FanGraphs is the final major publication to report on their top 100 prospects. Again the Dodgers were well represented with 6. FanGraphs does it a little different than others. Their list includes every player that has a FV of 50 or more as in their Top 100. This year there were 112 players that hit a FV of 50 or more.
As a reminder, 50 FV is an average everyday regular for position players, and a #4 starting pitcher.
- FV 50 – Position – Average Regular Everyday Starter – fWAR 1.6 to 2.5
- FV 50 – Pitcher – #4 starters. Approx. 4.00 FIP, at times worse but then with lots of innings – fWAR 1.8 to 2.5
Overall, FanGraphs rated 2 players with a FV of 65:
FanGraphs 12 players with a FV of 60:
In addition, FanGraphs has 24 prospects with a 55 FV and 74 prospects with a FV of 50.
- FV 60 – Position – All Star – fWAR 4 to 4.9
- FV 60 – Pitcher – #3 starters, 3.30 FIP, volume approaching 200 innings – fWAR 3.5 to 4.9
- FV 55 – Position – Above Average Regular – fWAR 2.5 to 3.3
- FV 55 – Pitcher – #3/4 starters. Approx 3.70 FIP along with about 160 IP – fWAR 2.6 to 3.4
The Dodgers have 2 prospects with a FV of 55 and 4 with a FV of 50. The position choices are per FanGraphs.
- Diego Cartaya (C) – #28 (last year #37), FV 55
- Bobby Miller (RHSP) – #33 (last year #94), FV 55
- Michael Busch (DH) – #46 (last year #79), FV 50
- Miguel Vargas (LF) – #48 (last year NR), FV 50
- Andy Pages (RF) – #58 (last year #86), FV 50
- Gavin Stone (RHSP) – #59 (last year NR), FV 50
Each of the 4 prospects that were on the 2022 Top 100 list moved up, while 2 more joined the group. The biggest mover was Miguel Vargas. For the past couple of years, FanGraphs has downgraded Vargas as a non-power hitting 1B as his only legit shot as a MLB regular. For 2023, FanGraphs has finally joined the party and believes that Miggy will be a ML regular. However they are still not sold on his defensive prowess, as he is listed as a LF…the place to hide your bat first players. Incidentally this is the position they have given Rayne Doncon, as they rate him a poor middle infielder.
Like most of the other publications, the Dodgers do not have any elite prospects, but do have a bevy of good prospects who project to be regular position players and middle rotation SP. To me, what that says is that in order for the Dodgers to get that elite player onto their roster, they are either going to have sign them as a FA or trade multiple potential everyday players for the elite player.
The Dodgers have a couple of elite players (Betts and Freeman) and one on his way to that status (Smith). They have one elite pitcher (Urías), with multiple in the second tier who can pitch at the elite level, but just not the innings needed to be considered elite. I do believe May is on his way to that status level.
Overall, I review 7 different top 100 lists. The 7 lists are:
- Baseball America
- MLB Pipeline
- The Athletic (Keith Law)
- ESPN (Kiley McDaniel)
- Baseball Prospectus
- Bleacher Report
The Dodgers had 4 consensus top 100 prospects: Cartaya, Miller, Vargas, and Stone. For whatever reason, Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) did not include Michael Busch. Although McDaniel did include Busch in the group of prospects with a FV of 50 not included in top 100. ESPN was the only list that did not include Busch.
Andy Pages was rated in the top 100 by 4 of the seven.
Dalton Rushing was placed on 3 lists and is sure looking at becoming a consensus top 100 as early as mid-year, but probably no later than the start of 2024.
Ryan Pepiot was also placed on 3 lists with Nick Nastrini (Baseball Prospectus), Nick Frasso (Baseball Prospectus) , and James Outman (Keith Law – The Athletic) on one each.
As a follow up, Baseball America previously published their individual teams’ top 10 prospect lists. The top 30 are published in their Prospect Handbook, which is a paid subscription. I do not have a problem with providing Prospects 11-30 for the Dodgers. BTW, I heartily recommend purchasing the Handbook. It is chock-full of great information on 900 prospects.
