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Notes From Nashville and In My Head

The Dodgers lost 2 MiLB players in the Rule 5 draft, MiLB phase.  25 year old catcher, Carson Taylor, and 21 year old RHP Darlin Pinales.  Pinales was drafted by Arizona in the 1st round of the MiLB phase, while Taylor was drafted by Philadelphia in the 3rd round in the MiLB phase.

Any player who meets the same eligibility requirements of the MLB Rule 5 Draft who is not added to the organization’s 38-man Triple-A roster can be selected by another team in the minor league phase of the draft.

Neither player was a big loss.  What is surprising to me is that Carson Taylor was not protected on the AAA roster.

The Dodgers did not select anyone in either phase.

While writing this, the “Juan Soto” trade was finalized.  Juan Soto and CF Trent Grisham were sent to NYY for  MLB RHSP Michael King, AA  RHSP Drew Thorpe, MLB RHRP Jhony Brito, AAA RHSP Randy Vazquez and MLB Catcher Kyle Higashioka.  Thorpe is the NYY #5 prospect (#99 top 100).  Vazquez is #13 NYY top prospect.

San Diego will save approximately $37MM – $38MM in this deal.

While it was a great financial offset, the prospect impact was decent, but not elite and not close to what they gave up.

  • CJ Abrams – Starting SS for Washington
  • LHSP MacKenzie Gore – In the starting rotation for Washington
  • OF James Woods – Nats #2 prospect (MLB #7)
  • OF Robert Hassell III – Nats #8 prospect
  • RHSP Jarlin Susana – Nats #12 prospect

For San Diego Michael King will go into the rotation and Brito will go directly to the pen.  Higashioka will be the backup catcher.  Thorpe and Vazquez will start the season in MiLB.  Thorpe will slide into the #6 slot for top San Diego Prospects and will give them 6 top 100 prospects.

We know the Padres like to collect SS, so Jackson Merrill can be a solid trade candidate for another SP.  Robbie Snelling, Dylan Lesko, and Thorpe can be a good addition to a package.  Jake Cronenworth can be a very nice 1B and bat for Milwaukee.  San Diego has the prospects and MLB talent to make a trade with Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes.  Will they?  We know Preller is not afraid of overpaying and including a top SS prospect.

The Domino effect.  With Soto going to the Bronx, NYY is no longer looking for a LH bat.  Cody Bellinger is no longer on their wish list.  That leaves SF and Cubs as the two remaining likely landing spots for Bellinger.  Cubs have Pete Crow-Armstrong just about ready to assume the CF spot.  Christopher Morel can play there until Crow-Armstrong is fully baked.

Boras has to be p****** that NYY traded for Soto, taking a potential high bidder for Bellinger.  It probably comes down to SF and Cubs splitting on Bellinger and Matt Chapman.  I say Bellinger to SF for far less than he was hoping for, and Chapman to Chicago for just about what Boras was hoping for.  Both Chapman and Bellinger have QO attached, so the likelihood of either team signing both is negligible.  However, SF and Chicago both have the financial ability to sign both Bellinger and Yamamoto.

Milwaukee has been linked to Rhys Hoskins, so the allure of Cronenworth is not as strong.

With Grisham off to NYY, San Diego will be looking for a CF, and the allure of Jung Hoo Lee seems imminent as a teammate with fellow countryman Ha Seong Kim

The rumors on the final day of the Winter Meetings had a lot of conjecture that Ohtani was going to choose Toronto.  Tom Verducci went through a litany of reasons why Toronto made so much sense.  Some were questioning why Ohtani met Toronto execs in Dunedin, Fla.  Verducci explained that Ohtani lives and breathes only baseball, and the $100MM reno on their spring complex in Dunedin is what Ohtani wanted to see.  He did not need to see Rogers Centre.

Ohtani loves controlled environments.  Rogers Centre is domed and reminds him the stadium of his former team, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters.  A lot of reasons why Toronto is a legit destination for Shohei.

The decision should be coming down this weekend.

If the Dodgers do not get Ohtani, where do they go from there.

Yamamoto? I still cannot see the Dodgers agreeing to sign a pitcher for 9 years.  Too much competition for Yamamoto with a lot of $$$.  The higher the financial obligation increases, the longer the life of the contract to make it bearable from an AAV standpoint, making it less likely for LAD.

