IMO, because the playoffs have been expanded to 12 teams there are a great many more teams that believe they can be the next Arizona D-backs or Baltimore Orioles. I would include Texas except they have spent north of $600MM the last two years in FA, but the bulk of their core is home grown or early career trades.
Being honest, while they did get some very timely hitting in October, Arizona built their team on speed, defense, and a rebuilt bullpen. They only had two SP going into the playoffs, and Brandon Pfaadt found himself to make it three. Arizona did it in a very tough NL West.
Both Central Divisions are winnable by all five teams Yes even Pittsburgh and KC. If Arizona can win with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as the two known starters, why can’t Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech be that duo for CWS. At least they want to start the year with a chance, and see if Michael Soroka or Jared Shuster can give them 4 very reliable October pitchers. If not, Cease can be moved at the deadline.
Same in Milwaukee. Are the Brewers out of it with Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Wade Miley. They believe very highly in Adrian Houser, and Colin Rea has been on the verge of stardom for a while. CWS and Milwaukee have their Aces. They are in no hurry to get rid of theirs.
Detroit could be this year’s D-backs and sneak into the playoffs. I have brought his name up a lot the last two years, but they have Tarik Skubal who could be in the CY discussions by the end of the year. He is backed up with Kenta Maeda and Matt Manning in their rotation. And they are hoping for a clean injury free year from their uber pitching prospect, Casey Mize. Why not run it out to see where they are in late July.
KC believes they are close enough to challenge in the AL Central. Cole Ragans has become their Ace. They are looking for a bounce back year from Brady Singer and an injury free year for Daniel Lynch. All three are former 1st round picks. They have $30MM to spend, and they can find some decent pitching with that. They are hoping that their 24 year old Venezuelan LHSP, Angel Zerpa, finally emerges this year. And they have Jordan Lyles to eat innings.
Cleveland has more pitching than they know what to do with. Well they do know what to do with it, but they just cannot find that OF with slug. Forget what the trade simulator says. The simulator says that Maddux Bruns (5.7) straight up for Shane Bieber (5.8) is fair. I read somewhere that the Dodgers should include Jose Ramos in a package. Why? If a team wants him and believes he can make a difference at the MLB level, then they will wait until the Rule 5 draft and take him for $100K. Deluca? Cleveland wants an everyday difference making OF not another platoon OF. They could go back and sign Michael Brantley on a return, and keep Bieber. I cannot see AF trading Andy Pages straight up for Shane Bieber, much less packaging him. Bieber is not in the Burnes, Cease, Glasnow aisle.
As I said yesterday, I quit trying to noodle what Tampa Bay might do. It is possible that they will trade 1 or two of Tyler Glasnow, Isaac Paredes, and Randy Arozarena. I have heard that Brandon Lowe is also available. The AL East is a lot different than the AL Central. It is going to be hard for TB to stay near the top without McClanahan and with Toronto, Baltimore, NYY, and Boston all looking for significant improvements. They do have Shane Baz coming back, but how good will he be first year back? I can see Caleb Ferguson going to TB in a trade. He has shown he can be a decent opener, something TB loves to employ. TB has one catcher on the 40 man, and no real catcher prospect. Their only catcher prospect on their top 30 is in High A (Dominic Keegan #9). Austin Barnes would be a perfect back up catcher for Tampa Bay. Diego Cartaya would be a nice target for TB. The Dodgers actually do have the players to match up with TB. With Arozarena having 3 control years, Andy Pages becomes a nice target for TB, and the Dodgers would be more than willing to move Pages if they had Arozarena for three years.
I think it is more likely that CWS, Milwaukee, Detroit, KC, and other mid-tier teams staying away from trading their top of the rotation pitching. They want to at least give their players and fans the thought that going into the season they have a shot. If not, there is always the trade deadline where contending teams are more desperate.
Interesting and formative. Thanks
Mark at LADT likes to say that AF is playing chess while most others are playing checkers. I think AF is playing Jenga.
