the market very long. I’m sorry we let Martin go last year. Don’t want to make a similar mistake again this winter.

Would also like to see Shelby Miller back. Kelly is just too injury prone to keep a roster spot open for him and he’s certainly not worth exercising the 9 mil option. If he’d agree to something like 5 million I’d consider it, but someone will give him more and I’d only do that after most everything else plays out.

I don’t see any reason to keep Cyr or Suero on the 40 man. Would rather use those spots to protect a guy like Jerming Rosario who, although he’s still in the low minors, might just appeal to a lower division team who is willing to take a chance on him. Same holds true for Henriquez and Duran. Young, low minors pitchers seem much more likely to jump directly to the majors (in a Rule 5 scenario) than do position players.

It’s interesting that Yeiner Fernandez is only getting infield work in Az and not being played at catcher. I think they like him quite a bit and I’d rather put him on the 40 man instead of risking losing him. Again, no reason to roster Cyr or Suero or maybe even Bryan Hudson.

Agree with your analysis of Treinen’s option. 1-2 million, exercise it. More than that, probably let him go. Of course, they know more about his physical condition than we do, so I guess we’ll have to trust their judgement. Even 7 mil for a healthy Treinen is a bargain.

Jeff Dominique

Those are the same three players I thought could be released. I would love to see Jerming Rosario protected. The downside is that he runs out of options in three years. Jorbit Vivas will be entering his 3rd year option, meaning he cannot be optioned in 2025 without being DFA.

Bluto

Why would JD Martinez NOT get a qualifying? Because of Ohtani?

Jeff Dominique

He is eligible, but $20MM? $20MM for JDM and $14MM for Max? I just do not see it.

Bluto

Oh. I just thought there’s no way he accepts it (he’ll get a multi-year offer somewhere) and the Dodgers get a pick.

Bluto

Appreciate that. Good to know.

Last edited 7 months ago by Bluto
Jeff

Let Max go. Sign JDM to DH. Get a 3Bman who can hit. That is a more solid lineup to face daily. Clean out the rest of the gang including Heyward. He will get a better contract elsewhere. Nullify the Turner curse.

Bobby

how insanely money is Yordan Alvarez in October??

Granted, F Houston, but still.

Bluto

He was 0-4 with 3 Ks last game!

Bobby

oh wow, I did not know that. I know he has 5-6hr this postseason already

Bluto

So what do we think is the difference between Phillies and the Dodgers vs. the D’Backs…

  1. The layoff?
  2. The aggressiveness?
  3. Just batters slumping vs. being “on”?
Bluto

I’m not so sure.

I think it’s just a matter of getting hot.

You can’t convince me those four are better than: Mookie, freeman, Martinez, Muncy and/or Smith.

Badger’s recent WAR stats kinda speak to this, no?

And they are doing nothing but HRs. The manager is irrelevant when players are hot.

Bluto

I’m definitely not a Doc fan. But Thompson has been running out Schwarber as a lead off hitter all year.

If that’s not “new school” then I’m a monkey’s uncle.

Bluto

THen I agree!

We should move on from Roberts as a manager. Ideally to one who will do what works and win.

Bluto

This is worth nothing, but here are ones I like and don’t like
LIKE: Counsel
LIKE: Will Venable
DON’T LIKE: Utley
LIKE: James Rowson
DON’T LIKE: Scioscia
LIKE: Carlos Mendoza
DON’T LIKE: LaRussa (JOKE!)
DON’T KNOW: Kapler

Bluto

TBH, I just picked up those names from back when the BoSox were picking a manager. Except for Will Venable, whose name has come up repeatedly.

For Utley, I don’t think he wants to be a manager. He’s happy living in Europe, I also think there’s this weird “he played the game the right way, which means he’d be a good manager” mentality that I can’t grasp. Playing isn’t decision making on the same level.

Being a good manager is people skills, problem solving, Analytical analysis, problem anticipation, all skills that are outside of this weird “right way” stuff. I also think it’s very rare for great players to be good managers.

Last edited 7 months ago by Bluto
Jeff

it’s about time.

Jeff

Trea Turner, pure and simple. The best sparkplug we’ve had in years.

Badger

Exercise the option on Muncy, maybe even extend him, sign Ohtani, then trade Muncy for solid pitching.

I have no opinion on the 40 at this time, but trust your judgment on it.

Bumsrap

I’m okay with taking the option and then trade him but it doesn’t sit well with me to extend him and then trade him.

I would either not take the option or package him with others to get a desired player.

I would give Kershaw a QO. It wouldn’t stop Texas from signing him IMHO. That doesn’t prohibit the Dodgers from paying him more. I would also tell Kershaw if they sign one or more free agents there might not be room on their payroll so don’t wait too long to decide if you want to come back.

Last edited 7 months ago by Bumsrap
Badger

I never said starting pitching. I said solid pitching.

There are 9 stadiums listed with short porches. If all he has to do is hit, in those stadiums he could hit 40 and drive in over 100 for at least 3 more years. Muncy trade value is listed at 12.9. There are plenty of solid relievers, or minor league prospects, that could be available for a home run hitting DH.

StevieD

I don’t get the fascination with Ohtani. All he can do next year is DH and we have plenty of those. $400M-500M for that? Pass!

Dave

I agree!

Badger

Have you read his stat line?

Here it is:

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/individual/?sortStatId=HOME_RUNS&leagueStructure=mlb.struct.league.1&selectedTable=0

He did that in 135 games. 6 oWAR. And he will pitch again.

If the Dodgers don’t get him I just hope the giants or Padres don’t.

Bumsrap

Ohtani is likeable. He would fit in with the Dodger clubhouse. He would be a fan favorite. If he doesn’t pitch again he could be Babe Ruth like.

Bobby

so does that mean they won’t give qualifying offers to those guys, in the event those guys accept?

Or would they still offer the qualifying offer, and then if the player accepts, turn around and trade that player?

Dave

That’s alot of msneuvering. All I can add is that Friedman usually has players with lots of options so he can use the whole 40 man. So my guess is any marginal player with no options will be traded.

Bluto

Picking up on what Friedman usually does….

Once again, I want to point out Friedman’s MO.
He goes after superstars and he goes after undervalued assets.
He doesn’t go after Chapman, Adam Frazier or Jordan Montgomery.
He could change his philosophy, but until now he hasn’t.

Oldbear48

Great stuff Jeff. As for the 40-man, it is a crapshoot.

tedraymond

Hey Bear. I finally heard the “baseball song” you included. I don’t think I’ve ever heard it before. Pretty clever lyrics. Who sang it?
Appreciated ” ‘Carry On’ My Wayward Son” by Kansas.
Enjoying all the tunes. Thanks again.

Bluto

Phillies just keep bashing homers, they are doing what the Dodgers hoped to do.

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