As I commented yesterday, Baseball America has published their annual pre-season Top 100 prospects. The Dodgers are one of the highest rated systems with 6 top 100 prospects. Of the 6, 3 are top 30 and all 6 are top 56.
- #18 – Diego Cartaya – C/DH
- #21 – Bobby Miller – RHP
- #30 – Miguel Vargas – 3B/LF/DH
- #54 – Michael Busch – 2B/LF/DH
- #55 – Ryan Pepiot – RHP
- #56 – Gavin Stone – RHP
That is a fairly impressive sextuple of prospects, and five of them could see significant time at the MLB level this season. Cartaya is a year away before he is considered ready for MLB. 2024 is when I have always maintained Diego would be ready. I can recall some who wanted to move Will Smith to 3B to make room for Cartaya for 2022. Now even BA lists Cartaya as the DH in 2026 with Will Smith as the everyday catcher. Interestingly, Will Smith will be a free agent after the 2025 season. Do the Dodgers extend Smith? I would be 100% behind that. IMHO, Smith should be the long term choice as catcher for the Dodgers.
Below is the teams in order of most top 100 prospects.
- Orioles – 8
- Guardians – 7
- Dodgers – 6
- Mets – 6
- Rays – 6
- DBacks – 5
- Red Sox – 5
- Cardinals – 4
- Nationals – 4
- Pirates – 4
- Reds – 4
- Rockies – 4
- Cubs – 3
- Mariners – 3
- Rangers – 3
- Twins – 3
- Angels – 2
- Astros – 2
- Brewers – 2
- Giants – 2
- Marlins – 2
- Padres – 2
- Phillies – 2
- White Sox – 2
- A’s – 1
- Blue Jays – 1
- Tigers – 1
- Royals – 1
- Braves – 0
Digging more into the numbers:
Not only did Baltimore have the most top 100 prospects, but they also had multiple elite prospects. They had 3 top 15. O’s SS Gunnar Henderson was the second consecutive #1 top 100 prospect for Baltimore, after Adley Rutschman topped the list for 2022. RHP Grayson Rodriguez is knocking on the door at #6, and uber SS prospect Jackson Holliday breaks in at #15. Henderson is the odds on favorite for AL ROY. Holliday, son of St. Louis and Colorado star LF Matt Holliday, is the highest rated prospect from the impressive 2022 draft. Most forecasters are projecting Holliday to be #1 prospect for next year’s list. I will not argue with that projection. Holliday is going to be special. He is about as untouchable of a prospect as there is.
The O’s also had the #41, #75, #76, #93 and #95 prospect.
Arizona has perhaps the largest group of elite prospects in MLB. They also had 3 of the top 15. The #2 overall prospect is CF Corbin Carroll. Carroll is the overwhelming favorite for NL ROY. He will be challenged by the Dodgers’ Miguel Vargas, and perhaps a trio of NYM rookies.
DBacks catching prospect Gabriel Moreno, the partial return in the Daulton Varsho deal, is the #12 prospect. Young SS Jordan Lawler checks in at #13. Another of the 2022 draft uber prospects, CF Druw Jones, son of Andruw Jones, was ranked at #24. RHP, Brandon Pfaadt, went from unranked to #27. Pfaadt reached and dominated AAA in Reno. For the year (AA and AAA) at two huge hitter friendly parks, Pfaadt had 218 K’s and only 33 walks in 167.0 IP. That is not a misprint. Pfaadt threw 167 innings last year. That contrasts to the Dodgers fastest riser, Gavin Stone, who threw 121.2 innings, and registered 168 K’s and 44 BB’s. Coincidentally, both Pfaadt and Stone have the exact same birthday, October 15, 1998.
NYM has a stacked roster, but also has a top MiLB system. They have 6 top 100 prospects, including 2 in the top 20, and 4 in the top 50. Their top prospect, catcher Francisco Álvarez (#9), is followed by RHP Kodai Senga (#16).
Long awaited 3B prospect, Brett Baty (#33), should get a long runway to this year. He should receive the biggest advantage of the Mets not signing Carlos Correa. Eduardo Escobar will get some playing time, but Baty should get most of the PA’s at 3B. The final top 50 prospect for NYM is catcher Kevin Parada. Finally, NYM had #92 and #98 prospects.
Cleveland had the second most top 100 prospects with 7, but only two top 20. As usual, Cleveland’s top 2 prospects were RHP, #19 hard throwing Daniel Espino and #20 Gavin Williams. The other Guardian top prospects are #68, #72, #77, #85, and #86.
