The money going out the door this year is insane.
Jacob deGrom – 5 years $186MM – When was the last time he had a full season of starts? After $500MM committed to two SS last winter, Chris Young may be in over his head. But the owners, Ray Davis and Bob Simpson, are giving him their blessing. Texas needs to put behinds in the seats of that new stadium. Texas has the 2024 All Star game, so they want a contending team. All is good with the Rangers.
Justin Verlander – 2 years $86.67MM, with a $37MM vesting option if JV throws 140 innings in 2024.
Trea Turner – 11 years $300MM, but turned down what has been reported as more than $342MM from San Diego. I like Trea Turner, but not that much.
Edwin Díaz – 5 years $102MM for a relief pitcher. I don’t care how good he is.
Taijuan Walker – 4 years $72MM. $18MM AAV. His best year was last year, and he earned a 2.5 fWAR. That supported $20.1MM. What are the chances he repeats that 4 more years? He went from 2/$20MM to 4/$72. I will stick with Ryan Pepiot at ML minimum.
José Abreu – 3 years $58.5MM.
Tommy Kahnle – 2 years $11.5MM – 13.2 IP in the last 3 years (in total).
Rafael Montero – 3 years $34.5MM – Career ERA 4.64, career WHIP 1.458.
Chris Martin – 2 years $17.5MM – I like CMart but 2 years at $8.75MM per year seems a little steep for a 7th inning reliever. Even one that does not walk anyone.
Matt Strahm – 2 years $15.0MM – After 44.2 IP and a 3.83 ERA he deserves 150% raise for two years? Momma, let your sons grow up to be LH pitchers.
Aaron Judge – $362MM offer from San Francisco. It could go even higher. NYY is not done negotiating.
The insane contracts for deGrom and Verlander are only going to drive the costs up for the next level. Carlos Rodón, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Sean Manaea, Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi, Ross Stripling, and Michael Wacha are doing back flips with how the market has gone north. We saw what it did for Taijuan Walker.
Andrew Heaney signed for two years and $25MM guaranteed, with incentives that could take it to $37MM. This is a pitcher who gives up more HRs than almost any MLB starting pitcher. His HR % was 4.5, with an MLB Average around 3.0. He is in the bottom 2 percentile in average exit velocity, bottom 1 percentile in hard hit %, and bottom 4 percentile in barrels. He is basically a 2 pitch pitcher: fastball and slider. He will throw the changeup, but very infrequently (5%). He was released by NYY, signed for 1 year and threw 72.2 innings for LAD. He has thrown more than 130 innings just once in his career (2018). His next highest IP was 129.2 in 2021. He has a career ERA of 4.56 and a career WHIP of 1.245. Heaney reportedly turned down more lucrative guarantees, including one north of $30MM from Boston, because of his relationship with Chris Young.
Reasonable contracts include:
Cleveland and Josh Bell for 2 years and $33MM with an opt out after 2023.
Giants and Mitch Haniger 3 years $43MM.
LAA and Tyler Anderson for 3 years $39MM which was a relative steal compared to Tampa Bay’s Zach Eflin 3 year $40MM FA signing.
LAD and Clayton Kershaw for 1 year at $20MM
Koudai Senga is reported to be asking for $20MM AAV. This is what happens when Taijuan Walker gets $18MM AAV. He was originally reported to looking for $15MM AAV. NYM seem to be the favorite as I write this. Always subject to change. The Dodgers and Red Sox always seem to come up at least second best in the FA negotiations.
I make no value judgement as to the fairness of the contracts. Simply an observation.
Besides the Trea Turner contract, it is expected that there will be two more $300MM contracts: Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. I don’t expect the Dodgers to be signing either of those players.
How often do we need to hear that the team is going the youth route this year before we believe them?
The first ever MLB lottery was held on Tuesday, and the Pirates were the lottery winner. As a result they moved up 2 spots from #3 to #1. The Minnesota Twins were the biggest mover. They moved up 8 spots from what would have been spot #13 to spot #5. The Tigers and Rangers moved up 3 spots. The A’s and the Reds were the big losers as they dropped 4 spots from what would have been #2 to #6. KC dropped 3 spots and Colorado dropped 2.
The Dodgers select #26. The last twelve spots are dictated by how they fared in the playoffs. The Dodgers dropped from what would have been #30 to #26 because they lost the NLDS.
