Note – I wrote this prior to Sunday’s game. I added a couple of additional comments based in part on Sunday’s come from behind win.
It is going to be a long season if after every loss it is because of Dave Roberts. Damn that Roberts for sending up Will Smith, Max Muncy, and Teoscar Hernández with the bases loaded and nobody out so that the Dodgers would not score in the 1st. Damn that Roberts for allowing Mookie to pop out and Shohei to strikeout with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out so the Dodgers would not score in the 2nd.
Damn that Dave Roberts for sending Freddie to the plate on muddy base paths on a medium fly ball to a 72nd percentile arm in RF.
Damn that Dave Roberts for allowing James Outman to strikeout with no outs and a runner on 2nd in the 10th. While we are at it, damn that Dave Roberts for sending up Jason Heyward to strike out right behind Outman. If either of those LH hitters pull the ball, Taylor gets to 3rd and scores on Gavin Lux’s infield single. And damn that Dave Roberts to allow Shohei to strike out again with the winning runners in scoring position in the 10th.
I looked at the box score and did not see Roberts as one of the 14 strikeout victims, and do not remember him leaving any of the 13 runners LOB. The box score says that the Dodgers were 7-19 WRISP. I went back and looked at each of the plays, and I only counted 6-19. Regardless, the Dodgers had 19 ABs WRISP, and could only score 4. That is borderline pathetic.
Okay, maybe the critics are not going to blame Doc for all of the hitting miscues, but they are very quick to blame him for the pitching.
Apparently there are a lot of fans who spoke with Yoshi Yamamoto and knew he could go out for another inning or two(??). He already sat out for a 35 minute rain delay, and then had another long wait after a long bottom of the 5th. He left with a 2-0 lead, and missed out on many many more. Yamamoto had a very positive outing and was feeling good about his Saturday start.
Prior to Saturday, Yamamoto’s longest outing was 4.2 IP which did not end well. The longest before that was 3.0 IP. He had a total of 9.2 IP in ST (3 games). 1.0 inning in Game 2. And yet everyone is convinced that Yamamoto had 6-7 innings in him. I liked that he walked away with 5.0 scoreless innings, and feeling good about the game.
Per Juan Toribio:
Over the last six days, Yamamoto obsessed over getting his mechanics right. This spring, Yamamoto dealt with some pitch tipping. He has since fixed that. Now, the Dodgers believe the mechanical cues are right where they need to be.
He made excellent improvements. Why push it? Why not leave the game with a positive vibe (Yamamoto’s term)? What if he went back out and got rocked? I know that would have been Doc’s fault as well. He would have been facing the lineup the third time. Doc is supposed to be all-knowing. He should know when the pitcher will pitch well, and when he won’t. It is a long season, and the better Yamamoto feels about his pitching this early, the better it is going to be over the remaining 157 games. We are really worried about this one game?
BTW, Lance Lynn threw 70 pitches and he did not come back out, and he was also pitching a shutout. What is wrong with Marmol? Lynn had another 1-2 innings in him.
I know wins do not mean anything to analytics, but maybe the Dodgers wanted to get Yamamoto that first MLB win for him, especially after his first outing. Maybe it means something to Yamamoto.
Now to Joe Kelly.
As has been brought up by me and others, the piggyback approach effectively takes your bullpen down to 7. With Yarbrough going 3.0 innings on Thursday, the earliest he would be able to pitch again would be Sunday…maybe (he didn’t). Grove, Brasier, Hudson, Kelly, Vesia, Hurt, Phillips. Grove, Brasier, and Phillips each pitched Friday. Doc was probably counting on going Hudson, Kelly, Vesia, and Hurt following 5 innings from Yoshi. Hudson did what he was supposed to do.
Coming into the game, Kelly had not pitched in a regular season game since Game 1 (March 20). 1.0 IP, 8 pitches/7 strikes. March 25 against LAA in a meaningless ST game, he threw 0.2 innings, 7 pitches/5 strikes. 15 pitches from March 20 and 12 strikes. That was 10 days between meaningful games.
