As commented on yesterday, Baseball Prospectus (BP) came out with the second Top 100 prospect list (actually 101). BP had Gunnar Henderson as the #1 prospect, just as did BA. 7 prospects were in both top 10 lists:
- Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore SS – BA #1, BP #1
- Corbin Carroll, Arizona CF – BA #2, BP #6
- Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee OF – BA #3, BP #10
- Jordan Walker, St. Louis OF/3B – BA #4, BP #2
- Andrew Painter, Philadelphia RHP, BA #5, BP #12
- Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore RHP, BA #6, BP #8
- Eury Perez, Miami RHP – BA #7, BP #11
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati SS – BA #8, BP #5
- Francisco Alvarez, NYM C – BA #9, BP #4
- Marcelo Mayer, Boston SS – BA #10, BP #13
Other 3 BP Top 10
- James Wood, Washington CF – BA #11, BP #3
- Anthony Volpe, NYY SS – BA #14, BP #7
- Jackson Holliday, Baltimore SS – BA #15, BP #9
The cream generally finds it way to the top, and they have in both in both lists to date. We still have MLB Pipeline, The Athletic, and ESPN. I suspect we will see all of these names at the top of those lists as well. Certainly not in the same order, but generally in or around the same range.
Biggest team changes:
- LA Dodgers +3
- Detroit Tigers +3
- Milwaukee Brewers +2
- Minnesota Twins +2
- Oakland A’s +2
- Seattle Mariners -2
- Cleveland Guardians -3
Changes for the Dodgers:
BP Included but not BA:
- RHP – Nick Nastrini #54
- C – Dalton Rushing #56 (Pictured)
- RHP – Nick Frasso #79
- OF – Andy Pages #90
Not Included by BP:
- RHP – Ryan Pepiot – BA #55
Included on both lists:
- C – Diego Cartaya – BA #18, BP #19
- RHP – Bobby Miller – BA #21, BP #27
- 3B/OF – Miguel Vargas – BA #30, BP #39
- 2B/OF – Michael Busch – BA #54, BP #59
- RHP – Gavin Stone – BA #56, BP #50
The Dodgers led all teams with 9, followed by Baltimore with 8. NYM, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota had 5. Seven teams had 4, seven teams had 3, three teams had 2, five teams had 1, while Atlanta was once again the only team without a top prospect.
Baltimore SS, Jackson Holliday, was BP’s top prospect from the 2022 draft, and made the top ten. Pittsburgh 2B, Termarr Johnson (31), Arizona CF Druw Jones (33), NYM C, Kevin Parada (64), Washington OF, Elijah Green (68), and NYM SS, Jett Williams (75), were also top high school draft picks from the 2022 draft. That is six high school players drafted last July who are considered six of the very best 75 baseball prospects. The high school players in the 2022 draft were considered special. It should be fun to follow them. If you are not into MiLB players, just follow Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones.
Baseball Prospectus only named four LAD prospects on last year’s list: Cartaya, Miller, Vargas, and Pages. Perhaps realizing they may have missed on some prospects in one of the top farm systems, they more than made up for it in 2023. I thought that Dalton Rushing, Nick Frasso, and Nick Nastrini were potentially top 100 for 2024, BP decided to move up the timeline. Deserving for 2023? It’s a list of PROJECTED top prospects. Who is to say which list is right or wrong? Most of the players on the list will not be stars, and many will not even make it to MLB.
It might be interesting to see how BP’s #10 prospect for LAD achieves this year at the MLB level…James Outman. He was not named to the top 101, but based on where the others were placed, he had to be close. If it were not for his age, Outman would be placed higher on the list than Pages. Then again, maybe it is because of his age that he put up the numbers he did last year in MiLB. IMO, Outman has a higher ceiling and much higher floor than does Pages. Give him the runway this year, and let’s see what he can do.
BP continues to disrespect Ryan Pepiot. He was downgraded because of his lack of command. They acknowledge that he misses bats with his fastball and change, but too often misses with those pitches in the strike zone. While he will pitch at the MLB level this year, but more as a #6 or #7 starter. I think they see Ryan as more of a Ross Stripling or Mitch White type pitcher. Maybe a Josiah Gray type with a lesser team. He has already been passed by Gavin Stone, and they do see him being passed by both Nick Nastrini and Nick Frasso, and perhaps Emmet Sheehan.
