Carlos Correa, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and of course Aaron Judge have all been linked to LAD at some point. IMO this is primarily because baseball journalists are always quick to point out that the Dodgers have an unlimited supply of cash for payroll. They often mention that the Dodgers have cleared about $100MM from the 2021 payroll, and that is true. But does anyone believe the Dodgers are going to generate another $290MM payroll for 2023? I am not in that camp.
I see no way, no how, the Dodgers sign Aaron Judge. But I will not say they 100% will not. Come on Aaron, just re-sign with NYY and let’s get on with the Hot Stove League in earnest.
So it will not be $100MM that the Dodgers will spend in free agency. I have been out front that I believe the Dodgers will in fact reset the CBT threshold, and have said so since before the season ended. I think they want no obstacles next year for Shohei Ohtani.
The CBT threshold is $233MM for 2023. I calculate the expected payroll to be just about $185MM, or $48MM under the threshold. That includes Clayton Kershaw at $20MM, but does not include Trevor Bauer.
The Dodgers can eat that up with Justin Verlander, which is why I do not believe they will. They were not willing to go 3 years with TA. I cannot see them going 3 years for a 40 year old pitcher, no matter how good he was last year.
Plus, they have an Ace in Julio Urías and three potentially solid if not spectacular #2 – #4 with Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin. Do the Dodgers dare go with a rookie in the #5? I can see that, but what concerns me is that I do not see the Dodgers getting away with #2 – #4 pitching through the season without injury, and if any of them are injured come playoff time, they will be caught short handed for the third season in a row during the playoffs. I see the kids as the depth this year, and ready for prime time in 2024.
But if JV is willing to do 2 years, I think the Dodgers would go over the CBT threshold for him. JV has a home in LA. Last year the Dodgers lost their #5, and then signed Freddie Freeman who is a long time #5. This year the Dodgers lost #35. Could that be a clue that JV (also #35) is coming to LA? Just sayin’.
Will they sign a pitcher to a 3 or 4 year deal or go with a short term reclamation project as they did with TA and Andrew Heaney? I am going with short term reclamation project.
One wild card – Kodai Senga. I would say that the Dodgers are not going to go with a five year contract, but Kenta Maeda got an incentive laden 8 year deal. So who knows?
The other prominent high priced FA target mentioned for LAD is SS. I am convinced they cannot sign Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts. Until AF signs a Scott Boras client to a deal, I am going to continually believe they will not.
That leaves Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Turner is tailor made for Philadelphia. He is the perfect Dave Dombrowski free agent target. I cannot see Dombrowski passing on signing Trea Turner.
Swanson’s contract will not be that onerous for Atlanta. I think it is simply posturing by AA saying they can move Vaughn Grissom to SS. The Braves are setup for a lengthy window with their core signed up long term, and with getting Mike Soroka back in 2023. I cannot see AA letting a player like Dansby Swanson walk. The Braves caught a lot of flak by not signing Freddie Freeman. I cannot see them doing it a second year in a row.
The Dodgers have a lot of leeway to sign high priced free agents, but I do not think they will. And if they do not spend it on top tiered FA’s, who will they target? That brings me to the latest rumor…Mitch Haniger. Haniger has long been a target for Bums. But now that he is a FA, Haniger does not need to be traded to end up with LAD. But alas, I still do not see a fit. Haniger is a RH hitting OF. He is primarily a RF, but he can easily transition to LF. That is not the problem.
Haniger is an oft-injured RH hitter. The Dodgers already have 2 RH hitting OF (Trayce Thompson and CT3), and 3 if you include Miguel Vargas.
Haniger has spent a LOT of time on the IL:
- 06/17/14
- 08/01/14
- 04/26/17 – Strained right oblique
- 07/30/17 = Facial laceration
- 06/17/19 – Ruptured testicle
- 06/28/20 – Lumber microdiscectomy surgery
- 04/16/22
- 04/30/22 – Right high ankle sprain
IMO, the Dodgers will pass on Haniger.
Is Andy Pages an OF in waiting for LAD? Even more reason to pass on a RH hitting OF.
It makes more sense to me for AF/BG to sign a LH hitting OF. If they only want a short term LF, then Michael Brantley makes sense. But if Houston wants him back, I see him signing a one year deal with them. He is comfortable there, and he is liked. Why not play where you are liked and comfortable in the final year(s) of your professional career.
I still think that Andrew Benintendi is a consideration here. The consensus is that he will be a $14MM or $15MM AAV and either 3 or 4 years. I doubt the Dodgers will go 4 years, but then AJ Pollock was a FA signing that came out of the blue. Benny will be playing as a 28 year, so 4 years is not out of line. I just do not know how comfortable AF/BG is giving an OF a 4 year deal, when they just protected Pages and Jonny DeLuca, and still have José Ramos potentially in line.
