As I mentioned in a response yesterday, while as exasperating as blowing a lead in the 9th with your closer can be, they still beat San Diego three out of four. While we all really wanted the sweep, I think most of us would have been happy with winning 3 out of 4 before the series. But when ahead, in the 9th, with your closer on the bump, you do expect to win, and a sweep would have been even sweeter.
But all that will not mean a thing if they cannot be the Rockies at least 2 out of 3. I think it is possible that the Dodgers can roll off a 7 game winning streak against Colorado and Chicago Cubs before heading back on the road with 3 against St. Louis and 2 against LAA.
But there are cracks in the dam. The four late inning guys are either on IL or unavailable for a few to several days. Craig Kimbrel is out for at least the next couple of games. Daniel Hudson is out for the year. Blake Treinen might be. Tommy Kahnle has not offered much at all in his two years.
The more important question is where do they go for help. Currently on the roster:
- Evan Phillips
- Yency Almonte
- Brusdar Graterol
- Alex Vesia
- David Price
- Phil Bickford
- Reyes Moronta
- Craig Kimbrel (not on IL, but not available)
Other than Kimbrel, not one of them has closer experience. In fact, combined the other seven relievers have 6 saves. None of them are truly credible late inning high leverage setup men.
I am guessing that Caleb Ferguson is due to come off the IL, but they are still not going to let him go B2B games. He does have 2 saves in his short career. Then there is the seemingly little feud going on between Caleb and LAD. Caleb is not happy with how his IL stints have been handled.
“I went through a longer rehab process than what I thought — and not really by choice, but that was what the team thought was best for me. I did it. I shut my mouth and did it. And I feel like we’re kind of going back on with that.”
When he complained of forearm soreness, the Dodgers acted swiftly (too swiftly?) in placing him on the IL once again. Caleb did not agree with that decision.
“There’s just been a lot of miscommunication over the last two and a half months. Yeah, I’m just kind of tired of the miscommunication of it.”
“There was a lot of things in rehab that kind of got changed around and jerked around,” Ferguson added. “I don’t know. There’s a lot of people involved in it. Everybody has their own voice to speak on it. I don’t know. It’s kind of a hard question without trying to be [a jerk] and call a bunch of people out.”
He is eligible to come off IL. But will he? When?
Of the others in MiLB and on the 40-man, none have any saves:
I would not be comfortable with any of those coming into the game in a high leverage situation.
For now, the Dodgers are going to have to go with closer by committee until Kimbrel comes back. Start with Phillips and go from there.
The team still has 6 consecutive games and right now only 7 relievers. Kimbrel is not going on the IL. But even if he doesn’t, is he the answer? Across his last 15 games, the Dodgers closer has posted a 6.48 ERA and blown 3 different save opportunities.
I am sure that AF will find another Phil Bickford, Reyes Moronta, Yency Almonte, or Ian Gibaud to try and fix. That is generally where he goes. But closer? It is not in AF’s DNA to overspend on a closer, especially at the trade deadline.
I do find it incredulous when certain fans do not place any value on a single player being able to come in and shut down the opponent in the 9th. Forget high leverage or not. The ability to come in and close it out has great value.
But if he were so inclined, he could do a lot worse that Scott Barlow (KC). He has two years after this year of control, so there will be a cost, and KC needs so much help. There probably is not much chance of getting either Joe Barlow or Brock Burke as they have 5 and 4 years of control as relievers. It does not get any less costly ($$$) than that. Of course, I am sure AF could coax Chris Young into trading Josh Sborz back.
I think that AF believes that once his relievers all get healthy, his bullpen will be just fine. His starting rotation? My out-of-the-box suggestion would be to see if AF could get one of Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or more realistically Martín Pérez for the rotation, and then put Mitch White in the high leverage situations. I would prefer Mitch White more than say Garrett Cleavinger or Ian Gibaud. Or Brusdar Graterol, Phil Bickford, Reyes Moronta, or David Price.
Another out-of-the-box suggestion would be to promote the AA pitcher who has the best control of any of their prospects…Gavin Stone. He is not ready for the LAD rotation, but he may be ready for single inning relief. He throws strikes, and enough of them. Will the bright lights of LA be a hindrance? Could be, but we will never know until he is called up.
With the offense, there really isn’t anything more that can help than the current players start producing. I know easier said than done. I think there have only been two players with any sustained hitting streaks: Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. Mookie was hot for the Month of May. What still makes the Dodgers dangerous is that many times somebody is going to hit a mistake. Last night it was Trayce Thompson after JT broke up the perfecto and CT3 worked a walk. Gavin Lux has done it, CT3 has done it, Will Smith has done it, even the trio of JT, Belli, and Muncy have done it. But night in and night out, it has been few and far between that have sustained a hot bat. JT has now hit in 5 out of last 6, so maybe he is getting his summer bat going.