11 Jacob Amaya – SS
12 Nick Frasso – RHSP
13 Josue De Paula – OF (Corner)
14 Emmet Sheehan – RHSP
15 Eddys Leonard – SS/2B
16 Ronan Kopp – LHRP
17 River Ryan – RHSP
18 Jonny DeLuca – OF
19 Michael Grove – RHSP
20 Maddux Bruns – LHSP
21 Jorbit Vivas – 2B
22 Devin Mann – 2B/OF
23 Landon Knack – RHSP
24 José Ramos – OF
25 Yeiner Fernandez – C/2B
26 Peter Heubeck – RHSP
27 Damon Keith – OF
28 Kyle Hurt – RHSP
29 Carlos Duran – RHRP
30 Justin Wrobleski – LHSP
There are a couple of surprises.
- Devin Mann as a utility player made the Top 30 the only publication he was named. This is a strength of the Dodgers system…utility players. Even though he has a FV of 40 with BA, he does present a true opportunity to make a MLB roster at some point.
- Ronan Kopp, who is truly a relief option with this organization was ranked as high as #16. Kopp was named in three top prospect publications, and BA is the highest ranking of any publication. For me, he replaces Nick Robertson as the top relief option in the system.
- BA was the fifth publication naming Josue De Paula. He was ranked anywhere from #7 (FanGraphs) to #22 (Prospects Live).
- Justin Wrobleski was named to his second top LAD prospect list. He is my sleeper prospect for 2023. He is another in a long line of TJ reclamation projects, and is considered to be in the fast track similar to Caleb Ferguson a couple years back.
Finally, a couple of positive notes coming out of Camelback.
- Julio Urías and Noah Syndergaard were impressive in their live intra-squad scrimmage. Syndergaard’s velo is already north of his average velo last year. Another Tyler Anderson, except with big-time K potential?
“I thought today was really awesome,” Syndergaard said. “A lot of what I’ve been working on was starting to click, so it was a lot of fun being out there and playing baseball.”
“Today, my delivery was super consistent,” said Syndergaard. “There were a lot of strikes and a lot of competitive pitches.”
- The overwhelming front runner for the Dodgers 26th man and 5th OF is Jason Heyward. He has a revamped swing that has the team smiling. It doesn’t hurt that he has Freddie Freeman as his biggest advocate.
- James Outman looks more and more likely headed to OKC. If the Dodgers were not expected to contend, there would be no question that James would break camp as part of the 26 man roster. But regardless as to what Stan Kasten says, AF is always going to lean toward veterans. Thus the addition of LHH Jason Heyward and LHH David Peralta. Not to mention the other two LHH CF signed to MiLB contracts, Bradley Zimmer and Steven Duggar.
- Miguel Vargas has been getting schooled big time in his new permanent position of 2B. On a Miguel Rojas AB, with Vargas shaded more up the middle, Rojas stroked what looked to be a groundball single into RF. Instead, Vargas on his first playable ball of the Dodger intra-squad scrimmage — made a diving stop, rolled over and delivered a perfect strike to Devin Mann to get Rojas out and end the two-inning matchup.
- Ryan Pepiot is standing out with huge plaudits from the Dodger hitters. His fastball is trending up, and his renewed change has hitters whiffing. He has much more confidence coming into 2023, and even though he is not expected to break camp with the big league team as a member of the rotation, he should get a lot of opportunities to show his stuff this year. He still needs to work on his slider, but he is expected to challenge hitters more often. If he cannot get that slider to cooperate, his two pitch repertoire of fastball/change should be enough to become a late inning high leverage reliever.
Of course these are intra-squad scrimmages and mean nothing. But positive plays, pitches, and ABs still count in the eyes of the decision makers. And it is enough to get me excited for actual baseball games to begin.
Michael Grove will draw the start against Milwaukee on Saturday for ST Game #1. Matt Andriese and Bryan Hudson are also scheduled to pitch on Saturday.
#Dodgers Dave Roberts says Michael Grove will start Saturday's Cactus League #lidlifter against the Brewers. Matt Andriese and Bryan Hudson among others scheduled to pitch
— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) February 22, 2023
That was excellent Jeff thank you for all your hard work.
How do you define or composite that track record?
I would guess the same way individual organizations evaluate their own scouts.
nepotism and cronyism aside lol.
Good stuff, thanks.
As much as I want to see what Cartaya can do, I am also anxious to see Dalton Rushing.
