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What (Who) Comes Next

First of all, congratulations to the Dodgers who actually completed a task that has been rumored for over a year.  It was rumored that the lack of activity last year was done to set the team up in 2024 for Ohtani.  As everyone knows they successfully signed Ohtani to a 10 year $700MM contract, and completed their mission.  That has not always happened.  So good for Guggs and Company allowing this to actually happen.

But not all of us are happy with this.  I am not jumping on the Ohtani train until I know who the Dodgers get for pitchers.  My overwhelming 1st choice for FA was Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yes, for me, it was always Yamamoto over Ohtani on my wish list.  To get a 25 year old dominating pitcher who has not had TJ surgery even once was exactly what the Dodgers needed.  They chose the bat and maybe a pitcher, and of course the marketing magnet.  The owners are back-slapping each other because the return on their investment just got a lot better.  The baseball team?  Not without pitching.

IMO Nathan Eovaldi is the best starting pitcher who has had double TJ surgery, and he is not a dominant pitcher.  Good?  Yes.  Elite? No.

Their will be two more pitchers with double TJ surgeries coming back at some point this season…Walker Buehler and Jacob deGrom.  What if they all come back more like Chris Capuano or Mike Clevinger than Nathan Eovaldi.

I understand how the deferred payments reduce the AAV.  I have written multiple times how the $527MM investment in Mookie and Freddie have 1/3 of their gross salary deferred over long periods of time (10+ years after contract).  Those deferred payments save a tad over $7.1MM in AAV.

The Ohtani deferred salary AAV savings started out at just north of $10MM when the news first broke.  Then quickly moved to $15MM to $25MM.  Yesterday it was reported by someone that it will be $35MM savings in AAV.  How much longer before he is free.  Only the Dodgers, Ohtani, and Nez Balelo know the deferred amount, number of years deferred, amount of each annual payment, and the discount rate used.  All four have to be known to attempt at calculating the present value of $700MM.  Everybody else is guessing and probably has as much information as Jon Morosi and J.P Hoornstra had with where Ohtani was going to land.  I will wait until it is verified by the Dodgers what the actual contract is.  Only the Dodgers know how much left they have to spend, and they are not about to advertise it.

Per Fabian Ardaya, the Dodgers are now looking at:

Free agents:

  • RHSP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
  • LHSP Blake Snell
  • OF Teoscar Hernandez
  • UT Kiké Hernández
  • RHSP Lucas Giolito
  • UT Isiah Kiner-Falefa
  • OF Michael A Taylor

Trade targets:

  • RHSP Tyler Glasnow
  • RHSP Dylan Cease

I do not believe for a minute that NYY or NYM will let the Dodgers sign Yamamoto.  Neither will the Giants.  I am not a believer that AF will negotiate a long term, 9 figure deal with a Scott Boras client (Snell), and one tied to a second QO.   I have no idea why they could be interested in Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Michael A. Taylor.  They have also been tied to Max Kepler.  Why?  Because he is better than David Peralta?  I understand the draw with Kiké Hernández, but with CT3 and Miguel Rojas, is he necessary?  If there are roster changes that would free up a suitable roster spot for Kiké, then okay.  But if it comes down to Randy Arozarena or Kiké, I hope it is Arozarena, even knowing he will cost more than just $$$.

I am not surprised that Jordan Montgomery was not included, even though he is LH and does not come with a QO.  He is a Scott Boras client and has always seemed to be heading back to Texas. Why Blake Snell? He is older, and also a Boras client.  Maybe it is because AF drafted him in the first round in 2011.

The Dodgers have already lost their #2 and #5 draft for 2024, and $1MM in International Bonus money by signing Ohtani.  Are they willing to lose their 3rd and 6th draft pick as well by signing Snell?  I have absolutely no clue as to how signing Ohtani has changed their previous strategies for this year.

I am not surprised that Ardaya did not name Shōta Imanaga or Jung Hoo Lee.  Neither has been mentioned with the Dodgers as a pursuer.  Although that really does not mean anything.  They may just not be at the top of their wish list.  I am surprised that Randy Arozarena was not included.

Yamamoto’s posting period ends January 4, 2024, at 5:00 PM ET.  It is believed he will announce somewhere around Christmas, but probably before New Years.  Again, those are guesses.  Teams will have to pivot fairly quickly for Shōta Imanaga whose posting period ends January 11, 2024, at 5:00 PM ET.

The Korean posting period is only 30 days.  Jung Hoo Lee’s posting period ends January 3.  Look for a pre New Years deal for Lee.  His best friend is Ha-Seong Kim, so SD, needing a CF, has a leg up on Lee.  Although the price for Lee keeps rising, and SD may not be able to match what other teams are willing to pay.