The Rule 5 draft will be held on Wednesday. How many Dodgers will be drafted? I still think the most vulnerable will be (in no particular order):
- Ryan Noda
- Carlos Duran
- José Ramos
- Justin Yurchak
- Devin Mann – doubtful but who knows if some team could be looking for a utility player.
The Dodgers have 3 spots on their 40 man. Will they take a chance on anyone else’s Rule 5 eligible player?
Finally, I came across the item below. It is sad to think about it.
I seriously can’t believe they’re both gone. Seager and Bellinger were the best Dodgers prospect combo I can ever remember. pic.twitter.com/40yqe7xbxT
— Klein25 (@Klein25) December 7, 2022
— ʎ u u ɐ p 🚲⚾️ (@gatodejazz) December 6, 2022
Yeah, sad to our stars leaving. Just another sign of the times.
A topic to discuss maybe is something Bluto and I exchanged opinions on and is mentioned in the LA Times this morning. “The biggest challenge for MLB – and every US sports league – is the collapse of cable and satellite TV. Those mega-contracts have been funded by deals with regional sports networks (RSN) which pays enormously providing some teams the money to spend lavishly on players.” The downside of course is what I was mentioning – the level of revenue disparity makes it impossible for some markets to compete. It’s never been more evident than it is today.
Another interesting article this morning was written by Dylan Hernandez suggesting something talked about here, and on other blogs, which is the need for a vocal leader on this club. Honestly I didn’t feel it necessary but apparently getting paid hundreds of thousands every week, some players every night, is not enough motivation. These spoiled brats need f’n cheerleaders and internal motivational speakers. I find that interesting as most motivational speakers I’m familiar with are there to encourage ways to make more money. That’s not what is needed here. What’s needed here apparently is motivation to accomplish what they are getting paid millions to do. Weird. The good news is Roberts thinks maybe he should take on the role. Yeah, the manager motivating. Good plan Dave. One could ask, where have you been dude?… but I’ll leave that for others.
Just saw Judge back to the Yankees. Good. Now the giants can sign Correa and Rodón and we can… what is it we’re going to do?
I think Correa is a great fit for the Giants. He would be their motivator and team leader. I prefer Swanson for the Dodgers.
Drury would be insurance for Vargas and LF if a prospect winds up in left.
Verlander and deGram contracts have driven up the trade value of quite a few pitching trade targets.
I bet we sign Longoria.
Kiermaier and Longoria coming back into Friedman family? 😀
I do not beleive AF would sign Longoria over Justin Turner. If LAD needs an aging 3B it is going to be JT.
Kenley goes to the Red Sox. 2 years, 32 mil. Nice work KJ!
Mets sign Quintana.
We are no longer King of the Hill. Will have to fight SD and SF $ for every player.
I just spent some time looking closer at Brandon Nimmo’s B-Ref page. His 2022 season was a lot better than I thought numbers-wise. 102 runs and 673 PAs stand out.
He’s 29, from Wyoming, andp was a 1st round pick by the Mets. He’s bigger than I thought [6’3 206 lbs.] and MLBTR predicted he’d sign for 5y/$110m.
If we can get him for around $20m per year [maybe extend it to 6 or 7 years] he might be a good addition. For any weaknesses he has, we know he would:
Solve the CF problemGet a ton of ABs, likely at the top of the lineupPlay good defense and be a solid baserunnerI admit I’m willing to roll the dice with Outman but truthfully he’s always profiled as a 4th OF rather than a first-division starter.
I’d be okay with it . . .
I think every talent evaluator publication has James Outman as a 4th OF. That is not a negative. Every team needs one. But AF and Roberts are not talking about getting a CF if they were comfortable with putting Outman or Thompson in CF. They are not shy about Lux being their SS when there is clearly a need there.
I think they rolled the dice and thought that they could re-sign Belli for less than what arbitration might have been. But Scott Boras is his agent, and he was not going back to the team that basically released him.
Nimmo? CF is obviously a position of need with no true CF in the pipeline. While Kiermaier could help in 2023, he is not the long term solution. There is no true CF that appears to be available via trade. Too many teams are looking for one. The Dodgers would have to fight not only NYM but also SFG. The Giants have a real need in CF as well and they have the $$$ to outbid LAD and NYM.
Sorry about the formatting. It looks different when I hit Post Comment
Yeah, Boston was not going to be outspent again. A big overpay IMO for KJ. But yes, good for KJ. Boston and Chaim Bloom are just a mess.
