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Are the Dodgers Through?

Well it has been an exciting two weeks for Dodger fans. They landed the two most sought after free agents on the markets, and by the way, they are both Japanese. Go figure.

In between they traded Pepiot and Deluca to the Rays for Margot and Glasnow. That deal has been discussed at length on many Dodger sites including this one.

With Ohtani and now Yamamoto becoming Dodgers, are they finished? Well, we all know there will be depth signings for the minors. Someone has to be moved off of the roster to make room for Yamamoto. No less than 4 candidates for that honor. I would think Brian Hudson is the most likely candidate.

But will they add or make a couple of trades to strengthen the 40 man roster? I tend to believe that Freidman is not done. I still think since Ohtani will not pitch this year, and the fact that they will monitor Buehler’s innings closely, means they need at least one more starter.

They might even look at getting another RH outfielder with some pop. There are a couple free agents who fit that bill with Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham at the top of the list.

Several posters on a couple of sites keep mentioning making a trade with the Brewers for Burnes. Several also do not feel comfortable with Gavin Lux as the full time SS. So they advocate getting Adames in the same deal, and making Lux a part of the trade.

I would not do that deal for two rentals. Burnes has already stated that he is looking forward to testing free agency. Adames, although a SS with some power and at this point a better defensive SS than Lux, is not a great hitter and his K rate is high. I believe Lux is a better all around player, and really deserves a chance to either prove he can play the position at the major league level or not.

Others have said the outfield is weak, and that Mookie needs to stay in RF. Dave Roberts has said Mookie will play mostly at second base. He did not completely rule out some time in the outfield. But Mookie feels more into the game when playing second, and it reduces the chances of a serious injury from running into a wall in the outfield.

As usual, some fans keep calling for the Dodgers to unload Austin Barnes and Chris Taylor. Taylor would be hard to move with two years and 30 million left on his deal. Most teams do not want a 15 million dollar utility player.

It could happen if LA ate some of his contract, but at this point, he is the only player on the roster with those kinds of skills. He is proficient as both an infielder and outfielder at multiple spots on the diamond.

As for Barnes, we fans look at his bat and cry foul! But the team and front office value his defensive and game calling skills. No, he is not very prolific at throwing out base stealers. But with the new bases and rules, few catchers are.

Hunter Feduccia is the minor leaguer closest to being ready for the majors. But he has no experience handling a major league staff except for those MLB pitchers sent to AAA for rehab, or to get their game in order.

They have four catchers on the 40 man roster. It is a position of strength. I think and believe that trading one of the young catchers in a deal for a major league starter is not out of the question.

I do not believe they will sign any of the remaining free agents who have a QO attached to them. And the reasoning is simple. They are already losing 2 draft picks and 1 million dollars in international pool money for signing Ohtani. AF loves his picks too much to lose two more if he signs another free agent with a QO.

So, no Hader, or Bellinger. There are also some who think that the Brewers, if inclined to trade Burnes, would want the team getting Burnes to take Yelich also. With as much money as he is owed and his decline in production over the last few years, I would not do that deal under that provision.

I still feel like LA was forced to take Margot in the Glasnow trade. The only good part of that deal is that the Rays are paying 4 million of his salary.

We all would have much rather had Arozarena. But he was not on the table. Defensively, I have little problem with Margot, my problem is that I believe he brings little to the offensive side of the game. His career OPS is below .700. He also has no power.

Now, AF might just take what he has into spring training in 8 weeks. Then again, he might feel the team needs a little more. Only time will tell. I expect if they do anything, it will not be until after the new year.

 

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Jeff Dominique

The Dodgers signed 25 year old infielder Jonathan Araúz to a MiLB contract. This is strictly organizational depth. Look for more of these as the Dodgers are very limited with infielders at the upper levels (AAA and AA) both in quantity and quality.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be introduced on Wednesday at 3:00 PM. A roster spot will need to be open before they officially announce his signing.

Last edited 5 months ago by Jeff Dominique
Bumsrap

That sums it up nicely Bear.

I think Margot will hit lefties well enough to at worst not be a hole in the lineup and I like that he offers more contact type at bats than what Taylor and Muncy offer.

I would rather have Adames play third if he were acquired and keep Lux at short.

I am not sure that Cease would be a better pitcher than Sheehan.

