Connect with us

Dodger Baseball

The Dodgers Without Trea

Oh shoot, the Dodgers lost another chance for a reclamation project when Rick Porcello retired.

I know many of us have looked at pitching.  Maybe that is because of the Justin Verlander rumors, but as I have been saying for some time, the Dodgers are flush with depth pitching and do not seem inclined to pay the going rate for an Ace.  So they will need for Gonsolin, May, Miller, Stone, and Pepiot to become plus SP for 2023 and beyond.  With Urias being a client of Scott Boras, it is doubtful that he would entertain an extension, and the Dodgers are probably not going to pay what the Urias going rate will be for 2024. If Carlos  Rodón is asking 6 years $180MM, what will Julio be asking.  Both are represented by Scott Boras.    They will have Buehler for one year before he hits FA, but what are the chances he returns to his Ace status after two TJ surgeries.  For three recent double TJ surgery survivors, Mike Clevinger certainly has not, and while Nathan Eovaldi may be considered an Ace for Boston, he is not an Ace for a contender.  Jameson Taillon had his 2nd TJ surgery August 2019, and was out the rest of 2019 and all of 2020.  He pitched 144.1 innings in 2021 with NYY to a 4.30 ERA.  He improved in 2022 to become a mid-tiered SP in FA.

Nevertheless, LAD has enough future starting pitching depth that they can backfill the rotation rather than look for up front starting rotation talent.

Trea Turner and his 6.3 fWAR has landed in Philadelphia.  No longer will we be seeing this in a LAD uniform.

Now what?

So while I do not believe it will happen, I agree with Badger and others that the Dodgers DO need to find a long-term SS solution.  If not this year, then when?  Gavin Lux can be a terrific All Star 2B for the long-term, but I do not think he is the answer for SS. Forget what AF says.  What is he supposed to say?  “We cannot win with Lux at SS”.   If not Lux, then who?  Even if they go out and get a stopgap SS, who do the Dodgers have in the pipeline?

  • Jacob Amaya
  • Eddys Leonard
  • Wilman Diaz

Jacob Amaya is not ready, and most evaluators do not think he will be a regular everyday SS, because of his 45 hitting skill and 40 power skill.  He could become a good defensive utility infielder.  Will he ever hit enough to be a regular?

Eddys Leonard primarily played SS last year, but in 2021 he started games at 2B (25), 3B (23) and CF (11), besides SS (35).  He has a plus arm, and has enough speed to be a average SS.  But he could be a plus defensive 2B.

Wilman Diaz has had a rough start to his career, and his prospect status has been dropping like a rock.  Okay maybe rough start is way too kind.  Horrendous start?  But he is only 19, much too young to give up on. But if everything turns around for him, it will be at least three years before he is remotely ready. The Dodgers cannot wait that long.

Jorbit Vivas is limited to 2B.

That’s it.  No other projectable SS in the pipeline.  How did this happen?

So do the Dodgers find a stopgap SS or stopgap 2B (with Lux at SS) until Leonard is ready for his shot?  Or do the Dodgers go out and sign one of the remaining elite 3.

If the Dodgers gamble and wait this year, will they be able to later find an elite SS?  While there is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect, the Dodgers’ prospects have a ways to go to even be considered a legit everyday SS.  Possible?  Sure.  Probable?  I have my doubts.

Let’s take a look at the Dodgers position players on the 40 man.  The Dodgers currently have a total of 37 players on the 40 man.  Position players include:

  • Catchers – 3
  • Infielders – 8
  • Outfielders – 6

Thus, they have 17 position players.  At least 4 of them have no chance of making the team out of Spring Training…Diego Cartaya, Jonny DeLuca, Eddys Leonard, and Jorbit Vivas.

That would leave a current 13 man position player roster of:

  • C – Will Smith – (R)
  • 1B – Freddie Freeman – (L)
  • 2B – Chris Taylor – (R)
  • 3B – Miguel Vargas – (R)
  • SS – Gavin Lux – (L)
  • LF – James Outman – (L)
  • CF – Trayce Thompson – (R)
  • RF – Mookie Betts – (R)
  • DH – Max Muncy – (L)

Bench

  • C – Austin Barnes – (R)
  • SS – Jacob Amaya – (R)
  • 2B/LF/DH/PH – Michael Busch – (L) – Edwin Rios replacement
  • OF – Andy Pages – (R)

The depth would have to come from the AAAA players signed to MiLB contracts.  This cannot possibly be how the Dodgers break camp, can it?