Of course all Bloom has to do is to re-sign Bogaerts and extend Devers and all will be right in Boston. Or reasonably so. They would still need starting pitching. Their bullpen should be okay with CMart, Joely Rodriguez, and KJ. They can live with Casas at 1B.
SD offered significantly more for Turner and just as significantly more for Judge. They offered $342MM for Turner (years unknown) and $400MM over 10 years for Judge. Same AAV but for one more guaranteed year. I am guessing that the Giants offer was not for 9 years as was NYY or NYY simply matched SFG and Judge chose NYY. $40MM a year for 9 years.
If Judge had accepted San Diego’s offer, that would have put their AAV payroll at $270MM. San Diego is playing in the big boy’s playground, and it looks like they are serious.
Judge is 6’7” and 282 pounds. A body that large does not often age well when playing games 6 days out of 7. Judge has had problems in the past staying on the field. It is only going to get worse. I guess this makes Harrison Bader more important to NYY. Judge can now stay in RF. A little less wear and tear on his legs.
NYY’s AAV payroll sits at $265MM, and they still have work to do. They have the same team except without Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter. They have replaced Miguel Castro with Tommy Kahnle and Benintendi with Oswaldo Cabrera. Carpenter was great for NYY down the stretch, but he is not needed.
We are witnessing what SP is going for, and NYY basically has no depth at all in their SP. Jordan Montgomery is gone. Once highly touted Deivi Garcia seems to be fizzling out. Clayton Beeter is their 2nd highest rated SP. What happens if Montas, Severino, or Germán go down again this year.
I guess Gleyber Torres is now available for pitching. They probably waited too long to trade Torres who has 1 year of control remaining. Brian Cashman is going to be calling Kim Ng for some of that SP Miami has stashed.
I wish Judge would’ve gone to SF. Would’ve made the league more interesting. Guessing now that Bogaerts returns to BOS, SF [or SD] lands Correa, and Dansby either signs with STL or us. Atlanta will probably just find a rookie to put at SS and have him be a world-beater.
Atlanta already has their SS, which is why they are playing hardball with Swanson. Vaughn Grissom will be the Braves starting SS in 2023. He did well as a fill-in for Albies last year.
A good comparison to Judge would be Frank Howard, 6’7″ 252 pounds, but was probably a little heavier than that. Frank’s last productive season was at age 34. That was the last time he played more than 150 games. And it was a real step down from his age 33 season. He would retire two years later. His knees were a problem by then. Dodgers big move yesterday? Making Aaron Bates a co-hitting coach with Von Shylock.
Would people here rather have Dansby or Nimmo?
What about Devers or Soto?
If Boston is even willing to trade Devers and that is not likely. They are meeting with Bogaerts as we speak. Soto is not a free agent for two more years.
Dansby, but only because I absolutely don’t want to see Lux moved off second. We can then use some prospect capital, gulp a few times, take a deep breath, and trade for Reynolds.
I don’t care for those trade simulator websites. But for three years of arbitration-eligibility [which will be below market value but not cheap] for a good, not great, switch-hitting CF with speed and power . . .
I think we’d have to part with a top pitching pitching prospect, a top hitting prospect, and a third piece, maybe major league ready.
So much easier to just sign a guy.
St. Louis and Willson Contreras agree on a 5 year $87.5MM deal. That will take Contreras through his age 35 season. What would it cost to extend Will Smith 5 years? Now is the perfect time. Their payroll is down. It will take him out of his 3 arbitration years and 2 FA years. 5 years will take him through his age 32 season. Maybe 4 years which would be 1 year before Freddie’s deal is up. 4 years $50MM with a vesting option for a 5th year. That would put Smith #5 on the catcher’s payroll list just above James McCann. Smith deserves to be above McCann.
Oakland joins in. Aledyms Díaz 2 years $14.5MM. He will do well in Oakland.
Philly signs Trea Turner for $300MM and San Diego offers $342MM. Meanwhile Oakland signs Díaz for $14.5MM. I believe this is what Badger is talking about.
It’s the starting pitching market that looks so out-of-whack to me. I think the only potential value to be found is from the Japanese league and also the AAAA junk pile.
Yeah, what Badger was talking about is last year the Oakland payroll was about $200 million less than ours. Under the current plan, you’ll never see those lower tier teams competing for big names.
