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Apparently LAD Does Not Need SP???

So you tell me the Dodgers are fixed at Starting Pitching.  I would respectfully disagree.  The Dodgers have exactly three healthy starters: Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, and James Paxton.  Bobby Miller?  Nope, not yet?  So the Dodgers need Landon Knack to start just to have 5 SP, when they probably need 6.

Bobby Miller?  This is the second year he has come down with shoulder concerns.  He has had 1 good game all year.  His four rehab assignments were not very good at all (okay, bad), and his start in Colorado was not very good.  I give him some leeway because the start was in Colorado.  But what about those four rehab starts:

  • Low A – 3.0 IP, 4 hits, 3 runs (all earned), 2 BB, 4 K
  • Low A – 3.1 IP, 5 hits, 4 runs (all earned), 1 BB, 0 K
  • AAA – 4.0 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), 2 BB, 2 K
  • AAA – 4.2 IP, 6 hits, 5 runs (all earned), 3 BB, 4 K

 

  • Total – 15.0 IP, 19 hits, 14 runs (13 earned), 8 BB, 10 K

That is a tidy 7.8 ERA and 1.8 WHIP, and yet that was good enough to say he was healthy enough to be in the starting rotation for LAD?  He had 3 BB and 2 K in his Colorado start.  I acknowledge that this is June, and he has time to improve.  Walker Buehler had 8 starts before everyone finally recognized that there was still something not right.  The Dodgers have 30 games before July 30.  That is roughly 6 more starts.  What if he is pitching the same after those starts.

Clayton Kershaw?  Here is what he said when asked when he was coming back:

“I don’t know. We’ll see,” Kershaw said. “It’s all dependent on the next one. As long as you keep doing well in the next one. You have to see where the team is as well, see what the need is up there, obviously. There’s a lot of ‘X’ factors. Some of them are in my control but some of them aren’t. We’ll just see how the next one goes and go from there.”

I do not personally know Clayton Kershaw.  But that certainly does not sound like an optimistic personal commentary as to where he is at.  Undoubtedly more honest than optimistic.  Without #22 pitching before the deadline, is everyone convinced he is going to be a quality starting pitcher in October?

Yoshinobu Yamamoto?  When asked how the Betts and Yamamoto injuries impact decisions on the trade deadline:

“I actually don’t think it meaningfully changes anything at this point,” Gomes said, “With the expectation that those guys are gonna be back for the postseason.”

What else is he supposed to say?

Key word is expectation.  It was then reported:

Betts was hit by a pitch on his hand and suffered a fracture, with an expected recovery time of six to eight weeks. Yamamoto has a more nebulous timeline with his strained rotator cuff, though the club is expecting him back at some point this season.

Expecting him back at some point this season seems like Dodgerspeak for:  We are probably going to have to shut him down this year because we need to protect 11 more years.  But we are not going to say anything now because we do not want teams trying to take advantage at the deadline.

Minimum expected down time for a rotator cuff strain is 60 days.  When was the last time the Dodgers have hit minimum downtime for an injury?  Can you answer that Max Muncy?  Walker Buehler? Blake Treinen? Danny Duffy? Tony Gonsolin?  Dustin May?  Brusdar Graterol?  Emmet Sheehan? Carlos Martinez?  Tommy Kahnle?  I could go on, but I think everyone understands.

So why should we expect to see Yamamoto back this year with a rotator cuff problem?  If he is back, how effective will he be?  I do not know, but I sure do not trust LAD reports on his shoulder.

Walker Buehler?  It is possible that we have seen the last of Walker Buehler as a Dodger.  I hope I am wrong.  But he has not given any indication that he is ready for an October role.  What does anyone truly expect after his 1st year back after his 2nd TJ?  It is probably going as well as can be expected. I am worried about October, not August/September.

I emphasize October role, because that is the only role the Dodgers should be concerned with.  If Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski were to join the rotation full time, it would not diminish the Dodgers chances of winning the NL West.  However, we have seen what diminished SP has done for the Dodgers over the past 3 playoffs.

