Before we start Game 4 of the WS:
Here are the seedings of this year’s MLB playoffs.
#1 Seed – Atlanta – 104
#2 Seed – Dodgers – 100
#3 Seed – Milwaukee – 92
#4 Seed – Philadelphia – 90
#5 Seed – Miami – 84
#6 Seed – Arizona – 84
#1 Seed – Baltimore – 101
#2 Seed – Houston – 90
#3 Seed – Minnesota – 87
#4 Seed – Tampa Bay – 99
#5 Seed – Texas – 90
#6 Seed – Toronto – 89
There were only 8 teams with 90 or more wins to make the playoffs. That leaves 4 teams with less than 90 wins. The WS has a #5 seed (Texas) facing a #6 seed Arizona. As I predicted (and a lot of others) very few are turning to watch the WS. Game 1 drew an audience of just 9.17 million viewers. That is the worst year ever. The previous low? Game 2 of the 2020 series played in the bubble drew 9.184 million viewers.
Neither participant had the type of year that would excite potential viewers. While I do like many of the players, there is no Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuña Jr., Julio Rodriguez, or Mike Trout. Of the top 20 jersey sales, only Corey Seager (#14) was in the top 20 from either team in the WS. So who is going to get viewers to watch?
Neither WS teams draw in their own stadiums. Texas was #16 in attendance with 2.53 million, while Arizona was #20 with 1.96 million. When the Dodgers played in Arizona, at least half the stadium was filled with LAD fans.
So is it really that surprising that nobody is watching this series? Joe Davis is doing his best to generate player interest by trying to make Corbin Carroll a household name. I think Carroll will eventually get there, but he is not there yet.
So MLB is putting on their show with two of the least known teams in MLB and Rob Manfred thinks it is an overwhelming success. I am sure the network sponsors do not agree.
I know the MLBPA does not agree. They never wanted to expand the playoffs in the first place. Owners see that they can get into the playoffs by playing just over .500 baseball. Two teams had 84-78 records, and one of them is in the WS. So what will be the owners’ impetus to have a huge payroll, if it is not needed? This was the MLBPA’s big concern. My eyes will be on Baltimore. They need top pitching and they have the ability to acquire it. Via trade or FA. Will they spend or are they okay with 101 wins and a playoff appearance?
If the Dodgers believed they could fill the stadium with only a 90 win team and still make the playoffs, what is their incentive to sign big $$$ free agents. We already have Stan (winning the Division is all I care about) Kasten saying attendance dictates that the LAD fans are fine with winning during the season and crapping out in the playoffs.
After all, the playoffs are only a crapshoot, or so we are told. 1 in 6 odds? That is like saying in a twelve horse race, the odds should be 1in12 for all 12 horses. The last two years, the odds have been stacked against the top two teams in each League. Two out of eight bye teams reached the LCS (Houston both years), and then one in four made the WS (Houston in 2022).
Change the Wild Card games to one game, and have them play on Tuesday after the season. Make the Wild Card winners face the bye teams on Wednesday. Best of 5 with no days off in the Divisional Series. Then the odds of the best teams during the regular season are in a much better position to reach the LCS. Only two days off before the LDS and the Wild Card team only has one game and no day off after the win. This would also give teams incentive to bring on stars, making it much less of a crapshoot.
This will never happen as TV will never allow it. TV could care less whether the regular season should count for something. More games and more days off to spread those games out. But MLB competition committee sure should.
So why spend $600MM on a DH and a questionable elbow? No incentive for LAD, especially when the team has the largest attendance and by a large margin. LAD 550K over the #2 attendance, SDP.
Most avid LAD fans are split. Some are fine with the Dodgers always being competitive and making the playoffs every year, while others believe that success is determined by only winning the WS. Most non-LAD fans believe the 2020 WS did not count, and that they have not won a WS in a full season since 1988, now reaching 45 years. Many LAD fans also fall into that category. As the years move on, that belief will only become more prominent.
Andrew Heaney vs Joe Mantiply as the starting pitchers in Game 4. Two bullpen games in the WS? How will this drive viewership? How will this drive interest from the young fans that will be needed for the future viewership.
Game 4 on Halloween night? Remember when the WS did not have to compete against Halloween as the WS was over before the end of October? TV and TV revenue is dictating how the playoff schedule should play out. The smaller market team owners have no problem, as their biggest revenue source by far is TV revenue. Winning is secondary to revenues, and revenues that will not be spent on player personnel.