I would not be upset if AF called Boras, go Rangers style, and say he wants both of his LHSP: Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.  And I want Whit Merrifield in LF.  Second pick for LF would be Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

I do not want to count on the Dodgers outscoring their opponent in Game 1 of the NLDS. That has not worked out the last two NLDS.  I want to see Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery on the bump for Game 1.  I believe in making your own luck.

Believing that none of those scenarios will happen, I then hope for a trade for a top of the rotation pitcher, and one or two reclamation projects.  I prefer Burnes as #1 and Glasnow as #2.  I would not have a problem if they were able to get both.  I would still hope for Merrifield or Gurriel Jr. in LF.

As an aside, I think the only way the Dodgers get Burnes is if they expand the deal and also get Adames, and include Lux in the package.  I am not sure how much of an appetite AF will have of trading Lux.

Today we learned that Walker Buehler will probably not be ready to start the season in the rotation.  Whether this is by design to minimize his IP this year is irrelevant.  Right now the Dodgers are going into the season with Bobby Miller as the #1, and Pepiot, Yarbrough, Sheehan, Grove, Stone, Knack, and Frasso as the 2-5 choices.  For me, it does not inspire a lot of confidence.  Until the Dodgers do anything, that is the rotation.

With the D-backs signing of Eduardo Rodriguez, Dodgers are now behind Arizona even more in the caliber of thir starting rotation.

There is a lot of moving pieces, and we will learn more this weekend.

We also learned today that for a potential right-handed batter in free agency, the Dodgers have reportedly shown interest in a Kiké Hernández reunion (per Rosenthal) as well as Isiah Kiner-Falefa (per Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic). I have no way of knowing how serious they are in that pursuit, but that does not inspire me very much.

I have 32 free agents signed.  Only 9 of the top 50.  Overall 24 of the 32 players signed are pitchers, including 20 RHP, including 11 RHRP.

Where do you think some of the top FA will be going now that Juan Soto has been traded?

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Cody Bellinger

Blake Snell

Jordan Montgomery

Matt Chapman

Josh Hader

Shōta Imanaga

Teoscar Hernandez

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Jung Hoo Lee







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Nor would I be upset if AF called Boras, go Rangers style, and say he wants both of his LHSP: Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery plus Whit Merryfield.

I don’t want Adames. I like the idea of Merryfield and Lux hitting 8 and 9 in the batting order.

Maybe Justin Turner and Busch as the DH if no Ohtani


I would be fine with Adames. But Bear is right, he is a free agent in ‘25. So is Gurriel.

I have a couple of questions about Yamamoto. Japan baseball still goes with a 6 man rotation. He started 24, went 171 innings pitching once a week. Also my understanding is he throws a lot of splitters. We already have a split finger starter on this team and he is out after having surgery. Yamamoto is young, but he may not be for long throwing that pitch more often to Major League hitters. 9 years is a risky length with any pitcher, but it’s even longer with a 170 pound split finger pitcher used to a 6 man rotation

If Ohtani signs somewhere else, the conversations in here will get that much more interesting. He needs to make his decision so everyone can move forward.

Last edited 7 months ago by Badger

The Ohtani saga has to end soon, perhaps by Sunday. Once AF and Gomes know what Ohtani is going to do, they have to get to work to add SP either through free agency or more likely the trade route.

I’m not at all inspired starting the season with a rotation of Miller, Pepiot, Grove, Stone Sheehan and ????. They all have great potential, but the Dodgers need proven MLB SP from the likes of Burnes, Snell, Glasnow or Montgomery coupled with the youngsters and a return to good health in Buehler in order to be successful.

The D-Backs got better by adding Rodriguez and it appears SD is looking to add SP and have re-stocked their trade inventory by offloading Soto.

If Ohtani signs with the Dodgers many fans including myself will be very happy, but if he chooses the Blue Jays or some other mystery club, AF needs to go hard and shift gears by signing JDM or JT as the DH and get pitching, pitching and more pitching.


Why does it have to end soon? Has there really been enough time or offers for him to have to decide which one to take.


