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Seager, Turner, and Lux

Everyone realizes that it takes two to make a contract.  Apparently Scott thinks that as long as the Dodgers are willing to overpay everyone, that player will just come to LA.

They let two MVP shortstops walk in free agency, one after the other. 

 Yeah, they just LET them walk.  The Dodgers offered Seager 8 years $250MM.  That was not enough, and Texas offered Corey $325MM for 10 years. Should the Dodgers have offered $342MM (the offer Padres gave Turner)?  $350MM?  What contract amount would make everyone think that the Dodgers want to win?

During Seager’s prime years, he was out quite a bit due to injuries.  For his last 8 years (age 22 – 29), Seager has generated an fWAR of 30.7 for a value of $245.4MM.   He has $252.5MM remaining on his contract for his 30-37 years.  That equates to an approximate fWAR of 31.5 over the next 8 years.  Thus, he needs to put up a greater fWAR in his not so prime years than he did in his prime years. With Seager’s injury history, the chances of Seager accumulating 31.5 fWAR and $252.5MM are fairly long.  If he does make it, it will not be by much, and I am not sure the Dodgers believed the risk was warranted.

Could the Dodgers have matched Texas’ offer?  Of course.  But then would they have signed Freddie Freeman?  Realistically no.  But why  hesitate.  Just go ahead and do it.  $$$ is no object.

Now to Trea Turner.  There was nothing in the conversations between LAD and Trea that made the Dodgers believe there was a chance for an equitable contract.  There has to be some semblance between contract value and fWAR.  Or is the correlation irrelevant?

The Padres offered Turner $342MM, highest contract offer for a SS.  He told the Padres, NOOOOO!

The Dodgers were never going to offer more than $342MM.  Fans may not agree with the decision, but the front office was gearing up for a youth movement and passing the SS torch to Gavin Lux.  We will never know whether that would have worked out had Lux not torn two knee ligaments last spring.

In his age 30 season, Turner had an fWAR of 3.8 and a value of $30.5MM.  His salary for 2023 was $27.273.  He earned his salary.  Now can he replicate that performance over the next TEN YEARS?  I think Trea Turner is special, but his biggest asset is his speed.  As he ages, that speed is going to regress.

It’s super incompetent in my opinion to let both of these guys walk to play Gavin Lux. Or is it because they didn’t want to spend the money? 

I am not so clairvoyant that I can predict how Lux would have played this year.  He very well could have put up a better fWAR than Trea.

Didn’t want to spend the $$$???  Per Cot’s Contracts, 2022 AAV payroll (year Seager left) was $293MM.  2023 AAV payroll (year Turner left) was $267MM. And another $97MM in taxes.   How much more do you think the Dodgers should spend on payroll?  $400MM? Seager and Turner would have been an annual commitment of another $35MM to the payroll.  Look how that worked out for NYM who has one of the absolute best SS in the game, Frankie Lindor.

Why stop there?  Next year, spend another $60MM for Ohtani.  Another $30MM for Snell.  Another $25MM (plus posting fee) for Yamamoto.  Another $30MM for Matt Chapman.  Another $20MM for Josh Hader. It is obviously the payroll that dictates how well the team plays in the post season.

Maybe if one of the LAD players with one of the top 5 contracts (Betts, Freeman, Kershaw, Muncy, Taylor) didn’t s*** the bed in the playoffs they could have won a series.  It wasn’t who was not there.  It was who was there that failed.

Don’t forget that Scott believed that the Dodgers did not spend enough for starting pitching before the season, and AF needed to be held accountable.   Another $50MM in SP???? Verlander would have been $45MM just for himself.  I guess they could be approaching $400MM.

I do not equate $$$ to championships.  Obviously some do.

Finally, if the overall MiLB of the year (2019) is not good enough to make the LAD starting lineup, then why have an MiLB system?  Per Scott:

Lux isn’t in the same stratosphere as those two (Seager and Turner),  but then we’re going to let him walk a year later because we have the best number 9 hitter on the planet in Lux.

Gavin Lux is the best position player to come out of the farm system since Corey Seager.  If he doesn’t deserve a starting position, who does?

