IMO, the two best and most complete offenses belong to the Dodgers and the Braves. Lets take a look.
For this comparison, I am only looking at offensive value. I am using the FanGraphs (OFF) metric for comparison purposes. I am sure that MLB Network’s Brian Kenney would not stop at this metric for his Shredder, but then again he is making a lot more $$$ than me and can afford to follow and comment on all of the algorithms. I am also using Steamer projections. I have no idea if they are more meaningful than ZIPS.
For those who want an even more detailed explanation and calculation, here you go…
https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/off/
I could have used wRC+, but (IMO) base running is part of offense, and wRC+ does not measure base running.
The Dodgers and the Braves have been the two best offenses for the last several years and 2024 figures to be more of the same. They are overwhelmingly the two best offenses in MLB.
The next closest starting lineup is Houston, whereas NYY has a better graded overall offense because of their superior bench (or Houston’s underwhelming bench). The Juan Soto addition really pushed NYY near the top of the AL offensive supremacy.
See the chart below for some of the top 2023 offenses and the 2024 projections.
Besides the Dodgers, only the O’s do not have a player in the starting lineup that is not a negative OFF metric. They just do not have a Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr., Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, or Yordan Álvarez in the lineup. The O’s bench is grading out better than NYY.
One team that surprised me (although perhaps it should not have) is Philadelphia. They have the stars in Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, but they have 5 out of 9 players in the projected starting lineup that grades out negatively with this metric. Besides their starting pitching, they have arguably the best (without doing all the research) clutch player today…Bryce Harper. Career WRISP = .292/.438/.512/.949. Career WRISP/w 2 outs = .281/.465/.499/.964. Career Playoffs = .276/.383/.613/.996. Kyle Schwarber also comes to play in the playoffs. Starting pitching and clutch hitters bode well for a good playoff run.
In the NL West, San Diego has the 2nd best offense which makes sense. With Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Ha-Seong Kim, the team is going to score runs. Their OFF total is 62.0 for the starting lineup and 49.3 for the full position player roster. It is hard to finalize their final grade, since it is possible that the Padres will still add an OF and/or DH (once Machado gets back to 3B). Their LF and CF are definite positions that need a significant upgrade.
The Giants are also a team that does not appear to be finished offensively. They are currently looking at Jorge Soler, and are still tied to Matt Chapman. Presently they have one of the weaker offensive teams with a starting lineup OFF of 19.5, and a full roster total of 16.9. Neither Soler nor Chapman are going to change the Giants outlook that much. Their highest graded offensive player? Jung-Hoo Lee.
Perhaps the worst offensive team in all of MLB is Colorado. Eight out of nine starting lineup players have a negative grade. Only Nolan Jones grades out positively and did so with a 39. Colorado has a -37.1 grade for the starting lineup and -50.8 full roster.
Projections tend to spark commentary…some find them helpful while some find them rather insignificant. If you stay away from the individual numbers and look at the team totals, you can get a feel for the better offenses. Just for kicks, I decided to look at both LAD and ATL with wRC+ and fWAR.
wRC+ simply grades the hitting component of the offense. This is another FanGraphs metric which is defined as follows:
fWAR takes into the full offensive (including baserunning) and defensive metrics to calculate a total.
- Position players – To calculate WAR for position players you want to take their Batting Runs, Base Running Runs, and Fielding Runs above average and then add in a positional adjustment, a small adjustment for their league, and then add in replacement runs so that we are comparing their performance to replacement level rather than the average player. After that, you simply take that sum and divide it by the runs per win value of that season to find WAR. The simple equation looks something like this:
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
Both of these metrics continue to show that the Dodgers and Braves are very close in terms of projectable talent, and they are ahead of the class. At some point I will look at the comparisons for pitching projections.
Here is how the rest of the NL West stacks up in wRC+ and fWAR.
It’s not perfect, it may not even be meaningful to many. But projections clearly put the Dodgers at the top of the NL West again, and should be in the NLCS against Atlanta. Both are once again huge favorites to reach the NLCS. Has not worked out the last two years…maybe this year.
Nicely done Jeff.
It’s meaningful to me. I love reading this stuff. I was just looking at fangraphs team WAR and saw the Braves at 53 and the Dodgers at 51. If there is any sense to the playoffs this year, those two teams will meet in the NLCS. But as we know from past results, the short series playoffs are roll of the dice.
