We have our first post All Star game trade deadline transaction. The NYM were looking for a DH and found one on the Pittsburgh Pirates roster, Daniel Vogelbach. Vogelbach was acquired in a one for one deal for RHRP, Colin Holderman.
“The 29-year-old has tallied 278 plate appearances across 75 games, hitting .228/.338/.430 with 12 home runs. It’s not an impressive batting average, but he’s walking at a massive 14.4% clip and hitting for strong power. By measure of wRC+, Vogelbach’s production has been 18 percentage points above league average after accounting for PNC Park’s pitcher-friendly nature.”
“As for the Bucs, they’ll add a controllable arm who can step right into the major league bullpen. Holderman, 26, made his debut earlier this season. He’s tossed 17 2/3 innings of 2.04 ERA ball, striking out an above-average 26.9% of batters faced while inducing whiffs on a solid 12.4% of his offerings. Holderman has doled out a few too many free passes, but he’s averaged nearly 96 MPH on his sinker and gotten strong swinging strike numbers on his mid-80s cutter-slider.”
Both teams got what they needed. The long term benefit will probably belong to The Pirates because of the longer control of Holderman, but Vogelbach will benefit the Mets this year.
That is the tradeoff. A chance to win it all this year by trading future potential. A chance, no guarantee.
For the next 11 days the trade ideas might be flying. Dodger fans alone will have hundreds of deals that will be conjured up, and will be both acclaimed and admonished.
In the NL, LAD, NYM, and Milwaukee are currently first in their divisions. 7 teams are arguably out of the playoff picture…Colorado, Arizona, Miami, Washington, Chicago Cubs, and Cincinnati. That leaves 5 teams fighting for 3 WC spots…Atlanta, San Diego, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and San Francisco.
In the AL, NYY, Houston, and Minnesota are leading their divisions. There are really only five teams (as of this post) that are out of the playoffs…Detroit, KC, Texas, LAA, and Oakland. That leaves 7 teams fighting for the 3 WC spots…Boston Baltimore, Cleveland, ChiSox, Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Seattle.
That is 12 sellers, and it is doubtful that Arizona or Colorado will deal with LAD, so that is 10 teams that the Dodgers will make inquiries.
I personally think it is silly to think the Dodgers will be any part of the Juan Soto circus. From a baseball standpoint, I am not convinced that teams will offer enough for Washington to consummate a trade. But this trade may in fact be a business decision. The Lerner’s have the team on the sale market, and buyers are going to want to see a final disposition of Soto…either extended or traded. In addition, the buyers may (probably) want Patrick Corbin and the majority of his contract moved.
Stephen Strasburg is a lost cost. He has a no trade clause and is a 10-5 guy, so he cannot be traded without his permission. He has ZERO desire to move from Washington. He had his chance but he instructed Scott Boras to not to negotiate with other teams and instead agreed to the Nationals extension offer.
If the Dodgers do get involved in the Soto Circus, I am guessing that they would accept Patrick Corbin so that the prospect capital would not be as much. From a baseball standpoint, that would not be favorable for Washington, but because they have made it clear they are looking to sell, payroll will be a deciding factor in the price, and the Lerner’s are going to want to maximize their profit.
Regardless, I cannot see the Dodgers getting involved in this deal. My darkhorse club would be Texas. Texas is the favored organization of Scott Boras. With Marcus Semien and Corey Seager under contract for a long time, top prospects infielders, Josh Jung, Justin Foscue, Josh Smith, and Ezequiel Duran would be vulnerable, as would RHP Cole Winn and Owen White.
Most prognosticators have the Dodgers very interested in Luis Castillo. Most trade pundits believe that Cincinnati should get comparable to what Minnesota got for José Berríos last year. Blue Jays traded two highly ranked prospects, shortstop Austin Martin and right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson, both top 100 prospects.
The Athletic asked 9 of their writers to come up with a trade scenario involving Luis Castillo, and then asked Keith Law to critique it. The Dodgers beat writer is Fabian Ardaya came up with the following proposal:
The trade: Dodgers send Ryan Pepiot, James Outman and Kyle Hurt to Reds for Luis Castillo and Tommy Pham.