Milwaukee has pretty much told teams that Corbin Burnes WILL BE starting the 2024 season in Milwaukee, unless there is a massive overpay.  Not AF’s style.

I am still concerned that teams like Baltimore, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Cubs, Giants, Padres, NYY, NYM and Minnesota will come up with trade deals that will be better than what the Dodgers will offer.  They all can. Maybe AF pushes the envelope to make teams overpay.  With Ohtani already in tow, they have the leverage.

IMO, the Dodgers match up best with Tampa Bay for Glasnow.  His salary is $25MM, with an AAV of $15.175MM.

As of right now, the Dodgers rotation coming out of ST will be – Miller. Pepiot, Yarbrough, Sheehan, Stone/Grove. Will that be the actual rotation?  Absolutely not.  Buehler should be added late spring/early summer.  Kershaw MAY be added at the AS break or trade deadline period.   Knowing that Buehler and Kershaw coming off significant surgeries will not be enough, where will AF/BG append the rotation: at the front end or the back end?

 

 

 

 

 

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Bobby

I just posted this before the new thread was opened, so my brilliant post is now being reposted:

Actually, it is interesting to think:
If we spend more money this offseason on pitching (Yamamoto) or trade for guys making money (Glasnow), would we try offsetting some salary (i.e. trade a Muncy or trade a CT3)?
I’m also wondering who might be the best pitcher to trade for. Glasnow makes more money in 2024 than Burnes or Cease, AND Glasnow career high innings pitched is only 120. So not like he’s some durable ace. Is he worth giving up some kids for, AND paying $25 mil in 2024 if he’s another guy who needs constant vacations?

tedraymond

Heck no on Glasnow. Especially for $25M and the injury history. Looking at his career stats how did he get TB to pay him $25M?

I know Milwaukee is saying there going for the gold in the Central and are not going to trade Burnes (until the trade deadline). Knowing that they are probably not going to resign him, why take that risk now? They’ll get way more now than at the trade deadline. This has an Angel move written all over it. No is just a suggestion. AF has a multitude of prospects to trade right now. Same with the Cease situation. Send them of a list of players that could be available in a trade and tell them to start picking to get a deal done.

What about Zach Eflin from TB? He’s signed for $13M+ for for each of the next two seasons. Include Arozarena and they have their RH hitting LF.

Besides a Giolito (or another fix ’em) signing, a top of the rotation free agent needs to be signed. Who that is I do not know. But, at this point it’s all in. If Sasaki can get posted he would be an ideal signing being he would not be a free agent because he hasn’t played long enough in Japan. Same situation that Ohtani faced when he signed with the Angel.

I would think this week signings should start to accelerate. Hopefully, AF will be in on all the action. Let’s see if he can remain out of his comfort zone.

Jeff D, I have a request as far as navigating the site. Below your current posting there are “other posts”. Each post has a link to the comments for that particular post. When you click on it it goes to the article. You then you have to scroll down to the bottom of the article to access the posts. Is there a way to go directly to the comments when clicking that link? It’s not a big deal, but this time of year I’m sometimes on the site a few times a day. Thanks.

Badger

Have you seen his projections Ted?

tedraymond

Thanks Jeff. That works! I knew it had to be something obvious.

Bumsrap

Would it be unfair if the Dodgers were able to sign Roki Sasaki this year?

Oldbear48

He has not been posted.

Bobby

Unfair yes. Who gives a shit? not me.

It would set us up for an insane future, especially if that young Korean pitcher of the Year we signed last year becomes something as well.

Badger

“I am not jumping on the Ohtani train until I know who the Dodgers get for pitchers”

Well I for one look forward to your jumping on that train with me (and others) when the time comes. And make no mistake, the time WILL come.

I would like to see a big strong left hander arrive and step in at the front of the rotation. Glasnow, Imanaga and Snell fit that slot for me. Burnes, Yamamoto or Cease would be nice, as would anyone being mentioned actually. I still believe Giolito will be on board and I believe in all our young pitchers that got valuable experience last season.

The Dodgers can afford anybody they want and I still believe if the Dodgers call and express sincere interest all those guys are going to listen. As you mentioned, it’s Sho Time in LA. Wanna play?

Ohtani’s AAV is estimated to be between $45-50 million. I believe Badgerdamus had that one though admittedly he backed into it. Now, grab whatever pitchers you really want, through trade (Vargas, Busch, Muncy, Knack, Frasso, Ryan, Hurt, one of the catchers) or a free agent (or two) and start counting the money.

