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Is Cody Bellinger a $200MM Player?

I came across a Twitter post that had me saying to myself, this is why players want Scott Boras as their agent.  Cody Bellinger is looking for $200MM for his next deal.  There are reportedly 4 teams that will be in hot pursuit (hotter than the other teams):  NYY, Giants, Padres, and Cubs.  Of course that number was floated by Boras.  Might as well get used to the starting point before the bidding begins.  And of course I recognize and acknowledge that what he will be asking for will not necessarily be what he signs for, but how many big deals has he missed on?  I can think of three:  Mike Moustakas, 2018 JDM, and Carlos Correa.  Moustakas was oversold, but like Eric Hosmer he signed for a lot more than what most thought he would get.  Correa’s medicals stopped him from cashing in big time. And teams find it hard to pay DH’s $150MM-$175MM which is what Boras was shopping JDM for.

This winter he will get maximum contracts for Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, James Paxton, and Josh Bell.  Do not look for the Dodgers to make a serious run at any of them.  And the Dodgers do not have a prayer of extending Ryan Pepiot.  If Boras was Spencer Strider’s agent, he would not have been extended.  Nor would any of those other eight extensions Alex Anthopoulos negotiated. Atlanta does not have one Scott Boras agent.  I would not be surprised if that was a criterion that Braves management looks at.

The Dodgers had their franchise SS in Corey Seager, who will be getting serious consideration as the AL MVP.  Unfortunately, Scott Boras simply used the Dodgers to jack up the contract amount for Seager to sign with Texas.  The Dodgers have a team first criterion, and in my opinion, Scott Boras clients are not team first players.  They are not selfish.  They recognize that MLB is a business, and they have hired the best negotiator for themselves.  But it does make it hard to build a team around a Scott Boras client.

I know of one exception with a Boras client being more team focused than the individual: Steven Strasburg. He told Boras to get him signed with Washington, no matter what.  He did not want to play for any other team.  Contrast with Juan Soto.  Scott Boras turned down a 15 year $440MM deal for his client.  Max Scherzer would not talk extension.  After an apparent growing relationship between Boras and the Nationals, once Steven Strasburg announced his retirement, the Nats do not have a single Boras client.

Going through the agency database, it is remarkable the number of elite young players in his client rolodex who will be hitting FA in a few years.

After this year’s crop, he has Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, José Altuve, and Spencer Turnbull ready for 2025.

Two or more years:

  • Dylan Cease (2026)
  • Zac Gallen (2026)
  • Brendan Rodgers (2026)
  • José Urquidy (2026)
  • Alec Bohm (2027)
  • Jonathan India (2027)
  • Jesús Luzardo (2027)
  • Tarik Skubal (2027)
  • MacKenzie Gore (2028)
  • Matt Manning (2028)
  • Bryson Stott (2028)
  • Braxton Garrett (2029)
  • Gunnar Henderson (2029)
  • Josh Jung (2029)
  • Shea Langeliers (2029)
  • Royce Lewis (2029)
  • MJ Melendez (2029)
  • Ryan Pepiot (2029)
  • Spencer Torkelson (2029)

That is an impressive list of young clients.

Players hitting FA in 2028 are not even arbitration eligible until 2025.  Thus $$$ will not be a factor for low revenue producing teams, making the necessity to trade these players non-existent…except of course for a monster overpay.   I am certain that AF was not going to give CWS a bevy of top rated prospects for a player they will lose in 2.5 years.

Back to the question.  Will Belli get $200MM?  I would not count Boras out for getting him that contract.  NYY just might make Belli a very happy CF in pinstripes.

 

09-05-2023 – MiLB Game Summary Reports

 

Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Houston) 6 – OKC Dodgers 0

Mike Montgomery and Tanner Dodson each allowed 3 runs: Montgomery in 4.0 IP and Dodson in 1.0 IP.  John Rooney continued his surge over the last 10 games.  He pitched a scoreless 2.0 innings with 2 hits.  In 8 of his last 10 games, Rooney has not allowed a run.  Bryan Hudson pitched a scoreless 8th inning.

OKC had 4 hits including 2 doubles:  Jonny Deluca and Justin Yurchak.  Yurchak had a 2 hit game.

JD Martinez was making his first rehab game and went 0-4.

 

Box Score

 

 

Springfield Cardinals 9 – Tulsa Drillers 1

Kendall Williams had a quality start.  He allowed 3 runs in 6.0 IP.  Ben Harris and Jack Little were hit hard and allowed 6 runs in their 2.0 IP.

Tulsa had 6 hits.