Again, Rob Manfred considers this a success. I am a baseball fan, and I will watch the WS regardless as to who is playing. I love watching future stars on the big stage…Evan Carter, Corbin Carroll, Josh Jung, Gabriel Moreno, Geraldo Perdomo, Brandon Pfaadt.
Elsewhere I came across this gem from Jerry Hairston Jr. on Mookie and the playoffs:
“I think maybe he was a little tired,” Hairston Jr. said. “We know he bulked up last offseason, gained about 8-10 pounds of muscle so he could be stronger in the second half and he had an incredible August. He got so hot, not only was he so hot, he was always on base. And when you’re always on base, always scoring runs plus you’re asked to play right field, shortstop, second base, you’re constantly moving, it can be draining and taxing – not just mentally, but also physically. I want to say maybe he was a little gassed. … We may need to look at that going forward, maybe giving him some rest in September to make sure he’s completely fresh because he uses his entire body to generate so much force in that swing.”
This goes into the ever growing column of why can’t players play hard for 162 games with more days off than ever? Why is there so much platooning? Why can’t pitchers throw 200 innings anymore? And the owners want expansion to dilute the talent base even more? Of course they do because the expansion fee will be extensive for the owners.
Finally, there is this encounter between Mookie and Corey.
Mookie Betts & Corey Seager share an exchange after Game 3 of the World Series‼️
Old Dodgers teammates reunited💙
🎥: @MLB pic.twitter.com/lZNrXXNMse
— Dodgers Nation (@DodgersNation) October 31, 2023
Yesterday, Dave wrote:
2015:
· Dansby Swanson – #1
· Alex Bregman – #2
· Brendan Rodgers – #3
· Kyle Tucker – #6
· Andrew Benintendi – #7
· Ian Happ – #9
Dodgers did well with Walker Buehler at 24.
2016: Not a very good year for top prospects. Dodgers pick at #20 Gavin Lux, and Will Smith at #32. This was a good year for the Dodgers, maybe because it was a bad year overall.
2017:
· Royce Lewis – #1
· Hunter Greene – #2
· MacKenzie Gore – #3
Dodgers pick at 23, Jeren Kendall. The Dodgers could not develop Jeren Kendall.
2018:
· Casey Mize – 1
· Joey Bart – 2
· Alec Bohm – 3
· Nick Madrigal – 4
· Jonathan India – 5
· Jarred Kelenic – 6
· Grayson Rodriguez – 11
Dodgers pick at #30, J.T. Ginn who they chose over Shane McClanahan (mistake, big mistake). Ginn did not sign with LAD.
2019:
· Adley Rutschman – 1
· Bobby Witt Jr. – 2
· Andrew Vaughn – 3
· JJ Bleday – 4
· Nick Lodolo – 7
· Josh Jung – 8
· Corbin Carroll – 16
· George Kirby – 20
Dodgers pick at 25 was Kody Hoese and 30 with Michael Busch. They passed on Gunnar Henderson even though more publications than not picked him for the Dodgers at #1.
2020:
· Spencer Torkelson – 1
· Heston Kjerstad – 2
· Max Meyer – 3
· Emerson Hancock – 6
· Reid Detmers – 10
· Garrett Crochet – 11
· Pete Crow Armstrong – 19
· Jordan Walker – 21
The Dodgers did very well at 29 with Bobby Miller.
2021:
· Henry Davis – 1
· Jack Leiter – 2
· Marcelo Meyer – 4
· Colton Cowser – 5
· Jordan Lawler – 6
· Andrew Painter – 13
· Matt McLain – 17
· Colson Montgomery – 22
The Dodgers reached at #29 with Maddux Bruns. Four of the above have already reached MLB, while a couple of others could make the jump in 2024. Bruns is at least 2 years before he will be considered. His command is still not very good, and that is at A+.
2022:
· Jackson Holliday
· Druw Jones
· Termarr Johnson
· Elijah Green
· Cade Horton
· Brooks Lee
· Kevin Parada
· Jace Jung
· Zach Neto
Dodgers pick at #40 was Dalton Rushing. There is nobody who can convince me that Rushing is anywhere close to reaching the heights that Jackson Holliday figures to reach. Holliday is considered to break camp with the Orioles as the starting SS next spring…at 20 years old.
2023:
· Paul Skenes – 1
· Dylan Crews – 2
· Max Clark – 3
· Wyatt Langford – 4
· Walter Jenkins – 5
· Nolan Schanuel – 11
· Tommy Troy – 12
The Dodgers drafted Kendall George at #36. I cannot think of any LAD fan who believes Kendall George will be better a MLB player than any of the above.
