Left Field is wide open, and yet it really may not be. There is no established LF returning to LAD. Last year, CT3 was the primary LF, but he started less than half the games in LF. Ten different players started for LAD in LF:
- Chris Taylor – 71
- Joey Gallo – 28
- Gavin Lux – 24
- Trayce Thompson – 23
- Jake Lamb – 5
- Miguel Vargas – 4
- Kevin Pillar – 3
- James Outman – 2
- Zach McKinstry -1
- Eddy Alvarez – 1
When your regular 2B started the third most games in LF, that sort of indicates that LF was not a position of strength in 2022. It got more stable once Thompson and Gallo joined the team. But not enough to consider it stable.
Joey Gallo, Jake Lamb, Kevin Pillar, and Eddy Alvarez are FA and do not figure to be back with the Dodgers, although Pillar could be…maybe(?). McKinstry is with Chicago Cubs. Lux is not going back to LF.
Internal Choices – The internal choices appear to be CT3, Trayce Thompson, Miguel Vargas, and James Outman.
CT3
2022 – .221/.304/.373/.677 – K rate 35.2%, BB rate 9.7%, 10 HRs, 0.5 bWAR, 1.9 fWAR, 86 OPS+, LF DRS -4, LF OAA -1. Least amount of HRs in a full season in his career.
I do believe that the plan for CT3 is to go back to being the Swiss Army knife, super utility player. $15MM/year for 3 years is probably a stiff price for this type of player, until you need him to fill one of 6 spots on the diamond, putting up plus defensive numbers. But this is where he excels. He is going to strike out a lot, and he is going to get hot and carry the team. That is who CT3 is. You know what you get, the good and the bad, and his good has been more than enough in the past. I think last year was an anomaly and I think he deserves another shot in the role he best fits.
CT3 is generally a good playoff hitter. In 243 Playoff PA – .250/.354/.462/.815 –– 10 HRs and 25 RBIs. I think he was hurt in the 2022 NLDS. Did the Dodgers just think they could get by the Padres and wanted to get CT3 ABs and get him ready for NLCS? We will never know.
Trayce Thompson
2022 – .268/.364/.5374/.901 (as a LAD) – 13 HRs – K rate 36%, BB rate 12.6%, 13 HRs, 1.9 bWAR, 2.5 fWAR, 135 OPS+, LF DRS 0, LF OAA +1
What Trayce did when he first returned to LAD was tremendous. He cooled off considerably at the end. But his overall 2022 numbers prove he belongs. For me, Trayce Thompson is the ideal #4 OF, RH bat off the bench. I think too many judge the bench by what they do in the post season. In 2021, the Dodgers bench was horrible, but Atlanta’s was great. Who expected Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler to get hot in the NLCS and WS. I do not remember one person say that the Dodgers should trade for Rosario, Duvall, and Soler at the deadline. After the post season? Yeah, there were a lot.
It is hard to come off the bench, and Trayce does have a long swing. So he is going to need to play some to get comfortable, but he really is a bench player, and every team needs those. He is certainly capable of getting hot, and maybe that will be in the playoffs in 2023. If anyone knows of a better #4 OF, RH bat off the bench, say now, not after the 2023 WS.
How does a good defensive OF with 239 PA and a .901 OPS not be considered as part of the Dodgers roster for 2023.
James Outman – I think Outman is better suited to be the CF. If he is not the regular CF, I think he goes back to AAA to get regular ABs. With Outman in CF, Andy Pages in RF, and Jason Martin in LF, OKC could be stacked in the OF. They will not need to shop the waiver wires for 5 OF to start in OKC. Ryan Ward and Drew Avans will be a very good support for that group.
I will include Outman’s MiLB stats when I review CF options.
