I am about as excited with this team going into the season as I was for the 2017 team and 2020 team. Are they perfect? Hardly. But they have certainly addressed their primary concerns with Starting Pitching, and the need for a RH bat who lights up LHP.
We have already had multiple writeups on both Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I am bullish on both. Probably more bullish on Glasnow than most LAD fans.
With the loss of JDM as a RH bat, the Dodgers needed another big RH bat. We know that the Dodgers signed the best and 3rd best free agents (per MLBTradeRumors), and paid more than $1B for their services. Now they have signed the third best position player free agent, and best RH bat in the free agent class. While Matt Chapman may be more highly ranked by some, that is more for his outstanding defense. But his offense does not favorably compare to Teoscar Hernández.
Hernández is one of the best hitters in all of baseball against left-handed pitching, something the Dodgers desperately needed.
His numbers against LHP since 2020:
- 2020: .275 AVG, .935 OPS, 145 wRC+
- 2021: .372 AVG, 1.151 OPS, 203 wRC+
- 2022: .286 AVG, .978 OPS, 176 wRC+
- 2023: .287 AVG, .817 OPS, 120 wRC+
How do you not get excited about those numbers? Even looking at last year’s numbers, he posted a 120 wRC+ against southpaws in what is surely his worst season. 120 is still very good. I think the Dodgers will take that for a “down” year.
As indicated above, his numbers took a bit of a hit last season, as he hit .258 with an OPS of .741. However, he struggled at T-Mobile Park, which isn’t a hitter friendly park by any means. His home slash line was .217/.263/.380/.643. On the road, Hernández hit .295 with an .830 OPS and 126 wRC+. Teoscar will always be a strikeout hitter. Although, he cut down his strikeout rate to 27% in the second half, compared to 32% the first half.
Eliminating the 2020 season, Hernández has hit at least 20 home runs in five consecutive seasons. Even in 2020 he hit 16 HRs, which put him well on pace to exceed 20 HRs. Considering his 162-game average since the start of the 2018 season, he’s averaging 32 home runs and 96 RBI over a full season.
I think these are better numbers than any player that we have talked about as a potential RH bat. He is a one year only OF, so he is not blocking anyone. Not that there is anyone in the system to be blocked.
While his overall numbers were down dramatically in 2023, Teoscar struggled at T-Mobile Park, which isn’t a hitter friendly park by any means. His home slash line was .217/.263/.380/.643. On the road, Hernández hit .295 with an .830 OPS and 126 wRC+.
In the final two months of the season, Hernández hit his stride by hitting .294/.339/.491/.830 over 54 games. He had 12 doubles, 10 homers and 34 RBI in 54 games.
Hernández has one all-star selection and has 2 Silver Slugger awards (2020 and 2021).
Defensively, Teoscar had 12 assists, tied for third in MLB among outfielders. For his career, Hernández has 58 assists. He is not a GG, but he is more than just a competent OF. His OAA was 0 last year, while his DRS was +1. Hernández/Outman/Heyward is a very good defensive OF.
Hernández is a MASSIVE upgrade over David Peralta from last season.
With Hernández, the Dodgers now have 5 players with more than 26 HRs from last year in their lineup: Ohtani, Betts, Muncy, Freddie, Hernández. Outman had 23, so he is just on the outside looking in. Smith next at 19.
So while some may focus on the strikeouts and the first half of last year, I will preliminarily judge the signing while considering Hernández’s 2018-2023 in total, and his 2nd half 2023 numbers.
From a team that won 100 games in 2023, there is a starting pitching upgrade, and an overall offensive upgrade. And it still feels like there is more to come.
Finally – from The Dodgers:
The more I read about Teoscar, the more I like him for the Dodgers.
