Yesterday I looked at the OF that have been drafted (or lack thereof) during the AF era. Today, I will focus on the SS.
In 2015, Jimmy Rollins was the SS, and Kiké Hernández was the backup at the MLB level. Corey Seager was a phone call away at OKC. There really was not much else. Hanley Ramirez was gone, and Kiké replaced Miguel Rojas.
In 2016 it was Corey Seager and Kiké. In 2017, Chris Taylor joined the team. When Seager got hurt in 2018, CT3 took over until Manny Machado was traded for. Why did they need to trade for Machado? He was an excellent option and the cost was not much at all. But the trade was necessary because there was no viable alternative in the MiLB system. Donovan Solano was the primary OKC SS. But he was a 30 year old AAAA player at the time. Maybe he could have stepped in, but the Dodgers were in the middle of a pennant race, and they did not think enough of Solano to bring him up when Seager went down.
As I did with the OF, I ask the question – How did it come to this? MLB Draft:
2015 –
2016 –
- Gavin Lux (Round #1)
- Errol Robinson (Round #6)
- Kevin Lachance (Round #10)
2017 –
2018 –
2019 –
2020 & 2021 – None
2022 –
- Alex Freeland (#3)
- Sean McLain (#5)
- Logan Wagner (#6)
- Jose Izarra (#14)
- Nicolas Perez (#15)
- Cameron Decker (#18)
International free agents include:
- Damaso Marte
- Omar Estevez
- Albert Suarez
- Yhostin Chirinos
- Eddys Leonard
- Amin Valdez
- Alex De Jesus
- Darol Garcia
- Wilman Diaz
- Rayne Doncon
There are multiple IFA that signed in January. How many will stay at SS?
We know Gavin Lux is more of a 2B who came up as a SS, and Jacob Amaya, who is not ready for prime time. Chris Taylor is still capable of being a back up SS. Of the IFA, Eddys Leonard at Great Lakes is the closest to MLB. Jorbit Vivas is more of a 2B, so I did not include him. Wilman Diaz is falling faster than Luis Rodriguez and Jeren Kendall. Can he turn it around? Of course he can, but to many he has fallen behind Rayne Doncon, and will probably fall behind some of the SS in Rookie League (DSL and ACL).
Technically Zac Ching is still in the LAD organization. But he is 25 and has not moved past High A. Deacon Liput is on the restricted list as he has not officially retired. He has not played since 2021.
Bottom line, the current LAD choices for 2023 SS are Gavin Lux, CT3, and Jacob Amaya. Gavin is more of a 2B, CT3 is more of a Swiss Army Knife, and Amaya, who is really not quite ready to assume the SS role for a championship caliber team. He may be later in the year if he shows he can put up some offense.
It is difficult to come up with a key player at a prominent position like SS, if the team does not draft one early in the draft. Before 2022, in the AF era, the Dodgers drafted two players in the top 10 rounds, and both in 2016 – Gavin Lux and Errol Robinson. They drafted three SS last year in the top 6 rounds.
I do think the Dodgers will be in on Trea Turner until he signs with Philadelphia. IMO, they are about as likely to sign any of the other 3 elite FA SS as they are to sign Aaron Judge or Jacob deGrom.
I would still like to see the Dodgers pursue Amed Rosario. The Guardians traded Francisco Lindor, so why wouldn’t they consider trading Rosario. They still have Andrés Giménez who can play SS.
Willy Adames has been a constant rumor. The Brewers are more likely to trade Kolten Wong. Could Wong be the 2B for Lux’s SS? I am guessing that both Detroit and Boston would like to get out from under their contracts for Javy Baez and Trevor Story respectively. But other than that, I cannot see any premier SS being available.
So Lux at SS and Taylor at 2B? That is probably not how it will start, but for right now, that is what the Dodgers middle infield look like.
Can the Dodgers be creative with tiering a long term contract for someone like Bogaerts?
Spotrac has us at $169m. You recently had us at $184m, not sure who that included. Aren’t we still at least $48 million from $232 million? That gives us room to sign Benintendi and Bogaerts and still have room for some Heaney and Anderson type moves. And if we’re still in on Turner, can’t we be in on Correa and Bogaerts?