Glasnow has to be on an innings watch with his past injuries.  Paxton has to be on an innings watch with his past injuries.  Gavin Stone is already at 80 IP with a career high of 121 (2022) and 100.2 last year.  How effective will he be in October with 160 IP.

There are less than 6 weeks before the trade deadline.  The Dodgers need to decide before then whether they “need” or do not “need” starting pitching.  But if the Dodgers limp into October with 2 healthy starters without addressing it (again), AF/BG should be fired.  Are they going to want to rely on Miller, Buehler, Kershaw, Yamamoto all being healthy in October?  Hopefully they all will be, and we will not have to worry about LAD starting pitching.

Outside of Garrett Crochet, I have no idea what SP could be available.  I do not even know if Crochet is truly available, and if he is, whether AF has the stones to outbid Preller for him. And honestly I have no idea how he would do in the Dodger rotation. But I sure would like to see what he can do.

Jesus Luzardo?  I am not sure he is healthy enough for this year.  And he has not exactly been dominant this year.

Suddenly Detroit is falling out of the WC race and discussing making Jack Flaherty available.  He is in his FA walk year, and pitching well.  Although Detroit is playing CWS this weekend, so maybe they crawl back into it.  One look at his 11 BB vs 100 K in 77.2 IP, and I am on board.  I have been advocating for Tarik Skubal since 2021.  I have no premonition that he will be traded much less to the Dodgers.

How comfortable is everyone with Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, and James Paxton as the top three in the Playoff rotation.  We saw what the wunderkind rookie pitcher (Bobby Miller) did last year in the Playoffs.  We saw last year what a diminished Clayton Kershaw was in the playoffs.

I was a lonely voice in the wind last winter in my desire for Tyler Glasnow.  The bulk of the comments were:  “he is too injury prone”.  Now he is the #1 starter for LAD, while Ryan Pepiot is struggling in Tampa Bay. Where would the Dodgers be without Glasnow?

If the Dodgers look to add a SP, it needs to be top 3 in the rotation.  No Lance Lynn types.  It has to be someone who you trust to win a playoff game.  So if Crochet, Flaherty, or Skubal are not available…move on and hope AF/BG can find a bat or two.  Do not trade prospects for a Griffin Canning or Zach Plesac.  Zach Eflin?  He is not a top 3 rotation pitcher.  Pass.

It takes pitching and defense to win in October.  The Dodgers did not have either in the last three.  And unless they slug (yeah I said it dodgerpatch) like they did in 2020, they could come up short again unless they at least ensure they have sufficient starting pitching.  Part of that is getting another top 3 rotation pitcher.

I will say again, I am just fine with Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski as #4 and #5 in the rotation for the regular season.  But I sure would not want to see them as starters in the playoffs.

It is irrelevant what I think.  If AF is convinced that 2-3 or all 4 of Miller, Buehler, Kershaw, and Yamamoto can pitch in October, and they do not need another SP, then good for the Dodgers. But he better be right.  I would also hope that Garrett Crochet does not end up in San Diego.

 

Follow up editorial – Yes the pitching, especially Landon Knack, was good (except Yarbrough), and the hitting was not.  Once again, the Dodgers scored two on a HR and were 0-6 WRISP including 2 strikeouts to end the game with both trying to hit HRs, when a single or fly ball was all they needed.  But we were just advised with “facts” that the Dodgers are excellent on hitting WRISP.

For the playoffs, the Dodgers will have Mookie, Muncy, and Smith in the lineup, and they will not be playing the Angels.

I like Gavin Lux, but this is not acceptable for a championship team.  We are well past the 150 PA mark Doc was giving him.  Middle infielder also has to be considered for the deadline.

 

 

 

MiLB GAME SUMMARY REPORTS

 

Albuquerque Isotopes (Colorado) 4 – OKC Baseball Club 3

River Ryan started for OKC and completed 3.0 innings.  In 3.0 IP, Ryan faced one over the minimum allowing just the one hit.  He struck out 4.  Ryan threw 34 pitches (24 for strikes).

 

 

OKC struck in the first inning.  Drew Avans and James Outman both singled.  With one out, Ryan Ward doubled with Avans scoring and Outman moving to 3B.  Outman scored on a ground out from Trey Sweeney.