Oldbear48

I feel pretty much the same and I also feel like they should take a flyer on Giolito. I really think he wants to be a Dodger and Prior can help him get back to where he was.

Kickstart

Yes Giolito would be a reclamation project I could actually get behind

Jeff Dominique

Dylan Cease graduated to CWS for good on July 19, 2019, and has not missed a start. He placed #2 in AL CY in 2022. Three straight years of 165.2, 184.0, and 177.0 IP with 226, 227, and 214 Ks. You are going to judge Cease based on 2023 when the entire CWS team tanked? With Yasmani Grandal as his catcher? Grandal is the poster boy for why catchers should be judged at least as much by their defensive skills as their offensive skills.   

You may want Emmet Sheehan more than Dylan Cease, but there is no way Sheehan is a better pitcher. That being said, IMO, you do not have to worry about Cease getting traded to the Dodgers. The Dodgers are not going to pay the price CWS wants for Cease. 

Per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the White Sox asked the Reds for a prospect package headlined by Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty, as well as two highly-ranked position player prospects. Jason Williams of the Cincinnati Enquirer said the White Sox asked for Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips and at least one more prospect. MLB Pipeline ranks all three of those players in the top-68 prospects. The 4th player is probably Petty. Unless Chris Getz can fleece somebody, Cease is probably going to stay with CWS at least until the deadline. 

I honestly do not see the Dodgers including Sheehan in any trade.

I cannot see any sane team taking a top 3 defensive SS and sticking him at 3B. Adames will play SS wherever he plays in 2024. You are going to have to suffer through another year (or two) with Max as the LAD 3B. Like him or not, he is a 100 RBI hitter.

You want to replace Muncy with Adames?

Adames – .217/.310/.407/.717 – 25.9% K rate, 11.1% BB rate, 24 HR, 80 RBI
Muncy – .212/.333/.475/.808 – 26.4% K rate, 14.1% BB rate, 36 HR, 105 RBI

Plus Adames is expected to pull down $12.4MM in arbitration, and Muncy is earning $12.0MM. Pay more for less production?

Bumsrap

I don’t want to lose Lux for a rental with the offensive stats you gave Jeff. However, if he came as part of a trade package that did not include Lux, then yes, I would prefer to have his defense at third over Max’s. Where would Lux play if Adames were at short given I didn’t give up Lux to get Adames? Lux is the Dodgers best hope for a long-term shortstop.

Cease is durable, I agree. He is another righty arm though so I would rather use trade assets to get a lefty given that Sheehan is just fine as a number 5. Cease is young at 27 but has a pedestrian 43-35 career and pedestrian 3.83 ERA and has only two seasons remaining before he’s eligible for free agency.

Sheehan is cheaper and has more years of control than Cease. Cease has a much lower downside but his upside IMHO might not be higher than Sheehan.

Bottom line is that I am not anxious to trade for Cease or Adames.

ayebatter

OB why do you continue to harp on the K percentage of Adames (26%) and suggest that Duvall would be acceptable with a K percentage of 31% ?

Oldbear48

Duvall is an outfielder with gold glove caliber defense, big time power, and he drives in runs. Yes he strikes out a lot, but he also, like Muncy, gets on base. His career OPS is over.800. Adames strikes out way too much for a SS and SS is not a position of need. He played under 100 games last year and still blasted 21 homers. His OPS was .834. Of his 79 hits, 47 went for extra bases. Adames OPS was over 100 points lower, he struck out 55 more times and he only hit 3 more homers than Duvall in 57 more games. And Adames is going to cost you capitol in prospects, whereas Duvall costs only cash. And you can get Duvall cheaper. Adames is arbitration eligible so he will get a hefty raise. You can get Duvall for around 8 million.

Dionysus

I agree we will wait out the market a bit. I still see us adding a low-end SP and possibly a RH OF.

And I wonder what will become of Vargas & Busch.

Kickstart

Agree with ya Bear on Giolito and maybe one other inning eating depth type who keeps us in winnable games. I heard somewhere used 17 starters last year. Of course don’t foresee needing that many but surely more than currently have.

Badger

You read it here Kickstart.

Kickstart. Reminds me of my Kawasaki Enduro. Great bike.

Are the Dodgers through? Of course not.

Duvall is ok. I think they might look for more power there.

Yes, another starter is likely. I look for Giolito to be signed.

