We have come to the final day for option decisions, and FA Qualifying Offers (QO). The Dodger roster turnover has been fairly significant. They had 10 players become free agents (9 from 26 man roster):
- Trea Turner
- Tyler Anderson
- Clayton Kershaw
- Chris Martin
- Andrew Heaney
- Craig Kimbrel
- Joey Gallo
- David Price
- Kevin Pillar (60 Day IL)
- Tommy Kahnle
They also had 4 players with club options that were denied (two from 26 man roster):
- Justin Turner
- Hanser Alberto
- Jimmy Nelson (60 Day IL)
- Danny Duffy (60 Day IL)
That is a total 11 players gone from the 26 man roster and 40 man. After the additions of the players from the 60 Day IL and the addition of Luke Williams, the LAD 40 man roster now sits at 33. Trevor Bauer is not included in this total.
There are 17 pitchers, 2 catchers, 8 infielders, and 6 outfielders. By the time I publish this article, Clayton Kershaw could have signed another 1-year contract for the near $17MM he signed for last year. It has been reported by Ken Rosenthal and multiple other sources that the deal is just about done. So let’s count Kershaw in that tabulation, making it 34.
The current roster configuration calculates to an estimated $218MM AAV. Here is how that is calculated. The contracts including Trevor Bauer are per Spotrac; the arbitration numbers are per MLBTR; the other components are per Spotrac and Cots.
That is nearly $15MM of available contracts below the CBT threshold. Of course, if the reports prove to be correct and Clayton Kershaw does imminently sign, I feel very comfortable in stating that his contract will take the Dodgers over the threshold.
So the Dodgers’ story cannot be completed until we all learn the fate of Trevor Bauer and Cody Bellinger. If Bauer loses his appeal, that will open up $34MM, and if Cody Bellinger is non-tendered that will free up another $18MM.
If Bauer’s appeal is successful, as much as it pains me, the Dodgers will have a starting pitcher for $34MM. And with Kershaw reportedly signing, the Dodgers 5 man rotation could be set, and the depth of Pepiot, Grove, Miller, Stone, and Jackson will be in reserve. Some will be in AAA while some will be in the bullpen. And if Tyler Anderson accepts the QO, that will produce a good starting 6. As we have learned, you can never have enough pitching. Especially quality starting pitching.
The next wave of Emmet Sheehan, Nick Nastrini, Nick Frasso, Carlos Duran, and Landon Knack will not be far behind.
I do think Belli could be a viable CF option for LAD, but not at $18MM+. But then again, it is not my money. There are unconfirmed reports that Gomes and Boras have been in discussions on contract options for Belli. Will they get something done? If money were not a factor, then I hope that AF/BG and Belli/Boras can come to an amicable agreement for one year. A former MVP deserves one more shot, even if on a short leash.
The knowledge of the plight for Bauer and Belli, will also provide direction as to how determined AF/BG will be to signing a top tiered SS.
There is still a lot of uncertainties (as it should be) on the first day of true FA. Please let the uninformed speculation begin. The 40 man rosters will be set next Tuesday. They do not need to keep a spot open for any possible FA (Anderson) until they are actually signed and a spot needs to be opened. The knowledge about Belli being tendered a contract or not, will be three days after that (next Friday). Plus, we are less than a month away from the Winter Meetings.
MLBTR has published their 50 top FA, and the speculation as to their future home and potential contract. I normally create an excel spreadsheet and monitor the FA movement. I will set that up, and this year, I will also include Keith Law’s and Kiley McDaniel’s lists for comparisons. Baseball prospectus is in the process of compiling their top 50. They have published their top 25 and will follow that up with 26-50. This is a fun process for me.
I still need to publish my thoughts on CF and pitching. I usually try to do my research in the AM, but yesterday AM, I was at the Ice Skating Rink watching my 6 year old grandson skate on TV for a local show called Good Day Sacramento. It was celebrating the 25th anniversary of the facility located in Roseville, a larger suburb in Sacramento, County. He is a budding hockey player. Below is a link of the TV spot. My grandson is the one in the white hockey jersey and helmet.