 

 

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OhioDodger

I am totally OK with not signing Seager and TTurner. Those contracts will not end well.

Jeff

But they’ve begun very well, don’t you think?

Dave

Lux at short backed up by Rojas? Lh hitters ar 1b,ss,3b,cf and maybe rf? We need more good rh bats for 3b and Of.

Badger

We have two HOFers at the top of our lineup. We have one of the best hitting catchers in baseball hitting behind them. We have (had) a HOFer in the rotation, along with a first round pick (Buehler) two big strong guys who throws 100 mph, Catman, Syndergard and Bauer. We had a possible rising star in Lux, who was replaced by a defensive wizard at short. We added some solid veterans in the outfield.

Then, the boat sprang several leaks, all of which we have discussed thoroughly here

The team put together by Friedman had the potential to win 111 again. But, with the myriad of injuries it only won 100. Woe is us.

If Mookie, if Freddie, if Kershaw…. we probably wouldn’t be having these discussions. They know it.

I’m confident the team will reboot and rebound. It will be another long winter. We’re used to that. But, it might be exciting for us.

In the mean time we have two Texas teams, yawn, Arizona and Philadelphia playing baseball. Honestly I don’t give a rat’s ass who wins this tournament, but, having spent 11 years in Arizona, I’d be ok if they do well. But, I’m not watching.

As Ted would say… carry on.

Last edited 6 months ago by Badger
Jeff

Too bad, Badger. These are excellent games being played showcasing why these teams are where they are.

Oldbear48

For the Dodgers to sign Seager and his contract have the same monetary value as his deal with Texas, they would have had to offer him about 50 million more. The reason is simple, no state income tax in Texas. He takes home more per year than he would in California. As for Turner, everyone says his desire to play on the east coast was made up. If so, why did he turn down so much more money to go east? Dodgers made the right choice.

Bumsrap

If taxes were an issue for California then living in Texas has to be one too.

Scott Andes

Aren’t taxes pretty high in Texas too?

Just asking, I don’t know if they are or not.

Oldbear48

Taxes are high everywhere. we all get raped by state and local taxes. Also the feds. But there is no state income tax. so he gets a break there.

Bumsrap

Longhorns are a great school and Austin a good plus weird city but the state is flat as a pancake-‘Boring.

Badger

“The Texas Constitution forbids personal income taxes. Instead of collecting income taxes, Texas relies on high sales and use taxes. When paired with local taxes, total sales taxes in some jurisdictions are as high as 8.25%”

I would like Jeff to explain, or anybody with knowledge on the subject, this to me in terms of what exactly it means in terms of Seager’s contract with Texas

“A baseball player pays income taxes not only in the state where he lives but in every state where he plays. But, since he doesn’t pay taxes twice on the same money, he’ll file a non-resident return for all those states and claim a credit from each state, to reduce the amount he owes to the state where he lives. This so-called “jock tax” has been around since the 1960s and, as you might guess, has never been very popular with players.

No Credits

If a player lives in one of the nine states without income taxes (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming), they won’t get a credit for taxes paid to another state because there aren’t any income taxes in his home state.”

Last edited 6 months ago by Badger
Bumsrap

States with no income tax have high property taxes.

Singing the Blue

Two things:

1) The Dodgers have apparently hired Nelson Cruz as a coach/advisor to work with some of our prospects in Arizona. Someone on Twitter (can’t remember who) posted a pic of him with one of our young outfield prospects, Eduardo Quintero, yesterday. This kid (at least so far) looks to have some real potential. Can’t remember if you’ve posted anything on him Jeff, but if not, maybe you could go digging for a future article.

2) We’ve been discussing the downside of the division winners having to have all those days off before they start the playoffs. Here’s an article from JP Hoornstra with an idea that might be worth thinking about. It certainly beats intra squad games.

Hoornstra: Here’s how to fix 5-day layoff for MLB’s top-seeded playoff teams

Bumsrap

Here is more on Quintero along with an interesting take on 8 prospects.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/2024-los-angeles-dodgers-top-10-fantasy-baseball-prospects/ar-AA1is2h3

Bobby

Interesting link, thanks. He’s quite high on the super young guys, and odd to see any list without Cartaya and Kyle Hurt.

