Prior to the Cody Bellinger signing with the Cubs, we were heading into the final week of February, with all teams playing at least one Spring Training game. The top 5 remaining free agents at that time were all Scott Boras clients:
- Cody Bellinger
- Blake Snell
- Jordan Montgomery
- Matt Chapman
- JD Martinez
The Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, and Cardinals jumped out the gate with multiple moves. The Phillies set the bar for 30+ year old elite pitchers, signing their own FA RHP, Aaron Nola, to a 7 year $172MM contract on 11/19/2023.
The Braves did not make noise with signing elite free agents, but they did take on bad contracts to be able to trade for desirable players.
- Jarred Kelenic
- Chris Sale
- Aaron Bummer
- David Fletcher – NRI expected to make team
Although, Atlanta did sign Reynaldo López on FA contract, and Luis Guillorme.
St. Louis immediately jumped on Kyle Gibson (11/21/2023), Lance Lynn (11/21/2023), and Sonny Gray (11/27/2023).
But the Dodgers broke the standard by signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshi Yamamoto, and committing to more than $1 Billion in salaries. Scott Boras was giddy. He could see the $$$$ mount. If Ohtani is worth $700MM, then Belli has to be worth north of $250MM. If a pitcher who has never pitched a MLB game gets a record $325MM contract, just how much is 2-time CY winner Blake Snell and WS Champion, Jordan Montgomery worth?
Earlier last week, some baseball journalists were pontificating which of the top four free agents would entertain a short term contract. It was opined that Snell (31), Montgomery (31), and Chapman (31) had already passed the age to take short term deals, and were looking for that one last big deal. OTOH, Bellinger is playing at baseball age 28, and should be able to get another bite at the apple with a short term contract this year.
Thus, Bellinger broke the stalemate, but it sure was not close to that $250MM+ contract Boras was pushing. $80MM for 3 years is a tad south of $27MM per year. It is a good AAV, but teams are not going to go 9 figures and long term for a questionable Cody Bellinger.
Why are teams so sheepish on giving Belli that long term deal? Teams are still unsure about who the real Belli is. Here is Belli’s 2023 statcast. Focus in on:
- Average Exit Velocity
- Barrel %
- Hard Hit %
Cody Bellinger 2023 Statcast
Now look at who Cody Bellinger was in 2022.
Cody Bellinger 2022 Statcast
Teams are apparently concerned that with Bellinger’s poor output in the hard hit and barrel categories in 2023, whether he can sustain the progress he made last year or revert back to 2022. They are paying him short term based on what he did last year, but neither the Cubs nor any other team were willing to commit to a $250MM deal over the long term.
Bellinger can opt out after both years. Will he? He does like playing in Chicago. However, next year’s free agent class is not particularly good.
While Blake Snell is a 2-time CY winner, for his other years he did not get a vote. While he had a wonderful year in 2023, he also led MLB in walks. The Yankees made an offer of 6 years for $150MM, showing optimism that he might be able to pitch at the elite level over that span, but not enough to give him near what was believed to be Boras’ asking price. – 9 years and $270MM. Sure, that is asking, but teams looking to sign Boras clients are very few to begin with, and with LAD and ATL not looking to sign Boras clients on long term deals, that really limits the number of teams in on the bidding. And this year, with the expected reduced local TV revenues, those teams might be willing to pay for Ohtani and Yamamoto, but not 31 year old pitchers with limited control and two years of excellent pitching.
Jordan Montgomery was believed to want to return to Texas, but right now, that is not going to happen. He is willing to go back to NYY but NYY was not as inviting. St. Louis had already made their starting rotation additions. Philadelphia resigned Aaron Nola, and has a very good rotation. NYM is not willing to spend on a 31 year old pitcher for long term and Carlos Rodón $$$. Montgomery’s wife is working her residency in a Boston hospital, and many thought that Boston was the logical landing spot. Unfortunately, this is the year that Boston is trying to be “financially responsible and sustainable.” Should he expect to get the same deal as Aaron Nola? Same baseball age. Same overall career. Both workhorses. Except Nola is a strikeout pitcher and Montgomery is a control soft contact pitcher. To offset that, Monty is left handed which is a premium teams are willing to pay for.
Boston would like to sign Monty, but not until his price comes down significantly. Could Boras been able to get Monty signed early? Would St. Louis have been willing to pay a premium for Montgomery before they signed Gray, Gibson, and Lynn? Could he have made a deal with Texas taking into consideration the short term cash flow concerns because of the local TV revenues? Texas is very concerned about their short term csh flow because they are not going to get their revenue from a bankrupt Diamond Sports Group. The Rangers will be working on a new TV deal, and with a WS Championship, that could have been a significant consideration. But it is not done, and the owners are trying to be financially responsible, with a payroll already over the CBT tier 1.
. Matt Chapman? I do believe he has been hampered by the Qualifying Offer more than any of the other free agents. Chapman is a game changer with the glove, but not necessarily with the bat. Teams are not willing to overpay for the glove AND lose a draft pick (or two). San Francisco, Chicago Cubs, Seattle, Arizona, and Toronto were the most likely pursuers for Chapman. San Francisco values defense, and Manager Bob Melvin was Chapman’s manager in Oakland. Arizona already addressed 3B with their trade for Eugenio Suarez. Seattle said they are out of the Chapman negotiations unless the price really drops. Chicago just signed Bellinger. For whatever reason, Toronto is not overwhelmed with the idea of Chapman returning to them. They thought that Chapman could be the missing piece on a championship team, but he was not. It was not Chapman’s fault of course, but he did not help either.