Hopefully Boston ownership will let Chaim Bloom spend some of those Red Sox $$$ and re-sign Xander Bogaerts (of course I am also a Boston and Philly fan). Both sides are in “heavy” discussions right now and are reporting “momentum”. Will Bloom be able to bring it home? They have no real SP. Will they re-sign Michael Wacha and Nathan Eovaldi? Will Chris Sale actually be able to pitch this year? They need a RF. They are losing JDM and replacing him with Eric Hosmer.
Boston is $75.7 million south of the CBT threshold. Bogaerts, Wacha, and Eovaldi can easily fit in that window. OF – Wil Myers or even Joey Gallo could fit on one year “show me what you got” contracts. Gallo would love that short RF and the 302 foot Johnny Pesky foul pole. Would he make enough contact? It sure would be fun to watch him. They could bring back Christian Vazquez.
Boston can make it work this year and worry about Devers next winter. Uber prospect Marcelo Mayer should be ready in two years. Bogie can move to 3B and Mayer can be SS. If they sign Bogie, Devers becomes far more expendable.
How about the Dodgers and Red Sox make another of those crazy trades. Devers and Chris Sale for Michael Busch (to play LF), Ryan Pepiot, Max Muncy, lottery ticket (Maddux Bruns). Instead of cash coming back to LAD as it did with Price, LAD sends Muncy who is $12MM less than Sale, and would play 3B. They could exercise Muncy’s option next year at $14MM. Then in 2025, Bogie moves to 3B and Mayer takes over at SS. Dodgers can easily absorb Sale’s contract for two years. They wanted a pitcher on a short term deal anyway.
Can you imagine Boston fans’ reaction on the day of your proposed trade (before they find out that Busch and Pepiot are actually pretty good)
First they trade Mookie to the Dodgers and follow it up a couple years later by trading Devers to us?
They’d burn down Fenway.
Boston needs a first baseman. That could be Muncy. I’m a fan of letting the chips fall where they will so I don’t worry about Boston fans crying about Devers.
One trade at a time. Muncy for Sale.
Separate trade for Devers. Taylor and Busch plus Grove.
Assuming Vargas is the Dodgers 3rd baseman then Devers either becomes the DH or is traded.
Wait–we trade for Devers then trade him?
Mets picked up a good LHRP in Brooks Raley from Tampa Bay for a 23 year old LHSP who has ascended to A+ in the NYM system. He is not one of NYM’s top 30 prospects, but some how Tampa Bay seems to almost always make these transactions work.
NYM quickly approaching $300MM and still needs more.
Kenny Rosenthal’s latest article in The Athletic makes a point of the fact that the unresolved Bauer situation is causing the Dodgers to hesitate on making big money deals.
If the entire suspension is upheld they won’t owe anything, but if the arbitrator cuts back some or all of the suspension they could owe as much as 100 million in salary and penalty taxes.
I’m going to say once again that I can’t believe the Dodgers aren’t making a bigger stink over this. There should come a point in instances like this where the penalty is done away with so at least they can partially plan their moves. There should also be a limit as to how long a case like this can continue without resolution. Totally outrageous!
Ya think there isn’t plenty of talk between Manfred and Friedman that has been kept from becoming public?
While I do whole heartedly agree with you on this Jefe, I’m left with the words my Uncle Bob told me decades ago – you lie down with dogs you get up with fleas. MLB is made of owners and a commissioner owned by owners. None of them are likely to do the LA owners any favors.
It might to time to accept our fate with a smile, reset, and attempt to beat the feathers off our rivals with rookies and rebuilt veterans. We should be able to compete with a $232 million payroll. We couldn’t even get to the NLCS with a $300 million payroll so people couldn’t possibly expect any more than that with a reset roster.
I have no problem with LAD assuming the Bauer payroll as long as he is eligible to pitch. But if his suspension is lifted for 2023, the LAD payroll increases by $34MM, and their AAV payroll escalates to $221MM. There is not much the team can do to add to the roster and stay under the CBT threshold with $12MM.
I understand if the arbitration panel reduces the suspension to just 2022, that the Dodgers would owe Bauer for 2023. But if the panel eliminates the suspension in total, Bill Shaikin of the LA Times says that the Dodgers would have to pay Bauer for 2022 plus the tax, and 2023.
That could lead to $100MM (salary and tax) out the door for the Dodgers.
