It is great to be a Dodgers fan. It is great to have an owner that not only has an astute business sense, but also an extremely keen desire to win, and is willing to put up the necessary $$$ to help win another WS championship. Will they? You have to play the 162 game season AND win the post season tournament? Much to the chagrin of most other baseball owners and fans alike, at the very least the LAD owners have done everything possible to do just that.
One of the big disappointing teams for me this year is the Baltimore Orioles. As it turns out, with the problems facing NYY and Boston, this was the year Baltimore could have gone all in. Instead they replaced Corbin Burnes with 41 year old Charlie Morton. They replaced Anthony Santander with a Tyler O’Neill. If Baltimore was willing to go to 5 years for Santander, they could have had him at a lesser AAV than O’Neill. Santander signed a 5 year deal for a NPV of $68.6MM while O’Neill signed a 3 year deal for $49.5MM. Santander is 8 months older than O’Neill, so age should not have been a consideration.
David Rubenstein purchased the Orioles last year (1/31/24) for $1.725B. Rubenstein’s net worth is $3.8B. The Orioles management did not do anything to enhance their chances to win at the deadline last year, and have seemingly gone backwards this year.
Compare that to Mark Walter and Guggenheim Partners. Walter, et.al. purchased the Dodgers on May 1, 2012. A little over 3.5 months later, Walter approved a 5 for 4 trade to the Boston Red Sox…the Nick Punto trade. The Dodgers acquired RHP Josh Beckett, OF, Carl Crawford, 1B Adrián González, and INF Nick Punto for 1B James Loney, INF Ivan De Jesus, RHP Allen Webster, RHP Rubby De La Rosa, and OF Jerry Sands. That trade put the Dodgers in a touchy debt to revenue ratio predicament. IMO that is an ownership group that wanted to win.
On January 22, 2013, Time Warner Cable signed a deal to partner with the Dodgers to form a new regional sports network (RSN), which would be majority-owned by the Dodgers. On January 28, the Dodgers and Time Warner Cable signed a 25-year broadcast agreement valued at $8.35 billion, the Cadillac of RSNs, and the foundation of future transactions.
Baltimore is a team that is 2 years removed from a 101 win season, and one year from a 91 win season, in a tough AL East Division. Besides losing Burnes, they knew they were going to be without RHSP Kyle Bradish this year. John Means was a free agent (signed with Cleveland), and is always questionable anyway. He is rehabbing from a 2nd TJ surgery and will probably be out all year. Top pitching prospect, Grayson Rodriguez, had shoulder and lat/teres issues and did not pitch after July 31. As it turns out, Rodriguez has elbow inflammation this Spring requiring a cortisone shot. Precursor to TJ???
The Orioles projected rotation is:
- Zach Eflin
- Charlie Morton
- Dean Kremer
- Tomoyuki Sugano
- Cade Povich
Doesn’t exactly strike fear in opposing batters. They also do not have any MLB ready SP of note in the system.
The Dodgers had questions in their rotation, and yet they still went out and acquired Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki. They also bolstered the back end of their bullpen with Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. The Orioles? They are seemingly going backwards. This was the year that Baltimore could have made a splash to put themselves in a win now situation. Perhaps winning is not the top criterion for the billionaire owner.
I continue to read that Baltimore needs pitching and should be pushing to get Bobby Miller. Do not disagree on either point. But the Orioles upper level middle infield prospect cupboard is bare. The Orioles second first round pick last year (#32 overall), Griff O’Ferrall is scheduled for A+. Griff is the O’s #7 prospect with a 50FV (Future Value). The O’s have 4 other SS/2B prospects, all at A+ or lower, and all 20 years old and younger. All have a 40 FV.
Alex Freeland is 23, reached AAA, and as a 55 FV. He is more MLB ready than any of the O’s middle infield prospects. The Dodgers other middle infield prospects are better prospects than the O’s. Emil Morales, Kellon Lindsey, and Joendry Vargas all have a 50FV, equal to the Orioles top SS prospect.
The O’s do have one other infield prospect, 3B/1B Coby Mayo. The O’s are far more likely to move Mountcastle or O’Hearn thus giving Mayo a clear runway at MLB than they are trading Mayo. Mayo has a strong arm, but lacks accuracy at 3B, thus 1B seems more likely. Mayo has a 70 power grade, so his bat plays well at either corner. Mayo is the one Baltimore infielder that I believe the Dodgers could in fact entice Mike Elias to sit up and listen to AF/BG.
FWIW, Mayo (#103) was drafted 3 slots after the Dodgers drafted Jake Vogel (#100) in 2020 draft.
The rest of the O’s infield are MLB players: Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, and Ramón Urías. Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg are All Stars. Holliday is 3 years removed from being a 1/1 draft pick. Urías is a younger but not better Miguel Rojas. I do not see Baltimore trading any of Henderson, Westburg, or Holliday.
Then again as far as Mayo being traded, who was the last Orioles top prospect who was traded? They just do not trade their top prospects. They would trade Urías. Miller straight up for Mayo will not get it done. Just for fun I checked the trade simulator. The simulator says that Miller, Joendry Vargas, and Nick Frasso is a slight underpay for Coby Mayo (26.5 to 28.1). There is no way AF makes that trade.
Westburg is waaaaay more lopsided. Mayo has a trade value of 28.1, while Westburg has a trade value of 64.6.
As far as trading Miller, he is at his nadir in trade value. I cannot see AF/BG trading Miller just now. But Coby Mayo might change their minds.
Great stuff Jeff. I would love to see LA get Holliday, but I know that isn’t happening. Just for fun, Miguel Vargas is having an excellent spring with the bat.
Getting up early to watch the game. Should be interesting. Stadium was packed for the Dodgers workout.