I still think that Chapman will sign with SF, but nowhere near where Boras believed he should be. You might also wonder after JDM saying he did not want to play in SF, how would that impact Chapman. I take that not because of the City, but Oracle Park being a terrible hitting stadium. It just sucks the power out of players. Barry Bonds does not count. He could hit them out of the Grand Canyon.
JDM – How many teams want a fulltime DH? Arizona went out of their way letting everyone know they wanted to sign a fulltime DH. Most figured it would be JDM because of how he hit there in 2017. Instead, Arizona went with Joc Pederson for a one-year, $12.5MM guarantee. Joc will receive a $9.5MM salary next season and is due a $3MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option valued at $14MM. Would JDM have accepted that? Would Arizona been willing to offer it? Perhaps, Boras has waited too long to get JDM signed. Toronto sign Justin Turner to be their primary DH. SF signed Jorge Soler to be their primary DH. Dodgers? They have a DH in the name of Shohei Ohtani. His options are…LAA, NYM,???
Boras definitely missed the market for Belli, and probably has for Snell, Montgomery, and JDM. But Boras has been used to pulling off the impossible in the past, so with Boras, never say never.
Cue the collusion charges by Boras after the free agents are signed.
What is the difference between barrel and sweet spot?
The sweetest spot of the barrel?
Don’t mean to be glib, but I think it’s as simple as that. It’s the point of the barrel that factors into F=MA…That is, Force equals Mass X Acceleration… And the sweet spot provides optimum mass. Same rule applies on a golf swing.
Nice piece, Jeff.
I do think the Ohtani and Yamamoto deals warped expectations to some degree, but I also think Boras shouldn’t have read too much into that. Looking back, it’s easy to think of Ohtani and Yamamoto riding the biggest wave in a set that had included several mega-contracts for several players.
Ohtani and Yamamoto were far and away the most coveted players on the market. And it should have been also clear that the Dodgers have decided to compete in a global market, not a regional one like most teams.
Many people said, “Oh, Belli’s the best hitter after Ohtani,” but as you point out the internal numbers suggested he was a bit lucky. The drop from Ohtani’s bat to Belli’s is long and steep. Belli is back to being a good player, but not a great player. I think front-loading this contract was smart, because he may not be as lucky this season.
Belli, Snell, Montgomery, Chapman–there were questions about all of them that would reduce demand. Add to that the Bally bankruptcy mess and teams uncertain about their revenues. It’s really strange that the Rangers can’t bring back their postseason hero.
JD Martinez had a really good ’23. I think Justin Turner and Joc were smart to sign contracts a bit early knowing that the DH competition included JDM.
It’s been reported JD turned down an offer from the Giants. Will the next offer be as large?
A buddy of mine took a buyout from one employer–he was making about $9,000 per year– and then got offered a job at a startup with a salary of $70,000. We happened to be at Angels game when he got the call. I thought he should jump at because (a) it was a pretty cool gig and (b) he was unemployed, making $0 in income. But my friend was proud, and thought he could do better despite a shrinking job market.
Within a few weeks he regretted his decision. He bounced back and after a few years of struggle landed a job with the biggest salary of his life–but it’s not a job he loves, it’s a job he tolerates. He hopes to retire ASAP.
I’m hoping that the Angels might catch a break in the falling talent market.
“To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph”
“Colloquially, a player who hits the ball solidly is said to have gotten the “sweet spot” of the bat on the ball. The sweet spot classification quantifies that as a batted-ball event with a launch angle ranging from 8 to 32 degrees”
I’m interested to hear what others have to say on this. It’s a good question.
Times article today going off on how exceptional Ohtani is at what he does. Could be a 40/40 man this year.
As for Bora$, he does have a reputation. I recall seeing a picture of him a while back with devil horns on his head. His yet to sign players will all do just fine. I think it’s possible what the Dodgers did skewed the entire structure. I’m sure it will eventually even out.
Can’t say I’m disappointed SF is striking out. SD should be better and either they or Arizona will get a Wild Card spot. Both would no doubt be jacked to meet the Dodgers in a short series.
I think 40-40 underestimates Ohtani’s ability
He could be 50-50, but he won’t be because the Dodgers shouldn’t run that much.
Shohei was on a 50+ HR pace last season before he strained his lat.
It will be interesting to see how well he performs at DH with so much talent in the lineup and without having to prepare to pitch.
I’ve got a problem with a definition that requires technology to assess an exit velocity of 98.
Fine for big leaguers. But I doubt anybody on my son’s U14 team can get generate a 98 mph exit velocity.
But they certainly barrel the ball, and sometimes find the sweet spot.
A sweet spot is microcosm of a barrel. A more finely defined version of a barrel. The sweet spot definition that Badger gave is how it is defined for Statcast percentages. Not every barrel is a sweet spot.
Here is an article that provides a better understanding. Even though it comes from a Fantasy Baseball standpoint, that does not diminish the understanding.
Here is a YouTube video on hitting on the barrel vs sweet spot.
I’m surprised a barrel doesn’t include hard hit ground balls. A 100 mph one hopper that gets through the infield and rolls to the wall is still 100 mph loud hit.