LHRP Alec Gamboa did not have one of his better outings.  In the 4th,  a pair of singles, a SB, and a 2-run scoring double.  Gamboa allowed a solo HR in the 6th.

In the 8th, Jack Little issued a BB.  A sac bunt moved the runner to second, and he scored on a double, giving Albuquerque a 4-2 lead.

OKC scored an unearned run in the bottom of the 8th when Hunter Feduccia reached on an error and scored on a Chris Owings double.

  • James Outman – 2-5, 1 run
  • Doubles – Ryan Ward (14), Chris Owings (7)

 

Box score

 

 

NW Arkansas Naturals (KC) 5 – Tulsa Drillers 0

The Drillers managed 5 singles and were 0-4 WRISP.

Hyun Il Choi was the starter for Tulsa and allowed 3 runs in the 2nd including a 2-run HR, and 2 more in the 3rd, including a HBP and a pair of doubles.

In his 5.0 IP, Choi allowed 7 hits, 3 BB, and 1 HBP, to go with the 5 runs.

Lucas Wepf made his AA debut tonight in relief of Choi.  He pitched 2.0 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit with 2 Ks.  The other bright spot for Tulsa was 22 year old RHRP Edgardo Henriquez who pitched 1.0 inning in relief with a BB and 2 Ks.  This was Edgardo’s 4th AA appearance and he still has not allowed a run.

 

  • Yeiner Fernandez – 2-3

 

Box Score

 

 

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 5 – Inland Empire 66ers (LAA) 2

Wyatt Crowell made his first start for RC and was excellent.  He completed 3.0 scoreless IP, allowing 1 hit, 1 HBP, and registering 4 Ks.

19 year old RHP Sean Linen followed with 4.0 IP.  He allowed a solo HR for the only hit and run allowed.  Felix Cabrera closed the game with 2.0 innings.  He allowed 1 run on 3 hits.

Every RC batter had at least 1 hit.

  • Jesus Galiz – 3-4, 2 runs, triple (2)
  • Josue De Paula – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 RBI
  • Wilman Diaz – 2-4, 2 runs, 2 RBI
  • Double – Sean McLain (3)

 

Box Score

 

 

ACL Dodgers 9 – ACL Brewers 7

Every starting Dodger had at least one hit.

  • Eduardo Quintero – 3-5, 1 run, 2 RBI, double (4)
  • Mairoshendrick Martinus – 2-4, 1 BB, 3 runs, 1 RBI, HR (4)
  • José Izarra – 2-3, 1 run, 3 RBI, double (1), HR (1)
  • Easton Shelton – 3-4, 1 run
  • Cameron Decker – 1-3, 2 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR (4)
  • Jaron Elkins – 1-3, 2 BB, double (6)

 

Box Score

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jeff Dominique

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Dionysus

Jeff, I don’t quite agree with your argument about our starting pitching. Assuming every pitcher is an injury risk, we currently have:

Glasnow
Stone
Paxton
Miller
Knack

Buehler seems to be getting a spell for an adjustment and Kershaw is on the slow road back.

Sheehan is gone for the year but I expect Yamamoto by the postseason.

Wrobleski, Ryan & even Hurt are options down the line.

Replacing/improving Lux’s spot and possibly Vargas/Keekay/Taylor is a more urgent need.

Jeff

Jeff, you make great points in your analysis of our pitching. Injury is always an unknown, unwanted guest, and could effect any of our staff. Just what we will look like come the playoffs is really not something we can bet on. We have the talent, but will we have the health?

Glasnow has lost more games than any of our incumbent starters. However, I believe this season to be the one where he will emerge with an impressive record and make the doubters, myself included, become believers. I didn’t know he was such an impressive SO hurler and he’s got the body to withstand injuries if he takes care and remains mindful of how his training helps him to do this. It is Yamamoto that I am most concerned about mainly because of how concerned fans like yourself are about his injury. I know rotator cuffs are problematic and need special attention in athletes that are prone to injure them. If Yamamoto comes back this season, which I think he will, we should be ready for the playoffs without any other pitching injuries occurring.

