Before we start Game 4 of the WS:
Here are the seedings of this year’s MLB playoffs.
#1 Seed – Atlanta – 104
#2 Seed – Dodgers – 100
#3 Seed – Milwaukee – 92
#4 Seed – Philadelphia – 90
#5 Seed – Miami – 84
#6 Seed – Arizona – 84
#1 Seed – Baltimore – 101
#2 Seed – Houston – 90
#3 Seed – Minnesota – 87
#4 Seed – Tampa Bay – 99
#5 Seed – Texas – 90
#6 Seed – Toronto – 89
There were only 8 teams with 90 or more wins to make the playoffs. That leaves 4 teams with less than 90 wins. The WS has a #5 seed (Texas) facing a #6 seed Arizona. As I predicted (and a lot of others) very few are turning to watch the WS. Game 1 drew an audience of just 9.17 million viewers. That is the worst year ever. The previous low? Game 2 of the 2020 series played in the bubble drew 9.184 million viewers.
Neither participant had the type of year that would excite potential viewers. While I do like many of the players, there is no Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuña Jr., Julio Rodriguez, or Mike Trout. Of the top 20 jersey sales, only Corey Seager (#14) was in the top 20 from either team in the WS. So who is going to get viewers to watch?
Neither WS teams draw in their own stadiums. Texas was #16 in attendance with 2.53 million, while Arizona was #20 with 1.96 million. When the Dodgers played in Arizona, at least half the stadium was filled with LAD fans.
So is it really that surprising that nobody is watching this series? Joe Davis is doing his best to generate player interest by trying to make Corbin Carroll a household name. I think Carroll will eventually get there, but he is not there yet.
So MLB is putting on their show with two of the least known teams in MLB and Rob Manfred thinks it is an overwhelming success. I am sure the network sponsors do not agree.
I know the MLBPA does not agree. They never wanted to expand the playoffs in the first place. Owners see that they can get into the playoffs by playing just over .500 baseball. Two teams had 84-78 records, and one of them is in the WS. So what will be the owners’ impetus to have a huge payroll, if it is not needed? This was the MLBPA’s big concern. My eyes will be on Baltimore. They need top pitching and they have the ability to acquire it. Via trade or FA. Will they spend or are they okay with 101 wins and a playoff appearance?
If the Dodgers believed they could fill the stadium with only a 90 win team and still make the playoffs, what is their incentive to sign big $$$ free agents. We already have Stan (winning the Division is all I care about) Kasten saying attendance dictates that the LAD fans are fine with winning during the season and crapping out in the playoffs.
After all, the playoffs are only a crapshoot, or so we are told. 1 in 6 odds? That is like saying in a twelve horse race, the odds should be 1in12 for all 12 horses. The last two years, the odds have been stacked against the top two teams in each League. Two out of eight bye teams reached the LCS (Houston both years), and then one in four made the WS (Houston in 2022).
Change the Wild Card games to one game, and have them play on Tuesday after the season. Make the Wild Card winners face the bye teams on Wednesday. Best of 5 with no days off in the Divisional Series. Then the odds of the best teams during the regular season are in a much better position to reach the LCS. Only two days off before the LDS and the Wild Card team only has one game and no day off after the win. This would also give teams incentive to bring on stars, making it much less of a crapshoot.
This will never happen as TV will never allow it. TV could care less whether the regular season should count for something. More games and more days off to spread those games out. But MLB competition committee sure should.
So why spend $600MM on a DH and a questionable elbow? No incentive for LAD, especially when the team has the largest attendance and by a large margin. LAD 550K over the #2 attendance, SDP.
Most avid LAD fans are split. Some are fine with the Dodgers always being competitive and making the playoffs every year, while others believe that success is determined by only winning the WS. Most non-LAD fans believe the 2020 WS did not count, and that they have not won a WS in a full season since 1988, now reaching 45 years. Many LAD fans also fall into that category. As the years move on, that belief will only become more prominent.
Andrew Heaney vs Joe Mantiply as the starting pitchers in Game 4. Two bullpen games in the WS? How will this drive viewership? How will this drive interest from the young fans that will be needed for the future viewership.
Game 4 on Halloween night? Remember when the WS did not have to compete against Halloween as the WS was over before the end of October? TV and TV revenue is dictating how the playoff schedule should play out. The smaller market team owners have no problem, as their biggest revenue source by far is TV revenue. Winning is secondary to revenues, and revenues that will not be spent on player personnel.
