Trades? Free Agent signings? There are risks with everything involved with player acquisition.
I have a different take on rentals. There was once a rental that cost the Dodgers their #1 (Alex Verdugo), #8 (Jeter Downs) and #14 (Connor Wong) that netted rental Mookie Betts. That worked out well. Max Scherzer was a rental. Yes, Trea Turner was two years, but they cost the Dodgers their #1 (Keibert Ruiz) and #2 (Josiah Gray). I do not miss any of the trio that left for Mookie, and even though the Ruiz and Gray duo are turning into top Nationals players, I would make that same trade every time.
Jordan Montgomery was a rental. That worked out well for Texas. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham were rentals. Arizona does not get to the WS without them. Francisco Lindor was a rental for NYM. MLB is chock full of rentals that did well, and those who did not. Trades are always a risk.
First it was Dylan Cease that the Dodgers were very “involved” in trade discussions for. He is not a rental, but the prospect capital was deemed to be too much. CWS asked for two top Cincinnati pitching prospects and 2 more position players. I am not sure if they were MLB position players or prospect position players. Maybe the Dodgers circle back to Cease who is almost certain to be traded this year, and he will go to whichever team gives them the best return. This has not been an AF strength.
Next up was Corbin Burnes. Yes, Corbin Burnes is a rental, but one who is more than capable of being the Game 1 Starter of the NLDS/NLCS/WS.
Before Trey Sweeney, the Dodgers had NOBODY in the wings for SS. I agree that AF would be VERY reluctant to trade Gavin Lux. For me, the Dodgers are not going to go out and trade for Willy Adames on his own. But he may have to be part of the package to acquire 29 year old RHSP Corbin Burnes, because Milwaukee would want Gavin Lux plus pitching.
Risky? 100% yes. And yet I would agree to it because of who Corbin Burnes is. Willy Adames is a darn good SS, and the Dodgers would be very happy with him at SS. BTW, maybe we fans have a problem with Adames’ strikeouts, but LAD does not.
Adames was part of the last AF Tampa Bay trade. He came to TB with Drew Smyly with David Price going to Detroit.
Adames is nowhere near the salary requirement of Seager/Turner/Correa/Lindor/Bogaerts. He is probably a shade under Dansby Swanson but a shade over Javy Baez. He would certainly be affordable enough for AF to extend. I would think that Adames would be an extension target during ST.
If they do not re-sign Adames? They can address that in 2025. But the Dodgers did win 100 games with Miggy Rojas as their primary SS in 2023. AF will find a way.
The prize they need is Corbin Burnes. Burnes would also be an extension target. Boras does not like extensions, but if his clients are amenable, he will get it done. Burnes signed with Boras because he was angry losing in arbitration with his former agent. So I am not altogether sure that he is a mercenary like Corey Seager. He is due to make $15.5MM in arbitration this year. Offer him $16MM, avoid arbitration, and be done with it. He is certainly worth 2 fWAR.
Burnes is from Bakersfield, thus AF will not have to deal with East Coast bias from when trying to extend. Tony Gonsolin was his teammate at St. Mary’s. There is a lot to like by extending with the Dodgers.
Because Gavin Lux by himself is worth quite a bit more than Adames, the additional return for Burnes could be reasonable. I am not a fan of the Trade Simulator for Aces like Corbin Burnes. They have a tendency to low ball rental Aces far more than how MLB teams see them. Burnes is a Playoff Game 1 starter. Even for a year. How much longer will Mookie and Freddie be at the top of their game?
But all of that is moot as Milwaukee is apparently telling everyone that it is highly unlikely that they will trade Burnes this winter.
Now Tyler Glasnow is the pitcher with the most chatter for the Dodgers, and he is also a true rental.
Per multiple MLB “experts” (many unnamed GMs, MLB Advance Scouts, scouting publications), Glasnow has the best stuff of any MLB pitcher when he is healthy. That has been the downside for Tyler. He has not been on the field enough.
After the 2023 All Star break, Glasnow started 13 games with 78.1 IP. That is 6.0 IP/start. For those 13 starts he had a 3.22 ERA with a very impressive 2.55 FIP. FIP differs from ERA because it focuses on the factors that the pitcher controls…strikeouts/walks/HBP/HR. Batters hit .204/.256/.302/.558 and a sustainable .283 BABIP. What the Dodgers like is hit swing and miss ability. In his last 13 starts, and 78.1 IP, he had 98 K against only 21 BB. He also surrendered only 6 HR in that time.
High strikeout, low walk, low HR, and no HBP, thus his FIP was very good. That is what the Dodgers believe they will get with Glasnow.
Of course there is risk with Glasnow. There is risk with every pitcher, but I acknowledge that with his medical history, there may be more risk with Glasnow. There is risk with Buehler/Miller/Pepiot. There will be risk if they re-sign Kershaw.
But if he is healthy, the Dodgers would have one of the top of the rotation pitchers they need for October 2024. That is the rotation they are trying to build. I will comment on the trade if one is made.
I am not afraid of rentals. The intent of the rental is to get you across the finish line. Fans may like the young pitchers on the Dodgers, but it seems clear that the Dodgers do not think they are ready to be a playoff rotation. Emmet Sheehan had a rough go in Game 1, and Ryan Pepiot never got into a game. The Dodgers chose Lance Lynn over Ryan Pepiot in a must win game.
They did not sign Shohei Ohtani to just get to the playoffs. They now need to build around Ohtani, and it starts with veteran front of the rotation pitchers.