I wonder if he chose the super young guys because they are just that good/promising, or he’s not enamored with the normal lists we’re all used to seeing.

Badger

I thought I mentioned this idea last week. If I didn’t, I meant to.

Dave

I have a better idea. Add 2 more teams to the playoffs and start the games, every team plays, 1 vs 8,2 vs 7 etc. No layoff, no excuses, more teams still in it down the stretch.

Badger

That makes sense to me Dave. Division winners and best records in my opinion need more advantage. The answer to all of this is 4 Divisions in each league. Maybe Jeff can address that in a daily post.

Oldbear48

No on Frazier, hasn’t been the same player in years. We have enough utility types

Singing the Blue

We need to come up with a sarcasm emoji.  😏 

Oldbear48

Yep. Or just write sarcasm after your post.

Singing the Blue

I think the difference between the LA press and the Anaheim press is far less than between Anaheim/NY or Anaheim/Boston.

We can just write into Shohei’s contract that if he signs we force Dylan Hernandez and Plaschke to leave town.

Last edited 6 months ago by Singing the Blue
Badger

Plaschke will love him.

Dylan will like him, from a distance and only if he does what he’s getting paid to do.

Scott Andes

yeesh, Jeff, I can’t tell tone in these articles, so not sure if you are frustrated when writing these. Honestly, I don’t know why you have to beat me up in some of these articles, but you’re kind of putting words in my mouth. Where do I begin,

“Apparently Scott thinks that as long as the Dodgers are willing to overpay everyone, that player will just come to LA.”

When did I ever say this?

“Should the Dodgers have offered $342MM (the offer Padres gave Turner)? $350MM?  “

Maybe they should have? if they really wanted to keep him in town, they could have at least matched the offer. They have the funds. Remember in the old days before this analytics movement, teams would actually bid against other teams for top free agents. I’m not saying the Dodgers should have offerred 400M, but if they wanted to keep him, they could have oferred market price for a talent like Seager.

 and I am not sure the Dodgers believed the risk was warranted”

Yes he’s had injury issues. a lot of players have. is the risk warranted? well he did win world series MVP, and NLCS MVP, and could win another world series this year with the Rangers. My opinion is the risk is warranted, with him.

How much more do you think the Dodgers should spend on payroll? $400MM?”

As much as it takes to win championships. Stop defending Mark Walter’s wallet. The team already charges an arm and a leg for tickets, food, parking. What else is the revenue/profit supposed to go for a baseball team? To field as good of a roster as you can. It’s not your money, nor is it mine. If they choose to spend 500 million on the player roster, good. That’s where the bulk of the money is supposed to go, to the team. I don’t care how much they spend. (and please don’t start talking about the luxury tax and draft picks, or bonus pool stuff).

“It is obviously the payroll that dictates how well the team plays in the post season.”

No, it’s the talent, clutch hitting, great starting pitching, and the team’s desire to win.

“Maybe if one of the LAD players with one of the top 5 contracts (Betts, Freeman, Kershaw, Muncy, Taylor) didn’t s*** the bed in the playoffs they could have won a series. “

Maybe if the Dodgers had an actual major league starting rotation, they could have won as well.

“Don’t forget that Scott believed that the Dodgers did not spend enough for starting pitching before the season, and AF needed to be held accountable. “

You’re putting words in my mouth again. I didnt say he didnt spend enough, I said he didn’t acquire enough. I don’t care how they get the pitching, free agency, trades, international, swap meet, softball leagues, just get it.

“Gavin Lux is the best position player to come out of the farm system since Corey Seager. 

Really Jeff? I don’t think so. What about Will Smith? Buehler? Urias? Bellinger? Joc? I think all were after Seager, or around the same time. You think Lux is better than those guys?

I guess we can agree to disagree. Remember we’re on the same team.

Bluto

This is Scott’s recent tactic. He says silly opinions, ignores facts to the contrary, sticks to those opinions, and they offers “we can agree to disagree.”

Bluto

LOL.

No, I wasn’t referencing your posts.

