We are now within a month of Pitchers and Catchers reporting to ST. The Dodgers won 100 games last year and won the NL West by 16.0 games, and were the #2 seed in the NL behind Atlanta.
I thought this would be an okay time to see how the offseason has stacked up for the NL West Division teams. There have been relatively few trades and only 27 of the top 50 (MLBTradeRumors) free agents have signed (and 10 of the next 23). So there are still a lot that can change the environment over the next 4 weeks. All but the Rockies figure to make some additional significant roster changes.
The Dodgers have a reputation of wildly spending for players, however the Dodgers have not been known to outspend other teams in the offseason. They have paid a lot for their own. They have certainly been known to make sure that they did not overspend on any particular player, and that has drawn the ire of many LAD fans. But this offseason has seen the Dodgers disintegrate that notion.
The first player signed for 2024 was RHRP Ricky Vanasco who signed a MLB contract for $900K. It was certainly strange that the Dodgers opted to give Vanasco a MLB guaranteed contract rather than a MiLB contract and invite to ST. That has been their norm.
That was followed by $9MM to re-sign Jason Heyward and $8MM to re-sign Joe Kelly. That is $9MM for a 34 year old platoon OF and $8MM for an oft-injured 36 year old RHRP.
That was followed the overwhelming free agent contracts for 2-way superstar, Shohei Ohtani, and for RHSP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I was against signing Ohtani, because I thought that it would impair their ability to sign Yamamoto, the one player they truly needed THIS year. And because of the genius contract for Ohtani, the Dodgers were easily in position to outbid the other clubs for Yamamoto. The Dodgers are usually in second or third or fourth position for free agents. Freddie Freeman basically fell into their laps when Alex Anthopoulos decided to trade for Matt Olson and extend him rather than wait for Freddie to agree to terms. What other free agent have they come to terms with on a 4+ year deal other than one of their own. This year they get 2 of the top 3.
AF/BG traded a promising RHSP (Ryan Pepiot) and reserve/platoon OF (Jonny DeLuca) for a potential CY candidate RHSP (Tyler Glasnow) and a veteran reserve/platoon OF who hits lefties very well (Manuel Margot). But they were not going to trade Pepiot unless they could get Glasnow to extend. The Dodgers gambled and bet that Glasnow is now fully healthy and that Mark Prior can put him in the lab and make him even better, and extended him to 5 years $136MM.
They were not done. Losing JDM, the team needed a RH bat who kills LHP. Best one available? Teoscar Hernández. He was not cheap. $23.5MM for 1 year, with award incentives that could take it higher still.
AF/BG (with the input/approval/blessing) of the owners have significantly upgraded their starting pitching over 2023. With the return of Walker Buehler, the Dodgers top 4 this year will be:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Tyler Glasnow
- Bobby Miller
- Walker Buehler
24 year old Emmet Sheehan will represent the youth as the probable 5th starter, with Ryan Yarbrough currently considered the #6 starter. With the paucity of available funds the Rangers have to spend, Clayton Kershaw is almost a “for sure” addition to the staff for the August-November run. Money should not (will not) be a deterrence for AF/BG to sign #22.
Depth? Michael Grove, Gavin Stone, Kyle Hurt, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, River Ryan. All MLB or AAA. The next tier of pitchers is starting to form, so I would expect to see this list begin to dwindle in the next 30 days and/or at the trade deadline.
The Dodgers have not only significantly improved their MLB roster, but they have also improved their affiliates. The Dodgers have lost MiLB players – Michael Busch, Jorbit Vivas, Jonny DeLuca, Victor González. Every one of them were blocked at the MLB level as a regular. In other words, all were replaceable.
Because AF/BG believes that the MLB roster/rotation is in good shape, they are now looking to rebuild their farm system. They have acquired:
- 24 year old SS/3B Trey Sweeney – Will probably start at AAA (LAD #18)
- 18 year old LHP Justin Chambers – Will probably start in the Arizona Complex League (Rookie League).
- 20 year old LHP Jackson Ferris – Will start the season at Great Lakes (A+) – (LAD #5)
- 19 year old OF/LHP Zyhir Ferris – Will start the season at Rancho Cucamonga (full season A Ball).
