The days of the 4-man rotation are gone…long gone. Gone are the days of the 300 IP/year pitcher. No longer do starters ease into the start to hold something back. Now it is throw as hard as you can for as long as you can. Complete games. What are those?
The game has changed, but perhaps nothing has changed as much as pitching. As a group, pitchers are bigger, stronger, and more athletic, and yet you cannot tell by the IP and CG metrics. More inclusively, wins and losses are no longer a valued metric. They are still reported, but certainly not truly valued.
Last year, 4 pitchers reached at least 200 IP.
- Logan Gilbert (SEA) – 208.2 IP
- Seth Lugo (KC) – 206.2 IP
- Logan Webb (SFG) – 204.2 IP
- Zack Wheeler (PHI) – 200.0 IP
Since 2021, only 5 pitchers have reached 200 IP twice: Zack Wheeler (2021, 2024), Sandy Alcantara (2021, 2022), Miles Mikolas (2022, 2023), Logan Webb (2023, 2024), Gerrit Cole (2022, 2023).
To qualify for the ERA title, a pitcher must pitch at least one inning in each scheduled league game. If a pitcher reaches 162 IP, he is considered qualified.
Last year 58 pitchers qualified for ERA title. 5 MLB teams did not have a single pitcher who qualified for the ERA crown…Dodgers, Tampa Bay, CWS, Miami, Cincinnati. This was an improvement over the previous three years.
In 2023, 44 pitchers qualified and 7 teams (including the Dodgers) did not have a qualified starter.
In 2022, 45 pitchers qualified and again 7 teams did not qualify. This was the last year the Dodgers had a pitcher considered qualified…Julio Urías and Tyler Anderson.
After the Covid 2020 season, we should have expected the number of pitchers to complete at least 162 IP to be minimal. In 2021, only 39 pitchers qualified, and 9 teams did not have a single qualified pitcher – the Rays, Orioles, Twins, Indians, Royals, Tigers, Angels, Pirates, and Diamondbacks. Walker Buehler and Julio Urías both qualified for LAD. The 207.2 IP by Buehler could very well have sealed his fate with a second UCL tear and resultant Tommy John surgery in 2022.
Walker actually started to go south in September 2021. For his first 27 games through August, Buehler pitched 176.0 innings, and compiled a 2.05 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 183 K v 44 BB, and .548 OPS against. Certainly well on his way to serious CY consideration.
In September, Buehler pitched 31.2 innings in 6 starts and compiled a 4.83 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 29 K v 9 BB, and a .780 OPS against.
Compounded, Buehler was not effective at all in the post season. He had 4 starts (6.1 IP, 4.1 IP, 3.2 IP, 4.0 IP), with a 4.91 ERA and 4.81 FIP. He had to start NLCS Game 6 against Atlanta on 3 days rest, because Max Scherzer came down with “arm fatigue”. Buehler allowed 4 runs (all earned) on 7 hits and 3 walks in his 4.0 IP. I think that was the proverbial nail in the coffin.
The Dodgers lost their Ace and workhorse, and have backed off pushing pitchers since then. Admittedly, not always successful.
For 2024, the Dodgers had two pitchers reach at least 100 IP…Gavin Stone (140.1) and Tyler Glasnow (134.0) Neither pitcher reached the playoffs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was next in line with 90 IP. James Paxton was 4th with 89.1 IP. That is four years in a row whereby the LAD rotation was limited. And yet they finally reached and won the WS. Thank you to the offense and bullpen.
Last year the Dodgers had 17 different starting pitchers. That was made up of 12 SP and 5 bullpen openers (10 games). See chart below on the Dodgers starting pitchers for the season.