Or maybe RISK
Elite pitchers nearing free agency on small market or lower division clubs are likely the ones that will be traded. Some wealthy teams will likely overpay for those players. That is just how it is. The same is true for those handful of free agent players currently getting all the press. Only a few teams will be involved in these signings. We are lucky to be one of those teams
I believe it’s impossible to build a team in winter for a tournament the following October. We had a team that should have easily defeated the team in their own division they had clobbered in their head to head meetings and had beat them by over two weeks in the standings. We had a powerful offense lead by future Hall of Famers Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and another future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw on the mound. What happened is well documented. All three of those players failed miserably.
We will again be a team that in Spring and Summer scores a lot of runs and will again be favored to win our Division. If we continue to score in the postseason tournament we will have a chance. There are no guarantees the Dodgers will be a successful Fall baseball team and nothing they do this winter will change that fact.
The “Fall Classic”, with 12 teams in the running, maybe more in the future, will remain a crap shoot, with inferior teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks making the finals on occasion. Nothing can be done about that. The years of the two best teams meeting for the Championship are long past.
So for now we continue to wait to see if we can outbid the other three or four teams in the running for Ohtani. I think we will get him but even if we don’t, as I said we will again be the favorites to win the West and try it again in a roll the dice post season tournament.
On a personal note, it’s my opinion winter blows. With the exception of my downhill skiing days I’ve never been a fan of winter. Winter is basketball season, an indoor sport. I’ve never been a big fan of indoor sports. So these winter days I wait for weekend football games, I wait for the Dodgers to do what they will do and I wait for Spring Training. I wait. And wait some more.
Your point of view is quite a strange one, Badger. Basketball has nothing to do with winter even though it’s played in winter. It could easily be played in any season, anywhere. Hockey, played on ice, would be more aligned with winter but it also could be played in any season. I guess you are really not a ‘sports’ fan. Were you this way when you were a kid?
I know Badger and he misses his days “playing” Curling. He was especially good with the broom.
Curling is more demanding than you think Bum. I still have mad broom skills by the way.
Not a sports fan Jeff? Have we met?
I played football and baseball in high school and college. Also made the Marine Corps baseball team in ‘67 but didn’t play as I had WestPac orders come through. Was removed from practice to sign out of San Diego and go to further combat training at Pendleton. I played 3 years of intramural football, softball, some soccer, and basketball in college. One summer, age 17 I played Legion and Connie Mack, both highly competitive leagues in Orange County and Long Beach. I played MABL Division I into my 50’s. I also played tournament softball into my late 50s, and umpired tournament softball and baseball games to the semi pro level in Northern California. I’ve been a Dodger and Rams fan since 1959. I’ve been to several Lakers games, back in the early 70s when I worked hospitals in the LA area and got free tickets from doctors.
It’s true that as I have aged I don’t do the winter sports I once did. I also don’t attend as many games as I usta did. I willingly admit that I prefer outdoor activities but to assume I am not a sports fan is ludicrous.
Don’t fret.
Heading for California in the morning. Will check on all the in-action before I go. Got a lot to do today to get ready to go.
These meetings might be setting a record for non action. Bieber and Clase being shopped by Cleveland.
Now that the Yankees have their perennial batting champion they won’t need Soto anymore. Looks like SD missed their chance.
Actually the trade talks have intensified with SD and NYY now that NYY is amenable to including one or both of Michael King and Drew Thorpe a pair of very good RHSP, plus a few others on the MLB roster or high level prospects. If SD pulls this off, they will be able to add to their bevy of prospects and young controllable MLB pitching. Whereas AF looks for the perfect trade, AJ Preller is not at all shy about overpaying for a player he wants. He is the ultimate believer of prospects are suspects until they prove themselves at MLB. SD people have let it be known that Corbin Burnes is a legit target for them, and will overpay for him. I can see them moving SS Jackson Merrill and one of the pitching they get back from NYY. Preller is not afraid of negotiating with Scott Boras come next offseason. I suspect if it comes down to LAD or SD, Preller will beat out AF and get his target.
It’s been rumored SD is having financial issues and will look to rebuild with controllable talent as quickly as possible. What’s your take on that Jeff?