Is there a game changer out there that can turn the page for LAD? I don’t think there is that one bat. Andrew Benintendi might be, but he is a LH bat. He can hit. Badger reminded us of Cincinnati’s Brandon Drury’s probable availability. I would be shocked if Pittsburgh traded Bryan Reynolds or Miami would trade Garrett Cooper. Of course, if Colorado decides that it is okay to trade inter-division, the Dodgers could look into C.J. Cron. Not likely, so why waste brain cells thinking about it.
Maybe they can do a package for another pairing of Andrew Benintendi and Scott Barlow. What would it take? What would you being willing to deal for a rental OF and a 2.5 year controlled relief pitcher? Or maybe Zack Greinke would like to finish his career in LA. Maybe the thought of another WS run would get Greinke’s juices going. It did wonders for Justin Verlander in 2017 when he was having a middling season for Detroit before being dealt to Houston. Or maybe he is just done.
Then there is the option of bringing up Miguel Vargas and/or Michael Busch. While it really couldn’t hurt, I am not sure how much it would help to have either sitting on the bench rather than playing every day at OKC. I cannot see the Dodgers putting Max Muncy or Justin Turner on the bench to make room. Vargas and Busch need the steady ABs.
The Dodgers have holes. But thus far, they have enough fingers to plug them, with the hope they can weather it all until the injured pitchers and Edwin Rios do come back. But the forward thinking baseball execs have to consider the rotation first, as that needs to be addressed for the playoffs. If they truly believe Walker Buehler will be back by September, that would fill that hole…until Tony Gonsolin hits the wall.
Taylor is hurt now too. Taylor has also struck out 101 times in 252 at bats. If my math is correct, that is a 40% clip. Way too high. I do not think Moronta should even be on the team. He almost coughed up the game last night. I think Roberts should have just started the inning with Almonte. Will they trade? Who knows.
America was celebrated all around my home last night. We sat on our back deck and watched fireworks coming from multiple directions. There are some families that spent thousands of dollars. Awesome fun shows. And free, for me.
I am not eager to make a trade. I have questions though.
Find out the answers to all the questions on the next episode; As the Justin Turn(s)er.
Some of these questions were hard for me to discern if serious.
Why would Cody want to be a doubles hitter?
With how highly the Dodgers value positional flexibility, why would you think they’d keep any player who can play multiple positions at a single position?
For the Vargas question, what does “well enough” mean? Well enough to play it more in AA? Definitely.
For Max’s trade value, SEE my above post!
Jeff knows better than I, but I think the Dodgers pitcher development is to keep prospects as starters for as long as possible?
Why would Smith move to 3rd? He’s arguably a young, cost-controlled all-star catcher. That pedigree at that position make him much more valuable than at 3rd. UNLESS, the wear and tear is a real concern. I think (stress think) that is why Biggio moved from catcher all those years ago?
Even though my thought’s value is minimal, I think the question of if the Dodgers trade for a starter is really an intriguing one!
Why would Cody want to be a doubles hitter?
…Because he might be a great line drive hitter. His big long home run swing is killing him.
With how highly the Dodgers value positional flexibility, why would you think they’d keep any player who can play multiple positions at a single position?
…They already do for Justin Smith, Betts, Trea, Bellinger, Freeman. Lux does well at 2nd and moving him to LF just to let Max play some second is forcing flexibility.
For the Vargas question, what does “well enough” mean? Well enough to play it more in AA? Definitely.
…For the Dodgers. Taylor needs a rest but if Thompson continues to do enough there is no need to rush Vargas into LF.
For Max’s trade value, SEE my above post!
Jeff knows better than I, but I think the Dodgers pitcher development is to keep prospects as starters for as long as possible?
…Jeff just mentioned Stone as a longshot closer to get through this year.
Why would Smith move to 3rd? He’s arguably a young, cost-controlled all-star catcher.
…Because a couple of years from now when Cartaya is ready, if Smith eventually were to move to third, the Dodgers might be more willing to trade Busch and or Vargas to fill a current need. I’m playing beginner chess here.
Bums, if I said Stone as a longshot closer this year, I miswrote. I think he is a longshot high leverage late inning setup guy because he throws strikes and misses bats. But I am not sure he has the mental fortitude to be a closer (yet), and I am not sure we need to find out in a pennant race. My out of the box longshot closer was Mitch White, after another starter is acquired.
I have major BREAKING news.
The really great trade simulator has updated it’s values!
They write:
Values Have Been Updated for the Halfway Mark
Now that we’re about halfway through the season, we’ve updated the trade values of all active major-leaguers in our system. And with the deadline less than a month away, we’re getting a good idea of what players will cost on Aug. 2 — or before that.