Again, Rob Manfred considers this a success. I am a baseball fan, and I will watch the WS regardless as to who is playing. I love watching future stars on the big stage…Evan Carter, Corbin Carroll, Josh Jung, Gabriel Moreno, Geraldo Perdomo, Brandon Pfaadt.
Elsewhere I came across this gem from Jerry Hairston Jr. on Mookie and the playoffs:
“I think maybe he was a little tired,” Hairston Jr. said. “We know he bulked up last offseason, gained about 8-10 pounds of muscle so he could be stronger in the second half and he had an incredible August. He got so hot, not only was he so hot, he was always on base. And when you’re always on base, always scoring runs plus you’re asked to play right field, shortstop, second base, you’re constantly moving, it can be draining and taxing – not just mentally, but also physically. I want to say maybe he was a little gassed. … We may need to look at that going forward, maybe giving him some rest in September to make sure he’s completely fresh because he uses his entire body to generate so much force in that swing.”
This goes into the ever growing column of why can’t players play hard for 162 games with more days off than ever? Why is there so much platooning? Why can’t pitchers throw 200 innings anymore? And the owners want expansion to dilute the talent base even more? Of course they do because the expansion fee will be extensive for the owners.
Finally, there is this encounter between Mookie and Corey.
Mookie Betts & Corey Seager share an exchange after Game 3 of the World Series‼️
Old Dodgers teammates reunited💙
🎥: @MLB pic.twitter.com/lZNrXXNMse
— Dodgers Nation (@DodgersNation) October 31, 2023
Yesterday, Dave wrote:
2015:
· Dansby Swanson – #1
· Alex Bregman – #2
· Brendan Rodgers – #3
· Kyle Tucker – #6
· Andrew Benintendi – #7
· Ian Happ – #9
Dodgers did well with Walker Buehler at 24.
2016: Not a very good year for top prospects. Dodgers pick at #20 Gavin Lux, and Will Smith at #32. This was a good year for the Dodgers, maybe because it was a bad year overall.
2017:
· Royce Lewis – #1
· Hunter Greene – #2
· MacKenzie Gore – #3
Dodgers pick at 23, Jeren Kendall. The Dodgers could not develop Jeren Kendall.
2018:
· Casey Mize – 1
· Joey Bart – 2
· Alec Bohm – 3
· Nick Madrigal – 4
· Jonathan India – 5
· Jarred Kelenic – 6
· Grayson Rodriguez – 11
Dodgers pick at #30, J.T. Ginn who they chose over Shane McClanahan (mistake, big mistake). Ginn did not sign with LAD.
2019:
· Adley Rutschman – 1
· Bobby Witt Jr. – 2
· Andrew Vaughn – 3
· JJ Bleday – 4
· Nick Lodolo – 7
· Josh Jung – 8
· Corbin Carroll – 16
· George Kirby – 20
Dodgers pick at 25 was Kody Hoese and 30 with Michael Busch. They passed on Gunnar Henderson even though more publications than not picked him for the Dodgers at #1.
2020:
· Spencer Torkelson – 1
· Heston Kjerstad – 2
· Max Meyer – 3
· Emerson Hancock – 6
· Reid Detmers – 10
· Garrett Crochet – 11
· Pete Crow Armstrong – 19
· Jordan Walker – 21
The Dodgers did very well at 29 with Bobby Miller.
2021:
· Henry Davis – 1
· Jack Leiter – 2
· Marcelo Meyer – 4
· Colton Cowser – 5
· Jordan Lawler – 6
· Andrew Painter – 13
· Matt McLain – 17
· Colson Montgomery – 22
The Dodgers reached at #29 with Maddux Bruns. Four of the above have already reached MLB, while a couple of others could make the jump in 2024. Bruns is at least 2 years before he will be considered. His command is still not very good, and that is at A+.
2022:
· Jackson Holliday
· Druw Jones
· Termarr Johnson
· Elijah Green
· Cade Horton
· Brooks Lee
· Kevin Parada
· Jace Jung
· Zach Neto
Dodgers pick at #40 was Dalton Rushing. There is nobody who can convince me that Rushing is anywhere close to reaching the heights that Jackson Holliday figures to reach. Holliday is considered to break camp with the Orioles as the starting SS next spring…at 20 years old.
