IMO, because the playoffs have been expanded to 12 teams there are a great many more teams that believe they can be the next Arizona D-backs or Baltimore Orioles. I would include Texas except they have spent north of $600MM the last two years in FA, but the bulk of their core is home grown or early career trades.
Being honest, while they did get some very timely hitting in October, Arizona built their team on speed, defense, and a rebuilt bullpen. They only had two SP going into the playoffs, and Brandon Pfaadt found himself to make it three. Arizona did it in a very tough NL West.
Both Central Divisions are winnable by all five teams Yes even Pittsburgh and KC. If Arizona can win with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as the two known starters, why can’t Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech be that duo for CWS. At least they want to start the year with a chance, and see if Michael Soroka or Jared Shuster can give them 4 very reliable October pitchers. If not, Cease can be moved at the deadline.
Same in Milwaukee. Are the Brewers out of it with Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Wade Miley. They believe very highly in Adrian Houser, and Colin Rea has been on the verge of stardom for a while. CWS and Milwaukee have their Aces. They are in no hurry to get rid of theirs.
Detroit could be this year’s D-backs and sneak into the playoffs. I have brought his name up a lot the last two years, but they have Tarik Skubal who could be in the CY discussions by the end of the year. He is backed up with Kenta Maeda and Matt Manning in their rotation. And they are hoping for a clean injury free year from their uber pitching prospect, Casey Mize. Why not run it out to see where they are in late July.
KC believes they are close enough to challenge in the AL Central. Cole Ragans has become their Ace. They are looking for a bounce back year from Brady Singer and an injury free year for Daniel Lynch. All three are former 1st round picks. They have $30MM to spend, and they can find some decent pitching with that. They are hoping that their 24 year old Venezuelan LHSP, Angel Zerpa, finally emerges this year. And they have Jordan Lyles to eat innings.
Cleveland has more pitching than they know what to do with. Well they do know what to do with it, but they just cannot find that OF with slug. Forget what the trade simulator says. The simulator says that Maddux Bruns (5.7) straight up for Shane Bieber (5.8) is fair. I read somewhere that the Dodgers should include Jose Ramos in a package. Why? If a team wants him and believes he can make a difference at the MLB level, then they will wait until the Rule 5 draft and take him for $100K. Deluca? Cleveland wants an everyday difference making OF not another platoon OF. They could go back and sign Michael Brantley on a return, and keep Bieber. I cannot see AF trading Andy Pages straight up for Shane Bieber, much less packaging him. Bieber is not in the Burnes, Cease, Glasnow aisle.
As I said yesterday, I quit trying to noodle what Tampa Bay might do. It is possible that they will trade 1 or two of Tyler Glasnow, Isaac Paredes, and Randy Arozarena. I have heard that Brandon Lowe is also available. The AL East is a lot different than the AL Central. It is going to be hard for TB to stay near the top without McClanahan and with Toronto, Baltimore, NYY, and Boston all looking for significant improvements. They do have Shane Baz coming back, but how good will he be first year back? I can see Caleb Ferguson going to TB in a trade. He has shown he can be a decent opener, something TB loves to employ. TB has one catcher on the 40 man, and no real catcher prospect. Their only catcher prospect on their top 30 is in High A (Dominic Keegan #9). Austin Barnes would be a perfect back up catcher for Tampa Bay. Diego Cartaya would be a nice target for TB. The Dodgers actually do have the players to match up with TB. With Arozarena having 3 control years, Andy Pages becomes a nice target for TB, and the Dodgers would be more than willing to move Pages if they had Arozarena for three years.
I think it is more likely that CWS, Milwaukee, Detroit, KC, and other mid-tier teams staying away from trading their top of the rotation pitching. They want to at least give their players and fans the thought that going into the season they have a shot. If not, there is always the trade deadline where contending teams are more desperate.
Interesting and formative. Thanks
Mark at LADT likes to say that AF is playing chess while most others are playing checkers. I think AF is playing Jenga.
Elite pitchers nearing free agency on small market or lower division clubs are likely the ones that will be traded. Some wealthy teams will likely overpay for those players. That is just how it is. The same is true for those handful of free agent players currently getting all the press. Only a few teams will be involved in these signings. We are lucky to be one of those teams
I believe it’s impossible to build a team in winter for a tournament the following October. We had a team that should have easily defeated the team in their own division they had clobbered in their head to head meetings and had beat them by over two weeks in the standings. We had a powerful offense lead by future Hall of Famers Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and another future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw on the mound. What happened is well documented. All three of those players failed miserably.