Dodgers Digest has a report about the international signing period that suggests the Dodgers may be holding off a bit to prepare for Roki Sasaki. It had me thinking that maybe AF won’t be going after Luzardo, Burnes or Cease because Sasaki is the priority. When 2025 comes around, will the Dodgers have a six-man rotation that is half Japanese? As the writer for DD suggested, Ohtani might only be the third best of the groupl
Like what AF has done this off season. Dodgers appear to have an excellent roster, but I still think we need one more SP so we don’t have to lean too heavily on Walker or Sheehan early in the season.
How about a one year “pillow contract” contract for Ryu or Paxton?
Interesting tidbit from The Athletic (Rosenthal)
Before trading infielder Michael Busch to the Chicago Cubs, the Dodgers included him in some of their offers to the White Sox for Cease, according to sources briefed on the discussions.
The Dodgers’ interest in Cease was stronger before they signed Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They continued talking to the White Sox afterward, but their trade with the Cubs indicated they were looking for future value. They discussed flipping Cease to another club — the Orioles were one possibility — and acquiring prospects that way.
Busch and reliever Yency Almonte brought back two players the Dodgers do not yet need to add to their 40-man roster, left-hander Jackson Ferris and outfield prospect Zyhir Hope. MLB.com installed Ferris, 19, as the No. 5 prospect in the Dodgers’ talent-rich system. Busch, now the Cubs’ No. 3 prospect, could be the team’s regular first baseman in 2024.
Hernandez
Post season cumulative line: .200.294.600.894 with 2 home runs in 15 at bats.
2023 line vs righties: .249.305.413.718
2023 scoring position: .300.337.453.790
Max Muncy 2023 line vs lefties: .155.263.378.641
Miguel Rojas 2023 line vs lefties: .286.331.406.737
Hernandez looks like a full time player and he and maybe a platoon of Muncy and Rojas at third would improve the Dodgers both defensively and offensively against lefties.
I don’t think the Dodgers really need another SP. Right now it’s:
Yama
Glasnow
Beuhler
Miller
Sheehan/Stone
Yarbrough if you need a leftie/6 man rotation
Going into the season the bottom of the rotation order is pretty weak, but the point is to peak at the end of the season. I would expect Kershaw to be back in August and Buehler to be healthy. If he has his 98 MPH fastball back is anyone’s guess, and he was pretty mediocre last year before we went under the knife and had many of us speculating on what the problem was.
I think Miller is poised to break out. His Stuff+ metrics are right up there with Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole. Based on his stuff, he’s elite. He throws strikes. He just needs to put it together.
You need to be able to see what you have with Sheehan and Stone. If they struggle a bit at first, that’s something the Dodgers can weather with their offense, at least for the first half. The Dodgers bullpen looks to be a strength, and it’s pretty deep. They should be able to pick up any slack from weak/short outings by Sheehan/Stone/Yarbrough.
If the Dodgers need another stud starter, Burnes will be cheaper at the post ASB trade deadline than he is now, and if the Brewers are floundering they’ll want to unload him. Right now they’re less inclined to sell unless the package is ridiculous.
I don’t see any real challenge to the Dodgers winning the division again pretty easily. It’s just a matter of the team you bring to the playoffs, and in the playoffs you really only need 3-4 starters, not 5-6. Glasnow, Yama, Buehler/Miller, and a healthy Kershaw are fine.
MLB trade rumors has Dustin May returning to the Dodgers mid season. If so, will it be as a starter or as a reliever?
It’s safe to assume that the Dodgers will continue to monitor the market for any bigger-name possibilities, yet Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles might now be “looking for future value” in any further trades, such as Thursday’s swap with the Cubs that saw the Dodgers acquire two teenage prospects in exchange for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte.
In one particularly novel scenario, Rosenthal reports that the Dodgers even considered acquiring Cease from the White Sox and then flipping him to a third team. The specifics of this arrangement aren’t clear, yet it would’ve been a fascinating way for both the Dodgers and White Sox to obtain some high-level young talent for Cease, in a mix-and-match of prospects each team might’ve had their eye on in the Dodgers’ organization or within the pipeline of whoever the third club involved might’ve been.
