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40 Man Rosters To Be Set Today

Today by 1:00PM (PST), the Dodgers will learn if Tyler Anderson has accepted the LAD QO.

Today, no later than 3:00, the 40 man rosters need to be submitted.  Right now, the Dodgers have 33 on the 40 man.  Clayton Kershaw has supposedly agreed to a one year deal, and he will need a spot on the roster.  I do not understand the delay in announcing the deal.

If Tyler Anderson accepts the QO, then he will need to be added.  With Kershaw and TA, the 40 man goes to 35.  I do not expect the Trevor Bauer arbitration to be resolved by the 40 man roster set deadline.  As of right now, he is not on the 40 man.  He is suspended, and will remain so until the arbitration panel makes their ruling known.

So I am assuming that Tyler Anderson will accept the QO and Kershaw will get a 40 man spot.  That will bring the total to 35.  I am also assuming that there will not be any additions to the 40 man via trade or FA signing before the submittal.

Here is my projection for the 5 remaining spots on the 40 man. The first four are pretty much consensus choices:

  • Diego Cartaya – C – Age today – 21.2
  • Michael Busch – 2B/LF – Age today – 25.0
  • Andy Pages – OF – Age today – 21.9 – Big AFL Season
  • José Ramos – OF – Age today – 21.9 – Big AFL Season

https://www.mlb.com/news/andy-pages-jose-ramos-continue-to-shine-and-grow-in-afl

My final prediction is RHP, Carlos Duran, over OF Jonny DeLuca.  I do not see the Dodgers protecting 3 OF.  I like DeLuca, but I think there is more of a risk that Duran would be drafted more than DeLuca.  I also think age is an issue.

  • Carlos Duran – RHP – Age today – 21.3

Players who are more likely to be possibly drafted.  Players listed by age:

  • Jonny DeLuca – OF – Age today – 24.3
  • Ryan Ward – OF – Age today – 24.7
  • Hunter Feduccia – C – Age today – 25.4
  • Drew Avans – OF – Age today – 26.4
  • Ryan Noda – 1B – Age today – 26.6

Each of the five above will be protected on the AAA roster, but will remain eligible for the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft.

I think Hunter Feduccia is an outside candidate to be protected.  Hunter is one of the very best fastball hitters in MiLB.    Per Prospects Live:

“There is nobody in the entirety of professional baseball who saw as many fastballs, and matched Feduccia in both contact rate and wOBAcon. He also showed no cracks based on location, speed, or movement.” 

He also plays a position that is devoid of much quality at the highest levels.  My thinking here is that perhaps the Dodgers can protect Hunter, and can then include Feduccia in a trade package to a team than needs catching.  He could be a good backup catcher and could conceivably get starts against a good fastball pitcher.

While Carlos Duran is still considered a SP, he is still a 2-pitch pitcher.  He has a plus fastball and a double plus slider.  But that is it. His 3rd pitch is a well below average changeup. If not protected, he is a huge possibility to land and stick as a back end reliever.  While the Dodgers are not apt to push their prospects, most other teams have no qualms.  Atlanta just produced a 21 year old ROY (CF Michael Harris II), and a 23 year old #2 ROY (RHSP Spencer Strider).  I do not think they would be opposed to reach for a 21 year old with a 60 fastball and a 70 slider for a high leverage late inning reliever.  He is a clear cut potential to be a MLB closer.  That is why I would want to protect him.  I believe he will be drafted and stick at the MLB level.

I cannot see Ryan Noda being protected, but IMO he is an excellent candidate to be drafted.  He could be a good LH bat coming off the bench and a spot starter at 1B.  He can also play some corner OF.  It would be hard to ignore a AAA player batting .259/.395/.474/.869.  He had 25 HRs and 90 RBIs.  He may not be a GG 1B, but he is a solid defensive 1B.  He made 5 errors in 802 chances (891.1 innings).  Could he become another Christian Walker, who was a poor defensive 1B when he first replaced Paul Goldschmidt, as a 28 year old?  He is now a slugging GG 1B.

Jonny DeLuca had a fantastic season, but he got injured in early August and was out for the season after August 6.  For the season, DeLuca batted:

  • AA – .298/.359/.606/.965 – 104 AB – 7 HR
  • A+ – .245/.343/.516/.859 – 277 AB – 18 HR
  • Overall – .260/.347/.541/.888 – 381 AB – 25 HR – 73 K, 45 BB – 17% K rate

Did he have a good enough season to get drafted and remain on a MLB roster?

I do not believe there is much risk in Drew Avans or Ryan Ward being drafted in the MLB phase.    But they would be picked up in the MiLB phase if not protected at AAA, which I suspect they will be.

The Rule 5 draft will be held on the final day of the 2022 Winter Meetings, Wednesday December 7.

What say you on those I have tabbed for protection?  Anyone else see any sleepers to be protected?

 

 

 

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Singing the Blue

I’m going to re-post a link to a rundown on pitchers with excellent breaking balls which I posted to your last article (apparently just before you posted this one) and which included a fair amount of info on Duran. Based on what you have said, Jeff, and what this article contains, I would be surprised not to see Duran added to the 40-man.

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/13/really-good-minor-league-breaking-balls

You say you don’t expect any additions before the deadline, but there could be subtractions via trade or dfa. Bickford and Bruihl strike me as two who may be on the bubble. And, of course, if they have decided not to tender Bellinger a contract, they might as well do that today in order to protect an extra player.