Paxton is a long time pro who should know how to take care of himself and seems to quietly do his job on the mound. With these 3 pitchers alone, we should be good. With Kershaw entering the fray, if he is healthy, he can only help because of his talent and vast experience. His days of domination may be over but I bet he can still win a game or two.

Buehler seems finished for this season as well as Miller. Knack is inexperienced and seems out of condition if you ask me. Looking at his body fat, breathing, and awkward motion style, I’m not a long term believer.

We definitely need another solid starter to go into the playoffs and not one of our walking wounded to step in. Those pitchers will have to go through another ST and compete for a job here. Getting another arm should be our primary concern and we must pay a premium if we have to. No rehab victims need apply.

We should have won the opener against the Angels. We need to beat teams like this now and get beyond our .500 difficulties. Hitters beside Ohtani need to step up. Where’s the power?

dodgerram

Give Vargas an infield glove, give him some infield practice on Sunday on the off day and plug him into the lineup. And for gods sake stop pinch hitting for him and leaving Kike in. That was an embarassing at bat by Kike in the 10th. Completely guessing, totally overmatched from the first pitch.
Oh , I forgot. Wins in June dont count for nothing.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last edited 11 months ago by dodgerram
Dave

* I agree re how little we can trust what the front office says about injuries.
*I am going to predict that Kershaw comes back sooner rather than later, 1 maybe 2 more rehab starts.
*Crotchet is at 88 innings pitched, which is his career high.
* I do not trust relying on homeruns. It is too hit and miss, literally. Give me a handfull of hitters that bat .275 anyday.
* Glasnow, Kershaw, Paxton, Stone is a good playoff rotation but we need to score runs. We have enough other pitchers to help us get there.
* There is still plenty of time to see how Miller, Kershaw and Yamamoto progress.

TennisMenace (TM)

Great article again, Jeff. Every year we go through multiple pitching injuries- much like the Braves- and every year, with the exception of Darvish, we replace the voids with mediocre talent which does us very little good in the playoffs.

I believe we definitely need one top 3 starter for more than one reason. I don’t count on Buehler at all….I still have hope for Miller, but it is fading……and I’m very concerned about Yamamoto’s health. Oh, and this might upset some people, but I also expect Glasnow to go on the IR sometime soon. I’m hoping it won’t be a year ending injury. As for Kershaw….who knows? He did look okay in his Tulsa outing this week, but he is broken down with age….still hopeful.

So yes AF…..if you are serious about winning it all this year, you definitely need to go all in and trade away some prospects to acquire a few missing pieces….like a SP and another OF. Best wishes….TM

Last edited 11 months ago by TennisMenace (TM)
Badger

Well you know I’m in agreement with this view Jeff. Paxton threw 96 innings last year. Glasnow 120. Gavin Stone has pitched 111 innings of Major League ball and 80 of those have been this year. Buehler is broken, Miller is a definite maybe, Yamamoto might be ok in a few weeks and he might not, Kershaw is going 3 innings in A ball, Gonsolin, May, Grove, Hurt and Sheehan are all being paid to rehab. It might work out fine, but it doesn’t feel right to me.

And something else that doesn’t feel right – first day of summer and they start the junior varsity against Anaheim. It felt like the Freeway Series in April. But these games count.

Rojas appears to be playing back to his mean, .563 OPS in the last 2 weeks, Kiké has become a .197 hitter, and it looks like maybe the Dodgers are going to give Lux all year to get it right. 200 at bats, .538 OPS.

When the top of the order goes flat, after Ohtani the next 6 spots in the order were 1 for 24, this team can struggle to score. And this was against one of the worst teams in baseball. I suppose all teams do this occasionally. I guess we just enjoy it when it’s working, roll our eyes and shrug when it doesn’t. Sure is fun having Ohtani on this team.

Bobby

I actually thought Bobby Miller got a bit better as the game in went on. It was his first game back, after an “eh” rehab assignment, and IN Colorado. Let’s see how he is in his next start, most likely at the White Sox.