 

Key Offensive Performances:

  • Austin Gauthier – 2-4, 1 run, triple (4)
  • Imanol Vargas – 2-4

 

Box Score

 

 

Great Lakes Loons 2 – West Michigan Whitecaps (Detroit) 1

21 year old RHP (20 baseball age) Peter Heubeck had his best game since early July.  In 5.0 IP he allowed 1 run on 3 hits.  A single, a fielders choice, and a run scoring single in the 1st.  He allowed only a single over the next 4.0 IP.  He did not allow a BB and registered 4 K.

Jared Karros piggybacked off Heubeck and completed 4.0 scoreless IP on 1 hit.  No BB and 2 K.

The opposing pitcher was Detroit’s 1st draft pick (#3 overall) in 2021.  Like Heubeck, Jackson Jobe is 21 with a baseball age of 20.  Jobe is #55 in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100.  He allowed 2 solo HRs for the Loons scores.  Dalton Rushing hit his 14th and Damon Keith hit his 11th.

The Loons had 4 hits with no Loon having more than 1.

 

Box Score

 

 

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 11 – Visalia Rawhide (DBacks) 2

20 year old RHP Christian Romero and 3 other pitchers combined for a 3-hit shutout.  Romero went the first 5.0 scoreless innings, allowing a single and double.  He did not surrender a walk and registered 6 K.

Jonathan Edwards, Garrett McDaniels, and Madison Jeffrey followed.  Combined they allowed 1 hit, 4 BB, 1 HBP, and 7 K.

RC had 11 hits including 3 HRs.  They scored 1 in the first and then put up 4 consecutive crooked numbers in the 3rd-6th inning to score 11 runs.  The biggest bomb was a grand slam by Jake Gelof.  That was his 2nd HR.  Gelof also hit his 7th double.

 

Key Offensive Performances:

  • Kendall George – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run, 2 RBI
  • Thayron Liranzo – 1-2, 2 BB, 4 runs, 2 RBI, HR (23)
  • Jake Gelof – 3-5, 1 run, 5 RBI, HR (2)
  • Joe Vetrano – 2-5, 1 run, 2 RBI, HR (2)
  • Luis Rodriguez – 2-4, 1 run

 

Box Score

 

 

 

 

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Oldbear48

Whether he is one or not, I don’t think 200 million will be that much of a stretch. Given his age and the way he has rebounded this season, my choice for comeback player of the year. I think he will sign with the Yankees. Going back to his dad’s team. RF fence in NY is a nice target for a pull hitter like Bellinger.

Bumsrap

If I were a GM I would love to see one more year before signing a long term contract. That would put me out of the running though.

SandyIsTheGreatest

Yeah, I’m with you.

Oldbear48

Kersh still having some issues with his shoulder.

Badger

88.4 mph four seamer. I wonder if he could use a skipped start or two.

I remain curious about the relationship of Boara$$ clients and winning. And not Charle Sheen’s “winning”, all Boras clients appear to get rich, but team Wins. Does the number of Boras clients on a team translate to more or less wins? I think I know the answer, but I haven’t researched it.

Article in the Times talking about what might happen to Urias. Apparently he hasn’t been charged yet. He will continue to be paid of course, any suspension handed out would include playoff games. Sad story, but of course not uncommon. Is the woman the same girlfriend from the previous encounter? She didn’t file charges.

Bellinger $200:million? Yeah, maybe. Won’t matter to the Dodgers.

Last edited 7 months ago by Badger
Dionysus

There’s something special happening on offense in Rancho.

Badger

“Kershaw is reduced. The Dodgers are reluctant to use Ryan Yarbrough in anything other than a swingman role. Ryan PepiotGavin StoneEmmet Sheehan and even potentially Michael Grove can fit into the mix, but each is a rookie, just like Miller.

The Dodgers have survived, and thrived, to this point. But the list of issues grows. Backup catcher Austin Barnes exited the game in the eighth inning Tuesday night after getting hit on the side of the head by Nick Fortes’ backswing. And Muncy may be hurt.

‘This is where we’re at’, Dave Roberts”.

Kinda sums it up.

Oldbear48

Muncy took BP yesterday and was feeling pretty good. A slight shoulder problem might actually help him cut down that swing some. Burger owns LA this year. 5 homers, .370 BA, and 8 driven in. There should be some sort of ruling on Urias by tomorrow which would be his next scheduled start. The charge of felony domestic violence causing corporal injuries to a party sound and is a lot different than last time when it was misdemeanor domestic battery. Julio is in deep doo doo.

Bumsrap

I look forward to watching Miller,Pepiot, Stone, and Sheehan as the playoff rotation. I like Grove and Lynn in the long relief role.