Assuming the Dodgers don’t have to use up the arms of Buehler, Miller, and Pepiot during the regular season, I think they would be a lethal threesome to pitch the first 3 games of a playoff series. The piggyback would be used for the 4th starter.

Burnes would offer the Dodgers a full season plus playoff innings.

The Dodgers have enough hitters like Muncy, Taylor, Outman, and need a couple of contact hitters. Lux has a chance to be one but Adames does not. My perhaps only worry with Lux is how his knee holds up and whether he has lost any quickness.


Yankees could flip Verdugo for pitching. Add other players and they could be the team that gets Burnes.


Stop it.


I’m curious where Toronto would turn if they don’t get Ohtani.

They were in on Soto, in on Ohtani. Sounds like they won’t hesitate to throw some money for their everyday lineup.

JDM? Bellinger?


Made it to Mesquite Nevada last night. No news. Hmm. I care less how good Adames is defensively. He is a rental, and I am not trading prospects for two rentals, Burnes and Adames. They would probably want the Dodgers to take Yelich too. No thanks.


The Yankees just gave up a few prospects for a rental. Burnes, Adames, Gurriel/Yelich and Ohtani might bump us in front of Atlanta as favorites in ‘ 24.

But I hear you on this one. Risky business going with rentals.

The big domino will fall soon.


The Warriors won championships with rentals and vet mins. It can work.


Prediction: Ohtani signs with us at 5pm PST today for 10y/$550 with opt-outs after 3rd and 5th years.


Whit Merrifield would make a great addition to our lineup. Good rh bat, veteran presence, versatile fielder. Put him in left but he also plays infield. Curious that there has been no mention of that possibility other than the comment here today.
I have tracked the Dodgers starting pitchers the last 3 yrs. They quietly transition to an xtra day between starts mid way thru the season. If they had a Japanese pitcher, Buehler, young arms and a recovering Kershaw I could see them going 6 man the whole way.
Can anyone remember Friedman doing a deal that everyone saw coming? I can’t.
Trade for Mookie, Freeman, Bauer, Syndergard, Heyward/ Peralta werr all under the radar while at tge samr time the journalists were hot on every other major free agent. I expect him to do what needs to be done but none of us can scour the rosters of every team like his staff so we can’t know what he’s really got up his sleeve. Certainly not what the journalists are shoveling!

Last edited 7 months ago by Dave

At the risk of sounding like a contrarian I’m a hard no on Merrifield. He’s a 35 year old .7 WAR player whose projections show an OPS of .698. I prefer some slug in left and that’s why I would lean toward Gurriel, a 3 WAR player who projects a .767 OPS.

The Dodgers can afford Ohtani AND a front rotation starter. I expect both. Dionysus prediction on Ohtani sounds close to me. So let it be written, so let it be done. (slight nod to our Greek god here)

Last edited 7 months ago by Badger
Singing the Blue

At the risk of agreeing with you and as a longtime fan of Whit’s, I’d much prefer Gurriel at this point in time. Of course, there would be a major difference in cost, but we’re going to save between 500-600 million when Shohei announces he’s going to Toronto later today or tomorrow.


You and I were both Whit fans back when he was hitting .300, OPSn over .800 and was a +dWAR player. He’s none of that recently.

That’s a lot of money we are offering Shohei. If he signs with someone else I sure hope he’s not worth it.


Fact based argument. You win.


Adam Duvall could be a good pickup to play LF. Pretty even splits. Could probably be had on a 1 year deal for around $6M.


If Ohtani doesn’t choose us, that means DH is open. The likely rumored guys would be Justin Turner or JD Martinez, 2 right handed hitters.

In that case, I wonder/hope we’d try for the Korean outfielder, Lee? His bat to ball skills and defense in the outfield would be a great fit.


If Ohtani doesn’t sign with us there are a number of things that can, and better be done. Lee is definitely an option.

I’m still betting on Ohtani. It just makes too much sense for all parties.


The face of Canada? I thought that was William Shatner.

And nobody said Ohtani wasn’t a fit in Canada.

If Toronto has so much money, why are they not among the top spenders in MLB.

LA makes sense for just as many reasons. Maybe he does blow us off again. If so, Canada can have him. And it will only be Eastern Canada. Western Canada is a world away from Toronto. And the 118 people who live in northern Canada don’t give a sh*t about baseball.

