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71 to Play

After last night’s win, the Dodgers have 71 games left. By August 1, the trade deadline they will be left with 58 games to play. Then unless something disastrous happens, the playoffs.

Supposedly, the Dodgers have the easiest schedule of any of the contenders left. So, a 58 game sprint. We all know they need starting pitching, but a rental, or someone under team control?

My guess is they go for a rental. Less cost prospect wise. Many have been mentioned here and on other Dodger sites.

Giolito makes the most sense, but the bidding will be brisk. Cease is on the Sox’s GM’s list as untouchable along with Vaughn, Jimenez and of course, Robert.

Bieber is having forearm issues, Montgomery just coming off of the IL, Flaherty is not pitching as well as he has in the past, and who knows who the Cardinals are going to put on the market. If Arenado is available, LA has to kick the tires on him.

As the days go by, it looks like more and more teams are going to be sellers whereas a couple weeks ago, it looked like it was going to be different.

Forget Ohtani. Dodgers best chance of getting Shoei will be in free agency. And then he is going to cost massive amounts of dollars. And Moreno is not going to alienate his entire fan base trading his star up the freeway.

My firm belief is that the Dodgers will get one, maybe two pitchers, at least one of them a starter, at the deadline. Maybe a right handed bench bat. I have zero faith in Marisnick to add anything to this roster.

Pepiot is on the way back, Buehler is targeting a September return and Roberts said he will be used strictly as a starter. Thor is throwing again and might be back by August along with Kershaw who they are bringing along slowly.

So the next couple of weeks should be interesting. I will be watching with anticipation, for the Dodgers next move.

 

07-16-2023 MiLB Game Summary Report

by Jeff Dominique

 

OKC Dodgers 7 – Sacramento River Cats (San Francisco) 3

All OKC hitters reached base and all but 2 got a hit.

Key Performers:

  • Noah Syndergaard – Started – 5.0 IP, 2 runs, 4 hits, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 HR
  • Ken Giles – 1.0 IP – I run, 1 hit, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR
  • Alec Gamboa – 1.0 IP – 0 runs, 0 hits, 3 K
  • Bryan Hudson – 1.0 IP, 0 runs, 0 hits, 2 K

 

  • Drew Avans – 2-5, 2 doubles (16)
  • Kole Calhoun – 2-4, 1 BB
  • Devin Mann – 2-5, double (league leading 32)
  • David Dahl – 1-4, 2 RBI, HR (2)
  • Michael Busch – 1-5, 2 RBI, HR (12)
  • Miguel Vargas – 1-4, 1 BB

Box Score

 

Tulsa Drillers 2 – Midland RockHounds (A’s) 0

6 pitcher, 4 hit, 3 BB, 13 K shutout

Key Performers:

  • Nick Frasso – 4.1 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 BB, 6 K, 15 batters faced, 66 pitches

 

  • Austin Gauthier – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run
  • Jorbit Vivas – 2-5
  • Eddys Leonard – 2-3, HBP, 1 run
  • Kody Hoese – 2-3, 1 BB, double (5)
  • Imanol Vargas – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 RBI, double (15)

Box Score

 

 

Great Lakes Loons 6 – Fort Wayne TinCaps (San Diego) 3

7 straight Great Lakes batters reached in the 4-run 5th inning.

Key Performers:

  • Maddux Bruns – 4.0 IP, 2 runs, 1 hit, 4 BB, 3 K, 1 HR (2-run HR in 1st)
  • 4 pitchers – 5-0 IP 1 run, 3 hit, 2 BB, 11 K

 

  • Chris Newell – 2-3, 1BB, 1 run
  • Chris Alleyne – 2-3, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI
  • Max Hewitt – 1-3, 1 run, 3 RBI, SF

Box Score

 

Modesto Nuts (Seattle) 8 – Rancho Cucamonga 6

Both teams score 5 in the 1st inning.  The score was tied 6-6 after 3 innings.  Modesto scored a pair of runs late in the game for the victory.