I need to get my 14-year-old to do more tee work.
The “sweet spot,” as I understand it, reflects both the best spot on the barrel and the optimal moment of acceleration on the swing.
If you have a poor swing, the sweet spot is sour.
Barrel awareness is impacted by the swing.
Thank you for the video.
I come across these over the years and I stick them in my files. Sometimes I can even go back and find them.
I’m usually all for players getting their money, but I have no problem seeing Boras screw this up royally. I don’t believe a single one of these guys is going to get close to the contract they were looking for.
I’ve always felt Boras and the Dodgers don’t have that great of a relationship, he uses the Dodgers to drive up prices, then signs his clients with another team. I wasn’t
too impressed with his comments last season, about the Dodgers not handling Bellinger right. Everyone in baseball knows the Dodgers have a top notch medical, and training staff. To top it off, I’ve always thought he had Beltre sign with Seattle so he could get one of his other clients to fill our void, I can’t quite remember who it was, but I remember he was adequate at best, help me out here bear I’m sure you remember who we signed, after Beltre left.
although the Dodgers did get a heck of a deal on JD Martinez last season, but that doesn’t change my opinion of Boras much.
They did not sign a third base replacement. Mike Edwards played the majority of the games at third in 2005 backed up by Willy Aybar. Who they did sign was JD Drew. If I remember correctly, Drew signed a five-year deal with an opt out after two. I think he was a Boras client. His first year, he was injured and played in only 72 games. He hit 15 homers but drove in only 36 runs. The second he hit 20 and drove in 100. He hit .283 that year. Then he left as a free agent and signed a five-year deal with the Red Sox. They used multiple 3rd basemen in 05 and 06. The primary 3rd baseman in 07 was Garciaparra. He shared time with Betamit, LaRoche, and Shea Hillenbrand. Guys like Blake DeWitt, Casey Blake, and Juan Uribe manned the position until 2015 when JT took over as the regular 3rd baseman.
JD Martinez took a below-market offer from the Dodgers for both personal and professional reasons. Van Scoyoc revived his career and became a close friend. He and Mookie had a good relationship too. And he wanted to be with a team that had a shot at the championship.
He had a really good season, but it hasn’t elevated his market much. It’s reported he turned down $14m for one year from the Giants–and then Giants signed Soler to a 3-year deal.
He’d be a great fit for a few teams, I think. But I’m glad the Diamondbacks didn’t sign him,
I think Boras really doesn’t care. He will get his money even though his clients might not get what they want. I am not surprised JD did not want to play in SF full time. His career average at AT&T is .205 with 3 homers and 13 driven in. By contrast, he has hit .315 in Anaheim. If you were going simply by BA, he should sign with Colorado. He has hit .421 at Coors with 7 homers and 22 driven in in 17 games.
Just noticed I wrote my friend was earning about $9,000 per year… Typos happen.. He was earning about $90,000
Boras is bad for baseball and I’m tired of people defending him.
He hasn’t been bad for baseball players
Baseball can afford him.
Why?
I agree. Boras has been the most influential agent in the game. Teams do not need to sign his clients. Teams need to do just what they did this year…make an offer and if it appears it is going nowhere make a quick pivot the next option. Boras can cry collusion all he wants, but when the Dodgers pay $1 billion in commitments, and multiple teams were all in at that price for both Ohtani and Yamamoto, it is clear that teams are willing to pay the premium for premium elite, but not for simply good. Or occasionally elite.
NYY is not upset about Gerrit Cole. Philadelphia is not upset about Bryce Harper. Texas is not upset with Corey Seager or Marcus Semien. Of course, LAA is not happy with Anthony Rendon. You win some, you lose some.
Where Boras gets hurt is when the Dodgers are not interested in his multi year 9 figure clients. They did okay with JDM last year, and will hopefully do well with Paxton on a 1 year this year. The Dodgers have three years of arbitration negotiation with Brusdar Graterol before he reaches FA. We will see how Boras influences those negotiations.
Couple the Dodgers with the Braves, who will not negotiate with Boras, and two high revenue teams are taken out of the Boras equation.
OTOH, if you are a fan of Oakland, KC, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Miami, Tampa Bay, I can understand why you would be upset with an agent whose clients have no chance of landing with your team. Boras does not care. He would rather have 5 high revenue teams bidding for his clients. Boras is an agent. Players love him. My son met Scott Boras, and said he was a great guy. And while Boras does take chances on MiLB players, my son was not one of his clients. Even those players making minimum can thank Boras for increasing the $$$ value of the player. He is highly influential with MLBPA, but he does not make the rules. I think this year, he had too many high level clients, and waited too long. His clients will still get paid, just not what he was looking for.
Even after this offseason, I bet Alex Bregman and Corbin Burnes do not change agents.
Why should fans of small market teams be upset with a millionaire agent and not “their” team’s billionaire owner?
Because they have no chance at any of the elite players represented by Boras. When was Oakland last WS appearance? Cincinnati? Pittsburgh? Miami? Not only will none of those teams be signing Corbin Burnes or Alex Bregman next year, but they will not even try. Take a look at the attendance for those teams. Do you think the fans like their teams coming in last or out of the playoffs every year? I have family in KC, and they stop following the Royals at or around the 4th of July. And they are a total afterthought once the Chiefs start summer practices.
Ah. I blame that on owners.
