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A Little Perspective

IMO, we need a little more perspective on the lack of IP for Tyler Glasnow and the nature of his injuries.  We need to dive a little deeper into the numbers.

From 2016-2018 (with Pittsburg) – He was more of a reliever than starter.  The only reason he only had 111.2 IP in 2018 was because he only started once he was traded to Tampa Bay.  In 11 games started (all with TB after 7/30 trade), he threw 55.2 innings. That is near 5.2 innings per start, on par with 167 IP for season.  It took two starts to get stretched out.  His third start was 5.0 IP.  Of the 9 starts after the first two, Glasnow pitched 7.0 innings (twice), 6.2 IP (once), 6.0 IP (twice) , 5.1 IP (once), and 5.0 IP (once), plus 1 game he was blown out.  He never reached 100 pitches.  He was with Tampa Bay.  He was never going to get to 100 pitches.

In 2019, his first 8 starts, he had 48.1 IP (for Tampa Bay).  His ERA was 1.86 with a FIP of 2.30.  He pitched at least 5.0 innings in every start, and had 5 quality starts.  It was his May 10 start against NYY where his elbow gave way after striking out Gleyber Torres.  He came back in September but appeared only as an opener and still did very well in that role.  For the year he had a 1.78 ERA and 2.26 FIP.  But what stood out is 76 K against 14 BB.

In 2020 he was hoping the season delay would help him rest.  He pitched through the elbow injury hoping to get through the season.  He still struck out 91 and walked 22 in 57.1 IP.

In 2021, he was once again off to a great start until the elbow finally gave out for good.  In 14 starts, Glasnow tossed 88 IP (more than 6.0 IP/start).  He had 123 strikeouts against only 27 walks.  2.66 ERA and 2.77 FIP.  Not only was his UCL torn but also a flexor strain.

He missed almost all of 2022.  He came back for two late September opener starts.

In 2023, Glasnow probably pushed it a bit too much and suffered an oblique strain.  This is exactly what happened to Ryan Pepiot.  The difference was that Glasnow was out 59 days and Pepiot was out 126 days.   He came back and was a very good pitcher, especially the second half.   Including MiLB rehab, Glasnow pitched 138.1 innings.  The most innings that Ryan Pepiot has ever thrown in MiLB was 127.2.  I feel confident in predicting Walker Buehler does not pitch that many in 2024.

In the 2nd half of 2023, Glasnow averaged more than 6.0 IP (again for Tampa Bay).  He did so because he does not throw a lot of pitches.  He does not walk many and he strikes a lot out. He gets a lot of swing and miss. Since 2019, only two pitchers with 330 or more IP (only 140) have had more K/9 than Tyler Glasnow;  Jacob deGrom and Spencer Strider.

Glasnow’s 2019 -2021 was very similar to Tony Gonsolin’s 2022-2023.  They both suffered the damage, but chose to continue.  W should also probably include Walker Buehler from September 2021 through June 10, 2022.  They all tried to rehab the injury without success, and finally had to succumb to the knife.  But it was one injury for all three that lasted longer than it should have if it were only treated surgically in the beginning.

It is also fairly evident that Dustin May should not have come back in 2022 when he did.  His elbow was not ready.

Even injured, Glasnow pitched better than did both Gonsolin and Buehler with the same injuries.  Buehler probably hurt his elbow in September 2021 after overpitching.  Especially after he only pitched 36 innings in 2020.  Which is probably why the Dodgers and their doctors said NO to Buehler who wanted to pitch last year.  Also why the Dodgers and their doctors are putting Buehler on an inning limit in 2024.

It is evident to me that many pitchers do not listen to their barking arms during the season.  They pitch way beyond the time they should shut it down.  It is remarkable how pitchers like Sandy Koufax could pitch as great as he did with that elbow.  It is remarkable how great Clayton Kershaw has pitched with the number of injuries he has had and pitched through. He pitched through that shoulder injury last year until he couldn’t. These guys pitch through pain until they cannot pitch anymore.  And please, I am not comparing the pitching talents of Tyler Glasnow to Kershaw or Koufax.  They just all had a HUGE threshold for pain and could remarkably pitch through it.  As did Buehler and Gonsolin.