The results of 162 games will produce the best teams and align them in brackets that allegedly give advantage to those best teams. We know advantage doesn’t exist in a short series. What to do about that has been discussed, I’ve read some good ideas in here, but there will be no significant changes in MLB scheduling. At this point I think the season could be shortened back to 154, or even 148 games with more attention given to playoff structures. That isn’t going to happen.
All the good teams, and we know who they are, are adding depth to their rosters in hopes that starting lineups will remain healthy and reasonably rested for October. Good luck with that. Roster expansion should be discussed, including a flexible floating roster for additional arms during the second half of the season.
The West will finish as it did last year. Nobody will overtake the Dodgers. The playoffs? Great seasons can end abruptly.
I do look for the Padres to surprise – sometimes less is more! They will likely be better than last year. Key an eye on them in the rear-view mirror. If the D-Backs can get another bat (like JDM), they will be better. I believe that every team that plays the Dodgers this year will be playing like it is game seven of the World Series, so there is that!
Keith Law:
Keith Law came out with “10 Players who just missed the Top 100” today, and Diego Cartaya was on it. That gives the Dodgers 6 prospects in the Top 110:
25 – Josue DePaula
33 – River Ryan
86 – Dalton Rushing
95 – Gavin Stone
99 – Thayron Liranzo
103- Diego Cartaya
That’s still pretty damn good.
Here’s what Law said about Cartaya:
Law said that Gavin Stone was tipping his pitches last year. He also indicated that Rushing may have trouble with velocity and that he is more concerned about Rushings bat. On Ryan he said: “Ryan could be a No. 2 starter, and while I don’t think he’s ready for a major-league role just yet, he’s advanced so quickly he could easily make another big leap this spring and see Chavez Ravine before September.” On DePaula, he wrote: “The combination of bat speed, selectivity, present power, and big physical projection could make him among the best hitters in baseball at his peak, and if so, whether it’s at first base or in an outfield corner won’t really matter.
Tipping pitches? If that’s true, why didn’t the Dodgers know it?
Sometimes your own team is the last to know.
I find that oversight unacceptable. Your staff, including catchers and bullpen coaches, should be the first to know.
That said, the problem must be remedied by now. Gavin Stone in the rotation or in the pen?
Rotation.
Who said they didn’t?
How could they not?
Muscle memory and bad habits are hard to break in normal situations, imagine in not-so-normal situations.
I like that report about Ryan.
Progress, I’ve read somewhere, is not linear. Perhaps Ryan is positioned for a great leap forward. I hope that Sheehan, Stone, Ryan, Knack and ??? have a robust competiton for the final two spots in the six-man rotation.
While I enjoy the prospect rankings, I think we all understand that it doesn’t always translate to performance. I believe that Outman made only one Top 100 list–and pretty far down at that–before he won the CF job and finished third in ROY voting.
Oh, mlb.com just had a report on their “hits and misses” in 20 years of prospect rankings. And it begins with this sad story:
Greg Miller, LHP, Dodgers (No. 3 in 2004): On our very first Top 50, Miller was considered the top pitching prospect in the game, ranking ahead of Zack Greinke and Edwin Jackson. He was coming off a huge year in which he got to Double-A at age 18, but then he missed all of 2004 with two shoulder surgeries and never amassed 100 innings in a season again, with injuries and control issues derailing him. The Dodgers released him in 2009 and he never pitched in affiliated ball again.
I want the Braves. Last year we feared them and never even faced them. This year bring it on.
It was bound to happen.
Today’s Headline:
Vocabulary.com:
pastime is any hobby or activity that you do to pass the time. Usually, people enjoy their pastimes.
When baseball was more popular, it was called the “national pastime,” because so many people enjoyed watching or playing it. Baseball is still a major pastime, as are many other sports. Other pastimes include listening to music, playing music, watching TV, playing video games, playing with your dog, and any kind of hobby. Whenever you’re awake and not working, you’re probably enjoying a pastime.
Definitions of pastime
Baseball, and softball, is a game people of all ages can participate in. Football sure isn’t. We just sit and watch football.
I think maybe soon our national pastime will be playing video games.
Thx Jeff, just a fun and informative article. Our lineup can be truly fearsome if Lux and Outman can take their bats to the next level. If Outman can cut down his K’s, he could OPS .850. It will be interesting to see if 23 was his ceiling or his floor.
Great analysis Jeff!