I am not an attorney, but that makes no sense to me. It was the MLB Commissioner ALONE who suspended Bauer, not the Dodgers. Manfred was the sole decision maker as the CBA calls for. He could have turned over the punishment to the Dodgers, but chose to suspend him unilaterally. Because of his unilateral decision, Bauer was precluded from pitching until an arbitration decision was made. Not the Dodgers. Why should the Dodgers have to assume that payroll? He was not held out due to injury or to a decision that the team made by releasing him. It was ROB MANFRED who decided that Bauer will not pitch in 2022 (and potentially 2023). And the Dodgers have to pay because an arbitration panel took a full season+++ to make a decision? And why is it taking this long. Either there is evidence of domestic violence or there isn’t. It should not be this hard to make a decision unless it is arbitrarily being delayed.
I am not convinced that Manfred did not have his finger on the delay button for all of 2022. It is very likely that the arbitration decision could be withheld until next month. I do believe the Dodgers are hesitating from signing FA until the decision comes down, and their payroll becomes known. That is a contingent liability of $100MM. That is steep even for the Dodgers.
Of course you’re right Jeff. But not a lot is being said or written about this. The owners own the commissioner, so if they wanted to give the Dodgers a break on CBT they could easily do it. Will they? I doubt it. For the team to be on the hook for $60 million for a suspended player is outrageous, but it sure looks like that’s the case. And for that $60 million to count against the cap is, in my ooinion, unconscionable. Question: if the commissioner and MLB stick to their guns about this, is there a morality clause in players contracts that can void payment to said player?
I’m sure with you on letting him pitch. Many fans aren’t going to go along with that but from a business perspective it just makes sense. If he pitches he could certainly earn some of that money.
Oakland picks Ryan Noda as the #2 overall Rule 5 draft. Right after, Pittsburgh selected LHP Jose Hernandez as the #3 overall.
Milwaukee selects Gus Varland (18th overall).
Dodgers pass in 1st round.
Dodgers lost 3…Ryan Noda, Jose Hernandez, and Gus Varland. Noda was blocked, and neither Hernandez or Varland are going to be much of a loss.
We got away with minimal damage. I was expecting a lot worse.
Now maybe we’ll find a gem in the minor league portion coming up.
Dodgers and Boston both lost 3.
Cleveland and NYY both lost 2.
Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Cubs, and Texas each lost 1.
A total of 15 in the ML phase.
Jose Hernandez is the only one that strikes me as significant. He could have the stuff to an above-average LH reliever as soon as this year. But nothing to get upset over.
I can see Hernandez sticking with Pittsburgh all season.
I think Noda will stick in Oakland. But he was blocked in LAD by a guy named Freddie Freeman. Seth Brown was the starter last year for Oakland at 1B. Brown showed good power at the MLB level.
Gus Varland will be offered back. I cannot see him sticking on the 26 man roster all season.
The Dodgers lost 2 players in the MiLB phase of the Rule 5 draft, and picked up 3.
Toronto – (C) Kekai Rios from AA roster
St. Louis – RHP José Martinez AA roster
Yon Castro – RHP from NYY A roster.
Carlo Reyes RHP from Philadelphia High A roster.
Josh Stowers OF Texas AA Roster
Reyes was mostly relief with some starts last year. 11.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9K, 2.84 ERA in 44.1 IP at High-A; 6.2 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 6.17 ERA in 11.2 IP at Double-A.
Red Sox sign Masataka Yoshida for 5 years $85MM+. That did not take long for him to sign. Same deal as the Cubs with Seiya Suzuki.
Updated to $90MM +$15.4MM posting fee.
In this economy?
Bogaerts just signed with the Padres for 11 years.
Xander Bogaerts signs with San Diego. 11 years – $280MM.
We don’t have to worry about Bauer’s potential salary hit hurting our chances of signing free agents. AJ Preller is going to sign every damn one of them.
Got to give Seidler credit. He certainly isn’t a major market team but is sure playing things like one. Fans in Pittsburgh, KC, etc. should be the ones who are really bothered by this. I haven’t seen Peter Seidler’s financial statement lately but I very much doubt that he’s one of the wealthier MLB owners.
So the Pads have lost Myers and Profar and will replace them with Tatis and Bogaerts. SD fans must be going out of their freakin’ minds.
I sure hope AJ doesn’t steal Kiermaier out from under us. 😂