Scott Andes

Not sure I should even respond to this since you said you wouldn’t read it anyways.

I’m very sorry for your loss and what you and your family are going through. Obviously I did not know, and you have my best wishes and prayers.

I’m not going to respond to anything else. What I will say is you should spend more time defending people that comment and read at your blog, instead of defending Friedman, a multimillionaire, who probably doesn’t give a crap about you.

It’s responses like yours that make the Dodger blog community a nasty toxic place that I no longer wish to be a part of. I thought your site was different, a safe place where people can come and express their opinions without being bullied, insulted or made to feel like they are stupid. Maybe I was wrong.

This will be my last post here. Take care of yourself Jeff.

Bumsrap

Might Scott, Bluto and Jeff give us a heads-up when they are about to banter so we can have the popcorn ready?

Bluto

I tried to remove myself!

Fred Vogel

Quite a day of banter.

Last edited 6 months ago by Fred Vogel
Badger

I find it interesting. Strong opinions from opinionated people.

Fred Vogel

I agree. Fun stuff.

Bumsrap

I agree too but I still would like popcorn with the bantor.

Badger

I prefer mine with butter.

Bumsrap

Banter with butter?

Badger

Sure. That too. Everything’s better with butter.

Scott Andes

I’m going to add one last comment here, even though you may not read or respond to it.

“If winning the WS and NLCS MVP are criteria for signing players, 

It’s not and I never said it was. Just using it as an example to show what a great player Seager is.

Obviously Seager’s market value to Texas was more than market value to any other team

The Rangers saw what a great player he is injuries or not, and decided he was worth the money spent. They saw a great hitter/player and figured he was the type of player that could help them win a championship. This is the orginizational thinking that helps explain why the Rangers are where they are (two wins from the World Series) and the Dodgers are sitting on their couches or on the golf course.

“Seager was/is my favorite player, and there is no way I would have paid him $325MM.”

That’s because you’re thinking and speaking like a business/finance guy, and not like a baseball guy. The Rangers saw his value, and they don’t have as much money payroll space as the Dodgers do.

Spend “As much as it takes to win championships”. Let us all know how much that is. Better yet, why don’t you become a consult for the 30 MLB teams and tell them how much it takes to win championships.

I have no idea how much that is. I’m guessing neither does the Rangers, or the Phillies or any team. They just go after talent they believe can help them win. The rest of your comment is just snark. (Remember when I was accused of too much snark)?

Before that though, instead of telling all of us why players left (that you have no idea as to why they did)

I never said why they left. All I said was that the Dodgers never offerred Turner a contract, yes they had discussions, but those discussion never went anywhere. Then Turner told the media he would have been open to returning to the Dodgers had they made him an offer. Which is true

how AF needs to be held accountable and acquire players from softball leagues, why don’t you step out on the limb and enlighten us as to who YOU think the Dodgers should acquire.

Such resentment towards me in this comment. How dare I challenge the alter of the mighty Andrew Friedman? The softball league comment was humor, a joke. He does need to be held accountable as he is the president of BO. He is the boss. He makes the decisions. The players play, but the bosses make the decisions. I already named a couple of pitchers I would have liked to see the Dodgers pick up. This isnt a me vs. Friedman challenge. This is a postseason vs. Friedman challenge, and postseason has won, 8 of the 9 years he has been at the helm.

You seem to think AF failed in getting the players, even though you have ZERO clue as to any of the trade or FA conversations.

He did fail. The Dodgers did not have enough starting pitching to win the World Series this year. The starting pitching posted a 25.00 ERA in the AZ series. That’s a big failure right? Never said I had any clue about the trade conversations, as I am not in Friedman’s office.

Would you have traded Bobby Miller for Jordan Montgomery? Are you so sure that was not the deal? I don’t believe it was, but I am not the one that said that AF failed.

I never said this either. I never said they should have traded Miller for Montgomery. I have no idea if that was a possiblity or not. Yes he failed. The Dodgers were swept out of the playoffs when they did not have nearly enough starting pitching, and the rest of the team failed. THAT’S FAILURE

So tell us, who would Scott Andes sign, how much, who to release, who to trade for, what players are being traded. I promise I will not comment.