OhioDodger

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Oldbear48

Waiting until I see who is on the roster come February before I make any judgements.

Badger

Judgments on what exactly?

Bumsrap

I think Bear is waiting to learn what Ohtani names his dog. I agree with waiting for that as well. What if he names his dog Honey or Barkalot? That would be just wrong.

I will accept among others:

Blue
Doc
Homer
Kasty

I would have posted this earlier but I was waiting for STB to bring us back to the real worry we all have with the Ohtani signing.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bumsrap
Badger

I like Walter. Seems appropriate.

Dionysus

Looking forward to your write-up on Sweeney. You do a fantastic job on those.

Bluto

I’d put it in this order of likelihood and preference

  1. Cease
  2. Cabrera or Rogers from Miami
  3. Glasnow
  4. Burnes
  5. Someone totally off the radar
  6. Yamamoto

Glasnow should probably be #1, but I think since Tampa fleeces everyone in trades, I’ll move him down to #3.

Bobby

Fabian Ardaya:
Exclusive
@TheAthletic
: Shohei Ohtani will defer $68 million per year of his $70 million annual salary over the course of his 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers, allowing the team to keep spending, according to a person briefed on the terms.

Jeff

A very simple person could live off a lot less than that.

Bluto

I’m sure he has revenue streams beyond baseball.

IGNORE. Badger addresses below.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bluto
Badger

Ohtani is not living on $2 million a year. This past season, Ohtani made approximately $40 million in endorsement deals, according to the Los Angeles Times. He has agreements with New Balance, Fanatics, Topps, plus scores of companies in Japan. 

Jeff

I guess he’s not a saint.

Fred Vogel

From MLBTR:

The Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani agreed to massive a ten-year, $700MM deal over the weekend, but it was reported that there were significant deferrals. The deal still isn’t official but Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic relays some of the particulars today, most notably that $68MM of Ohtani’s $70MM annual salary will be deferred, leaving him making just $2MM per year in the short term. The deferred money is to be paid out without interest from 2034 to 2043. This will reduce the CBT hit of the contract to around $46MM per year.

Bobby

Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million contract calls for him to be paid only $2 million a year for the next 10 seasons, with $680 million deferred until the end of the deal, sources confirm to ESPN.
The CBT hit on the contract is going to be around $46 million, a huge discount for L.A.

Badger

It’s just chatter but this one makes sense to me:

”There’s an argument that Glasnow would only introduce more volatility, but the sheer upside of a Buehler-Glasnow-Miller trio would be worth it.

Trade Proposal: Los Angeles Dodgers get RHP Tyler Glasnow; Tampa Bay Rays get RHP Nick Frasso, RHP Landon Knack”

Oldbear48

Expand the trade and get Arozarena

Oldbear48

Ohtani deferring 68 mil a year. Dodgers can add whatever they need.

Dionysus

Did not know Glasnow’s AAV hit is only $15m. Very attractive one-year option we could Q.O.

Sam Oyed

Sources: After landing Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers are aggressively pursuing free-agent RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The flexibility Ohtani’s contract provides allows Los Angeles to make room for additional marquee FAs.

Yamamoto and the Dodgers are expected to meet later this week.

Bluto

The Dodgers currently have a projected $218M CBT payroll even after officially signing Shohei Ohtani, per Spotrac

That’s $19M below the CBT threshold of $237M, and $59M under the third threshold where they’d drop 10 draft spots in the first round. Lots of money still to spend.

Oldbear48

Shohei signing is now official. He will wear his number 17. Kelly on the roster no number listed.

Jeff

This is going to be an exciting year for the Corporate Dodgers. They need 1 or two good starting pitchers and the rest of the rotation culled in-house. Do you think there is any chance of Muncy being traded? He is the weak link in the infield. Surely he is worth an everyday Left Fielder.

Oldbear48

Not a chance. He signed a very team friendly contract and his defense improved in the second half. Is he elite? No, but he is middle of the pack at least. You trade Max, then you need to trade for a 3rd baseman because you are not putting Vargas or Busch there. Neither has Muncy’s offensive skills,

Jeff

You don’t think we can expect the same low BA and higher than average errors and missed chances at 3B? A decent 3B bat to ball hitter would be most efficient.

Badger

I believe what Ted might have been referring to Jeff is what I’ve mentioned a couple of times. Clicking on a new post to see what that poster has to say doesn’t take you directly to that particular post. You have to search for it.

Just saw a reference to ticket prices in the Times. Standing room only (?) resale tickets were around $490 and dugout club tickets were between $4,000 and $10,000. Yeah. Ok. Someone will probably pay that much. It’s LA. In regards to new ticket prices for the season it said “check back later”.