They need to be paid what they are going to be worth. They often aren’t. Kershaw has made his money, but won’t do the team any favors. 3.8 WAR in less than 130 innings. He can probably do that again. Maybe not the WAR but the innings. Looks like he’s coming back.
from 4 years ago. I doubt much has changed. It’s a very sophisticated guessing game.
Yeah, it’s difficult to project 18 year olds College players should be easier to project, but, Jeren Kendall’s abound. “In short, teams behave logically, but we don’t think that logic is uniform across baseball, and it’s fine if it isn’t across the prospect-ranking landscape, as well.”
As stated elsewhere, I’d be gobsmacked if Bauer every plays again for the Dodgers.
Elsewhere, the announcer for the OKC affiliate is reviewing the team:
Whether this is an informed or uninformed POV is a discussion for yesterday!
That was fun. Thanks Bluto.
I wonder why that team didn’t make the playoffs.
Bluto, do you think Bauer would be traded, released, or stay suspended?
Kershaw said to be paid $17M for 2023.
Giants looking to strengthen defense up the middle and get more athletic. That said, MLB Network Hot Stove threw out the idea that the Giants could go after both Rizzo and Judge. I can see the Yankees wanting Bellinger if they lost those two players.
I will guess the elimination of the shift just made Joc rich (richer).
The latter two. I can’t imagine anyone trading for him.
I could be, however, misreading the situation badly.
But I think not.
I’ll be very surprised if Bauer’s suspension is brought forward into 2023. I expect him to have that part of the suspension lifted by the arbitrator.
That said, what AF will do with him is another question entirely.
My memory may be failing me, but I thought I remembered that when the contract was originally signed it was front loaded with a player opt out in the third year. I thought the salary for year 3 was only about $10MM, but when I check a few online sources, they seem to show his 2023 salary would be $35MM with a $15MM buyout (and I’m assuming that means if he chooses to opt in, the Dodgers owe him 35 mil and if he opts out they owe him 15 mil). That means he’d have to get another team to pay him $20MM just to come out even, so I don’t see any way he opts out.
If the suspension is lifted and Bauer stays, maybe Andrew just says to hell with it, I may as well get something for my money and we’ll keep him on the roster. Let the fans scream. And while we’re at it, we’ll sign Correa and let them scream even louder. And when we win the WS they can scream again, only for a different reason.
Yeah, I don’t see anyone on the team or in Dodgers management wanting to answer regular questions about why Bauer, with both what he’s admitted to and what he’s accused of (two different things,) is on the team.
This is a very liberal city, in case people missed it.
But, we will see
I do not think Dodger management can offer any information. It is out of their hands. As of right now, he is suspended, and is MLB’s concern. Dodger management does not know what the arbitration panel will decide. If the arbitration reduces the suspension, then Dodger management will have a lot to say about it. Although as tight-lipped as they are, we will probably not learn what that decision will be until it is made. FWIW, my own opinion is that if the suspension is lifted after 1 year (as I do suspect it will be) the Dodgers are not going to pay him $35MM and let him let him pitch for another team.
The Dodgers had a very harmonious clubhouse in 2022 and they did not get too far in the tournament. Maybe a more contentious clubhouse will generate a different outcome? As STB said, throw caution to the wind and sign Correa as well. And maybe bring back Puig. Wouldn’t that be fun? Look for a different outcome…turn the page.
I can’t imagine anyone wants to go down yet another Bauer rabbit hole, but I can very easily see the Dodgers paying to be rid of Bauer.
I can see that much more easily, in fact, than seeing them pay him to pitch in front of crowds and reporters.
I don’t think LA being a liberal city translates to condoning Bauer’s values and lifestyle.
I don’t care about his lifestyle. What consenting adults do on their own time is none of my business. If he’s not guilty, then he should be able to go back to work.