Can’t wait for this to be done.


Hoornstra says it’s the Blue Jays!

Singing the Blue

Three other pundits say no decision has been made yet, although Hoornstra is good at what he does. Not the kind to throw around unfounded rumors. I’d tend to believe him.

Fred Vogel

If it is the Blue Jays it won’t be the first time Otani jilted us. I remember when Kershaw hosted him in his TX home only to be surprised that Otani didn’t sign with the Dodgers. If I recall correctly, which I rarely do these days, that event left Kershaw a bit peeved with Otani.

Singing the Blue

I think the first time around, the main reason he didn’t sign here was because the NL had no DH yet.

This time, that doesn’t factor in.

Fred Vogel

Makes sense.


3:00pm: Ohtani is en route to Toronto, per Morosi, though he adds that Ohtani does not have a signed agreement with any team.


I’ve had mixed thoughts on Ohtani. He would tie up a lot of payroll for a long time. The Dodgers might not be best served signing 30+ year olds to long contracts. On the other hand he would be another player to watch with interest. I usually watch a few innings and switch the channel and then watch the innings I missed making good use of fast forward. He would be another hitter I would watch.

Without Ohtani there is little chance the Dodgers trade Muncy.

Singing the Blue

We did offer Fergy for O’Neill but the Cards thought that would be taking advantage of us so took a lesser offer.




Well, as Saturday morning arrives Ohtani and his contingent of mystery still feel the need to string along interested teams, the media, and baseball fans. This guy has had months to decide which city he wants to play in. So decide, get an offer from them and make a damn decision.

I hope it’s Toronto. It’s a great city and good baseball town. The Blue Jays are about a 90 win team so Ohtani will be on a team that has a chance to win, but hasn’t won a championship in 21 years. So that is confusing. But, he will be the man and the most highly paid baseball player of all time… Canada. Talk about avoiding the spotlight.

He and Trout are the most highly paid, but want to avoid as much attention as possible. This is awful for promoting MLB. How could the Dodgers sign a player where a good deal of his value is to increase the Dodger brand and the player doesn’t want to be bothered by the media or avoid attention to him? He’s an enigma, so it doesn’t make sense to me.

It looks like Toronto it is. But, if the Dodgers somehow have the chance to sign Ohtani it could be the worst signing in Dodger history and possibly baseball history in IMHO. My reasoning has been posted several times recently.

I’m not a Dave Roberts fan, but kudos to him for breaking “the code of silence” seemingly required by the paranoid and clandestine Ohtani team. Is this going to be the precursor to how Ohtani wants to be treated as a player and teammate?

Sign JDM, shore up the starting staff with a FA signing(s) and/or a trade and get ready for another championship run. Give all the 25-27 year olds in AAA a chance to play for a MLB team. It’s complete BS to leave them in the minors. For what reason?

Carry on.

Last edited 7 months ago by tedraymond

There are a number of celebrities that prefer to keep low personal profiles . I don’t mind that Ohtani keeps to himself. He plays baseball for a living. That doesn’t require public speaking skills.

I believe those reports that say he knows where he wants to play, and maybe has known for a while. I hear that he has a home in Newport Beach. Nice. I’ve never been to Toronto, I hear it’s a great city, but I assume winters are brutal there. Winters are quite nice in Newport Beach. Maybe Ohtani wants to live and work primarily outside of the U.S. If so, at least he would not be in a division rival city where he would pound the living bejeezuz out of LA pitching.

Even though it’s actually still early in the winter process (some signings don’t happen til after Elvis’s birthday) I agree it’s time for this drama to end. If it isn’t LA, Friedman will have a lot of money to gather the pitching this team will need to get beyond the first round in the October tournament.

Last edited 7 months ago by Badger

I agree with what you wrote about celebrity might wanting low profiles. But, a large part of Ohtani’s value (especially to the Dodgers) is to use his personality to grow their brand. He doesn’t seem to be the vehicle to accomplish that goal. And I’m not blaming Ohtani for that. He should be allowed to live his life as he pleases. It just doesn’t seem a team like the Dodgers and Ohtani are compatible. Especially when there is a half a billion dollars plus is involved.