Nobody here or on any blog has reviewed any medical information on Tyler Glasnow.  Nobody here has spoken to Tyler Glasnow or have any idea how his elbow is.  I have not heard even one baseball pundit on MLB network or any publication (Athletic, ESPN, SI, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Bleacher Report…) not say that Tyler Glasnow has elite talent.  Even Casey Porter (Dodgers Daily) who has not seen a Dodger Prospect that he does not believe will become an All Star, believes that Glasnow was a good trade.  He is just excited to see what Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca can do with Tampa Bay, as am I.

I trust that AF/BG have seen the medicals, have had their doctors review the medicals and give their opinion, have spoken to Glasnow, have spoken to Mark Prior (and staff), and have made the determination that Glasnow can pitch at an elite level for 4 or 5 years.  And yet there are those on blogs who do not have that information but still determine that Glasnow is not going to be a good pitcher, or cannot pitch 150 innings.

Of course the Dodgers liked Ryan Pepiot.  He would have been in the rotation if he were still with LAD.  In the #4 or #5 slot, but in the rotation.  The Dodgers have Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Kyle Hurt, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, River Ryan, and Michael Grove all MLB ready or very very near MLB ready.  Is everyone convinced that the Dodgers do not view Emmet Sheehan as a better long term option for the rotation?  Emmet is 2 years younger.  Or that they do not believe Stone, Frasso, or Ryan are better options long term.  Two (Frasso and Ryan) are still just learning to be pitchers.  Tampa Bay does not have 6 pitchers in their farm system MLB ready that are comparable to Ryan Pepiot.

If both Glasnow and Pepiot are at their best, Glasnow will be a better pitcher.    Do fans prefer Pepiot because he was drafted by the Dodgers and matriculated through their system to reach MLB?  Could it be one of loyalty?  Do fans not want any other pitcher through FA or trade so that Stone, Frasso, Hurt, Ryan…can all get the chance to get into the rotation?  How does Stone become the #4 pitcher in the rotation and win ROY if he is not put into the rotation?  Or that Deluca should be the RF platoon because he is a Dodger prospect?

I am in agreement with Badger, AF is not done.  What does that mean?  I have no idea.  None of us do.  Are they still in on Yamamoto?  I read up in Northern California that Farhan does not believe the Giants will sign Yamamoto which is why they pivoted to Jung Hoo Lee.  They overpaid (in most opinions) because they did not want to be outbid, especially San Diego.

Most believe it is down to NYY and LAD for Yamamoto.  I am not convinced that NYM will not come back and blow him away with an offer he cannot refuse.

I do believe AF/BG know where they stand with Yamamoto.  Did they purposely pivot to Glasnow?  TB was not going to trade him to Baltimore or NYY or Boston (same division).  Neither Cincinnati  nor San Diego would probably assume that $25MM contract payment for one year.  Glasnow is the one pitcher in MLB that is a difference maker whereby the field that could be in play for him is greatly reduced.

I am sure that AF/BG has already learned of what Milwaukee wants in return for Corbin Burnes and what CWS wants in return for Dylan Cease.  How do we know that AF/BG have not already determined that the asking price is too much.  Baltimore, Cincinnati, and San Diego all want SP and all three teams can offer much more than the Dodgers IF THEY WANT TO.   AF/BG know that as well.

I am assuming that is also true with Miami for Jesús Luzardo, although I am hopeful that the Dodgers look VERY hard at finding a match for him.  Some are already speculating that Miami is asking for Jackson Holliday in return.  They can ask, but then they have to get realistic.  Or maybe not.  They got a batting champion for Pablo Lopez.  What can they expect for Luzardo with even more team control (3 years)?

In FA, it takes two to make an agreement.  The Dodgers wanted Aaron Nola.  Aaron Nola did not want the Dodgers.

You cannot just say, “sign Yamamoto and Imanaga”.  If Yamamoto is a mercenary in the mold of Zack Greinke, he is going to go to the team that gives him $1 more than the next team.  He is already reported to have a NYY offer of $304MM for 9 years.  He probably does not want any deferrals.  He does not have the “supplemental” income that Ohtani has.  Cohen is probably waiting for the last offer to make his “last” offer.  Maybe AF/BG is staying in it because they not only want Yamamoto, but if they do not get him, they are going to make sure that whoever does is going to pay.  You also need to remember that there is a posting fee for Yamamoto that is going to be very costly.