Kelly walked the first batter, Nolan Gorman (5 pitches). Hit Arenado (1 pitch). And Carpenter reached on catcher’s interference (1 pitch). First out was sac fly on an 0-2 pitch. Now he has thrown 10 pitches and he should be done? Without a complete bullpen? Kelly has been known to load the bases on BB and HBP, and then strike out the side. Maybe the Dodgers wanted to see if he could get out of this inning. He didn’t.
Let’s look back a year. The Dodgers bullpen was horrendous until mid-June and then once they figured out who the correct pitchers should be, they became the best bullpen in MLB. Really, who does Roberts have that he can rely on. Alex Vesia? We saw what he could do on Sunday.
Gus Varland gave up a 3-run HR in relief of Walker Buehler. John Rooney also gave up a run in relief. There may not be a lot in OKC outside of the former MLB pitchers.
After Saturday’s game, the Dodgers optioned Kyle Hurt. They brought up former Padres reliever, Nabil Crismatt. To make room for Crismatt, Emmett Sheehan was moved to the 60 day IL to make room on the 40 man. Crismatt pitched two shutout quality innings on Sunday. 1 hit and 3 K.
The Dodgers have to be able to rely on their bullpen if they have any chance of reaching much less winning the WS. They might as well see early on who should be considered, and who shouldn’t. This was one game. Kelly was outstanding in Game 1, and horrid in Game 5. Kelly is going to have a lot more good games than games like he had on Saturday.
Let’s concentrate on the Saturday positives.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched an outstanding 5.0 innings.
- Daniel Hudson had his second excellent relief appearance. He looks to be healthy again. (Sunday follow up – Great closing save on Sunday).
- Kyle Hurt pitched an excellent 2.0 innings, then was given an impossible task with Victor Scott II on 2B to begin the 10th. Cardinals just put the bat on the ball, and Scott II easily scored after 2 ground ball outs. Something the Dodgers could not do.
- Evan Phillips was able to pitch in back to back games, and struck out the only batter he faced.
- Mookie Betts is still on another planet. 3-4, including single, double, and HR.
- Freddie Freeman and Will Smith each went 3-5 and had hits WRISP.
- Gavin Lux was 2-5.
As an aside, I understand tedraymond’s position on Joe Kelly. He is certainly not alone. I did not like Ramirez being hit in the ribs in the playoffs. But I have zero problems with him not being afraid to pitch inside and maybe issue a payback pitch (or two or three). I thought what he did to Carlos Correa was outstanding. That was common in the 60’s.
I agree that Kelly is overpaid. I have no idea where that amount came from, or why it was justified. I would have preferred they would have signed Brent Sutter (LHRP) who signed with Cincinnati for $2.5MM, and $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. Is Kelly the only overpaid Dodger? I don’t think so.
BTW, does Doc get the credit for Sunday’s win?
MiLB GAME SUMMARY
Tacoma Rainiers (Seattle) 7 – OKC Baseball Club 6
Walker Buehler made his first rehab start for 2024, and pitched well. He got through 2.0 perfect innings and the first batter in the 3rd, before he issued a walk. With two out, he issued another walk and then allowed a single for the Rainier first run. Andy Pages had a throwing error, and a second run scored.
He got the third out, and was at 46 pitches. He came back out for the 4th, and got the first out. Samad Taylor then hit a HR off a middle in change. It was hit 109.4 MPH and traveled 437 feet. Taylor just sat on that change, and it did not move much at all. He surrendered a single on the next pitch (knuckle curve). That was the end of the night for Buehler. Buehler threw 54 pitches/31 strikes. He allowed 4 runs (3 earned), 3 hits, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HR. He threw all 6 of his pitches.