If Scott Boras was not their agent then I would say yes. If AF had signed even one Boras FA I would not be so skeptical. I agree they can make it work financially and stay under the threshold. Even the journalistic experts are backing off on predicting any of the 4 signing with LAD. But maybe this year will be the year AF and Boras will get together. Highly unlikely is not the same as NO.
Well, I’m no fan of Bora$$, but it looks to me like this would be the year to sit down with him.
You mentioned Rosario. He’s another who falls into the classification of why would the team trade this guy. Even if available, big IF, a team controlled 4+ WAR middle infielder would cost way more than AF would want to pay. Since we can afford it, it seems easier to just sign a free agent. And as long as we decide on that, why not sign one of the three best available.
Why would Cleveland have traded Francisco Lindor? Because they knew they could not sign him after reaching FA. Rosario reaches FA after 2023. They know they cannot extend him, especially with Bieber reaching FA the following year. Cleveland is not the Dodgers. It is better for Cleveland to maximize their assets. Just like with Lindor, Clevinger, Bauer, Carrasco, Kluber, trading Rosario MAY (not necessarily will) maximize that use of that asset.
Rosario is not Lindor. Lindor and Carlos Carrasco cost the Mets, Amed Rosario, Andrés Giménez, and two non-rated lower tiered lottery tickets. Rosario would not cost nearly as much.
Nobody from the Cleveland Front Office has called me to tell me that Rosario is available. But if Lindor was, why wouldn’t Rosario be. Simply speculation on my part.
“why wouldn’t Rosario be”
Maybe because Rosario isn’t a $300 million player. No where near it. Cleveland has to keep somebody, that guy is a logical choice.
You guys seem to have all the math figured out, so that we can sign some more guys.
What if we do that in the next few weeks and then the arbitrator tells Bauer he can play this year. Add another 30+ mil to the payroll.
That is a song sung blue
Then AF can explain to Mark Walter that he f’d up. To not be so snarky, I do not think AF/BG can necessarily take the Bauer arbitration into consideration. They have to build the roster the best they can under the scenario the owners have given to them. Nobody knows what the arbitrator will decide, so assume he stays suspended. If the suspension is removed and the Dodgers eat the cost (whether he plays or not), they will need to suffer the financial consequences. But I do think this will have an impact on 9 figure FA deals going forward.
I don’t want Muncy at 2nd base.
I am not thrilled with Taylor at 2nd base.
I am willing to let Lux see what he can do at SS.
The Dodgers don’t have middle infield prospects at least not as many as they do outfielders.
Among existing Dodgers, I would be more comfortable with Lux and Betts as the middle infielders than I would be with Lux and anybody else at second.
Outman can play RF well enough defensively that we won’t miss Betts there. No, I didn’t read that somewhere.
Thompson can play CF well enough defensively that we won’t miss Bellinger there.
For the third year in a row we need a LFer. Maybe that will be Hanigar or Pollock. Hopefully not Taylor so he can play where he does best–bench army knife.
If the Dodgers go with a youth movement then I think they should definitely try to obtain Kelenic.
SS Lux
2B Betts
1B Freeman
C Smith
DH Muncy/Taylor
3B Vargas
LF Hanigar/Pollock
CF Thompson/Kelenic
RF Outman
Urias, Gonsolin, Kershaw, May, Stone, Pepiot, Miller, Grove
One or two years down the road the Dodgers will need to replace Urias and Kershaw and Gonsolin plus Thompson, Muncy, Taylor, and Hanigar/Pollock.
If Vargas sticks at third, Busch can replace Muncy as DH and share it with Smith and Cartaya, the latter replacing Barnes. Pages can replace Hanigar/Pollock in LF. Amaya would replace Taylor. May, Stone, Pepiot, Sheehan, and Miller will be the core rotation.
I’m still hopeful for a Trea Turner signing but I think he wants to bat lead-off wherever he goes. His speed will be that much more an asset with the larger bases and no shift.
I don’t want Lux at short. His slingshot throws to first make my head spin.
I wonder if one of the reasons Anderson chose the Angels was because he didn’t like the way he was removed in that last playoff game by Dave Robots.
I am sure that being removed did not help, but I think that the 3rd year that AF/BG were not willing to give Anderson played a much bigger role. A better question might be, why didn’t LAD offer TA the third year?
But I do like your name for the LAD manager…Dave Robots. 😂
I heard he wanted to tell his grandkids he played with Mike Trout.