I have already given several names of players and pitchers whom I think can help the Dodgers. But what’s the point of me expanding on this if you are not going to comment?

and players who do not choke.

Players who don’t choke on the biggest stage would definitely help. Although who acquired those choking players?….Your buddy Friedman.

It was not the failure to get the players. It was the failure of the players who were there.

Yes and it was also a failure of management. An entire organizational failure from top to bottom. Not just Friedman.If these players choke every year, maybe they should find new players?

No disrespect intended Jeff. Take care.

Last edited 6 months ago by Scott Andes
Bumsrap

I hope Lux’ knee will allow him to play short to start the season. If not, maybe he starts out at third with Betts, Freeman, and Rojas filling out the infield. Sorry to repeat myself but my favorite infield would be Freeman, Betts, Lux, and Bobby Witt Jr.

I think the Dodgers should spend big on Yamamoto and no, I don’t know what spending big means. He would be my first choice to spend money on though.

I think Ohtani will wind up in Seattle. He won’t pitch until 2025 if ever again and by then the Dodgers will have May and Gonsolin back, not that they will ever pitch again.

Busch and one of Hernandez/Taylor would provide a cheap DH and if Kershaw and Muncy don’t return, the Dodgers could go both Montgomery. and Yamamoto.

Buehler, Yamamoto, Miller, Montgomery, Sheehan, Pepiot with Grove/Stone replacing Miller if he has to be included in the Witt Trade.

3B Lux
2B Betts
1B Freeman
SS Witt
C Smith
CF Outman
LF DeLuca
DH Busch/Taylor
RF Heyward

Singing the Blue

Where’s Joc?

Did we ever decide what we thought it would take to get the Royals to trade us their franchise player? You’ve almost got me convinced we should try.

Thanks for posting the link to that prospect list above. What a weird group, age wise. Looking forward to seeing how Quintero, Joendry Vargas, DePaula and Kendall George progress.

Your lineup: I don’t think Lux has the arm for 3B. Maybe we just need to include him in the Witt trade.

The TradeSimulator says Witt is the equal of the following group of players:
Cartaya/Rushing, Lux, Sheehan, Pages, Heubeck
I seriously doubt the Royals would do that trade, but you never know.

Sorry, but I’m not ready to have CT3 as half of the DH platoon. Also JHey isn’t an everyday player in my mind.

Here’s my lineup:
Mookie – 2B
Jung-hoo Lee – CF
Witt – SS
Freddie – 1B
Smith – C
Busch – DH
Vargas – 3B
Outman – LF
DeLuca – RF

Bench: Heyward, CT3, Feduccia, Rojas

As I look at what I’ve written, that’s a very risky 6-9 group, but hey, I’m in a gambling mood. If Vargas flubs his 3B opportunity, either Taylor or Rojas could take over. If DeLuca fails, we can insert Heyward or pick up another outfielder at the deadline. All four of those young guys have some real potential. We might as well find out what we’ve got there.

As you can see, I’ve left out Muncy, but that’s mainly because I’m having this conversation with you.

Last edited 6 months ago by Singing the Blue
Bumsrap

I put Taylor at DH to surprise you. I left Muncy out so you wouldn’t be surprised.

Lux might have to be included in a Witt deal but hopefully it would be Vargas instead. Maybe Lux will get more outs from his quickness than he would lose with a weaker arm than perfect arm for a third baseman. He could switch positions with Betts if necessary.

Betts, Freean, Witt, Smith, Lux, Taylor, Outman, DeLuca, Busch(Joc?)

If Lux is included in the Witt trade then try to sign Jung-hoo Lee.

Badger

That lineup could win 95 games, with good pitching. I really doubt KC will trade Witt. He’s not a FA until ’26.

I’ll bet you a 6 pack of Busch and a 3 pack of TaylorMade golf balls that Ohtani pitches again. There’s a time limit on accepting that bet.

Does anyone know how accurate trade simulator values on prospects actually are? Not asking for a friend, I’d like to know.

I think Jefe’s lineup would also win 94. But only if Betts leads off.

Oh, time’s up Fred.