One other note of interest in the top 100 prospects, is the utter disillusionment that Oakland is as a competent franchise. The A’s have 1 top 100 prospect, home grown catcher Tyler Soderstrom. While Baltimore has rebuilt their farm system with trades and smart draft picks, the A’s squandered a chance to rebuild their system. They have traded Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Sean Murphy, and Jesús Luzardo. That is 4 MLB starting pitchers, a top starting catcher and 3B, and an elite starting 1B. That could be the core of a quality MLB team. Instead they were all traded, and the return has not generated any top 100 prospects. What a waste of an organization. I hope no A’s fans (if there are any left) boycott. The owner(s) only care about the revenue sharing revenue they receive.
For 2023, Baltimore should be rated the top farm system, with Arizona as #2. Besides Brandon Pfaadt, the DBacks have 2 quality RHP prospects who project to be in the starting rotation at some point this year: Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson. Jameson is also considered a top closer prospect. Arizona is capable of overtaking SF this year, and could be a contender in 2024.
While Cleveland has more top 100 prospects than the Dodgers, all 6 LAD top prospects are rated higher than all but two of the Guardians prospects. That should make the Dodgers the clear #3 system. Prior top farm systems have fallen out of the top five or ten. That includes San Diego, Seattle, Toronto, and Atlanta. Atlanta’s roster is stacked, but they will be unable to drop down into their farm system for help, either via trade or calling up. They have zero top 100 prospects. Pursuant to the BA Top 100 chat, they really do not have anyone close.
While most organizations join the elite systems at some point, and the fall off, the Dodgers do not fall into that category. They almost always have a top 10 organization, and now figure to have a top 5. 5 of their 6 top 100 figure to graduate this year. But look for Dalton Rushing, and perhaps OF Andy Pages, RHP Nick Frasso and RHP Nick Nastrini who all could join Cartaya next year. In many of the chats on top prospects, Dalton Rushing, is being loudly lauded as a potentially very quick riser in next year’s top prospect lists. Both Nastrini and Frasso need further development, but are potential back end rotation prospects that could break into the 2024 top 100. Nastrini is a high strikeout rate pitcher, but needs to gain better command. If he does, he will be a #4 or #5 for a contender team. If not, he could become an elite late inning high leverage reliever. This could be a huge breakout season for Frasso who should get a full season after being managed after TJ surgery.
Kyle Glaser was asked what he thought the chances of Frasso breaking into the top 100 by mid season. Here is what he had to say:
Nick Frasso is one of the sleepers who has a chance to rise onto the Top 100, yes. As you’ve said, it all is going to come down to the development and command of his secondary pitches. As for how likely that is, it’s hard to say. He shows it in flashes, but doing so consistently is an entirely different challenge. We’ll see if he can.
SS, RHP, and OF dominated the prospects top 100 list. Catchers were also largely represented.
- Catcher – 12
- 1B – 3
- 2B – 5
- 3B – 6
- SS – 23
- OF – 23
- RHP – 23
- LHP – 5
MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic, ESPN will all be coming out with their versions shortly. As has been a consistent, there is an inconsistency in many of the top 100 lists. Last year, the Dodgers had 2 consensus top 100 prospects (Diego Cartaya and Bobby Miller), and five others that were on one or more lists. I am guessing that will be the same this year, but I would expect more consensus top 100.
As low as they draft I would say that makes the Dodgers picks all that much more impressive.
I agree Bear. I would add the system’s development of players is even more impressive.
Now what? What does this 2023 team need to finish a long season by beating the best teams in baseball? The ace is still missing. The future ace is coming off TJ. The former ace has visited the IL a few times for a few years running. Gonsolin, in my opinion, is a TJ waiting to happen. As impressive as Urias has been I still say as hard as it appears he is working I worry he won’t last to November.
Now what? Freeman and Betts need to be in the lineup for 150 games have to put up 10 WAR between them. Muncy and Taylor need to return to form. Lux needs to be the player that his skill level portends him to be. Vargas needs to be considered for ROY and and the outfield needs to be figured out.
Now what? Do we make that trade to bring in an everyday 5 WAR leader?
This morning I say yes to that trade. But then, I’m a disabled vet, I’ve been awake since 2 a.m., I’ve been admittedly delirious for most of this century so why would anyone listen to me?
All true Badger. There are at this point more questions than answers. Lux at SS is an unknown. The only settled outfield position is right, 1st is the only settled one on the infield. The catching is solid and in good hands, the rotation is a question mark, but there are a lot of arms available. The bullpen looks to be good, if not great. Bench is a question too. DH should be better with a full-time professional hitter like Martinez. Some questions will be answered in spring training. They might end up needing to make a trade at the deadline. I do not think they will make any major moves prior to that.