Miguel Vargas
MiLB Stats – .304/.404/.511/.915 – K rate 14.6%, BB rate 13.7%, 17 HRs, 4 Triples, 32 Doubles, 82 RBIs (53 XBH)
Vargas figures to be the favorite to be LF or 3B in the 2023 LAD lineup. He has played most of his professional career on the dirt, so a move to the grass could be somewhat troublesome for a player who is not gifted with a lot of defensive skills. You can hide a poor defensive player in LF. But most of those players were huge power hitters…Greg Luzinski, George Foster, Kyle Schwarber, Jose Canseco (okay he played mostly in RF but his defense was atrocious in RF and LF), and Nick Castellanos (okay he plays RF because Schwarber is already in LF).
Last season, Vargas was getting mentored in the OF by Mookie Betts. Vargas is a good athlete, but as we saw with Lux, being a good athlete does not mean that you can take a player who has played his entire life in dirt and move him to LF. Cody Bellinger played a lot of OF in MiLB. Mookie played 299 games in MiLB, and 46 of them were in the OF. The difference here is that both Belli and Mookie were and are exceptional defensive players wherever they play. Vargas is not.
I am not looking for Vargas to show off a Mookie or Belli arm in LF, but I do hope he takes better routes and angles to the ball than he showed in 2022. I am guessing that Miggy does not go back to Cuba in the offseason (but I do not know). I would hope that he would stick at Camelback or Dodger Stadium for extra training. He has a chance to be a difference maker with the bat as long as he can play adequate defense. Alec Bom and Nick Castellanos are arguably the two worst defensive players in MLB and both have made multiple outstanding defensive plays in the WS. Vargas is athletic enough to do the same.
Finally, obviously I have no way of knowing what the Dodgers plans are for Vargas. I would hope that they would sit down with him and have a heart to heart as to where he is most comfortable…3B or LF. Let him play where he is most comfortable and let his bat play. That is what Vargas does best.
Free Agents
Left Fielders
- Albert Almora (29)
Andrew Benintendi (28)
Michael Brantley (36)
Kole Calhoun (35) – $5.5MM club option
Aledmys Diaz (32)
Corey Dickerson (34)
Adam Duvall (34)
Ben Gamel (31)
Robbie Grossman (33)
Trey Mancini (31)
Andrew McCutchen (36)
Joc Pederson (31)
David Peralta (35)
Tommy Pham (35) – $12MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout
Chad Pinder (31)
A.J. Pollock (35) – $13MM player option with a $5MM buyout
Jurickson Profar (30) – $7.5MM player option with a $1MM buyout
A.J. Pollock has indicated that he is going to exercise the player option, so that is one less option. Of the above, I would think that AF would kick the tires on:
Andrew Benintendi would be my first choice. He is LHH, and can play all 3 OF positions, although he is best suited for LF. He is a former overall #1 ranked MiLB player by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.
For 2022, with KC and NYY, he batted .304/.373/.399/.772. K rate 14.8%, BB rate 10.0%, 5 HRs, 3.2 bWAR, 2.8 fWAR, 120 OPS+, LF DRS +2, LF OAA +0
Benny substituted power for bat to ball skills in 2022. He is LHH, and would be good as a platoon, but he is going to get a multi-year deal as an everyday player. So I do not see Benny as an option.
Michael Brantley – I am including him for STB. But IMO, his LF days are behind him. He is more of a DH now than a LF. He is also coming off shoulder surgery.
For 2022 – .288/.370/.416/.785 – In 277 PA – 30 K and 31 BB, 1.3 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR, 125 OPS+
Michael Brantley would be an exceptional platoon LF with Vargas, if the Dodgers were considering platooning Miguel. I do not think they will, but if they could get 250+ PA, he would be excellent. But I think he ends back in Houston where he is very happy.
Joc Pederson – I am including him for Bums.
For 2022 he batted, in 433 PA, .274/.353/.521/.874 – 23 HR and 70 RBIs. 100 K (23.1%), 1.3 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR, 144 OPS+
Joc is a platoon LF at this point in his career. His power potential would indicate that he needs 400+ PA to take advantage of his offense. I just do not think that the Dodgers are going to take away that many PA from Vargas.