Trey Sweeney does not appear to be a star in the waiting, but he could at least become a more than competent reserve/platoon infielder. He has a MLB bat potential and will probably slide over to 3B where his arm will be plenty. He may be the next James Outman type who will work as hard as he can and do whatever it takes to become a MLB regular. Like Outman, he is someone who will not be denied.
Justin Chambers is a wild card. As a LHSP, he is certainly a pitcher of need. Other than Justin Wrobleski and Maddux Bruns, the Dodgers do not have a lot of LHSP talent. He will probably pitch himself into the LAD top 30 by year end (maybe top 20) as an 18 year old. The Dodgers have worked wonders for pitchers returning from TJ surgery who are willing to put in the work.
Zyhir Hope is an exceptional athlete. This is a trait the Dodgers look for. In HS, Hope was known for doing his Ozzie Smith back flips before games. He even did one of his back flips in his gown at his HS graduation. He has tremendous power for a 19 year old. His power looks to be better than fellow 19 year old Josue DePaula right now. Will it stay there? Heck, I do not even know if Hope remains an OF. He could also become a pitcher.
Jackson Ferris looks to be the big prospect “get” this offseason. I do not think it is fair to draw comps of a 20 year old to Blake Snell. But if he gets there, LAD has a future Ace. Jim Callis (MLB Pipeline), is one of the best amateur talent evaluators, has said that Ferris could become the best LHP prospect in all of MiLB. That is high praise indeed. I think most talent evaluators are looking for Ferris to jump into the top 100 lists maybe by mid-season. Some are saying he will be this year’s helium pitcher as Nick Frasso was last year.
The Dodgers addressed positions of need: middle infielder, outfield, LHSP.
The Dodgers are now saying they want to turn their MLB ready players into future talent. If they can get players of the ilk of Ferris, Hope, Chambers, and Sweeney, I say “Get ‘er Done!!”
Besides the additions identified above, the Dodgers have also added depth at the MiLB level. This year’s Yonny Hernandez is 25 year old Jonathan Araúz. He will not be special at the MLB level, but he does have MLB experience. I do not expect to see him on the 26 man this year, but if there are injuries, he can certainly fill in.
Two relievers who have had successful MLB seasons have also been signed to MLB contracts. RHRP Daniel Hudson, and 29 year old RHRP Nabil Crismatt. Hudson has closer experience, and if healthy, he could break camp as one of the relievers on the 26 man. Crismatt figures to be someone who could be called upon if for the inevitable Joe Kelly injury.
Elieser Hernández is that tweener. Journeyman #6/long relief, and AAAA/MLB pitcher. Depth and more depth. I know the Dodgers were considering trading for Hernández when he was Hernández with Miami during the 2020-2021 seasons. He is another who could find new life in the Mark Prior lab. This is not a reclamation project in the form of Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson, but more in the line of Mike Montgomery, Matt Andriese and Robbie Erlin. Because of the number of LAD prospects about ready, Hernández has to be considered a LONGSHOT. While he has a chance, I do not like his odds.
I am not sure if this is foretelling of another trade, but the Dodgers have also signed AAAA Catcher, Chris Okey. He has been assigned initially to OKC, putting him in a logjam with Hunter Feduccia and Diego Cartaya. Is Barnes or Feduccia likely to be traded? Do they want to keep Cartaya back at AA and compete head on with Dalton Rushing? Simon Reid also figures to be at Tulsa. I have zero clue.
Others that have been signed to MiLB deals:
- Utility Brendon Davis (26) – He has played SS/3B/1B/2B/RF – Currently assigned to Tulsa.
- CF Austin Beck (25) – He is one I am really hoping takes to LAD development. Former 1st round pick (6th overall). He has been currently assigned to Tulsa.
- LF Lolo Sanchez (25) – Currently assigned to Tulsa.
- OF Travis Swaggerty (26) – Former 1st round pick (10th overall). He has been currently assigned to OKC.
There is very little guessing at the currently projected MLB 26-man roster for position players. It is all subject to change.
The pitching is a little more fluid, but also pretty well fixed.