BA has Dalton Rushing as a quick riser who could make their mid-season top 100. I cannot come up with any kind of argument to dispute this. Okay, he could get injured. The scouting report says he is a bat first catcher. Why? Because he played behind uber catching prospect Henry Davis at Louisville. Some of those same scouts now believe he is good enough defensively that he perhaps should have caught over Henry Davis. Both catchers should play at MLB because of their bats. But Rushing all of a sudden is getting noticed for his defense as well. Is it GG caliber? Let’s not get crazy here. He has a power arm to go with the power bat, and continues to show progress with his hands and feet. BP thinks eventually, Rushing will pass Davis. BP has them very close this year…Davis 46 and Rushing 56. BP has Davis as the #3 catcher and Rushing #5. BP considers the DBacks Gabriel Moreno to no longer be a prospect because of service time. Even if considered a prospect, Rushing would be a top ten catching prospect on their list.
I think the two Nicks are in BA’s sights as well. BA has not been an Andy Pages advocate, and he is sliding on BP’s prospect list. It will be interesting to see where he falls in the other lists. Were his AA problems an anomaly that he is working on this winter? He is on the 40 man, so he will be reporting to ST with the Big League team, and should get a good look this Spring.
One other player to keep an eye on will be OF Josue De Paula. It is possible that he will be replacing Pages as the Dodgers top OF prospect. WAAAAYYYYY too early for him, but he has a chance to be special. I never felt that way with Luis Rodriguez, and was soundly criticized for that. I do with De Paula.
Dodgers sign 30 year old RHRP Tyler Cyr to a MiLB deal and a ST invite. Cyr made his MLB debut last year with Philadelphia, and gave up a HR in his 1/3 of an inning. Philly released him and Oakland picked him up. He pitched 13.0 innings for Oakland with a 2.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He had 16 strikeouts and 5 walks. 1 out of 3 inherited runs scored. He is an extreme longshot to get called up, but so was Evan Phillips. No I do not think he will be another Evan Phillips. But he is a RP so anything can happen, especially with the pitching Yoda.
I probably have missed a lot of trades that have been made but still, I am surprised that there aren’t more top 50 prospects being swapped between teams. It would seem a team that needs pitching would trade a shortstop for a pitcher or a team that needs several players would trade a top 10 for two top 20s or something like that.
You very rarely see prospect for prospect trades. Not just this year…but almost every year. They will package them for ML talent, but they would rather stick with their own guesses than another team’s guesses. Their scouts have determined that their prospects should be pushed. That being said, I still do not understand why the Dodgers and Reds cannot come to terms on a Pages for one of the Reds middle infield prospects trade.
Not every team’s top ten prospects have the same value. The Dodgers top ten are probably better than any other team’s top 10. Arizona’s top 5 (when including Gabriel Moreno) is probably as good as a top 5 that we have seen in a long time. But the drop off of 6-10 is considerable.
Baltimore will have a good top ten, but not quite at the level of the Dodgers.
I was thinking more about the top 10 among the top 100 being traded and less about individual teams’ top 20.
Top 10 out of top 100 lists are almost always considered untouchable. These guys are considered future super stars. No team is going to pry Gunnar Henderson out of Baltimore. Arizona said that Toronto can have Daulton Varsho, just NO on Corbin Carroll. Eury Perez is the next Sandy Alcantara for Miami. Jordan Walker is the best power bat in MiLB, and St. Louis would rather trade any of their ML OF than Walker.
The Dodgers should have drafted Gunnar Henderson when they had the chance (and were rumored to be the team to take him). Instead they took Kody Hoese (25) and Michael Busch (31) over Henderson, taken #42. Of course hindsight is perfect, but in 2019 I wrote, that if Henderson was available, I would like to see the Dodgers select him. Hoese and Busch were good selections where they drafted. I just liked the HS SS better.
I am not saying that trading prospects for prospects does not have merit. I would be in favor of that, just as I am in favor of trading draft picks (as they do in every other professional sport). It just does not happen. I just came up with a guess as to why. Teams also like to use those prospects in trades for ML talent. It is a great question, and one I would love to ask Brandon Gomes.
Jeff, would you please pass this website onto someone else and take the job of Dodger draft czar?
I agree, Fred. Surprised that prospect for prospect swaps are not made more often.
Jeff, you say that teams might prefer their own picks, but when these guys reach AA or AAA, a team’s needs might be different than they were when the prospects were drafted.
I’m in agreement that a Pages to the Reds for a middle infielder makes all kinds of sense.
I guess AF will be taking a very close look at Lux, the shortstop, between April and July and then act accordingly.
We’ve drafted a huge amount of shortstops over the past couple of years, but those guys are all years away. Come 2026. we may have a bunch to trade. In the meanwhile, I’m hoping Lux becomes our every day shortstop, even though my gut tells me he should probably be our every day second baseman.
Baltimore has two shortstops:
Why wouldn’t they want to trade one of them?