Actual Starts by Starting Pitchers | |||||
| Rk | Player | Age | GS | GS IP | IP/GS |
| 1 | Gavin Stone | 25 | 25 | 140.1 | 5.60 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 30 | 22 | 134.0 | 6.09 |
| 3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 25 | 18 | 90.0 | 5.00 |
| 4 | James Paxton* | 35 | 18 | 89.1 | 4.95 |
| 5 | Walker Buehler | 29 | 16 | 75.1 | 4.69 |
| 6 | Bobby Miller | 25 | 13 | 56.0 | 4.31 |
| 7 | Landon Knack | 26 | 12 | 56.2 | 4.68 |
| 8 | Jack Flaherty | 28 | 10 | 55.1 | 5.51 |
| 9 | Justin Wrobleski* | 23 | 6 | 30.1 | 5.02 |
| 10 | Clayton Kershaw* | 36 | 7 | 30.0 | 4.29 |
| 11 | River Ryan | 25 | 4 | 20.1 | 5.03 |
| 12 | Elieser Hernandez | 29 | 1 | 6.0 | 6.00 |
| Totals | 152 | 781.8 | |||
Starts by Bullpen Game Openers | |||||
| Rk | Player | Age | GS | GS IP | IP/GS |
| 1 | Ryan Brasier | 36 | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00 |
| 2 | Anthony Banda* | 30 | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00 |
| 3 | Michael Grove | 27 | 2 | 3.0 | 1.50 |
| 4 | Brent Honeywell Jr. | 29 | 1 | 3.0 | 3.00 |
| 5 | Kyle Hurt | 26 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.00 |
| Totals | 10 | 14.0 | |||
| Team Totals | 162 | 795.8 | |||
| Total IP for Season | 1,445.2 | ||||
| Total IP by Starters | 795.8 | 55.07% | |||
| Total IP by Relievers | 649.4 | 44.93% | |||
I am not nearly as concerned how many SP actually qualify for the ERA title. There are multiple ways to grab the crown, and the Dodgers did so with multiple bullpen games in the postseason. Certainly not as it should be drawn up, but it worked.
I can easily see these following 14 SP this year:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Blake Snell
- Tyler Glasnow
- Tony Gonsolin
- Roki Sasaki
- Shohei Ohtani
- Dustin May
- Bobby Miller
- Clayton Kershaw
- Landon Knack
- Justin Wrobleski
- Ben Casparius
- Nick Frasso
- Emmet Sheehan
I do not see the need for a 6-man rotation until May when Shohei Ohtani can join the rotation. It has been suggested that Blake Snell wants to pitch on a “normal” 5-man rotation basis this year, and that Roberts seems willing to grant it.
In a 6-man rotation, starters can reach 27 starts. With an average of 5.5 IP per start:
- 27 starts – 148.5 IP
- 26 starts – 143 IP
- 25 starts – 137.5 IP
- 24 starts – 132 IP
- 23 starts – 126.5 IP
- 22 starts – 121 IP
- 21 starts – 115.5 IP
- 20 starts – 110 IP
I can envision Blake Snell reaching 160+ IP, Glasnow (with his mechanic change) reaching 140+ IP, Yamamoto reaching 130+ IP, Sasaki reaching 110+ IP, Ohtani reaching 100, and Gonsolin and Kershaw reaching 80+ IP.
Obviously this is all speculative. Almost every rotation will suffer at least one significant injury. Maybe the 6-man rotation will curtail injuries…maybe not. Of course there are those who do not believe that the Dodgers have any chance of having 5 pitchers reach 100. For those of us who disagree, we will have to wait until the end of September to know for sure.
Regardless, I discount any idea that the Dodgers chances of reaching and winning back to back WS championships will be hindered if no pitcher reaches 150 IP. The Dodgers won the championship last year, and this year’s rotation is deeper and the bullpen better. Now if the Dodger hitters do not freeze up, especially WRISP.
At what point will the 162 inning requirement be reduced for Cy Young consideration?
Probably in a couple of years. Things have been changing rapidly in the league.
100 soon…..triple digits only required. You heard it here first…on LADodger Chronicles….
Gasoline 29 cents a gallon, minimum wage 1.25, bread 33 cents a loaf, eggs 35 cents a dozen, hamburger coke and fries less than a buck, a brand new Cadillac El Dorado $6500, a home cost $21,000, Sandy Koufax 27 complete games.1965. There are those of us who lived to see all of this. In the Fall of 1965 I gained 191 yards rushing against Azusa. I’m certain nobody here remembers that.
Now? The times they are a changing. Gas is $5 a gallon here, homes cost $400,000 (a million here) I don’t rush at all anymore and if you want eggs get yourself a chicken
And where am I going with all of this? I believe it’s time MLB followed NPB’s lead and throw starting pitchers once a week. There are 26 weeks in the MLB season. Giving every starter one week off that is a maximum of 25 starts per pitcher and with a goal of 6 innings per start (can’t believe I’m saying that) that’s a total of 150 innings per year. Knowing full well it’s likely none of the guys will do that I’ll jump out and say the leader in innings pitched on the Dodgers will have 148 innings pitched. And who will that be? Snell or Yamamoto.