2023:
· Paul Skenes – 1
· Dylan Crews – 2
· Max Clark – 3
· Wyatt Langford – 4
· Walter Jenkins – 5
· Nolan Schanuel – 11
· Tommy Troy – 12
The Dodgers drafted Kendall George at #36. I cannot think of any LAD fan who believes Kendall George will be better a MLB player than any of the above.
Dodgers development? Since the AF era, the Dodgers have one position player reach the All Stars (Will Smith) and two pitchers (Walker Buehler – twice, and Tony Gonsolin). The Dodgers have three AF era players making the regular lineup since being drafted.. Gavin Lux and Will Smith (2016) and James Outman (2018). The pitchers have done better, but they do not seem to stay healthy. They have not had one IFA stick, although Miguel Vargas did get close.
Nobody says the Dodgers do not have an advantage at developing depth. So many of their draft picks have reached MLB, though as role/bench, utility, and platoon players. But elite players? There is no question (IMO) that the top 10 draft picks (sometimes up to 20) have a far better chance at becoming elite players than where the Dodgers pick. This year, the Dodgers will pick #28. They will not lose 10 slots this year as they did the last two years.
Agree with Jeff’s thesis here.
It’s not that there aren’t 30 good players every year. The issue is that there’s rarely five REALLY, REALLY good players every year.
There are MANY really good players in every draft. You just have to be good at uncovering gems.
Yeah, I don’t agree with this.
Obviously there are outliers (like Piazza if the PEDs aren’t real), but for the most of the players chosen later. They need development, the right organization, the right managers, etc.
As an example, this information is from 2021 All Star Game:
“Of the 30 selected outside of the first round, 13 were taken in Rounds 2-5, and 17 after that.”
Seems like a lot to me. Gems are available outside the first round. We’ve seen the Dodgers pass up on some, and trade others early. They do have a high success rate, I read it once, second to the Astros I think, but a lot of players they drafted that made it play for some other team.
Hmmm.
I’m not sure if I am right or bull-headed on this one.
On one side I think this makes my point, how many of those 30 All-Star players would you label as great? How many are like: Zunino, Merifield, Joey Gallo, Matt Barnes, Muncy, Frazier, Mark Melancon…..
on the other side, there’s a lot of players like Altuve and betts!
It is easier to draft a good player with a top 5 pick and it gets riskier after that.
Kansas City is close to #30 in payroll, attendance, winning percentage, and doesn’t have a single prospect listed in the MLB top 100.
I didn’t say great. I said really good. All Stars are, in my opinion, really good.
Of course gems are available outside the first round. But there is far more of a likelihood that the first round will produce more elite players than the later rounds. Jacob deGrom was a 9th round pick.
Who do you think will have a better MLB career, Jackson Holliday or Dalton Rushing?
I am drawing the distinction between elite players and good players. Difference makers. Like Corey Seager, who could very well win his second WS MVP.
Being an All Star does not make one elite. Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, Tyler Anderson, Tony Gonsolin, Brent Rooker, Carlos Estévez have all been All Stars. But elite players make multiple All Stars and get a lot of MVP considerations. You are right…that is Mookie and Freddie for LAD. Neither drafted by LAD.
I also make the distinction between making it to MLB and being a regular in the lineup. If the Dodgers are satisfied with drafting players that become role players for other teams, that does not make the Dodgers a better team on the field. I for one am not satisfied. Not that I could do better, but I am not making $7MM/year to do so. Zach McKinstry, Dean Kremer, Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty, Luke Raley, Willie Calhoun, Josh Sborz, Kyle Garlick, Devin Smeltzer, Jordan Sheffield, Mitch White, DJ Peters, Andre Scrub, AJ Alexy, Zach Pop, Connor Wong, Jacob Amaya, Rylan Bannon, Zach Reks, Andre Jackson…were all drafted in the AF era. They have all made MLB rosters, but they could not make the Dodgers. Which player drafted and signed by LAD in the AF era has gone on to become a regular for any other team.
Outside of Yordan Alvarez, I am not aware of one IFA signed in the AF era who is a regular on any MLB roster. Oneil Cruz will be the second once he is injury free. Miguel Vargas was given 2B this year, but could not hold it. Yusniel Diaz got a good chance with Baltimore, but could not push through. He is now playing AA with LAD.