Key Performers:

  • Sean McLain – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR (1)
  • Josue De Paula – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run, double (10)
  • Luis Rodriguez – 3-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (4) – 8-11 last two games
  • Jose Izarra – 3 BB

Box Score

 

 

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Badger

Syndergaard went 5 with OKC. 2 earned, 6 Ks, 52 pitches. He will be back. So will Pepiot and maybe Buehler, though I’m not counting on him being a starter in post season games.

There has been no talk of the luxury tax lately. Last I checked we were about $13 million over. That being the case, will it even be an issue when considering who we bring on for the final push? I doubt it. Bauer be damned. Full speed ahead.

Dave

At some point don’t they need to get below the luxury tax just reset it? This would seem to be a good yr to do it, or next yr without Bauer’s money.
To get that done this yr they would have to trade away some salary,i.e. Muncy, Taylor, Barnes, and Marisnik.
IMO they would be no worse replacing them with Busch/ Vargas, Yoni Hernandez and Hunter Feducia.

Oldbear48

That sounds about right. But Barnes, Taylor and Muncy have very little trade value. Marisnick is just holding a spot. Depending on what they do at the deadline. Taylor’s biggest asset is his versatility. But no one is picking up the 30 mil on his contract owed after this season is over. Barnes is only making a little over a million. No salary relief there.

Last edited 10 months ago by Oldbear48
Bumsrap

I wish we could all agree that if Muncy has no trade value then he should not be our clean up hitter and stop mentioning his OPS and RBIs.

Badger

Since you brought it up, he does have 21 home runs, 53 RBIs and an OPS+ of 112. Those are good numbers strongly suggesting he has value – to the Dodgers. He can and will help down the stretch.

Bobby

plus he hits majestic pop ups that have such amazing spin, nobody can catch them!

Dionysus

He is a dangerous hitter.

Until he isn’t, he will play.

Bluto

The popular theory is the plan was to get under and then Bauer happened.

I think the threshold to stay under is 273 if you cant get fully under. That # means you drop ten spots in the draft order

Jeff Dominique

Agree. It is the $273MM tier that AF needs to stay under. The tax may be high, but it is not onerous for the Dodgers. It is not onerous for San Diego. San Diego has to drop $5MM to get below $273MM and not drop 10 spots for 1st round pick, but they can afford the tax.

OhioDodger

Not sure drafting 36th instead of 26th is that big of a difference in what is available. Is there a threshold where you lose the 1st round pick entirely? Now that would put some teeth in the penalty.

Bluto

Well, it would have had a tremendous impact in this draft. As the player they wanted went before where they picked (after the 10 pick penalty) and they ended up taking the player they targeted with the 60th pick.

Jeff Dominique

The Dodgers had to select their 2nd round choice as their 1st choice because their 1st choices were all gone. The Dodgers were reportedly high on Jonny Farmelo who went #29, Adrian Santana #31, Charlee Soto #34, and were really high on Thomas White #35. So it did make a difference this year. Will Kendall George turn out to be better than those 4? Time will tell, but it did impact their pick.

A team cannot lose their 1st round pick via exceeding CBT. But they can lose the next round pick if the a team exceeds their allotted draft bonus pool by more than 5% and less than 10%. If they do, they will lose their next year’s #1 draft pick., plus 100% tax of the excess.

They will lose a first and a second rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent, and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.

OhioDodger

Well, I guess it does matter. More impetus to get under the cap.

OhioDodger

Definite sellers: Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, ChiSox, St Louis, Washington, and Colorado.
Teams that will probably be sellers: ChiCubs and Pittsburgh.
Teams that should be sellers but might not throw in the towel: San Diego and the NY Mets.
Anyones guess: Boston, LA Angels, Seattle.

That is 14 teams if they all become sellers leaving 16 potential buyers. Definitely a sellers market. Which means the cost will be high and probably over priced for what you get.

I think our bullpen will be OK. They have been doing well the last month.

We could really use a proven starter that can go at least 6 innings per start and a right hand hitting outfielder that crushes lefty pitching.