Wouldn’t they rather have two top but lower ranked prospects?
You can always take a star prospect shortstop and convert him to 2B, 3B or CF, rather than settle for two lesser prospects.
On the other hand, you might want to trade one of your shortstops for an equally high-rated starting pitcher prospect.
Anyone remember who our highest rated Top 100 pitching prospect was over the past five years or so? Buehler? How high did he get in the Top 100, or if it wasn’t him, who was it?
Julio Urías reached #4 in 2016. He was also #8 in 2015, and #64 in 2014.
Walker Buehler got as high as #13 (2018). He was #93 in 2017. Jose De Leon #24 in 2016. Yadier Alvarez #49 (2017). Grant Holmes #62 (2016) and #85 (2017). Josiah Gray #67 (2020) and #58 (2021) . Brusdar Graterol #83 (2020). Dustin May #69 (2019). Frankie Montas #95 (2016).
2016 is the last time the Dodgers had 4 pitchers in the top 100 in MLB Pipeline. Urías, De Leon, Holmes, and Montas.
Thanks for that info, Jeff.
OK, Fred, you can now trade 2016 Julio for 2023 Holliday.
By the time Holliday gets to the ML, one of the two will slide to 3B. Happens all the time. Both project to be elite players. There is room on a roster for both. If I were in charge, neither one would be dealt.
Maybe Baltimore shouldn’t but if those guys were in say a system that was weak and the big team was non competitive, then it would seem like quantity would be advantages. Vargas, Busch, and Cartaya package should at least be considered tasty.
As I have been writing ad nauseum about the Dodgers and their 93 RHP prospects. More specifically, do the Dodgers need 14 AAA and AA STARTING pitchers? Admittedly there is not a lot of trade value for John Rooney, Kyle Hurt, Kendall Williams, or River Ryan. Landon Knack at one time was considered a viable trade target, but not so much anymore. In all honesty, what would a possible return for Michael Grove and/or Andre Jackson look like? But with Michael Busch or Andy Pages as the headliner portion, there could be a decent return. Prospects are difficult to value.
Is Andy Pages (17.3) worth Noelvi Marte (25.6)? Not according to MLB Trade Simulator. Cincinnati needs catching and pitching as well. Throw in Jesus Galiz (1.7) and Maddux Bruns (3.4) and you still do not get to Marte’s value. The Dodgers could move Pages for Matt McLain (8.7) and other Reds, but who?
The prospect values are so volatile. During the year, Bruns’ value was north of 6.5. Now it is down to 3.4. I have been a lone voice in the wind in my displeasure with the Bruns pick. Have been since the day he was drafted. His best value was in a trade. Now he isn’t worth much there. Might as well hold onto him now and see if he can be resurrected. Convert him to the bullpen now. At least he is not another RHP.
First of all, I don’t care the age of a prospect. I care only how Major League ready they are. If Outman, Pepiot and Busch can give us team controlled production through their peak years, great.
I don’t have access to the gold standard list but it appears we have a handful of not top 25 prospects. What does that mean? I’m not sure. The ideas shared here sound well founded to me.
From what I see about the construction of the Dodgers, they have been pretty good at finding ways to fill in behind the $30m dollar players. This year we needed to fill a huge hole at shortstop/#2 hole hitter. We got half of that done. We needed to fill CF/#7 hitter, previously an MVP, now deemed replaceable. I think that was accomplished. Not sure. We needed to replace a middle/top of the order team captain type leader in the clubhouse all around popular good guy at third base…. uh, nope. That wasn’t done. We needed to replace an All Star starter and we needed a closer.
I don’t think we’re finished.
Sal Bando passed away at 78. He was a long time 3B with the A’s, first in KC and then Oakland. He finished his career in Milwaukee. He was a 4 time All Star and 3 time World Series Champion, including 1974 against the Dodgers. Sal Bando will always be remembered as one of the faces of the early Oakland A’s with Reggie Jackson, Joe Rudi, Bert Campaneris, Gene Tenace, Catfish Hunter, and Vida Blue. Charlie Finley put together some great teams in the early 70’s before free agency.
RIP Sal Bando. You will be remembered and missed.
Captain Sal was the leader of 3 World Series winners. An underrated player who was a grinder and came through in clutch situations. Loved watching the Swinging A’s in the 1970’s. Only the cheapness of Charlie Finley stopped them from wining even more World Series titles.
Debatable whether Outman has a higher ceiling than Pages. Sure, physically Outman could put up a Yelich season but then Pages could hit 40 hr and play good D. I know what you’re saying but wanted to push back a bit. I generally dislike ceiling arguments because they often undersell pitchers, for whom intangibles play such a huge role.