That is why Soto is being moved. That is why they will not spend on elite FA. That is why Jake Cronenworth may be next one out. Burnes will cost $15.5MM for one year. With Soto gone and no elite FA being signed, they will have more than enough room for a Corbin Burnes. With Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Darvish and Musgrove, they are not going to lie down. SD has said they want their payroll at $200MM, which they are right now, even with Soto and his projected arbitration, but they want to get well under $200MM and get below the CBT threshold. If they trade Soto and Cronenworth, even if they have to take back some payroll especially for Cronenworth, they can add Burnes and other lower tiered FA pitchers. With Soto gone, I can see Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha back in SD. Depending who they will need to trade to Milwaukee, they will still have enough MLB ready young pitching to fill out the rotation, and or move to the pen. SD should never have traded for Soto, but they wanted to compete against LAD, and they did with Soto. Now that they have their fan base back and a core that can compete in the NL West, it is time for them to move Soto to get to the next level.
Your thoughts about how we might match up with the Rays are very thought provoking, Jeff. Maybe something happens there.
The upside to the lack of activity at the meetings is that the time between the meetings and New Years will be much busier and more entertaining than usual.
Once the big domino falls things will pick up.
Editorial and venting:
Joel Sherman said something this AM that was of interest. NYY is disgusted with how they ended up last year and are out to become the Yankees again and acquire players. They want Juan Soto and are first up in the Yamamoto meetings. NYY wants both. How many times has NYY gone hard at who they wanted and come up 2nd. To Badgers post, maybe you do not win October in the Winter, but you can lose it. The Dodgers have proven that the last two years when they decided not to improve their team in the Winter or trade deadline. If the Dodgers do not get one or more importantly two top of the rotation pitchers, they will be relying on luck in October. Yes they will score runs. What did that do for them in the last two NLDS when they went to bat with a wet towel in their hands and could not hit anyone in while being scoring position. How much better would we all feel if Corbin Burnes and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were the 1-2 in the rotation.
I do not care if the Dodgers have to give up Vargas or Burnes, Sheehan or Frasso or Stone or Cartaya or Rushing. I will not lose one minute of sleep if Gavin Stone goes to Milwaukee and becomes their #4 and wins the ROY, when we get to see Corbin Burnes toeing the rubber in Game 1 of the WS to be followed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2. How great would the rotation be if Buehler, Miller, and Pepiot were #3, #4, and #5.
Who really cares which of one Sheehan, Frasso, Stone goes to Milwaukee. Ohtani, May, and Gonsolin will be back in 2025, and the Dodgers would be very high on the Burnes and Buehler re-sign agenda. Max Fried will be a FA and maybe he is the one who comes home.
The Dodgers will not always have Mookie and Freddie to carry them. How many more seasons will they be at the pinnacle of their trade. Hit it while they are with the Dodgers.
If the Dodgers have to rely on openers and piggyback pitchers next October, IMO they will have a quick exit once again in the playoffs.
The Dodgers have a chance to really improve their chances in 2024,and have the cash and the prospects to make it happen. Ohtani, Burnes, and Yamamoto may not guarantee an October win, but not getting them they could lose it.
It is not out of the realm of possibilities that the Giants come away with Yamamoto, Bellinger, and Matt Chapman this Winter. How good would Webb and Yamamoto look at the top of their rotation. What if Burnes goes to SD. Burnes, Darvish, and Musgrove with their offensive potential? Arizona knows who they are, and if they add a #4 like Seth Lugo, how tough will they be. They are so young and good.
How confident are you if you have to face Yamamoto in a must win game with a piggyback of Stone and Frasso?
Maybe AF should play a little more checkers. Then maybe he will be able to make a move and say “King Me”.
Well said!!
Everyone wants more better starting pitching. With the exception of Kershaw’s terrible outing, that dbacks series was winnable. The staff gave up 4 runs in each of the next two games. Those games were lost not because of pitching, but because of a lack of hitting. The Dodgers hit .177 with a team OPS of .498 in those 3 games. If Mookie, Freddie and everyone with the exception of Smith had hit, we could have won that series
Teams slump. Every team slumps. The Dodgers hit a hiccup at the wrong time. How does a team prevent that from happening? You can’t. You just have to hope it doesn’t happen at the wrong time.