I am done with Gavin Lux. He looks timid up there, and unsure of what pitches to swing at and what pitches to take (fastballs right down the middle). I was all in on Gavin when we draft him, and when he shot up to be the #2 prospect in baseball. But his at bats this year have ZERO to do with his leg injury; he looks lost. He may need to go join Outman in AAA.

I also hope we give some extended vacations in July to Glasnow and Stone to get them ready for Oct. Granted in Oct, Doc will throw them 4-5 ip anyway, and then start the bullpen train.

tedraymond

What a discouraging defeat by this Dodger team. To have that kind of offensive production (five hits) in a bullpen game against five pitchers not having a ERA below 4.50. Ohtani got two hits and then the “problem” bottom of the order had the other three.

Jeff D’s assessment of the starting pitching, unfortunately, appears to be realistic in it’s weaknesses. A few weeks ago I was touting that the Dodgers had more than enough pitching to be successful in the playoffs. No trades would be necessary. That is not going to be the case. After Buehler’s nice outing in his third or fourth start I thought it was something to build on. It was not. Yamamoto was becoming a dominating pitcher. Now he’s out, but will be ready for the postseason?. He, most likely, will not. Kershaw was expected back after the All Star game. His recent comments might indicate that could not happen. Bobby Miller is a big question mark right now. So, Jeff D, it looks like AF needs to trade for at least one, maybe two, starting pitchers. You are right.

After spending close to $500MM (with posting fee and luxury tax penalty) on Glasnow and Yamamoto that might not be enough. Yamamoto’s conditioning and mechanics were lauded and maybe revolutionary. Yet, after 14 starts with the Dodgers, the 25 year old breaks down with shoulder issues. Fourteen starts into a 12 year contract and he is probably shut down for the season. WTF?

Bobby Miller has a brilliant first start and then a few where he is ineffective. Because he’s injured. Same with Buehler. Same with Graterol, Kelly, Braiser, Treinen, May, Gonsolin, and Hurt. Over the years AF always has a group of broken down pitchers that he hopes to be rehabbed and ready for the postseason. Almost all never pitch for the Dodgers or anyone else.

With the dozens of pitchers he has drafted AF can’t find one that can become an effective BP piece? Or, the many proven relievers in the MLB that he has been dead against trading for. He won’t give up any of the Dodgers treasured prospects. You know, those position prospects that never get a chance to play with the Dodgers. He just keeps recycling everyone’s castoffs.

I don’t know what the Dodgers are doing or not doing to have all these pitchers break down the way they do. They can draft them, develop them, baby them as far as innings pitched, and then watch them get injured after a short time with the team.

What about Gavin Stone you might ask? He is becoming a pitcher. He isn’t a guy trying to throw the ball threw a brick wall. Hopefully, his approach and mechanics will allow him to continue to improve and be effective. I think this is a nice example of the type of pitcher the team should be developing. It’s not 100% guaranteed, I think might increase the odds of staying off the IL or TJ surgery. Not the Miller type. They rarely stay healthy. Look around baseball. Mostly are big velo and spin guys.

I know this isn’t only a Dodger problem, but a baseball problem. Well, the Dodgers are supposed to be better of the rest of baseball. And, in most aspects they are. But, like everyone else, they fail at keeping pitchers healthy and available. And, unless they are very lucky, the slug approach with their offensive in the postseason will lead to another early exit by an inferior team.

Now, Max is on the 60 day IL. What a surprise. Give someone from AAA a chance.

Sorry to be so negative. But, with such expectations this season and seeing the recent play by the team and the pitching disappointments, it’s very discouraging. How much money do they have to spend? How many pitchers do they need to get through a season? Will the highly paid and talented offensive players succeed in the postseason? I do not know.

Carry on.

Last edited 11 months ago by tedraymond
Bluto

I guess.

i see the point, it’s well presented.

To me the problem is just space. Kershaw, Graterol, May, Kelly, Brasier are all on the 60 IL and due to return. There are a couple of DFA/60 candidates: Brogdon, Hernandez, Ramirez….

But ADDING to that congestion?

Feels inefficient.

