IMO, we need a little more perspective on the lack of IP for Tyler Glasnow and the nature of his injuries. We need to dive a little deeper into the numbers.
From 2016-2018 (with Pittsburg) – He was more of a reliever than starter. The only reason he only had 111.2 IP in 2018 was because he only started once he was traded to Tampa Bay. In 11 games started (all with TB after 7/30 trade), he threw 55.2 innings. That is near 5.2 innings per start, on par with 167 IP for season. It took two starts to get stretched out. His third start was 5.0 IP. Of the 9 starts after the first two, Glasnow pitched 7.0 innings (twice), 6.2 IP (once), 6.0 IP (twice) , 5.1 IP (once), and 5.0 IP (once), plus 1 game he was blown out. He never reached 100 pitches. He was with Tampa Bay. He was never going to get to 100 pitches.
In 2019, his first 8 starts, he had 48.1 IP (for Tampa Bay). His ERA was 1.86 with a FIP of 2.30. He pitched at least 5.0 innings in every start, and had 5 quality starts. It was his May 10 start against NYY where his elbow gave way after striking out Gleyber Torres. He came back in September but appeared only as an opener and still did very well in that role. For the year he had a 1.78 ERA and 2.26 FIP. But what stood out is 76 K against 14 BB.
In 2020 he was hoping the season delay would help him rest. He pitched through the elbow injury hoping to get through the season. He still struck out 91 and walked 22 in 57.1 IP.
In 2021, he was once again off to a great start until the elbow finally gave out for good. In 14 starts, Glasnow tossed 88 IP (more than 6.0 IP/start). He had 123 strikeouts against only 27 walks. 2.66 ERA and 2.77 FIP. Not only was his UCL torn but also a flexor strain.
He missed almost all of 2022. He came back for two late September opener starts.
In 2023, Glasnow probably pushed it a bit too much and suffered an oblique strain. This is exactly what happened to Ryan Pepiot. The difference was that Glasnow was out 59 days and Pepiot was out 126 days. He came back and was a very good pitcher, especially the second half. Including MiLB rehab, Glasnow pitched 138.1 innings. The most innings that Ryan Pepiot has ever thrown in MiLB was 127.2. I feel confident in predicting Walker Buehler does not pitch that many in 2024.
In the 2nd half of 2023, Glasnow averaged more than 6.0 IP (again for Tampa Bay). He did so because he does not throw a lot of pitches. He does not walk many and he strikes a lot out. He gets a lot of swing and miss. Since 2019, only two pitchers with 330 or more IP (only 140) have had more K/9 than Tyler Glasnow; Jacob deGrom and Spencer Strider.
Glasnow’s 2019 -2021 was very similar to Tony Gonsolin’s 2022-2023. They both suffered the damage, but chose to continue. W should also probably include Walker Buehler from September 2021 through June 10, 2022. They all tried to rehab the injury without success, and finally had to succumb to the knife. But it was one injury for all three that lasted longer than it should have if it were only treated surgically in the beginning.
It is also fairly evident that Dustin May should not have come back in 2022 when he did. His elbow was not ready.
Even injured, Glasnow pitched better than did both Gonsolin and Buehler with the same injuries. Buehler probably hurt his elbow in September 2021 after overpitching. Especially after he only pitched 36 innings in 2020. Which is probably why the Dodgers and their doctors said NO to Buehler who wanted to pitch last year. Also why the Dodgers and their doctors are putting Buehler on an inning limit in 2024.
It is evident to me that many pitchers do not listen to their barking arms during the season. They pitch way beyond the time they should shut it down. It is remarkable how pitchers like Sandy Koufax could pitch as great as he did with that elbow. It is remarkable how great Clayton Kershaw has pitched with the number of injuries he has had and pitched through. He pitched through that shoulder injury last year until he couldn’t. These guys pitch through pain until they cannot pitch anymore. And please, I am not comparing the pitching talents of Tyler Glasnow to Kershaw or Koufax. They just all had a HUGE threshold for pain and could remarkably pitch through it. As did Buehler and Gonsolin.
Nobody here or on any blog has reviewed any medical information on Tyler Glasnow. Nobody here has spoken to Tyler Glasnow or have any idea how his elbow is. I have not heard even one baseball pundit on MLB network or any publication (Athletic, ESPN, SI, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Bleacher Report…) not say that Tyler Glasnow has elite talent. Even Casey Porter (Dodgers Daily) who has not seen a Dodger Prospect that he does not believe will become an All Star, believes that Glasnow was a good trade. He is just excited to see what Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca can do with Tampa Bay, as am I.
I trust that AF/BG have seen the medicals, have had their doctors review the medicals and give their opinion, have spoken to Glasnow, have spoken to Mark Prior (and staff), and have made the determination that Glasnow can pitch at an elite level for 4 or 5 years. And yet there are those on blogs who do not have that information but still determine that Glasnow is not going to be a good pitcher, or cannot pitch 150 innings.