Fans may want Imanaga, but does Imanaga want the Dodgers?  He has never been linked to the Dodgers.  While the Dodgers have been concentrating on Ohtani and Yamamoto, other teams have been talking with Imanaga.

The Dodgers never approached Eduardo Rodriguez this offseason.  They are not interested in Blake Snell (per recent reports).  Maybe it is because of Scott Boras.  They say no.

The Dodgers have also never been linked to Jordan Montgomery.  He won a WS ring with Texas and is living in Boston where his wife is a medical resident in a Boston hospital.

That does not mean that AF/BG cannot pull it off for Montgomery or Imanaga.  But those pitchers have to want to pitch for the Dodgers.

And who is to say that after Yamamoto has signed, and if it is not to the Dodgers, that AF/BG revisit CWS for Dylan Cease and put together a better deal than any other team?

There is so much that goes into signing a FA or making a trade that we, as fans, have no information on.  Could it be that AF/BG believed that the best pitcher available, that they could acquire, is Tyler Glasnow?  What if it is also true that the best LHSP that they can sign is Sean Manaea?

Everyone is an independent thinker and can form opinions different from others.  For those that do not like Tyler Glasnow, I am not trying to change your opinion.  I am stating my opinion.  Since none of us have any pertinent information to form an otherwise objective opinion, we need to rely on our subjective abilities to form an opinion.  Mine is that Tyler Glasnow moves to the top of the rotation for the Dodgers.

 

 

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Dionysus

Hope you are okay.

Bobby

Awesome info, thank you so much for that!

Meanwhile, according to Jim Bowden, “The Giants and Red Sox both making a strong recent push for Yoshinubu Yamamoto both with offers more than $300 million dollars according to sources. Certainly others too making strong runs”

Bumsrap

2024 could be the year Yamamoto has his first surgery.

Badger

Small guy, throws a split finger, used to pitching once a week. Yeah, he could be a candidate.

Be safe. 25 starts. Max.

tedraymond

I look for and hope the Dodgers to go to a six man rotation this year. With the signing of Ohtani, hopefully having Yamamoto in the rotation, with Glasnow’s history, and Buehler eventually joining the staff in May/June it would make sense to go in this direction. If Kershaw signs midseason this would help him as well. Ohtani and Yamamoto are used to pitching once a week. For Yamamoto, this might be a huge selling point to signing with the Dodgers. Finally, it would give the team an opportunity to ease Sheehan, Stone, Frasso, or Knack into the starting rotation.

Badger

Yep. As you know I’ve been pushing that for a while now. I think we had something like 17 different starters last year, and it’s my take that was done because of injuries to so many in the rotation, that, again in my opinion, could have been at least somewhat alleviated if the team had set up a 6 man a few years earlier and how’s that for running a sentence a few steps further than what might have considered needed.

Bluto

Stole this from Twitter:

At the end of the day, the Dodgers swapped a small school 3rd rounder and a 25th rounder for one of the few true ace-level talents in the game. 

Hire good scouts
Hire good coaches
Hire good analytics folks
Let em cook

Any team can do this, lots choose not to.

Bluto

I’ll be as surprised if the Dodgers sign Yamamoto as I will be if they don’t sign Giolito.

Bumsrap

They will at least make sure whoever signs him will tie up lots of payroll.

Badger

There is an interesting article in the Times regarding how the Dodgers will pay for Ohtani. Simply put – sponsorships. Ohtani jerseys flying off the shelves is money split among teams, but money from jerseys and other items sold at Dodger Stadium will remain with the team. Jersey patches and field naming rights alone could pay the $46 million. Also the deferred money owed Ohtani can be invested with Guggenheim, a deal that others here are more qualified to explain.

Every time this guy is on tv there will ad placements around him. The Dodgers already sell 90% of seats but they will sell more and though it’s unknown what tickets will sell for several of the best seats in the house have already been assigned to corporate connections for over $100k each.

As was expected by many this guy is a walking high dollar ATM. Sure hope he’s able to stay on the field for the next decade.

It’s the week before Christmas and all through the league, I thought there’d be action, instead it’s Ohtani fatigue. Sorry, it’s early. I’m not warmed up yet.

