I was reading Houston Mitchell today and I came across the following:
“Which makes writing a newsletter twice a week during the regular season difficult at times. At no point should this newsletter become a rah-rah cheerleader. And at no point should it focus just on the negative.”
“But it’s hard to write a lot of negative things during the season about a team that consistently wins games. Every season there are holes on the team. This season it’s the lack of offense from Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger, and problems with injuries in the bullpen and rotation. And writing about that week after week after week is monotonous and beating a dead horse.”
I run into this issue every day. My mentor in this arena told me that he could come up with a column and write it in 30 minutes. He wasn’t wrong. Me, as most of you who have followed, know that I rely on my research. My two partners, Harold and Rob, are also research driven.
I have never been a Kool Aid drinker or Pollyanna writer about the Dodgers. I recognize the negatives. I have commented on them quite a bit. I would prefer to just write positive commentary as most LAD blogs focus on. But that is not who I am. If I see or read something that I may disagree with, I comment on it. That practice makes it easier for me to comments on your comments I have found that negative comments drive responses. And yet that is not why I make those types of comments. I do not follow the practice of making comments even if I do not believe them just to drive the comment count. I always believe what I write about.
I have found that I like the way Houston Mitchell approaches his articles as well. Maybe it is because I agree with much of what he says. For the last week or so, I have commented that this year’s team reminds me so much of the 2017 team. Okay the walk off wins are not there, but the dominance is very similar. Houston Mitchell said something very similar in his latest column…
“The only season since this newsletter began that I was convinced the Dodgers were the best team in baseball was 2017. And we all know what happened there.”
Which brings me to tonight’s columns. Houston Mitchell again wrote what I was thinking…
“The compulsive worrier in me sees Gonsolin have a poor outing in his last start, then sees him get lit up in the All-Star Game, and wonders if a serious regression is in store for the second half.”
For me, it almost looks like Tony Gonsolin has hit a wall. The number of swings and misses and chases that he got early in the season, he is not getting now. He does not appear to be attacking the strike zone as much. Almost like he is nibbling. Nibbling is tantamount to not believing in your stuff.
While many were already calling Tony the likely CY winner, there were some of us who were concerned that he was just pitching too many innings early in the season. He is now 40+ IP more than his high of 55.2 in 2021, and we have not hit 100 games yet. And he is not showing any indication that he is getting stronger.
First 16 games, 88.2 IP, 17 runs (16 earned) on 48 hits. In his last 2 games, 11.0 IP, 9 runs (all earned) on 13 hits. Counting the 1.0 All Star inning, he has allowed 4 HRs in 12.0 IP, and none of them were cheapies. I hope that it will not be a “serious regression” as Houston Mitchell stated, but he clearly is not the same pitcher. I can hear the apologists now as they say that there were a lot of bleeder lucky bounce hits. Maybe, but how many hard hit balls were turned into outs. They even out. Early in the season, those hits are outs. To his credit, he owned the seeing eye hits after the game.
He had 7 whiffs on 90 pitches last night. That is one of his lowest totals all season. In 18 starts, he has had less than 7 whiffs only once. He has been in double digits in 12 games. He just is not the same pre-July 7 Tony Gonsolin. He has not pitched in 12 days, so he certainly was not overworked over the last 2 weeks. Overworked over the season????
Okay, enough haranguing on Tony Gonsolin. While he was not efficient or effective, this game was lost because of the offense. The offense was 0-8 WRISP. Multiple times, a runner on 3B with less than 2 outs and could not score. The top 3 in the order was 2 for 13; the middle 3 were 2 for 12; the bottom 3 were 4 for 11. Gavin Lux 2-4, Cody Bellinger 0-4, and Trayce Thompson 2-3 with a BB.
It was a really tough night for Mookie Betts (0-5), but I am just as convinced he will have far more good nights than bad nights. Freddie Freeman has his 12 game hitting string snapped.
The 8 game win streak is also snapped, but the Dodgers did not lose any ground to SD or SF. But they are now behind NYY for the best overall record. This will become very important comes WS time.
It is one game, and it was to the worst team in all of MLB. They were facing a pitcher that most will call AAAA who never hit 90 all night. These games happen. What I am most concerned with is if Tony Gonsolin will put the last 2 games behind him and get back to dominating. If the team stays true to the 6 man rotation, then his next outing will come in Colorado on Sunday. He has not pitched poorly at all in 12.0 IP in Colorado. I am very much looking forward to that game.