Cool. I will have to re-explore a few trade scenarios.
Does this mean I can no longer trade Hoese for Soto even up?
Fred, go see what you can get for Muncy.
For Soto, you may have to add Wilman Diaz
Done!
I can get you reliever Jorge Lopez from the Orioles for Andre Jackson and Brandon Lewis. Are you in? Lopez is having a great season, but it’s the first good season he’s ever had. I’d still do it because we are so deep that I doubt we’ll ever need Jackson or Lewis.
For everyone who was contemplating the thought of making Freddie happy and trading him back to the Braves for Olsen, the Trade Simulator has them at exactly equal value, to the tenth of a point.
Anyone interested in JD Martinez or Ian Happ?
No.
I like Jorge Lopez. But there may be some caution here. You are right that this is his first good year. The other problem is a red flag. He is having a horrible July:
3 games, 1.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 1BB, 3 K, 3 HR – 33.75 ERA, 30.11 FIP, and .800 BABIP. All runs were earned. He started the 9th in all three games. In one of the games he did not record an out, and another just one. 2 blown saves that turned into losses.
He was dominant through June. His ERA at the end of June was 0.73. It is now 1.88. His FIP at the end of June was 2.3. It is now 3.27.
But as long as you are talking about a Lopez. Andre Jackson and Brandon Lewis for the other Lopez…Pablo Lopez. 😉
Now that you’ve filled in Lopez’ July stats, I think maybe we need to pass. With all the past, present and (I’m sure) future bullpen injuries, I still think it might be wise to pick up one or two more relievers. No idea who, or for what, though.
Jackson and Lewis for Pablo, eh? Have you been attending the Bumsrap School of Trades? Although, I’m guessing Fred would also be happy to include Muncy in the deal.
I’ll trade Muncy for Vargas and let Vargas and Justin share DH and 3rd. I traded Muncy to a team called The Bench.
Okay.
Muncy 13.5
Pages 16.4
Total Value: 29.90
Kelenic 28
Total Value: 28.00
Accepted by simulator.
Kelenic again. How does he help this year? He can’t hit his weight and he ain’t that big.
It would take a team of insiders to advise anybody who thought of such a trade. So, just tossing it out. STB asked me to come up with a Muncy trade so I did. Kelenic would help the Dodgers about as much as Muncy and Pages.
Also, having Kelenic in the organization would put pressure on Bellinger to be less stubborn. Shrink the swing and hit doubles like Tommy Davis.
Kelenic would be a good trade chip. Hello Pirates.
We need guys who can hit good pitching and guys who can get good hitters out. If you’re going to trade Pages I want to get back somebody who can help win now.
I may be in the minority here, but I still believe in Muncy, Turner and Bellinger. Personally I’m still looking for pitching. Starters and relievers.
That said, I would like to see improvement in our bench. Hanser appears to be liked but I don’t believe he’s the right guy.
Trade simulator again huh.
Well, I look forward to what the new algorithms have to say. Obviously they needed an upgrade.
The Dodgers have their own simulator. Things are evolving aren’t they.
We can hold serve through the All Star break and beyond. This Division currently isn’t as scary as it once looked. It’s easy to believe we could have the best record in the NL at the trade deadline. That suggests to me the teams that need to overtake us will be more desperate to improve.
I have no precise predictions on trades at this point. I know Doc believes in the guys who have done it before. I have no idea what Friedman and management think. Guess we’ll find out.
I have not seen a corresponding roster move, but Ryan Pepiot has been named the starter for tonight’s game against the Rockies. That would put Mitch White in the bullpen. Pure guess – Reyes Moronta to be optioned to OKC.
This will go a long way to determine if Pepiot can be relied upon as a 5th starter until one of Heaney or Buehler return. If White does in fact go to the pen, it will also go a long way to determine what type of reliever will be looked for at the deadline. I would like to see White slide into the closer role for now, but my vote does not count.
Gibaut was claimed on waivers by the Reds
I am sorry, I meant 26-man active roster.
Maybe Gibaut can stick with the Reds. I really do not know anything about him. He was never on my radar. But I pull for longshots to make it.
I’ll vote with you Jeff. That gives White two votes for closer that don’t count.
There is some good news on the IL report. Blake Treinen threw a bullpen session on Monday. Depending as to how he feels after Monday, he will probably throw another bullpen session, and may be ready for a rehab assignment. He is getting closer to returning. He would be the best trade deadline pickup the Dodgers could ask for.
Padres lost again today to the Mariners.
Taylor to IL. Fractured foot I believe.
Chris Taylor out for awhile with a fracture in his left foot. We will find out who gets the call tomorrow.