And yet the D-backs shut them down. The LAD rotation was abominable and could not keep the team in the game. The Dodgers never led in the NLDS. Maybe because of the bullpen you eek out an NLDS win, but you cannot win 11 playoff games with the rotation the Dodgers were putting out there. What do you think Philadelphia and that staff and offense would have done. When you base your entire playoff strategy on slug, you are not going to win in October. Too many good pitchers in the other dugout. Good pitching shuts down good offenses. San Diego did it the year before.
Go out and get the elite pitching and let’s see what happens. Oh and it wouldn’t hurt if they can find a Whit Merrifield type who is not afraid to give himself up to get a runner home from 3B without a HR.
I guess I am not off my soap box quite yet. And I have another soap box I am about to climb. Why are people/fan/Dodger execs so upset with what Dave Roberts had to say about meeting with Ohtani and telling the media that Ohtani was their #1 priority? Is that breaking news? If you did not see the first segment on Hot Stove this AM on MLB Network, you missed fantastic monologues by both Harold Reynolds and Joel Sherman as to what a farce this “supposed” gag order is on teams that are courting Shohei Ohtani. I have no way of knowing, but if I had to guess, I would agree with Jon Morosi in saying that Roberts’ comments in NO WAY hurt the Dodgers in their pursuit of Ohtani.
Apparently the Ohtani decision is coming by the end of the weekend. Assuming the Dodgers are successful (and I do think they will sign him), I want to see what’s next. What will they do to bolster a rotation with a legit 2024 #1 and #2 not named Buehler or Miller?
NYY has Judge, Cole, Stanton, Rodon, Rizzo, and soon Soto to top their 2024 payroll. Does anyone really believe that Hal Steinbrenner is telling Brian Cashman that there is no more $$$ for Yamamoto? More than any other team (including NYM) NYY is in a position to spend and spend big, and for it to not be a factor. MLBTradeRumors is a hotbed for NYY fans, and they are not talking about piggybacking for their rotation. Their fans have zero problem with going for the jugular. Some LAD fans not only have zero problems with piggybacking, they are looking forward to it.
I heartily recognize and acknowledge that baseball fans wish list does not always resonate with the owners. But if the owners knew that their fan base is happy with depth, just bring up the OKC Dodgers and be done with roster construction. That should be enough to guarantee the Dodgers higher draft picks and the ability to continue this strategy.
Is Steve Cohen going to get beat in a bidding war? Certainly not against AF.
When I read that LAD fans say they have no problem with a rotation of Buehler/Miller/Pepiot/Sheehan/Stone and with Jonny Deluca in RF, I just smh. OKC Dodgers are looking for fans that are happy with that. I am not. And please, that does not mean that I do not like any of the five in the rotation or Jonny Deluca or Miguel Vargas or Michael Busch. I do. I like each and every one of them as depth. But I know they can and should do Better.
As a fan, I want Guggs/Kasten/and AF giving the lower revenue teams and the rest of MLB the middle finger and telling MLB owners to grow some cajónes and tell the lower revenue teams that there will be no more revenue sharing unless those $$$ are spent on their roster. If the Dodgers have to split their revenues with the “have nots” there should be consequences if those $$$ are not spent as to where they should be. Understanding sports oligarchies, I know that is not always practical. But once in a while it is.
While at USC with John McKay, and I can still remember him telling the media in a not so jocular nature that USC’s goal is not to win the Pac 8. They set their bar a lot higher. Their goal every year was to win the National Championship. He recruited the best of the best, and he did not have a limit on the # of players a team could have. His mantra to recruits…if you want to be the best, come and play with the best.
Sign Ohtani, sign Yamamoto, trade for Burnes and Glasnow/Arozarena. They can do it all. If Ohtani wants to be on a perennial winner (he says he does), what else do the Dodgers have to do to show him they are in it to win it now and in the future?
I think that there’s been a delay in the trade market for upper level pitchers because their current teams are waiting for a free agent pitcher or two to sign to establish a market value, at least in part.