Singing the Blue

I don’t think Trade Sim values are accurate on any type of player, but it’s fun to play around with it.

What’s that? You’ll Betts me a 6-pack of Busch and a 3-pack of TaylorMade golf balls?

Bobby

I think you should make that bet for Free, man!

Bumsrap

Bulldog humor.

Badger

Sure, I’ll make you the same Bett. And I’ll give you the same amount of time to accept.

Ohtani Will pitch again. (continuing the theme here)

I’m sure every GM has their own set of values on every player in professional baseball. I think they even have a system set up for several rounds of the draft. It’s an algorithmic world we live in. Yeah, we mess around with it here but, we’re amateurs. Ok, maybe Jeff D isn’t.

Speaking of of Jeff D, I’m still waiting for an answer to my tax question from two hours ago. It sounded to me like maybe Seager didn’t save as much money on taxes as everyone might think he did.

For the record, the shortstops I wanted were Lindor first, and then Bogaerts. Both were, in my opinion grossly overpaid. As was Seager.

Time’s up.

Last edited 6 months ago by Badger
Bobby

1) thank you for that, as it gives us a proper baseline for our assumptions

2) isn’t the no state income tax thing somewhat offset by other higher taxes in Texas, like property tax? Granted I”m sure it’s nowhere close to $2mil a year, but something?

Badger

88 games? What’s the difference for 81 games?

I get the point. $20 million is a lot to leave on the table. Does it make a difference in his lifestyle? Of course not. $300+ million is generational wealth. But, he’s from Carolina. Texas may be more to his liking.

Where does Bora$ live?

Last edited 6 months ago by Badger
Singing the Blue

Doesn’t Boras live somewhere near you in Orange County? I don’t mean he’s your next door neighbor. Assume he has beachfront property in Newport Beach.

Badger

How do you know I’m not living in Newport?

Never mind. Don’t answer that.

You’re right. Bora$ lives in Newport Beach. California is good enough for him, but not his client? Actually I think I was right about Corey. He’s not cut from California cloth. He’s a country boy that wants to play for and in front of his people.

Dionysus

This is embarrassingly bad commentary. You don’t know Seager.

Bluto

I think he and his family have a new home in Dallas? Perhaps the Texas home is just for during the season?

Badger

He and his wife went to the same high school in Kannapolis, outside Charlotte. She went to college in South Carolina I believe. His parents still live there. His brother bought a big house somewhere around there. They are all Carolinans. Who knows where they might want to raise a family, but he’s going to be in Texas a while. Long enough to call Dallas home? Not necessarily.

Badger

Yeah. That’s kinda what I figured. He got what he wanted, $300+ million, 10 years, and he’s playing in the south. Good for him and Madisyn.

Our 6 WAR slugger, from this area, is Freddie Freeman. Lead us to the promised land Freddie! Next year maybe?

Bumsrap

Only 95? I’m willing to replace Busch with Ohtani but I don’t think he would want to hit ninth.

Badger

Probably not. But, think of the strikes he would get hitting in front of Betts and Freeman.

Singing the Blue

A spot has just opened on the 40-man.
Apparently, the Dodgers put Suero on waivers, he wasn’t claimed, they outrighted him and he declared for free agency.

Badger

First winter move?

I figure the first big move is to sign Ohtani then there will be plenty of free agent role players who will want in. That’s what I figure. But I was never that good at figures. Well, that’s not entirely true….

Last edited 6 months ago by Badger
Singing the Blue

I think we’ll have to wait a little while for Ohtani to juggle all the offers he’ll get so I don’t expect you’ll see the Friedman-Ohtani presser the week after the WS ends.

On the other hand, he doesn’t strike me as the kind of person who would want to postpone his decision for too long, partially because the whole process might make him a bit uncomfortable and also because he might have some realization that he’ll be holding up a lot of other player deals while he makes up his mind.

My mama always told me not to generalize and that’s exactly what I’m doing here, but in my numerous trips to Japan during my working career, I found a culture that was far more considerate of the whole than of the individual person. A characteristic that we Americans seem to have forgotten (please excuse the socio-political comment).