Jurickson Profar? If he decides to opt out, he should be able to exceed his guarantee. He is a switch hitter, but if Vargas is the LF, Profar is not going to get enough ABs.
Potential Trade Candidates
There is only 1 LF with a .800+ OPS, and that was Kyle Schwarber. He is owed $60MM over the next 3 years. With a 2.2 fWAR in 2022 when he won the NL HR title at 46, he does not project to earn his salary over the next three years.
The only LF trade candidate that AF would consider IMO, would be Ian Happ. He will be 28 (baseball age) in 2023, and has 1 year control. He is a switch hitter. He can play 2B and CF I need be.
For 2022 – In 641 PA, .271/.342/.440/.781, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 149 K (23.2%) and 58 BB (9.1%). 4.3 bWAR, 3.5 fWAR, 119 OPS+.
Other LF trade candidates (not likely):
- Christian Yelich – Throw in with Corbin Burnes? LAD take on the salary. Milwaukee would be much better off without Yelich’s contract. What the heck, if people are looking for a return of the 2019 Cody Bellinger, why not the return of the 2018/2019 Yelich? Okay I am dreaming.
- Jesse Winker
- Alex Verdugo
- Austin Hays
- Lane Thomas
RF trade candidates to move to LF (also not likely):
Teoscar Hernández (Toronto) RH Bat – .267/.316/.491/.807, 25 HRs and 77 RBIs, 28.4% K rate, and 6.4% BB rate, 2.7 bWAR, 2.4 fWAR, 127 OPS+
Hernández has one year control. Projected 2023 arbitration salary is $14.1 MM. His 2022 production would earn that salary. He is a career OPS of .819.
Taylor Ward (LAA) RH Bat – .281/.360/.473/.833, 23 HRs and 65 RBI, 21.3% K Rate and 10.6% BB Rate, 3.8 bWAR, 3.8 fWAR, 135 OPS+.
Ward is a Super 2 arbitration player in his first year of arbitration. He is projected to earn $2.9MM in arbitration. The Angels have 4 years of control.
This is hugely unlikely, but Ward is one player that the Dodgers could lose Vargas in LF for. LAA is not trading Ward, so this does not need to be a consideration for any LAD fan, but I had to include him.
Hunter Renfroe (Milwaukee) RH Bat – .255/.315/.492/.807, 29 HRs and 72 RBIs, 23.2% K Rate and 7.5% BB Rate, 2.7 bWAR, 2.5 fWAR, 126 OPS+
Renfroe has one year of control remaining. He is in his final year of arbitration and is projected by MLBTR to be non-tendered. His projected arbitration salary is $11.2MM.
If Vargas goes to 3B, then I think that Andrew Benintendi makes perfect sense for the regular LF. I also think that a trade for Teoscar Hernández could work for one year until Andy Pages could be ready.
This is not something that is going to get harvested until JT’s situation is determined and Edwin Ríos’ situation is also resolved. If JT is not re-signed and Ríos is included in a trade package (a real possibility), then 3B will be Vargas’ to lose. If JT is re-signed and Ríos is not traded, then LF is Vargas’ to lose.
Prediction – LF to Miguel Vargas
So then the plan is to have Turner and Muncy split 3b and DH?
Will Vargas stay in lf, or is this just a temporary assignment until Pages is ready? I’m assuming the plan includes trading Rios, for pitching maybe?
I don’t like it but I suppose I could live with it. If that’s the Dodgers plan Vargas better not go home this winter. He needs to stay in Arizona and put in the hours learning how to play outfield.
If a 32-33 year old Muncy is going to play third base I’d like to see him lose about 15 pounds. Hard to move laterally with any quickness when your gut is hanging over your belt.
It is going to be fun this winter. Both you and STB expect to see Miguel Vargas in the starting lineup Day 1. You have him at 3B and STB sees him in LF. Some have him as a key part of a trade package for a Starting Pitcher. I honestly have no idea. I see merit for all three. But in my world, I do see Vargas on the LAD 26 man roster. I just hope they don’t continuously move him from LF to 3B. He needs one spot.
