The Winter Meetings kick off on Sunday, and many believe there could be a lot of activity before the meetings close on Wednesday. Most everyone is waiting for Juan Soto to make his decision, and Jeff Passan has reported that he will decide no later than Monday.
Because Soto is about to be signed by NYM for 15/YR $700MM deal, NYY, Boston, and Toronto have escalated their interest (offers?) for Teoscar Hernández. I have read reports that have indicated that LAD and Teo are in the final stages of negotiations. I have also read predictions that both Boston and NYY are considered favorites to grab Teo. The sources are not reputable and are more predictions than actual knowledge, so I am not buying into the reports. But they are out there, and LAD has not re-signed him, so some team can in fact make Teo an offer to good to turn down. Think Zack Greinke who was wrapped up in a bow with the contract he wanted the night before Arizona swooped in with the overpay; a 6 year $206.5MM contract.
I am still optimistic that AF/BG and Teo will come to terms. It might take a multi-year deal north of $80MM, with a lot deferred. But if they do not, what are the options?
- Anthony Santander – 30 (2 years younger than Teo). Switch hitter. Negative defensive metrics. Numbers for the last three years are very comparable with Teo’s over the same time frame. Comes with a QO.
- Tyler O’Neill – RH bat who turns 30 in June. LHP killer. Former 2X GG with St. Louis. Can’t stay on the field. Only two years > 100 games. Just under .800 OPS for his career. Do not know how he would feel about platooning, or if LAD would consider it. O’Neill and Baltimore have agreed to a 3 year $49.5MM deal.
- Michael Conforto – LH bat who turns 32 in March. Did not play well in SFG, then again, how many do. Still has a career OPS > .800 (3,938 PA). League average K%. Above league average BB%. Another one who has problems staying on the field.
- Jurickson Profar – No way, no how. Include Alex Verdugo here.
- Harrison Bader – RH bat, who turns 31 in June. He is a true CF, but I would rather give James Outman another chance.
- Max Kepler – LH bat who turns 32 in February. Career OPS < .750. Why there would be any interest by the Dodgers, I am not sure.
- Randal Grichuk – 33 year old RH bat. Been very healthy in his career. Longest stint on the IL 31 days in 2018 with a knee injury. Last year missed the first 7 games due to an ankle injury. Lost 30 days in 2023 with a hernia. That is it since 2018. Another LHP killer. Has cut down on his K%. I think he would be a great platoon OF and RH bat off the bench.
- Jesse Winker – 31 year old LH bat. Limited power, but decent bat to ball skills. Has a career OPS of .804. Winker is one of those platoon players who comes to life in October. But does Winker want to be a platoon player? Winker and Grichuk would be a good platoon tandem for LF, if that would be acceptable to the players.
None of the above, save Jesse Winker, have good playoff numbers, and many do not have many playoff ABs at all.
One FA that I have to add, because there is still a lot of discussion that he could come back to LAD, is LH hitter and outstanding October bat: Joc Pederson. There is no basis in the rumor that Bums is feeding that info to the baseball pundits.
OF trades the Dodgers have been tied to include CF Luis Robert, Jr.
Two others that are rumored to be on the market are CF/1B Cody Bellinger and RF Seiya Suzuki.
Two that have not been linked to LAD, but two I would hope they would push hard for are CF Jarren Duran and RF Kyle Tucker.
Another rumored to be available is LAA LF Taylor Ward, but very unlikely that LAA will trade with LAD.
CF/LF Lane Thomas is being shopped by Cleveland.
SS:
The Dodgers are still shopping for that SS. Willy Adames is now with the SF Giants after he agreed to a 7 year $182MM contract ($26MM annual AAV). He is going to need to average a 3.25 fWAR for 7 years to justify that deal financially. For his first 7 years in MLB, he averaged 3.04 fWAR.
I have zero idea which SS might be available. The only one I am confident is available is Carlos Correa. Again, not knowing if Cincinnati is even considering moving Matt McLain, but like Jarren Duran and Kyle Tucker (see above OF), I would hope that AF/BG tries to hammer Cincinnati to bring him to LAD.
Would the Dodgers consider Trevor Story with massive cash? That is the only way Trevor Story gets moved.