Right hand hitting outfielders that will be free agents at the end of this season and play for a team that might be selling:

AJ Pollock, Sea
Teoscar Hernandez, Sea
Hunter Renfroe, LAAngels
Randal Grichuk, Col
Tommy Pham, Mets
Jurickson Profar, Col
Trey Mancini, Cubs
Adam Duvall, Boston
Andrew McCutcheon, Pit
Mark Canha, Mets

Any of these look good? Duvall and Hernandez would probably be my first choices.

Jeff Dominique

The only one of the above that I would be interested in would be Randal Grichuk. Intra division trades are uncommon, but Colorado is so far out of it, that I doubt they are worried that Grichuk will come back to hurt them. Some team will out bid LAD for him.

Tommy Pham is probably the next best option, but I am not sure what baggage (if any) he brings. He has moved a lot. If AF/BG do not consider him to be disruptive, he would be option 2

Teoscar Hernandez leads MLB in strikeouts with 121. Unless you believe that he can become that 2021 Toronto hitter again, he is really not worth losing a prospect for.

I like Duvall, but I am not giving anything more than a rookie level lottery ticket.

McCutchen does not want to leave Pittsburgh, so you may not get the Cutch you want. Although he is a professional, and a tremendous clubhouse guy. Cutch would have to whole-heartedly accept leaving Pittsburgh to get his full value.

It depends on what the asking price is. I am not giving a top 100 prospect for any of the above. Probably not a top 15 LAD prospect, and no more than 1 top 30.

I would rather go hard after Lane Thomas. Unless there is a game changing bat, why change an offense that is scoring runs. None of the above are game-changing bats, and the team needs starting pitching.

BTW, even though NYY will be “buyers”, I do believe Harrison Bader could be available if any one was interested.

Singing the Blue

Totally agree with everything you said here. Since I don’t see Pages or Ramos being ready to break ST with the team next year, I’d rather find a righty hitting outfielder that we would have longer control over.

Even if Jonny D makes the opening day lineup next year we could still use an extra righty hitting outfielder.

That’s why Lane Thomas makes the most sense to me, even though he’d come at the highest price. We have all those Rule 5 guys and Washington is rebuilding. We can get Thomas if AF really wants him.

Badger

The Dodgers are OPSn .793 vs LHP, which is higher than what they OPS against RHP.

We need pitching over hitting. If we’re going to send good prospects out, let it be for pitching.

Jeff Dominique

I have added the MiLB Game Summary Report for yesterday. OKC< Tulsa, Great Lakes each won.

Josue De Paula just turned 18 (May 24). He is in first year full season A ball. He is batting .278/.377/.413/.790. In 146 PA, he has 23 K (15.8%) with 14 BB (9.6%). I would have to consider Josue De Paula as much of an untouchable as Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan.

Bobby

I agree. I don’t see him as some “lottery ticket” to seal a potential deal.

You want a lottery ticket? Go to the damn liquor store!

Dionysus

It all depends on whom we’re getting [Ohtani changes things], but generally speaking I think the untouchables are:

1. Miller–has to be; ace potential
2. Cartaya–AF just lives this kid; franchise type talent
3. DePaula–Why trade him now?
4. Sheehan–He’s able to help now; could relieve in postseason
5. Rushing–Too much bat to let go

Bluto

I wonder if there are lot more “untouchables” than we imagine.

Also, I’m not sure if Sheehan is one. From what I’ve read there’s still some question whether his FB heavy arsenal will endure as a starter.

Jeff Dominique

I am not sure that De Paula is “untouchable”. He would be for me. I do not know if there are any “untouchables” depending as to who the player to be acquired would be (Ohtani). With respect to Emmet Sheehan, I am not overly sure he will be a dominant starter, but he could be a lockdown closer as his floor.

Bluto

Interesting! I’ve always assumed there were “untouchable” prospects, but thinking about it now feels absurd.

indeed

Dionysus

DePaula isn’t untouchable for me, but others on the internet speak highly of him.

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