What I don’t get or like is all the cloak and dagger BS that Ohtani’s team is demanding. He is not motivated by money and location/team were more important. If he had selected a team going into FA then why all the mystery and delay? I know he isn’t a Nike spokesman, but JUST DO IT!

Singing the Blue

Word is floating around now that he knows where he wants to play but that team hasn’t yet met his price.

That sounds like it could be Mr. Friedman.

If it is, I think it’s time for Andrew to put one last offer on the table, take it or leave it. I’m not at all sure we can afford to sign both Ohtani and Yamamoto and YY is coming to town next week. It’s time we know how much money we can offer him.


Many people have commented her that the Dodgers need to add a Curt Gibson type player to help rid the Dodger clubhouse of their laid back ways. I have not been one of those commenters. Ohtani would is a good clubhouse fit.

His goal is not to be the face of a team. I like that. A player like Tatis sucks in all the attention a team might have and I think it subtracts from team performance. Maybe Tatis would help the Angels but not help the Dodgers as much because they are already a winning team.

If anything, I think the Dodgers need more balance between small ball and long ball along with the need to add a couple of pitchers that can go 7 innings and then turn the game over to the bullpen with a lead.


I don’t know Bum, to ask for the most money in the history of baseball there has to be some leadership expected. It doesn’t need to be noise in the public arena, but it sure needs to be “follow me” in the clubhouse. Both Ohtani and Trout, unlike a guy like Tatis, strike me as the strong silent type. They probably aren’t comfortable in front of cameras off the field, but on the field? where it counts? Hall of Fame careers.

He chose Anaheim before. Is that an indicator? Toronto is a “nice city”. That’s nice. But Toronto sure as sunset isn’t New York or LA.

I hope we find out soon, and at this point I’m fine either way. The Dodgers will be successful with or without him.

Last edited 7 months ago by Badger

Sure wish AF would tell Ohtani to pound sand and move on to addressing the real needs of the team. Mainly the starting pitching. A right handed outfield bat that hits lefties wel would be helpful. DH is the least of our worries.

Last edited 7 months ago by OhioDodger

I thought AF and the Dodgers had more sense than to do this. Now, how much is left for starting pitching.


Brilliant move.
Brilliant baseball move.
Brilliant business move.
Brilliant idea by Shohei to defer a lot of the salary so that we can sign more players and win.

So much for all the pre-emptive bitching about Friedman not spending that we heard the past week or 2.


I know this might sound crazy, but I’m going to assume the owners already thought about the financial ramifications and the CBT, and how they would afford it all.

11 straight years in the playoffs. I think these guys want to make money AND win at baseball.

Now let’s see who they bring in to pitch. I won’t bitch until I see what our staff looks like on March 28.


This fits Friedman’s MO.

Chase the superstars, find value and homegrown talent to supplement.


Did you post about Roki Sasaki? Any idea if he really will be posted as well?


Absolutely, (I’ll be respectful) frickin’ ridiculous!!!!! Deferred or not.

To spend $700MM for a baseball player is beyond irresponsible. Not only to baseball, but to the fans of the game. This is so out of AF’s wheelhouse that he is going to have a breakdown after this contract is signed. It had to be strictly driven by ownership.

I guess it will be a trade for a one year (FA eligible) starter, the youngsters, and a reclamation project or two for the starting staff. This delay with Buehler starting the season on time leads me to believe that he cannot be counted on for the long haul. I’m afraid of the words “we want to get him ready for the playoffs” in May/June. We know what that usually means.

Regardless Ohtani, welcome to the Los Angeles Dodgers!


“It’ll pay for itself within six or seven years…He’s literally just a money factory. Even just on advertising alone. All the eyeballs from Japan. He’s like Michael Jordan to them. He’s like Taylor Swift.”



So… it’s not horse pucky?

I don’t see this necessarily increasing the number of wins next year, but as mentioned, the money will roll in.


You don’t think his bat will add to Dodger wins? You know it will. Dodgers would never cut their own throat financially. Was it more logical to acquire a number of players for that kind of money? Yes, but logic has nothing to do with sports anymore. This will be a very interesting year for the Dodgers. Welcome Shohei!


No need to slit your throats yet. This move has been figured out by people with way more inside knowledge than we have. Deferring salary, and from what I read, a large portion of it, was Ohtani’s idea to help the Dodgers stay competitive. There will be money to get pitching and what ever else they might need. Let us see how it all is structured before panic sets in.