Remember that none of Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Kenley Jansen were signed by the AF regime. Neither was Yasiel Puig. Of those drafted and signed, Will Smith is the only position player to become an All Star, while Walker Buehler (twice) and Tony Gonsolin (once) have done so as pitchers. We have no idea that Buehler and his twice surgically repaired elbow can re-attain All Star status.
IMO, it is going to become more difficult for Smith to be named again. With JT Realmuto, Sean Murphy, Gabriel Moreno, Francisco Alvarez, Tyler Stephenson, Keibert Ruiz, Luis Campusano, and both Contreras brothers in the NL, that is a lot of catcher talent to leap over.
IMO Gavin Lux could become an All Star 2B, but he is not going to be an All Star SS. Gasparino under AF passed on Bo Bichette four times in 2016 when he selected Lux. He also drafted Smith, Jordan Sheffield, and Mitch White before Bichette was taken by Toronto. They also drafted Kody Hoese and Michael Busch in 2019, before Gunnar Henderson when Henderson was linked to LAD. They also passed on Shane McClanahan when drafting JT Ginn in 2018. So yes they have missed. You can go through all of the MLB Draft trackers and see how EVERY team has missed. But those three mentioned above, Bichette, Henderson, and McClanahan, I said the Dodgers should draft them BEFORE the draft. And absolutely not, do I think I am better than Billy Gasparino. But the Dodgers could do worse and just let Marty Lamb select the draft picks from those that he has scouted.
Bichette, Henderson, and McClanahan represent a small sample size and Jeff, you might have drafted more poorly than Gasparino did for other selections but those three is evidence you are better draft picker than Gasparino. Granted if you had all the information Gasparino had you might have agreed with his choice.
I would be just fine if you had the final say regarding who the Dodgers drafted.
As I said, there are many All Stars drafted outside the first round. You just have to be good at uncovering gems.
The good news is the Dodgers haven’t had a high first round pick in years. The bad news is, the Dodgers always pick at the bottom of the first round.
I’ll give you that AF hasn’t done a great job with uncovering gems, but the Dodgers can sign them in free agency. They are also pretty good at developing a supporting cast.
I feel lucky to have a team this good every year. Having been a fan since ‘59 I’ve lived through many years where I couldn’t say that.
Great response here
It would be nice to be able to draft in the top 3 but my pt is that there are still really good players at #30 and condsidering international players as well I’m just not ready to use our low draft picks as an excuse. The Astericks lost draft picks as punishment for cheating and they still have a decent farm system. Btw they also had the xtra days off and still managed to do well in the post season.
An additional factor is draft strategy. Pick the best athletes? pick the highest ranked player available? pick the best available player at a position of need? Draft a low slot player and count on our development system? Draft pitchers to use as trade chips? Etc Scouting and player development are essential.
When did Kasten say that about division titles?
I still like Doubleheaders as games 2&3 (if necessary) of the Wildcard round.
In a January 26, 2019 LA Times article by Dylan Hernández, after an interview with Kasten:
After watching the Dodgers reach the World Series in each of the last two seasons, fans aren’t about to abandon their team over an uninspiring offseason. But they do want the team to do more and some of them made their voices heard.
Such concerns were likely downplayed by team President Stan Kasten, who dismissed concerns over the team as “anecdotal,” even fictional.
“You keep making this stuff up,” Kasten said. “I’m dealing with facts.”
The facts, Kasten said, are that season-ticket sales point to the Dodgers leading baseball in attendance again. And if season tickets are selling, everything must be A-OK. (Emphasis mine)
At best, Kasten and Dodgers ownership are mistaking loyalty for satisfaction. At worst, they are taking advantage of their customers’ intense devotion.
Asked again if he didn’t want to offer fans an explanation for the team’s relative inactivity on the free-agent market, Kasten said,
“You’re inventing a narrative that I don’t agree with because, like I said, I can almost tell you for sure, we’re going to lead the National League in attendance again. You’re inventing a different universe that is not borne out by reality, by facts.” (Emphasis mine)
Right, because the fan base is limited to the people who can afford their tickets.
He did agree that fans demanded stars. But in his opinion:
“I’ll tell you what they like better than free-agent stars and I absolutely will show you proof of this. They like homegrown kids that develop into stars. They like that better. And there’s no team that has focused more on that aspect of our program than us.”