The Dodgers need to put this one in the rear view mirror. Now it is time to start a 13 game win streak.
- Nationals – 2
- Rockies – 4
- Giants – 4
- Padres – 3
Or am I asking for too much?
Finally, a look at CT3…
#Dodgers Chris Taylor getting some running in. Hopefully he is back soon. pic.twitter.com/1raCL5GluL
— DodgersBeat (@DodgersBeat) July 25, 2022
Tuesday’s Game Preview:
It might just be that there is a book on Gonsolin now. If he averages 6 innings and keeps his ERA under 3.3 from here on out he will be a big asset to the rotation. He is not a young pitcher and I am not going to pre-worry about him.
It has been said but I just read that Soto was compared to Ted Williams. Ted didn’t hit .250 in any of his years (I’m guessing) like Soto is currently doing. He could be being pitched around.
Trace was pretty good when he first played for the Dodgers but he sure is a surprise this time around. I would still like to see himplatoon with Cody in CF.
What to do with CT when he comes back? The platoon of Thompson and Lamb have performed very well. To lazy to check the stats, but I believe the combined platoon is better than CT ( is it a coincidence that the team is playing at its best with this platoon?).
As I just said on the previous thread, I think all the guys in this rotation could use a vacation.
As you may recall, earlier in the year on a different site I suggested this rotation may be vulnerable. I took a load of crap from the usual suspects there, but I stand by that position. Kershaw went down, Buehler is out, Heaney is out and Gonsolin looks like the wind has left his sails. Even several of our best relief arms went down. Hangnail epidemic indeed. I still say all of the starters, including Kershaw, could use a break or we could witness history repeating itself come September/October. It remains my opinion none of these guys are 200 inning thoroughbreds and to ask them to do something they’ve never done successfully is an unrealistic ask.
We went to sleep against the 30th ranked team in baseball and we did it at home. Betts, Freeman, Smith, Bellinger 0 for 17 against last place pitching. It happens. It’s a bit early for cruise control, the best record is of course important come late October. But late October won’t happen with a bus riding on several flat tires.
11 of the Dodgers’ 31 losses have come to the Rockies, Pirates, and Nationals.
1-5 vs Pittsburgh!
Actually the losses against the bad teams might be a good thing, or at least better than losing to good teams.
Apparently this team likes to take time off every so often and they often choose to do it against inferior opposition. That means that come playoff time, when they are only facing good teams, they should be up to the task.
If, during the season, they were clobbering the bad teams but having a hard time with the good teams, that might not bode well for the post season.
Passan (on state of the trade market) ($$$$)
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34293330/what-jeff-passan-hearing-one-week-mlb-trade-deadline-offensive-edition
On Soto:
Yanks and Dodgers have the talent, money and motivation but Padres and Cards are considered the favorites
JD Martinez
Mentioned for the Mets
Bogaerts
Not likely to be traded
Wilson Contreras
Mets, Astros and Giants
Also mentioned Happ, Benintendi, Merrifield, Bell and drury also mentioned without suitors.
I believe this was a four games of on the edge hard fought baseball followed by a game against a bad bad team. You cannot keep the pedal to the medal all the time. There was bound to be a letdown. As I said I am not worried about the game. I am more worried that what some of us feared in the early part of the season about overworking Gonsolin is coming to fruition.
2016 – St. Mary’s – 42.0; MiLB (Rookie & A) – 31.0 – Total – 73.0
2017 – MiLB (A and A+) – 70.0
2018 – MiLB (A+ and AA) – 128.0
2019 – LAD – 40.0; MiLB (AAA) – 41.1 – Total – 81.1
2020 – LAD – 46.2
2021 – LAD – 55.2: MiLB (AAA and A) 12.2 – Total – 58.1
2022 – LAD – 99.2
2018 was the year he was converted to a starter.
2020 was a pandemic year. 2021 was an injury impacted year for Gonsolin with right shoulder inflammation. The original plan was to piggyback Gonsolin and Anderson to limit their innings in the early season. Sort of ease Gonsolin back into it. That plan lasted until Heaney was injured, and then no more piggyback. Both Tony and Anderson have had monster seasons thus far, but neither were projected to pitch as much as they have been required to. Anderson does have experience with 100+ IP, so the concern is not as great. Maybe with a 6 man rotation, Gonsolin’s innings can be curtailed a bit.