The Dodgers do not like to give pitchers long term contracts. They have been fortunate not to need front of the rotation pitching during the AF tenure, until this season. Teams do not ordinarily trade top pitchers with multiple years of control. Pablo Lopez was traded to Minnesota with two years of control, the same control as CWS has with Dylan Cease. The cost? The 2022 AL batting champ, Luis Arráez. Arráez went on to win the NL batting crown in 2023. The Dodgers were pursuing Lopez but could not acquire him because they did not have anyone at the level of Arraez.
Where does AF/BG turn? Free agents or the trade route. Risks for both avenues.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s agent called Farhan Zaidi and advised him what Steve Cohen’s standing offer was, and Zaidi reportedly pivoted to Jung Hoo Lee. If Yamamoto wants to go with the highest bidder, I find it hard to believe that Cohen would come in 2nd. So hopefully a top offer to a team like the Dodgers will be significant.
It is also being reported that NYY has made an offer of 9 years and $304MM. Who knows if that is credible. However, it wasn’t JP Morosi or JP Hoornstra reporting.
Ryan Pepiot has been a personal favorite of mine since he was drafted. But he is not the talent of Tyler Glasnow. If he in fact is traded, I will of course be happy for Pepiot, but I would also feel that his loss might help lead the Dodgers to achieve their goal in 2024. Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, River Ryan, Justin Wrobleski are all capable of replacing Ryan. I purposely did not include Michael Grove and Kyle Hurt, as IMO the Dodgers have deduced that they are better utilized in the bullpen. Hurt could remain stretched out as a starter in OKC to start the season.
Glasnow immediately becomes an extension candidate. He is from Hart High School in Santa Clarita. He would also undoubtedly become a Qualifying Offer candidate.
There will be a top of the rotation pitcher on the roster by ST. I am hopeful for two, but one is an absolute must. And there will be prospects who will have moved on. Regardless, I am would not be afraid to roll the dice on a rental, even if it cost Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Nick Frasso, Landon Knack…
Which ones are traded, and who comes back to LAD? We will have to wait and see.
If you guys had to rank our young arms in terms of who you would hate to trade the most down to “he may not be missed” , how would you rank them? I will assume that Bobby Miller is completely off the table, so I’d rank:
1) Pepoit
2) Sheehan
3) Knack
4) Hurt
5) Stone
6) Ryan
I didn’t include the Payton Martin or Maddux Bruns A ball types in this ranking.
Works for me
I trade any of them for Burnes.
You left out Nick Frasso.
Pepiot’s so I’d go:
1. Sheehan
2. Frasso
3. Stone
4. Hurt
5. Ryan
6. Knack
I’m sure it will come as no surprise that I agree with you on rentals. It’s always about THIS YEAR with me.
As I just posted on the previous thread, my want list has Burnes, Yamamoto and Glasnow on it. I’m also suggesting a 6 man rotation, have been for a few years now as injuries are piling up on MLB pitchers.There’s a Times article this morning dealing with that very issue.
I’m ok with trading Lux and receiving Adames in return if it gets Burnes. I would take Margot if Glasnow comes with him. Whatever happens we will all be happy with it. With Ohtani doing what he did so Friedman could make moves to build a contender I’m confident AF will get it done.
Even though it’s winter, and I’m not a fan of winter, this winter feels very different. It’s good to be a Dodger fan.
I’m sorry, but I don’t understand the fascination with Tyler Glasnow. Badger has mentioned the “projections” for 2024 made by who knows. I’m not questioning Badger, as he is only the messenger, but he has suggested the projected stats were based on his 2nd half performance in 2023. If that is true then I call BS. How do ignore his injury riddled past of never starting more than 13 games or throwing more than 90 innings in those starts? Even in 2023 reaching career highs in starts with 21 with 120 innings that’s worth $25MM? Then there’s “we need a true #1 for the postseason” opinion. Really? In 10 starts he has averaged 4.5 innings along with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. This is all IF he is healthy. And he is a FA at the end of the 2024 season. A big no thank you to Glasnow.
And why Margot? He has no power (4 HR). He has a career average of .255, a OPS of .694, with a .6 WAR in 2023. He’s due to make $10M in 2024 with a mutual option for $12M in 2025 with a $2M buyout. So, that’s a $12M obligation. The team already has an overpaid player who is more productive and versatile in Chris Taylor.
The Dodgers should be adding to their starting rotation, not substituting pitchers. To give up Pepiot who has several years of control for a possible one year rental with a consistent injury history is wrong in my eyes. Sure, Pepiot was injured last year too. Will that be the first of many injuries in his career? It’s possible. We don’t know that. With Glasnow, it’s a fact he cannot stay healthy for a season. There’s no doubt that Glasnow is a superior pitcher than Pepiot as this point in their careers. The big question is availability.
Jonny Deluca has been mentioned as part of the trade. So, they’re going to consider bringing over Margot for $12M ($10M + 2025 buyout of $2M) I think Jonny has a good chance to come close to the numbers Margot produces and he only makes about $770K in 2024. He would make a nice platoon partner with Heyward in RF. If he is not successful then Taylor is available.
Pepiot and Deluca combined will make approximately $1.5M in 2024. Glasnow and Margot will cost $37M. I don’t think that huge difference in their salaries can be justified with the trade for Glasnow and Margot when you take a realistic, long term view of the situation.
I know I’ve harped on trading prospects for starting pitching. That was to add to the rotation. To take a rotation piece, Pepiot, and trade him isn’t what I had in mind. And, at this point, he is no longer a prospect.
