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ITFDB and Predictions for the 2024 MLB Season

 

I also want to be clear.

  • I do NOT want the Dodgers to trade for Adames. The fact that I think Adames is an elite defensive SS, and like him as a player (strikeouts and all), does not mean I am in favor of trading prospect pitching for him.  I can like a player and not believe the Dodgers should trade for him.

 

  • I am fine with Mookie being the SS for 2024 and 2024 only.

 

  • I do not want to move Lux off 2B. He has a chance to be an All Star there.  His bat works more than fine there.  He has plenty enough range for 2B and can make the throws.  I think he lacks confidence right now.  But if he can get back to the 2022 2B, he will be just fine.  BTW, 50 grade arm for a SS is not considered good. It is considered adequate. Scouts want to see at least a 55 but prefer a 60 and above.  Noah Miller has a 60 arm and a 65 field.  Joendry Vargas has a 60 arm and 55 field.  Trey Sweeney has a 55 arm and 50 field.  If Noah Miller ever learns to hit, he will be the LAD SS in the future.  I will worry about next year, next year.

 

  • I WAS WRONG!!! Gavin Stone has taken the #5 spot in the rotation, and did so without much of a fight. Very similar to what Ryan Pepiot did last year.  Except this year, Stone did not get hurt before Opening Day as Pepiot did last year. I maintained that I was in the Emmet Sheehan camp over Stone.  I would have liked to see the competition between Stone and Emmet Sheehan.   But it just wasn’t to be.  I could not be happier for Gavin Stone and the Dodgers.  Stone and Glasnow have been the star pitchers for ST.  I have no idea what happens when Walker Buehler returns.  BTW, while I may have been wrong about Stone, I was right about Glasnow. 

  • I think Teoscar Hernández will strike out a lot this year, but yet he will still be an offensive force for the Blue.

 

  • The Dodgers depth will be unmatched in MLB, but will it be enough to win it all in 2024?

I think it was Bums who asked if I could re-publish the 2023 predictions.  Here you go:

NL West Final Standings:

  • Dodgers
  • Padres D-backs
  • DBacks Padres
  • Giants
  • Rockies

Divisional Winners:

  • NL West – Dodgers
  • NL Central – Cardinals Brewers
  • NL East – Braves
  • AL West – Astros
  • AL Central – Guardians Twins
  • AL East – Yankees Orioles

NL Wild Cards – San Diego, Philadelphia, NY Mets          Arizona, Philadelphia, Miami

AL Wild Cards – Toronto, Seattle, Texas                                Tampa Bay, Toronto, Texas

NL Pennant Champion – Dodgers over Braves               Arizona over Philadelphia

AL Pennant Champion – Yankees over Astros                Rangers over Astros

World Series Champion – Dodgers over Yankees in 7. – Rangers over Arizona

NL Rookie of the Year – Corbin Carroll (Arizona)

AL Rookie of the Year – Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore)

NL CY Award – Julio Urías over Max Fried (Atlanta), Aaron Nola (Philadelphia), Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee) and Sandy Alcantara (Miami).    Blake Snell

AL CY AwardShane Bieber (Guardians) over Framber Valdez (Astros), Shane McClanahan (Rays), and Kevin Gausman (Toronto).              Gerrit Cole

NL Reliever of the Year – Josh Hader – It should be Evan Phillips, but the award is not going to go to anyone but a closer.                        Devin Williams

AL Reliever of the Year – Emmanuel Clase – Guardians  – Felix Bautista

NL MVP – Nolan Arenado (Cardinals) over Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto (Padres) – RonaldAcuña Jr.

AL MVP – Shohei Ohtani over Julio Rodríguez (Mariners)

Gavin Stone MLB Debut – June 2023                                  May 3, 2023

Bobby Miller MLB Debut – July 2023                                  May 23, 2023

Michael Busch MLB Debut – August 2023                         April 25, 2023

Andy Pages – 2024

I had half of the Divisional Winners, 1 out of 3 of NL Wild Cards, and 2 of 3 of AL Wild Cards.  Nothing for teams after that.  Damn those Dodgers and Braves.  We will try them again in 2024.