The Braves and Dodgers both have impressive and deep lineups. Looks like the Braves lineup projects to be slightly better, just like last year. The biggest differences to me though are the Braves have a much younger lineup and they are signed to long term deals at lower cost compared to the Dodgers. The average age of the Braves position players is 27 compared to 31 for the Dodgers.The Dodgers have the star power, but the Braves have youth and stability in their lineup.
The Braves have been proactive in signing their young players to long term deals early, while the Dodgers have converted to signing/trading for veteran players. A good example is how the Braves extended Sean Murphy last offseason to a 6 yr $73 million contract. The Dodgers have not extended Will Smith who is a similar age, and a homegrown player with even better performance. In fact, this year MLBTR projected Will for an arbitration salary of $9.3 million, but the Dodgers negotiated him down to $8.55 million. It seems shortsighted to reduce Smith’s salary by $750k, when you just paid $1.2 billion to Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Glasnow. I fear that this may negatively impact the ability to extend Smith.
It is likely that the Braves and Dodgers meet in the playoffs this year after both have under achieved in the last two postseasons. That would be an epic series and hopefully a replay of 2020.
Good post.
I actually admire what the Braves have done, and I think they offer a contrasting template to the Friedman System.
Some of the characteristics of the Friedman way:
-Get maximum value from young and controllable players
-Constantly replenish the farm system as a conduit for more controllable players
-Don’t sign expensive long-term deals unless the player is really special
-find value in castoffs and use the player development system to rehabilitate them for more value
It works really well, but it’s not exactly predictable, and there’s a lot of balls in the air to make it all work.
The Braves, by contrast, have locked up their core and controllable players to long-term deals well before they hit free agency – and even arbitration. They’re making the decision to commit to their young and potential stars, so they sign them up to long-term deals early.
They pay more early in their careers, but wind up getting them for less than market value during the final years of the contract. If it works out, the team is less reliant on dipping into the free agency market to acquire top tier players.
Not only do you have a core group of players to build a team around, but there is budgetary certainty as well.
There are downsides.
At some point, when these contracts come to an end, the Braves will have to figure out how to do it all over again as opposed as the more-or-less perpetual renewal of the Dodgers way.
There’s also a risk that young player who seems like a budding star at 23 doesn’t pan out. The Rays took a similar approach with Wander Franco, and it was actually a great signing. Of the course it all blew up in their faces, but who could’ve known?
Great points. The Braves approach certainly has downside. They were lucky to get Acuna and Albies to sign very team friendly deals early. And a few of these early extensions will backfire. But based on the current roster, they will be a tough opponent for the next few years at least.
Cool stuff, Jeff.
Without geeking out on advanced metrics like fWAR, we can also simply look at the ’23 team stats and then estimate the impact of changes in the lineups.
The Braves’ offense was absolutely awesome in ’23. Their team OPS was a ridiculous .845, a full 50 points higher than the Dodgers’ impressive .795. (I bet several teams didn’t have a single starter with an OPS of .845.)
The wide OPS margin helps explain why the Braves led the majors with 947 runs to the Dodgers’ 906. The correlation between OPS and run scored shows in the top five ’23 offenses, with the Dodgers followed by the Rangers, Rays and Astros. The Phillies had the sixth-best OPS, but ranked 8th in runs scored.
Can the Dodgers’ offense catch up to the Braves?
I certainly think so, for three reasons: Shohei, Teoscar and Lux.
The Braves added Jared Kelenic, hoping he lives up to the hype. The Dodgers are upgrading at three spots in the lineup. While JDM had an excellent season (why hasn’t any team signed him yet?), the LF platoon led by David Peralta was pretty meh, and Rojas lived up to low offensive expectations at SS.
Something else to consider: Shohei, Teoscar and Lux are all pretty damn fast. A whole lot faster than the guys they are replacing. How many more runs will Shohei score than the lead-footed JDM? This has been an overlooked advantage of the new, improved Dodgers.
Roberts reportedly has said he expects to bat Mookie, Freddie and Shohei in that order. This trio should wind up in the Hall of Fame.
The next three are expected to be Will Smith, Max and Teoscar–each of whom has been an all-star.
The final three will likely include the veteran RF mashup of Heyward/Taylor/Margot and the team’s relative youngsters in Outman and Lux, both age 26.
It will be fun to see what this lineup can do.
But the pitching and defense is equally important.
Interesting. I tend to instinctively look at wRC+ when assessing players and don’t pay much attention to Off because wRC+ is a rate state and not a counting stat. I suppose when you’re looking at a team’s performance over an entire season it doesn’t really matter.
Still, what do these stats all mean?