I am not sure what you are saying. Do you think that Pittsburgh, Miami, Oakland, Cincinnati, Cleveland owners have the $$$ to sign Ohtani, Yamamoto, Gerrit Cole, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado? Juan Soto? Corbin Burnes? Alex Bregman? I can guarantee you that not one of those teams will sign Soto, Burnes, or Bregman next year, all Boras clients. Or Bellinger if he opts out? Are you saying that everyone of those owners has the ability to pay what it will take to get any of those players? Or KC after spending what they did on Witt Jr.? I think you overestimate what these low revenue owners can spend on payroll.
Maybe not all of those specific cities, as I’m not sure they are all owned by billionaires, which was my contention.
Definitely one of them.
Oakland’s owner is worth 4.3 billion dollars. Of course he could pay for a 500 million dollar contract.
Huh!?
Yeah, I suppose he could – if he wanted to liquidate a significant portion of hard assets so he could make a big pile of money to set it on fire.
I don’t consider him a bad person for not wanting to do that. That would be irrational and stupid.
Very good point Bluto, fans rarely blame ownership for their teams woes.
Unless you’re an Angel fan.
Sort of a forgettable Spring Game yesterday vs the A’s. Nice win and saw some good things.
Nice to see Outman have a day. His bomb off a LHP was nice to see. He made a nice catch, got another knock, stole a base and took 3rd on the same pitch that was wild. Nice hustle. I like the kid.
Phillips looked like always, great, as did Brasier who stuck out the side. Vesia was effective but not crisp. He’s always a slow starter. Our pitching depth is pretty amazing giving up 5 hits all day.
Freddie showed a little limp after his fly out to left. He was immediately replaced defensively. I hope it was just my imagination. I think he’s schedule to play today so we’ll see.
Muncy had a typical day. Took a called strike 3 with 2 on and followed that up the next AB with a 2 run homer (off a LHP). Max being Max.
Vargas looked terrible at the plate. He looks like he’s swing under water. Long swing sort of feeling for the ball. He has some work to do to shorten that stroke with some bat speed.
No Show-hei again but I hear he will DH tomorrow, which is fine with me as I have tickets. Me nice to see his first appearance
I swear 2 out of every 3 jerseys and Dodger tops worn at Camelback are Ohtani. They are everywhere. Name paying off already.
Thank you Phil for the report. I agree that the LAD pitching looks like it could be better than advertised, which was outstanding. A lot will depend on Yamamoto and we get to see him this week. Will he go two?
Vesia is a rythm and routine pitcher probably more than most. It took him a half a year to get used to the pitch clock. But once he found his rhythm and routine after every pitch and out, he was very good. He is going to need to pitch in the Spring.
I do not know if you will be watching the game on TV today, but Vargas is the DH in today’s game, and probably will not be in tomorrow’s game while you are at Camelback. I would be interested in what you have to say. I thought Vargas’ swing was a bit slow and tardy, but that could have been just that day. OTOH, Outman’s quick to the ball with a lot of wrist seems to be his best swing. He is so strong that he does not have to take that Max Muncy swing to hit it out. And that short swing will be helpful with 2 strikes. He runs into trouble when he tries to muscle his way out of slumps.
Here is that short swing that got out pretty quickly.
Phil, let us know how Shohei looks like live.
The Dodgers are not going to lose $$$ on the Ohtani contract.
You’re welcome Jeff and I’m happy to hear you welcome my in-person analysis. I too think it may have just been one of those days for Vargas. Hoping to see a shorter, quicker bat to ball today.
Agree on your good analysis of Outman’s swing. No need to muscle up and get big. Using the entire park will be nice to see and not get pull happy which Max does too much. James’ swing looks even shorter as he keeps both hands on the bat with no Walt Hriniak finish.
Phil,
Walt Hriniak there is a name I haven’t heard in a while. Coached/Taught his philosophy to several Red Sox back in the day. If I remember correctly Wade Boggs swore by him. Charley Lau was his mentor and as a White Sox coach, he worked with Michael Jordan. Frank Thomas I believe praised Hriniak for his hitting methods as well.
I’m curious to know if you ever crossed paths with Hriniak in your time in baseball.
That began happening the day after they signed him and the first Ohtani jerseys went on sale. He broke records the first day and he passed guys like Messi and Reynaldo who have huge jersey sales. He also passed Harper, one of MLB’s best selling jerseys,
Happy Birthday to Preacher Roe. Roe would be 108 today if he was alive. Born in 1916.
One of the all-time great baseball names.
Bear, how about the all-time baseball name team, to be managed by Cornelius Alexander MacGillicuddy?
From the Dodgers, I nominate Dazzy, Preacher, PeeWee and Mookie. They can play with Dizzy, Yogi and Chipper.
Our Mookie wasn’t the first, but he is the best.
A couple of pitcher updates:
Interesting quote from Mark Prior on Walker Buehler apparently not having completed his rehab when he made a rehab start in OKC.
“I don’t think, at least from my perspective, he ever actually completed that rehab. So it’s building him back up to get him to the point where he was at the end of [last year]. Finish and complete the rehab. And then make sure he’s ready to throw at this level.”
I think that is what happened to Dustin May in 2022. He came back too early. I think the Dodgers are going to be extra extra extra careful.
Also, Emmet Sheehan is experiencing general soreness, but should be ready for Opening Day. This looks like a golden opportunity for Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, and Kyle Hurt to make impressions.