- 4-seam fastball – 19
- Cutter – 13
- Knuckle Curve – 6
- Sinker – 8
- Slider – 4
- Change – 4
His 4-seamer sat at 94-95. He got the velo up to 95.7 on the 4 seamer. His sinker was 93-94.
RHRP Gus Varland entered and hit the first batter he faced. After a ground out, Varland surrendered a 3-run HR. Varland retired the side in order in the 5th.
LHRP John Rooney entered in the 6th. He walked the first batter, and then threw a WP. After a ground out moved the runner to 3rd, he scored on a single, and a 7-3 lead.
OKC jumped out to a 3-0 lead after 3. Ryan Ward and Trey Sweeney hit solo HRs. Andre Lipcius singled, stole 2nd and scored on a Chris Owings single.
In the 7th, Drew Avans drew a BB and scored on Andy Pages’ triple.
In the 9th, Chris Owings opened the inning with a single. With 2 outs, Trey Sweeney singled and OKC had runners on 2nd and 3rd. Miguel Vargas singled to plate both runners, but Ryan Ward grounded out to end the game.
- Trey Sweeney – 2-3, 2 BB, HR (1), 2 runs, 2 RBI
- Ryan Ward – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI
- Andre Lipcius – 2-4, double (1), 1 run
- Chris Owings – 2-4, 1 run, 1 RBI
- Andy Pages – 1-4, 1 BB, triple (1), 1 RBI
- Miguel Vargas – 1-5, 2 RBI
Buehler will get another 3-4 rehab starts. I expect his command will greatly improve, and I expect to see greater velos. This was a great start for his rehab to return to the rotation.
Here’s my opinion on this…Duke said it best…
“Relying on multiple relievers runs the risk that at least one will have a bad day–and this time it was Kelly.”
this is accurate. The more middle relievers you use the chances of winning decrease. For the reason above. It also is a problem because by end of season they are overused, often injured and tired. Last season the Dodger bullpen logged a lot of innings and their starting pitchers threw the least amount of innings in all of MLB.
The Dodger’s strategies and game management are weak and predictable. Their primary game strategies are as follows,
1. heavy bullpen usage nearly every game. 4-6 middle relievers almost daily.
2.starting pitchers are hooked at 80 pitches every start. No matter what the situation, score or inning. If the starter is throwing a shutout, or even a no-hitter, once they reach 80 they’re done.
3. constant lefty/righty match-ups on offense. If a lefty is pitching, guys like Rojas and Barnes are starting. Despite those guys being some of the worst hitters in baseball. Rojas and Barnes couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat.
in Sunday’s game, Muncy and Smith two of their most productive hitters were on the bench and they scored no runs until the 7th inning. Then Muncy hits the game winning home run. Imagine how much easier the win might have been had Muncy and Smith started. Muncy only ends up back in the game because the Cardinals hooked their lefty and thought in a right hander. Will the Dodgers ever learn from this?
frankly this is annoying. Its one thing if guys like Rojas, Barnes were good hitters but they are not. I understand Barnes has to catch 60-70 games a year because he is the backup catcher and Rojas is an excellent defender, but those guys should never start just because a lefty is on the mound. They’re terrible hitters and normally the Dodgers score very little when they’re in the starting lineup. I actually looked at the numbers from last year and counted up how many times they scored 1 or 0 runs with those guys in the lineup and it happened often. I would have to pull the numbers again but it was around 30% of those games. Way too many times honestly.
on the pitching side, if the Dodgers had a lock down bullpen that would be a different story, but the bullpen is average. They have a few effective relievers. Phillips is great, brusdar is very good when healthy. Hudson can get outs, and Yarbrough is decent enough, but none of them strike fear in opposing hitters.
baseball is a game of adjustments, adjustments by the players, manager. Coaches and front office. These strategies are the reason why they get destroyed in the playoffs every year. Its not the main reason but a huge factor.