Position Players:
1B – Freddie Freeman (L)
2B – Mookie Betts (R)
3B – Max Muncy (L)
SS – Gavin Lux – (L)
LF – Teoscar Hernández (R)
CF – James Outman (L)
RF – Jason Heyward (L)
C – Will Smith (R)
DH – Shohei Ohtani (L)
Bench:
C – Austin Barnes (R)
INF/OF – Chris Taylor (R)
INF – Miguel Rojas (R)
OF – Manuel Margot (R)
Of course, Manuel Margot and Miguel Rojas are potential trade candidates, freeing up a spot for Miguel Vargas. He has very little to gain going back at OKC. I do not know how the Dodgers can justify it enough to have Vargas go back with positive thoughts, but then again, they do not have to. It would be up to Vargas. If he hits like he can at OKC and plays better defense, he becomes a very marketable player at the deadline. If he is not needed on the LAD 26 man due to injury. This is why AF/BG get the big bucks figuring what is best for the team AND taking the player into consideration.
Rotation:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
Tyler Glasnow (R)
Walker Buehler (R)
Bobby Miller (R)
Emmet Sheehan (R)
Relievers:
Evan Phillips (R)
Brusdar Graterol (R)
Joe Kelly (R)
Caleb Ferguson (L)
Alex Vesia (L)
Blake Treinen (R)
J.P. Feyereisen (R)
Starter/Reliever:
Ryan Yarbrough (L)
If Buehler starts the season on the IL, I foresee Gavin Stone as his replacement. Michael Grove, Landon Knack, and Kyle Hurt could also be candidates depending on ST.
Grove and Hurt, with Daniel Hudson, are potential candidates for the bullpen as well.
The Dodgers have 39 on their 40 man, so the above could change quickly with the addition of another FA or trade.
I do not see the Dodgers standing pat. I think they will wait until the cost comes down on any number of trade candidates. Because both the NL Central and AL Central are both open to winning by any of the teams in the Division, three teams with potential trades for pitchers figure to stay right where they are until the trade deadline.
- Milwaukee – Corbin Burnes
- Chicago White Sox – Dylan Cease
- Cleveland – Shane Bieber
The fourth that is talked about is Jesús Luzardo. While the Dodgers can certainly put a package together to acquire Luzardo, Baltimore and Cincinnati both have a better package they can put together (if they want to).
Do they look to Hyun-jin Ryu or James Paxton as potential LHSP? Would they be amenable to Trevor Rogers as an alternative to Luzardo? Braxton Garrett? Or someone that nobody has even discussed up to now?
So with less than a month before pitchers and catchers report, the Dodgers are set, but then again, there is room for additions that can make them even more formidable.
Wednesday, I will highlight the Giants and D-backs.
Not much left to do except bring in Kershaw. Position and pitching seems set barring an injury in spring training. Maybe a trade for prospects and alway as AF says being opportunistic and flexible if someone falls in their laps.Sending Vargas to AAA to play left field every day could make sense to have him play there next year with the big club.
Great recap Jeff!
The Dodgers have clearly won the offseason, and will come into spring training as the World Series favorites. The starting offense is very solid and better on paper than last year’s team which set the LA Dodger record for runs scored. The projected bench players of Taylor, Barnes, Rojas, and Margot add depth, experience, and defensive value, but are all right handed and limited offensively. Only Taylor had an OPS above 700 last year. I would not have traded Busch and would have given him a shot in spring training to beat out one of these four. Busch is left handed and Fangraphs projects him for a higher WAR than Teoscar this year. While Teoscar is a lefty killer, 75% of pitchers are right handed. Money is no object to the Dodgers but the four reserves are making about $35 million in AAV this year. Young players like Vargas and Pages will also challenge for a roster spot this year.
The starting pitching is still a possible Achilles heal for the Dodgers. The top four are loaded with potential, but only Buehler has pitched more than 125 innings in a MLB season, and he is coming back from TJ x 2. It is startling how much starting pitching the Dodgers have lost from last year including every one of the top 6 starters from opening day. Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, May, Noah, and Pepiot are all off the roster and/or hurt. I view Buehler as the ace of the staff even though he is only making $8 million this year after settling prior to arbitration. Hopefully, he is healthy in what will likely be his last year with the Dodgers. The Dodgers should sign Kershaw by spring training once the 60 day space is open, and that will provide some late season depth. It would be helpful to add another starting pitcher for depth to start the season. The Cubs signing of Imanaga was a fantastic deal at 4 years and $13 million per year. He would have fit perfectly this year as a veteran lefty to add to the staff. Ryu, Paxton or Lorenzen are remaining viable options to fill the 5th starter role. Pitching depth is the most important addition the Dodgers can make prior to the season. And as last year showed, you can never have enough starting pitching.