Benny’s IL stints:
- 08/25/16 – Sprained left knee
- 08/12/20 – Rib cage strain
- 06/14/21 – Rib fracture
The Dodgers have a lot of holes, ample CBT threshold $$$ to make FA acquisitions, and ample MiLB prospect capital to make trades. What will they do?
I have used similar lines, but I am going to steal Houston Mitchell’s line here.
“I wish I could offer more clarity, but Andrew Friedman plays things close to the vest, and he has yet to use the direct hotline to tell me exactly what he plans to do.”
I totally agree, this seems like the year to go with the rookies and or make trades for what they want. This FA list does seem to be the best place for them to shop.
Good analysis, Jeff. I could see it all falling into place the way you’ve laid it out.
There would be some fans who would be upset with the lower spend/let the kids play scenarigo but the way to get around that is to let word get out that you’re saving all your ammo for an all out push to sign Ohtani next year no matter what the cost.
I think Swanson will either be a Cub or a Brave.
Ohtani would be the Dodger DH and historically the Dodgers use the DH to rest players and to keep non-regulars from rusting on the bench.
If the Dodgers were to trade Taylor and Muncy they would have more payroll flexibility to go after at least one free agent.
I think Hanigar will be an Angel if the Dodgers do not trade Taylor.
I think Pages could be a Dodger mid 2023.
The Dodgers are not getting much if other teams sign the players they offered a QO because of their CBT status. They need to reset their CBT status.
I think there is a 50 50 chance that Betts plays 2B in 2023. Depends on whether the Dodgers sign a SS free agent and that depends on whether Muncy and maybe Taylor are traded
Evidently Aaron Judge is looking for at least an 8 year contract at 40 million a year.
Dodgers have four right-handed hitting outfielders if you count Vargas, you forgot Betts. I agree with your analysis here Jeff. I think they would really like to get out from under the fines that they are paying for being over the threshold. I could see them going for a lower tier free agent starter, someone like Walker or even Archer. I think they might even consider bringing Heaney back on a one-year deal. He does have electric stuff and could be a force out of the pen. If they get a veteran SS, I have to believe it will be through a trade. Adames has been mentioned several times. But this is the most excruciating part of the winter. The waiting for something to happen. Boras is looking for only a one-year deal for Bellinger. Makes sense. Have a good season and hike your price next year when you are 28,
Per Bill Shaikin, LA Times, a decision on the Trevor Bauer arbitration is not due until next month at the earliest. Jeff Snider at Dodgers Nation seemed to imply that if the arbitrator decides to lift the suspension completely, the Dodgers would be on the hook for his 2022 salary of $32MM. That does not seem plausible to me. The Dodgers were precluded from pitching Bauer for the entire season due to MLB’s suspension (not LAD’s) MLB should be on the hook for the payroll, not LAD. That is why I believe that if the suspension is lifted, it will not include 2022.
Milwaukee has traded Hunter Renfroe to LAA for three pitching prospects. With Renfroe no longer in the Brewers roster, this makes them far less likely to move Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, or Brandon Woodruff. Renfroe is expected to get an $11.2MM arbitration salary.
Three pitchers:
Elvis Peguero (RHRP) (25 years old) – 19.2 MLB IP, 9.15 ERA, 1.932 WHIP – 258.0 MiLB IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.368 WHIP – #23 LAA Prospect in 2021.
Janson Junk (RHP) (26 years old) – 24.2 MLB IP, 4.74 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, – 355.1 MiLB IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.342 WHIP – LAA Top Prospect #16
Adam Seminaris (LHSP) (24 years old) – 185.0 MiLB IP, 4.14 ERA, 1.400 WHIP. Was a 5th round draft pick in 2020, and pitched at 3 levels in 2022. Total 101.2 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.426 WHIP. Kind of a mirror of Gavin Stone, except the results. Stone was a 5th round draft pick in 2020 and moved thru 3 levels in 2022. Stone is 4 days older than Seminaris. Seminaris was not amongst the LAA top prospects.
MLB Trade Simulator had this as a very even match:
Hunter Renfroe – 1.9 Points
Janson Junk – 0.5 points
Elvis Peguero – 0.4 points
Adam Seminaris – 0.7 points
Total – 1.6 points
Brewers get out of the Renfroe salary and get three lottery ticket pitchers. The Halos get a good OF to replace Brandon Marsh in LF. He will join Mike Trout and Taylor Ward in the LAA OF.