I would think that AF/BG/Doc have already had the conversation with Vargas as to where he feels most comfortable. If they have not, then they are not as smart as we all think they are, and I know that isn’t right. That does not mean he will get his choice, but it will at least be known and talked through.
I also believe that they have told Vargas what position to work on this winter.
I don’t think they trade him. Whether he starts the year on the 26 might depend on his Spring. If he tears it up, he has to be on it. If he doesn’t, well, who knows, but it’s a problem. .300/.400/.500 in AAA? He’s done there.
What about JT? If they bring him back it kinda sends a message to both Rios and Vargas. Adios Rios and learn how to play left field this winter Miggy.
I would think that Miggy is more comfortable at 3rd because he’s spent 90% of his career there, so I wouldn’t even ask him that question.
Put him in left, have him spend the winter taking lots of reps, and see what you have in ST.
Rumor has it Vargas is already shagging flies in Glendale.
I started that rumor right here. Feel free to pass it on.
plashke, who I think little of, got some good quotes out of Kasten, whose words merit hearing.
id temper down trade/FA expectations by 60-80% if you believe Stan.
I read Plaschke. I like his writing. He’s a cranky old dude, just like me. I don’t always agree with him, but I don’t always agree with myself either.
Stan wouldn’t say anything disingenuous, would he? Stan Kasten doubt? Nah.
Give me a choice between Badger and Plaschke and I’ll take Badger every time. Plaschke is just a grumpy old man. You’re a grumpy old man with a sense of humor.
I’m a Rams, Lakers and Dodgers fan. Gotta have a sense of humor.
Thanks for including Brantley for me, Jeff. He would definitely make more sense if JT doesn’t return, Max is the everyday third baseman and Vargas is in left. That would leave a bunch of DH time available for him and a little bit of left field as well.
My head is spinning right now with all the possibilities including, of course, the possibility that Andrew does very little and brings back most of last year’s team.
Just happy for a normal winter without Covid and without a lockout.
Happy Hot Stove everyone!
Always enjoy the Hot Stove…Let the games begin.
I’m with you, Fred. My favorite time of the year.
Sometimes I think I enjoy the Hot Stove more than the actual season, but maybe that’s because I never had the skills to even think about an MLB career. If I had had a career in MLB it would have been in a front office.
Scrabble variants Jefe. B,X,Q. Don’t go anywhere, mask up inside, wear a body condom and drink lots of alcohol.
I’m guessing that if I drink enough alcohol I won’t need to bother with the other stuff.
It’s a scientific fact that Scrabble and massive amounts of alcohol do not mix.
Other than sleep maybe, what does mix with massive amounts of alcohol?
Wearing a lampshade?
Interesting to see the Kasten comments indicating they may just sit tight and play the youngsters.
They’re very good at zigging just before they zag.
Kasten’s statement prepares the fans, just in case they actually do that, and it also lets the other 29 teams and all the free agents and player agents know they aren’t desperate.
I’d be shocked if they didn’t bring in one major player, and that could just mean bringing back Trea. If not Trea, we’ll see something else that will create a lot of conversation.
I seem to recall hearing a year or so ago that the Dodgers planned to do just that; play the youngsters. Guess will find out soon enough.
Andy Pages participating in Fall Stars GameThe Derby was the start of a busy stretch for Pages, who next is due to participate in the Fall Stars Game on Sunday.
I think I’d rather see him in left field.
Pages tied for 4th in the HR Derby with Arizona’s Deyvison De Los Santos
6th , 7th, and 8th were Jhailyn Ortiz – Philadelphia, Stephen Scott – Boston, and Edouard Julien – Twins.
My choices:
I don’t think T. Thompson is a long or short term solution. I would give Pages a chance before I would stick Thompson in left on a regular basis.