I predicted both ROY Winners.  Really wasn’t that hard.

I predicted AL MVP.  Again not really surprising.

Not too far off on Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller debut.  Not close on Michael Busch.

 

Singing The Blue:

I think the Pads will win the West but we’ll be a Wild Card. No idea how far we’ll go in the playoffs.

I think the Angels will finally reach the playoffs this year as a Wild Card.
Seattle will be the surprise division winner in the AL West.

I agree that Pages won’t debut until 2024 and I’m going to say the same for Bobby Miller.

I agree with your ROY picks (I’m a huge Carroll fan).
NL Cy Young – Logan Webb
AL Cy Young – Logan Gilbert

 

Fred Vogel:

Braves over Bluejays in the WS.
Dodgers finish 91-71.
One of Bums fantastical trade scenarios actually comes true.
Our host is right on re: ROTYs.
Fingers crossed that Hader is not the NLRPOTY.
Don’t sleep on the D-Backs in the NL West.

Great job on the Dbacks prediction.

 

Bums

I think the Dodgers one way or the other will make the playoffs but will need another bat by June to have a chance at the Division.

NL MVP – Ronald Acuna Braves

AL MVP – Mike Trout, Angels

Gavin Stone MLB Debut – June 2023 I agree with AC

Bobby Miller MLB Debut – July 2023 I agree with AC

Michael Busch MLB Debut – He will be traded

Andy Pages – July 2023

 

Ohio Dodger

Dodgers win 93. Make the playoffs as a wild card.

 

RC Dodger

I could see White Sox winning central and pushing Guardians to wild card.

 

Now for my 2024 predictions.  I am making these even though there is still 10 days before the season truly begins, and there could be trades and/or injuries that could impact my prognisticasions.

       NL West Final Standings:

  • Dodgers
  • Padres
  • Diamondbacks
  • Giants
  • Rockies

The only two I am comfortably sure of are the Dodgers and Rockies.

       Divisional Winners:

  • NL West – Dodgers
  • NL Central – Reds
  • NL East – Braves
  • AL West – Rangers
  • AL Central – Guardians
  • AL East – Orioles

 

  • NL Wild Cards– Philadelphia, San Diego, NY Mets
  • AL Wild Cards– NYY, Houston, Toronto
  • NL Pennant Champion– Dodgers over Braves
  • AL Pennant Champion– Orioles over Rangers
  • World Series Champion– Dodgers over Orioles in 7.  I can’t help myself.  I am the consummate Homer.
  • NL Rookie of the Year– Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) – Others, Paul Skenes (Pirates), Gavin Stone (Dodgers), Jackson Chourio (Brewers) – I am not confident that Pittsburgh will allow Skenes enough outings to be a consideration.
  • AL Rookie of the Year– Wyatt Langford (Rangers) – Others Evan Carter (Rangers), Jackson Holliday (Orioles)
  • NL CY Award– Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers) – Others Max Fried (Atlanta), Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia), Logan Webb (Giants)
  • AL CY Award– Corbin Burnes (Orioles) – Others Luis Castillo (Mariners), Jose Berrios (Blue Jays), and Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays).
  • NL Reliever of the Year– Edwin Diaz (NYM) – Others Camilo Doval (Giants), Evan Phillips (Dodgers), Alexis Diaz (Reds)
  • AL Reliever of the Year– Josh Hader (Astros) – Others Emmanuel Clase (Guardians), Yeiner Canó (Orioles), Jordan Romano (Blue Jays)
  • NL MVP– Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) – Others  Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves), Bryce Harper (Phillies), Mookie Betts (Dodgers)
  • AL MVP– Juan Soto (NYY) – Others Julio Rodríguez (Mariners), Corey Seager (Rangers), Bo Bichette (Blue Jays)
  • Andy Pages MLB Debut– July 2024

Go ahead and give it a shot.