I like Roberts and have always defended him, and I can understand the opposing views here. Hes a good manager and runs the clubhouse very well. The Dodgers are so much better with him then without him, but these strategies are meant to be used sparingly throughout the season, especially the postseason. Lefty/righty matchups are meant to be used in the late innings when a tough reliever comes in.
Middle relievers should be used sparingly as well. Innings from your rotation are important and starters should go deep into games.
The Dodgers seem to have a tendency to baby and coddle the players too much and it never leads to to preventing injuries. Did innings limits help prevent Dustin may from getting hurt? Gonsolin, Urias?
starting pitchers should pitch 150 innings and 6-7 innings per start. Its not asking much. There’s no reason to believe they can’t. Nobody is asking for complete games and 200 innings, but 150 and 25 starts per year is not unreasonable. If they can’t because of injuries, then maybe they should be in the pen. If they can’t because management refuses to let them do it, then they are being coddled.
I know Roberts is a players manager and doesn’t like to challenge the players. Its not his style, but maybe its time to adjust a little. Many of you are from the old era. Mickey Mantle played a good portion of his career with no cartilage in his knees. Sandy Koufax once pitched with nerve damage and a numb hand. I know those are extreme examples, but I find it hard to believe the starting pitchers can’t make more than 80 pitches occasionally or pitch 150 innings.
Thats my take guys, I hope you had a great Easter.
(Sorry for a few typos, I’m typing on my phone)
Couple of questions;
1. If Barnes should play 60-70 games, when should he start?
2. Stone is a ground ball pitcher. Muncy isn’t the best fielder. Is there no logic to having Hernandez playing third?
3. If cutting May’s innings still lead to arm problems, how does increasing his load help? Throwing 100 lead to harm problems. It’s a league wide issue and to my knowledge, no team has found an answer.
Yes, Rojas is a glove first player but it is funny that he has hit more home runs than Ohtani.
Trey Sweeney might be a guy.
[…] it is real. So real that Jeff Dominique of http://www.LaDodgerChronicles.com wrote a piece called “Damn That Dave Roberts!” Everytime something goes wrong for the Dodgers, RDS sets in with some […]
Nice bounce back game for the Dodgers. For a fifth starter Stone had a decent outing. Loved Muncy’s mini bat flip and reaction on his HR. Kind of like Grandal’s bat drop when he hit a HR.
Crismatt’s performance was a surprise. I hadn’t realized he had been called up. If he can continue pitching like that or close to it while the BP gets some players back from injury that would be a big boost.
Here come the Giants for three games with Paxton taking the mound for the first game tonight. Glasnow and Miller will be pitching games two and three. I like the starting staff so far. It was good to see Yamamoto get back on track. Anxious to see how Paxton does. It looks like Buehler will return soon. And then Kershaw after the All Star break? Very nice.
Carry on.
I still can’t see the fascination with Vesia as someone to rely on in the bullpen. Last season, he was hanging by a thread. Nothing has really changed for him so why does Roberts predictably go to him? This ties in with Scott’s questioning of the multiple reliever philosophy that Doc is using. Very dangerous. We need to rely on our pitching staff to come to play, not minimize their time on the field.
I hated that a 3rd run had to be charged to Stone because Vesia walked 2 and hit one to move the runner Stone left behind to move around the bases.
Kelly is a threat to bean a hitter every time he throws a ball.
Wins and losses for pitchers have become meaningless. Hurt goes 2.2, gives up 1 and gets the loss while Kelly goes .2, gives up 4 earned and gets a BS. And we’ve all seen a pitcher get one out and a win.
I have no problem with Yamamoto going 5. I was surprised he got that many. As I said yesterday we better get used to the fact we will see a lot of pitchers pulled before they complete 6. It’s just how the Dodgers think. Third time through the lineup will be handled by the bullpen more often than not.
Something else we will see a lot of this year are platoons against LHP. Again, that’s what the numbers say to do.
