I am mildly surprised at the list of MiLB players added to the Dodgers 40 man. Or more accurately, I am mildly surprised by some that were not protected. Diego Cartaya, Michael Busch, and Andy Pages were no-brainers. I thought DeLuca could be added if the Dodgers selected 5 or 6 to the roster. Those were the only four that were protected.
I do not understand how the team can protect Eddys Leonard and Jorbit Vivas in 2021 because of what they did in A Ball, but not José Ramos this year when they had room. Ramos is rated higher than either Leonard or Vivas on the LAD Top 30 prospects. I would not have considered Ramos had it not been for the addition of Leonard and Vivas last year.
I concur with those who believe he was not protected because it is relatively inconceivable that he could stay with a ML club for a full year. But I said that last year with both Leonard and Vivas. That being said, I can see Pittsburgh or Oakland or Cincinnati possibly giving it a try. But I think there is a better chance that Ramos will be the Tulsa RF next year.
Where I am totally surprised is the non inclusion of Carlos Duran. His slider is so special that he can stick on a ML roster in a relief role for all of 2023. It is not like they were up against the limit. Their 40 man sits at 37. The announcement of Kershaw’s signing could coincide with the non-tender of Cody Bellinger, or they could be at 38 when Kershaw’s signing is official.
To the other news of the day. Tyler Anderson chooses not to accept the LAD QO and instead signed a 3 year $39MM deal with LAA. Apparently the Dodgers were not going to go 3 years for TA.
There is nothing to read into the Dodgers not signing TA. They chose not to for whatever reason. I do not think that it portends for an austerity program on the horizon. I also do believe that they thought he could replicate what he accomplished in 2022, or they would not have committed to nearly $20MM for a one year deal.
But where do the Dodgers go from here with their rotation? Right now it is a big question mark. The rotation is Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May. Kershaw and Gonsolin spent considerable time on the IL last year. Kershaw visits the IL every year now (since 2015). Gonsolin has lost a lot of time to the IL the last two years. Are these pitchers going to now become 180 innings pitcher for 2023? Or should AF/BG consider them probably for the IL in 2023. Dustin May will be pitching in his first full season since TJ surgery in 2020. What kind of pitch or inning limitations will be put on Dustin? Ryan Pepiot will probably be given the first shot at being #5.
Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone should start out the year in AAA. I can hear it now. All of the Dodger fans who believe that every LAD prospect is headed for the HOF will remind us that Clayton Kershaw did not pitch in AAA. The Dodgers DO NOT HAVE a Clayton Kershaw anywhere in their system. Of course they have good pitchers, and maybe 1 or 2 can reach #2, but the bulk will be #3 – #5 rotation types. I think Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan could surprise and vault to a #2 pitcher. Their “stuff” is that good. Their consistent command? After that???? I am not predicting they will rise to a #2, but it is conceivable. And when I say #2, I am talking about a LAD #2, not Pittsburgh.
For me Gavin Stone is an enigma. He had an unbelievable year in 2022. He will be 24 for 2023 and will start in AAA. That is all good. He has three pitches, all above average, and two are considered plus pitches: fastball and change. But there are too many talent evaluators who believe he is a reliever. Why? IMO there is more reliever risk in Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove than in Gavin Stone.
Stone has continued to excel at every level he has been at. He pitched 121.2 innings in 2022. He blitzed through three levels, and ended up with a 1.48 ERA. In his 121.2 IP he had 168 strikeouts and only 44 walks (3.81 ratio). His K/9 was 12.43, his BB/9 was 3.25. He allowed a total of 3 HRs all year (0.22 per 9 IP). That is not against rookie level competition, and they are too good to ignore.
Stone and Miller will get their shot in ST. Let the competition begin.
But the Dodgers are not a low cost team. If they have a need they will find a way. Last year the Dodgers, with the addition of both TA and Andrew Heaney, had 6 starting pitchers to start the season. It was not enough.
I do not believe the Dodgers will be in the discussion for Carlos Rodón. They did not want to go 3 for $39MM for a pitcher they knew, they are not going to pay the projected $140MM and 5 years for Rodón, with loss of draft pick and international bonus money attached.
Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander are more likely to be signed by LAD than Rodón. But if deGrom wants 4 years, the Dodgers are walking away. If Verlander wants 3 years guaranteed, I do not think the Dodgers will be in the discussion very long. Will Verlander get a good LAD 2-year offer and then go back to Houston owner Jim Crane and get 3? MLBTR has Verlander at 3 years and $120MM. I do not think AF/BG would do that, but Houston will.
That leaves the next tier of FA and MLBTRs projections..