Ohtani decision is expected by Sunday
Mad Dog ripping Ohtani a new orifice. Alana ripping him too. The secrecy is driving everyone nuts. Mad Dog all over Gomes for throwing Roberts under the bus on TV yesterday after he admitted the Dodgers had met with Ohtani earlier in the week. Ohtani has never played on an Angels team that has had a winning record. Of course, that means little to the Dodgers who perennially win more than they lose. Soto trade talks between Yankees and Padres heating up. If Ohtani goes to Toronto, the other main player in all of this, fine with me, resign JD to DH, sign Gurriel to play left field, trade for Burnes or Cease, no Adames or Yelich, and maybe even kick the tires on Bieber and Clase. Sign one of the fringe reclamation projects and the team is ready to go come spring.
Yankees have lost 3 players in the rule 5 draft, the Red Sox 2. The Dodgers surprisingly have not lost anyone in the major league side of the draft.
Heyward signing now official. Roster stands at 40.
Got a 1965 Mantle in the mail yesterday. Sweet card. 1914 Ruth rookie sold for 7.2 million. Damn!
Dodgers lost two players in the minor league side of the rule 5 draft. Carson Taylor went to the Phillies and they lost a minor league pitcher to the D-Backs. They did not select anyone.
Carson was a catching prospect for about a srason.
Congratulations, Moneybags.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/393173581356?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-117182-37290-0&mkcid=2&mkscid=101&itemid=393173581356&targetid=1493616688544&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9032828&poi=&campaignid=19851828444&mkgroupid=145880009174&rlsatarget=pla-1493616688544&abcId=9307249&merchantid=8381234&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIooytitz7ggMV1BmtBh3OHQgPEAQYAiABEgLqYfD_BwE
I can’t tell if specific names being associated with a rumored trade signifies anything, but….
:According to multiple sources, one name that will not be moved in a potential deal is right-hander Bobby Miller, who the #Dodgers have no interest in moving. The #WhiteSox have been looking to add arms this winter.
Busch, Sheehan
For
Cease and Jake Eder
It works for both me and the trade generator!
Can Dodgers fix Eder?
As JD would say, lottery ticket play.
But it will not work for CWS. CWS is reportedly asking for RHSP Rhett Lowder (1st round 2023 #7 overall) RHSP Chase Petty and two position players from Cincinnati. Lowder is Cincinnati #2 (MLB #41) and Petty is Cincinnati #6.
As you noted, CWS reportedly asked for Bobby Miller +. The discussions did not get too far as the Dodgers are not trading Bobby Miller. I wouldn’t either, but that hints to me what some teams think of the Dodgers prospects. CWS did not ask for Hunter Green, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott. They want the two Cincy RHSP prospects.
Maybe they asked for Stone and Frasso and AF said no, but that is not what is being speculated on.
We don’t know that Miller was asked for, we don’t know if he was asked about in what context, all we just know that he’s not being discussed.
where was that report about the Reds ask reported?
Per MLB Trade Rumors
1:23PM: White Sox righty Dylan Cease has been one of the most oft-discussed names at this week’s Winter Meetings, but Chicago’s asking price on the right-hander remains quite high and — at least to this point — prohibitive. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Sox asked the Reds for pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty in addition to two position-player prospects, for instance. Lowder was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft and currently ranks as baseball’s No. 45 prospect at Baseball America. Petty is the former first-rounder the Reds acquired from the Twins in their 2022 Sonny Gray trade.
The Dodgers were also linked to Cease last month, and Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports reports that even as L.A. has aggressively courted Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they’ve also been actively involved in Cease talks throughout the Winter Meetings.
Dorsey adds that the Sox have been eyeing pitching in return packages for Cease, but the Dodgers aren’t willing to include young right-hander Bobby Miller in a potential package for Cease.
Full article:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/dylan-cease-trade-rumors-asking-price-reds-rhett-lowder-dodgers.html
Do you really believe CWS did not ask for Bobby Miller? I do not know who else may have been discussed, but there is no question that CWS asked for Bobby Miller and were told no.
I don’t know or care if they asked for Miller, because we don’t know if they did or in what context. It’s irrelevant.
For what it’s worth, Sheehan has a higher (slightly higher) value than Petty and Lowder combined. 29 to a combined 27.