Law’s verdict: Depends on what the Reds think of Pepiot. I don’t believe he’ll ever have the control to start and that would make this deal way too light for the Reds.
That deal is less than what Minnesota got for Berrios, so it does seem unlikely. For the Dodgers to get Castillo (or Montas), one of Pepiot or Bobby Miller will need to be included. Of course there would be others included.
I do not believe the Dodgers will trade for Castillo or Montas. I do not believe the Dodgers will trade for a bat, except if JD Martinez becomes available.
I do think they will inquire on Tyler Mahle (maybe!), José Quintana, or Martín Pérez as a back end of the rotation type starter, and move a starter into the pen. Veteran late inning relievers will be most strongly discussed.
We have 11 days to see all of the crazy deals coming. Will there be mountains of trades or molehills? I expect more deals closer to the August 2 deadline as more teams’ fates become clearer.
Sacramento River Cats (Giants) 4 vs OKC Dodgers 10
This was the first non ACL game that Dustin May has pitched in over a year. He went two innings, allowing 1 run, 3 hits, 3 BB, and 3K. He threw 49 pitches (24 strikes). Not enough strikes, but it was a good start to his rehab.
While the story of the game is the rehab start by Dustin May, the hitting star was catcher Hunter Feduccia. In the third, 5 straight Dodgers reached base via walk (3) and singles (2). A sac fly brought home the third run. After the 4th walk, Hunter Feduccia slugged his third HR, a grand slam, for a 7 run 3rd.
Feduccia went 3-5 with 5 RBIs, and was a triple removed from a cycle. Ryan Noda was 2-4 with a HR (13). Michael Busch was 2-4. Jacob Amaya had 2 RBIs.
Wichita Wind Surge (Twins) 7 vs Tulsa Drillers 3
Bobby Miller’s yo-yo season continued. Miller returned from the Future’s Game to start the first post All Star game for Tulsa. He lasted 2.2 IP. He allowed 5 runs (4 earned) on 6 hits, 3 walks, and 2 strikeouts.
Four pitches followed Miller, and only Jose Martinez had a respectful outing. He pitched 1.0 innings and struck out 3.
Offensively, 3B Brandon Lewis went 2-4 with 2 doubles and Leonel Valera went 2-4 with a triple.
West Michigan White Caps (Detroit) 2 vs Great Lakes Loons 12
Emmet Sheehan pitched 3.0 IP. He allowed 1 run on 3 hits, 3 walks, and 2 Ks. Cole Duensing followed and allowed a HR for the final White Caps run. Four pitchers followed with Ben Harris and his 2.0 IP being the most effective. He did not allow a base runner and struck out 4 batters.
Offensively, Diego Cartaya slugged his 6th HR and knocked in 4 runs. Eddys Leonard went 2-3 with a double (25) and walk. Alex De Jesus went 2-3 with 2 walks. Aldrich De Jongh went 2-4 with a double (5) and scored 3 runs.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 12 vs Visalia Rawhide (DBacks) 0
Edgardo Henriquez had a far better outing in his 2nd game back from his IL stint. He pitched 2.0 innings allowing 0 runs with 1 hit and 1 walk with 3 Ks. Three Quakes pitchers followed with 7 shutout innings with Orlando Ortiz-Mayr being the most effective with 4.0 IP.
Yeiner Fernandez, fresh off the IL, went 2-5 with 2 HRs. Fernandez was the second LAD affiliate catcher to hit a grand slam on this night. He also hit a 3-run HR.
Yunior Garcia went 3-4 with a double (20). Hector Martinez was 2-5 with a double (5). Jake Vogel (15) and Luis Rodriguez (14) both had doubles on the night.
How great for Cody Bellinger to hit the slam. I am very happy for him. He was the third Dodger (including 2 MiLB catchers) to hit a grand slam on Friday night. See MiLB Summary above.
