The Dodgers have taken a big hit in the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects. Last year the Dodgers had 7 top 100 prospects:
- Diego Cartaya – C – #8
- Bobby Miller – RHP – #26
- Miguel Vargas – 2B – #41
- Michael Busch – 3B – #42
- Andy Pages – OF – #66
- Ryan Pepiot – RHP – #74
- Gavin Stone – RHP – #77
Of that group none are in the top 100 at the beginning of 2024. Miller, Vargas, and Pepiot graduated (and traded).
Cartaya, Pages, and Stone are no longer in the top 100 for MLB Pipeline.
Busch is now with the Cubs and checked in at #44. Busch is one of 7 Cubs to make the top 100. No team had more top 100 prospects than the Chicago Cubs.
The Dodgers? They had two top 100 prospects, and neither were higher than #75.
- Dalton Rushing – C – #75
- Nick Frasso – RHP – #80
26 teams placed a player in the top 100 before the Dodgers had one.
The Orioles are still the most elite farm system. They have 5 of the top 50 (6 overall), and the Brewers have 4. The Nationals, Padres, Tigers, Red Sox, and Cubs all have 3 in the top 50.
Only the Marlins (1), A’s (1), Royals (1), Angels (1), and Astros (0) had less than the Dodgers with two.
I understand that Dodgers fans want to play the kids and get younger, but they just do not have the elite talent that AF/BG can point to that is a potential starter. That being said, James Outman was not a top 100 prospect except for The Athletic (#86) and he has made the regular lineup.
The Dodgers have a good number of lower level MiLB players who have a chance to rise into the top 100, and some could rise by mid-season. Jackson Ferris (LHP), River Ryan (RHP), Josue DePaula )OF), and Payton Martin (RHP) could have some helium if they get out to good starts in 2024. Notice that 3 are pitchers. Andy Pages could return to his projected elite status if he starts out well. Diego Cartaya’s helium has a leak, but it could be patched. DePaula, Pages, and maybe Cartaya are the only position players that could join Rushing as position players in the top 100 in the near future. It will be fun to watch Joendry Vargas, Kendall George, Trey Sweeney, and Jake Gelof this year to gauge how far away they are.
The Dodgers have a bundle of depth players who will play MLB. But how many regulars if not All Stars? This is why it makes more sense to package some of these prospects and trade for a player or pitcher who are difference makers. Just how long before their trade value dissipates? Just how long before we see far more Kody Hoese’s than James Outman’s?
Top 100 prospects per team:
- Cubs – 7
- Orioles – 6
- Padres – 6
- Reds – 5
- Brewers – 4
- Pirates – 4
- Rays – 4
- Rangers – 4
- Tigers – 4
- Red Sox – 4
- Giants – 4
- Phillies – 4
- Rockies – 4
- Guardians – 4
- Mariners – 4
- Yankees – 4
- Mets – 4
- Nationals – 3
- Twins – 3
- D-backs – 3
- Cardinals – 3
- White Sox – 2
- Blue Jays – 2
- Braves – 2
- Dodgers – 2
- Marlins – 1
- A’s – 1
- Royals – 1
- Angels – 1
- Astros – 0
The Dodgers have also announced that they have invited 20 non-roster players to major league camp.
Right-handed pitchers (8) Nabil Crismatt, Kevin Gowdy, Jesse Hahn, Elieser Hernández, Daniel Hudson, Michael Petersen, River Ryan and Eduardo Salazar, left-handed pitchers (2) Stephen Gonsalves and T.J. McFarland, catchers (2) Chris Okey and Dalton Rushing, infielders (4) Jonathan Araúz, Austin Gauthier, Kevin Padlo and Trey Sweeney and outfielders (4) Drew Avans, José Ramos, Travis Swaggerty and Ryan Ward.
Home grown players are River Ryan, Dalton Rushing, Austin Gauthier, Drew Avans, José Ramos, and Ryan Ward. None of them figure to crack the 40 man this year. The one to watch is Austin Gauthier. He appears to be a good candidate to be the heir apparent to Miguel Rojas and CT3 for 2025. He seems to get better the more he advances. I do not know if he will start at AAA, but he should get there rather quickly. How he performs at OKC will dictate just how far away he is.
I will be out of the loop for most of this weekend. My grandson has a soccer tournament 2+ hours away. He has games (at least 2) on both days. Unfortunately for us, his team has drawn Game 1, and we need to leave by 5:00 AM.
I will be away from my computer for most of the next two days. I will not be able to approve anyone who needs to have their comments approved. There is only one commenter who has been placed in moderation for approval after being approved that first time. Hopefully he will not get blocked. It does not happen very often, but it does happen. I have been trying to get the maintenance team to remedy this issue. They just have not been successful as of yet.
I will also not be able to monitor the comments, so please be respectful.
Bear has a post that I will publish for Sunday, and because I may not be around much to write, it may need to go for two days.
Best of luck to your grandson and his team. Many thanks to Bear and yourself for all you do to maintain this site. It has softened the blow of losing Mark’s DT site.
FWIW, Rushing and Frasso are the only Dodger prospects listed in the top 100 by MLB Pipeline–and not very highly, with Rushing at 75 and Frasso at 80.
I’m not sure if any of these lists really have a great track record of predicting major league success.
James Outman only cracked one top 100 list when he was a prospect.
While the Dodger system is (at first glance) devoid of superstars, due to where they draft, they do have plenty of depth. The plan moving forward (it would appear) is to grow the depth and sign or trade for the superstars. Fifty tears ago, I had a 100 MPH fastball but no secondary pitches. No changeup and no curve. Could I have been taught that today? We will never know, but BA, BP, and all the prospect ranking sites are quick to fall out of love with guys like Cartaya and Stone. Progress is not linear, and with one tweak, Diego Cartaya could be back to being a monster, and Gavin Stone can be a solid #3 or #4 IF he can harness that proverbial slider. This is why it’s fun to watch minor league games. I love to see players progress year-over-year-over-year!
Austin Gauthier is a ballplayer. In my mind, that is one of the best compliments you can give a person. Zach McKinstry is a ballplayer too. He is now with the Tigers, but he has played every position except Catcher and 1B. I suspect that his bat will continue to evolve. He’s a ballplayer… so is Austin!
Rushing is deservedly #1 and has tremendous power, but I don’t think we will see him until 2026 in the Show. If I had a favorite prospect, it would be Alex Freeland. BA said this:
I root for guys like that. What an inspiration! At birth, they doubted he would ever walk properly. now, he might be an MLB player. Did I mention that he is a ballplayer? He is also a switch-hitter. My brain tells me that he will never be a MLB SS, but my heart tells me, “You never know with this guy!”
The Dodgers have four catchers in BA’s TOP 30 Dodger Prospects: Rushing, Cartaya, and Fernandez (2B, too), but Thayron Liranzo could be the best of the bunch. Liranzo hit .272/.400/.562, led the California League with 24 home runs and led all qualified minor league catchers with a .962 OPS. He also guided the Quakes’ pitching staff to the most strikeouts and lowest opponent average in the league. He is a switch-hitter who could move up quickly. He will be 21 in July and should start at Great Lakes.
There may not be any superstars in the Dodgers Farm system, but there is a boatload of really, really good complementary players. Most of the Superstars are Top 10 draft picks. The Dodgers have not picked in the Top 10 since Christ was in Cleveland.
BTW, all off-season, teams were calling about Busch and Vargas. Busch is gone, but Vargas remains, and the Dodgers think highly of him, even though he is no longer officially a prospect. I have no idea what they might do with him. He just turned 24 and is adding muscle as he gets his “man strength.” Where he ends up playing may surprise us all. I am also anxious to see what Andy Pages looks like this spring – before his injury last year, he was noticeably svelter. (Is that a word?)
Good stuff. Freeland keeps making lists.
I like Galiz, a 20 y.o. catcher who was part of the same haul as Diaz and Doncon. Buried behind 3-4 other catching prospects, he’s potential a dude.
Dodgers last top 10 pick was in 2006. They chose seventh and grabbed some guy named Kershaw.
it’s a word Mark
Svelter … comparative adjective for the word svelte
James Outman impressed as a rookie last year and now he’s representing the Los Angeles Dodgers on the list of MLB Top-10 Center Fielders Right Now heading into the 2024 season.
The Shredder ranked Outman as the sixth-best center fielder, while MLB Network analyst Mike Petriello had him seventh and he placed eighth on Vince Gennaro’s list.
I asked about an updated system ranking a few days as I couldn’t find one. The most recent I did find was BR and with Busch still on board they had the Dodgers 10th. No doubt they aren’t there anymore so I assume all the talk about how deep the system is might, for the time being anyway, abate. These ratings can appear mutable and I fully expect revisions through the course of the year.
I will also add the Dodgers system ranking, for the time being anyway, hardly matters.
When Andrew Friedman was hired, he said that he wanted to keep the Dodgers competitive, year in and year out. He has delivered, and part of that equation is depth. Most of the Dodgers’ Top 30 prospects will be ready in 2024 and 2025. That depth is important, as injuries are a big part of the game. And then, there is also the guy like Mike Piazza who comes out of nowhere.
Fangraphs will update their rankings soon:
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings
Interesting graph. Not a lot of detail of course, and it isn’t up to date, but I doubt it will change much on the immediate update.
There’s an old saying among miners, (a hobby I had years ago) – “gold is where you find it.” And in the Dodgers case, they can do less digging than most organizations, they can just buy gold. And having lived in giants country for decades I know personally how that pisses off others.
I’m sure there will be players that rise. The Dodgers, I think, are getting better at identifying hidden gems and polishing them up. In my opinion that begins with athletes who have 20/10 vision, fast twitch dominance, and character. Give great coaches that to work with and they will develop top tier baseball players.
Doesn’t seem right that teams that get to draft early should complain about teams that buy players instead.
“Gold is where you find it.”
Solid saying!
I’ll have to remember that one!
Good post but I wouldn’t conclude anything based on the new Pipeline ratings. You say we might not have any new hitters join the list in the next few years but we don’t know. You mention DePaula, Pages & Cartaya and some high upside guys, but what about all the teenagers like Quintero & Morales. Then there’s Liranzo, Newell etc. I know the system skews toward pitchers and probably toward lower-level hitters and overall depth, but we’re in good shape and maybe someone will be a surprise.
I know the excuse is “the Dodgers never draft high enough to draft super stars because we’re so good every year, but they have good depth type players.”
It’d be interesting to know how many players from this Top 100 list were in fact Top 10 draft picks, or even first round picks at all.
If I think of the “superstars” on the current Dodgers and over the last decade of dominance, how many of those guys were top 10 picks?
Just looking back at some of our All Stars the past decade: Mookie was a 5th rounder. Freeman 2nd rounder. Bellinger a 4th rounder. Trae Turner 13th round. Muncy 5th rounder. Justin Turner 7th round. JD Martinez 20th round. Tony Gonsolin 9th round. CT3 5th round. Matt Kemp 6th round. Joc Pederson 11th round.
Yes, most of those guys weren’t drafted by us, but they were later round, outside of the Top 10 for sure, guys who made the All Star Game, and in some cases are considered superstars.
I’ve had those same thoughts.
Kershaw is the only top 10 guy in the bunch, and he is unsigned.
This should be easy to investigate further Bobby, but it took 30 seconds to find out the following:
Of the top ten propspects: Holliday, Skenes, Langford, Crews, Jenkins and Montgomery were all first round picks. The first five of those were top ten picks.
Of the International Players Chourio signed for 1.8mm, Salas for $5.8mm. Caminero for $225K.
The last one? Evan Carter? Lasted all the way until the 2nd round.
I think the Dodgers do a good job of player development and some of the lower level players will get better. But really, w Betts, Freeman, Ohtani anf Yamamoto all signed to big long term contracts there are less holes to fill. Pitching is always needed and they have Yamamoto, Ohtani and Miller locked up for awhile.
Was reading that Hudson probably makes the team is he’s healthy in spring training. Assuming either he or Treinen snags one of the bullpen jobs. Would be nice is Yarbrough can be the 3rd lefty/swingman. Assuming 8 members:
1. Phillips
2. Graterol
3. Ferguson
4. Kelly
5. Vesia
6. Yarbrough
7. Hudson/Treinen/Grove/Hurt
8. Feyereisen/Vanasco/Varland/NRI
Some good arms will be traded or sent to AAA–AND we likely still are adding a Brasier-type in FA.
We’re gonna need a lot of bullpen arms especially if we go to a six man rotation of 5 inning pitchers
I love following and rooting for our prospects but I’d still choose our success over the past 10 years and having a roster that lists Ohtani, Yamamoto, Mookie and Freddie over having the most top 100 prospects.
Speaking of home grown prospects, James Outman made MLB’s top 10 list of best centerfielders at #6. Nice little blurb about him on MLB Network.
In his first minor league season, he hit .268 in Low A with a .762 OPS.
The next year at High A, he hit .250 with a .670 OPS.
BTW, he hit 14 HR (combined) in those seasons.
In his first callup, in 74 PA, he hit .232 with a .603 OPS.
The next year he hit .318 with 35 HR!
He was drafted in the 62nd round of the MLB Amateur Draft.
Progress is not linear, and he should have never gotten away. He is in the HOF with Adrian Beltre.
BTW, he is not Tommy Lasorda’s Godson.
And AF has had a couple of first round misses in Hoese and Kendell. But looking back the last 7-8 years the Angels have had horrific first round picks! But the biggest strength of the Dodgers has been drafting and developing pitching. And I think Miller and Sheehan are stars and long term inexpensive starters. And many more in the pipeline
Drafting has been good but opportunistic trades for Frasso, Ryan & Hurt have really been the difference-maker.
I think you mean to type “player development” instead of (or along with) “opportunistic trades”
No, you’re wrong.
Great piece in The Athletic on the Dodgers’ Roster Projections:
https://theathletic.com/5228547/2024/01/26/dodgers-roster-projection/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288
Well, that’s what I would have said.
It gets quiet in here after 6 PM. Does everyone take their Geritol and go to bed? 😉
Geritol just keeps me awake. I drink chamomile tea.