I think AF will find a way to get Brazier signed and added to the BP. Hudson will give it a go in ST, but he’s a bit long in the tooth and his knees (ACL surgery with tendonitis on one knee and MCL sprain in the other) prevented him from getting all the way back after surgery. He will probably stay behind in extended ST.
Can Freyerisen find his groove after labrum/rotator cuff surgery? He’s got great stuff and could be a terrific addition to the BP and the same can be said about Treinen.
CT3, Rojas and Margot are nice veteran bench pieces, but cost the Dodgers about $30 million. I could foresee AF sending one of them out in a trade and then signing Ryu, Paxton on a “pillow contract” and to a lessor extend maybe Lorenzen.
I don’t think Hader is necessary even though there has been a lot of chatter about the Dodgers being in the mix for him.
One of the young guns will have a great ST and push his way into the starting rotation, pushing Yarborough to the BP. My money is on Gavin Stone and YES get Kershaw signed at the start of ST, put him on the 60 day IL and let him get ready for his post all-star break return.
On Ricky Vanasco’s MLB Deal: I heard that he was offered an MLB deal with another team (I think it was the Cardinals), but he preferred to stay with LA if they would match it.
Great content. You mention “the next tier” of our minor league pitching. Is that Wrobleski, Bruns, Kopp, Casparius Heubeck, Martin, Ferris, Jang?
I kept reading that the Dodgers need a RH hitter, so they got two of them. I think it’s relevant to point out the team OPS’d .787 against LHP last year. That’s actually pretty good, and doesn’t suggest the team that won 100 and scored over 900 runs needs to change much of anything, especially after adding the best hitter in baseball.
I like Hernandez, but let’s face it, he’s past his prime and has trended down the last 3 years. He had 150 PA’s against LH pitching last year and OPS’d .817 against them. If he does it again, fine. But he had 528 PA’s against RH pitching and OPS’d .718. He projects a wRC+ of 110, which is good of course, but is it worth $23 million? $23 million payment for about 3 WAR. Will Hernandez reach that?
And what is Margot’s role on this team? Platoon with Outman? I’d check his splits and projections before I say yes to that. I’d rather see Outman in every game. And there is still Vargas. That kid deserves to play. But on this team, play where?
I can’t help but feel more moves will be made and made before ST starts.
It’s hard to believe that Pitchers and Catcher will be reporting in 5 weeks or so. Here in the frozen Midwest it’s a balmy -9 this morning. Just got my Directv statement and they already started to auto bill me for MLB Extra Innings so things aren’t that far off.
Still a lot of big name free agents available as the “Hot Stove” has been like the Midwest weather, frigid for the most part league wide.
Still interested to see where Bellinger signs and wonder where Snell will go, as it looks like the Yankees have moved off him it seems like as of now.
Anxious to see Teo away from Seattle this season. The home/away splits suggest that T-Mobile Park was not a good home for him.
Hey Jeff, I know you meant Muncy, and Margot, but Mookie would have to be superman to play 2nd and 3rd simultaneously. And I have never seen Miggy Ro play the outfield. Just sayin.
BP has their top prospect list ($$$$) here:
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/87663/2024-prospects-the-top-101/
Four (4) Dodgers on it, Busch on it too.
Dalton Rushing, Jose de Paula, Nick Frasso & Thayron Liranzo.
For those following and not paying from home, Diego Cartaya was #19. Not on the list this year. He’s gotta rein that swing back in.
I am a huge closer fan, even though I recognize that the trend to have one single closer is continuing its downward trend. IMO, the Dodgers prefer the flexibility of having 4 high leverage pitchers available at the end of the game (8th and 9th). The marginal utility of adding Josh Hader for $100MM is negligible if even existent. Yeah, I had to reach back in my economics education to pull that one out.
LAD likes Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson(?), Joe Kelly for the end of the game. Neither of the two LHRP, Ferguson or Vesia, are late inning high leverage relievers, even though they will get that call from time to time. Ryan Yarbrough is a #6 starter, multi-inning reliever. A good multi-inning opener.