Vargas Busch. What is the plan? We may not know for a while. We may know soon. We don’t know at the moment.

It would appear the Dodgers are content with Muncy and his across the board negative defensive numbers at third. He makes up for his less than runs saved with his more than runs created. He’s an inexpensive 3 oWAR player.

Will this be a quiet week? It’s certainly starting out that way.

Last edited 5 months ago by Badger
Bumsrap

Vargas and Bush have yet to garner my interest.

Oldbear48

Duvall can be a 30 HR guy. He has done that three times in his career with a high of 38 just three years ago in 21. He was injured part of last season, or he might have easily hit 30 again. None of the other corner outfield free agents has that kind of power. Hernandez has hit 30 once. He also strikes out WAY too much, but LA is keeping an eye on his market. I would rather have Duvall’s glove out there in left than Hernandez, who basically is a RF. Kiermaier resigns with Toronto. Cody Bellinger is running out of landing spots.

Badger

He certainly doesn’t project 30 home runs Bear. 21 with an OPS of .759. He’s 35 now and had a negative dWAR for two years in a row. He actually hit RH pitching better last year, so I don’t know how he would be used. Hernandez and Soler both project more offense.

Oldbear48

Neither Hernandez or Soler are good defenders and Hernandez strikes out way more than Duvall. Hernandez has hit 30 once. I still think Duvall if healthy, is a better option than Soler or Hernandez. And Soler profiles as mostly a DH. His defense is atrocious.

Jeff Dominique

I have been advocating for Lucas Giolito (and Max Fried and Jack Flaherty) for two years. I was looking forward to after the 2023 season when both Giolito and Flaherty would become FA. I do not think Giolito falls into the reclamation project that Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, and Noah Syndergaard did. He had a bad post trade 2023, but otherwise has been a fairly productive SP in a bad system. It is not like CWS develops pitchers like Cleveland, Houston, and LAD. 

There will be teams who will give Giolito a multi-year deal. He has earned it. I know he wants to pitch for LAD, but will he really sacrifice a multiyear $15MM AAV++ deal to pitch for the Dodgers? Will the Dodgers pay him more than what Seth Lugo got from KC (3 years $45MM)? More than what KC paid to Michael Wacha, 2 years $32MM? He is worth more than Flaherty’s 1 year $14MM deal he signed with Detroit.

He is the innings eater they could use as the #4/#5. Does he want to pitch enough for the Dodgers to give them a hometown discount? 2 years with an option? 3 years with an option? 

Remember the Dodgers have 3 pitchers ready to return to the rotation in 2025:

RHSP – Shohei Ohtani
RHSP – Dustin May
RHSP – Tony Gonsolin

Are they really looking for a pitcher with more than a 1 year deal?

The 1 year reclamation projects I see more are:

LHSP – Sean Manaea
LHSP – James Paxton
LHSP – Hyun-jin Ryu
RHSP – Frankie Montas
RHP – Michael Lorenzen

Dionysus

Good thinking

Bluto

I think there are trades in the future for no other reason than they need to move some players out.
One of Busch or Vargas is likely to go. Maybe a pitcher or two as well.
Even if these trades are for minor league lottery tickets or depth.

tedraymond

The Dodgers through? I would think they are never through.

I believe the the Vargas/Busch situation has to be addressed. I would like to see Vargas stationed in LF for now and considered a Muncy replacement in 3-4 years. I would include Busch (plus a catcher and pitching) in a trade with Miami for Luzardo. I don’t see how AF can justify sending Busch (or Vargas) to AAA again.

When I first saw Vargas hit in 2022 call up he passed the eye test for me. I don’t have the expertise to breakdown a swing like some here. But, I liked his swing, the way the ball came off his bat, and his ability to hit into the gaps. The numbers weren’t there, but it was a small sample size. In 2023 he was handed the 2B job at the start of the season. With two (?) broken fingers. Why would the Dodgers play a player, especially, a rookie that was injured? While trying to play injured it is natural to try to compensate for the injury which throws other body parts out of sort. It also messes with the mental side of the game. Ask Cody Bellinger. So, sure Vargas failed. Healthy, I feel that he will be positive addition to the team no matter what position he plays. Like Lux, Vargas will be a solid major league player. A star? Maybe. Maybe not. Though there’s nothing wrong with solid.