You were the one who brought up that the Dodgers are not trading Miller. I gave you the context that the Miller comment came from. Russell Dorsey. Believe him or not makes no difference to me. I choose to believe that CWS asked for Miller and AF told him no.
I don’t know or care if they asked for Miller, because we don’t know if they did or in what context. It’s irrelevant.
So is every baseball opinion blog out there. Opinions of fans and writers are just pure speculation. You do not have to like it, but I do. So I will continue to read the speculation and I will speculate on my own and write about it. Choose to read or not.
Just wait for the news that does happen and that will be relevant.
For the news – The Juan Soto trade is final.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/padres-trade-juan-soto-trent-grisham-yankees.html
Not to mention that Arizona has taken a big step by signing Eduardo Rodriguez.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/diamondbacks-agree-to-four-year-deal-with-eduardo-rodriguez.html
BTW aren’t trade simulators irrelevant?
I Would disagree with your universalism about irrelevance.
Passan, Kurkjian, many others are relevant. Most blogs? On those we can agree.
The trade simulator?
Totally irrelevant, but tons of fun and helpful for people like me who need guidance in valuation.
“So is every baseball opinion blog out there. Opinions of fans and writers are just pure speculation”
I agree with this, said so yesterday morning. Everyone is guessing, some get paid to do so.
Because what I write is so irrelevant, then maybe I should simply let this site lapse in January when the maintenance and storage invoices come in for thousands of dollars, and then we can all get our Twitter notifications from the relevant sources. Maybe you should tell us who all of those relevant sources are so we can tap into them so we do not waste our time on irrelevancy.
I think you are being facetious. I hope you are. If so, please forgive what follows, but I ONLY post it because you may not be.
Two things:
ONE: First and foremost, I really, really, really hope you are not writing and maintaining this fine blog because it’s relevant to me! I’m very weird, I have lots of opinions and thoughts that aren’t shared by others, more to the point is that I don’t know you, and have no bearing on your life. I hope you are doing this blog because you enjoy writing about the Dodgers and baseball, that those things are important to you or at least bring you happiness or peace of mind, bring a smile to your face, act as a distraction, allow you to scratch a public writing itch, or for whatever relevant reason you have!
TWO: Relevance. Relevance to me is probably 100% different from your POV or Badger’s, or that guy who always wants to trade Muncy. Everybody gets different things out of reading blogs and participating in communities. For me, all I really care about is understanding what’s going on. Why the Dodgers construct the roster as they do, why they preference player X over player Y. Why trades are made or offers, offered. Thus to me things like speculating under what conditions Miller’s name was intoned in a conversation btwn two GMs is totally and completely irrelevant. Thus to me things that Passan or Feinsand write are more relevant because they are closer to the “real info.” For other people relevance can be defined as the opportunity to talk to people of similar (or different) backgrounds or perspectives, for other people it could be an opportunity to pretend how great the Dodgers would be if they ran things, to imagine a paradise of a Dodgers without Max Muncy, some people actually like just making notation when they are right and/or others are wrong, Scott Andes had a blog that was a ton of fun until he let it be infiltrated by some people who found relevance in solely having the opportunity to be stupid, rude and blusterous. Everybody gets different things out of reading a blog (much less hosting or operating one.) Thus relevance is almost exclusively subjective.
That said, I think this community is quite excellent. The discussions, the exchange of actual information (thank you for the Reds link!) and the diversity of opinion are really, really rewarding.
I understand. But for me it would be helpful if you were to say in your opinion it is irrelevant rather than just stating it. Because whether Bobby Miller was discussed in a trade with CWS is relevant to me. Everybody is going to ask for Bobby Miller. Milwaukee will want Miller in a trade for Burnes. TB will want Bobby Miller in a trade for Glasnow. I recognize and acknowledge that Miller is NOT going to be included in a trade for a rental, even a two year rental. But that leads my brain to then move as to whether CWS or Tampa, or Milwaukee gives a rip about the remaining LAD prospects. So it is relevant for me to form any kind of potential deal.
For me, it is relevant that Milwaukee may not consider trading Burnes to LAD without including Adames and getting Lux plus significant pitching in return. Being true and relevant are not necessarily the same. I have no way of knowing if it is true, but it is relevant for my opinion forming.