It could be that LAD is comfortable going into the season with Miggy Ro, Tommy Edman, and Chris Taylor as their SS depth chart. Perhaps they are also comfortable waiting for Alex Freeland to breakout.
Starting Pitching:
The Dodgers have signed LHP Blake Snell, which was a fantastic deal IMO. They are still rumored to be one teams that is strongly interested in LHSP Garrett Crochet. With Snell, the LAD rotation to start the year could resemble:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Blake Snell
- Tyler Glasnow
- Bobby Miller
- Tony Gonsolin
- Landon Knack
Shohei Ohtani will not start the year in the rotation, but he will get there before too long. Clayton Kershaw should be back by June (trade deadline at the latest). Emmett Sheehan should be back by the trade deadline.
Crochet would give the Dodgers undoubtedly the best rotation in MLB.
Rōki Sasaki is due to be posted during the Winter Meetings, but does not figure to sign until after January 15.
All of that pre-supposes that Dustin May goes into the bullpen, and Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius go to AAA to start the year.
I am confident that AF/BG are still looking for SP. Whether that is front end starters or back of the rotation, we will have to wait to see. One pitcher I would like to see AF check into is TB Rays 29 year old RHP, Zack Littell. Littell is entering his 3rd and final year of arbitration and is estimated to get $6MM. Another TB Ray pitcher that is rumored to be available is LHSP, Jeffrey Springs. Springs has 2 years at $10.5MM annually, and potentially a third year club option ($15MM with a $750K buyout).
Could they get LHSP Jose Quintana for one year? None of Gavin Stone, River Ryan, or Emmett Sheehan would be blocked in 2026.
Relief Pitching:
I do believe the Dodgers want to re-sign Blake Treinen. But other than Treinen, I do not see the Dodgers signing any other free agent high leverage reliever. More Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier, Anthony Banda types, sure. Tanner Scott? I would not count on that. Michael Soroka? I can see that. Horrible starter, decent reliever.
Which players are potential trade chips? Gavin Lux, Dalton Rushing, Bobby Miller, and other RHP. Unless the Dodgers get the long term SS, Alex Freeland should stick, and both top OF prospects, Josue DePaula and Zyhir Hope, should also stick. But depending on the return, you can never know.
Willie Adames and Tyler O’Neill are the most recent FA signings, but I expect to see a considerable number more deals consummated during the Winter Meetings. Teoscar Hernández figures to be one that can go quickly. Perhaps Walker Buehler. Corbin Burnes? Jack Flaherty? Max Fried? That bidding figures to go a while longer. Alex Bregman has a lot of suitors, and until Houston decides how much they want to pony up, his suitors should grow.
Will the heavy emphasis be on FA at the Winter Meetings, or will it move to trades after the expected Juan Soto agreement? Will the Dodgers make another big splash?
Right now, Outman and Pages will have to be much improved!
I do think the Dodgers make a big splash, perhaps a signing no one expects ( thinking Burnes or Fried) or a big blockbuster trade for an established OF.
Teoscar is a must re-sign. Going to be an interesting if not entertaining week.
Go Dodgers!
I don’t see other teams trading their cost controlled stars to the Dodgers or anyone else.
I got talked out of Correa because of his plantar fasciitis. So at the moment it looks like Rojas and Edman. Centerfield? Outman and Edman. I’m still hopeful Jr is in play.
What is it the Dodgers need to repeat? At the moment Teo and Treinen are at the top of my list. Landing Sasaki in January would be nice. If the Mets sign Soto, and add the pitching being talked about they will likely be the biggest challenge. Hopefully Soto stays with Yankees.
Joc in right field? He’d better lose 20 pounds between now and April.
What’s San Diego up to?
Jon Heyman has reported that both NY teams have pushed their offers to between $710MM and $730MM for Juan Soto, with NYM believed to be the higher of the two bids. He goes on to add that none of LAD, Toronto, or Boston have been eliminated for consideration. And why would they?Tell NYM and NYY that all three teams are still involved to keep the contract needle moving north.
That starting rotation you list would be impressive if all those guys started 25 and went 135+ innings. But, maybe 2 in that group will. Yamamoto and Snell. I don’t believe Ohtani or Kershaw will pitch 135+ either though some projections say Ohtani will. I’d like to see another arm added, though I don’t know who that might be.