We will again be a team that in Spring and Summer scores a lot of runs and will again be favored to win our Division. If we continue to score in the postseason tournament we will have a chance. There are no guarantees the Dodgers will be a successful Fall baseball team and nothing they do this winter will change that fact.
The “Fall Classic”, with 12 teams in the running, maybe more in the future, will remain a crap shoot, with inferior teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks making the finals on occasion. Nothing can be done about that. The years of the two best teams meeting for the Championship are long past.
So for now we continue to wait to see if we can outbid the other three or four teams in the running for Ohtani. I think we will get him but even if we don’t, as I said we will again be the favorites to win the West and try it again in a roll the dice post season tournament.
On a personal note, it’s my opinion winter blows. With the exception of my downhill skiing days I’ve never been a fan of winter. Winter is basketball season, an indoor sport. I’ve never been a big fan of indoor sports. So these winter days I wait for weekend football games, I wait for the Dodgers to do what they will do and I wait for Spring Training. I wait. And wait some more.
Heading for California in the morning. Will check on all the in-action before I go. Got a lot to do today to get ready to go.
These meetings might be setting a record for non action. Bieber and Clase being shopped by Cleveland.
Now that the Yankees have their perennial batting champion they won’t need Soto anymore. Looks like SD missed their chance.
Your thoughts about how we might match up with the Rays are very thought provoking, Jeff. Maybe something happens there.
The upside to the lack of activity at the meetings is that the time between the meetings and New Years will be much busier and more entertaining than usual.
Editorial and venting:
Joel Sherman said something this AM that was of interest. NYY is disgusted with how they ended up last year and are out to become the Yankees again and acquire players. They want Juan Soto and are first up in the Yamamoto meetings. NYY wants both. How many times has NYY gone hard at who they wanted and come up 2nd. To Badgers post, maybe you do not win October in the Winter, but you can lose it. The Dodgers have proven that the last two years when they decided not to improve their team in the Winter or trade deadline. If the Dodgers do not get one or more importantly two top of the rotation pitchers, they will be relying on luck in October. Yes they will score runs. What did that do for them in the last two NLDS when they went to bat with a wet towel in their hands and could not hit anyone in while being scoring position. How much better would we all feel if Corbin Burnes and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were the 1-2 in the rotation.
I do not care if the Dodgers have to give up Vargas or Burnes, Sheehan or Frasso or Stone or Cartaya or Rushing. I will not lose one minute of sleep if Gavin Stone goes to Milwaukee and becomes their #4 and wins the ROY, when we get to see Corbin Burnes toeing the rubber in Game 1 of the WS to be followed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2. How great would the rotation be if Buehler, Miller, and Pepiot were #3, #4, and #5.
Who really cares which of one Sheehan, Frasso, Stone goes to Milwaukee. Ohtani, May, and Gonsolin will be back in 2025, and the Dodgers would be very high on the Burnes and Buehler re-sign agenda. Max Fried will be a FA and maybe he is the one who comes home.
The Dodgers will not always have Mookie and Freddie to carry them. How many more seasons will they be at the pinnacle of their trade. Hit it while they are with the Dodgers.
If the Dodgers have to rely on openers and piggyback pitchers next October, IMO they will have a quick exit once again in the playoffs.
The Dodgers have a chance to really improve their chances in 2024,and have the cash and the prospects to make it happen. Ohtani, Burnes, and Yamamoto may not guarantee an October win, but not getting them they could lose it.
It is not out of the realm of possibilities that the Giants come away with Yamamoto, Bellinger, and Matt Chapman this Winter. How good would Webb and Yamamoto look at the top of their rotation. What if Burnes goes to SD. Burnes, Darvish, and Musgrove with their offensive potential? Arizona knows who they are, and if they add a #4 like Seth Lugo, how tough will they be. They are so young and good.
How confident are you if you have to face Yamamoto in a must win game with a piggyback of Stone and Frasso?
Maybe AF should play a little more checkers. Then maybe he will be able to make a move and say “King Me”.