I do not necessarily disagree that fans prefer homegrown talent, but then you have to spend to keep them. What is he saying to the fan base when the Dodgers do not re-sign Corey Seager? Or how Cody Bellinger was summarily non-tendered. ROY, 2 X All Star, MVP. Why? Because the Dodgers hitting coaches could not figure out Cody’s hitting mechanics? Or that he was fighting through injuries still (a Scott Boras conjecture)? BTW, after all that Belli has accomplished, he is only 22 months older than James Outman. Would the Dodgers have been better with this year’s Belli in CF over Outman? Or are we convinced that RVS and Aaron Bates had no clue how to fix Bellinger and he would not have replicated his Cubs year with LAD?
A lot of inferring, I know. But Kasten continued to make the key point that attendance was the qualifier as to what LAD’s strategies should be. Then when recognizing that Stan Kasten won 12 Division Championships as President of the Atlanta Braves and has won 10 Division Championships as President of the Los Angeles Dodgers, but only 2 WS championships, yes I am inferring that division championships put butts in the seats, and that is what he is focused…attendance.
Braves and Dodgers are 1 and 2 in Division Championships with 23 and 21 respectively.
There have been multiple articles since then that have the same focus. Here is that article, and you can draw your own conclusions. They may very well be different than mine.
https://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers-friedman-hernandez-20190126-story.html
I have no clue. The quotes are too flimsy and without context for me to try and read anything different from what you did/do.
I mean he’s seemingly only talking about pursuing free agents not about how he values World Serieses, but his words are his words.
I wish there were more.
I also hope that Kasten isn’t involved (beyond setting budgets) in the decisions pertaining to Bellinger or Seager, but maybe I’m naive.
B.I. S. That is Kasten’s job.
Major League Baseball is a business. To look at it any other way is just, well, naive.
Shut up, enjoy the summer, and keep drinking the over priced beer.
Rest toward the end of the season? I believe I had that one.
$600 million for Ohtani? I don’t think so.
Picking at the bottom of each round means the Dodgers just have to be better at scouting than everyone else. They also have to do well with international signings.
A bullpen game in the World Series. Not working out so far.
I did not invent the $600MM. That is what was being reported. It will be north of $500MM and maybe south of $600MM because of the surgery. Reports already say that he would command more than Aaron Judge just for his offense, even with the surgery. That is a nine year $360MM deal. Judge gets that because, well, he is Aaron Judge with a huge fan and marketing magnet. But he is dwarfed in that regard by Ohtani. Ohtani is an international marketing magnet. So the reports I have read say that he is worth at least $400MM for offense, who can actually play LF.
Now comes the harder part, how much of a pitcher is he worth? He is at least worth Carlos Rodón $$$ even after the surgery. 6 years, $162MM ($27MM/year). Without the surgeries, maybe he is worth Zack Greinke, 6 years $206.5MM ($34.4MM/year). That is somewhere between $550MM and $600MM. Maybe $250MM for 10 years?
Just using 10 years as a base, if Ohtani is worth $400MM for his offense, and he is worth between $162MM and $250MM for pitching, that puts him at between $562MM and $650MM. Or between $56.2MM/year and $65MM/year.
So where would you draw the line, Badger? More importantly, where do you think the Dodgers owners will draw the line?
IMO, they will offer him a deal similar to what Bryce Harper turned down…low years, high AAV. 3-4 year deal at about $60MM/year. I would prefer that they offer a one year offense only deal and then add on multiple years with reachable vesting targets to take the salary to what might be expected. Something similar to Kenta Maeda’s deal only MUCH MUCH MUCH larger.
But IMO, the Giants will not be outbid.
Whoever gets him gets at least 5 years of 5-6 WAR. His offense is worth that. There’s no guarantee he will ever pitch again, I think he will, but at age 32 with a lot of miles and two TJ surgeries, I doubt he’s ever as good as he was this year.
The Dodgers don’t need his drawing power. They have that in spades already. That said, I think he’s a perfect fit in LA. His NIL value, and business connections probably already made here, will be worth as much, or maybe more, than his contract. He’s closer to home on the West Coast. It’s a better fit here than SF. Sell LA big time!
So where do I draw the line? Not real sure, but I’ll throw something out. Give him a Mookie deal plus 10%. 12 years, $425 million. Stagger it. AAV of $35m. That helps the club surround him with more better players.