Kinda my POV too.
And the woman and her account are definitely questionable.
Doesn’t represent the sentiment nor perspective of the majority of fans though.
If they cut his suspension and let him play the entire season next year, I think he and the Dodgers could go a long ways toward restoring a semblance of his not-so-great reputation, to the point where he’d be accepted by the majority of fans and teammates.
If Correa showed up at the same time, nobody would even pay any attention to Bauer.
I don’t see it, but I hope you are seeing the future correctly.
coming off what he has with no more years guaranteed, Bauer would probably be a force on the mound.
Fred, I haven’t seen any comment from you on the Giants giving Joc a QO. Did the surprise you? Do you think he’s worth 19.65 million?
As I mentioned yesterday, I’m not at all surprised that SF wants to bring him back but I was shocked that they were willing to pay him that kind of money.
In his 8 years in the league he’s made about $30MM total. Now he’s going to get another $20MM for just one year. Good for him.
Joc got a QO, it was posted on MLBTR.
I am happy for Joc and will assume he will take the QO. Seattle could use him and the Dodgers have missed him the last two years. Joc is a much better defender than his defensive stats suggest. I think suggest is a fair term for the meaningfulness of the various defensive stats.
I taped the SF games using my Extra Innings account and fast forward through most of the Giant games. The Giants must have analyzed how well Joc will benefit from the elimination of the rover.
Joc put up 2.8 oWAR last year. I wouldn’t trust he would do it again.
A QO offer says the Giants disagree.
Well, using a $/WAR of $8.5, $19.65 pays for 2.3 WAR, so with his dWAR dragging him down, he won’t get that. I’d say it could be even less. He’s an average Major League hitter, which is actually pretty good when you think about. A lineup of Joc hitters could keep a team at .500 as long as the pitching was average, which is exactly where the giants were. Getting Judge would change that for them.
Since all the stats they mentioned were done by players who were on the field, I would say we’d have to call it a UNIFORMED POV. (badaboom!)
Amazing that some of the players who compiled these excellent stats won’t even be in the organization in 2023 due to lack of roster space coupled with the Rule 5 draft.
As per Josh Thomas on Twitter:
Get to know these names now.
Here are the All-Stars and award winners from the Florida Complex League, Arizona Complex League and Dominican Summer League: https://atmilb.com/3hC36ff
C Thayron Liranzo, 122 wRC+ in his age-18 season (yep, another catcher who bangs)
DH/OF Samuel Munoz, age-17, 146 wRC+
OF Josue De Paula (I think Baseball America has mentioned him once or twice), age-17, 162 wRC+, with more walks than strikeouts
Jeff, your grandson is a skating demon. I can’t imagine that Gretzky was any faster at the age of 6. Bravo!
Holy shit. The Astros are parting ways with Click.
Who could blame Click for leaving? Team wins the WS and the owner offers him a 1 year deal. It’s like they didn’t feel they could fire him so they insulted him enough that it became Click’s decision.
It’s different with Dusty because of his age but Click is a pretty young guy.
Asst. GM Powers also fired. Must be a real treat to work for that owner.
It looks like Kershaw’s contract will be closer to $20MM, which makes total sense to me. 39 year old Charlie Morton will be making $20MM with Atlanta with a $20MM team option for 2024. If Atlanta can pay Morton $20MM, the Dodgers can pay Kershaw $20MM. Morton was a 1.5 fWAR ($11.9MM value) and Kersh was a 3.8 fWAR ($30.5MM value). If Kershaw truly wanted to go FA he would be getting a huge deal from some team. Maybe not in the deGrom or Verlander range, but close enough. I would imagine if $$$ were his driving force, Texas would make an astronomical offer. Kershaw wants to finish his career with LAD as much as LAD and their fans want Kershaw to finish his career with the Dodgers.
Just announced that Treinen had his shoulder surgery. Glad he did it quickly, but it should have happened 6 months ago.