 

 

 

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Duke Not Snider

No predictions here, but I think Farhan did really well in landing Snell to join Webb at the top of the Giants rotation, and also Chapman to solidify the D and provide a power boost. Farhan also scored by signing Jung Ho Lee and Soler–and getting Robbie Ray too, albeit after midseason
What the hell… I’ll predict that the Dodgers will win the division, with the D’backs and Giants battling for second and the Pads treading water in 4th. It must be tough to be a Rockies fan.
Dodgers are stacked, of course. Mookie-Shohei-Freddie will be a wonder to behold. There are some other intriguing storylines:
–Will Mookie succeed at SS?
–Will Yoshi justify his historic contract?
–Will Glasnow realize his Cy potential?
–Will Lux make a strong comeback?
–Will AF sign Will to an extension????

Last edited 28 days ago by Duke Not Snider
Oldbear48

Snell has a career 2-2 record against the Dodgers. All of those starts with the Padres. He never faced them as a Ray except for the World Series. The Giants have a decent front three as far as starters go, but after that, not much. The Dodgers on the other hand at some point will add two Aces, Buehler and Kershaw. Their depth is what separates them from the pack. And they are bound to his better against LHP this season simply because of Teoscar.

Oldbear48

I absolutely suck at predictions. But I have one, Dodgers win the west by at least 5 games if not more. Braves win the east.

Dionysus

Duke–I love Will Smith but I think we are covered at catcher for the foreseeable future.

Duke Not Snider

Perhaps so. We have a wealth of catching talent in the system, but Smith is a proven all-star talent who plays solid D and bats clean-up. He’s a known commodity at a critical position.
As good as Cartaya, Rushing and Liranzo may turn out to be, it’s unlikely that any surpass Smith. Possible, but unlikely. And Shohei’s presence blocks them (and Smith) from the DH role.
Securing Smith for the next 5-6 years could enable them to make some trades and perhaps convert Rushing or Liranzo to 3B to succeed Max.

Oldbear48

My sister’s husband was not expected to survive the night. Mike had a stroke about 28 years ago and has not been able to take care of himself since. He has been totally bedridden for the last several years and since last May, he has been in a care facility near Dodger Stadium.

BlueAZ2020

Sorry to hear, Bear. Godspeed to you and yours.

Oldbear48

Thank you Blue. Appreciate the good wishes.

OhioDodger

My sincere condolences to you and your family Bear.

Duke Not Snider

Sorry to hear about this, Bear. I hope your sister’s husband is a Dodgers fan and is close enough to hear cheers from the stadium, or at least feel the good vibes.

Scott Andes

Wishing you and your family the best Bear, sorry to hear about this.

Oldbear48

Methinks Karnak needs a new turban.

Dave

Predicting and expecting are 2 different things. We know who the talented teams are and predict them to play well. But we’ve also seen that injuries happen, chemistry doesn’t always work, some team goes on a hot run etc so expecting a certain outcome seems ill-advised. So when a dude says “I guarantee we’ll win the WS” that’s just foolish.

Sam Oyed

Jeff,

Do you expect the Dodgers to trade Lux? If Betts only plays SS this year, I assume he will slide back to second in ‘25. Where does that put Lux?

Singing the Blue

I had the same question when I read your prediction, Jeff.
If Mookie moves off SS next year, how does that affect Lux?
Or do you see Mookie moving back to the outfield?

Singing the Blue

If Lux plays an adequate 2B this year and hits the way we all know he could, he’d be quite a trade chip.

Badger

Dodgers by 10 with a 1 seed.

I agree with Jeff’s picks but I don’t think Glasnow will have enough innings to win the Cy. None of the Dodger pitchers will

Pitchers benefit from having a great defense behind them, one that takes the outs they are given and steals a couple every game, thereby lowering the number of pitches and increasing number of innings pitched. That ain’t the Dodgers. I have no clue what team might be that defense, but I know the dbacks are very good defensively so Zac Gallen might be a dark horse pick for Cy. He projects 200 innings and if he can keep his ERA down that team will get him enough wins to be in the running.