Especially adding a pitcher with term. So many starting pitching spots are already allocated for multiple years: Stone, Miller, Yamamoto, Glasnow. Then there’s the ready youth: Knack, Hurt, Ryan, Sheehan and THEN the guys below them.

i love Preller’s aggressiveness, but I’m long past worrying about the Padres even with their perennial acquisitions.

sure, they could be like last year’s Arizona and just get lucky in the crapshoot playoffs. But both teams are fundamentally lesser long term.

Last edited 11 months ago by Bluto
Bobby

In the twitter link above about River Ryan, the writer stated “He sat 96.5, touched 98.9 spin averaged well over 2300 and touched over 2500”

Can anyone explain to me how those spin numbers compare to top spin guys? If I recall, Walker Buehler had some crazy spin before he reinjured his arm.

Does anyone else on our staff have those type spin numbers?

Wayne

Excellent presentation Jeff on why things are far from peaches ‘n cream for this year’s team.
So much fluidity with injuries and performances casts a dark shadow over how good the Dodgers can actually be by October.

Last edited 11 months ago by Wayne
Therealten

I happen to agree with everything u said. Our starting pitching is tenuous at best. One more injury and where do we go? How about a guy like Quintana from the Mets? Throughout the AF tenure we have just struggled with enough quality pitching in the playoffs. Last year was a total embarrassment not 1 healthy quality playoff starter.

at the end of the game last night is a preview of our playoff offense if it doesn’t change. Kiké and lux can’t put the bat on the ball when needed. I would throw biggio, Taylor, Barnes, and probably pages n Heyward in that group but not as bad.

injuries are almost comical. He will be back after the 15 days blah blah blah. Never happens in LA. I hope they make some moves but I am not going to hold my breath. I know one thing this team is nothing special as constructed.

Fred Vogel

“But if the Dodgers limp into October with 2 healthy starters without addressing it (again), AF/BG should be fired.”

Doesn’t Ohtani have the right to void his contract if AF leaves?

Singing the Blue

I’m ambivalent about our pitching needs and I think AF will wait until late July before deciding what he wants to do.

I have more confidence in Miller’s returning to form this year than I do Buehler but one, both or neither could be playoff ready. And of course, we don’t know what we’ll get from CK either. Andrew has four or five weeks to see what progress those three make before deciding on a plan of action, or inaction.

Comments on some of the possibilities you mentioned:

Skubal – I don’t see any way that the Tigers move him. He’s one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL and they still control him for 2.5 years. They could be in the playoffs as soon as next year so why trade Skubal?

Crochet – You say you aren’t concerned about the future but are concentrating on 2024, but as others have pointed out, he has never been a starter before and has now reached his 2023 number of innings pitched. Considering what he would cost in prospects, I don’t think it’s worth the risk. With even a moderate amount of innings pitched between now and September, he’s going to be a tired puppy come October.

Flaherty – If we want another starter, this is my choice. A free agent after the season so won’t cost a ridiculous amount of prospects. He seems to have found himself again this year and has always been a favorite of mine. Hopefully he would be of more help in the post season than my brilliant pick of Lynn last year.

And while I’m re-working the team, I’m moving Kike, Biggio and Lux in trades or DFA and bringing in Brendan Donovan from St Louis to play 2B, 3B and LF, as needed. Another favorite of mine and I have no clue if the Cards would trade him, but they need young pitching, so……………………………

Last edited 11 months ago by Singing the Blue
Oldbear48

They definitely need another starting pitcher; some infield help and at least one power bat. Luzardo went on the IL today. I saw a trade proposal for Bichette on Heavy.com. Dodgers get Bichette, Jays get Lux, Cartaya and Payton Martin. Sounds about right. I saw another blurb the other day where they might be interested in Kikuchi. He is having a decent year.

Jeff

What kind of uniforms are the Dodgers wearing? I’ve never seen them before.

Duke Not Snider

Excellent case for going after Crochet.
That stat on Lux is pretty brutal… He had a good day yesterday, but I just don’t see him in the long-term plans for the Dodgers. And the plans shouldn’t include a guy whose sole job is to play LF against lefties.

Last edited 11 months ago by Duke Not Snider

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