After Gavin Lux’s beginning to the 2024 season, there has been some discussion as to just how long of a leash does Lux have. Dave Roberts said they wanted Lux to reach 150 PA before judging him.
As Blake Harris pointed out in a recent article, Gavin is at 133 PA now.
Per Harris, 193 players have at least 130 plate appearances this season. Here is where Lux ranks among them.
49 wRC+ (189th)
.194 AVG (183rd)
.248 OBP (187th)
.258 SLG (190th)
.506 OPS (190th)
.231 wOBA (189th)
.065 ISO (184th)
-0.2 fWAR (171st)
Blake went on to write:
“At some point, the Dodgers just have to realize he isn’t the player they were hoping for when they drafted him. He has nearly 1,200 plate appearances over the course of his career. He has a .688 OPS and 93 wRC+ during that stretch, both below league average.”
“Lux had a really good 72-game stretch in 2022 where he hit .310 and had an OPS of .865. He proved he could be a great hitter during those two months. Unfortunately that’s the only glimpse we’ve gotten from him.”
“Over his first 187 career games, Lux posted a 89 wRC+. He then had that amazing stretch where he had a 145 wRC+. Since that great run, he’s posted a 35 wRC+ over his last 50 games.”
“So you have a pretty underwhelming stretch of games. A really, really good stretch of games. And a really, really, really bad stretch of games. Which stretch do you prefer to believe?”
I have generally been supportive of Gavin. Is the team better with Miggy Ro in the infield and lineup? Probably so. But Lux is the youngster, and the number of legit infield prospects at OKC is marginal at best. So he is probably deserving of more than 150 PA to get things right. Go back and look at his swing when he was MiLB Player of the Year in 2019. He drove the ball all over the yard, with a lot of back spin. He lost 2020, and 2021 was somewhat of a lost year as well. But that compact swing was lost to one of excessive launch angle. I would like to believe that he is capable of hitting as he did in that 72 game stretch in 2022. Blake and I disagree on that point, as he is very skeptical that Gavin can replicate those numbers. Then again, when the team is winning, I have a tendency to side with the youth.
Gavin Lux aside, there has been the hyperbolic comments on the prowess of the LAD lineup. Early on, yes. Lately? Not so much.
I went back to the Miami series, 13 games.
- Mookie Betts – 53 PA, .292/.359/.479/.838, 5 BB/5K, 4 XBH
- Shohei Ohtani – 51 PA, .318/.412/.568/.980, 6 BB/11K, 5 XBH
- Freddie Freeman – 53 PA, .296/.396/.500/.896, 7BB/8K, 5 XBH
- Will Smith – 43 PA, .171/.326/.229/.554, 6BB/9K, 2 XBH
- Max Muncy – 37 PA, .094/.162/.219/.381, 3BB/13K, 5 XBH
- Teoscar Hernández – 51 PA, .229/.275/.479/.754, 3BB/13K, 5 XBH
- Andy Pages – 49 PA, .182/.245/.273/.518, 4BB/16K, 2 XBH
- Gavin Lux – 44 PA, .195/.250/.342/.592, 3BB/10K, 3 XBH
- Kiké Hernández – 24 PA, .200/.333/.350/.683, 4BB/6K, 1 XBH
- Miguel Rojas – 12 PA, .250/.250/.417/.667, BB/2K, 2 XBH
Every hitter other than Lux and Kiké are under their season numbers. And Lux and Kiké are right at their seasonal numbers. Smith and Muncy are well below their seasonal numbers.
In Monday’s game, other than the 3rd inning, the Dodgers hitters were once again shut down. But that one inning does show how lethal that lineup can be. 6 runs on 3 HRs, with Freddie’ grand slam the big hit in the game.
After Smith’s HR in the 3rd, the Dodgers could not get any on base against Slade Cecconi. The first runners to reach after the third inning came in the 8th.
Yoshi Yamamoto was excellent again. Anthony Banda pitched in back to back games in his first two games with LAD. He came out in the 7th with one inherited runner, and got out of the inning.