I think Freeman has a good chance for MVP in this lineup. I think Mookie’s numbers might fade as the season goes on. Playing middle infield defense, especially shortstop is a lot busier than playing right field. He’s a great athlete but he isn’t 25 anymore (his MVP year) and that kind of switch is demanding. I hope I’m wrong about this.

Fred Vogel

Dodgers 105-57
Padres and D-Backs tie for 2nd
Giants
Rockies
WS: Orioles over Dodgers in 6

Bobby

Excellent article today from espn.com re Tyler Glasnow, an absolute freak athlete:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39761373/tyler-glasnow-dodgers-seoul-series-opening-day

RC Dodger

Good predictions Jeff.

I agree with Duke about the Snell signing. Farhan actually made some solid value signings. I think he overpaid for Lee, but Snell, Chapman, Soler Hicks, and Ray additions are low risk, high return signings. The Giants and Dbacks improved their rosters, and Padres lost a ton of good players but are still competitive. The NL West will be a competitive division with the Dodgers easily the best regular season team. But the Dbacks or Giants would be a tough playoff matchup if they made it.

My predictions for 2024:

NL West – Dodgers
NL Central – Cubs
NL East – Braves
AL West – Astros
AL Central – Twins
AL East – Orioles
NL Wild cards – Phillies, DBacks, Padres
AL Wild cards – Rangers, Yankees, Mariners
NL Pennant – Braves over Dodgers
AL Pennant – Orioles over Rangers
WS Champ – Braves over Orioles
NL ROY – Yamamoto. Imanaga, Lee, Chourio.
AL ROY – Holliday, Carter, Langford
NL Cy Young – Strider, Webb, Wheeler, Gallen
AL Cy Young- Burnes, Gausman, Valdez, Castillo
NL MVP – Acuna, Betts, Tatis
AL MVP – Judge, Soto, Seager

Dionysus

I don’t care about anything but a championship and maybe some fun along the way.

Bluto

No predictions, but news from Internet:

Ben Clemens Chat
Josh: Dave Roberts indicated Shohei may play the field at some point this season. You buying it?

Ben Clemens: I think it makes sense as a long-term play. Reasonably speaking, the Dodgers have to assign a reasonable probability weight to Ohtani giving up pitching at some point. So doing it in a way that increases their defensive flexibility, and in a year where it won’t be impacting his rest on the pitching side, makes sense to me. He’s clearly a good enough athlete to do it

Jenny: Do you think Gavin Lux will have the breakout that was suspected before the ACL injury? And what does that look like? .270/15/10?

Ben Clemens: man, I understand why the Dodgers keep trying to make Lux happen, but at some point you have to accept that it won’t.. I think that this is it, and I’m down on a breakout, I feel like his having the yips is just a really bad sign. It’s a freaking pressure cooker in LA, that’s not ideal

Made Wiley: Crazy that the worst case scenario for the Dodgers is just putting Miggy Ro at ss, Mookie back to 2nd and they still easily win the division

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah they’re good!

Spring Breakout game follow-ons: Dodgers prospects Justin Wrobleski (1st team) and Patrick Copen (2nd team) were named to the All-Spring Breakout teams, based on the game over the weekend. Both pitchers struck out 4 in 2 scoreless innings against the Angels. OF Kendall George (3B, 2B) was named to 2nd team.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Zach Crizer writes ($$$$) about how Teoscar Hernández saw more sliders last year than any MLB hitter ever has in a single season and what that portends for pitching.

What Do 868 Sliders Do to a Hitter’s Season?

“.. When he goes after the fastball he’s been roughly the equivalent of Freddie Freeman. When he goes after the breaker he’s worse than Taylor Walls”

Baseball America has their first Mock Draft. It’s almost certainly going to be badly wrong, but it’s something. It’s also ($$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-charlie-condon-jac-caglianone-make-strong-impressions/

LAD takes Bryce Rainer, a shortstop/RHP at Harvard-Westlake.