Hopefully, AF can get Yamamoto signed in the next couple of days. If they are going to spend another $30M+ in 2024 then pay Yamamoto. And, you still have Pepiot in the rotation! Or if they still have a desire for Glasnow after signing Yamamoto then OK (like they care what I think… Lol). But, please, no Margot!
well said, and I totally agree with your logic.
I won’t cry if we get Glasnow. I’ll also feel that since Friedman rarely ever loses in trades, perhaps he knows something we don’t know
Let’s see what the final trade looks like, but if it’s exactly as “reported”, Pepiot and Deluca for Margot/Glasnow, and NO CASH coming to LA, I initially don’t like it either.
….”Friedman rarely ever loses in trades”
Neither do the Rays.
HELL NO to a Pepiot and DeLuca trade for Glasnow and Margot.
I’ll do a Taylor and Sheehan for Glasnow straight up.
I’m afraid it looks like a done deal. Glasnow and Margot. Bye bye Pepiot. I like his chances and would never have done that deal. Never. Ever.
I surely woud not trade Pepiot for one year of Glasnow. And that is one year if he stays healthy. And a doube hell no on Margot.
Sign Imanaga and Montgomery.
Glasnow and Margot for Pepiot and Deluca makes absolutely no sense both from a baseball standpoint, but from a financial standpoint. $37M for one year of Glasnow and Margot as opposed to $1.6M for Pepiot and Deluca. Use the money to get Imanaga and/or Montgomery.
Imanaga, Montgomery, Yamamoto…. Hell AF, sign them all!! Lol.
Yes, and defer most of their salary.
I’m responding only to what I’m reading. If it’s just me and Friedman interested in Glasnow, I’ll stand with him. As for who goes back, again, I’ll leave that up to Andy.
I’ve stated several times if it’s up to me I go Burnes, Yamamoto, maybe even Imanaga then Glasnow. As for not believing projections, I would think every single office personnel who is paid to do these things has a book of algorithmic projections on every player on the planet. If you have no projections how the hell are you supposed to know what to pay anybody? These contracts are ALL figured on projections. Glasnow, with electric stuff, is allegedly healthy for the first time in years. If it’s him my stand alone buddy Friedman wants then I’m on board.
I don’t disagree with projections and understand the need for them for the reason you stated. I just disagree with the Glasnow projection. Obviously, AF has way more information and insight than I would ever have. But, on the surface and as a fan, I don’t like the trade. I totally understand your point of view. That’s what this site is all about.
Carry on
It seems to me that if the Glasnow/Margot for Pepiot/DeLuca trade was going to happen, it would have happened by now, unless they’re just going back and forth about how much money the Rays are going to kick in to the deal.
Meanwhile, as word gets out that the trade is “on the verge” every other team that has interest in Glasnow texts a stronger offer than the last one they made.
I have no idea if Andrew has any idea of whether he’s going to get YY, but he might be hoping to delay this until he knows. Not getting Yamamoto might make him a little more desperate. And maybe the Rays are willing to wait for that also while at the same time fielding ever more interesting offers from other teams.
If you’re a GM holding Glasnow, Cease or Burnes, you’re in a very good spot right now and will be even better off once Yamamoto is off the board.
Maybe we should sign Imanaga while we’re waiting for a resolution on the other stuff. It’s the kind of move the Braves would make……………….or might still make.
Sign Imanaga and Montgomery and we are set.
I agree with your take. CWS has already said they are waiting on the top FA pitchers coming off the boards before they re-entertain trading Dylan Cease.
I can see Tampa Bay using the same strategy. They are in no hurry to make a deal today unless someone overpays. As long as the teams needing top pitching have not signed anyone, the urgency and overpay will become more apparent.
I will be shocked if Corbin Burnes is traded this winter unless someone takes Adames or Yelich and includes a SS prospect. Although I am sure that Baltimore and San Diego will make every effort to make a deal. But it has to make sense for Milwaukee as well.
Where I disagree is that I do not see AF getting desperate. I think he learned his lesson with Bauer. If it does not make sense to him, he is not going to make the trade.
Many of the pitching hungry teams have better prospects or young controllable MLB players willing to trade than do the Dodgers.
It’s done.
I learned something today. The new collective bargaining agreement stipulates that the remainder of an acquired player’s contract counts against the luxury tax rather than the original contract’s AAV. Thus, Glasnow would come with a $25MM AAV and not a $15.175 AAV he has with TB.
I read that from a very reliable source. I did not actually go the the CBA to verify.
That’s odd. Also makes Glasnow maybe a bit too expensive for teams that care about going over the limit. He’s a rental and if Ted is right about him nobody is going to take him on unless Tampa sweetens the deal.
It appears nothing significant is going to happen until Yamamoto makes his decision.
Heyman:
“My understanding is the Dodgers aren’t that enthused about Manuel Margot. They’d be more enthused if it was Randy Arozarena, but that’s a lot more prospects.”
“I’m not sure if Margot will be part of this package.” https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f440.svg
The Dodgers have a lot more prospects! Most will never play for the Dodgers.
They’re losing value.
I just learned this AM that Jordan Montgomery is living in Boston, and his wife is a Resident in one of the local Boston hospitals. He is not coming across the country to pitch for the Dodgers. Right now, Boston has to be the prohibitive favorite to sign Montgomery. They still believe they have a chance with Yamamoto, but once he signs elsewhere, Boston will quickly pivot to Montgomery.