When is Deluca coming back?

SandyIsTheGreatest

There is no chance Lynn would be bumped to relief. Hell, he might start G1!

Bumsrap

Like I said!!!

Oldbear48

Next spring. No room on the roster for him. JD should be back by the weekend.

tedraymond

Yeah Badger, the long season and unexpected life issues are affecting the Dodgers right now. Especially with the pitching. The opening day rotation I believe was the following:
Kershaw
Urias
Gonsolin
May
Syndergaard

To have only one left in September is unbelievable. And Kershaw looks like he is still not right. How in the hell are the Dodgers going to be competitive in the playoffs with this pitching staff? It’s a damn shame considering how well the offense has performed this year.

Badger

“How in the hell are the Dodgers going to be competitive in the playoffs with this pitching staff?”

We slug the living sh*t out of the ball, that’s how.

Please excuse the graphic language

My crystal ball is clear, we don’t slug, we won’t win.

Score 8, hope and wait. Score 7, you may play 11. Score 6 you’ll take your licks. Score 5 and hope to stay alive. Score only 4, you know they’ll get more. I’m done.

tedraymond

Well, that seems simple enough. With playoff pitching it’s going to a tough strategy to accomplish. If it does happen what a great show to watch!

SandyIsTheGreatest

We have lost plenty with a full lineup of rested rotation members.

Embrace the chaos.

Scott Andes

How in the hell are the Dodgers going to be competitive in the playoffs with this pitching staff?”…..

They’re not. Hopefully Buehler can give them some sort of extra arm, but the Dodgers like most MLB teams have decided that starting pitching is not valuable anymore. Mix in all the injuries and well you and I both know what’s going to happen.

I’m sorry, I don’t want to give up on the team and they are very good even without pitching, but I just don’t think they have much of a chance to win this October. Not without a pitching staff.

tedraymond

Unfortunately, I agree with your last paragraph. It’s too bad.
With this opinion I’d prefer the Dodgers would not pitch Buehler until next year. It’s not worth the risk vs the small contribution he might add.

Badger

I agree about Buehler. But, if they feel they need him, and they probably do, expect to see him.

Jeff

I believe they will have to give Yarbrough some starts. Shit happened!

tedraymond

I happy to see Cody doing well. I guess the combination of healing from all his injuries and responding to his coaches he is having a nice year. I don’t know what he will get in free agency. Where does $200M from? I would think an AAV for a particular length might be more relevant. Cody will be 28 when he signs and turns 29 in July ’24. With his injury history how long of a contract does a team commit? Are his 2023 stats going to continue? If he had had a better year in 2022 and followed it up with the year he’s having now Cody would probably be looking at 7-8, $25M a year contract. But, there is a lot of uncertainty involved with his market value.

The Dodgers won’t be involved. I could see the Yankees paying top dollar for more offense while continuing to ignore their pitching staff. So many teams with dollars to spend don’t get it. It’s pitching, pitching, and more pitching that wins championships. Look at the Mets, Yankees, Angels, Padres for example. And, it’s not just in free agency. The drafting and development of pitching is not very good.
This is where the Dodgers excel. They have a plan and this year will be the beginning of a flood of pitching prospects to fill in the future pitching staff. In two or three years there will be some highly regarded position players joining a core of Betts, Freeman, Smith (hopefully), Lux, and Outman.

But, good luck to Cody. I hope he cashes in with free agency. I’m thinking he will be a Yankee come the Winter. He could hit 50-70 HRs and become the Hall of Fame player he has the talent to be.

Carry on.

SandyIsTheGreatest

Yankees make sense for him.

The one thing I’ve always said about his Cody is his defense makes him valuable day in and day out.

Unfortunately, he cratered so thoroughly offensively that we didn’t think he was worth the one-year risk.

I disagreed with it at the time but I understood it.

I still feel it was a mistake.

Badger

Pitching is boring to watch. The objective of every team is B.I.S. revenue. Only one team wins the championship, so, championships be damned, load up on those stars that are out there everyday for 162 and hope they are interesting enough to sell 35,000+ tickets. Nobody is better at this plan than the Dodgers.

Bobby

Today, I’ll say Beli won’t get over 200mil.

But, if he has a big October and proves he can do it when it matters? Then maybe

Bluto

I hope Bellinger gets all he can. How much that’ll be?

I have no clue at all, but if there are even just four (4) teams interested that sounds like a good market for maximizing value.

Badger

Oh he will get all he can. Won’t accept anything less.

OhioDodger

But he is so happy in Chicago. He even stated as much. Maybe he would take a lesser offer to stay with the Cubs if he likes it so much there. Hell, they saved his freaking career.