They can interchange Vargas and Muncy, Vargas and Outman, Muncy and CT3.  They can switch CT3 and Lux.  CT3 says he is more comfortable at SS.  This is how the Dodgers like to operate…a plethora of lineup changes. But is this a World Series Championship team?

The Dodgers currently have $46MM before they reach the CBT threshold. The Dodgers can afford to splurge on a SS.  But will they?  An elite SS could make everything else workable.  The Astros gambled and struck gold with Jeremy Peña.  The Braves may try the same with 22 year old Vaughn Grissom.  With the Trea Turner signing, Dansby Swanson’s asking price just increased and could be out of Atlanta’s comfort zone.  They were looking at $100MM, and we all know that is not going to be near enough to keep Swanson.  With a current $221MM AAV payroll, letting him go may be the plan.

Or can LAD stretch $46MM out for multiple holes.  A mid tiered middle infielder, a mid tiered OF, a mid to late rotation SP, and another middle reliever.  The problem with mid tiered players is that if you rely on too many average players, you could end up with an average team.  With their pitching, it could be good enough to contend for the NL West or at least a Wild Card, and then hope to get hot at the right time.  I think that is how many out there believes it works.  Dave Roberts has difficulty getting an elite team across the finish line, how do you think he would do with the above roster?

They can garner those players this via FA or via trade. The problem with a trade, is that they do not have a lot of MLB ready players they can afford to lose that teams will want.  Plus, they could lose 2-4 Rule 5 draftees.  That loss, with any trade, could hurt their MiLB system.

  • Ryan Noda – Some have said he is already better than 10 MLB 1B.
  • Carlos Duran – I can see several teams that might take Duran. He can remain on the IL for the full season.
  • José Ramos – It will really take a non-competitive team to keep him on their 26 man for the full season.
  • Justin Yurchak – Less likely, but some are predicting he will be selected.

It looks like JT could be a possible late signing, but with the Dodgers?

Other news out of the Winter Meetings is that the All MLB Teams were named:

First Team

 

Second Team 

 

The Dodgers’ total of five 1st and 2nd team players were the most in the NL, and only trailed Houston’s six.

Baseball’s inaugural draft lottery will be held Tuesday, with reverse order of the standings no longer determining who picks first through sixth. MLB Network will air the lottery at 5:30 p.m. (PDT).

The Nationals, Athletics and Pirates have the best odds of claiming the first selection, at 16.5 percent.

Just in case Carlos Correa finds an offer from AF/BG too good to turn down, I found this article, FWIW.

https://www.click2houston.com/sports/2020/02/16/carlos-correa-opens-up-about-sign-stealing-scandal/

 

 

63 Comments
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
63 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Oldbear48

Saw that report on MLBTR. Miami is interested in Justin Turner. Third is open and he could step in right away and his clubhouse leadership would play well in Miami. I am pretty sure the 36 guys on the 40 man are not going to be the same ones who are on the 40 man out of spring training. I am sure also AF is checking all the boxes and we will only know after it happens. Morons on Twitter are going nutzo over Turner leaving and the lack of action besides the Kershaw signing on the part of the Dodgers. I even saw fans there who called Kersh a fossil! One guy said wasting 20 mil on an old man was stupid. Old man? Kersh is 35. Both Scherzer and Verlander are older than he is and both are 40 million dollar a year arms. Some of those idiots have no clue, and some are completely oblivious to how hard it is to win or even get to the World Series.

Badger

Watching Trea was fun while it lasted. It will be interesting to see how he ages.

Morons on Twitter. Yep.

Hard to know at this point whether the Dodgers are being smart or missing the boat. They haven’t done much yet. That lineup listed here is not 111 wins but it isn’t a bad lineup. Maybe Lux finally breaks out and becomes a team leader from the shortstop position. Maybe Vargas becomes a version of Yordan. Maybe Amaya is Peña, Cartaya is Molina and maybe May, Grove, Pepiot, Stone and Miller will all become 4 WAR pitchers. Or, maybe we go ahead and pay the tax on $300 million payroll. We are the Los Angeles Dodgers. We have more money than god. Not the capital g God, but you know, a lesser god. And not a lesser god like the Musk god either, more like Goddenheim. Never mind. Feel like I’m digging myself another hole here.

Off season ain’t over yet. And I have an accupunctuation appointment this morning. Maybe I’ll feel more better after that.

Dionysus

Doncon might be our best SS prospect.

Oldbear48

If memory serves me right, they drafted a bunch of SS this last draft. MLBTR reporting that the Dodgers are interested in Andrew McCutcheon. Also that the Red Sox are making a push to sign Kahnle.

Jacob Burch

McCutcheon makes a lot of sense. I expect it to come together pretty quickly.

Jacob Burch

Your point stands though about SS being a position we could use a long-term option. If we choose to go with Lux and he can’t handle it, we basically have Chris Taylor and a whole lot of nothing behind him. If we had a more settled 3B situation I could see us rolling the dice with Lux, but I fully expect us to add someone like Dansby or Bogaerts.

Jacob Burch

Also, with CF unsettled, up-the-middle certainty is in short supply currently.

Bumsrap

I like Swanson a lot with the exception of him being rooted in Georgia and we would be yanking him out of there by the roots. Will those roots grow deep in LA soil?

I like Correa as well. He wants a big contract but doesn’t promise to be able to play 154 innings.

I am one of the few that won’t be disappointed if Lux is the Dodger shortstop. Justs don’t put Muncy at second.

I also like Betts at second base. That would open spots for Outman, Thompson, and a free agent like Haniger. If Vargas plays third then Taylor is the insurance at SS, 2nd base, and outfield. Muncy would be the backup for 3rd and DH. Although I think Busch could be the DH as well and less cost.

I am also okay with starting the season with Urias, Gonsolin, Kershaw, May, and Pepiot/Grove/Jackson/Miller/Stone for the rotation. Since Gonsolin, Kershaw, and May maybe being 130 to 150 inning pitchers in 2023, the Dodgers could go with a 6 man rotation.

The Dodgers need to reset their CBT in 2023 and have a chance of signing Ohtani in 2024.

I would rather have Swanson or Correa more than Haniger but again, either way, I won’t complain prior to the midpoint of 2023 if things don’t work out. Hopefully Taylor and Muncy were disappointments last year because of injuries and are now healthy.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bumsrap
Bluto

Despite it reeking of short-termist, which I despise.
I kinda like how “all-in” the Padres are.
I wonder if sports are one of the few areas that Short-Termism has more upside.

Rosenthal:

White Sox might move Hendriks but said to not want to trade Anderson.
Unlikely the Dodgers start with “say, Lux at Short, Outman in CF and Vargas in CF….”
Dodgers in on Correa according to two agents for other (not CC) players

Fred Vogel

Wishful prediction: Freddie persuades his good buddy Dansby to join him in L.A. It would sure make Freddie’s son happy.

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers offer Gallo an incentive-laden one-year contract.

Jacob Burch

Agree with the first part. The second I don’t see, as he couldn’t even get into a game in the playoffs and that told me a lot.

OhioDodger

I would be surprised and nauseated if they signed Gallo.

Dionysus

Feels like a monster trade is in the works.

Jacob Burch

Bieber and Rosario? Hendricks and Anderson? I’m not comfortable with the potential prospect costs of a “monster trade” right now. I’m fine with resetting the luxury tax, adding a free agent or two, and staying nimble at the deadline. Devers?

Oldbear48

Giants have offered Judge 362 mil. Rosenthal thinks LA is saving money with an eye on next year when Ohtani is a free agent.

Bluto

As Rosenthal writes:

If the owners didn’t have the money, they wouldn’t spend it.

The owners have TONS of money. Ohtani and Soto will get their fair share

As opined to/discussed with Badger yesterday, this is great.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bluto
Bumsrap

Soto hasn’t been progressing toward $500M. He needs a big year.

Jacob Burch

Poor man’s Benitendi?

Oldbear48

Bell signs a two-year deal with the Guardians. 33 mil.

Jacob Burch

Probably decent value. Too bad he doesn’t fit us at all.

Bumsrap

Friedman tried to sign Trea and Verlander. Sometimes what makes Friedman great is he gets outbid. Time will tell. Example: Anthony Rendon

Sometimes he doesn’t get outbid. Example: Bauer

Dionysus

That was bad process by Friedman

Jacob Burch

Don’t forget bad result.

I know it’s considered “edgy” on some of these alternative blogs to talk about Bauer like he’s a legitimate option for next year but I think we all know he’ll never throw another pitch for us. The only way he can impact us in 2023 is financially.

Dionysus

If it ain’t woke, don’t fix it.

OhioDodger

So you really think the Dodgers will eat $32M if Bauer suspension is reduced to one year? Why would the Dodgers cut him loose to play for the Astros, Giants, or Yankees for league minimum. He was convicted of nothing.

Bluto

YES. Bauer’s done.

OhioDodger

Heaney to the Rangers.

Jacob Burch

Anderson & Heaney snatched up pretty quick this offseason. We have some innings to fill. Taijuan Walker was low-key good last season. Wonder if we could unlock another level with him.

Bluto

Via Twitter.

What’s right about Friedman:

Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Chris Martin and Tommy Kahnle made about $23 million combined last season

After showcasing improvements with the Dodgers, they’ve now combined for $93 million in guaranteed money as free agent signings this offseason

Bluto

Not sure what Fulmer or Erlin have to do with anything. Can’t we just focus on the good?

As for Friedman, I might be bonkers, but isn’t he the one hiring and implementing the Pitching Development team?

Last edited 2 months ago by Bluto
Bluto

Most of that missed me.

Yes, We both think Friedman is great, and we’d also quite like it if Friedman were perfect.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bluto
Badger

Friedman will do the unexpected. He’s always working on something. And it’s no surprise who he wants is Ohtani.

Swanson shows up on “the most likely to be overpaid list.” $25 million for 5-6 years. He had his best of 7 years at the right time. He won’t do 5.7 WAR again.

“If the owners didn’t have the money, they wouldn’t spend it.
The owners have TONS of money.”

Maybe. Try selling that to fans in Oakland, Pittsburgh, Miami, Tampa, Cleveland, Baltimore, Minnesota, KC, Milwaukee etc. Something to remember, it’s not the owners that are paying these salaries, it’s the fans. Always has been. What teams have the highest tv contacts? What teams have the highest FCI costs? That information is available and the answers are not all that surprising.

Last edited 2 months ago by Badger
Jacob Burch

Yeah, but why be worried about someone you can’t even sign right now? If our strategy is to wait for next year, that’s some Cubs-level nonsense. I’m fine with us resetting but we will be replacing some of this leaving talent. Rookies will be asked to supplement, not supplant.

Badger

I don’t think he’s worried Jacob. The Dodgers aren’t rebuilding. If we did nothing we have a winning club, and Friedman is not about to do nothing. He has options.

Bumsrap

If he does sign with the Giants the Yankees will compete for Ohtani with the Dodgers.

Bluto

Bellinger to Cubs.

Gonna be a very different, but still awesome team.

Related: Andrew Friedman yesterday on if LAD needed to add another OF (whether it be Bellinger or someone else):

“I think we have really talented guys in place … It would be nice to lengthen but I don’t think it’s critical. I think we can allocate other places & be a really good team.”

Last edited 2 months ago by Bluto
Bluto

NOTES!

From Baerga:
Judge and Correa to the SF Giants.

From Dave Roberts presser:

— LAD will add an OF this winter, likely one who can handle CF

— Getting another SP is likely, but might be lower cost add similar to Tyler Anderson last year

— Not a reach for 5-6 prospects (Vargas, Miller, Stone, Pepiot, etc) to “impact” team. Roberts specifically also said prospects like Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone and Miguel Vargas will all contribute this season.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bluto
Oldbear48

Oh hell no on Kiermaier. Injury prone and not a power hitter. Great fielder, but that is about all he brings to the game.

Must See

More in Dodger Baseball

63
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x