It’s going to be a very busy day in Rosterland.

Fred Vogel

Even if he can resurrect himself this year, the Dodgers and Scott Boras will find it virtually impossible to agree on any long-term contract going forward. Bellinger has proven himself to be uncoachable. I’m fed up with his lazy, me-first attitude.

Oldbear48

Well Fred, you are the only one who thinks he is lazy and uncoachable. I have read several reports that Bellinger has a great work ethic. That his that way is your opinion. Not the opinion of those who matter and make the decisions. They can always trade him during the season if he is making progress.

Bumsrap

Maybe if Cody becomes the difference between staying below the CBT and its accompanying reset, the Dodgers could non-tender him.

Bumsrap

Yes, but most of that business standpoint goes away if they go over the CBT without Cody. At that point, what’s a few million more?

Bumsrap

Once they are over the CBT, open the checkbook and try again next year to get under the CBT. I assume Verlander would be a 1 year contract.

Bluto

I do think a change is needed.

But if Belli, like Carpenter, is not listening to the hitting coach here what hope does he have if he doesn’t listen elsewhere?

Bumsrap

The harder he works the straighter he stands.

Bluto

Hey Jeff,

Curious where you red that on Heaney?

FanGraphs seemed to imply the Dodgers pitching dev team was much more involved.

The Sweeping Success of the Overhauled Andrew Heaney

In short order, the Dodgers have worked with Heaney to rebuild his mechanics, adjusting his arm slot, correcting his tendency to become too rotational, and placing him in the middle of the rubber instead of moving from side to side in search of a fleeting advantage. Their biggest move, however, was to junk Heaney’s curveball, which had below-average horizontal and vertical movement, in favor of a sweeper, a popular new variant of the slider that gets more horizontal movement. According to Sarris, on the Dodgers’ staff alone, seven pitchers including Buehler, Julio UríasBlake Treinen, and Evan Phillips added a sweeper or adjusted their breaking balls to become one last year (Urías calls his version a slurve). Wrote Sarris in October. “[F]or most Dodgers sliders, the difference between the spin axis the batter sees, and the movement he expects from that spin axis — a phenomenon known as seam-shifted wake — is significant. That unexpected movement is up and out, so these sliders generally have less drop and more sweep than they appear they will as they spin out of the hand.”

Bluto

Really appreciate the response.

I have no real clue how to appraise hitting or pitching coaches. Where the club’s begins and where the individual’s coach’s end.

Pitching injuries! A mere mention of this allows me to bring up Passan’s great book.

Singing the Blue

Sometimes people don’t listen until they hear what they want to hear. Then they listen very carefully.

Badger

If Bellinger (or anyone for that matter) were to hit .350 or better against first pitch get me over fastballs the coaches would shut up about it.

Oldbear48

Anderson signs a multiyear deal with the Angels per Jeff Passan.

Fred Vogel

A three-year deal for $39M, foregoing a one-year deal of $19.65M. I’m not a CPA but how does this make any sense?

Singing the Blue

I wonder if the fact that the shift is being eliminated and Anderson is basically a ground ball pitcher had anything to do with the fact that Andrew didn’t try to match the Angels offer.

Maybe this means we’re going big game hunting (deGrom, Verlander, Rodon)
Or giving the kids a chance (Pepiot, Stone, Miller, Grove)

Or going to the retread pile (Cueto, Quintana, Clevinger)

Bluto

Per Rosenthal: Dodgers consider themselves deep in major league talent. May only pursue high-end short term deals.

And I quote, apologies if already quoted:
If you’re the Dodgers…why would you carry $280mm payroll when you can reach the postseason at a lower amount and stand perhaps the same chance of winning the WS if the team gets hot at the right time?

He did NOT say crapshoot anywhere in the article.

He also mentions that Verlander may see the Dodgers as an option and that Adames is unlikely to move.

Last edited 16 days ago by Bluto
Singing the Blue

I don’t see any way that Andrew goes into the season with just Urias, May, Gonsolin, Kershaw and the young guys.

Gonsolin and Kershaw both have recent injury history so certainly can’t be depended upon for a full season worth of starts.

Pepiot and Grove haven’t really proven themselves at the MLB level yet and Stone and Miller haven’t even been promoted yet.

It seems to me that throwing some large $ at Verlander or deGrom for a short deal would bring an ace to share those duties with Urias and let the youngsters slowly work their way into the rotation over the next couple of years since there’s always room for at least 8 starters during the course of a season.

Badger

I believe that once in the playoffs the Dodgers chances at winning the World Series were somewhere near 33%, Houston’s odds were at or near 16%. What are the odds at a craps table? I think I read 22%. A roll of the dice fits as far as I am concerned.

I agree with your take on the two strike approach. I also am a firm believer in the Dead Red approach on strike one. Jump on it and you are more likely to get ahead in the count the rest of the night. I hate strikeouts too, but we scored more runs than anybody else. That in itself is a strong argument to not change anything.

Singing the Blue

List is out, just four players protected:
Cartaya
Busch
Pages
DeLuca

No Ramos, no Duran.

Maybe AF feels nobody would roster Ramos for a full year so he wouldn’t be taken in the draft.

I think someone would take a chance on Duran, so maybe he’s part of a trade we haven’t heard about yet.

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