Last edited 2 months ago by Badger
tedraymond

Yeah, I don’t mind searching for a post. I was looking for a way to go directly to the comments without having to go first to the original daily article. Clicking on the icon that opens to the comments is fine. To suggest what you would like would be a nice feature. But, considering that Jeff is paying the bill and it’s free to us I’m fine with the way it is now. Thanks for trying to help.

Sometimes people will pay damn near any price to be part of history. There are so many wealthy people in LA it’s hard to comprehend. The middle class here seems to be shrinking. Or, the income required to be part of the middle class has risen dramatically. But, another topic for another blog.

Carry on.

Badger

I don’t know how these blogs function mechanically, it just seems to me that showing the new comments, then clicking on them should take one directly to the post without difficulty. I of course could be wrong. And you’re right, it’s not that difficult to search the thread and find them, unless of course the count gets up over 50.

It’s not outrageous to think Opening Day will be a sellout crowd no matter the cost. I expect a global television audience as well. With all the attention this one move is getting I also have faith the Dodgers will get the pitching they want to get. They are not going into Sho Time without a strong starting rotation.

Singing the Blue

Misc. comments and questions:

1) Bluto, you had a list above of pitchers by likelihood and preference. Just wondered why you had Yamamoto last?

I wouldn’t mind a surprise trade for (lefty) Luzardo, but that would probably come at a very high prospect price.

2) Badger, you commented “I would like to see a big strong left hander arrive and step in at the front of the rotation. Glasnow, Imanaga and Snell fit that slot for me.”

Maybe I’m misunderstanding what you’ve written here, but Glasnow is a righty, not a southpaw, although he does bat lefty but of course that doesn’t mean anything any longer.

3) Kelly’s wife (in the videos) obviously has a fantastic sense of humor. They’d be a great couple to hang out with for an evening.

4) All along, I’ve wanted Yamamoto more than Ohtani but if we could get both…….

The fact that he was a Dodger fan growing up and would have a chance to play with Ohtani puts us in a strong position, in my opinion, unless he doesn’t want to play in Shohei’s shadow. That said, if his performance in Japan translates well to the U.S. he would probably be our Ace, even once Ohtani starts pitching again. I think we have as good a chance as anyone of signing him and I’m guessing we’ll know before Christmas.

Bobby

piggybacking off #4:

If Yamamoto sees Ohtani defer so much cash so we can sign other guys, then:

1) have Ohtani and Yamamoto talked about teaming up here?
2) would Yamamoto also take a bit less to come to LA and win, especially if this was his fave team growing up?
3) curious if both #1 and #2 apply to Imanaga as well?

Badger

Interesting questions all, and to be answered in the coming days.

I do know that Glasnow is a right hander. I maybe should’ve been more exact. I want a strong #1 to go in front of Miller. Glasnow projects 160 innings of 3.2 ERA and a 1.1 WHIP. I like those numbers, and if it ain’t him then the others mentioned would be fine. I’m not as hung up on righty lefty as many. I want pitchers who can get anyone out and hitters who can hit anybody.

tedraymond

I have to disagree with the Glasnow “projections”. In 2023 he started 21 games and pitched 120 innings. Both were career highs. HIs ERA was 3.53 with a ship of 1.08. The games started and innings last year were almost twice his previous highs. So the projections (I’m assuming for 2024) appear flawed or wildly optimistic.

That being said I wouldn’t mind trading for him as long as Arozarena is included in the deal.

Badger

I think the projections are based on his second half stats. You might want to check them out. 13 starts 78+ innings 3.22 ERA, 1.009 WHIP.

Bluto

I agree with Jeff D that Yamamoto’s bidding war will make him prohibitive to Friedman’s value-based inclinations.

Singing the Blue

You mean, the same situation as Ohtani’s bidding war made him prohibitive to Friedman’s value-based inclinations?

Of course, sometimes situations or your bosses dictate actions contrary to your general inclinations.

Bluto

I think Ohtani’s contract in light of additional revenue and how the payments are structured is a MASSIVE value in almost any term including both cash flow and allowing the Dodgers to continue to build this off-season.

Frankly, I’m not sure how it can be seen otherwise.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bluto
Bumsrap

Yamamoto, unlike Ohtani, won’t be negotiating deferrals with as many millions already in his bank account.

Bluto

Probably correct.

tedraymond

Bingo! We have a winner.

Oldbear48

Seth Lugo will be off of the market, finalizing a contract with the Royals.

Sam Oyed

Former Dodger Jeter Downs has been DFA by the Nationals.

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