THIS ONE IS FOR BADGER.
On Twitter, Chris Bassitt thinks pitchers are getting hurt because teams are too obsessed with velocity.

“[human bodies] are made to throw 91-92 and that’s ok”

Mike Petriollo takes a look at how baseball batting orders are now being constructed:
https://www.mlb.com/news/number-2-spot-in-lineup-now-the-best-in-baseball

It starts with what we have all observed and then goes DEEP.

“Because lineups simply aren’t constructed the same way they were back in Babe’s day, when it was mainly: “Put the fastest hitter at the top, the good bat control guy second, and your best hitters third and fourth,” … For the first time in the Live Ball Era of AL/NL baseball (since 1920), the second spot in the order is more productive on a relative basis than the third spot. That actually undersells it; for the first time in that history, the second spot is the most productive spot in the order. Also for the first time, the leadoff spot is as productive as the cleanup spot. ”

Over at The Athletic, the great Andy McCullough ($$$$) writes about the upcoming Dodger season:
https://theathletic.com/5339265/2024/03/18/dodgers-shohei-ohtani-era-opening-day/

“Roberts has described anything short of a championship in 2024 as a bust. Of course, he has spoken with that confidence before. He guaranteed the Dodgers would win the 2022 World Series. That team set a franchise record with 111 victories, but crashed out of the postseason in four games. The disappointment increased the motivation to add Ohtani. Before the season, Roberts suggested his players should worry less about external noise and concentrate on individual progress. Ignoring the noise, he acknowledged, will be tougher than ever.”

FanGraphs has a series of positional rankings:

Second Base, by Ben Clemens

2024 Positional Power Rankings: Second Base

Dodgers are at 10 (Red Sox at 17.) “This one is pretty much guesswork. The Dodgers had the best second base situation in the majors before they announced that Betts was moving to shortstop full-time after Lux had a spate of throwing issues in his spring training audition there. ”

First Base, by Jay Jaffe

2024 Positional Power Rankings: First Base

Dodgers at #1 (Red Sox at 8). 
“if an injury does fell Freddie, it seems more likely Muncy temporarily reclaims his spot while a stronger defender mans third.”

Catcher by Kyle Kashimoto

2024 Positional Power Rankings: Catcher

Dodgers at #4 (Red Sox at 27)

Hunter Feduccia projected to get 6 (SIX) plate appearances. 

Singing the Blue

Love these posts you do Bluto. Always very informative.

Bobby

Agree. Thank you!

Singing the Blue

OK, here’s my go at it for 2024:

NL division winners: Dodgers, Cubs, Braves
NL Wild Cards: Phillies, D’backs, Giants

AL division winners: Rangers, Tigers, Yanks
AL Wild Cards: Astros, Orioles, Mariners

NL Pennant Winner: Dodgers
AL Pennant Winner: Rangers

World Series Winner: Dodgers (glass half full, at least for now)

NL CY: Spencer Strider
AL CY: Tanner Bibee

NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL MVP: Gunnar Henderson

NL ROY: Jung-Hoo Lee
AL ROY: Jackson Holliday

Bumsrap

I’m working on short sleep here, not that based on whatever I say below needs that caveat.

  1. The Dodgers will make several big trades during the year.
  2. Smith will get MVP votes.
  3. The Rotation will be ranked in this order by mid July: Glasnow, Stone, Sheehan, Buehler, Yamamoto, Miller. Paxton, Kershaw, May, Gonsolin.
  4. Lux and Betts will still be the middle infielders in July.
Singing the Blue

What kind of trades? Give us a clue, oh Great Predictor.

Bluto

Very controversial the team going to a 10 man rotation!

Joking.

Bobby

Is everyone else planning a 3am PST wakeup the next couple days as well???

OhioDodger

6am here in Ohio. Breakfast Baseball. Steak and Eggs with hash browns. Ribeye is thawed out. I may have a mimosa. Or three. Go Dodgers.

Singing the Blue

Now that sounds like the way to start the day, OD.
Do you think you could come up with an extra ribeye and pick me up at the airport?