I do believe they could get Matt McClain from Cincinnati for like Lux Outman and some minor league pitchers that way they get a shortstop andthen Edman can being the centerfielder. But who is rightfiled and wo is leftfield if Teoscar doesn’t sign. Do they go after Kepler who can play left or rightfield and platoon Taylor and Pages in the other outfield positon which there inconsistent hitting uggh or do they have rushing and Pages. And taylor and Rojas are the late inning defensive guys.
With Adames off the market Dodgers should:
-resign Teo
-trade for Robert jun. (Outman, Lux, Knack or Wrobleski, Cartaya or Fiduccia)
-sign Tanner Scott
-bring back Treinen
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Excellent report.
But no love for Profar and Verdugo? Harsh.
I expect Teo to return on a nice contract. But if things don’t work out, I’d much rather see a trade for Robert than a contract for Santander. This is especially true with Adames no longer an option at SS.
Edman strikes me as the team’s best SS option now, with Rojas as backup. Putting Robert at CF would make the defense strong up the middle.
To me, Teo is Plan A, Robert is Plan B, Santander is Plan C… and Tyler O’Neil is now off the board.
I would not want to trade Rushing or Miller unless the return is a potential star like Robert or Crochet. And maybe Matt McClain, if the Dodger brass are truly covetous.
One of today’s reports says the Dodgers are still talking with Buehler–and that the Yankees, Mets and Braves are also interested. And haven’t the Padres been mentioned?
If so, that means five of the top contenders want Buehler.
Great for him, not so great for the Dodgers. I certainly wish him all the best…
Flaherty, too. If he loves SoCal so much, maybe the Angels have a shot.
AF must have some inkling of whether Sasaki wants to play or the Dodgers or not. Shohei and Yamamoto probably have an idea. Darvish too.
People talk. Just hard to imagine AF would be in the dark–but maybe Sasaki wants to do a tour, get wined and dined, just to be sure. Even if the Dodgers don’t sign Sasaki or Buehler, the pitching looks pretty damn strong.
But please bring back Treinen.
And at least kick the tires on Devin Williams. Lux + Wrobleski + Ryan Ward?
I assume Lux’s departure will create room for Kike.
Nice report Jeff, you covered all the bases. I hope you are feeling better.
I was thinking about the rumored offers for Soto. Teams must think we escalated the bar by signing Ohtani san for so much and now they think other good players are worth near the same amount. But they might be seeing it all wrong because other good players don’t have the same potential to earn money for the team.
It is a fun time of year with all the possibilities still available for creating the 2025 active roster especially for a team seemingly willing to spend money. Is there a player that has not been linked in any way to the Dodgers that will come out of nowhere to become a new Dodger?
Sign Teo, Sasaki and Treinen. Play Pages in rightfield vs LHP and hunt for a platoon partner with him against RHP. Outman needs a look in the Spring but he needs to get his ass going.
I’m personally happy that the addition of Adames is finally settled and we can finally put an end to the 2+ year speculation that he needs to be a Dodger.
And please, let’s end any speculation of recycling Joc and Cody. That ship sailed long ago.
Maybe something will materialize for Lux, hopefully. I’d love to see him and CT3 elsewhere but AF just seems stubborn about CT3. But maybe someone falls in our lap.
Edmon and Miggy can hold the fort while Freeland gets ready, at minimal cost.
To me Betts moving to 2B is screwing everything up, especially if they don’t resign Teo. As it stands the OF without those two is not championship worthy. AF has to have something up his sleeve, because Pages, Edman, Outman, and Rushing won’t get it done; not by a long shot.
Would be nice to get something done with Teo one way or another. I don’t think it is the dollars holding things up as much as the length of the contract. And of course waiting for the Soto shoe to fall. I would go 2 years/$52M with a team option 3rd year at $26M and a $2M buyout. I am not very optimistic about resigning him as I think some team will overpay in both dollars and years. I guess we will see how much he wants to be a Dodger.
I would still like the Dodgers to make a deal for Suzuki from the Cubs and possibly unload Taylor and resign Kike.
Championships are hard. If the Dodgers didn’t make another move they would still be considered as the favorites to win the World Series. Of course that means nothing. This time of the year is fun but when you need to make the move to win it all the Trading deadline is much more meaningful. Think Edmund, Flaherty. I hope they sign Teo but I won’t jump off the bridge if they don’t sign him. I think Roberts Jr. and Crochet would be a good get but some of the trade packages posted here are a way way overpay. Crochet hasn’t done anything to put him as a top end starter and Roberts can’t stay on the field. If we could get them at a reasonable cost that would be dandy.