Singing the Blue

I agree with Bobby’s comment above, that management has done the math on this and they will be able to come up with viable additions to add around Ohtani, including a couple of good pitchers for next year.

On the face of it this deal seems ridiculous, but I’m not going to crucify AF until I have his explanation as to how they see this playing out.

Sasaki has asked to be posted. His team has only until 12/15 to decide if they are going to do that. Some people think he had a provision in his contract (same as Ohtani did) that he could leave whenever he chose to. We will see.

One other thing. Apparently he had a conversation with Ohtani about what it was like for Shohei when he came over here. That means they already have a relationship of some sort. Maybe Roki likes the idea of playing with Shohei and if he’s posted this year (or next) he won’t be eligible for a huge payday so he’ll be affordable.


So, after my initial reaction I thought about this contract and the deferred amount is the key to whole deal.

Guggenheim bought this team to make money for their investors. So far they have at least doubled their money in 12 years and made this team a perennial winner along the way. How much value does Ohtani alone add to the team in the next five years? What about if they win a championship or two as well? Two billion? Three billion? Four billion in added value? Let’s say in the next five years the value increases two billion dollars with the Ohtani affect and maybe a World Series win. I don’t know what Ohtani actually going to get per year. Let’s say it’s $40MM times five years is $200MM. And the team value has gone up $2B. That’s a ten bagger in five years. Even if the value only goes up $1B that more than justifies Ohtani’s annual salary during the five years. Even with the future CBT penalties. Then in five years Guggenheim decides to sell the team for $5-$7B the buyers are stuck with the deferred payments for Ohtani. Not Guggenheim! It’s what the former owner of the Marlins did. He got Miami to pay for a new stadium which increased the value of the team. He, also, signed Stanton to a record breaking contract knowing he would never have to pay most of it.

These owners manage billions of dollars. I would be surprised if this wasn’t the strategy for offering whatever it took to get Ohtani. They did the same thing when they bought the team. They didn’t want to get into a bidding war so they just blew everyone else out of the water with an outrageous number. They had a long term plan that would at least double their money.

With Ohtani agreeing to keep his salary down to allow for additional signings, even wreaking baseball’s salary structure, and thinking I understand Guggenheim’s reasoning I say “hell yeah, I’m in with Ohtani”.

I understand I’m all over the place with this signing with my earlier post, but the investment aspect of the deal by ownership take much of the ridiculousness out of the contract amount..

Last edited 7 months ago by tedraymond

Looks like you and Jeff came around quickly.

This has been talked about for weeks. The only thing that is surprising is the $700 million.

As I mentioned above, this probably won’t add to the regular season win column. It’s about money. Lots of it.


Not surprised the Dodgers got him, but am blown away by the numbers. This is an organizational decision, and it’s about brand. No way he puts up the WAR to earn that money on the field. The Dodgers clearly have their own $WAR for this one player and it’s nowhere near $8-9 million.



RC Dodger

My first reaction at signing Ohtani for $700 million was shock and concern. But it is difficult to analyze until the contract details are revealed. Passan is guessing that the AAV may be $35 to $40 million based on present value of the deferrals. If that is the case, and the marketing/streaming revenue is as substantial as some project, then maybe it makes sense as a business decision. Jeff consistently said this is a business decision not a baseball decision, and I think he is correct. It will be interesting once more information is released.


I think people don’t understand probability. The over/under for championships during his contract should be 1.5. Winning it all isn’t easy.


Who has every expressed (especially on this blog) the idea that winning is easy?

Most people understand the playoffs are oddly dependent on luck, so we’re/I’m not sure what you are talking about WRT “probability”.

Do you mean basic percentages?


Joke or serious?

You can’t possibly be this dumb.

It’s a cute act. Keep it going. All 100 people who read this blog must enjoy it.



Sorry, I thought you were serious.

Yes, you got me.


I don’t think Lloyd’s of London will touch this contract. Stay healthy Showtime.

I don’t want to analyze this signing and instead just try to enjoy it.

The Dodgers will be hated by non Dodger fans but they will fill stadiums home and away.

The Yankees now need to extend Sosa to get back into the news.

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