Looking at last years team stats, the Braves had an Off score of 202.4. The Dodgers had an Off score of 134.0. The Rays were actually better than the Dodgers here at 147.3 even thought the Dodgers scored more total runs (the Dodgers had more total plate appearances).
wRC+ scores for the Braves, Rays and Dodgers for 2023 are:
125
118
116
So, wait! Based on last years Off score, the Braves were roughly 50% better than the Dodgers? That’s a lot!
What about wRC+?
The Braves were 7.76% better than the Dodgers. That’s more reasonable, but still. How does that compare with reality?
Just for giggles I did some calculating.
The Braves scored 947 total runs last year. The Dodgers scored 906 total runs last year. The Braves scored 4.53% more runs than the Dodgers.
Ok, but how do the total numbers compare to the total number of games or plate appearances by both of those teams? What about the rate of run production?
So, dividing the total plate appearances by each team by the total number of runs, we get this:
Total plate appearances/total runs for the Braves and the Dodgers …
6249/947 = 6.60
6333/906 = 6.99
So it took the Braves 6.6 plate appearances to produce a run. It took the Dodgers 7.0 plate appearances to produce a run. It actually took the Rays 7.2 plate appearances to produce each run even though their offense rated higher in both wRC+ and Off.
It took the Braves 5.58% fewer plate appearances to produce each run, so, I suppose one could say they were 5.58% better at producing runs as a rate stat.
My point? LOL. Not quite sure. I just went down a little rabbit hole … but, I think one thing to remember is that all of these sabre nerd stats – they are helpful, can give insight, and may have a mild predictive utility to them – but they don’t necessarily reflect reality. They are arbitrary constructs.
The Braves had a LOT more power and significantly more (27) SB and only 2 more CS. The Braves were a much better offensive team than the Dodgers last year. Atlanta’s fans had to be more disappointed with their team than we were with ours.
In today’s game, running is becoming more important, thus I chose OFF over wRC+ initially. But I came around and still compared wRC+ (and fWAR). The Dodgers have seemingly closed the gap with Atlanta’s offense. While the Dodgers seem to have improved offensively in LF, SS, and DH, the sole Braves change was Jarred Kelenic over Eddie Rosario. I am not sure that is an improvement. I know there are those that are out there that are huge Miguel Vargas fans, but I am betting that Manuel Margot will have a better season than Vargas/Busch.
A lot of fans say that the Dodgers are going to experience some regression in Mookie and Freddie. Maybe, maybe not. But are Ronald Acuña and Matt Olson and to a lesser degree Sean Murphy, going to play at their same 2023 levels?
IMO, there is no question as to who the best two teams in MLB are.
“The Braves had a LOT more power and significantly more (27) SB and only 2 more CS. The Braves were a much better offensive team than the Dodgers last year.”
Yeah. Sure.
I guess my point is how do you really judge what “a LOT” actually is? …or really what it means?
According to Off, the Braves were 50% better than the Dodgers offensively last year.
50%?!
The Braves actually scored 4.5% more total runs than the Dodgers in 2023.
50% according to a sabre stat vs. 4.5% based on what actually happened.
There seems to be disconnect here.
“A LOT” is, well, “a lot,” in capital letters.
A large sum, not a small one. Not medium-sized.
But instead of comparing the Dodgers to the Braves, let’s compare the ’24 Dodgers to the ’23 Dodgers in terms of power and speed.
Shohei>JDM
Teoscar>Peralta and platoon partners
Lux>Rojas
Even if we see some regression from the other regulars, it’s clear that the ’24 lineup has been supercharged. Not only do the new guys bring more power and speed, but they are also several years younger than the guys they are replacing.
We know that Shohei could hit 50 HRs, and Teoscar could hit 30. With the added muscle, Lux should reach 15, perhaps more. And we also know these guys won’t clog the basepaths. (They may not steal more, but they will often take an extra base )
It’s good to be a Dodgers fan.
I expect some egression simply because Mookie and Freddie set the bar so high with their ’23 performances. Shohei was also spectacular–but he may improve because of his new lineup and the ability to focus solely on hitting. (His work ethic is really impressive. He, Mookie and Freddie lead by example.)
Anyway, I don’t worry about the veterans much. I’m interested in seeing whether Outman can build on his ’23 success. Will he improve or suffer the dreaded sophomore slump? If he falters, Margot steps in.
Also very interested in what Lux can do. His upside is the best argument against a deal for Adames. On many teams, Lux might be batting first or second.