I think it’s crazy to consider including Lux to the Brewers in a trade for Burnes and Adames. Both will be free agents in 2025. To give up a few years of Lux (plus whoever else) for one year of Burnes and Adames doesn’t seem like an AF move. I know Lux may be a liability at SS and they already have that at 3B. Let’s see what they can do before doing something foolish. Heck, maybe Muncy has lost some weight, added some quickness, and has been taking 100’s of groundballs a day. The team is talented enough to overcome a possible weak left side of the infield. If Lux fails then AF has plenty of prospects to correct the defense.

Trade for Luzardo or sign Giolitto (2 yrs/$30M + option). Ohtani will be available in 2025, but May will be big question mark. Personally, I have a feeling that May will be reduced to a reliever. That’s if he is able to return at all. Gonsolin always seems to have arm issues and there’s no guarantee he will successfully recover as a starter from his surgery. He will be 31 in May of 2026 when he is, hopefully, available to pitch again. I see him in the BP as well if he does return. So, I don’t believe there should be a problem adding either Luzardo or Giolitto to the rotation. As we found out last year you can never have too much starting pitching.

As far as Taylor and Barnes being moved I would keep them for now. Taylor is way overpaid, but his defensive qualities and 2-3 ten game insane hot streaks a season are almost worth the 150+ K’s and issues making contact that comes with it. Or something like that. I accept Barnes futilities at the bat and lack of throwing out runners. He did have a strong second half at the plate though. And, the pitchers love to pitch to him. So, there’s that. Again, the strength of this team can overcome whatever weaknesses these two players might have. We can’t have All Stars everywhere…… or can we?

Carry on.

Badger

I think Burnes makes sense for one year because Ohtani will be back. I don’t believe Lux would be included but Busch, Cartaya and a pitcher could be. Milwaukee is gonna lose him so their leverage is lessened, but they are also a contender so I can see them keeping him then giving him a QO.

It seems to me the offense is fine, even with Taylor and Barnes and whatever other bench players they pick up. This team is going to score runs. And even with a middle of the pack staff last year they scored and won 100. This new staff will be considerably better.

Oldbear48

I just can’t see them giving up a ton for a guy who insists he is going to be a free agent. And even though Ohtani is seen to be as ready for 25, how effective will he be after not pitching for over one and a half years? Burnes has ace type stuff it is true. I just think he is going to cost too much in prospect capitol. And I especially do not want him if they are forced into taking Yelich too. They had that happen when they traded for Glasnow. If the Brewers want to pay half of Yelich’s salary, then ok. But let the swing and miss machine that is Adames stay in Milwaukee and give Lux his shot. They can always make a trade at the deadline.

Singing the Blue

I don’t think you can compare having to take Margot at 10 mil for one year with the Rays paying 4 million of that vs. Yellich with 5 years remaining at 26 mil per year.

On the other hand Yellich had a pretty nice year last year with .370 OBP, .818 OPS and 124 OPS+.

How about if we make them throw in Devin Williams.

To show you how ridiculous the Trade Simulator can be sometimes and/or how much negative value they put on Yellich, the following trade is acceptable:

Dodgers get: Burnes, Yellich, Williams
Brewers get: River Ryan and Trey Sweeney (the shortstop we got from the Yankees for Vivas and VGon).

or, if you prefer, all three Brewers players for Alex Vesia.

Dionysus

No more Brewers talk, please. The hot rumor is Bieber & Clase for some combo of Vargas, Busch, Pages, Frasso, Stone, Knack, Ramos & Cartaya.

Singing the Blue

If you saw that rumor attached to a twitter account by the name of MLB Insider, pay no attention.

That guy is no more an “insider” than you and I are. He throws darts at a dart board for his insider info.

You can believe that rumor when you see it attached to someone like Passan or Rosenthal.

Mind you, it’s not an impossible trade, but as far as I’m concerned, we could have tweeted the same thing and been as close to insider information as he is.

Last edited 5 months ago by Singing the Blue
Dionysus

Fair

Clase is a stud tho

Badger

I was talking about guys the Dodgers don’t intend to use for a pitcher that could help win a Championship. Sounds good to me.

I don’t know about Yelich, but I see no reason to feel forced into taking him if they don’t want him. Frankly, I don’t know why Milwaukee would trade either of them. Yelich put 3.6 WAR last year, Burnes 3.5 WAR. With these guys they contend. Without them they don’t.

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