Elieser Hernandez tried to follow up his start against the Giants with a good relief appearance against Arizona. He allowed 2 HRs to let Arizona have some hope. But Daniel Hudson dashed those hopes with a shutdown 9th and his 3rd save.
With the win, and the Padres DH split with Atlanta, the Dodgers are 8.0 games ahead of San Diego, 9.0 games ahead of San Francisco, and 10.0 games ahead of Arizona. The Dodgers now have the 2nd best record in the NL and 3rd best in MLB. They are now on a 107 win pace.
Gavin Stone gets the ball for Tuesday’s game. A win on Tuesday give the Dodgers another series win. That will be 8 out of the last 9. The Dodgers are 14-4 in May and 20-6 in their last 26 games (9 series). Philadelphia is 14-3 in May and also 20-6 in their last 26 games.
The Dodgers will first play the Phillies in Philadelphia on July 9-11, and at home in August 5-7.
LAD ACL 8 – White Sox ACL 5
- Joendry Vargas – 2-5, 1 run
- Alexander Albertus – 2-3, 1BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (3)
- Jose Meza – 2-4, 2 runs. 3 RBI, triple (1)
- HR – Mairoshendrick Martinus (2)
- Double – Victor Rodrigues (1)
Box Score
It’s hard to imagine the Dodgers not taking the division once again. But we all know the playoffs are the beginning of the real season, the one that players live and dream about and lead to something very special, the ring. Our team has decidedly fallen short in spectacular ways for the last 2 seasons. While I don’t expect a repeat, I can’t imagine it happening with this lineup of talent both pitching and batting, there are some holes that remind us of our liabilities. Our inability to create a solid bottom of our batting order, 3 or 4 questionable players, both in defense and offense, and a pitching staff which has succumbed to injuries for the last 3 years. We went out and bought new pitchers because all of our homegrown ones couldn’t hack a full season of playing at this level. We know we can score with the best of teams so what can hurt us? Come the playoffs, we should know if our FO have addressed our problems. Choking, BP, and injury have been the main obstacles. Since the manager doesn’t play, we have to assume he must motivate and outsmart the opposition. Has he done his job the last 2 years or longer? Has the farm produced the players that we need to achieve dominance? I know the FO buys dominance but haven’t seen it produce it from the farm consistently. Could no one see the accident waiting to happen with Urias all these years? All of this has left me wondering about our team and its ability to compete when it counts.
Again I have to repeat what I see and what I believe….Lux and Pages will disappoint as the season wears on and you really don’t want them in the playoffs. Kike is fine…he has shown to be clutch in pressure but the two I named will wilt like a thirsty flower.
My solution….use our “hot prospects” who are probably more fluff, to acquire an OF who has proven to be reliable. That way we at least have 4 dependable OFs to be rotated (Kike included).
For now, platoon Rojas and Lux and if it were me, I’d move Betts to 2B on the days Rojas is playing. He is a magician out there, and I’m sure all our starting pitchers would agree.
What about Vargas you ask? What about him? Haven’t we seen enough of what he could do in the bigs? Nevertheless, I’m all about forgiveness so make this his final audition and if he doesn’t cut it, ship him out too at the trade deadline. As for Pages…I think he is another tease, another Outman….starts strong, then the word gets out how to pitch to him….then he becomes useless. But, I can agree to giving him more time to see which Pages will come forward…the one who was hot for those two weeks or the one we have seen cold and is now batting .256 and sinking fast.
Come on AF- do your thing- don’t wait until the deadline- get us a bona fide proven outfielder and don’t worry about the prospects you are giving up. No big deal,
Thanks for listening,
TM
Vargas on the bench, where he will spend a lot of time with Teo and Heyward in the lineup, makes no sense. Even when there was an opportunity for him last night Taylor got the call. He probably should be traded but what value does he have?
Outman OPS’d .550 in May and June last year then finished strong. Hopefully Pages will do the same. When it comes to rookies nothing surprises at this point. We’ve seen it all.