Immediately after posting this I wanted to make a few edits and wasn’t allowed to.
Oh well. On with my day. Hope I won’t need any edits with it.
It wasn’t bad.
Thanks.
You should have been able to edit.
But I wasn’t. Early morning site gaffe?
Whatever. Yes, the point was made. And to that point I’ll say this once again, ALL starters pitch once a week. Even those who say they don’t want to (Snell). The Japanese pitchers, half our 6 man staff, are used to that schedule. I think it wise not to ask them to change that routine.
We have the depth to do it. Anyone care to comment on this suggestion?
Jeff will look into it. On my screen I see the edit button after I post.
Would you go with a 7 man rotation and have the weakest link skipped over when 7 games in a row are not played? That would mostly be a 6 man rotation.
I remain intrigued with the concept of pairing starters. The opener goes 5 innings and the closer goes 4 innings with relief pitchers bridging any gap between the pair should the opener not make it through 5 and relievers taking over in the 11th allowing the second opener to go 5 should the game go extra innings.
May/Gonsolin
Snell/Miller
Kershaw/Roki
Ohtani/Glasnow
Yamamoto/Miller
Okay, probably not.
Yeah, probably not. But I do think the team will end up with a 10 man rotation by the end of the year. The 10 being those you mentioned above and maybe even the occasional Opener. There’s good reason they have this many signed.
Bum, I LOVE this idea…..works for me and should keep arms strong. Great suggestion….make sure you pass it on to the powers to be. I’m not sure anyone else has considered this.
I have put in a ticket for this issue to be reviewed. I will let you know as soon as I have heard. The edit function should not have changed.
Can someone besides Bear or myself try to edit a post and let me know whether you have an issue as well? I want to make sure that our administrator status is not what gives us the ability to edit
I can edit.
Yep, it works.
Thank you!!
Badger if you are reading this, can you try again?
This morning I immediately got the red prompt saying it was too late to edit. That typically happens after 5 minutes. I’m sure it’s fine now.
Sandy also had 27 complete games in 66. More than Kersh has thrown in his entire career. Yep, different era. Gas was 13 cents on post. Most items in the commissary were very cheap.
Sandy is the greatest. He’s also the worst poster in the history of TBLA.
Since there is a time limit to edit after a comment is posted maybe you used all of your allotted time on your original comment. 😀
Renewed my MLB subscription this morning. Got 50 bucks off because I am a vet. Got the all-teams option this time instead of just the Dodgers so I can scout the opposition a little better. Walking a lot better now. Used a cane yesterday instead of a walker. I also read where Tony Gonsolin is really chomping at the bit to get started.
I haven’t read that anywhere, but how could it not be true.
I did see, via Plunkett, that Roberts said the final rotation spot is indeed between:
Miller, May and Gonsolin. ($$$$)
I still appreciate Gonsolin for gutting it out for the team before succumbing to his injury.
It was on the google news feed. They usually do not stay up long.
AF pays attention to Jeff.
Thank you Jeff, good read. The idea of having to use 14 different starters is a scary thought. Is it because of such a fragile staff with lots of injury history. Who will be available once playoffs start is what intrigues me. Snell and Yamamoto have best chance in my opinion and they both spent time on IL last season. Wouldn’t it be nice if none required TJ for a change
I’m a little concerned about options.
Not many in the ‘pen. There’s some at the back end of the rotation, but not a lot. Could hamper things, unless there’s a preponderance of nagging injuries leading to IR stints, which the league frowns on.
They have a few arms at AAA that have some MLB experience, including Gallegos and Garcia, who at times have been very good in the majors.
Not sure how this relates to the post it’s replying to, but it is correct
Bofa
Bank of America?
Yankees moving former Dodger draft pick Clayton Beeter to the pen. Beeter has been a starter in 83 of his 92 games in the minors. Beeter was traded to the Yankees for Joey Gallo. Gallo just signed a minor league deal with the White Sox.
All four LAD pitchers drafted in 2020 have reached MLB: Bobby Miller (1), Landon Knack (2), Clayton Beeter (2 comp balance), and Gavin Stone (5). Only catcher Carson Taylor (4) and OF Jake Vogel (3) have failed to reach MLB. Taylor is with Philadelphia after being picked up in MiLB Rule 5 draft after 2023. He has reached AAA, so he could crack a MLB roster at some point. Jake Vogel cannot hit his way out of A+. Another Jeren Kendall type bust?
What a great draft the Dodgers had in 2020.
Nice draft!
Stone was the 4th pitcher taken–but so far the best.
As Jeff so accurately showed, the Dodgers used 17 starting pitchers in 2024.
In 2024, the LA Dodgers saw 40 different pitchers used in games, by my count, which was tied for second most in the MLB.
As mentioned, Stone led the Dodgers in innings with 140 on 25 starts and will miss 2025 with shoulder surgery. Glasnow was next with 22 starts and 134 innings. He got elbow tendonitis.
Nobody else got to 100 innings.
Dodgers used 36 pitchers in 2023 and 40 in 2024.
Currently,I see 8 health starting MLB pitchers in camp with Ohtani and Kershaw hopefully making it 10, at some point.
I count 13 relief pitchers with Graterol, Phillips, and Kopech due back at some point, making the total 16.
That’s 26 pitchers. Again, we used 40 and 39, the last 2 seasons.
So while many are feeling fat and loaded with pitchers, we may not unless this trend is broken.
Remember a primary mission for this off-season was to explore ways to reduce injuries. Have we done that? What changes will we see? Will we see a 6 man rotation after April, maxing out at 27 starts and 150 innings, as Jeff mentioned?
I have suggested changes that included a 6 man rotation and also pitching once a week, with more throwing and physical fitness training between starts and less actual pitching on incline. I’m still a proponent of building up arm strength over the season. I’d love to see a decrease in Max Velo and Spin on every pitch but that will never happen.
My thoughts are very similar to Badger’s, when he states “I believe it’s time MLB followed NPB’s lead and throw starting pitchers once a week. There are 26 weeks in the MLB season. Giving every starter one week off that is a maximum of 25 starts per pitcher and with a goal of 6 innings per start (can’t believe I’m saying that) that’s a total of 150 innings per year.”
So, I wonder what changes we will actually see? Are we going to actually try to implement something new after all the talk and “research” or are we going to use 40 pitchers again and continue to call it “BAD LUCK”?
Great stuff Jeff. Thanks again to you and Bear for all you do.
Dodgers just signed Eddie Rosario to a minor league contract per MLBTR.
Eddie was a one-man wrecking crew in the NLCS with Atlanta. In 28 PA, Eddie hit .560/607/1.040/1.647 to beat the Dodgers. 3 HR and 9 RBI, With a .579 BAbip, he got a hit nearly every time he put the ball in play.
Rosario is another case of a very hot and very cold hitter. Any thoughts of Ryan Ward getting a chance with the Dodgers has seemingly vanished. Michael Chavis is also capable of playing corner OF positions. Just more depth where the Dodgers are currently very exposed. Before Rosario, the OKC OF was set for at least one of Pages or Outman, plus Ryan Ward, Justin Dean, and John Rhodes. Rosario may not be the last MiLB OF the Dodgers will sign,
Didnt we have this guy once before….or was that a different Rosario?
That was Amed and they got him twice.
A Rosario by any other name . . .
Dave Roberts revealed that All-Star catcher Will Smith is dealing with an ankle injury and is a little behind schedule at spring training. Dalton Rushing and Hunter Feduccia should get a lot of opportunities early on in ST.
Excellent for both of these catchers. I can’t wait to see both.
To hear Snell say on mlb network that throwing a pen in front of Kerse in Dodger blue was one of greatest things in his career is quite uplifting and says a lot about this organization. I honestly feel blessed growing up a Dodger fan, listening to Vin with all else that goes with it. And now what looks like could be one of if not the best team ever assembled. How spoiled have we become when making playoffs is not even in question anymore. Just a matter of how many championships can be achieved. It’s good to be a Dodger fan
Yes, it is and I still see a lot of sour grapes from fans of other teams claiming LA is ruining baseball.
Poor Hal! His daddy wouldn’t be whining, he’d be signing checks!
Theres plenty of ways great management can put a winning team on the field capable of winning it all without spending mega money. I tell them fans, quit crying about how Dodgers play it brilliantly within the rules and cry at their teams management to do a much better job
It’s possible, but, sorry, it’s just not likely.
Look around man, money rules. As has been said from numerous sources – no matter the question, the answer is money. And the Dodgers have it. Lots of it. Lucky us.
Look at the past ten years of World Series winners. A bunch of them weren’t the biggest spenders
I see one. Kansas City in 2015.