- Kodai Senga – 5 years $75MM
- Chris Bassitt – 3 years $60MM – Has a QO attached. – Nope
- Jameson Taillon – 4 years $56MM
- Taijuan Walker – 4 years $52MM
- Sean Manaea – 4 years $52MM
- Andrew Heaney – 3 years $42MM
- Noah Syndergaard – 3 years $36MM
- Nathan Eovaldi – 2 years $34MM – Has QO attached and Boston is working on a multi year deal
If AF/BG were not willing to go 3 years with TA, how are they going to agree to 3 or 4 years for pitchers that TA was better than last year. The one exception is an unknown: Kodai Senga. I cannot see AF/BG going 5 years for a pitcher when they have their homegrown pitchers waiting at ML minimum. But I do see San Diego checking in for Senga. Preller does not have the same concern with longer term deals for pitchers or position players.
IMO, the biggest hole LAD has is in their SP. They still have holes in CF and SS that need to be addressed, but they can both be addressed internally or with a stop gap ML veteran. José Iglesias fits this hole. Not ideal, but adequately enough to put together a playoff team. If the internal players do not pan out, there is always the trade deadline where it should be easier to find a position player than a playoff caliber starting pitcher. And I do make that distinction of playoff caliber.
To build for a championship team, you better have the starting pitching. I still fervently believe the Dodgers will trade for that game changing Ace, or at the very least a dependable #2.
It has been reported that Milwaukee is more likely to trade Corbin Burnes than Willy Adames. Will it happen? We were led to believe by many that Josh Hader would never be traded by Milwaukee, and yet he was. It is more than probable that Burnes will be the SP on opening day for Milwaukee.
What about Brandon Woodruff? His arbitration projection is $11MM. He would slide in nicely at #2 or #3 if Kersh is healthy. The prospect capital would be less than for Burnes but it will be steep.
I know it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY, but I am not getting off the Shane Bieber train.
If the Dodgers were so inclined, they could absolutely put together a package for any of the three. Will they? Probably not.
Maybe Cristian Javier with Houston. Houston would say no and try to push them to José Urquidy. If they are looking for a #3 or #4 AF/BG would listen.
I purposely did not include Pablo López here because he is not at that level. He is someone you look at, at the deadline if you need a mid-rotation starter. Although I would take a flyer on Trevor Rogers. He is a wild card, and Miami may ask too much in return. But he may be worth a gamble in the Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson mold, but at a much less cost.
They will probably be looking for a repeat of last Winter. Look more at the lightning in a bottle types[ one year with low cost.
- Michael Wacha
- Mike Clevinger
- Seth Lugo
- Drew Smyly
- Corey Kluber
- Johnny Cueto
Or maybe a slightly perceived upgrade:
- Jose Quintana
- Zach Eflin
My first choice would be a trade for an Ace. Followed by Justin Verlander. Followed by…Let the Kids Play…Pepiot, Grove, Miller, Stone, Jackson. But then again what do I know?
Keith Law touches on this in a way that perfectly summarizes why its such a lovely time to be a Dodgers fan. The short of it is, dont worry
But its long and its paid content:
https://theathletic.com/3901101/2022/11/15/tyler-anderson-angels-dodgers?source=user-shared-article
He specifically said the Dodgers would be fine. I do not think I ever hinted that they would not be fine. If I gave you that impression, let me be clear. The loss of Tyler Anderson will not prevent the Dodgers of having a fine team next year. I know fine is good enough for you. I hope for and expect better than fine.
At least he didn’t gush over the rookies and say that one of them could replace Anderson. Like plug and play.
I do not believe the Dodgers will be in on deGrom. Verlander could very much be an option, but I still do not believe the Dodgers will go more than 2 years for a 40 year old pitcher.
I am still holding out hope for a trade for Corbin Burnes, who appears to be the best pitcher to be considered remotely available.
But if it is Jameson Taillon, I can get behind a #4 starter. He qualifies to keep the Dodgers fine. But he would have to significantly improve to simply equal TA’s metrics. What I do like about Taillon and why he would be a good #4 is that he is an innings eater, just like TA.
TA – 178.2 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.002 WHIP, 3.31 FIP, 163 ERA+, 4.0 fWAR, 4.3 bWAR
Taillon – 177.1 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 3.94 FIP, 100 ERA+, 2.3 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR
100% they will be fine. We all know they will be fine. They’re always fine. That’s what makes being a dodger fan so great these days I didn’t mean to imply anyone thought it wouldn’t be fine.
That’s why the article was so good. It’s so true.
Terry Francona (Cleveland) and Buck Showalter (NYM) were voted AL Manager of the Year and NL Manager of the Year respectively.
Today we learn of the league’s CY winners. I suspect that the winners will be Justin Verlander, Houston (AL) and Sandy Alcantara, Miami (NL).
Dennis Santana was traded from Texas to Atlanta for cash considerations.
Arizona and Cleveland made a small trade that will probably benefit both organizations. Cleveland traded 23 year old RHRP Carlos Vargas to Arizona for 23 year old RHSP Ross Carver. Vargas has the ability to become a late inning high leverage reliever. He was recovering from TJ surgery in the beginning of the season. The season started out rough for him, but by the time he got to AAA he was tremendous. Here are a couple of twitter videos from an article that STB shared with us yesterday.
Cleveland will try to work their magic with developing starting pitchers. I would not bet against them.