Fangraphs has him and River Ryan joining the Top 100 in 2024.
Two other top Dodger prospects who could climb to Top 100 status are Nick Nastrini and Josue De Paula. Nick Frasso also has an outside chance.
River Ryan certainly shows dominating traits. He struck out 70 in 47.2 IP. But he is going to need to go further than 47.2 IP to show he is a legit rotation prospect. Otherwise his late high leverage relief risk is going to come to fruition. I would feel better if he was 20-21 in High A rather than 24.
Thanks Jeff. A really informative article. Let’s Play Ball.
The Dodgers need Outman to win the CF job in order to resolve that position for next 5 years.
Betts would be running constantly if he winds up in CF and he doesn’t have CF speed.
It’s nice to have Heyward as plan B in case Outman isn’t a 50/55 CFer.
It’s partly a question of where the Dodgers want to spend payroll over the next 5 years.
Outman is ready. Be a shame if he’s passed over.
As I said yesterday, I think Dodger fans are more enamored with Outman than are the Dodgers. Based on their offseason moves, I am not sure how one can be convinced that the Dodgers believe Outman is the long term solution in CF. Heyward, Zimmer, Duggar, and Peralta. All LHH OF, and the first three can play CF. It is not as if Outman is a 21 year old over achiever. This is his 26 year old season.
I have read on more than a few occasions that the concern with Outman is that he is more projectable as the player he was in his third and fourth game, rather than his 1st two games. He was 1 for 7 with 6 strikeouts in 8 PA in Games 3 and 4.
This is going to be a huge Spring Training for Outman. I too hope he makes it, but I have my doubts that the Dodger Brass believe he is anything more than a 4th/5th OF. Also, as I have always said, every team needs one. Why not James Outman?
Outman is out man. Heyward is making this team.
Doc says he’s considering a number of different lineup configurations, including moving Mookie down farther. Mookie says hitting leadoff is no longer a major thing for him so apparently he’s signed on to letting someone else lead off if Doc decides he wants to do that.
Assuming Peralta and JHey are the left and center fielders for opening day, I think this is what I would do:
I’d hit Miggy ninth so we have his speed attached to Lux and Mookie hitting first and second. That would allow Doc to do some running with that part of the order and running might be much more important this year.
What do the rest of you have in the way of lineup preferences?
Max gets on base so hit him 9th. Roberts won’t do that though.
I like Lux #2
I like the lineup, but I may want to move Freddie to #2 and Mookie to #3. I like the idea of a LHH behind Lux, and Mookie seemingly has more power and would slot in nicely into that RBI slot at #3, I can also see Smith and Max switching spots depending on the pitcher. I might move Smith up to #5 with a LHP and Max to #5 with a RHP.
Lux has batted leadoff for most of his MiLB career so it will not be new and should not be uncomfortable for him.
Vargas hitting 9th makes a lot of sense. Lux had a breakout season batting 9th, so why not Vargas. Vargas will move up in the order as he matures as a MLB hitter.
I would imagine that CT3 will hit against LHP and would replace Peralta, and Trayce Thompson could replace Heyward against LHP. In that scenario, I would think that Thompson would hit 7th and CT3 8th.
I am not a huge advocate for platooning, but the Dodgers are, and they are the ones making out the lineup.
I don’t see a better option than Betts to lead off. I prefer Lux down in the lineup where he’s had some success. So my lineup still has Betts, Freeman and Smith hitting in the first inning. If he proves to be 100% healthy I have Muncy in the 4 hole, followed by Martinez. Pick ‘em out of a hat 5-8 then Lux. From the third inning on its Lux, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Muncy, Martinez. Peralta, Vargas, whoever.
One thing we have learned over the last several years is that no matter which lineup plays on Monday, it will not be the same as Tuesday. That lineup no matter how formed is going to score runs. This team will get to October, and then the team if it stays healthy will show up for the playoffs.
Time of game for Padres-Mariners: 2 hours, 29 minutes.
Time of game for Rangers-Royals: 2 hours, 33 minutes.
This is spring training and a minuscule sample. But it’s hard to understate how drastically the pitch clock is going to change baseball.
But was the time between half innings compressed?
I dare you to ask Al Yellon this.
Manny Machado had the first pitch clock violation of the spring.