Anyway, I am done on this topic.
Trade simulator approves the Soto deal:
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=Yankees&page=1
Er, maybe not!
I don’t know if “cash” is of a fair valuation.
Looks like the Padres won that deal.
Soto was leaving anyway. Maybe he stays in NY? Boras will negotiate his next deal so only 1 of a small handful of teams will be in those negotiations.
That King guy must be pretty good.
I tend to agree, I read a comment that resonates with me. That executing trades which are primarily driven by pitching prospects is especially worrisome because pitching prospects have such variance.
Pitching variances. Please expound Bluto.
Seems to me pitching should be easy to predict. With the analytics available, velocity, spin rate and command information are abundantly available. There are also professional sports psychologists to measure mental makeup. Scouts, coaches and management should be able to know, and know a few years in advance, who will be among those picked to be in the starting 5-6. Looking at the current depth chart I see 11 pitchers who can go 5 innings in the bigs next year
Pitchers in today’s game have to throw strikes with mad spin exactly where they want them for 5 innings to make a guaranteed 9 figure income. Pitchers of yesteryear threw twice the number of pitches in a year and sold cars in the offseason to pay the bills.
All that said, I realize the last step to the top of the pyramid is the most difficult to make
I’m rambling again. I shall stop and eat a bagel.
Pitching variance just means, or meant, that most pitching prospects don’t amount too much
That could be said for all prospects.
I have a different take on who won the trade. IMO, NYY won the trade, and for the reason that was written so much better and more succinct than I could, in the Athletic this AM.
The Yankees ranked 26th in the majors in OPS from their outfield, and that’s despite the presence of Aaron Judge. Remove him from the calculation, and New York’s outfielders slashed .214/.276/.360 for a .636 OPS. So yes, even if it costs you a good pitching prospect and a promising big-league arm, you do what it takes to add Soto’s career .946 OPS to that group.
NYY will find a replacement for Michael King, and they will find a different pitching prospect like Drew Thorpe (who is good). The others that were included are very replaceable. NYY did not give up any of their top OF prospects which SD could use.
NYY needed Juan Soto. They did not need Michael King and Drew Thorpe. SD could not afford to keep Soto. All reports are that SD is hemorrhaging cash because of their failed TV deal with Bally. They overextended, and now have to pay the piper.
I was just going on the simulator values Jeff.
Soto will help NY but what if he leaves after a year? NY has to pony up Judge money to keep him. I suspect they will offer it, but, who knows what Soto wants.
Yes, by simulator values it’s a massive overpay for 1 year of Soto.
There’s a discussion here:
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/153465
I would say that the simulator has trouble evaluating at the very high end of the spectrum. Soto is on a HOF career track, not sure how that get quantified.
And it has trouble evaluating financial fit. By financial fit, I mean it makes more sense for the Yankees to overpay for Soto because they have the resources to retain him EVEN if he hits the open-market. If the Rockies had traded for him, that would be a different story.
If he signs long term with the Yankees, it’s a win for them. What if he leads them to a World Series then leaves in free agency?
shrug!
So, funny story: Early last week, I scheduled with my season ticket rep to stop by Dodger Stadium last Friday, Dec 1, to grab my season ticket holder gift and a few other items from the Dodger offices (over on the Lodge level down the left field line).
My rep called me Wed or Thurs last week and said she needed to cancel Friday (didn’t give me a reason why), and asked if I could come this week instead.
Today Bill Plunkett just tweeted:
“Today’s meaningless nugget of Shohei Ohtani news — his meeting with Dodgers was Friday afternoon at Dodger Stadium. Stadium tours were ppd/cancelled, team store was closed so no accidental sightings.”
I guess I now why I was told to stay away!!
Shohei told AF,
‘two guys I don’t want to see when I get to the Stadium, Doc and Bobby!”
I always liked the way he played the game.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/vic-davalillo-passes-away.html
Agreed. He was fun to watch.