Nightengale (cough cough) says Max Fried is down to BOS or NYY. He also says (cough cough) there’s a “gap” in Dodgers/Teoscar negotiations.
Per the Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham:
Via a few sources: Teoscar Hernández has told people he would prefer to stay with the Dodgers but has long been intrigued by the idea of playing at Fenway Park and he’s a fan of Alex Cora. It could come down to the Sox and Dodgers.
And per Feinsand:
The Red Sox intend to pursue Teoscar Hernandez if they don’t sign Juan Soto, per source. Boston is believed to prefer Hernandez over Anthony Santander. The Blue Jays are also in the mix for Hernandez, though it appears they prefer the switch-hitting Santander.
Per Spotrac:
The #Mets are reportedly approaching $50M per year with Juan Soto (15 yrs, $750M).
Interesting to note that after quite a bit of research it appears that the Dodgers are linked only to the 50th ranked international player (before you ask, last year’s 50th ranked player signed for $800K)
Good Dennis Kim article on San Diego, the winter meetings and their potential budget flexibility:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5975789/2024/12/07/padres-winter-meetings-payroll-constraints/?source=tw_c_sd
Dick Allen and Dave Parker were both elected to HOF by Classic Era Committee. Both should be welcomed additions to HOF. This is especially true for Dick Allen. Allen had a career 58.7 WAR and 156 OPS+. Comparatively, Willie Stargell had a career 57.6 WAR and a 147 OPS+, and he was elected to HOF by BBWAA in his 1st year of eligibility. Dick Allen was not liked at all by the BBWAA. His highest percentage of BBWAA votes was 18.9%. Why?
Dodgers and Michael Conforto agree to a one year deal, $17MM deal. I have no idea what this means for Teoscar.
Dodgers in agreement on a 1 year deal with Michael Conforto
Dodgers and Conforto agree to a one-year $17 million deal. I completely trust AF/BG. My guess is Outman is being traded. Hope it doesn’t mean were out on Teo and I must confess Conforto is an underwhelming acquisition in my opinion.
This snippet of encouraging news from Kiley McDaniel of ESPN:
Conforto not only had huge home/road splits last season…
133 wRC+ away vs 83 wRC+ home
…he also had one of the biggest gaps in free agency from wOBA to expected wOBA i.e. ball in play luck
.327 wOBA vs .352 xwOBA
Nice gamble by the Dodgers for less than the qualifying offer
Signing Conforto tells me that the Dodgers know they are not getting Soto.
Per Feinsand:
Juan Soto and the Mets have agreed to a 15-year, $765 million deal, per sources.
Some reports that Blake Treinen has been resigned for 2 years, $22mil
Not sure what to make of this:
https://x.com/AriA1exander/status/1865963213650612565
I like Soto. Seems like a good enough guy, but the Yankees must be really pissed.
They offered 16/760 to the Mets 15/765.
With money almost literally coming out of his ears, Soto had to get the last dollar, in other words, his year with Judge and the Yankees pretty much meant nothing to him.
If Teo winds up turning down 3/75 from Andrew to take 4/100 from someone else, I would find that perfectly understandable, but for Soto to go to the Mets because they offered an extra 5 mil on a 765 mil contract………..hey he’s allowed to sign wherever he wants to, but I just don’t understand that kind of thinking. Or maybe that wonderful experience he was supposedly having in the Bronx last year was all one big lie.
I’ve been watching football all day (and still am) so I missed all the action
Good grief summed it up for me.
I hope Teo was serious about wanting to come back. Guess we’ll find out soon.
Conforto huh? I’m not impressed. Maybe they feel he’ll fit in this lineup. I’m still waiting for another splash.
Treinen back in the fold. Now unload Taylor for Suzuki or sign Teo. Bring Buehler back. Keep the band together.
Question: who is going to be the next man up to get a ridiculous contract like Soto’s?
Per ESPN, Roki Sasaki officially posted this morning:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42873728/hard-throwing-pitcher-roki-sasaki-officially-posted-mlb-teams