I expect Giolito to come here on a the rehab contract for which the Dodgers are noted. Yamamoto? I don’t know. His price tag is getting up there. Would he be willing to…. nah.

Thomas Ernst

It’s the week before Christmas ….. terrific line

Badger

Thanks Thomas.

tedraymond

Jeff, have a speedy recovery. As usual, a very well thought out article. As Dodger fans we all hope this Glasnow signing will work out and give the team the necessary talent to the top of the rotation. As I have mentioned before Tyler is from my area and it would be cool if he had success with the Dodgers. it would help erase the stain that another local guy made with the Dodgers (Bauer).

I understand the need to trade for Glasnow, but I have a hard time reasoning the contract length and amount he was offered by the Dodgers. Certainly the team has all the medicals about Glasnow. I have to have faith in AF and his staff used that information and talked to Tyler to make the decision they did. I definitely want to be proven wrong with every aspect of this signing,

As for Yamamoto, why would he not sign with the Dodgers as long as they are in the neighborhood financially? To have a chance to play with Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman for the next several years. To play at Dodger Stadium in front of 50,000 fans almost every home game and probably packed ballparks on the road. To have a legitimate chance to play in a World Series every year. To play for an organization that is experienced, stable, and a proven track record for success. The Mets or the Yankees can’t offer him this. The Dodgers were his favorite team growing up and he has a chance to be a star on that team. Unless Cohen offers something other worldly, like $400MM for 10 years, I would be shocked if he didn’t sign with the Dodgers.

With its current issues why would anyone want to live in New York? Sure, LA has its own issues. But, LA is spread out over a large area as opposed to NY which is much more compact and vertical. And, as bad as taxes are in California, they are far worse in NY.

I guess we’ll find out this week is Yamamoto is “Greinke like” or really is a competitor and wants to win with a class organization. With Ohtani involved in the recruiting I tend to believe it will be the latter.

Carry on

Last edited 2 months ago by tedraymond
Badger

“As for Yamamoto ………….. I’d be shocked if he didn’t sign with the Dodgers”

Well said Ted, now I want to hear from STB, Jeff, the gang and Fred.

With Glasnow, Buehler, once a week Yamamoto, Miller, Sheehan, Giolito, Kershaw, Yarbrough, Stone, Frasso, Knack, Hurt and the other guy we get trading Busch, we be 6 man set through October

Last edited 2 months ago by Badger
Singing the Blue

You rang?

I wouldn’t be shocked either way on YY. Ted gave some excellent reasons why he would/should sign with us, but Yoshi might not think the way Ted does.

Money might mean everything to him.
In spite of all its faults, maybe he loves the idea of living in the Big Apple.

Maybe he’s always dreamt of living in SF. That sourdough bread is spectacular at the wharf.
Maybe he wants to live near the Liberty Bell.
Maybe he loves New England clam chowder.

We’ll probably know within the next week or so. I have my fingers crossed because I think he’s by far our best option. But whatever the outcome, I doubt I’ll be surprised.

Badger

Chowder is overrated.

The Bell means nothing to a Japanese kid.

That bread is good. But, who would want to pitch nights in that park?

Cohen had Yoshi over to his Connecticut mansion for dinner. That guy won’t be outbid, but money didn’t help winning there did it.

It’s LA. Why? Because Ted said so, that’s why.

I wonder if there are any external plans for left field and is the team really ok with a potential Muncy/Vargas platoon at third base?

Last edited 2 months ago by Badger
tedraymond

Is it really that simple? Hell, I have trouble controlling my own household.

Badger

I believe it’s common to focus on others solutions while struggling with our own.

Singing the Blue

Did they platoon Max last year? I don’t think a third base platoon is in the cards. They want Max’s bat in the lineup most every day.

The only potential spot I see for Vargas is left field.
The only potential spot I see for Busch is left field.
The most often used spot I see for CT3 is left field.

Something’s gotta give, something’s gotta give, something’s gotta give.

Bumsrap

In response to Badger’s request for our takes here is my take.

There is too much money involved for me to have a take on Yamamoto. It is purely an ownership decision, CBT threshold decision, and a projected payroll decision. Yes, Yamamoto would help the Dodgers win.