I wonder if the Lux-for-Burnes blockbuster notion was ever really advanced by either AF & Associates or the Brewers front office. Perhaps it was just the educated speculation of scribes and fans. But if I ran the Brewers, I’d rather have Lux in the lineup than the prospect they got from the Orioles.
On youtube I just stumbled upon an interview with Outman by Casey Porter of Dodgers Daily.
He talked about how he tries to do damage against righties, but focuses on a “quality at bat” against lefties. Batting near the bottom of the order, he said his goal was to simply to try to get Mookie another AB.
Developing more power is a goal against lefties, he said. My impression, however, is that it is as much a priority as simply getting on base.
Also, TrueblueLA has a surprisingly detailed report on Mike Gage, the veteran lefty acquire from the Yankees in the Ferguson deal.
I found in encouraging.
Gage seems like one of guys who could get polished up by Prior and his staff. He was very good against lefties, and not early as good against righthande batters. Gage may never get as shiny as Phillips or Brasier, but he certainly could be useful down the road. Of course the pitching coaches can also help the 19-year-old prospect Christian Zazueta in the deal as well.
Anyway, it looks to me like a win-win deal.
My sense is that the Dodgers brass considered Ferguson a finished product, and that they highly valued the flexibility that comes with this trade. The Dodgers upgraded by bringing back Brasier, a righthander who was effective against lefties.
And it’s possible that AF isn’t done bringing in bullpen talent.
Per Joel Sherman Kershaw is resigning with the Dodgers and will take a physical on Thursday
Kershaw trending on Twitter/X. Came across this clip.
He touched 97 MPH on one of his fastballs.
https://x.com/BBGreatMoments/status/1752451623211971067?s=20
I am relieved to learn that Kershaw has re-signed and did not resign–as in submitting his his resignation.
Someday we will all be resigned to his retirement.
But it could be a couple years away. Going out as a champion would be fitting.
He’s Baaaaacccckkkkkkk!!!!!!!
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/dodgers-re-sign-clayton-kershaw.html
And he is going straight to the 60-day IL.
Well, figuratively not literally.
He will be placed on the IL as soon as he signs. Negates the need to open a roster spot.
I don’t think you can move players to the 60 until camp begins, at least. Maybe a week into camp?
Once they report to camp. Dodgers report on Thursday, a week before 28 of the other 29 teams report. San Diego also reports on Thursday. The Dodgers and Pads report early because their season starts in Korea on March 20. Coincidentally the same day the Dodgers report is the day of Kershaw’s physical. Funny how that worked out.
Haha
Country legend Toby Keith has passed away at age 62 from stomach cancer. RIP
I am honestly shocked that Clayton Kershaw came back after the Dodgers did that horrible anti-Christian Gay Pride event.
I thought he was a good Christian Man.
Please – No rebuttals. Let’s just enjoy having CK back for his 17th season of his 1st ballot HOF career.
Unnecessary post.
A-fucking-men.
Classy Bluto, pure class, another proud moment
?
I’ll presume this is genuine, as my post was meant to be.
Great to hear Kershaw is coming back!
Best signing of the offseason IMO only!
Talk about a high and low day for me. I got excited seeing the notification come across my phone that #22 is back for at least his 17th season. But then I got the news my favorite Cowboy has lost his battle with stomach cancer at the age of 62.
Toby Keith, I will miss you. RIP Cowboy!!!
Feel the same, and he was an inspiration to our troops overseas. He did many shows for Vets and active duty alike. A couple of his hits, Courtesy of the Red, White and Blue, and American Soldier, were very patriotic.
There will never be another Bob Hope with our troops, but Toby Keith has been very involved with our troops over the years.
When I was adding music to my posts, I believe I had more Toby Keith songs than others. At least it sure seemed like it. The Eagles had their fare share as well.
I will be sure to raise a Red Solo Cup tonight at the dinner table.
Just don’t read some of the tweets about his passing referencing old political feuds with the Dixie Chicks or Kris Kristofferson. It’s depressing how callous people are b/c of differences of opinion.
They are worthless pieces of human excrement!
There he is!
Who you talking about now?
💯
Not Kristofferson. I actually think he’s a remarkably decent person.
I do think Mark is calling those who are callous, pieces of shit.
Which was unnecessary, but most of what I say is unnecessary.
He might actually be. I like him a lot as a performer. I only cite him b/c I briefly delved into the angry Twitter sewer that was citing a 20 year old feud between him and Keith to throw shade on dead person.