Betts won’t stay this hot and hopefully Ohtani won’t stay this cold. He’s too good to keep OPSn under .700. Unless of course….
Every team the Dodgers play this year have them circled on their calendar. That’s why the Dodgers will only win 105 this year.
Teoscar Hernandez is truly a boom or bust hitter. Fun facts for Teoscar. After the first six games he’s on pace for 75 HRs, 150 RBIs, and 300 strikeouts (46% K rate) for the 2024 season. He will earn every penny of his $23.5MM contract! I know it’s absurd, but I thought it another too early in the season fun stat fact.
” who should be considered and who shouldn’t “ part of that I think we all know. Kelly is Kelly and he should not be in high leverage situations same with Vesia. Doc should already know that. I could c Vesia improving but Kelly no. As doc says they have a track record. La plays the long game assuming the playoffs so patience is a plan. But teams that were on the cusp of getting into the playoffs have to make every game count. Doc has to play who he is given I get it. So why not put Kelly in before Hudson to give us more time to recover. Vesia being the only lefty has to be used but it will be a high wire act. The Dodgers win the regular season due to depth and quality roster. When they get to the playoffs they are not getting away with patience u have to have some urgency. When the playoffs start who wants to c the dodgers with a lead and Vesia and Kelly on the mound?
Some excellent comments this morning. Here are my thoughts:
*As salaries for pitchers has risen their expectations have declined. I’m on record for not liking 85 pitch ceilings as reasonable expectations for a starter. The thing that is overlooked is that pitch counts aren’t adjusted as the season progresses and arm strength should be building. 100 pitches in April isn’t the same as in September. But the fear on wear and tear over the season has made my theory obsolete. I don’t subscribe to the theory that an arm has only so many quality bullets in it and when they are used up, you get injured. You know how to avoid pitching injuries? Don’t pitch at all. and that’s what it’s getting to.
I also still believe that the hitters tell the skipper when a pitcher is at his end of his outing. Not a computer predicting a pitcher’s predicted ineffectiveness. The analysts now predict a guy can’t go 3 times through a line up? Is that for every pitcher?
I have had to resign myself to the fact that this is how it’s done now. But I don’t like it.
*Karl Ravech describes a pitch from Stone last night as a “rising sinker”. Isn’t that an Oxymoron? Actually, I think his 2 seamer is misnamed. Like Joe Kelly, but less so, he has arm-side run on that pitch, but it doesn’t sink.
*Stone had a nice outing especially early. He seemed to lose command with his other pitches and he threw too many change ups. He and Barnes fell in love with the change. I know it’s his best out pitch but guys seemed to sit on it due to it’s overuse. Sitting on a change up is somewhat unique as MLB hitters hate the prospect of being tardy on a fastball so sitting on a change can make them look silly.
When Stone falls behind with his other stuff, a change up is coming.
Of his 85 pitches, 41% were change ups. That’s Jaime Moyer territory for a guy with a 95+, 4 seamer. Only 49% of his pitches were 4 seam or 2 seamers – “sinkers”. The bigger problem to me is anything moving away from a right handed hitter accounted for only 9% (cutter 6%, curve 3%) of his pitches. I think I’d scrap one of those 2 pitches and work on a quality, reliable slutter or something going right to left in the strike zone, that he can land for strikes. He doesn’t need 5 pitches, when he scraps 4 of them to get an out.
The accolades by broadcasters is so over the top. Ravech described Elly De La Cruz as a “phenomenal infielder.” He’s not. He does have a phenomenal arm. That’s different.
I’ll be damn. Muncy with a 2 run homer for a game winner. Nice to see.