I believe Rojas was acquired to be the starting SS and that Lux will remain at 2B…at least that is my hope.
I hope you are right Fred. Muncy at 2B is not ideal.
Trading Muncy is our best chance to get under the CBT.
But he is again going to hit 35 home runs and get 500 walks. How hard can it be to trade a guy with those stats especially with teams still wanting to upgrade at first base, Muncy’s best position.
I do not think that is going to happen. I also think he is the insurance policy in case Vargas flops at 3rd. And I believe being more than 1 1/2 years removed from his injury that Maxwells Silver Hammer will be back. 30 plus long balls a .250 avrage and an OBP above .400
It feels to me like people are going to be moved around a lot. JD is DH. Muncy, Taylor, Lux, Vargas, Rojas will all share defensive duties.
Rojas would not have been purchased if he wasn’t going to play shortstop. But I got a feeling Lux will get time there. I keep reading “Lux is no shortstop”. I’m not convinced of that. He’s been a shortstop his whole life. He’s at second because we had Seager then Turner.
Still a lot to be determined.
Yes, Lux has played SS his whole life. So have a lot of players. Most RH MLers played SS for a better portion of their baseball career. Manny Machado, Gleyber Torres, Alex Bregman, ARod, Fernando Tatis, Jr…Most RH MLers played SS for a better portion of their baseball careers. We can go down hundreds of MiLB lineups and find players who have played SS their entire life, and are no longer playing. Lux got his plaudits because of his bat, not his defense. He was already being discussed for a probable move to 2B early on in his MiLB career. His arm was always suspect, but his speed kept him at SS, and because “he has played SS his whole life”. He was a 1st round pick and that is where he wanted to play.
Lux will play adequate defense at SS, but IMO his defensive lapses will play havoc with his offense. When he makes an error, the look on his face is a tell that he is still thinking about that last play. Lux could be an All Star at 2B, but he would be just another middling stop gap at SS for the next one. That is why they got Rojas. They still had CT3 (and Hernandez) as a backup, and Amaya would still have been at OKC in an emergency.
Lux should get the chance to prove me and most talent evaluators wrong and show everyone he is a plus defensive SS during ST. But if the intent was to trade for the rental SS, aka Miguel Rojas, to play a bench role, then I would agree with you that they made a huge mistake in trading for Rojas when Amaya or Hernandez could have filled that role. Rojas put them over the CBT. Thus… a) they are going to make another move to get back down under the CBT threshold, or b) they have never cared whether they were going to be over the threshold or not. As much as I like Rojas, there is no way he is that difference maker, especially on the bench.
Now, if they are planning on a move to get back down under the CBT threshold, the options are limited, and probably limited to CT3. If the intent was to keep Lux at SS, then Rojas was acquired to assume the utility role. Wouldn’t that make sense? Rojas’ bat is not good enough to bring up off the bench in a critical part of the game needing a hit. But his glove???? One of the absolute very best defensive SS in the game today. Why would AF/BG acquire him as a rental, if he was not intended to play SS for LAD this year?
Scouting Report:
Excellent athlete with plus quick twitch and plus coordination/Body control. Instinctual feel for movements and adjusting body to get power where needed.
Glove 55 Quick physical reactions and good closing speed in the gap. Good hands and clean mechanics should lead to relatively few miscues. Good footwork and body control allows him to adapt to balls that lead to strange body positioning. Current reads and instincts should improve a bit with more reps.
I say again, I don’t know he can’t play shortstop.
Because of his arm. In 2022, there were 78 players with at least 100 throws from 2B, and of the 78, Lux was 67th with a 76.4 MPH. The range was from 72.8 to 90.4. Lux was in the 37th percentile for 2B arm strength. He was 81st percentile at OAA at 2B because of his hands and feet. I am not questioning that. SS with good hands, good range, and suspect arms move to 2B. Leave him there. With the bigger bases, Lux’s ability to throw out anyone with any kind of speed from the 3B hole is questionable. He will get to it, and he will make the play, but will he be able to throw the batter/runner out? With last year’s arm, not likely.
And the following was also part of Lux’s scouting report:
“He also has had issues with throwing accuracy, leading to 61 errors in 208 games at short in his first three seasons, so many scouts think he’ll wind up at second base.”
With Muncy at 2B, Lux at SS, and Vargas at 3B, that portends to be one of the worst defensive infields in MLB. They will hit, but they are going to give up runs as well. The Dodger pitchers are either going to have to strike everyone out, or allow a lot of flyballs, because anything hit on the ground is going to be a challenge.
I prefer an infield of Lux (2B), Rojas (SS), and Muncy (3B), with Vargas in LF. They still get the bats in the lineup but with better defense.
If Lux plays second then Muncy moves to third and that pushes Vargas to LF. Maybe that is okay for 2023 but it doesn’t solve 3B for 2024.
Yep, that’s one of the moving parts scenarios. I want Vargas at third now and forever. Outman, Thompson, Pages, Ramos, Reynolds, Heyward, Duggar, Mays, Snider and Mantle in the outfield.
Getting under the cap is going to involve dumping someone. I say Taylor. I think he makes $15 million, then $13M for 4 more years so we may have to give him away. I think, believe, hope Muncy is fully healed and will hit 30 dingers and OPS .800 so I don’t want to trade him
Mantles back??? WOW.
Taylor was paid $15MM last year will make $15MM this year, and $13MM for 2024 and 2025. He has a club option for 2026 of $12MM with a $4MM buyout. Thus the 4 year guarantee of $60MM ($15MM AAV).
Why do you want Vargas at 3B now and forever? He readily acknowledges he is a bat first player, by telling us his best position is the batters box. I think he is capable of putting up an .800 OPS, and believe he should get all of 2023 to prove he belongs or doesn’t.
No matter how many ground balls you hit to him in the off season or spring training, he is not going to turn into anything more than a below average to average 3B. It is not his hands or arm, both more than adequate to play at 3B. It is his footwork, especially going to his left. He makes Max Muncy look like a GG at 3B. That is why he was put into LF at OKC and that is where he played most of his innings with LAD (46 innings). He played 40.2 at 1B (mostly in reserve), and 1.0 inning at 3B. He did not play in the NLDS, although he probably should have been allowed to hit as bad as the Dodgers were hitting.
Vargas may in fact play 3B for LAD this year, but he is not the long term answer there. Similar to Gavin Lux not being the long term answer for short or Michael Busch the long term answer at 2B (where Lux belongs).
Given his bad footwork, why has he been working out at 2nd? I know the Dodgers like versatility but wouldn’t his time be better well spent working out in LF?
I have never seen Vargas play 2B, and I suspect it has to do with versatility. I have seen him play 3rd. He has good hands and a good arm, but that 1st step is slow. He can make all of the plays hit at him. I saw him make a diving play behind 3B and make the throw. But he was near the line to start with.
Why 2nd? The more positions he can play, the more PAs he is going to get. I do not understand how the team is presently constructed, and I suspect that we will not learn the final product until Game 1.
He has enough speed (not elite speed) to run down balls in the gap once he learns proper routes. His arm is certainly good enough for LF. I am not a scout, but for me, I would just put him in LF and let him rake. He will make a lot of $$$ with his bat.
I want Vargas, and all the young players, to focus on one position. When I say now and forever I mean I want him to believe that’s HIS position. I don’t like moving young guys around. Move old guys.
And I’ll say it again, I’m fine with Lux at second, but I really thought we would have landed one of the half dozen or so $30 million+ stud shortstops. We struck out on all of them, then traded our only organizational shortstop for a $5 million 1 year journeyman that doesn’t hit a lick. What happens at that position after this year? I don’t know. You know what else I don’t know? I don’t know how good Lux might be if he re-focused on the position at which he was drafted.
From what I read, in the Athletic I think, Rojas might used at 3 different infield positions and Lux will indeed get work at short. I look forward to seeing what he can do there. Why? Because I don’t know if he can play shortstop at this level. After 68 games in 4 seasons you’re convinced he can’t, that’s been made clear. I would be willing to give him more time than that, but if second is his position fine We can figure out short later.
Baseball America handbook came out today. It continues the parade of good news for Dodgers fans. Overall the team has the 3rd best farm system behind tankers Arizona and Baltimore.
Summarized thusly:
Vargas is arguably the best pure hitting prospect in the game…. The Dodgers are loaded with potential stars.
Feel like listing #11-30?
I won’t.
That was an easy call for the Dodgers to have the 3rd best farm system behind Arizona and Baltimore. As I wrote above, even I figured that one out. I get one right every now and then. 😉
Aroldis Chapman signs a one-year deal with the Royals.
And Mariners signed Tommy La Stella.
Stella!!!
RIP David Crosby.
https://variety.com/2023/music/news/david-crosby-dead-dies-byrds-crosby-stills-nash-1235495467/