RIP
Starting to see more significant transactions with the Soto trade, Rodríguez signing and Candelario signing. It now looks like Friedman made a mistake by not agreeing to add on an option Year for Rodríguez at the trade deadline. They would have had Erod for the playoffs plus locked him up for 4 years and $69 million compared to the $80 million that Arizona paid.
Pretty surprising that the Dbacks added a top starter before the Dodgers. Now 3 top starters have signed: Nola, Gray, and Rodríguez. And 4 top FA starters remain: Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery, Imanaga,
The rumors are that Yamamoto may sign for $250-$300 million, while Snell and Monty will be $150-$200 million. Only Imanaga may sign for under $100 million. With so many teams still looking for pitching, the Dodgers will have difficulty signing one of those guys. Yamamoto likely goes to NY, Boston, or SF. Monty to Texas. Snell to ATL, Sea, or SF. Imanaga may be the best option for the Dodgers.
In the meantime, the Dodger focus seems to be on Ohtani, the $600 million DH. Seems crazy to put so many resources in one player, when the major need in 2024 is starting pitching. And Ohtani sets his own rules. Telling management what they can say, dictating media schedule, demanding a 6 man rotation, and monopolizing the DH spot every day. But as Jeff has said, this is a business decision, not a baseball one.
Do we know what we were offering in that rejected trade?
Of course not, lots of speculation though! It’s in no one’s interest to shed publicity on the actual reason
After the Soto trade to NY:
“The Braves are +650 to win the Fall Classic, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers at 7-1, the Rangers and Houston Astros at 9-1 and the Philadelphia Phillies at 10-1. The Arizona Diamondbacks head into the offseason at 25-1 to win next year’s World Series.”
Yankees are 17-2.
I guess signing Heyward and Kelly kept us right up there with the odds makers.
It might be Ricky Vanasco early signing that changed the Vegas odds.
Good point Bobby.
If the Dodgers sign Ohtani then I would like it if the Dodgers were able to trade Muncy for Burnes. The Brewers need a first baseman. I would let Rojas play 3rd base.
2B Betts
1B Freeman
DH Ohtani
C Smith
CF Outman
LF Pederson/Taylor
RF Heyward/DeLuca
3B Rojas
SS Lux
Burnes, Buehler, Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan, Stone, Grove
Where’s Vargas? What about Busch? I’d rather him in left than Pederson.
I would hope a few of Vargas, Busch, Stone, and the double AA pitching prospects would be traded for a third young third baseman and a “good” pitcher.
Maybe the Dodgers bring back Pederson, Justin Turner, and Kike’ on one year contracts. If the Dodgers don’t sign Ohtani then DH could be shared by Pederson and Turner with Turner getting playing time at third and Joc in LF.
Lee could be a good fit in LF if STB would be okay with him there instead of CF. Whitfield would also be a good fin in LF. I’d like to exchange a few 3 outcome hitters with a few contact hitters. I see Pederson has become more of a hitter than a swinger. Not sure if last year was a product of several hand injuries or not or maybe it was just too much platooning by the Giants.
If Lee and Outman would be in the same outfield I’d be more than happy to leave it to Doc and/or AF to determine who plays where.
I’m not thrilled with your rotation above.
You’ve listed 7 pitchers.
Grove has proven more effective in relief than as a starter.
Stone has failed so far in his MLB outings.
Sheehan has shown promise but hasn’t proven himself yet.
Pepiot looked great but in a very small sample size.
Miller looks to be making good progress.
Buehler is very uncertain coming back from TJ #2.
Burnes is an ace.
That rotation does not inspire confidence. It could be great but it could be pretty awful, or anywhere in between.
Assuming that we trade for Burnes, we still need Yamamoto and one other established MLB starter (someone like Ryu, Wacha or Lugo would be fine). If we don’t get YY, we need to do what we have to in order to get Cease or Glasnow.
Oh, and just to continue our years-long exchange, no thank you on Joc.
But I’m fine with Witt.
I left room and for Friedman to add his touch.
7 starters isn’t that many. We used 17 last year. I believe both Sheehan and Stone gained valuable experience and will be better prepared to step up and step in.
This is great:
Fun.
Most of those were right down the middle.
Must have taken quite a bit of work to get the timing right on ball hitting bat in time with the music.