And correct. Mark was referring to the folks I referenced who were using his death as an opportunity to denounce him because of his views from 20 years ago, which I think most decent people would agree is callous.
My comment was probably unnecessary, too
I know nothing about either. Not much of a country fan.
I do know that Kristofferson not only served, but was a Green Beret or Army Ranger.
That’s necessary stuff (in a military!)
Kris Kristofferson was also a Rhodes Scholar. If you didn’t get to see Willie Nelson’s 90th Birthday Celebration, Kris was there and is a shell of himself. It’s unfortunate, as I do not think he even knew where he was. I have been a Kris Kristofferson fan forever. I am not really a Country Music Fan… but I like some of it.
Bluto, He joined the Army under pressure from his family. He was commissioned as a second lieutenant and would rise to the rank of Captain. He was trained as a helicopter pilot at Fort Rucker Alabama. He also went to Ranger school. He was Assigned to the 8th Infantry Division in Germany. While in Germany he resumed his music career and formed a band. When he was through with his tour in 1965, he was assigned to teach English Literature at West Point. Instead, he resigned his commission and decided to pursue songwriting. His family then disowned him because leaving the military went against everything they stood for. Despite that, he was proud of his service, and in 2003, he received the Veteran of the Year award at the Veterans Award Ceremony.
Thank you Bear, as I tried to imply. I knew none of this detail.
It’s quite an interesting part of his life.
Yes, the one thing they did not know was if he and his family have ever reconciled. I saw him live at the old Crazy Horse in Santa Ana. Great show. I saw Charlie Daniels there too. I also won a talent finals there. First prize was a brand-new G&L ASAT guitar. G&L was the company Leo Fender formed after he had sold Fender and then Music Man.
It’s a hell of a life story. John Cash saw his talent and helped him along
College football star. Handsome guy, too. After his success an actor, didn’t People name him “The Sexiest Man Alive”?
Edged out some guy named Mike Timmons or Mark Simmons…
Yes, Kris is suffering memory loss, which he traces to multiple concussions from his football days.
As if Mark was never callous….
I think you meant age 62
Already fixed. Thank you!!
Yeah, far too young… Why can’t all cowboys grow old like Willie Nelson?
On a semi-related note, I googled Tracy Chapman’s age. “Fast Car” is an indelible tune that, for me, evokes memories of a certain period in my life and a certain romance with a woman named Lisa.
Anyway, I was a bit surprised to see that Tracy Chapman is 59, eight years younger than myself. But only an old soul could have written “Fast Car.”
Luke Combs is 33. “Fast Car” became a hit before his birth. It was funny to learn that his version is on an album titled “Gettin’ Old.”
Before he was diagnosed with cancer, he was asked what else he wants to accomplish, and his response to be around as long as Willie Nelson.
I do not know about any feud with Kris, who I admire and respect, but his feud with the Dixie Chicks was over some lyrics in his song, Courtesy of the Red White and Blue. They objected to the line “We’ll put a boot in your ass It’s the American way.” Around the same time the Chicks, one of them at least, said some disparaging things about the then President, Bush. It escalated for a while then went away. The Chicks were eventually banned from country radio. They are back, but not with the same three girls. There was some controversy with the Chicks over the lyrics to Goodbye Earl. A song in which some girl kills her abusive boyfriend.
Congrats. Eh?
Take off, hoser.
And come back with some Molsons
Hey, the Dodgers probably have another future Hall of Famer (Canuck wing) in James Paxton, the Big Maple.
Bill Plunkett of the Daily News is reporting that the new Kershaw contract will include a player option for 2025.
No $ details yet.
Get ready to pay. ESPN, Fox, Warner Bros and Discovery will be forming a joint sports streaming service.
I kinda like the idea of a sports aggregator. We’re already paying for sports and it’s a struggle (sometimes) to find which paying service has which game. This bundle would solve that problem.
I’ll reserve judgment…
Pecota projections.
101-61 tied with Braves for best record in MLB. The Dodgers are ranked slightly better with a 101.1 win projection against the Braves 100.7 projection. Pecota projects only two other teams with 90+ wins: Houston 95.0 wins and NYY with 94.4 wins.
Projected playoffs:
NL
AL
The Dodgers are projected to score 879 runs this year, ahead of the Atlanta Braves (855), Houston Astros (839) and New York Yankees (827) as the only teams with 800 or more runs.