Imanaga is not considered a front line starting pitcher. If you are looking to improve over Buehler and Miller (which they have said they want to do), then Imanaga is not the answer. Imanaga instead of Giolito or Stroman or any of the other 2nd tier SP would be fine. But Imanaga over front line starters? I don’t think so.
The likelihood of Burnes being traded at a market value return is probably non-existent. The closest the Dodgers get to Burnes this year is if Milwaukee is out of it by the trade deadline, and AF overpays for ½ year. San Diego and Baltimore could be teams to actually put a package together for Burnes.
Shane Bieber is no longer an Ace, even when he is healthy.
If you are afraid to lose Pepiot and Deluca for Glasnow and Margot, then you are going to hate what CWS is asking for Dylan Cease with 2 years and sub $10MM arbitration salary in 2024.
Some of the teams looking for top of the rotation pitching:
Baltimore – Most likely trade route
San Diego – Most likely trade route
Cincinnati – Most likely trade route
Chicago Cubs – Can go FA or trade
San Francisco – Most likely FA
NYY – Most likely FA
NYM – Most likely FA
Boston – Most likely FA
I am sure there are others.
Since the majority here do not want Glasnow, and Burnes is unlikely to be moved, that leaves Baltimore, San Diego, Cincinnati, and Cubs all in on Dylan Cease. Also Atlanta has said they are going to strongly pursue Cease. I just do not believe they have nearly enough to pull off that level of a trade.
If any of the Baltimore, San Diego, Cincinnati, or Cubs want Cease, the Dodgers cannot compete at the prospect level (or MLB) as those teams can. I do not know if he is available, but with Cincinnati signing Jeimer Candelario, that technically makes Noelvi Marte a potential trade option. The Dodgers do not have anyone near the Marte level.
Many still believe the Dodgers are the favorite to sign Yamamoto, However, Yamamoto reportedly has a $304MM 9 year deal on the table from NYY. I still believe it will not be $$$ that will keep Yamamoto away from NYM. I assume the Giants are very much involved. I do not consider Cubs or BoSox realistic options. But they will not pivot until Yamamoto signs elsewhere. So if not Yamamoto, who goes to the top of the LAD rotation?
Here are a TON of possibilities (non Cease and non Glasnow) from the always fun trade simulator!
They all “work”
Andy Pages, Sheehan, Rushing and Payton Martin
FOR
Jesus Luzardo and a Competitive Balance (“B”) pick
Pages, Busch and Sheehan
to SEATTLE FOR
Andres Munoz and Luis Castillo
Busch and frasso
FOR
Trevor Rogers
Busch
to TORONTO FOR
Kikuchi, Espinal and Rojas
Grove, Frasso and Wrobleski
to KC for
Singer and Hoffman
10000000000000000% non of these happen, but let’s have fun pretending.
I assume you’re just throwing out trades and not answering Jeff’s question about who goes to the top of the Dodger rotation if not Yamamoto.
Singer, Kikuchi and Rogers are certainly not top of the rotation guys. Luzardo might be if he would be more consistent from one season to the next.
As far as the Castillo and Munoz trade for Pages, Busch and Sheehan, I’m all in. Do it today.
Just throwing out trades. I fully believe the Dodgers will grab a top to top mid pitcher, just no clue who.
that said, I am bullish on Singer. I think with the Dodgers development, he can grow into a Glasgow arsenal
I too like Singer, but it looks like KC believes they can win the worst division in MLB. Who are we to say no. Singer slots into #3 for KC behind Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo.
Top to top mid pitcher. It is the latter that concerns me. If it is top mid, I am not convinced that will be enough.
If Glasnow is going to be so costly then teams wanting Pepiot should be overpaying for him as well.
It works both ways.
Question is do teams very much want Pepiot? Or do they want Pepiot if they’re giving up a Glasnow/Cease/Burnes? I think it’s probably the latter.
Do you really think Pepiot has the same stuff as Glasnow? Just asking. Glasnow did pitch more innings than did Pepiot last year, and more than Pepiot has thrown in his career.
Well, whatever we think the deal is done.
Glasnow/Margot for Pepoit/Deluca and Glasnow expected to sign extension
Rays win!
That’s debatable.
I mean the Rays win most of their trades, but Jeff D nailed this. There are a ton of teams looking for pitching and few top-level pitchers.
The overpay (and I do think it’s an overpay even with the extension) could have been seen.
I think trading Pepiot at a highpoint in his value is a quintessential Friedman move.
Glasgow’s stuff is great. His reliability? Less so.
This is, I’m predicting it now, is going to be the year of load management for pitchers on the Dodgers.
How? Glasnow is a better pitcher than is Pepiot and Margot is better than Deluca. Glasnow is now apparently not a rental. What’s not to like? And I say that with having Pepiot as a favorite of mine.
I hope Pepiot has a great start to the next phase of his career with Tampa Bay.
That still does not take them out of the Yamamoto sweepstakes. There is also 2nd tier reclamation pitchers who could be signed. Is Giolito out of the picture?
I view trades by looking at the individuals’ ceiling, and how that may translate into the next season. I may be in the minority, but I am very happy with this trade. Glasnow and Margot will be better for the Dodgers in 2024 than would Pepiot and Deluca.
Yeah, it’s an overplay but why not overpay in this situation for an elite arm?
Kershaw is more elite. Elite is a category proven over time. Glasnow is not elite.
Margot is a mediocre player. His OPS is below .700. I would rather watch Deluca develop than watch this clown play. He does not fill the role of a RH power hitting outfielder which they need. He is better than Deluca? He has more experience, but no one knows what Deluca might become. The deal is contingent on Glasnow signing an extension. I am hoping he doesn’t. LA got fleeced on this one with an injury prone pitcher and an outfielder who brings zip to the table. I disagree with you on this one Jeff. If Glasnow stays healthy, and that is a huge if, otherwise he is just another sore arm waiting to happen. And Margot, has any one forgotten his ill timed attempted steal of home in the 2020 World Series. I haven’t, He does not make the Dodgers better.
I’m with you on this one Jeff. I like the trade.
Glasnow
Buehler
Miller
Pepiot (NOT)
Sheehan
Yarbrough / Stone
Include Buehler NOT. Dodgers have already stated that he will be held back to be ready for the post season. Which is Dodger talk for Buehler probably not pitching in 2024. So, with the virtual assurance that Glasnow will be limited this season, the rotation is “projected” to be questionable at best. Please, sign Yamamoto Mr. Friedman!
Ditto on everything that Bear feels about the trade and players involved.
Right on!
Buehler has to pitch some. He is not going to sit on the sidelines all year and then just go full bore in the playoffs. And they still have to get there first. What it does mean is Buehler will probably be a right handed Blake Snell. Limited innings.
I think we are out off the Yamamoto sweepstakes.
Not according to most pundits. They believe it is between the Dodgers and Yankees. Dodgers were the kids favorite team.
I hope you are right Bear. I’m not crazy about this trade. Mostly the Margot part. Trading Deluca opens the door for Pages.
Interesting stats on Margot he may not be seeing the ball well in the Trop. Here are his home and road splits last year.
.219/.274/.315/.589 at the Trop
.303/.341/.430/.771 on the road. I’ll take those numbers for one year as a platoon with Heyward.
Doesn’t matter to me. Guy’s career OPS is under .700. That is suck territory. What was his excuse in San Diego???
I absolutely hate this trade. Glasnow, ok, but Margot???? The guy brings nothing to the table. I would have rather kept Pepiot.
I think you might be pleasantly surprised on Margot, Bear.
As Ron Fairly points out above his splits away from The Trop are just fine and his splits against lefties for his career are also fine.
We obviously had to take him to get Glasnow so if Tyler can stay semi-healthy the trade will be a good one. Yes, I realize we have no reason to expect Glasnow to stay healthy, but………………………glass half full, my man.
Now all we need to do is get Willy Adames for shortstop and Bear might lose his mind completely
I would implode.
And I just checked Margot’s splits at Dodger Stadium.
Roughly 90 at bats, OPS = .855
Tell me then, what was his excuse when he was with the Padres. Supposed to be a great hitters park. His best year was when he was 22. Nope, I think they could have found a better bat on the free agent market.
I think AF should have deferred.
First a great anecdote about Glasgow:
https://x.com/jeffpassan/status/1341059030383538184
then some good stats:
Among all starters (140) with 250+ IP since 2020, Glasnow is:
3rd in K/9 (12.7)
7th in FIP (3.03)
3rd in xFIP (2.73)
4th in BAA (1.95)
3rd SwStr% (16.1%)
2nd in CSW% (33%)
1st in O-Contact% (34%)
2nd in Stuff+ (134)
Calling Manuel Margot a clown is a little harsh, and IMO not at all true. Margot’s career against LHP is .281/.341/.420/.760.for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties. That is an above average ML hitter against LHP.
WRISP last year – .293/.322/.390/.712
Late and close last year – .302/.400/.372/.772
If you like Jonny Deluca, great. But he doesn’t all of a sudden become better by calling Margot a clown.
If you look at Margot’s clutch stats for last year, the two weakest metrics were: Margin> 4 runs and Ahead. So I would agree that Margot will not be helpful when LAD is bludgeoning their opponent.
We already saw his home and away stats.
He has no power to speak of. So he is not the RH power bat many were looking for. I think the Dodgers have enough power to make up for Margot’s lack of power.
He is considered to be a GG caliber defender in RF. He had a down year in 2023 largely due to recovering from a significant patellar tendon strain injury in 2022. That should not be an issue this year.
I hope Jonny Deluca has a fantastic career, but he was never going to be anything more than a platoon OF for the Dodgers. The same was true for Luke Raley (also with Tampa Bay), who had a very good year in 2023 for the Rays; a year he would not have had with the Dodgers.
Andy Pages is the prospect LAD future in the OF.
I do not believe the Dodgers see a whole lot of difference in Ryan Pepiot compared to Emmet Sheehan (who is 2 years younger), Nick Frasso, Gavin Stone, Kyle Hurt…You cannot keep them all.
The Dodgers also got $4MM to offset Margot’s salary. That puts him at the David Peralta salary of last year.
Ok, not a clown, but not an upgrade either. I am not impressed with a career OPS under .700 no matter how good his glove is.
Really happy for Deluca and Pepiot. Now they will get a chance to play everyday and show what they can do.
Yes, good for Tampa Bay and those kids.
I said earlier I would do this trade and the reasons why have been explained clearly by Jeff and STB. This trade makes sense to me. Of course we won’t know how it will work for months but I believe the team is better today. I also believe Friedman is far from being done.
I agree that AF is probably not done. But, with all the existing pitching talent that we have, is there no optimism in the FO? Are all of our prospects trade fodder? That is a massive fuck up if true. We still won 100 games with all of our broken pitchers and farm hands.
Not all of them. They know who they want to keep.