I think Gavin Stone is ready.
Interesting quote from Mark Prior about Walker Buehler. Not sure of the entire context but didn’t sound good. However, Walker was on Just Baseball podcast Sunday, and he seemed upbeat. He said he plans to face live batters on Tuesday. He still hopes to pitch in a Cactus League game, but admitted that is uncertain still. He seemed content with his progress so far. He said his velocity will pick up once he faces batters. He was happy for Bellinger getting a contract, and complimentary of his new teammates.
I was also able to see practice field action Monday. Miguel Rojas was taking extra batting practice, and Jason Heyward stayed late to work directly with him. Heyward seemed very helpful and looked like a great teammate. He seems like a great clubhouse presence.
My wife’s favorite player is Outman, and even she can see the difference in his swing when he is struggling. Outman hit a GS against the Cubs last year on a very similar swing, and he was in a groove at that time. The second video is Outman. The two were linked together.
Margot traded to Twins. Ok Vargas, this your chance
Vargas, Pages or maybe Kike returns.
Would they really leave Vargas on the bench or return him to OKC where he would get far more ABs and work in LF. Pages is getting close, but he is not there yet. This smells like a Kiké Hernández signing.
A prescient nose.
*knows
Eau de Kike.
For the discerning Dodger fan.
The Dodgers have traded outfielder Manuel Margot to the Twins, reports Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Had a feeling he wasn’t going to last long with us. Wonder if this means they are still thinking about resigning Kike?
Return is Noah Miller. Miller is a 21 (yo) SS who was the 36th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft
Career .644 OPS in the minor leagues. #23 on MLB Pipeline and #18 Fangraphs
Heard Doncon going with Margot and $$
I understand the inclusion of Doncon going with a larger contract. Hopefully the $$$ is the money the Dodgers got from Tampa Bay for the 2025 option, and nothing else.
Miller is about 10 months older than Doncon. Miller was at A+ last year, while Doncon was at Rancho (A).
Miller is a true SS while Doncon is more of a utlity infielder. Miller is a defense over offense SS. He is another SS from Wisconsin. Both Miller and Doncon were the #23 prospects for their respective teams.
I like the addition of another true SS in the LAD organization.
Doncon didn’t get much love in hard-core prospect circles. We got many more just as good in the pipeline.
It all feels like one thing too much between the $$$ given up and the prospect.
If it was Margot and the $6mm or Margot and Doncon, I think I’d evaluate it as fair.
But I know nothing, especially how valuable 40 man spots are becoming for this team.
Another SS from Wisconsin? So maybe Lux without the hype?
Smart moves, I think. Kike is so much more versatile than Margot. Manny, we hardly knew ye…
Dodgers really like Kike a lot. And vice-versa. I wonder if AF or Gomes were telling Kike to be patient and not sign with the Angels or Pads or Giants…Deal is reported at 1 year for $4 million. Seems fair.
The trade brought to mind a web gem Kike had late last season at 3B. It was impossible to imagine Max making that play. Some people say Taylor is a better infielder than Kike, but I’m not sure. Maybe Kike is better at 3B, and CT3 is better in the middle.
The move reinforces the infield without hurting the OF. Kike backs up Outman too.
I’m optimistic about Max improving against lefties, but it’s good that Kike or CT3 can give him the occasional day off. And Roberts will want to work Rojas into the lineup as well. Last season, Rojas was decent against lefties.
Dodgers over-loaded against a lefty:
Mookie 2B
Freddie 1B
Shohei DH
Will C
Teoscar RF
Taylor 3B/LF
Kike LF/3B
Outman CF
Rojas SS
Bench: Lux, Max, Heyward, Barnes
I don’t think there’s another headline move in the works, but I’d much rather see Devin Williams than Kenley…
Kike totally failed at SS when Boston tried to plug him in there to replace Story when he was hurt. Was a -6 in defensive runs saved as a SS. Vargas has no chance to make the 26 man out of spring training. The Dodgers value defense, and he would be 6th on the depth chart as an outfielder. Heyward is a gold glove caliber defender.
Max is not going to sit against lefties too often, he hasn’t in the past so I see no reason why they would start this year.
Depends on how he hits.
Last season, Max’s OPS against lefties was .641, with an OBP of only .263. Against righties, his OPS was .881 with a.363 OBP.
Against lefties, Taylor had a .795 OPS, with 10 HR in only 138 ABs.
Also, here’s a breakdown of Kike’s starts with the Dodgers:
“… Hernández started 11 games at third base, eight games each in center field and shortstop, seven games in left field, five games at second base, twice in right field, and even started the one game at first base that Freddie Freeman didn’t start, the day after the Dodgers clinched the National League West.”
I was surprised that Kike started 11 games at 3rd after his midseason acquisition.
A lot will depend how well Max is playing. I don’t expect a straight platoon, but Roberts wants to keep bench players active. When lefties are pitching, Roberts will sometimes move Max to the bench in favor of Kike or Taylor. Nice bat to come off the bench.
It’s been fun:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/dodgers-trade-manuel-margot-twins.html
According to Jeff Passan, Kike is nearing a one year deal with the Dodgers.
Good to see Kike back.
Ryan Yarbrough is very underrated. He will be a
very valuable player this season and it was folly to leave him off NL Div Roster when we were so short of pitching.
Austin Barnes should not be our back up Catcher and has no place hitting Clean Up in this stacked Dodgers lineup.
He cannot hit and he can’t throw anyone out. Ever.
The guff about him being Kershaw’s preferred receiver no longer has any relevance either.
Fedducia is a total unknown and no one else is ready.
Better hope for no Concussions or other mishaps to Will.
Gonna drive me nuts watching Barnes every 5 days or Getaway days.
Agree about the backup catcher; hopefully Hunter shows something, or Barnes rediscovers something.
Wat, not sure if you heard, but Arsenal/Man U set at Sofi Stadium July 27!
Barnes still can’t hit for jack.
And neither can Vargas. He looked overmatched today. Welcome back Kike, and bye bye Margot.
Who was Vargas facing?
Rooney’s box score is my kinda box score.
1st inning – K swinging against Jeff Criswell (RHP)
3rd inning – K swinging against Jaden Hill (RHP)
4th inning – reached 1st on SS throwing error against Matt Carasiti (RHP)
After starting out 2-2, Miguel has gone 0-9 with 4 K.
THanks!
That’s not a good way to make the opening day roster.
He now has even less of a chance of making the opening roster with Kike aboard.
No one on the Rockies 26 man. He was facing minor leaguers. Struck out 2 of his three at bats. 0-3 with two K’s.
Hoese got a couple of hits though.
Because the Dodgers don’t have anyone named Jack on their roster?
He couldn’t hit Jack in the Box.
He has cranked up more than a popup so maybe he just needs f few gears adjusted.
Poor Michael Busch. The Cubs just signed veteran 1B/OF Garrett Cooper to a MiLB contract to play 1B. He has been a decent MLB hitter over the years.
Cooper career batting – .268/.337/.435/.772 – 1,813 PA – 33 years old. Cooper can play 1B until Pete Crow-Armstrong takes over CF and Belli moves to 1B.
Busch is 1-2 (single) and BB this Spring.
As I recall, Cooper’s splits are pretty one-sided, as are Busch’s in the opposite direction. Maybe they’ll make a very effective platoon.
Some spring results for former LAD prospects:
Eddys Leonard – Detroit – 3-6, 1 double, 3 RBI
Jorbit Vivas – NYY – 2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI. 2 BB
Nick Nastrini – CWS – 1 GS, 2.0 IP, 1 R (earned), 1 hit, 1 K – Run scored on triple and ground out
Jordan Leasure – CWS – 1 G, 1.0 IP, no base runners, 1 K
We lost all the trades.
😄
Is there anyone more despicable than Scott Boras and his monopoly on free agency?
Oakland A’s owner? Frank McCourt? Reds owner Castellinni?
Ryan Braun. Barry Bonds. Roger Clemens.
Altuve. Correa. Bregman
Yes, indeed. And Rob Manfred.
I guess Manfred is more inept than despicable.
Don’t forget Josh Reddick.
Ha ha you got me there.
Artie Moreno
Boras only has that monopoly because players want to sign with him.
That’s their choice. They aren’t being forced to do it.
Nothing more despicable than all those players who chose to sign with Boras and give him a monopoly on free agency.
Should the players not sign with him? If you’re an MLB player, do you not want to maximize the return for your skills?
I suppose there are some players who take a more dispassionate, mercenary style of approach to signing contracts and don’t really have loyalty to teams and the cities in which they play, but some people are going to be like that. I don’t know that they are despicable for it. They don’t exist to make your or I happy. They operate on self-interest.
I think, ultimately, the players such as Freeman or Kershaw who do form bonds with their communities and sign more accommodating contracts to stay in one place are generally happier. They are getting a non-monetary reward through community.
I can’t in good faith hate on Seager for taking the money, but I hate him a little for taking the money.
How does he have a monopoly of free agency? The players are free to sign with whoever they want. It is up to the players to make a change if they do not feel they are getting adequate representation. Teams do not need to negotiate with Boras. Because he is so good at what he does, it becomes a monopoly?
Shohei Ohtani not represented by Boras. Yoshi Yamamoto not represented by Boras, and he beat a Boras client for the richest FA pitcher contract. Tyler Glasnow is not represented by Boras. Freddie Freeman not represented by Boras. Mookie Betts not represented by Boras. Clayton Kershaw not represented by Boras. Teoscar Hernandez not represented by Boras. While it is true that neither Mookie nor Glasnow were free agents, neither would have been Dodgers if Boras had represented them. Boras would have pushed going to free agency rather than negotiate the extensions both received after being recently acquired via trade.
The two best teams in baseball (on paper) going into the season, and their Scott Boras clients:
Dodgers – Brusdar Graterol and James Paxton
Braves – Nobody
Wasserman represents three players each from both teams.
He does have like 80% of the players in MLB I think. I could be wrong on that though, but he’s got the majority, which is like a monopoly.
But he does have a ton of influence. Some would think too much.
Not even close. Per MLBTradeRumors Agency data base, there are close to 150 agencies. There are thousands of players included in the data base. They inclued MLB, MiLB, and clients still in the database but no longer playing. Boras has 102 and Wasserman has 112. So Boras does not have as many clients as Wasserman and there are more than 140 additional agencies to consider. Go to MLB TradeRumors/Tools/Agency Data Base for the full list.
I will take a look at Cots Contracts and give another perspective. They generally include only players on the 40 man. Boras is nowhere close to having a monopoly on players.
It is a good research project for me.
CAA has 125 clients.
The number of Boras clients on MLB contracts included in Cots totals 66. That is not even 10%. Three teams have 5 Boras clients which constitutes the most of any team. All NL East: Miami, NYM, Philadelphia. Three teams have 4: Minnesota, Baltimore, and NYY. 5 teams have 0 Boras clients: Tampa Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Atlanta. All others have no more than 3.
The number of clients by agency per MLBTradeRumors Agency Database. Number of clients for 8 of the top agencies:
CAA 125
Wasserman 112
Boras 102
Bev Hills Sports 83
Ballengee Group 65
ISE Baseball 62
Octagon 57
ACES 54
Boras only makes up 15.45% of this list. This does not include the other 135 or so agencies.
In no way does Boras have 80% of MLB players as clients. They do not even have the most clients of all the agencies.
You do not like Boras, that’s fine. But don’t make up numbers that cannot be supported.
If you want to keep looking at this maybe you could look at the combined salaries of agents clients.
I think there have been a few Boras clients that have told him the team and the sign by date they wanted and he obliged.
Boras does what his clients want. He will get extensions if that is what the player wants. He did this with Altuve and Strasburg (and others). He does not like extensions, but he has said that he works for the player, and will oblige that player. Gerrit Cole wanted to sign before Christman, and he signed with NYY on 12/9. I believe Seager and Semien wanted to sign early in anticipation of the lockout. That being said, most players who select Boras believe he will get them the most $$$, and they are willing to wait.
IMO, he may have waited too long this year. I am not sure that Snell or Montgomery will be ready to start the season if they signed today. I would not be surprised to learn that Belli told Boras to get him into camp with the best he can do. Just a guess, nothing to base it on. And certainly will never be verified one way or the other.
Millions of people, I’m sure.
One in particular comes to mind… but I guess we should avoid politics here.
Good choice, but one should realize most of those guys lie on cue.
LOL! The level to which a single human being with an orange complexion and goofy hair can engender such levels of monomaniacal obsession never ceases to amaze. TDS really should be part of the next revision of the DSM-V.
Rent free.
How do you know he didn’t mean Schumer, AOC, Gaetz or that ninny Cori Bush?
So many possible targets of that post.
Yeah leave FJB out of it, he’s got enough rot in da brain to sink a whole nation.
Boras is easy to hate. That’s because he does his job well. For those who hate Boras, are you against free agency? Do you think MLB should go back to the days before Curt Flood?
The whole notion of free agency is predicated on there being a fundamental adversarial relationship between labor and ownership and a state of relative power equilibrium between the two negotiating parties. Free markets and corporate structuring are based in large measure on adversarial relationships … checks and balances and all that. (The alleged lack of an adversarial relationship is at the root of the Delaware judgement against Elon Musk’s compensation package vis a vis the Tesla board. I say “alleged” b/c politics is a part of it, too).
Boras is there to use leverage to negotiate the best contract for his clients. He’s hard. He’s shrewd. He’s smart. He’s effective. I don’t like him because I’d like the Dodgers to have stars like Seager on team friendly deals, and a part of me thinks that Seager would’ve been happier in LA at a slightly cheaper contract – and that Boras is more focused on his bottom line rather than what’s ultimately best for the player – but I can’t argue that he’s one of the best negotiators for his clients.
He does not have a monopoly on clients, as Jeff thoroughly explained. Monopolies are bad … checks and balances and all that. Collective ownership having a non-negotiable ownership over a player’s services is a kind of monopoly.
At the same time, I read someone comment here that there will be accusations of collusion over the less-than-huge contracts for a few high profile Boras clients. There shouldn’t be, IMO. If Boras is so good at using leverage to sign players to contracts that hurt teams, then teams should be able to say no. If he can game the system, then ownership pushback is one mechanism to elicit a correction.
BTW, Mark apparently got in another row with someone here and re-started his blog. Did I miss something?
Boras is who he is. You can’t blame the guy for playing by the rules. That being said, you cannot blame GM’s and execs who refuse to bargain with him. He has used the Dodgers in the past to drive up his clients’ prices. He obviously did it with Zack Greinke. He does not have the most clients, but he does have some of the more expensive. I wonder with Bellinger if Cody did not push that deal. You look at the remaining A-list free agents and you have to know, none of them are going to get what Boras was originally asking.
How did Lux look at SS yesterday?
I do not remember a single ball being hit to him. Might be wrong, but I did not see any hit his way. Cubs have not made Bellinger’s signing official yet, working on a trade to make roster space. Kike is officially on the roster and assigned # 8 like he had last year.
Good question, how did Lux look? His delayed debut at SS, day after day, has to be disconcerting to the team. He had such a big injury, those things can take more than a year to actually rehab. It’s the strength factor of that joint that takes so long to return. I hope he is good, but we may be seeing another Rojas year at SS (I have no problem with that, we certainly don’t need to rely on Rojas’ bat to be a winning team). Just don’t put Rojas at SS on the days that “Couldn’t Hit the Side of a” Barnes in the lineup. You can’t convince me that there isn’t any catcher available that wouldn’t be an upgrade from Barnes.
Barnes is only tolerable if he plays once a week. Only 25-30 games a year. It is hard to believe the Dodgers can’t find or don’t want to pursue an upgrade.