No thanks. The kid has played third for the majority of his career. He is not going to displace Freeman at first. Muncy plays second better than third, Turner’s days as a regular on the field are behind him. Lux may have to move to SS if a prime free agent SS is not signed, and I think AF is comfortable with that. AF is willing to keep Bellinger around for another year. The shift going away is going to benefit both Bellinger and Muncy, who for the most part are dead pull hitters. I think they go for pitching in free agency. I am not sold on Benintendi at all. Decent fielder, I do not think he has shown as much with the bat as most thought he would. I think the offense will be fine, they do need to beef up the bench.
Muncy is my DH that will play only occasionally in the field. Benintendi must have done something right. He was 3 oWAR player last year. Hit .300. He would work, if we muscle up somewhere else.
I’ve already started Vargas’ off season program of a hundred grounders a day. 75 off a right handed bat, 25 off left. And yes, though not a Master, I am a fungo switch hitter. By the way, these 100 are separate from bunt and slow roller practice. Morning is offense, 100 live cuts,,afternoon is defnse and conditioning. I’ll give him Thanksgiving off and 2 weeks to go home for the holidays. But that’s it. This is your shot kid. Nobody is going to outwork you this winter.
If the Dodgers lose Trea Turner and cannot replace his bat, and they cannot replace JT’s bat, and they have to rely on CT3, there is no way they should hold on to Bellinger unless he agrees to a $10MM deal after being non-tendered. Roto Baller did a study on the impact of wOBA with the shift going away. ML Average was .316. Bellinger had a wOBA of .284. Roto Baller projected an increase of .14 points. That would keep Belli well below the MLB Average. Of course that MLB Average of .316 would also increase when factoring all of the increases in wOBA with the loss of the shift.
Muncy was .318, just above ML Average and his expected increase is .15. Still not much more than ML Average.
Freddie also is expected to get a .14 point increase. But his 2022 wOBA was .391. That will put his wOBA at .405.
Definition of wOBA.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-on-base-average
Also, for what it is worth, Max was rated a better 3B than 2B by DRS and OAA.
3B – DRS +7, OAA -2
2B – DRS 0, OAA -2
Edwin Diaz just agreed to a $102MM 5 year deal with NYM. Unbelievable. $100MM+ for a relief pitcher. Diaz will be 29 next year and had a fWAR of 3.0 ($23.9MM value). He had a great year, but will that value hold for another 5 years?
$20 mil a year. I think Jansen made that much with us. But yeah, 5 years? Gulp. That owner can afford it. He’s what some people would call stupid rich.
I woke up to a power outage and went out for breakfast. I’ve read the 18 comments made prior to this post. With all the wisdom gained from reading here there is one clear answer to what is going to happen.
Lux is going to be shortstop and unfortunately Muncy will hold down second for a year. I fear Bellinger will be back in CF. Left field will be a platoon shared by Pederson and Thompson with Thompson getting starts in CF and RF.
RF Betts
SS Lux
1B Freeman
C Smith
LF Pederson and Thompson
DH Justin Turner
2B Muncy
3B Vargas or Gelof
CF Bellinger or Outman if Dodgers non-tender Bellinger.
Long term plan for LF will be Pages or Ramos.
Dodgers will trade for either Burns or Bieber.
I don’t understand. Burnes and Bieber are both team controlled aces. Why would they trade them and what are you giving up for them?
Lux at short huh? Pederson and Gelof. You got a Plan B?
Reynolds in exchange for Pages, Outman, and Jackson.
Bieber for Vargas, Busch, Ferguson, and Pepiot.
No Bellinger.
Friedman gets to decide who else he includes in those trades or if not to make them. 80 / 20 rule. I provided the 80 but the devil is in the 20.
The World Series is now over, and the pending free agents are now true free agents. The Dodgers 40 man roster sits at 37. That includes:
Trevor Bauer (restricted until he isn’t).
Danny Duffy (club option)
Hanser Alberto (club option)
Jimmy Nelson (club option)
Justin Turner (club option)
Cody Bellinger (possible non-tender)