For me it’s hard to have a take on pitching decisions because any decision needs to be part of a plan. I don’t know what the Dodger plan is. I’d rather improve defense at 3rd base and get more hitting and less slugging from what Max offers.

Back to pitching. Do the Dodgers want a pitcher to go 100% for 5 innings or 90% for 6 or 7? Do they want to use a 6 pitcher rotation or stay with 5? Would they consider a piggyback system for one or more of the rotation spots? Will they sign or trade players to fit such a plan or just go for the best pitcher?

If the Dodgers go with a 6 man rotation using mostly pitchers that will be restricted to 90 pitches or 2 times through the lineup then that affects who they have in the bullpen. They will need more 2+ inning relievers that might not be able to pitch back to back games if used for multiple innings.

It can be hard to create a rotation for the playoffs because that playoff rotation needs 2 aces and 2 #2s to give them the best chance to win. But if the rotation is full of Buehlers, Glasnows, and Millers who will have limitations of innings in the regular season, the team will need pitching numbers to get through the regular season.

Using so many words to produce my take shows I don’t have a take. A good take should be much more precise.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bumsrap
Badger

“A good take should be much more precise”

Agree

(see what I did there?)

Singing the Blue

Sorry to hear you’ve been under the weather, Jeff. Hope you’re back to 100% soon.

Your post today was really excellent. I had mixed feelings when the trade went down, first about Margot, but also about Glasnow.

After reading your article, I’m much less concerned about Glasnow. First of all, I trust AF to make good decisions, but after reading through the statistics you presented, I feel much better about Tyler’s chances of success in L.A.

Just another example of the excellent work you do here. Much appreciated!

Singing the Blue

Do they have any more room for JDM, JT or Soler?
My guess is absolutely, yes. Their 2023 season will certainly lead to added revenue (season ticket sales, etc.) in 2024.
And if they sign any of them, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Having already added Eugenio Suarez and re-signed Gurriel, adding another power source in any of the three guys you mentioned will certainly make them a stronger team than last year’s World Series participant.

On top of that, they’ve added a very capable 4th starter in ERod to combine with the 3 strong pieces they already had.

Badger

With these improvements the dbacks will likely finish less than 16 games behind the Dodgers.

Max would thrive hitting only against right handers. He OPSd ,642 against LHP.

I have no idea what the Dodgers think about Vargas at this time. I only know they were high on him until he was injured. The Dodgers have LH hitters. If they still believe in Vargas, they will find a spot for him.

Singing the Blue

Max didn’t do well against southpaws last year, but for his career he’s amazingly consistent against both sides. Over .800 each way.

Badger

So you admit he’s trending down against lefties.

Ok, what’s your plan for Vargas?

Singing the Blue

My plan is for Vargas to hand Max his bat when Max hits against lefties.

Or to drive Max to the airport when Bums finally manages to trade him.

I’m going to let AF decide what to do about Vargas and Busch. I hope he keeps at least one of them but whomever that is has got to get regular at bats.

Busch could platoon with CT in left.
Vargas could play left field against southpaws with CT in center and Margot in right (I don’t think they like Taylor’s arm in right).
But neither of those solutions really makes me all that happy.

Bumsrap

With Ohtani, Dodgers fans will fill the seats for all their games in AZ as well.

Singing the Blue

Does this mean we’re asking Az to pay part of Shohei’s salary?

Singing the Blue

Here’s a short segment of an interview that Glasnow did with regard to his injury and subsequent surgery.

Hearing this makes me feel even better about his potential for success here and I would guess that AF probably factored this information into his decision to trade for him.

He didn’t pile up innings with the Pirates because a lot of his work was in relief.

When the Rays had him start, he was pitching with an injured arm for almost the whole time. Not a bunch of injuries, but one injury that was never properly diagnosed.

Bumsrap

I am guessing Margot will platoon with Heyward in RF and not with Outman in CF. Margot will still get playing time in CF to give Outman a breather and probably get some time in LF as well.

The Dodgers might want a lefty bat to platoon in LF.

Yamamoto now looking at $375MM and 10 years. He is not a big guy and throws a lot of splitters which as I understand it, puts more strain on an arm than most other pitches. Would he defer $12MM annually where he would receive $25MM annually and $120MM at the end of his contract?

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