Supposedly, he’ll be ready in about 10 months.
Reports are that Kershaw’s deal is closer to 20 million. Blake Treinen underwent shoulder surgery that will require a recovery time of at least 10 months. So, looks like he is done for 2023. Possibly could be ready by the end of August. Another report says LA is close to a 3-year deal with Anderson. It would not break my heart to see Lux at SS, Judge in RF and Mookie at 2nd.
JMO, but I’d much rather see the Dodgers sign one of the four shortstops and not sign Judge.
The Yanks and Giants are going to be throwing huge amounts of money and lots of years at Judge and I wouldn’t be looking forward to seeing how he looks during the last half of that contract. Guys his age and size usually age badly and all of a sudden.
Like you, I am not in favor of AF even checking in on Judge. Kiley McDaniel projects 9 years $324MM and MLBTR projects 8 years and $332MM. Keith Law says that he would commit $40MM AAV but for no more than 4 years. That is probably closer to his value at this stage of his career. I am hoping the Giants win this one and are stuck with an albatross contract. I cannot see Farhan going that far out on a limb. Some are saying that he wishes that he had gone harder at Bryce Harper. A younger Bryce Harper is not the same risk as an older more injury prone Aaron Judge. I think he ends up back in NYY and they are stuck with Judge, Stanton and Cole, who will not age well either. Cole will pitch a lot of innings, and get a lot of strikeouts, but he will also give up a lot of runs and a lot of HRs. RHP at NYY, what could possibly go wrong?
I could see Andrew making Judge an offer similar to what Keith Law suggested, but he’d be crazy to take it because he’d then be a free agent again at age 35 after only having banked 160 mil. No way he does that.
He can probably DH the last 5 years of a long contract and earn his money. $/WAR continues to go up and he will put butts in seats, I don’t want to see him in a giants uniform.
If a team commits $$$$$ to a shortstop they might be out of the competition for Judge.
Courtesy of Josh Thomas on Twitter:
“More Dodgers minor league transactions from yesterday, lots of guys electing free agency. Lots of notable guys on the list, but here’s a few that stand out to me:
The two I’m most going to miss are Martin and Valera.
C – Tony Wolters
C – Tomás Telis
C – Hamlet Marte
OF – Stefen Romero
SS – Abiatal Avelino
RHRP – Keone Kela
RHRP – Jose Adames
RHP – Sam Gaviglio
RHP – Parker Curry
RHRP – Hansel Robles
LHRP – Daniel Zamora
I still cannot understand why Jason Martin did not get any chance with LAD. He will only be 27 next year. He put up monstrous numbers at OKC. .285/.374/.564/.938, 32 HRs, 107 RBIs, 24.8% K rate. I suppose the negative for him was that he was LHH. The Dodgers preferred Outman. Probably a good choice. Kevin Pillar and Trayce Thompson are RH batters. Eddy Alvarez is LHH but he is also an infielder.
I too liked Leonel Valera, but the Dodgers obviously preferred Eddys Leonard and Jorbit Vivas over Valera. He was left unprotected last year and was not drafted. He was not very good offensively at Great Lakes in 2021 or early 2022. But he was a different hitter for Tulsa.
I think the Dodgers will miss Martin more than Valera. Andy Pages will be at OKC, with Drew Avans, and probably Ryan Ward. Maybe Jonny DeLuca and Buddy Reed. There will be the AAAA OF picked up as well. But outside of Pages, I cannot see any of those players putting up Jason Martin 2022 numbers.
Avans, Ward and DeLuca will all be Rule 5 eligible if not protected. I would think at least one of those guys would go in the draft.
Old friend Rylan Bannon was dfa’d by the Braves today. He was part of the Machado deal with the Orioles and eventually worked his way to Atlanta and now he’s on to another destination.
Speaking of the Machado deal, the main guy in that deal was Yusniel Diaz who just passed through waivers yesterday and was outrighted by Baltimore.