Dodgers development? Since the AF era, the Dodgers have one position player reach the All Stars (Will Smith) and two pitchers (Walker Buehler – twice, and Tony Gonsolin). The Dodgers have three AF era players making the regular lineup since being drafted.. Gavin Lux and Will Smith (2016) and James Outman (2018). The pitchers have done better, but they do not seem to stay healthy. They have not had one IFA stick, although Miguel Vargas did get close.
Nobody says the Dodgers do not have an advantage at developing depth. So many of their draft picks have reached MLB, though as role/bench, utility, and platoon players. But elite players? There is no question (IMO) that the top 10 draft picks (sometimes up to 20) have a far better chance at becoming elite players than where the Dodgers pick. This year, the Dodgers will pick #28. They will not lose 10 slots this year as they did the last two years.
When did Kasten say that about division titles?
I still like Doubleheaders as games 2&3 (if necessary) of the Wildcard round.
Rest toward the end of the season? I believe I had that one.
$600 million for Ohtani? I don’t think so.
Picking at the bottom of each round means the Dodgers just have to be better at scouting than everyone else. They also have to do well with international signings.
A bullpen game in the World Series. Not working out so far.
Not me. My good friend is in Phoenix and assumes I’m watching. Keeps texting me!
Rooting hard for the offseason
Jack Harris talking about what has been discussed here since the season ended. Sounds like he may read the blogs to get ideas.
His take today is Ohtani is target 1A and Yamamoto might be the best fit for target 1B. The DH will work itself out, Heyward and Kiké make some sense. Arenado Urshela, Pham, and Verdugo are mentioned as are Nola, Burnes, Snell, Glasnow, Giolito, Flaherty, Gray, Montgomery etc. Nothing new really. No mention of Lee, but Ohtani, Yamamoto and Lee seem like great moves to me. The Dodgers can afford it. The giants, Padres and Mets are reportedly in on all those guys.
In the last five instances a team has thrown a bullpen game in the LCS or World Series, they’ve averaged nine hits and seven runs allowed.
The D-backs became the latest team to experience a bullpen game meltdown. Now, the Rangers are one win from a title.
Ratings are down across the board. I have watched about 10 minutes. I watched Leclerc close down game 3 and that has been it. I have zero rooting interest. I was more intrigued by the Clippers trading for James Harden. Does that guy piss off people everywhere he goes? He hasn’t been happy anywhere. Clippers are his fifth team.
I’m suggesting the following trade:
Logan White for Billy Gasparino.
Most of the position players we love and miss were drafted by White when he worked for the Dodgers.
In fairness to Gasparino, within the next couple of years his scorecard on pitchers might turn out better than White’s. Maybe we just need to have them both here.
Just came across this article from 2019 which gives details about White’s early life that I was never aware of. He came from very humble beginnings. I think we made a big mistake letting him leave to go to the Padres. He was responsible for drafting a large number of our best players in the 2000’s.
And one last thing that surprised me. AJ Preller actually worked in the Dodger front office for 3 years, shortly after graduating from college in the early 2000’s. That’s where he and Logan met.
Here’s the link for those who are interested:
Painful childhood helped shape critical Padres cog Logan White – The San Diego Union-Tribune (sandiegouniontribune.com)
https://theathletic.com/5015723/2023/11/01/mlb-free-agency-pitcher-projections?source=user-shared-article
MLBTR just reported that the Padres had to take out a $50MM loan to make payroll this year and that they are looking to reduce payroll by $50MM in 2024.
For those of you who spend time on Baseball Trade Values, they’ve completely redone the site with lots of upgrades, including two new subscription tiers (but for us cheapskates we can still access the regular stuff at N/C). And the regular stuff has been made a lot faster.
https://t.co/nvmXgr0t67
This announcement seems to coincide with what I have said about LAD’s interest in Ohtani as international marketing strategy. I can see that happening.
Congratulations Texas Rangers!
Welcome to the off season. If you’re a Dodger fan, the off season is much more exciting and interesting than the post season.
We may not get the parade this year but I think we should be allowed a march around the block.
This year’s champs featured Seager (WS MVP), Sborz (got the last out) and Eovaldi (pitched 6 scoreless innings and has a 10-1 record in the post season). All former Dodgers. You’re welcome, Texas.
I wonder if Bochy is going to start another every-other-year streak, but this time in odd numbered years?