Since Shohei is not using Boras as his agent, I would be extremely surprised if he doesn’t sign by the start of the winter meetings (December 4th this year in Nashville).

Bumsrap

Good comment Jeff. I hope you’re right.

Signing Ohtani would probably end Muncy’s time with the Dodgers.

Singing the Blue

Max’s contract won’t be a problem. They’ll exercise the option and then if they wind up signing Ohtani they can easily trade Muncy if they don’t want to put him back at third.

Bumsrap

If the Dodgers exercise the option on Mucy, can they trade him before June?

Singing the Blue

I’m thinking yes, but maybe Jeff could confirm.

I think the rule about no trade until June just applies to players who have voluntarily signed during the previous off season, but basically this would be a Dodger choice to pick up the option.

Singing the Blue

Bleacher Reports put out a column today suggesting a trade for each team.

The one for the Dodgers was Busch, Sheehan and Feduccia to the Brewers for Burnes (one year of control remaining).

Comments?

Singing the Blue

I’m not sure I’d do it if I couldn’t sign him to an extension as part of the deal.

With Woodruff out, they might actually feel this would be the time to re-do the roster (not a total rebuild) but move Burnes and Adames for younger, more controllable players.

Sheehan gives them a starter.
Busch gives them a guy they can use at first, second, third, outfield or DH.
Feduccia gives them a good second catcher option.

Still don’t think I’d do it if signing him to an extension wasn’t part of the deal.

Also, before last season I definitely would have kept Vargas over Busch. Now I’m torn, although probably Busch has more trade value at this point.

Last edited 6 months ago by Singing the Blue
Badger

An ace under 30. I’d do it, but as was mentioned, an extension is a must.

Singing the Blue

I would definitely trade for some players in their walk year.

It’s just as this trade was put forth, I think it’s a bit of an overpay for just one year of Burnes.

As time goes on I have this sinking feeling that we’re going to regret trading Busch if we do so.

By the way the Trade Simulator agrees that it would be an overpay, although not by a gigantic amount.

Badger

I feel basically the same as STB. In my opinion, in his walk year a player’s trade value is obviously reduced. But for an ace? You have to consider it. I don’t think I do that particular one with Sheehan in it unless I knew Burnes was open to becoming the ace of our staff for at least 5 years. Ok, maybe 3, but I doubt he agrees to 3.

Bumsrap

If the Dodgers sign Yamamoto and Montgomery then they don’t need Burnes. If they extend him even for 3 years, can they still afford the future contracts of Buehler, Smith, and maybe a few others already on the team? Would extending Burnes keep them from signing Yamamoto and Ohtani?

I like the current and longer term payroll with Buehler, Yamamoto, Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan, Grove, and Stone. And if they can add superstar Witt at pre-arbitration salary they will have a lot of payroll flexibility.

Badger

Can any of those guys get close to 200 innings? 180? 150?

With the way our pitchers are used, much of which is out of necessity, the more starters we have available the better. Obviously we won’t pay for a lot of expensive FAs, but if we keep all of ours they will likely get work throughout the year.

Badger

Do you think any of those guys would repeat those numbers with the Dodgers?

All the ML pitchers but Burnes are over 30. Yamamoto, 25, might be the guy that could get 180 with the Dodgers.

Badger

It’s an interesting theory, but the problem I saw was the Dodgers not able to hit strikes, some right down the pipe.

Badger

Not in my mind. They were swinging at them, they just weren’t hitting them.

Bumsrap

Max can say that but he was up there hacking and that didn’t work for him.

Singing the Blue

He’ll be this year’s Heaney/Anderson. Andrew is salivating as we speak.

Badger

I agree. Lauer had a couple of good years in between not so good years. I suppose it depends on what his spin rate is on his out pitch. He’s worth a look.

Bobby

I trust us to find these types more than I do other things. I’m sure we’ll find another Brasier type for 2024

Singing the Blue

I sure hope we keep Brasier now that we’ve found him. We tend to let these guys go because we won’t match other offers but we have enough other things to worry about this winter. Keep him. Pay him.

Bumsrap

What about Lauer over Stone or Grove or Hurt?