Good stuff Jeff. I for one am not sold that Lux is an everyday SS in the major leagues. I know the kid can hit, but I still think his throws are better from second than from SS. We all know Amaya has a great glove, but everyone is also unsure about his bat. I have to believe they will either trade for a SS, or sign a lower tier SS as a free agent to give Amaya one more full year to develop.
Sign a 5-6 WAR SS and everything else falls into place.
Amaya’s arm isn’t that much better than Lux’s.
You could very well be right, but what are you basing this on? At least Statcast has made an attempt at grading arm strength. Based on their metric, for all MLB 2B measured, Lux is 67th out of 78 in terms of MPH. 2B throws range from 90.4 to 72.7. Lux is 76.4. Last year he was measured with a 79.4 MPH at SS in 292 throws.
This is what Baseball America says about Amaya’s defense, especially his arm:
Scouting Report: Amaya is a gifted defensive shortstop with elite instincts for the position. He is always in the right place, secures every ball with his soft, reliable hands and makes every throw with his plus, accurate arm. He’s not the rangiest or flashiest defender, but he makes every play and is elite at nuances such as tags and relays.
You say that Amaya’s arm is not that much better than Lux’s. I am not saying you are wrong, but Statcast and BA might differ with your analysis.
I compared arm strengths in comments a few posts ago and I think I was comparing Lux’ arm with Trea and a few other shortstops. I might not have included Amaya afterall.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2021&minThrows=50&pos=&team=119
Lux is really close to Seager and better than Trea.
All shortstops arm strength
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2022&minThrows=100&pos=arm_ss&team=
That metric is for SS, and Lux did not have enough throws to qualify. Here is 2B which Lux is 60 out of 70 with 100 throws minimum.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2022&minThrows=100&pos=arm_2b&team=
League Average for a 2B was 81.0. Lux was at 76.4.
Your first above link is for all positions which included Lux as an OF which increased his overall MPH. Below is the link for 2021 SS. The MLB average was 84.7 for SS, and all four LAD SS were below average:
Trea Turner – 82.1
Corey Seager – 80.4
Chris Taylor – 80.4
Gavin Lux – 79.4
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2021&minThrows=100&pos=arm_ss&team=
I am not sure what any of that means except that the Dodgers will miss out on more bang-bang plays at 1B and probably less DP’s than the average middle infielder. I suppose that becomes more of an issue if the offense does not score enough runs this year.
The Dodgers have been good defensively because of their positioning and use of the shift. This may become more of an issue in 2023.
BTW, Masyn Winn has the best SS arm in all of professional baseball. Here is a story on Cardinals SS prospect:
https://www.mlb.com/news/cardinals-prospect-masyn-winn-futures-game-throw#:~:text=Cards%20prospect%20Winn%20unleashes%20100.5%20mph%20throw%20…%20from%20short!,-July%2016th%2C%202022&text=MLB%20Pipeline%20gave%20Masyn%20Winn,darts%20in%20Minor%20League%20Baseball.
There is another story in Baseball America for 2021 which lists all of 6 SS throws > 92.0 MPH by MLB SS, with Tatis having 3 of them. His high was 93.1. Winn had 15 throws > 92.0 and 9 at least at 93.1 (MLB high).
I am not sure what it means either. Take another look at the links I shared. You may have only looked at the column that showed overall average. There are other columns that show arm strength when at various positions such as SS or 2nb base.
For those who were hoping the Dodgers would change their hitting coaches, the Marlins just hired Brant Brown.
RVS is still with us but Brown is leaving.
I just read that. They actually had 3 coaches who concentrated on hitting, the other is Aaron Bates who is listed as the assistant hitting coach.
Brant Brown has left the Dodgers to become the hitting coach of the Miami Marlins. I guess Aaron Bates now moves up to co-hitting coach with RVS.
No big loss. Maybe with less instructions and more practice, they will improve
Maybe adding Brown will give the Marlins a leg up on signing Bellinger.
Does anybody need me to flag that comment as sarcasm?
This is an interesting read:
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=22
If we started playing today, looks like we’re maybe a second place team.
MLBTR says Dodgers have a meeting with Justin Verlander today.
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MLBTR reporting that the Astros are going to sign Jose Abreu.