On the pitching side, the Dodgers are expected to allow 685 runs, placing them behind the Braves (671), Baltimore Orioles (675), Tampa Bay Rays (681), Minnesota Twins (681) and the Yankees (684).
Run differential:
These are the only teams with run differential projections in excess of 100 runs.
FWIW, since 2017, the Dodgers have won more than the Pecota projected wins in every year other than 2018, the year without Corey Seager. I will take the over in 2024.
Both LAD and ATL have a 99.8% chance at making the playoffs. The Dodgers are slightly more favored to win their division, but Atlanta is 18.7% chance at winning the WS while the Dodgers are at 17.1%. Next closest is Houston at 12.1% and NYY at 10.8%.
Neither may win the WS, but clearly the two best teams in MLB are the Dodgers and Atlanta.
Yep. Right where I had them. Dodgers 100+, Arizona 85.
I think I’ll take the over on wins and runs scored.
This season can’t start soon enough for me.
Fangraphs has Kershaw with 13 starts and 73 innings. That would be cool of course but I find that to be somewhat improbable.
The Kenley Jansen Dodger Reunion Rumors persist.
Now, I hear Bruns to the Red Sox and Jansen and cash to the Dodgers.
And what’s your opinion on this?
He’s at best a 1 WAR pitcher who projects a 3.8 ERA. Is he worth 16 million?
Better be $8 million coming back if they give up Bruns for him.
I would not say NO.
I would say, “HELL NO!”
Please no!
Please NO.
That particular trade wasn’t really a rumor. It was some guy (I forget who) just dreaming up potential scenarios in his own mind and then throwing them out there.
And add me to the list of Please, No.
I can’t even read or listen to Dodgers Nation with Doug McKain anymore.
It’s mostly just made up stuff for content to attract the Doyer Bros.
Keep Bruns!
As you know, I am not nearly as gung-ho on Bruns as many here are. If he is as good as many of you think he is, then NOW is the time to move him. Not for KJ, but how about for a legit top 10 A/A+ level OF or middle infield prospect. Or we could see another talent evaporation like Kody Hoese or Jeren Kendall. Of course you may all be right and me wrong (happens a lot), and Bruns could become a top of the rotation starter. Okay, let’s not get carried away. Maybe mid to backend. But then there should be some pitching hungry organization with OF and middle infield prospects that a trade can be effectuated, and both teams can win the trade.
With Ferguson, as I said earlier, this was a Ferguson for Gage trade. Zazueta was a throw in lottery ticket. Gage needs the pitching gurus to help him with RH batters. But he does give the Dodgers what they dearly value…options. He is so good against LH batters, that if he can get just okay against RH batters, then he will become a legit middle reliever. Gage was a very good gamble. Brasier is so very good at getting LH batters out, that Ferguson was not considered necessary. If they get anything out of Zazueta, then that is a plus.
He might never get over his wildness or get enough control to be a starter, but a reliever?
I think a lefty who touches 98 and has “electric” secondaries isn’t something that grows on trees.
Dodger coaches know more than we do, so if they think he’s unfixable, then so be it. He was drafted out of high school, so still pretty young.
You were never high on Bruns. I remember you didn’t like this pick by the Dodgers and wanted a guy with less risk. I forget who that was.
Well, he is still a Dodger so there is that.
First of all, I 100% agree that the Dodgers know WAAAAAYYYY much more than I do. I do believe (and have said so for nearly 2 years) that Bruns is a LHRP. So I am not arguing that he does not have a place in the organization. Just not as a starter (IMO – For whatever that is worth). If we are talking about LHRP, I prefer the one who has already made the conversion (late last year)… a 2 month younger Ronan Kopp. I think my point is that if the Dodgers are holding onto Bruns because he is going to be a stalwart LHRP, IMO (again FWIW), he is more valuable at this stage of his career to have some other pitching hungry team with a top 10-15 OF or middle infield prospect take Bruns, while he has starter value. The Dodgers have more relief prospects than anyone in MLB. Bruns would not be missed.
My less risky choice at the time was RHSP from Texas, Ty Madden. Madden reached AA this year. In 118 AA IP, Madden had a 11.14 K/9 and 2.92 BB/9. He was the overall #32 pick by Detroit. Bruns (2 years 4 months younger) was the 29th overall pick. At A+ last year, Bruns had a 11.01 K/9 and 6.39 BB/9.
My more risky pick was 3B Tyler Black out of Wright State, who went #33 overall to Milwaukee. I am still high on Black. I bring him up all the time. I liked Black because I was tired of waiting for Mark’s choice to be the next superstar 3B for LAD to arrive…Kody Hoese 😃. They needed a 3B…badly. They still do.