He has his moments. And we only see him a few innings a year. What he brings to the clubhouse and to that staff may overshadow his stats. I’ve heard he’s the baddest dude on that team so he may be an out of the spotlight leader.
I have more tolerance for Austin Barnes than anyone, and I fully acknowledge that I am in huge minority. My son was a hit first catcher (some say only in lieu of first), and did not get a real chance to catch at the MLB level. He would be the first to say he was not a good catcher. He was a hitter. He was not going to get a chance to navigate a pitcher like Pedro Martinez or Curt Schilling or Tim Wakefield or Bronson Arroyo or Derek Lowe at a sustained level at MLB. Those five pitchers started 157 of the 162 games in 2004. Boston was going to live with Jason Varitek and Doug Mirabelli. They signed Sandy Martinez at the end of the season to be the emergency playoff catcher. If Boston believed my son could catch one of those starters in a playoff game, they would not have signed Sandy Martinez.
OTOH, Barnes is loved by his pitchers. He controls the game. If you were to ask the pitchers, I am more than confident that they would take Austin Barnes over Hunter Feduccia. Barnes was a fantastic hitter as a MiLB catcher. Not so much as he became a backup catcher at the MLB level. It is not easy coming off the bench one day a week to catch and hit.
It is basically a brand new rotation. IMO, it would be much better to have a catcher who understands how the Dodgers set up hitters, how the Dodgers want their pitchers to approach the game, what pitch is best to call in whatever situation. The Dodgers have more than enough offense to offset Barnes as long as he does what he does best, and that is to control the pitching when Smith is not in there. There were maybe a handful of backup catchers who hit significantly better than Barnes. But it is doubtful that they could manage the LAD pitchers better.
Someone said that Barnes should never bat 4th in a game. IT IS SPRING TRAINING. The idea is to get Barnes his 3 ABs and make a defensive change. That happens sooner when he bats higher up in the order.
I said at the conclusion of last season that if the Dodgers were to make a change at backup catcher, I would be fine with that. I am not all that certain that the Dodgers believe they have a better option than Barnes. If AF believed that Feduccia was a better backup catcher (not hitter) than Barnes, he would be the backup catcher. IMO, Barnes’ contract was supposed to coincide with Diego Cartaya being ready for MLB. But once the season starts, there should be no changes at catcher unless there is an injury.
Victor Caratini would have been a fantastic backup catcher. But he signed with Houston for 2 years and $12MM. Barnes has one year guaranteed at $3.5MM and one option year at $3.5MM with no buyout. Jorge Alfaro signed a MiLB deal with the Cubs, and he hit demonstrably less than Barnes. Austin Hedges is no longer considered the top catching prospect in MLB. Instead he is a no-hit great defense catcher who signed for $4MM to be backup for Cleveland.
I think there is more to worry about with Miguel Vargas than there is with Barnes.
I fully agree with all of that.
When Barnes first joined the Dodgers as Grandal’s backup, he had some great days with the bat. His offense has really withered over the years. I was fine with Grandal leaving because Barnes seemed so good.
Dodgers really did well drafting Will Smith. I’ve mentioned this before, but if you look at his draft class, he has outperformed every other first-rounder chosen ahead of him, a group that includes Lux. (The Dodgers 2016 Dodgers draft vintage was excellent, also bringing in Dustin May, Gonsolin, Mitch White, Luke Raley and other future major leaguers, down to Zach McKinstry in the 33rd round.)
Barnes should be OK this season, though I still hope a minor injury gives Feduccia a shot. Sure would be nice if Cartaya bounces back to star-catcher-of-the-future status.
Ohtani will be batting 2nd this year.
Yeah…
I hope Roberts offers a full explanation for the decision. There is no wrong answer, but Mookie-Freddie has been a great one-two punch, so I was hoping they’d just make it Mookie-Freddie-Shohei.
This arrangement does provide Shohei with a bit more protection and could spike his production a bit. Shawn Green’s team HR record is in jeopardy.
It looks like Jordan Montgomery is getting closer to signing with Boston. The only other team in consideration is LAA. I still do not think Monty is going to come across country. Boston makes too much sense. Boras is going to keep LAA interested to drive up the price, but I do not believe Monty wants to play in Anaheim.
Blake Snell and NYY are still talking. If Boras can get Boston to sign Montgomery, he is going to really pit NYY against LAA for Snell.
I still believe Zaidi is going to wait until the price comes way down for Chapman. There just does not seem to be all that much interest.
Just watching the game through Twitter/X lists, Grove didn’t seem to get into a groove.
Ohtani did.
👀 Blake Treinen’s first time on the Major League mound since 2022 starts with a pitch clock violation
From what I’ve read the ONLY 40 man players, aside from Yamamoto and Kike, who are yet to appear in a game are:
Paxton
Sheehan (soreness)
Graterol (soreness)
Kelly
Feyereisen
Cartaya
You can assume Kelly is suffering from some kind of soreness…………………because he always is.
I am very perplexed as to why Cartaya is not getting a look. Chris Okey is getting a goof look at catcher, and he seems to be up to the challenge.
Thus far in ST, it appears that the Dodgers NRI and MiLB camp players are better than the opponents NRI and MiLB camp players.
I think I read it’s all about backfield work on Cartaya’s swing.
I suppose they think that before they expose him to major league pitchers he needs to hit minor league pitching better.
A lot of games left. Maybe one of the group gets moved before too long.