I really have no clue what they’re planning. I thought retaining Anderson made a lot of sense. 13 million per year for an innings eater on what could be a young staff, doesn’t seem too bad. Going by Friedman’s comments stating they’ll prioritize starting pitching this off season, I assume that means upgrading the starting staff. Curious who they view as an upgrade?
Senga’s profile does sound like he has superior stuff to Anderson, especially with the strikeout pitches. The other mid tier free agent names don’t strike me as upgrades or substantially cheaper. Rodon still has the injury past that scared teams last off season. Astros wouldn’t let the reigning Cy Young winner walk would they? Degrom could make the most sense. Dodgers are familiar managing frequent DL visits and aren’t necessarily looking for a staff ace, but a post season ace. Missing half the year, but winning 4 post season games would justify the obscene salary. Does blank check Cohen really let him walk though? The Burnes/Adames trade idea makes a lot sense and Dodgers have the right pieces. Maybe we only have one blue chip prospect, but Brewers don’t have an elite catching prospect. The Gonsolin/Lux idea replaces their lost production with more controllable years and there are more prospects to add. It’s almost the kind of deal I wish we’d make except from the Brewers end of it. Trading for Burnes would either mean a two year rental or waving Julio goodbye in two years. Or both. Maybe Friedman’s comments on the pitching priority was more about filling the staff than upgrading it? Maybe it’s a year to home grow and step back from win now. I have no idea, just trying to read the tea leaves.
Does May need to be used cautiously because he had surgery? At his young age? Did Verlander just come off the same surgery and pitch 175 innings at 39 yrs old? Isn’t Verlander having a resurgrnce late in his career, kinda like Barry Bonds?
Cautious with pitchers after surgeries is who the Dodgers are. Julio Urías had shoulder surgery at the end of June 2017. It was supposed to take 12-14 months, and he did make it back right around 14 months in September 2018 and pitched in 3 mop up games. 2019 he should have been good to go, but pitched 79.2 innings. In 2020, he pitched 55 innings in 10 starts and 1 relief, but averaged 80 pitches. It wasn’t until 2021 when the reins on Julio were lifted.
Dustin May is very similar. He is young and has very few innings of ML pitching. 110.2 IP in his 3 pre TJ surgery years.
Something similar with Walker Buehler. TJ surgery in summer of 2015. He came back at the tail end of 2016 with 5.0 IP. In 2017, he threw 88.2 innings. In 2018 they started to let him lengthen out and he went 137.1 IP. It wasn’t until 2019 when he was fully “released” with 182.1 IP.
Caleb Ferguson – Surgery Sept 2020. First game back May 16 (20 months) optioned back to OKC for 3 weeks. Back on the IL June 20, that Ferguson said was being overly cautious.
I am not saying that the Dodgers were wrong or that they will definitely limit May’s innings. The trend just says that May’s innings next year will be limited. He may end up in the bullpen like Julio did when he first came back to limit his innings.
You can forget Verlander. Reported on MLBTR today that he is seeking Scherzer type deal. If LA wasn’t going to pony up that kind of cash for Scherzer, no way they pay it for Verlander. Mariners traded for OF Teoscar Hernandez
I saw that, but that actually gives me hope that LAD could still be in it. They will not go 3 years, but apparently neither is Houston, right now. But Houston could change. It could come down to the best 2 year deal for Verlander. The article pointed out that Houston owner, Jim Crane, is only comfortable with a 2 year $60MM to $70MM guarantee. Verlander respects and likes Crane. It may be another one of those where the Dodgers successfully build the price up only for the favored team to beat it.
But there is hope. Verlander may want a Scherzer type deal, but I am not so sure who would give him 3 years guaranteed. Especially since Scherzer pitched 34 innings less last year than the year before, and it was the least number of starts and IP since his 2008 rookie season (not counting 2020 when he did max out his starts). This was the first year of his contract. Is he starting to slide health wise? You know that is going thru the minds of the decision makers.
Would anyone pay Scherzer the contract he got last year after his 2022? I guess Steve Cohen would.
Toronto traded RF Teoscar Hernández to Seattle for 29 year old RHRP Erik Swanson, and 22 year old MiLB LHSP Adam Macko.
Hernández is a RHH power bat with one year control. 25 HRs, 28.6% K rate.
Swanson was a key member of the Mariners bullpen and has 3 years of control remaining. 1.68 ERA in 57 games 53.2 IP.
Macko is now the Blue Jays #8 prospect. He was born in Slovakia but went to High School in Canada. He reached A+ last year.
I liked Hernández, but that could be a Yency Almonte and Nick Nastrini type comp. A little rich for someone who may not be an upgrade over Trayce Thompson, offensively, and certainly not defensively.
Toronto got a big setup reliever with an 11.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, and allowed 3 HRs. He is someone that I did not think would become available. He is exactly who the Dodgers would covet. The Dodgers do not have a proven veteran OF with that power demonstrated over the last 5 years.
Seattle got their Mitch Haniger replacement. If they can extend Hernández, that would be a big coup for them.