If he wants the money without the business connections LA offers, and some idiot wants to pay him $600 million, then he goes there. Probably won’t have a chance at a championship, but heck, he’s used to that. He’s been in Anaheim for several years.
That has been my point that the Dodgers do not need Ohtani for what his largest value is…putting butts in seats. That being said, I can also see Ohtani being marketed internationally. Seeing LAD Ohtani jerseys all over the globe will go a long way at increasing the value of LAD which is what drives the owners.
If Ohtani would sign for $425MM, $35MM AAV would be 12 years. Very similar to Mookie. I do believe the Dodgers would jump at that. I just believe it will be beaten by at lest two and probably more teams. I would like to see Ohtani in Dodger Blue, but I think he is more likely to end up in SF Orange. Zaidi lost out on Harper, Judge, and Correa. He does not want to be beaten again. I hope I am wrong.
Seager’s WS performance might be driving up the cost for Ohtani.
Not me. My good friend is in Phoenix and assumes I’m watching. Keeps texting me!
Rooting hard for the offseason
Jack Harris talking about what has been discussed here since the season ended. Sounds like he may read the blogs to get ideas.
His take today is Ohtani is target 1A and Yamamoto might be the best fit for target 1B. The DH will work itself out, Heyward and Kiké make some sense. Arenado Urshela, Pham, and Verdugo are mentioned as are Nola, Burnes, Snell, Glasnow, Giolito, Flaherty, Gray, Montgomery etc. Nothing new really. No mention of Lee, but Ohtani, Yamamoto and Lee seem like great moves to me. The Dodgers can afford it. The giants, Padres and Mets are reportedly in on all those guys.
In the last five instances a team has thrown a bullpen game in the LCS or World Series, they’ve averaged nine hits and seven runs allowed.
The D-backs became the latest team to experience a bullpen game meltdown. Now, the Rangers are one win from a title.
“Now, the Rangers are one win from a title.”
I’m not at all surprised by this. What would be surprising is if the small ball dbacks win 3 in a row.
I love the way Arizona plays baseball, when it works. But I still strongly believe slugging, OPS+, and of course pitching, is the way to win in today’s MLB.
Bullpen games are a new thing that happens occasionally in a long grueling season. To use them in a 7 game series screams you lack starting pitching.
I hope for a 7 game series here, but I’m prepared for the off season to begin before that happens.
Ratings are down across the board. I have watched about 10 minutes. I watched Leclerc close down game 3 and that has been it. I have zero rooting interest. I was more intrigued by the Clippers trading for James Harden. Does that guy piss off people everywhere he goes? He hasn’t been happy anywhere. Clippers are his fifth team.
I find basketball almost unwatchable. There’s nary innovation on offense (all pick and roll) or defense.
that said, no player embodies the star-determinate era of the NBA than Harden.
I find myself there too Bluto. My friend in Sedona, a long time Warriors fan, called the NBA ‘Gangsta Ball’. Too many unlikable characters, with Harden being at or near the top of that list.
You guys are over the hill. Basketball unwatchable? lol. Try watching Curry.
I’m suggesting the following trade:
Logan White for Billy Gasparino.
Most of the position players we love and miss were drafted by White when he worked for the Dodgers.
In fairness to Gasparino, within the next couple of years his scorecard on pitchers might turn out better than White’s. Maybe we just need to have them both here.
Just came across this article from 2019 which gives details about White’s early life that I was never aware of. He came from very humble beginnings. I think we made a big mistake letting him leave to go to the Padres. He was responsible for drafting a large number of our best players in the 2000’s.
And one last thing that surprised me. AJ Preller actually worked in the Dodger front office for 3 years, shortly after graduating from college in the early 2000’s. That’s where he and Logan met.
Here’s the link for those who are interested:
Painful childhood helped shape critical Padres cog Logan White – The San Diego Union-Tribune (sandiegouniontribune.com)
https://theathletic.com/5015723/2023/11/01/mlb-free-agency-pitcher-projections?source=user-shared-article
A really interesting article for those who subscribe (behind a paywall).
Yamamoto is going to be very expensive…………….but not if you compare him to Ohtani.
Excellent piece. And those numbers sound ridiculous, especially for unknown and aging pitchers.