OhioDodger

Depends on where you are. Plenty of Steaks, hash browns, and mimosas. And eggs, sunny side up.

Singing the Blue

I appreciate the offer but I’m in LA and it’s too late to get a flight to Ohio. Where in Ohio are you? (don’t worry I’m not coming)

OhioDodger

Columbus

Dionysus

You have already won, OD.

Fred Vogel

Taping.

Oldbear48

Thanks, guys, for all of the prayers and best wishes. Mike passed away at 12:25 this morning. He was surrounded by his family and pastor. He went peacefully. His illness over the last close to 28 years has been a stressful and hard time for his sons and my sister. They are at peace.

OhioDodger

Again, my condolences. Taking care of my elderly father who is 96, I know how hard it is to take care of a loved one that is incompacitated. It takes a toll.

Last edited 27 days ago by OhioDodger
Singing the Blue

Sorry to hear the news Bear. Can’t imagine how stressful those years must have been for the immediate family. May he rest in peace.

Oldbear48

Thanks STB. It is really appreciated. Dodgers placed four pitchers on the IL including Graterol and Treinen. Opens the door for Landon Knack to make the opening day roster.

Singing the Blue

Along with Feyereisen, Hurt and Varland, none of whom I would have bet on a week ago.

Duke Not Snider

Great news for Knack.
He’s paid his dues and I hope he sees some action.

Duke Not Snider

Condolences to your family, Bear. Like many of us here, I’ve seen how difficult these long-term conditions can be on all concerned.

Oldbear48

Oh hell, why not. My predictions. AL East: Yankees, Orioles the wild card. AL Central: Minnesota. AL West. Texas wins by a hair. Astros get the Wild card.
NL East. Braves. NL Central, Brewers, NL West Dodgers. LA wins 109 games. The third wild card team in AL, Cleveland. Three NL wild cards. Arizona, Reds and Cardinals. NL MVP: Ohtani. AL MVP: Judge, NL ROY: Yamamoto AL ROY no clue. NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider. AL Cy Young, Corbin Burnes

Duke Not Snider

OK, I’ll play: AL East: Orioles, Yankees the wild card. AL Central: Minnesota, with Tigers as wild card! AL West: Ange–oops, I mean Astros. Rangers get wild card.
NL East: Braves, with Phils as Wild Card. NL: Central: CUBS! with Reds as wild card. NL West: Dodgers, with D’baks as wild card.
AL MVP: Soto. NL MVP: Shohei. NL ROY: MICHAEL BUSCH! AL: Jackson Holiday. AL Cy: Burnes. NL Cy: Logan Webb.

Bobby

Well, that was worth getting up at 3am for! I”ll do it again tomorrow.

Oldbear48

Wasn’t pretty, but we’ll take it.

Oldbear48

Got up to watch the game at 3:15. Little action, a lot of walks and some excellent work by the Dodgers pen. Ofer with men on base until they scored 4 in the 8th. Ohtani hit a couple of balls over 110 MPH. One was a loud foul and the other his single that was clocked at 112. Most unbelievable play was the bouncer by Lux that broke Cronenworth’s glove. Win for Hudson, save for Phillips. Pens were the difference. LA’s pen, four relievers totally shut down the Pads. Padres seven relievers allowed all the winning runs. Pads pitchers walked 9. LA walked 4. New rules for getting Jumbo Jacks is 7 K’s, LA had six. Padres also had 4 pitch clock violations. LA none. Glasnow went 5, gave up two runs, walked 4 and struck out 3 with basically 2 pitches. He could not land his curve and bounced it several times. Lux made all the plays at second and Mookie did the same at SS. Game was over 3 hours long. Ohtani and Betts each had two hits. There were no extra base hits in the game.

Badger

Dodgers got very lucky on that easy Lux double play ball. Inning should have ended there.

Lux continues to throw sidearm. If that doesn’t change his throwing problems will continue. And he starts the year 0 for 5.

Barksdale with a questionable game.

Starting with WRISP problems already, 2 for14, 13 LOB, but a win is win.

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