Perhaps that is what they would like you to believe. I don’t think that is always the case.
How does one trade bring you to a state of zero optimism?!!?!?
cheer up!
You have to trade something to get something
The free-agent prices this offseason reinforce that young, controllable starters are the game’s most treasured commodity
Maybe for many teams but not necessarily for the Dodgers. Not at this time in their history. They are building for the now.
Looking at our prospects lists this morning there is a plethora of young talent at several positions. Our #2 and #3 prospects, Busch and Cartaya can be moved now and won’t be missed. Which of the 3 top rated catchers do we keep? Hurt might be used out of the pen next year, Frasso could be ready to pitch, or be moved, and the same is true for Martin, Kopp, Bruns and Knack. Down the list there other names that some roto sites mention, Duran, Huebeck, some, like 18 year old Korean pitcher Hyun Seok Jang and Edwardo Quintero, who at 18 just OPS’d over 1.000 in the Dominican Summer League, I don’t remember hearing about but they are sure being talked about in some sites.
The point is, the Dodgers are the king of the hill in MLB, they can pretty much do what choose, and they are choosing the players they believe will make it happen right away. And as I’m typing this I read they just extended Glasnow, which will probably trigger the nay sayers to post, but not me. Another ahead of the curve move by Friedman.
I am enjoying being a Dodger fan. I think you should be too.
I love being a Dodger fan!
I just read that Glasnow’s extension is for 6 years at $155M guaranteed.
I have no words to comprehend the figures for this signing. First to make this trade and then compound the situation with an extension like this. Wow!
Being a long time Santa Clarita resident and remembering Tyler from his days at Hart High School I guess it’s cool he’s pitching for the Dodgers.
I hope this works out better than the last Hart High graduate AF signed ( T Bauer),
Ted, did you go to Hart? I went to Saugus haha. Hart forever has been fantastic at sports, especially baseball.
I did not. I grew up in Westchester and went to high school there. I moved to Santa Clarita in 1974. I’ve followed Hart since I have lived here. Lots of great baseball players there. Several years ago the two teams in the World Series had about 10% of their rosters from Hart. Unbelievable.
Saugus v Hart football was huge back in the day.
Dodgers extend Glasnow.
The extension will guarantee Glasnow four years and $110MM in new money, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, bringing his total contract to five years and $135MM from 2024-28. The contract does not contain any deferred money. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that the contract also contains a 2029 club option at $30MM. If it’s declined, Glasnow can pick up a $20MM player option.
Now we can only hope he stays healthy.
The option year is actually 2028, not 2029, tweets Feinsand. That means Glasnow will be guaranteed $90MM from 2025-27, with the possibility of earning $120MM over the new portion of the contract (if the Dodgers pick up their club option) or $110MM through 2028. Between the $110MM in new money the $25MM Glasnow was already set to earn, it’s a $135MM contract that comes with a $27MM luxury hit.
I wonder if the Dodgers are working on new and improved get ‘em healthy keep ‘em healthy algorithms?
or maybe they handle it this way:
“Guggenheim Life and Annuity Company operates as an insurance holding company. The Company provides consumer-centric financial services, as well as offers life and annuity, property and casualty, and health insurance solutions.”
I have already made my point on the trade. I am not about to try and convince anyone who does not like the trade. Everyone has an opinion.
Every year Harold and I would pick a player in the draft to follow through their LAD days. In 2019, mine was Ryan Pepiot and Harold’s was Jonny Deluca. They both go together in a trade to Tampa Bay. So if anyone believes I do not like Pepiot, they are just wrong. IMO, Glasnow at his best is a better pitcher than Pepiot at his best. Both Glasnow and Pepiot had the same injury last year. Glasnow returned quicker than did Pepiot.
Glasnow is a strikeout pitcher. My son spoke with a former MLB player who hit against Glasnow a handful of times. He said that Glasnow is 6’8” with a HUGE extension. The ball is on you before you have time to react. That player’s father was an MLB scout and said that Glasnow’s extension very much reminds him of JR Richard. Not the same level of pitcher, but the extension is very similar. A peek at his Statcast page has his extension in the 99th percentile. With a fastball velo at 88th percentile, it is certainly expected to see his K rate in the 97th percentile, and whiff rate in the 95th percentile.
There are people on here, and all over the Dodger blogs, that just do not like anything about Andrew Freidman. If anyone believes that AF has not looked at the medicals and had Dr. ElAttrache (or someone on their medical staff) look at his medicals especially, with his elbow, just believes AF is incompetent and nothing will ever change that. AF is convinced that Glasnow can pitch at an elite level for at least 5 years. I am siding with AF on this one.
Glasnow’s high school coach was the same as my son Andy’s. I have reached out to Jim Ozella to see if he would be willing to share some comments.
Agree wholeheartedly with Jeff.
It seems like some would only be happy if the Dodgers traded for guaranteed elite players and only had to part with players with the smallest chance of being elite.
Enjoy the good.
If May makes it back by 2025 the Dodgers will have two 6′ 8″ righties that won’t be fun to hit against.
The Dodgers have money and the Rays don’t. Salary wise, Pepiot and Glasnow are with the teams where they fit best now that Glasnow has been extended.
Right field was well defended last year with Betts and Heyward and it will be again with Margot and Heyward. Margot hopefully replaces the righty bat Martinez provided against lefties.
Left field will probably be another platoon with Taylor and someone not currently a Dodger. By mid season Pages might replace Taylor.