I wonder if the Dodgers will go all in on one somebody, sprinkle in a few that Prior can work with, and trust our young pitchers, many of whom have ML experience.
MLBTR just reported that the Padres had to take out a $50MM loan to make payroll this year and that they are looking to reduce payroll by $50MM in 2024.
They need to reduce payroll to about $200MM. The loan they took out put them in perilous territory with their debt to revenue coverage, and MLB is in contact with them. I continue to say that we have no idea what the Dodgers can afford on an annual basis because we have no idea what their debt is. They have already been told once to get their payroll under control. The Dodgers have had an operating profit, albeit a small one (estimated by Forbes). So they are in total compliance. What a $300MM payroll would do, we have no idea.
The odds that Soto is still a Padre in February are getting smaller by the minute.
No to Snell. No to Hader. They currently have 12 players under contract for $209MM. That does not include 7 arbitration eligible players (including Soto estimated at $33MM). Other arbitration estimates – Scott Barlow – $7.1MM, Trent Grisham $4.9MM, Tim Hill $2.4MM, Austin Nola 2.35MM. Multiple non tender candidates.
Their goal is to add 14 players for -$9MM. I know there are a lot of LAD fans who do not like Fernando Tatis Jr., but I am not one of them. I doubt that San Diego would trade him and more importantly not trade him to LAD, but I would like to see AF check into Tatis.
Tatis only makes $11.7m next year, $20.7m the year after. His contract is insane – over 36 million for 5 years after 35. Of course that may be a bargain by that time.
I had no idea their financial situation. Seidler is worth $3 billion. Can’t he bail himself out?
His worth could be inflated with assets with high net worth but little liquidity. His share in the Padres could be his biggest asset in the $3B, but he isn’t going to get the $3B unless he sells his share. Not easily sold. I have no idea what other assets he has that he could leverage. It appears that the Padres leverage is maxed out.
Example – (Very simple admittedly) – You bought a house 10 years ago at $500K. You put $100K down and borrowed $400K at 2%. The house is now worth $1.5MM. On paper, that person is a millionaire, but you are not going to borrow against the equity at 7.5%.
So unless I can see what the balance sheet looks like, I cannot say what the Padres or Dodgers can do.
Second, just having the funds to invest is not relevant unless he can provide it to the organization. He just cannot throw money into the coffers. That would dilute the other partners’ shares, and the other partners would probably not allow their shares to be diluted. The Padres would need to make a partner call, and not all partners have the capacity to come up with the funds requested.
So that 100 K made you a million in 10 years. Is that better than 7.5%? Will it make another million in 10:more years?
I don’t understand that kind of money. I’ve lived humbly most of my life. I know you’re right because that’s what you did in your career.
Clearly this was the year the Padres were supposed to win to the end. Didn’t happen. I’m not sorry for them.
So, the window is closing?
For those of you who spend time on Baseball Trade Values, they’ve completely redone the site with lots of upgrades, including two new subscription tiers (but for us cheapskates we can still access the regular stuff at N/C). And the regular stuff has been made a lot faster.
https://t.co/nvmXgr0t67
This announcement seems to coincide with what I have said about LAD’s interest in Ohtani as international marketing strategy. I can see that happening.
Yep. LA. Name, image, license. Worth a billion. Ohtani Dodgers shirts around the globe. I’d wear one if one of you was to send it to me. Fred? Jefe? Bluto? Jeff? Buehler? If not Ohtani, Buehler? I’d wear it too.
I’d send it to you if you gave me the money to pay for it. I’ll spring for the postage.
That won’t work for me. Tell you what, send the shirt and I promise I’ll owe you the money plus some vigorish for your trouble.
I wonder what would be more valuable, an Ohtani Dodger jersey if he signs with us or an Ohtani Dodger jersey if he signs with somebody else?
Kinda like a stamp printed upside down………………sort of.
Congratulations Texas Rangers!
Welcome to the off season. If you’re a Dodger fan, the off season is much more exciting and interesting than the post season.
We may not get the parade this year but I think we should be allowed a march around the block.
This year’s champs featured Seager (WS MVP), Sborz (got the last out) and Eovaldi (pitched 6 scoreless innings and has a 10-1 record in the post season). All former Dodgers. You’re welcome, Texas.
I wonder if Bochy is going to start another every-other-year streak, but this time in odd numbered years?