Gonsolin does not believe he is overworked and neither to Doc nor the baseball staff. He (they) believe he has lost his command a bit. Doesn’t that happen with being overworked? I will go with he just has a loss of command issue right now. But his next outing could go a long way in dissuading the concern of increasing it.
Per Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo, the Cubs and Mets are deep in trade talks that will send C Willson Contreras and RHRP David Robertson to NYM for multiple prospects not named Francisco Alvarez (C – #1 prospect) or Brett Baty (3B #2 prospect). Alvarez is the top rated catching prospect (#2 overall) and Baty is the 2nd rated 3B prospect (#20 overall). So I am guessing that it will center on 21 year old SS Ronny Mauricio, or 19 year old OF Alex Ramirez, and RHPs, 21 year old Matt Allan, 18 year old Joel Diaz. Probably 2 of the 4, but maybe 3 of the 4. Of course lottery tickets to even out the trade value. Contreras and Robertson are difference makers but they are rentals. The price will be high but not debilitating.
Are the Cubs on the verge of trading Willson Contreras or Ian Happ.
Regardless, the picture does remind us all that these are human lives with human families that are being impacted without their input. This is not fantasy league baseball. It is not just conceivable, but almost a certainty that both will be traded. Contreras has been linked to both the Mets and Astros.
#hugwatch is one of my annual favorites
Reyes Moronta optioned and Garrett Cleavinger is recalled.
One too many tortillas for Moronta. I was tired of watching his uni get ready to explode every time he unleashed a pitch.
Personally, I think everyone is over analyzing this. I watched the entire game. There was only one hit that was really hit hard off of the Catman. The homer to left. The other hits were just out of reach or misplayed like the fly ball to left that Thompson was way too cautious on. He could have caught that ball for the third out easily. Soto’s hit was pure luck. He did not even think it was fair. Ok, 7 days until the deadline. It is not my money, so I am going all in and trading for both Soto and Castillo. Those guys make this team that much better. It also assures us that we do not see the likes of Reyes, I never met a meal I did not eat, Moronta, Phil Bickford and David Price in the playoffs. Zack McKinstry should be packaged in a deal and given an opportunity elsewhere. He is not cracking this roster, and other than going in in a late inning as a defensive replacement, He has not seen the field. Prospects are suspects. I have seen way too many hyped players flame out before or when they get to the show.
Yes, I hope Zach McKinstry is included in a trade. I hope he can latch onto a club that will use him. He has no chance to be an integral part of Dodgers.
I do not mind trading prospects, but sometimes it is hard to discern whether the team trading prospects is actually getting value. Trading 6 years for 2 months is difficult for most GMs. The trading team also needs to trade from a leveraged position. The Keibert Ruiz and JoJo Gray trade for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner was traded from strength. The Dodgers have multiple years of Will Smith and Diego Cartaya soon to follow. Ruiz was a luxury and would be wasted had he not been traded. Gray was one of more than a handful of RHP prospects.
Actually Gonsolin gave up more hard hits than any other pitcher…6. Yes the pop fly into LF and the Soto triple were fortunate for the Nats and unfortunate for LAD. Gonsolin’s swing and misses were way down. 3 BB and 4 K. A HR in each of the last 4 games (5 if you count All Star). 9 runs in the last 11 IP, could be nothing, but it could be a prelude of a regression. He is just not the same pitcher he was in April – June. Something like Buehler was not the same pitcher last September he was April – August.
I agree that even with Gonsolin battling, as I said in the post, it was the offense that failed him. But it was the Dodger bats that took him off the hook against St. Louis. Things have a way of evening out.
Word is out that the Marlins are willing to listen on anyone but Alcantara. I can’t believe they’d trade Chisholm but I think we need to talk to them about one of Jeff’s favorites, Pablo Lopez. Only 26 and has 2.5 years of control remaining.
What do you think folks. An extra year of control above that of Castillo. Who would cost more in prospects? Who would you prefer?
Good question Jefe.
Who would you prefer?
Both have had past shoulder problems. If they were both controllable for the same amount of time, I might go with Castillo, but the extra year of Lopez means something and I’m thinking he might not cost any more in prospects. I’d be OK with either, as long as it didn’t cost us Cartaya or Vargas. I’m leaning toward being willing to trade Miller if the return is good. I’m feeling better about Stone these days than Miller.