I’m in the camp, so far, that our platoons are all too predictable and too early in games. It was obvious last year down the wire. All a team had to do was change the pitcher by the 5th and our lineup flipped. Just change the arm side and you get a new lineup. That works if every player is equal in hitting ability and they aren’t. A couple of pitching changes and we were out of players. Heyward, for example, hit LHP pretty well this spring but now he won’t see any LHP. CT3, in 2023 had reverse splits, hitting .255 vs RHP and only .210 vs LHP, yet he’s rushed to the plate when a leftie comes in the game. It’s a self-fulfilling prophesy and way too predictable.
https://theathletic.com/5325032/2024/03/08/elbow-injuries-mlb-pitchers/
Great article. A couple of key points:
Higher velocity is a significant reason for arm injuries.
Sweeper and power change are also causing arm injuries.
Where do the Dodgers concentrate their search for pitching? Power arms, and then work to develop the sweeper and power change. Why do so many LAD pitchers have plus plus changes? Why do they switch their pitchers to more of a sweeper than the slider? Evan Phillips/Ryan Brasier? Because they can get outs with those pitches, and could not get outs with what they were throwing before.
From the article:
The pitcher who threw the most sweepers in MLB from 2021-2023? Shohei Ohtani
This is not just at the MLB level. It starts at youth baseball, and the current emphasis at winning with the buildup of these super travel baseball teams.
The Dodgers did not lose the last two NLDS because of relievers. Actually last year it was the bullpen that was the strongest part of the team. Starting pitching and p*** poor hitting doomed the Dodgers in 2023. The Dodgers had no starting pitching for the playoffs. Is that Roberts’ fault?
Why did they lose in 2022? The Dodgers were 5-34 WRISP in the 2022 NLDS, 2-26 in their last three games, all losses. They hit 4 HR in the series, and 3 solo in Game 2 which accounted for all of their runs. They lost by 2 (5-3), and were 0-8 WRISP. 0-9 WRISP in a 2-1 loss in Game 3. 2-9 in a 5-3 loss in Game 4.
It was not because the bullpen was overused.
I will blame Doc for 2019 NLDS debacle. Some head scratching in 2017, but the Dodgers lost that due to cheating. Doc should get credit for getting the Dodgers to the 2018 World Series, and for winning the 2020 World Series.
The Dodgers are calling up Dinelson Lamet. As I am writing this, no word as to the changes to the 26 man or the 40 man.
Dave Roberts says the Dodgers starters will get an extra day rest this week. Glasnow will pitch Wednesday, and Miller will open in Chicago on Friday. Who goes Tuesday? Lamet? Yarbrough? Both?
I’m agreeing with a lot of what Scott Andes said. Especially prioritizing defense over offense. It shouldn’t happen. If you can even do it with unreliable defense stats.
Carrying 2 LOOGY’s, Vesia and Yarbrough, doesn’t make sense in the 3 batter minimum rule era.
Doc not allowing Outman and Lux to have their at bats against a LHP the other day in a 7-1 game in the bottom of the 8th doesn’t make sense. Both need as many at bats against LHP as they can get, to work on getting better.
But I’m not sweating the first 2 things I said during the regular season because I think the Dodgers will easily win their division. But come playoff time, well that’s a different story.
And yet another idiot manager, John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays. On Sunday, the Blue Jays were leading 7-1 with one out in the bottom of the 5th. After facing 16 batters, and 69 pitches, Toronto’s starting pitcher, Kevin Gausman, was lifted. Granted he is working his way back from shoulder fatigue in early March, but another clear case of limiting pitches. I guess they have never heard of Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Ferguson Jenkins… Yes I am being sarcastic. I agree with the change. You have to protect your top starters and trust your bullpen. Mitch White pitched 3 shutout innings, only allowing 1 baserunner (BB), and got the win.
Damn all the strike outs and failing to score with runners at 3rd and less than 2 outs.
Bullpen game tomorrow. The amount of load management the Dodgers do this year for their starting pitching is going to be epic.
Hey Bear, I know the 27 Yankees are considered the best team of all time. But the 36-39 Yankees and 49-53 Yankees seem to have achieved more.
Too many SO’s. 10 SO in 29 AB’s. 34%. Not sustainable.