Lux. This team can afford to have patience with him. His swing appears loopy but as Jeff mentioned he was hitting it all over the yard a few years ago. I think he can do it again in time. How to turn rollover grounders into line drives to the gap? That is a question for the hitting instructors.
Elieser just needs to keep the ball away from center cut. The strike zone isn’t a bullseye. Up down in and out.
This team will obviously ride the top of the lineup all year. They can score 6-8 on any given night. The bottom of the order appear to be blind squirrels. With Taylor first off the bench It would appear they will easily OPS less than .700. What to do about that? Hope it gets better and trust the guys at the top will be there all year.
Can someone explain what’s going on in the outfield? A couple of days ago Pages and Vargas crash into each other. Teoscar talks to Pages afterwards about calling for the ball. Then last night Teoscar and Mookie both fail to call for a ball. Ball drops in for a single. Later a hit that should have runners on 1st and 2nd becomes 2nd and 3rd because of bad fielding and throws. Shades of the ‘62 Mets.
Pages does not appear to be as good an outfielder as Outman. Communication, reads, speed, take charge needs improvement. He is also a strikeout machine but has been better than outman. Neither inspire confidence in a playoff situation. If Toronto drops out of the race mb Kermaier could be had. If Lux would start hitting package him with others to get an of. Then, make Rojas the ss or 2nd basemen. Against playoff pitching our offense has to get better.
Jeff Dominique and I are in full agreement regarding Lux.
Where is Outman? Has he played yet for OK or is he in Glendale?
First off, I wanted to thank Jeff D for writing and maintaining this terrific Dodger blog. His extensive MiBL coverage adds to it’s excellence. I, also, enjoy other contributor(s) (Bear) and the other posters who add so much to the conversation.
The record for the Dodgers in turning their prospects into future, successful Dodgers is not that good. But, it’s still interesting to follow their progress. Hopefully, they can get a position player or two added to the starting lineup in the near future. Right now they Lux, Vargas, Pages, and possibly Outman as candidates. The pitching prospects have blossomed this season. It seems that their health has been the main hurdle in their progress and success. It will be exciting to watch how it all unfolds toward the end of the season.
Many here have been concerned/complained about the bottom three in the lineup during most of the season. I believe the FO felt good about the entire lineup to start the season. Their assumptions could have been that the Heyward/Kiki/ Taylor RF platoon would provide decent production offensively as well solid defense. With Lux they assumed (hoped) that he would continue and improve on his late ’22 offense and acclimate to at least a average SS. And, CF would continue to be manned by James Outman and he would surely grow offensively from his second half of ’23 results. With what they had in the top six hitters and the above players why wouldn’t the FO be very optimistic?
Well, things went south right from the get go.Lux was pulled off SS even before the season stated. Heyward is injured after four games and out for a couple of months. The platoon partners started out awful, especially, CT3. Outman was a close second to CT3 with another miserable start. Both had big issues making contact. Complete non factors. Gavin Lux rounded out the last of the poor offense results. I had high hopes for Gavin in ’22 with how he ended the season. Even though many were disappointed with expecting a super star because he had been a MiLB player of the year a couple of years earlier. I was happy if he continued what he was doing offensively while playing solid 2B. You know, being a everyday solid player. I didn’t care about the HR’s. So, color me very disappointed right now. I hope he can turns things around soon or he may not be with the team much longer. But, maybe he’ll get the James Outman treatment and a long leash like discussed above. With Heyward back it should lengthen the lineup a bit more. Kiki has picked it up somewhat. And, CT3? How does this happen to such a athletic player? I see no fixing this.
In the big picture though the Dodgers are going to run away with the division again. The big question is the status of the starting pitching and the BP going into the postseason. If most are healthy then it could lead to a dominating postseason and a World Series victory. And, the concern about the bottom three hitters will be long forgotten.
Carry on.
TM
A couple of weeks ago I wrote a similar post to the ones posted yesterday and today by yourself., and I am in total agreement.