I don’t think the Dodgers will trade for Soto either. If they did it would be because they don’t believe Pepiot or Miller will be any better than a 4 or 5 rotation pitcher. And then they would have to decide if they only expected to have Soto through his existing contract versus who knows $$$$.
The Giants biggest problem this year is their defense. Soto is not considered a good defender. He would chew up DH at bats and the Dodgers like to use the DH to rest players and keep them sharp.
I’ll bite on Tyler Mahle, or Martín Pérez.
The Dodgers do not need Pham in their clubhouse, dugout, or anywhere else. He isn’t the type of personality the Dodgers like.
I still think the Dodgers will be interested in Drury. He plays multiple positions. Give him Muncy’s at-bats at least against lefties.
Trea has made a big difference for the Dodgers. If he leaves there will be a hole in their lineup.
Justin is hanging in there but he will be a decision for next year as well.
Hunter Feduccia is having himself a nice year.
I believe we need to put him on the 40-man this winter or risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft.
I don’t think we’ll have room to protect him and I’m almost certain someone will grab him.
With that in mind, I suggest AF might want to be sure to include him in a deadline trade. We might have had room for him on the 2023 major league roster but the Barnes extension took care of that.
Just watched Backstage Dodgers that was a report on the Futures Game players we sent. Bobby Miller up close is a stud. Cartaya has really filled out since signing at 16.
I think we can get Castillo without trading any of our top guys. Castillo isn’t helping the Reds, is arb eligible next year and will be awarded a lot of money before becoming a free agent in ‘24. They might accept a couple of pitchers not in our Top 10 prospects along with an athlete or two down the list. Castillo is leaving Cincinnati and everyone knows it.
Top two pitchers not in the top 10 are Andre Jackson (#11) and Maddux Bruns (#12). If Castillo was a rental, that might do it, but not with another year. His arbitration cost is not anywhere close to what Cody Bellinger will be getting. Castillo is making $7.35MM and was injured this year. So his arbitration cost will be insignificant to almost every (if not every) contender. It is even conceivable that a team in the selling mode could trade for him and then look to extend. Texas has $$$ and believes they can compete in earnest as early as next year. Castillo would be a good addition to their staff.
Landon Knack is #7, Nick Nastrini is #13, Clayton Beeter is #15. I honestly do not see any of those five in a starting role. I cannot see the Dodgers outbidding everyone without Pepiot or Miller in the deal. But you could right that the Dodgers could get it done with Jackson and Bruns. IMHO the Reds would hang up.
Might Badger be right if the pitchers were Tyler Mahle or Martín Pérez?
I want to challenge Ferguson and put him at closer enough times to give him a good tryout.
Going forward I wonder if Smith might move to third when Cartaya is ready. Smith could share the catcher spot with Cartaya the first year. Posey played quite a bit of first base.
The reason I wonder is my interest in Drury who could hold down 3rd until Cartaya came up. Justin would move to DH. Muncy would move to the bench or the Reds for Drury. $$ or another player (maybe a PTBNL that would be based on how well Muncy rebounded) could go with Muncy.
A big problem with a trade for Soto is the Dodgers would need the prospects they would lose on the Dodger active roster to reduce the expanded payroll that Soto would cause.
It is more plausible for Tyler Mahle or Martín Pérez. I doubt that the Dodgers would include Bruns for either. Possible for Mahle because he has an extra year. Then again, I am not a big Bruns fan, so I do not mind including him in deals. But AF will not include Bruns for Pérez. Pérez is a back of the rotation rental that could slide back to mediocrity. Maybe Kendall Williams or Hyun-il Choi.
Mahle has shoulder issues and Perez isn’t likely to be traded.
Perez maybe. Williams and Choi? I don’t follow.
There will probably be a move nobody is talking about.
We will know more about Mahle tomorrow. He is scheduled to come back on Sunday. Williams OR Choi not and, for Perez. A Williams for Perez is just about how the Dodgers acquired Williams…a 1 for 1 trade for Ross Stripling
My blog post on Sunday is about Hunter Feduccia. Hope you like it.
He’s good. Trade him for Soto.
Might be too much for Soto.