I think that there’s been a delay in the trade market for upper level pitchers because their current teams are waiting for a free agent pitcher or two to sign to establish a market value, at least in part.
Mad Dog ripping Ohtani a new orifice. Alana ripping him too. The secrecy is driving everyone nuts. Mad Dog all over Gomes for throwing Roberts under the bus on TV yesterday after he admitted the Dodgers had met with Ohtani earlier in the week. Ohtani has never played on an Angels team that has had a winning record. Of course, that means little to the Dodgers who perennially win more than they lose. Soto trade talks between Yankees and Padres heating up. If Ohtani goes to Toronto, the other main player in all of this, fine with me, resign JD to DH, sign Gurriel to play left field, trade for Burnes or Cease, no Adames or Yelich, and maybe even kick the tires on Bieber and Clase. Sign one of the fringe reclamation projects and the team is ready to go come spring.
Yankees have lost 3 players in the rule 5 draft, the Red Sox 2. The Dodgers surprisingly have not lost anyone in the major league side of the draft.
Heyward signing now official. Roster stands at 40.
Got a 1965 Mantle in the mail yesterday. Sweet card. 1914 Ruth rookie sold for 7.2 million. Damn!
I can’t tell if specific names being associated with a rumored trade signifies anything, but….
:According to multiple sources, one name that will not be moved in a potential deal is right-hander Bobby Miller, who the #Dodgers have no interest in moving. The #WhiteSox have been looking to add arms this winter.
Busch, Sheehan
For
Cease and Jake Eder
It works for both me and the trade generator!
So, funny story: Early last week, I scheduled with my season ticket rep to stop by Dodger Stadium last Friday, Dec 1, to grab my season ticket holder gift and a few other items from the Dodger offices (over on the Lodge level down the left field line).
My rep called me Wed or Thurs last week and said she needed to cancel Friday (didn’t give me a reason why), and asked if I could come this week instead.
Today Bill Plunkett just tweeted:
“Today’s meaningless nugget of Shohei Ohtani news — his meeting with Dodgers was Friday afternoon at Dodger Stadium. Stadium tours were ppd/cancelled, team store was closed so no accidental sightings.”
I guess I now why I was told to stay away!!
I always liked the way he played the game.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/vic-davalillo-passes-away.html
Starting to see more significant transactions with the Soto trade, Rodríguez signing and Candelario signing. It now looks like Friedman made a mistake by not agreeing to add on an option Year for Rodríguez at the trade deadline. They would have had Erod for the playoffs plus locked him up for 4 years and $69 million compared to the $80 million that Arizona paid.
Pretty surprising that the Dbacks added a top starter before the Dodgers. Now 3 top starters have signed: Nola, Gray, and Rodríguez. And 4 top FA starters remain: Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery, Imanaga,
The rumors are that Yamamoto may sign for $250-$300 million, while Snell and Monty will be $150-$200 million. Only Imanaga may sign for under $100 million. With so many teams still looking for pitching, the Dodgers will have difficulty signing one of those guys. Yamamoto likely goes to NY, Boston, or SF. Monty to Texas. Snell to ATL, Sea, or SF. Imanaga may be the best option for the Dodgers.
In the meantime, the Dodger focus seems to be on Ohtani, the $600 million DH. Seems crazy to put so many resources in one player, when the major need in 2024 is starting pitching. And Ohtani sets his own rules. Telling management what they can say, dictating media schedule, demanding a 6 man rotation, and monopolizing the DH spot every day. But as Jeff has said, this is a business decision, not a baseball one.
After the Soto trade to NY:
“The Braves are +650 to win the Fall Classic, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers at 7-1, the Rangers and Houston Astros at 9-1 and the Philadelphia Phillies at 10-1. The Arizona Diamondbacks head into the offseason at 25-1 to win next year’s World Series.”
Yankees are 17-2.
I guess signing Heyward and Kelly kept us right up there with the odds makers.
If the Dodgers sign Ohtani then I would like it if the Dodgers were able to trade Muncy for Burnes. The Brewers need a first baseman. I would let Rojas play 3rd base.
2B Betts
1B Freeman
DH Ohtani
C Smith
CF Outman
LF Pederson/Taylor
RF Heyward/DeLuca
3B Rojas
SS Lux
Burnes, Buehler, Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan, Stone, Grove
This is great: