I do not understand this desire to rid the Dodgers of Max Muncy. All winter it was Nolan Arenado, and now it is Rafael Devers. I agree with Badger that stats can be reported to support whatever side you are on. My criterion? Is Max a problem at 3B? No. He is not elite offensively or defensively. But he is darn good. He has even improved defensively.
Max wants to be a Dodger. After two seasons where he hit .263/.391/.582/.973 with 35 HRs (2018) and .251/.394/.515/.889 with 35 HRs (2019), he signed a 3-year extension for $26MM. Those were his arbitration years, so both player and team took a chance and it was a win-win. He then signed a 1-year $13.5MM contract, followed by a 2-year $24MM. I have no doubt that he could have signed for more with his last two contracts. But he made it clear he wanted to be a Dodger for the remainder of his career.
Max does not have a no-trade clause, so he is assuming a risk that he could be traded. But he is not the problem that needs correcting.
For 6 years Max will make $63.5MM. His value over the 1st five years of that span is $94.1MM. There is a possibility that Max’s 2025 value takes him to where his value over the last 6 years is double the contract. That is not a problem that needs correcting.
Not only does Max not have a no trade provision, he agreed to a $10MM club option for 2026, with ZERO buyout. I do not think it would be going too far out on a limb to think that the Dodgers pick up that option. To put that a little in perspective, the Cubs signed Justin Turner for 1 year at $6MM. JT is 6 years older than Max. $10MM for a reserve 3B/1B and left bat off the bench is not on unwieldy price. As a reserve, he should generate a 1.2 to 1.3 bWAR to justify the option price.
With all the Arenado discussion, there was one comment from an anonymous individual with knowledge on the situation that bears repeating. At least for me.
Per Buster Olney on Nolan Arenado: “And I asked about the Dodgers about six weeks ago. And to protect the source I have to sort of phrase it this way. I was told: ‘If the Dodgers wanted him, they would have gotten him.”
Apparently, the Dodgers do not want to spend on Nolan for the next three years.
With respect to Rafael Devers, I see absolutely no reason why Boston would trade him. I believe Boston management has advised Devers in private that he could have handled the comments better. He is a plus plus offensive player, but atrocious defensively. So much so that as few games and PA that Max had last year, he had a 3.0 bWAR compared to Devers’ 3.7 bWAR. To piggyback a little on Duke Not Snider’s comment, it is more than conceivable that Max would have > 3.7 bWAR had he played a full season. This would seem to indicate that Devers’ defense is far worse than meh.
I think there is a better chance that Max stays healthy for the year than Devers improving defensively. Since he has led the AL in errors the last 7 years (led MLB in 5 of those 7), either he is not capable of improving defensively, or he just does not care to improve. He is clearly an offensive emphasis player.
As far as his teammates sticking up for Devers, we heard from 1B Triston Casas who backed Devers as the 3B and Bregman as the 2B. This comes from a player whose job basically depends on Devers staying at 3B and not moving to 1B. I am also guessing that Boston management might have advised Casas that he could have handled his comments better as well.
I agree that Devers is younger and a better offensive option. But is he $36.3MM better in 2025 and $40.5MM better in 2026? In 2025, Devers will earn $17.3MM more than Max, and if Max’s option is picked up, $19.3MM more than Max in 2026. With the 110% tax rate, that is $36.3MM excess in 2025 and $40.5MM in 2026.
It is widely reported that teams evaluate players as to how many more wins are generated with him on the roster. The above would indicate that Devers would have to be 4.5 WAR better than Max in 2025 and 5.0 WAR in 2026. Possible, but not likely, especially with his defense. Devers career bWAR is 3.7, and he has surpassed 4.0 twice (2019 and 222), and 5.0 once (2019 at the age of 22). Contrarily, Max has exceeded 4.0 bWAR three times and 5.0 bWAR once. What does that mean???
I could pontificate on the stats more, but again as Badger commented, stats can be measured to however you want to present them. My premise is that Max at 3B is not a problem for LAD. The one questionable position for me is CF. I think the Dodgers are satisfied that they can compete with Edman/Kim/Taylor/Kiké. I think they were hoping that Outman would take the reins, and he still could. But it is more likely that James needs a change of environment, as did Lux.
Will a change come with success? I have no idea. But Outman has nothing left to prove in MiLB. With Edman/Kim/Taylor/Kiké, Outman is not needed for insurance. James is probably at his nadir of his trade value. But Outman has two more years before he reaches arbitration, and 5 years of control overall. For a player who is gifted as defensively as he is, has a career MiLB OPS of .890, and is only one year removed from #3 ROY, what might a team offer for such a player.
There are at least 4 teams who could use Outman at least as a platoon CF:
- Cleveland – Lane Thomas (R)
- Houston – Jake Meyers (R)
- Tampa Bay – Jonny DeLuca (R)
- Miami – Dane Myers (R)
Toronto has Nathan Lukes (L) penciled in as the CF. Is Outman an improvement over the 30 year old with 122 career PA? Perhaps.
If there is a position to “fix”, it is CF. But it is doubtful there is a player out there who is available that can “fix” it. Try trading for a legit CF candidate in AA/AAA this year. It certainly is not Jake Vogel. Maybe SS???
FWIW, I agree with Bear. IMO the Dodgers can get younger and better (offensively) with signing Munetaka Murakami, who will be posted this winter. Although he looks to be an adventure defensively at 3B, he has 240 HRs in 7 seasons through his 24 year old season. That is an average of 34 HR/season. I think the Dodgers take a look.
Watching this Reds-Dodgers game right now. Man oh man does Outman look lost. I wanted him to turn into another Cody Bellinger after his fine ’23 season. I doubt he’ll ever have a decent MLB year again. He can’t barrel up any of the pitches he is seeing.
Wow, Outman is a mess. Taylor not looking much better. It is still early. Hoping for the best.
Here is how see it, for whatever that’s worth. Us Dodgers fans need something to bitch about that is human nature. One looks around the diamond and it’s hard to find the weak link. Cases could be made for second base or centerfield but the Dodgers will be strong in those positions once the management figures out who they want where. When they look around they see Muncy has been hurt and missed a lot of games the last couple seasons. Muncy has certainly produced when healthy.
I would think that us Dodgers fans realize we need to get younger. But while the window is open and the veterans are producing, leave good enough alone.
From what I read the Dodgers’ organization is the envy of MLB and the Dodgers’ clubhouse is the envy of MLB players. Why ruin that with a me-first diva like Devers?
Dodgers getting Hays’d by the Reds.
Outman finally got a hold of one and drove it to the wall. Problem today is WAY TOO MANY STRIKEOUTS> 12 in 6 innings. Taylor(3), Muncy(2) and Outman(2), accounting for 7 of the 12.
KT3 is back. Is there a point where the utility of his versatility is surpassed by the futility of his abilities?
I guess I started the Devers conversation when I referenced this article:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/baseball/dodgers-blockbuster-trade-proposal-brings-rafael-devers-to-la-as-multiple-all-stars-head-out/ar-AA1zCzc7
I’m not much of a fan of a 6′ 235 pound slow runner with little defensive skills but I have to admit it would be fun to have Devers in the Dodger’s batting order. I am optimistic about Freeland and Betts on the left side of the Dodger infield. It injects a younger and cheaper player for an older player.
Jeff, that proposed trade included Taylor along with Muncy so it isn’t fair to only compare Muncy’s cost to Devers’ cost. The trade only has interest because it includes Taylor.
Just as I was giving up hope on Outman he had a 10 pitch at bat that ended with a hard hit long double. I wish Chase Utley would be hired as his Spring Training hitting coach. He looks athletic standing at the plate and the Dodgers have enough offense to live with whatever he adds to the offense.
My bench: Barnes, ?, Rojas, Kike’. I would platoon Kike and Outman and Rojas and Muncy.
58 K’s in five games. 11 plus per game, that is atrocious. Taylor and Outman lead the team with 5 each. Pages is 1-8 with 4 K’s. Freeland is not making this team. He will be the SS at OKC. But guys like Pages and Outman are playing their way off of the team.
Muncy’s our guy.
5 games into SPRING TRAINING and some of you guys already have given up on certain players.
Wow! Tough crowd!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Watching how he baseball journalists always make stuff up I believe this Devers stuff comes from them. Think about it. There was never any mention if Devers getting traded until they signed Bregman and there appeared to be a problem as to which one would play 3rd. So the writers thought the solution was to trade Devers. And to who? A team that needed a 3rd baseman? No, not juicy enough. The Dodgers? Yeah they’re getting everyone anyway and they’re in the news. So they start writing about it and people believe it’s a real thing. This happens all the time with every free agent,Soto,Harper etc.
The Guardians owner, Larry Dolan has passed away at the age of 94. White Sox consider Miguel Vargas as a third baseman. Two former Dodgers, Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda, are part of the battle for rotation spots with the Tigers.
Have to agree with you Bear. Muncy is not a problem. If he stays healthy, he will hold down 3B more than adequately.
Pages and Outman are blowing their opportunities to make the roster. Right now neither of them look better than Taylor and Taylor is much more versatile. It is still somewhat early, but, their opportunities are running out.
It is a shame that Taylor got HR happy. He should have modeled his game after Brett Butler. Make contact, spray the ball around and use his speed. Become an on base machine.
Max has been a favorite of mine since he joined the Dodgers and found success.
Just a great back story–from nearly giving up to an all-star.
In those first years, he played second fiddle to Belli–but a loud second fiddle. There have been stretches that he has carried the offense. In early ’23, it was Max and Outman who were out-producing Mookie and Freddie.
I still wish that he had Chris Taylor’s agent. Somebody should tell Max that there is no obligation to give the Dodgers a hometown discount. That said, he makes no bones about bleeding Dodger blue.
The Dodgers could well pivot to Murakami next season and keep Max too. Pretty sure both bat lefty, so a platoon wouldn’t make sense.
TrueBlueLA or maybe DodgerNation just had a piece about Max’s march up the Dodgers HR leaderboard. He should pass Furillo, Garvey and Matt Kemp this season.
I found this article in SI yesterday from Tom Verducci interesting about pitching and Spring Training..
https://www.si.com/mlb/eight-pitchers-spring-training-better-stuff
Today’s starting lineup against the Mariners. Betts, SS, Edman 2B, Conforto LF, Kike 3B, Rojas 1B, Rosario RF, Barnes C, Outman CF, Ward DH, Snell P.
The latest MLB Pipeline podcast is worth a listen for dodger fans, I am out, it mentions Jaren Elkins and that Lantigua prospect. The former is a seventh round draft pick/converted running back who has been tearing it up in the complex. The latter is who the Dodgers traded for international money, who is a potential right field monster.
I think it is a little harsh to judge players positively or negatively after 7-8 AB or 9-10 PA. There will be times during the season where Mookie/Freddie/Shohei/Teo/Max can’t buy a hit for a week.
If we are judging on such a small sample size, the catchers have to be Austin Barnes and Hunter Feduccia. David Bote has to start somewhere, and Zyhir Hope does not need any more MiLB. And for the I hate CT and love Kiké crowd, I guess Kiké better pick it up.
It is easy to judge Rushing because he is hitless in 4 games, but he has a .569 OBP. Doesn’t that count?
Some of these guys are working on new swings, and as Tyler Glasnow said with the pitching, you work on changes in practice and stop thinking in games. I think that is a little simplistic and easier said than done. I agree that it needs to be replicated enough in practice where it becomes muscle memory. That does not happen in 10 PA. You can have all the BP and sim games you want. But that does not equate to an actual game. Give it time.
During the regular season we abstain (or most of us do) from judging hitters until they reach at least 100 AB.
For the second straight season, the Dodgers are playing less Spring games because of starting the regular season early with games in Korea and Japan. There may not be enough time to fully get the timing down for both the pitchers and hitters. Will any LAD hitter get 40 AB’s? Last year there was 1; Mookie with 41.
FWIW, if Outman gets 2 more hits in his next 4 AB’s and strikes out once, he will be exactly where he was last year in ST and 11 AB. In 39 PA and 34 AB, his final 2024 ST numbers were .294/.385/.559/.944. That was just about what he put up in 2023 when he played himself onto the 26-man and starting CF over Trayce Thompson.
Per Jack Harris:
Dave Roberts left open the possibility of Hyeseong Kim starting the season in the minors, as he continues to make swing adjustments coming over from Korea
GM Brandon Gomes has also been non-committal about where Kim will begin the season
Still a lot of time left in camp before any final decisions are made, but something to monitor as the Dodgers evaluate their roster over the rest of spring
Why did Carson Hobbs pitch in a MLB game in the 2nd inning? Save these guys to face MiLB hitters in the 7-9 innings.
Another loss, 13 more strikeouts. Hoese did have a 2-run double in the 9th. Snell pitched ok, but made 30 pitches in his one inning of work.
The Athleric came out with their all under 25 team. Shockingly, no Dodger was included.
While you say Muncy isn’t a problem, I beg to differ. He certainly didn’t show up for the World Series (0-15) while Kike was one of the heroes. Muncy again is a non productive bat for 2025 along with his prior years. Muncy, Taylor, Barnes (.059 currently) Kershaw should be a relief man now. The Dodgers just hang on to non producers because of 2020. But zero contribution for 2024! 😒