Treinen and Hudson do have closer experience, but we cannot be certain how they will fare this year. Graterol is not a closer. I think he is most effective in the 7th and 8th. Phillips has been a de facto closer, meaning he has more saves than others. He is probably more effective in a setup role. But he should still get the bulk of save opportunities in 2024 as the roster currently sits.
As I wrote at the end of last year, my dark horse for high leverage (closer?) at the end of this year is Kyle Hurt. His swing and miss is impressive. 21 year old Ronan Kopp is a LHRP that could get a huge boost this year by moving full time to relief. His time in the Arizona Fall League was impressive. While his 6 BB in 8.0 IP needs to be a lot better, his 15 K in those 8.0 IP was outstanding. One inning pitcher to concentrate on his plus fastball and plus slider, and he should be ready for no later than the start of the 2025 season. He could see LA some point this summer.
At what point do the Dodgers have Maddux Bruns make that same move. If he does not improve his control this year, I would look for him to move to the pen to take advantage of the big time strikeout capability. His 6+ BB/9 innings is not sustainable as a MLB pitcher. And that is an improvement. It is easier to control when you know you only have to go one inning.
If Emmet Sheehan is not in the rotation, I do believe he would be an excellent late inning reliever. He has a big strikeout capability.
I am partial to the big guys as closer. Kopp (6’7”), Sheehan (6’5”), Treinen (6’5”), Hudson (6’3”) and Hurt (6’3”) are all at least 6’3”.
How about a split MLB/MiLB deal for 29 year old LHSP Eric Lauer? He was horrible last year but was respectable for the two prior years. Maybe some time in Mark Prior’s lab gets him back on track. He did have 158.2 IP in 2022 and 118.2 in 2021. With a 6 man rotation, somewhere in between seems just about right. He does not have any options remaining so it will initially have to be a MiLB contract with a ST invite.
Great article on Austin Gauthier at a site I had never visited before, Dodgers Daily.
Would you prefer to be given a $60,000 car or two $30,000 cars? I ask because the Dodgers seem to have chosen two $30,000 cars in the International free agent signing period.
Should the Dodgers have tried to sign the best players or spread their money around? Maybe they did and their evaluations of players were different from how others ranked them.
The international signing period runs through Dec. 15, 2024.
Below is a look at which players from MLB.com’s Top 50 International Prospects list have agreed to terms with clubs, and for how much. Unless otherwise noted, clubs have not confirmed the deals.
1. Leo De Vries, SS, D.R.: Padres+ ($4.2 million) More »
2. Paulino Santana, OF, D.R.: Rangers+ ($1.3 million) More »
3. Jose Perdomo, SS, Ven.: Braves ($5 million) More »
4. Fernando Cruz, SS, D.R.: Cubs ($4 million) More »
5. Adolfo Sanchez, OF, D.R.: Reds+ ($2.7 million) More »
6. Yovanny Rodriguez, C, Ven.: Mets ($2.85 million) More »
7. Dawel Joseph, SS, D.R.: Mariners ($3.3 million) More »
8. Daiber De Los Santos, SS, D.R.: Twins ($1.9 million) More »
9. Kennew Blanco, SS, Ven.
10. Adriel Radney, OF, D.R.: D-backs ($1.85 million) More »
11. Eduardo Herrera, 3B, Ven.: White Sox More »
12. Jorge Quintana, SS, Ven.: Brewers ($1.7 million) More »
13. Robert Arias, OF, D.R.: Guardians ($1.9 million) More »
14. Emil Morales, SS, Spain: Dodgers+ ($1.9 million) More »
15. Francisco Vilorio, OF, D.R.: Yankees ($1.75 million) More »
Monday marked the open of MLB’s 2024 international signing period, one of two ways major-league teams acquire amateur talent each year. The draft you see every summer covers players born in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. Players from everywhere else in the world fall into international free agency.
Roughly 30% of current MLB players were originally signed as international free agents, including reigning MVPs Ronald Acuña Jr. Jr. and Shohei Ohtani, and other stars like Sandy Alcantara, Julio Rodríguez, and Juan Soto. Perennial contenders like the Dodgers and Yankees, teams that usually pick late in the draft, use international free agency to add high-end prospects to their farm system.