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Dodgers vs Padres Game 1 Starting Pitchers and Positional Comparative Breakdowns

We learned late Monday that the NLDS Game 1 starters will be RHP Mike Clevinger vs LHP Julio Urias.  On first glance this looks to be a clear advantage to LAD.

  • Julio Urías – 175 IP, 2.16 ERA (NL #1, MLB #2), 0.96 WHIP, .199 BA
  • Julio Urías vs San Diego 2022 – 4 GS, 24.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, 3 HR

 

  • Mike Clevinger – 114.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .233 BA
  • Mike Clevinger vs LAD 2022 – 3 GS, 13.0 IP, 9.69 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 5 HR

 

Urías vs. Padres Batters:

  • Manny Machado – 9/25, .360/.407/.840/1.247, 4 HR
  • Wil Myers – 3/23, .130/.259/.174/.433
  • Juan Soto – 1/16, .063/.167/.250/.417, 1 HR
  • Jake Cronenworth – 2/15, .133/.235/.400/.635, 1 HR
  • Jurickson Profar – 2/14, .143/.200/.143/.343
  • Austin Nola – 3/13, .231/.231/.231/.462
  • Josh Bell – 3/9, .333/.400/.333/.733
  • Ha-Seong Kim – 0/9 with 6 walks, .000/.400/.000/.400
  • Trent Grisham – 0/7, .000/.125/.000/.125
  • Brandon Drury – 1/5, .200/.333/.200/.533

 

Mike Clevinger vs LAD Batters:

  • Mookie Betts – 7/14, .500/.588/.714/1.303
  • Joey Gallo – 1/12, .083/.214/.083/.298
  • Trea Turner – 4/10, .400/.455/.400/.855
  • Will Smith – 4/7, .571/.625/1.429/2.054, 2 HR
  • Freddie Freeman – 1/7, .143/.125/.571/.696, 1 HR
  • Max Muncy – 2/6, .333/.333/.833/1.167, 1 HR
  • Trayce Thompson – 2/5, .400/.400/1.000/1.400, 1 HR
  • Cody Bellinger – 0/4, .000/.200/.000/.200
  • Chris Taylor – 1/3, – single and walk
  • Justin Turner – 1/3, – single and walk
  • Gavin Lux – 1/2, – single
  • Austin Barnes – 0/2
  • Hanser Alberto – 1/1, double

 

The Dodgers are a better hitting team against RHP.  The Padres have 2 LHP starters…Blake Snell and Sean Manaea.  Snell has given the Dodgers problems in the past and he has been given problems by LAD hitters.  Also the Dodgers hitters work him to build up the pitch count.  Dodger hitters own Manaea.

 

Game 2 pitchers will be Yu Darvish vs Clayton Kershaw

  • Clayton Kershaw – 126.1 IP, 2.28 ERA, 0.942 WHIP, .206 BA
  • Clayton Kershaw vs San Diego 2022 – 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 0.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 0 HR

 

  • Yu Darvish – 194.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .207 BA
  • Yu Darvish vs LAD 2022 – 4 GS, 25.0 IP, 2.52 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 4 HR

 

Position by Position Comparative Breakdown

Catcher

  • Will Smith – .260/.343/.465/.808; +7 DRS
  • Austin Nola – .251/.321/.329/.650;  -10 DRS (combined with Alfaro)
  • Big Advantage – Dodgers

1st Base

  • Freddie Freeman – .325/.407/.511/.918 – MVP Candidate, Gold Glove Winner
  • Josh Bell – .266/.362/.422/.784
  • Big Advantage – Dodgers

2nd Base

  • Gavin Lux – .276/.346/.399/.745
  • Jake Cronenworth – .239/.332/.390/.722
  • Because of the late season injury, and his resultant slump…
  • Small Advantage – Padres (although I could be convinced otherwise)

3rd Base

  • Justin Turner – .278/.350/.438/.788
  • Manny Machado – .298/.366/.531/.897 – MVP Candidate, Gold Glove Winner
  • While JT may have been a top 5 hitter from June it remains…
  • Big Advantage – Padres