Agreed!
I was a hell no more than 5 years ago!
Will you be dusting off our projections for last year?
I can do that. Outside of ROY, I did not do very good. I got both ROY picks correct.
Astros extended Altuve for 5 years. Bregman is next. Good thing, no one would want to trade for that cheater. One writer says he thinks the Dodgers will trade Maddux Bruns to get Jansen back. Doubtful. Going to be playing some music with friends on Saturday here in my building. Great change of pace.
Maddux Bruns may never harness his control…
or he might!
To me, you have to ride with him for as long as possible. The reward it sooooo high!
You said the same thing about Kody Hoese, and now he is the equivalent of PTBNL. And to a lesser degree, Brandon Lewis. Bruns has three plus pitches that he has never been able to control. And after 2.5 years in the Dodger pitching lab, he still cannot garner that control. Will this be the year? I would hope so. If not, the Dodgers will have lost another year holding onto perhaps a valuable trade piece. He is a reliever who just does not realize it yet. Kopp has made the conversion. Andrew Miller was a 1st round pick that never made it as a starter, and Phil Bickford was twice a 1st round pick who never made it as a starter. Some will say that Bickford has never made it.
Unfortunately, holding onto these types of players for as long as possible is exactly what the Dodgers do. Then when they hit AAA and they realize they are not really going to be a star or even a regular, AF/BG finds a FA or trade, and fans get upset because the Dodgers are not loyal to their MiLB players. They made the decision to trade Busch, and got value out of that trade. Could they have done better had they tried to trade him a year earlier when his trade value was at its zenith?
You want to hold onto Bruns because of what he MIGHT become (doubtful). It is not like the Dodgers do not have the pitching depth that they could not take a chance on a trade. Bruns is a mid top 30 pitching prospect, and I would rather have a mid top 30 prospect for a position the Dodgers actually NEED.
Jackson Ferris is a younger and better LHP prospect than Bruns (acquired in a trade for Busch). You can get value in trading prospects for prospects. I also think the Dodgers may have found a gem in LHP prospect Justin Chambers (just turned 18). That its who they got for Bryan Hudson from the Brewers. What might the Dodgers get back for Bruns?
You think Bruns is more valuable as a potential LAD pitcher (most likely out of the bullpen), and I think he is more valuable to trade. We simply disagree, and neither one of us knows a bit what AF/BG think.
I was in on Hoese UNTIL I watched him a few dozen times, and then I was out.
I love Brandon Lewis’ “backstory” but he was never skilled enough.
That’s the difference between them and Bruns. You can’t teach that kind of stuff… maybe you can teach control… to some degree…
Amazingly, Snell and Bellinger are still unsigned with spring training just a week away. Even though the teams played 144 games in 95, I find it a little disturbing that no one discounts the Braves winning a title in a shortened season with that team. It was their only title during their 15 years of dominance of the NL>
I’m 100% with you on seeing what we can get for Bruns now and the main reason for me is what you pointed out above——we have a huge amount of good pitching prospects but are lacking in a decent amount of infield and outfield prospects who are anywhere close to MLB ready.
If he could be part of a package to bring us back Williams, absolutely go for it, but if not a prospect for prospect package that brings back a good young outfielder would be worthwhile also.
I say package him with other pitching prospects and go after young super stud outfielder or 3rd base priospect
That’s easy to ask, but who?
Can anyone point me to this Tweet or article about Bruns for Jansen?
I can’t seem to find it.
Try this. It is just pure speculation from Zachary Rymer. He does a lot of this speculation for Bleacher Report.
It’s gone now. I saw it about 7:30 AM.
I did not say I put any credence into it.
Gary Sanchez to Brewers on a one year $7m deal.
Now that is a deal we should have made.
Massive offensive upgrade on Barnes, and a proper Back Up should something unforeseen happen to Will.
Would Sanchez have wanted to backup an All-Star?
Back Up on the Dodgers or Back
Up on the Brewers for one year?
I think I know where I’d have gone.
The Brewers aren’t paying him $7 Million to be a backup. Contreras also plays DH and LF. Sanchez is playing for a multi-year deal and will get a lot more time with the Brewers instead of the Dodgers. In fact, the Brewers are paying him $7 Million (more than the Dodgers would ever pay for a backup catcher) which means that he is going to play a lot. You can’t have an All-Star at every position.