Singing the Blue

I’m of the mind that the brain trust has decided that Grove and Hurt will be relievers going forward. So basically that leaves Stone vs Lauer.

I think Stone has the higher ceiling and the lower floor. So much for elevator talk.

Bumsrap

You keep pushing all the right buttons.

Badger

Push the right buttons? Sadly for me, I do most of my proof reading after I hit the Post Cement button.

Bluto

Phillies bats have gone cold. I revise my earlier prediction, Dodgers could’ve beat either NLCS team.

Rangers in danger of blowing it with that massive payroll.

Badger

Houston’s payroll is up there too, but, Texas’ is a bit higher.

The risk of asking your closer get 4 outs.

Bluto

So true! IIRC, the Seattle players hated that move almost immediately.

not that you should listen to players too much, but it’s rare they were that vocal

Singing the Blue

Hadn’t thought about the Phillies and Hader but it makes absolute sense. No way they’re going to want to have Kimbrel as the closer next year. It absolutely seems like a Dombrowski move just waiting to happen.

Bumsrap

Kimbrel is reminding me why I am glad he wasn’t a 2023 Dodger.

Bluto

Ask and you shall receive:

FINAL: Diamondbacks 6, Phillies 5

Arizona doesn’t match up to Philadelphia in talent, pedigree or experience.

That doesn’t make a damn bit of difference in October. Two straight days, the Diamondbacks beat the Phillies’ bullpen. And suddenly the NLCS is tied at two games each

From Passan

Badger

So, Phillies in 6 instead of 4?

I watched a lot of that game. Yes, the Phillies are the more talented team, by a wide margin. That said, Go Dbacks!

Badger

I think you’re right. As long as Kimbrel is pitching, the dbacks have a chance to score.

He had a decent year. Maybe Prior can help him get back to his 2014 level. 😜

Bumsrap

We have been talking about what 2024 might look like and which players might get extensions to keep them Dodgers maybe past 2027.

  1. Trade for Burnes and extend him through 2027/8
  2. Sign Ohtani through 2027/31
  3. Extend Smith through 2029/31
  4. Sign Yamamoto through 2029/31
  5. Sign Montgomery through 2027/8
  6. Extend Buehler through 2030
  7. Sign Kershaw through 2024
  8. Trade for Witt and extend through 2034 (ok, just me talking)

I’m curious what the 2025 payroll would look like.

Badger

$290 million.

Bumsrap

Thank you. I think it would be more though.

Badger

Yeah, probably. I just threw out a number.

Badger

Jeff, is it possible to make a slight adjustment to the mechanics of this site.

I see new the recent comments and if I want to read what Bum just posted, and of course I always do, I can’t click on that recent comment link and go directly to it, I have to search for it. When we get as many posts as we have now it makes it difficult.

Last edited 5 months ago by Badger
Bumsrap

I like that there will be a Bumsrap button at the top of the comments so everybody can jump to my rap.

Hello, is it me you’re looking for? I can see it in your eyes I can see it in your smile You’re all I’ve ever wanted And my arms are open wide ‘Cause you know just what to say And you know just what to do And I want to tell you so much

Bumsrap

Oh, I forgot — sarcasm!

Badger

You left off the end of stanza Lionel. Why is that?

Bumsrap

I love you Badger

Badger

There it is.

Bluto

This would be nice

Singing the Blue

Another screw up by that incompetent fool Andrew Friedman. By not having the Dodgers re-sign Kimbrel for 2023 he is ruining the Phillies chances of making the World Series this year.

Badger

Perspective Jefe. And something I certainly hadn’t considered.

Bumsrap

AZ again with 50K fans attending today. I sure hope their success leads to fan support for the rest of this decade.

Singing the Blue

I hope you’re wrong, Fred. Too many people in the pool when we clinch there in 2024.

Badger

I doubt it Fred. A lot of Phillies fans filling the park tonight.

Bluto

Third time through the order does in Gallen.

Badger

Even the ace is a 5 inning pitcher in the playoffs. Doesn’t matter if you only score 1.

Last edited 5 months ago by Badger
Bluto

I have been saying this for years.

of course there are exceptions, but….

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