The teams known as big spenders both NY teams, plus Boston and LA. Which only Boston and LA are in that group. I don’t question theres very small market teams at a big disadvantage, of which we can’t be blamed for that. Only saying don’t have to be a mega spender to win rings. Old saying can’t buy a championship almost always rings true. Even though we’re by far biggest spenders this year only have a 25% chance at the championship, according to the odds. Bottom line for me Badger is I don’t feel guilty was raised a Dodger fan and that we got best run organization probably in all of sports. Also don’t care what other teams and their fans think. I’ll hand them a beer to cry in if they need one
Let’s not forget Badger, that it wasn’t all that long ago we had an owner talking bankruptcy and wondering if it was even possible making playoffs. So now we have great owners and management should worry about the sour grapes of other fans. Think not
I don’t feel at all guilty. I feel lucky.
Yeah, I remember the McCourt years. How could anyone forget them. We no longer have an impecunious owner. The Dodgers are now swimming in money. Yippee. That said, I do feel for the fans of teams that don’t stand a chance. That’s just part of how I’m wired.
That’s awesome. I feel bad for the very few too. Should I feel guilty that we’re run so well, which has created the money to spend that other teams haven’t. Go around thinking my team is ruining baseball. How could I enjoy this beautiful game so much if I did. How many teams actually don’t stand a chance if only they were managed real well, not to many, Oakland?
Maybe the Dodgers would have a lower payroll if they could draft top 5 rated youngsters.
As bad as McCourt was as an owner, I think the Dodgers made the playoffs 4 out of 8 seasons during his tenure. Only once in the 8 years, did the Dodgers win less than 80 games. And the year after he sold the team, the Dodgers won 86 games. This 8 year timeframe is not nearly as bad as current playoff droughts of Rockies, Pirates, and Angels who have gone 6, 9, and 10 years without a playoff appearance even with the expanded playoff format.
The so-called misery of the McCourt era is nothing like many small market teams currently endure.
A McCourt defender. Never seen one before.
But, what you say is true. During the embarrassing McCourt years the Dodgers weren’t as worse as the Rockies.
The Dodgers are lucky Ohtani chose to defer most of his salary, otherwise I don’t believe they would be spending this kind of money. Were lucky Ohtani chose to do that and we’re lucky the Dodgers have a great ownership group.
FF – if Ohtani hadn’t agreed to defer the money he wouldn’t be a Dodger.
Good news for Rushing. Hope he seizes the opportunities.
I read that while making only $2 million a year, Ohtani has a net worth of $85 million. He’s quite comfortable playing baseball for a living while looking at a retirement fund of a few hundred million.
If I read the details correctly the AAV of his contract is $46 million for 15 years. He will be paid $2 million a year until 2034. If that’s correct, the Dodgers will be paying him and the MLB tax long after he has retired. Terrific deal for the Dodgers, for a while anyway. Maybe someone with more accounting knowledge can explain how that actually works for the Dodgers starting in 2034.
I meant to say yesterday but forgot – great work on those charts above Jeff. They enumerate clearly what many of us have been trying to say – it takes a village of both starters AND relievers to eat up a season’s worth of innings. There are no 300 inning pitchers or a list 20 game winners, let alone 4 of them like the Orioles had in ‘71. That team had 4 starters, all of whom had 30 or more starts. Cuellar had 38, Palmer and Dobson had 37 and McNalley had 30. A few relievers had the other 16 games. What a staff. Just another thing we will never see again. Add it to the list
Mike Trout will address the media today after having a discussion with manager, Ron Washington. Angels trying to figure out the best way to keep Trout healthy. Pham officially a Pirate. Shelby Miller signed by the D-Backs.
Im really impressed with what I’ve seen of Snell so far. He really seems to be embracing this opportunity and seems genuinely happy to be wearing Dodger Blue.
He was also in Camp a week early plus the mentoring to Miller is impressive.
There must be an awful lot of players who secretly would love to be playing for the Dodgers.
Snell seems like one of them, and I loved the comment about CK watching his first BP being a highlight of his career! Arenado is definitely another.
Must also be very cool and very accommodating for Sasaki to have Ohtani and Yamamoto in the Locker Room, and it’s cool that Shohei is trying to speak more English. Wonder why he didn’t try harder in Anaheim??
Hoping Rushing gets a good look now Will is behind schedule.