Shortstop

  • Trea Turner – .298/.343/.466/.809
  • Ha-Seong Kim – .251/.325/.383/.708
  • Big Advantage – Dodgers

Left Field

  • Trayce Thompson – .256/.353/.507/.860
  • Jurickson Profar – .243/.331/.391/.722
  • It looks lop-sided, but somehow Jurickson Profar finds a way to be a difference maker.  With Joey Gallo or CT3 instead of Thompson, it would be advantage Padres.  But if Thompson, I think it is…
  • Small Advantage – Dodgers

Center Field

  • Cody Bellinger – .210/.265/.389/.654 – Gold Glove Winner
  • Trent Grisham – .184/.284/.341/.625 – Gold Glove Winner
  • MLB analysis used Grisham’s wild card to give the advantage to San Diego.  Based on the entire season’s work, and what Belli produced the last 7 and 15 games…
  • Small Advantage – Dodgers

Right Field

  • Mookie Betts – .269/.340/.533/.873 – 5 X Gold Glove Winner
  • Juan Soto – .242/.401/.452/.853
  • Two of the very best players in MLB.  Soto is a good OBP player because of his plate discipline and walks.  Mookie has better bat to ball skills, more power, more productive run producer, and is a superior defender. Soto walks more, but Mookie is more of a difference maker in most every other metric.
  • Advantage – Dodgers

DH

  • Max Muncy – .196/.329/.384/.713
  • Wil Myers – .261/.315/.398/.713
  • Since Max was able to successfully alter his hitting approach, he has been a different hitter.  For September Max hit .259/.376/.506/.882.
  • Advantage – Dodgers

Pitching

  • Overall
  • LAD – ERA 2.80 (#1 MLB), WHIP 1.05 (#1 MLB)
  • SD – ERA 3.81 (#11 MLB), WHIP 1.20 (#9 MLB)

 

  • Starter
  • LAD – ERA 2.75 (#1 MLB), WHIP 1.04 (#1 MLB)
  • SD – ERA 3.80 (#13 MLB), WHIP 1.19 (#9 MLB)

 

  • Reliever
  • LAD – ERA 2.87 (#2 MLB), WHIP 1.05 (#1 MLB)
  • SD – ERA 3.83 (#14 MLB), WHIP 1.21 (#8 MLB)

 

  • San Diego’s pitching is good, but not as good as the Dodgers.
  • Advantage – Dodgers

 

How anyone can say the LAD pitching is inferior to San Diego’s is incredulous, and yet I continue to read Dodgers fans comments about San Die

ego’s pitching superiority.  San Diego may get hot for the series, but they are clearly not a superior unit.

 

Braves over Philadelphia

Houston over Seattle

Cleveland over NYY (I do like Cleveland’s pitching)

and

Dodgers in 4

 

 

 

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Sam Oyed

I think we can all deal with the growing pains. Appreciate this site and your efforts to keep it going.

Badger

You’ll figure it out. This site is as good as any I’ve visited, better than most. Your audience is going to grow.

Dodgers favored -222, 7 runs O/U. I’ll take the Dodgers and the over – 5-3.

OhioDodger

Great site Jeff. I read it every day. Thanks for all your efforts.

Singing the Blue

With your astute commentary Jeff, and the wisdom that the rest of us add on a regular basis, it’s no wonder that your site is being overrun with readers.

So far, it’s been a bad day for Aces. First Fried, then Verlander. Cole had better watch out.

We don’t have to worry about Julio because no one outside of L.A. considers him an ace.

I’m a bit surprised to see Vargas on the roster instead of Alberto, but I’ll bow to the wisdom of the front office. I guess they thought Miggy’s bat was more important than Hanser’s defense.

Also, surprised to see May included for this series. Somehow I expected they would wait until the NLCS. Again, AF and gang know better than I do.

Bullpen seems strong, assuming they’re all healthy. Although Ferguson hasn’t been great for the past few weeks, I’m still surprised he wasn’t included if healthy. Based on his comments about being forced to the IL earlier this season, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him traded this winter. I think that relationship may be broken.

NLDS MVP – Trayce Thompson

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