I would like to wind up with better defense at third especially not knowing how good Lux will be defensively at short. If Muncy can’t be traded until well into the season we will get to see his defense at third and his Mendozaism offensiveness.
2025 = Glasnow, May, Gonsolin, Buehler, Miller, and whatever 2024 winds up with.
you forgot Ohtani 🙂
He’s so forgettable isn’t he.
Seattle’s Miller or Miami’s Lazardo are possibilities.
Some other information I learned from surfing the Dodger blogs. Per Future Dodgers, here is where Glasnow ranks among all starters (140 different guys) with 250+ innings since 2020:
· 3rd in K/9 (12.7)
· 7th in FIP (3.03)
· 3rd in xFIP (2.73)
· 4th in BAA (1.95)
· 3rd SwStr% (16.1%)
· 2nd in CSW% (33%)
· 1st in O-Contact% (34%)
· 2nd in Stuff+ (134)
Here’s how Margot’s done the last three seasons against lefties.
2021: .273/.346/.406/.753 (111 wRC+)
2022: .346/.414/.462/.875 (159 wRC+!!!!)
2023: .277/.293/.372/.665 (84 wRC+)
Another blogger I follow every day is Blake Harris. His summation comments mirror mine:
I assume that if we don’t get Yamamoto, AF will secure another good to very good pitcher such as Burnes, Cease, Montgomery, Luzardo, etc.
What I’m totally uncertain about is the state of the outfield. I know the front office has a plan, but I have no idea what that might be.
Does Margot platoon with JHey, does he spend some time in center against lefties, does he get flipped?
Where does all of this leave Busch and Vargas? Do they platoon in left? Is one of them traded? Are they both traded? Just don’t send them back to OKC. Play them or trade them. I guess that won’t be decided until the pitching is decided because one or both might need to be included in a trade for a pitcher.
I read where we’re in on Hader. I don’t believe that. But Emanuel Clase is available and he’s controllable for up to 5 years at very reasonable salaries. Three years locked in and 2 option years. The Guardians are always looking for hitting. If we sign Yamamoto, maybe we need to decide which guy (Vargas or Busch) we want to keep and include the other in a trade for Clase.
Or trade a boatload of our prospects for Clase and Steven Kwan (the perfect solution for left field).
With this current team, we’ll need 7 starters to begin the year and likely more. Buehler won’t be ready, Kersh won’t be around till July, and Glasnow will be given every chance to NOT get injured.
I think sending Pepoit out means Sheehan is the de facto #2 kid behind Bobby Miller. So come spring training, we’ll luckily get to see a lot of Sheehan, Stone, Knack, Frasso, etc.
I also think if Yamamoto doesn’t come, we won’t trade more young guys for a top arm and instead go for the depth guys, like Imanaga, or Giolito type.
I doubt very much Friedman trades for a closer.
I expect very much Friedman trades Busch.
Who would you expect him to be traded for?
I’m allowing you 3 or 4 options.
Ready, begin.
I see you didn’t mention Vargas. Seems like the only spot available to play either Vargas or Busch would be left field. We already have the right handed hitting CT3 who can play left, so wouldn’t it make more sense to trade Vargas and keep the lefty hitting Busch to play left?
If Max Muncy gets injured, who’s our 3b? CT3? Rojas?
Or do Busch/Vargas get a shot there?
Can’t keep Vargas and Busch on the roster just in case Max gets injured. They need to play regularly to be effective.
Either Rojas or CT can play third adequately (and better than Max) so assuming we aren’t talking lots of time, I would guess that it would be one of those two.
And as far as roster construction goes, we’re talking 13 position players. Only 4 bench spots available. Rojas (our best defensive infielder) and Barnes probably aren’t going anywhere, JHey or Margot (whomever isn’t starting that day), Vargas or Busch. The roster doesn’t seem able to accommodate both of them.
So much fun!
Busch and Ryan for Trevor Rogers?!??!?!?
Busch straight up for Emmauel Rodriguez?
To Seattle straight up for Castillo? He’s pricey, and has term, but Seattle may have RSN issues.
With Doncon for Brian Reynolds?
I agree there’s almost no way both Vargas & Busch make the team. And if this is so, might as well trade one.
I do not think Glasnow makes it through the season with out a trip to the IL> That is my biggest beef with this trade.
Every one of our pitchers will make a trip to the IL during the season. Maybe Glasnow’s visit will be longer but they’ll all make a visit.
I agree Jefe. Time off for R&R.
I still see what amounts to a 6 man rotation and I still maybe see a Japanese pitcher in it this year. Or, who among our many prospects will start here or be used in trade for a spot. I got Sheehan and Giolito in the mix and isn’t Yarbrough still a Dodger? Until Kershaw and Buehler are back we have 5 mid 20’s starters at AAA, unless of course we soon don’t.
Hader? Ok I guess, but our pen already looks pretty good to me. Add one or more of Stone, Grove, Frasso and Hurt and it looks stacked, maybe even for a bullpen or starter game now and then. There is a buzz around the Dodgers this winter. Fun isn’t it.
Not the point. The point is how in the world do you justify paying a guy who has NEVER pitched more than 120 innings in any season the amount of money he is going to get? At least some of the pitchers who get these kinds of deals are healthy and stay away from major injuries. With so many injuries, I call into question the physical therapists and trainers. Something is wrong with the system. I don’t care if he has unmatched potential. At this point he looks to me like a more expensive version of Brandon McCarthy. And we all know how bad that was. I would use that money to hammer out a deal with Yamamoto or Imanaga. He is injury prone. That is enough for me to say oh hell no.