Busch was also part of some of the Dodgers’ offers for Cease, Rosenthal writes, so the young infielder might’ve found himself on the south side of Chicago rather than landing in Wrigleyville.
Another words, The Dodgers, for those whom do not wish to read this entire post, might have wished to acquire Cease for the sole purpose of acquiring Cease so as to flip him (as one would wish to acquire a house so as to flip it at a future date, & yes the why is known to us all, or so I hope) for future assets much like they did with Andrew Heaney. I got no problem with this, especially since the the Dodgers reacquired Andrew at a later date at a cheaper rate. So, for those who don’t get it, The Dodgers don’t value Cease as the White Sox might see him valued at currently & the current market but see a future value in him and wish to acquire him on the cheap far further down the line. This makes sense. Why buy high when an org can buy low.
This was a travel day and a soccer tournament. Just got home, and waaaaaaayyyyy too tired to try to do anything. Not much else going on anyway.
Excellent analysis Jeff.
Teoscar Hernandez definitely provides a strong bat against LHP that was lost when JD Martinez was let go. The Dodgers scored 906 runs in 2023, the second most runs in the MLB behind the Braves, and the most in LA Dodger history. The offense was fantastic last year, and that was with injured/ineffective hitters like Peralta, Rojas, Vargas and Barnes all getting significant at bats.
Even though JDM was great last year, Ohtani should be an upgrade this year, Teoscar should be an upgrade to Peralta, Lux should hit better than Rojas, and Vargas should be healthier. On paper, the Dodgers should have an even better offense than last year which was the best in LA Dodger history.
A couple of days ago, Bear wrote a great piece about Frank Howard, and in it, it was mentioned that after raising six children, he and his wife divorced. That seems incredibly sad to me, so I dug a little deeper. I found an article in the NY TImes and it said this in his obituary:
Very interesting! If someone else posted this, I apologize for repeating it.
Here was another tidbit about Hondo and Ted Williams from the NY Times:
Power rankings:
1. Ohtani [80 grade]
2. Teoscar [dude is strong]
3. Muncy [Maximus Muncius]
4. Betts [game power is real]
5. Outman [imagine if he took a full swing!]
I looked at the rosters of the Dodgers affiliates and I saw something I found interesting. Yenier Hernandez is at high A Great Lakes and he is listed as an outfielder. Not a C or an infielder.
Update on the International Free Agent front:
As long reported, Dodgers have signed top 17-year-old shortstop prospect Emil Morales.
As mentioned (by me!) above Dodgers also signed Rafy Peguero, OF also from the DR (anyone wonder why so many signing from the DR and not Haiti?)
The next four signing are all from Venezuela:
Yojackson Laya (SS)
Erni Orellana (OF)
Carlos Sardinas (RHP)
David Romero (SS)
Three other, unconfirmed, names are:
Heudy Peña
Alexis Dominguez
Euri Rosa
Dodgers also signed a Ugandan!
Allan Ajoti (C)
Go to MiLB.com. go to the Dodger affiliates, click on the Loons, and check out their roster. Fernandez is listed as an outfielder.
Full and complete list of Dodgers International Signings:
C Eduardo Rojas, Venezuela
C Euri Rosa, Dominican Republic
C Francisco Espinoza, Venezuela
C Allan Atoji, Uganda
SS Emil Morales, Dominican Republic
SS Yojackson Laya, Venezuela
SS Heudy Peña, Dominican Republic
IF Reyli Mariano, Dominican Republic
IF David Romero, Venezuela
OF Rafy Peguero, Dominican Republic
OF Leider Padilla, Venezuela
OF Erny Orellana, Venezuela
LHP Michael Ramírez, Venezuela
RHP Carlos Sardina, Venezuela
RHP Angel Ramirez, Mexico
RHP Christian Muñiz, Mexico
RHP Axel Perez, Dominican Republic
RHP Alexis Dominguez, Dominican Republic
RHP Jose Lopez, Venezuela