Bobby

he just homered again. Amazing.

SandyIsTheGreatest

The cubs are actually hot. I can’t believe it. Al Yellon is still a putz.

Badger

If I read it right the above says “will pitch for $15K”. Must be per inning. Per out? Per pitch?

Oldbear48

Just read that. He is already off of the roster which stands at 27.

Bluto

Roberts today:
– The Dodgers could expect Joe Kelly and Michael Grove to come off the IL during the next homestand. They’re viewing Grove as a reliever going forward.

– J.D. Martinez is expected to be activated on Friday in DC.

Austin Barnes cleared concussion protocol. Has a contusion on the side of his head but could catch tomorrow, Dave Roberts said.

Pepiot can start/take down bulk innings for Thursday, which would have been Urías’ start day.

Bumsrap

Not the first time Friedman has been bailed out by another team outbidding him.

Scott Andes

The Dodgers look pathetic now. They’re back to punting games again. They’ve basically given up. They really have no chance of winning the World Series this year.

They should take a look at what the Braves are doing and take lots of notes. Better change those philosphies and place priority on starting pitching.

Bumsrap

Ye of little faith

Dionysus

Perfect timing

Badger

This is hard to watch bb

Bluto

Dog days of summer indeed.

Bumsrap

Lynn is not the answer
He is a 3 inning pitcher

Last edited 7 months ago by Bumsrap
OhioDodger

Maybe an opener?

Badger

It feels like the staff is being worn down to a group of piggybackers. No matter how this pitching pie is sliced, this squad had better start slugging again and soon.

OhioDodger

Yep. Offense is going to have to carry us if we hope to do well in the playoffs.

Singing the Blue

Jeff, you’ve been most kind to point out that I wanted us to get Lynn at the deadline………..and I looked very good for awhile. But in fairness, I’ve got to stand up and take my lumps now. He looks just as bad, if not worse, than he did with the Sox.

I think we can assume we’ve now reached the low point in our season. Kershaw not right. Urias gone. Lynn started out well tonight but hit a brick wall. And I’m doubting at this point that we can depend on him for the playoffs.

It’s really beginning to look more and more like we’ll have a mostly rookie rotation in the post season. And whatever the case, it seems as though our starters won’t be going much more than 4-5 innings. That will put a heavy load on the bullpen.

If they add Grove in the coming week, at least we’ll have two guys (Grove and Yarbrough) who can go multiple innings, along with Sheehan and Stone if one or both don’t wind up having to start games.

As I said yesterday, remember this is supposed to be a reset year, sit back and enjoy whatever comes. It’s probably still more than we expected.

And one more thing, although we pretty much have the division wrapped up, if we continue to play this way, it’s not altogether impossible that the Central Division winner would catch us and we wouldn’t wind up with the first round bye. Our offense is a mess right now, but that won’t last, and we just need to get back on track within the next 7-10 days.

Bluto

Agree with most of this. That said I feel, Lynn will (can?) be a serviceable back of the rotation guy.

These games are meaningless.
But I kinda look forward to seeing the young arms in the post-season.

OhioDodger

Dodgers should think about using Lynndergaard as an opener. One time thru the order.

Jeff

No need, just look at his numbers. Plenty of other arms to rely on.

Jeff

Glad you see who Lynn is. Not anybody’s answer to pitching stability and should not be given time in our post season which will probably be a very short one.

OhioDodger

Is Cody Bellinger a $200MM Player?
I would not sign him for that. Mainly based on the length of the contract he will be seeking. He will need 8-10 years to get $200M. Contracts over 5 years are in general a bad idea.

OhioDodger

Dodgers strike out too much. 12 SO in 33 AB tonight. Not a recipe for success.

Oldbear48

Pepiot back on the roster, will start tomorrow’s game. Dodgers lose one game in the standings as the D-Backs win. Padres lose Sanchez and G. Man Choi to broken bones. Nick Ahmed DFA’d by the D-Backs ending his 10-year tenure as a D-Back. Randal Grichuk placed on waivers by the Angels.

Last edited 7 months ago by Oldbear48
OhioDodger

Well, so far not many of the deadline pick ups are working out for us or anyone else. Our additions did well initially, but have since come back to earth.

Badger

Lynn and Yarbrough can still be useful. Kiké has cooled, but could also help. Kelly might come back pitch some important innings. Wong isn’t needed.

It looks like the first string offense, the bullpen and a handful of rookie pitchers will have to carry the load into October. It might work.

Melvin

My feeling is that he is not a Marine. He is mentally weak.
On another note the FO has some work to do this winter

Last edited 7 months ago by Melvin

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