IIt is because we get to pick so low in the draft every year that we never get the cream of the crop, the can’t miss elite prospects.and why we do such a great job of player development. It’s as much out of necessity as anything else.
So the only way to get the elites is through trade or Free Agency. Mookie and Glasnow by trade and extensions and Freddie, Yamamoto and Shoehei by Free Agency.
I was against signing Ohtani for fear of tying all those dollars to one player (broken already), would restrict us going forward, but the whole deferring business has changed that. Didn’t Shoehei say that he’s deferring it to allow AF to be in on the big names?
i suggested Sheehan (before I knew of the TJ), Grove, Lux and Vargas for Abram’s of Washington. We need a long term SS and he is gonna be a stud. Throw whoever at it, but we will not regret signing him, snd he’s cheap. Then extend him.
In the winter sign Soto. Yeah it’s gonna be expensive but it seems to me that everyone else is more worried about the money than the people who matter!
I am beating a dead horse mb. Looking forward our offense has to improve particularly with runners in scoring position. It was embarrassing watching Kiki try to bunt the other night. A novice knows u have to get on top of the ball. Barnes is the only one capable of bunting but I hope with the game on the line he is not in there to do it. But kike might be but I just don’t think we have anyone who can execute a bunt in a high leverage situation.
so how about just not striking out. Betts is the best at working the count with Ohtani probably second. We have to get Freeman having good at bats. He is capable as is smith. After that, Hernandez and Muncy you would hope could have a good at bat but too often strike out. They can do damage on mistakes and they will be in there so the rest have to be disciplined and make contact. Pages, outman, lux, Taylor, are strikeout candidates. Kike vs righties not good, Rojas mb. Vargas don’t know but doesn’t look like he will get a chance. For the playoffs we need a solid hitter who can make contact. Pitching, defense, bullpen barring injury will be playoff ready. Offense no
I ponder the likelihood that Outman was sent down for only a couple of weeks to clear his head and to give Taylor 15 more days to show enough to stay a Dodger. Sometimes I also ponder what I would buy if I won a big lottery payout. After yesterday’s round, I pondered why I chased a golf ball around.
I have consistently preferred combining players in their primes with players working toward their primes as opposed with players past their primes. An example would be Outman and Lux mixed in with Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, and Smith and keeping the likes of Heyward and Rojas as subs with subs not to be synonymous with platoon players.
Betts will become a better shortstop and should stay at short.
I’ll take Royce Lewis over Muncy every time.
SS Betts
LF Ohtani
1B Freeman
C Smith
DH Pederson/Kike’
3B Lewis
CF Outman
RF Pages
2B Lux
I see Pages went 0-4 again last night in our 7-3 loss. He is now below .250. If he continues to play against all pitchers, he should be under .200 very soon. Probably joining Outman too. And the same old problem continues in the outfield. You just can’t count on a “hot young prospect” to be the solution to the problem.
Come on AF….due your due diligence. For starters, I hear that Chazz kid in Miami is available. What do you think?
The point of this article seems to have gone slightly off-topic in the comments. Jeff was originally talking about Lux, and how much rope the Dodgers should give him, which IMO should run out.
Lux has been incredibly disappointing. He’s had over 5 years to prove himself and done little. Lux has the same profile as VArgas, weak hitting utility infielders with no power. The Dodgers can’t keep starting these auto outs any longer, (Lux, Taylor, Kike, Vargas) (Barnes too of course, but he’s the backup catcher) Don’t shoot me Jeff lol.
How much more of Lux do we need to see here? He’s one of the most unproductive hitters in MLB. Why in the world do the Dodgers need to continue to start him? To flagulate Friedman’s ego? To flagulate his fan’s ego? The prospect gurus like Keith Law, who got it wrong with Lux?
Better off putting Rojas at short, (Ha Jeff you win!) and moving Mookie to second, or you could even put Muncy there, move Mookie back to right, and have someone else, like Kike play third moving forward.