If he doesn’t, that will be the news.
For 2023, the Dodgers lost the most days of players on the injured list this season at 2,465, while the Giants had the most placements at 46.
The number of days lost on the injured list rose 6.1% to 44,461 from 41,916, in the season that ended Sunday, but placements dropped 0.7% to 848 from 854.
The Dodgers had 33 placements, sixth behind the Giants, the Angels (42), Minnesota (39), and Cincinnati and the NYY (38 each). Dodgers pitcher Walker Buehler was sidelined the entire season while recovering from Tommy John surgery and was among 12 Dodgers to finish on the 60-day IL, 10 of them pitchers.
Last year the season ended with 105 pitchers on the IL.
Last year from the first day of Spring Training Report to day 75 of the regular season, there were 268 pitchers that were placed on the IL, including Ryan Pepiot who did not return until August 2.
In my view, the Glasnow deal is a great trade for Tampa and a risky trade/extension for the Dodgers. It seems that the starting pitching market is getting quite expensive. I would have preferred many alternatives to the Glasnow deal including:
1) signing Sonny Gray for 3 yrs/$75 million and keeping Pepiot and Deluca without having to carry Margot.
2) Agreeing to Eduardo Rodriguez request for a $20 million option year at trade deadline and having him for 4yrs/$69 million.
3) Signing Lugo for 3yr/ $45 million and Wacha for 2yr/$32 million, retaining Pepiot/Deluca and extending Walker Buehler for 3 years.
4) Sign Imagana for 5yr/ $85 million and keep Pepiot and DeLuca.
Hopefully, the Glasnow trade succeeds as he has the talent to be a top starter in the MLB. But he is 30 yrs old and has not pitched more than 120 innings and 21 starts in a season in his MLB career. I think the extension is an overpay and a huge bet on unproven talent. The Dodgers are only paying Buehler $8 million and he has been a stellar performer for the team and much more accomplished than Glasnow. Where is the extension for Walker who excelled in the postseason and pitched on 3 days rest in the playoffs for this team until he hurt his arm again?
The Dodgers should take care of their own dedicated players first before shelling out huge amounts for outside players, especially those who are unproven.
Some interesting statements there, RC, none of which I can really argue with.
The Dodgers must think that Glasnow is worth it and that injuries won’t make the deal a bad one. I guess we’ll have to wait awhile to see if they were right.
They seem to feel Glasnow (or at least his potential) puts him above all the pitchers you mentioned and that they will be able to help him pitch in the innings required over the length of the contract to make the deal work for them.
Seriously? Extend Buehler now? Why would either the team or the player agree to an extension now?
I definitely prefer Glasnow to Gray, Rodriguez, Lugo/Wacha.
I have a hard time evaluating Imagana.
The Rays gave Glasnow a two year deal for 23 and 24 when he was coming off of TJ and it covered his first year of free agency. The 2 yr $15 million contract gave Glasnow some insurance of his recovery in exchange for another year of control. It worked out quite well for both the Rays and Glasnow.
Glasnow has more upside than the other pitchers, but all of the other pitchers have had more than 21 starts and 120 innings in seasons, and Dodgers would get the free agent plus Pepiot, Deluca and $50 million more to spend.
I think Roberts’ and Friedman’s decision to start STB’s home run pitcher in game 3 in last year’s playoffs instead of Pepiot continues to have repercussions. Had Pepiot pitched that game 3 and done well as in won the game who knows if Pepiot would have been traded or of his value as a trade piece.
For several years I have thought May was an injury risk whether it be his arm or being hit by a comebacker. He is a big target.
I’m not going to worry about what happens with Glasnow and instead hope Pepiot and DeLuca can take advantage of their opportunities with the Rays. Well, that and hope the Rays move to Portland.
From Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic:
“It turns out that Ohtani had already been pitching the Dodgers’ next move, as sources told The Athletic that the two-way superstar sent Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow a video trying to woo him to Los Angeles.
In the video, Shohei Ohtani expressed that he wished he could share a rotation with Glasnow this season. Ohtani won’t pitch for the Dodgers in 2024 as he recovers from elbow surgery). “But,” the superstar said, “I want to hit some home runs for you.”
Who else might he be talking to?
Manuel Margot?
I am having a few health issues and am not in a position to write a new post. I will try to get to one tomorrow.
Get well my friend. I am working on a couple, but research is hard on this computer.
I’ve been thinking about why the Dodgers decided to extend Glasnow. Beside the obvious, K/9 over 12, GB% over 50%, 3.2 WAR in only 120 innings, freaky good numbers, but…. do they really need to be that good? He had TJ surgery two years ago and appears to be fully recovered, which is why I assume some projections sites have him throwing 160 innings next year. If he threw 160 innings with those stats pitching for the Dodgers he could win 20. I’m thinking maybe the Dodgers will get him to back off a bit, pitch on the edges, bring that K/9 down to say 9 and save that surgically repaired arm for 3 years of October baseball. They could ask the same of all their pitchers and a rotation of Glasnow, Ohtani, Buehler, Miller and May in ‘25? With that lineup? Yoiks and away!
Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers Press Conference Got More Views Than the Entire 2023 World Series
Every TV Station in Japan Broadcast Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers Press Conference
The guy is a cash cow.
As expected Fred. And think of the interest that would be generated by two Asians leading the Los Angeles Dodgers into the postseason for the next 5 years or so.
Go ahead and sign Yamamoto.