Of course the Dodgers liked Ryan Pepiot. He would have been in the rotation if he were still with LAD. In the #4 or #5 slot, but in the rotation. The Dodgers have Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Kyle Hurt, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, River Ryan, and Michael Grove all MLB ready or very very near MLB ready. Is everyone convinced that the Dodgers do not view Emmet Sheehan as a better long term option for the rotation? Emmet is 2 years younger. Or that they do not believe Stone, Frasso, or Ryan are better options long term. Two (Frasso and Ryan) are still just learning to be pitchers. Tampa Bay does not have 6 pitchers in their farm system MLB ready that are comparable to Ryan Pepiot.
If both Glasnow and Pepiot are at their best, Glasnow will be a better pitcher. Do fans prefer Pepiot because he was drafted by the Dodgers and matriculated through their system to reach MLB? Could it be one of loyalty? Do fans not want any other pitcher through FA or trade so that Stone, Frasso, Hurt, Ryan…can all get the chance to get into the rotation? How does Stone become the #4 pitcher in the rotation and win ROY if he is not put into the rotation? Or that Deluca should be the RF platoon because he is a Dodger prospect?
I am in agreement with Badger, AF is not done. What does that mean? I have no idea. None of us do. Are they still in on Yamamoto? I read up in Northern California that Farhan does not believe the Giants will sign Yamamoto which is why they pivoted to Jung Hoo Lee. They overpaid (in most opinions) because they did not want to be outbid, especially San Diego.
Most believe it is down to NYY and LAD for Yamamoto. I am not convinced that NYM will not come back and blow him away with an offer he cannot refuse.
I do believe AF/BG know where they stand with Yamamoto. Did they purposely pivot to Glasnow? TB was not going to trade him to Baltimore or NYY or Boston (same division). Neither Cincinnati nor San Diego would probably assume that $25MM contract payment for one year. Glasnow is the one pitcher in MLB that is a difference maker whereby the field that could be in play for him is greatly reduced.
I am sure that AF/BG has already learned of what Milwaukee wants in return for Corbin Burnes and what CWS wants in return for Dylan Cease. How do we know that AF/BG have not already determined that the asking price is too much. Baltimore, Cincinnati, and San Diego all want SP and all three teams can offer much more than the Dodgers IF THEY WANT TO. AF/BG know that as well.
I am assuming that is also true with Miami for Jesús Luzardo, although I am hopeful that the Dodgers look VERY hard at finding a match for him. Some are already speculating that Miami is asking for Jackson Holliday in return. They can ask, but then they have to get realistic. Or maybe not. They got a batting champion for Pablo Lopez. What can they expect for Luzardo with even more team control (3 years)?
In FA, it takes two to make an agreement. The Dodgers wanted Aaron Nola. Aaron Nola did not want the Dodgers.
You cannot just say, “sign Yamamoto and Imanaga”. If Yamamoto is a mercenary in the mold of Zack Greinke, he is going to go to the team that gives him $1 more than the next team. He is already reported to have a NYY offer of $304MM for 9 years. He probably does not want any deferrals. He does not have the “supplemental” income that Ohtani has. Cohen is probably waiting for the last offer to make his “last” offer. Maybe AF/BG is staying in it because they not only want Yamamoto, but if they do not get him, they are going to make sure that whoever does is going to pay. You also need to remember that there is a posting fee for Yamamoto that is going to be very costly.
Fans may want Imanaga, but does Imanaga want the Dodgers? He has never been linked to the Dodgers. While the Dodgers have been concentrating on Ohtani and Yamamoto, other teams have been talking with Imanaga.
The Dodgers never approached Eduardo Rodriguez this offseason. They are not interested in Blake Snell (per recent reports). Maybe it is because of Scott Boras. They say no.
The Dodgers have also never been linked to Jordan Montgomery. He won a WS ring with Texas and is living in Boston where his wife is a medical resident in a Boston hospital.
That does not mean that AF/BG cannot pull it off for Montgomery or Imanaga. But those pitchers have to want to pitch for the Dodgers.
And who is to say that after Yamamoto has signed, and if it is not to the Dodgers, that AF/BG revisit CWS for Dylan Cease and put together a better deal than any other team?
There is so much that goes into signing a FA or making a trade that we, as fans, have no information on. Could it be that AF/BG believed that the best pitcher available, that they could acquire, is Tyler Glasnow? What if it is also true that the best LHSP that they can sign is Sean Manaea?
Everyone is an independent thinker and can form opinions different from others. For those that do not like Tyler Glasnow, I am not trying to change your opinion. I am stating my opinion. Since none of us have any pertinent information to form an otherwise objective opinion, we need to rely on our subjective abilities to form an opinion. Mine is that Tyler Glasnow moves to the top of the rotation for the Dodgers.