It’s Feeling A Bit Drafty

I’m not sure why, but every year I get excited about the MLB baseball draft (albeit less so as I grow older).  The selection of young players is something akin to bringing home a new puppy from the animal shelter.   You’re in love with the selection, but you’re never quite sure what you’re getting with that pup.  You may bring home that special pet that becomes a member of the family for years to come.  On the other hand, you may wind a yapping dog that, no matter how much training you provide, never stops peeing on the carpet.

I have had a love for amateur baseball for a very long time.  Having coached for so long, and then having the joy of watching sons play college ball, I’ve naturally followed high school and college teams and players and the many friends and acquaintances that I encountered over the years.  For me, that has added an additional level of my fandom as I watch these young players compete and chase their dream of playing in “the show.”  Frankly, I enjoy watching amateur baseball as much, if not more, than the pro-game.  It’s hard to beat the excitement of the college playoffs for the College World Series.  Perhaps that is why the MLB Draft has some fascination for me.

This year, the MLB Draft will be held July 17 through July 19, 2022.  It will be held in Los Angeles in conjunction with the All-Star game and festivities.  The first two rounds and supplemental rounds will take place on Sunday, July 17^th.  Rounds 3-10 will take place on July 18^th, and Rounds 11-20 are set for July 19^th.  In the first 10 rounds, the Dodgers will pick at Nos. 40, 105, 135, 165, 195, 225, 255 and 315.  They’ll have the 30^th pick thereafter for the remaining 10 rounds.  The Dodgers’ bonus pool is $4.2 million, which happens to be the lowest among all 30 teams.  Bonus pools are calculated by adding the slot values of every pick through the first 10 rounds. The slot values for the Dodgers picks are:

• Pick 40: $1,950,900.
• Pick 105: $582,400.
• Pick 135: $435,000.
• Pick 165: $325,200.
• Pick 195: $253,200.
• Pick 225: $199,700.
• Pick 255: $169,000.
• Pick 285: $156,500 and
• Pick 315: $149,500.

I have no idea how slot values are determined.  Players from high schools, junior colleges, 4-year colleges or other amateur clubs in the United States and its territories and Canada are eligible to be selected in the Draft.

Because the Dodgers blew past the competitive balance tax threshold in 2021 they suffered not only financial penalties, the Dodgers first round pick dropped from 30^th to 40th overall.  They forfeited their second round pick for signing Freddie Freeman.  They gained a compensatory pick after the second round for losing Corey Seager, but again, because they paid the luxury tax last year, that pick was dropped to after the fourth round, which they then promptly forfeited when they signed Freeman.  The Dodgers 3^rd round pick, 4^th round pick and the 5^th through 20^th round picks are in their normal position.

For the second year, the MLB draft is taking place during the all-star break.  For years before, the Draft was always held in June, but last year MLB made the change to July, The change was made, ostensibly,  to spice up the all-star ratings and not conflict with the College World Series.  Most college coaches, however, don’t like the later July date because it creates far too much uncertainty for them with respect to what players they will have on their team.  Moreover, because the Draft is later in the summer, it leaves college coaches with far less time to fill holes on a roster that inevitably happen due to players lost to the draft.  It places their roster-building plans on hold, and then there is a mad dash to fill those holes through the transfer portal.  Frankly, the MLB draft is not going to be spiced up until such time as the teams are allowed to trade draft picks.  In my opinion, adding that element to the draft would make it far more interesting and potentially beneficial to the lesser teams.  Being able to trade, for example, a second round pick for a minor leaguer who has an established track record, may be more enticing to a team in need of more immediate infusion of talent.

MLB, like some other pro leagues, now also holds a draft combine.  The draft combine is an opportunity for the 300 prospects to impress further and interact with scouting directors and team general managers.  This year it was held June 14^th through June 20^th at Petco Park, San Diego.  In the past, it was not unusual to have players flown into LA for private workouts at Dodger Stadium.  I assume those workouts will still happen, but teams are very tight lipped about who they bring into town for these workouts.

Every year, teams invest millions of dollars to identify and select the top amateur talent through the draft. Teams devote money and resources to scout amateur talent in order to find the players that will be able to make an impact at the Major League level.  On average, it takes draftees 3 years to earn a promotion to the Major Leagues, which demonstrates that there is a great deal of randomness contributing to the success or failure of baseball players selected in the draft.  Typically, less than one in five drafted players make it to the show.

To help you get a clearer picture of how much of a crap shoot the draft can be, I want to first show you the players that were chosen in the past 5 drafts at the positions the Dodgers draft this year:

** did not sign

As you can see, not too many household names.  Of the 37 players listed, 4 have reached the majors (Thompson, Bader, Bubic, Velasquez), 7 have cracked their teams top 30 prospect list (Fulton, Kolhepp, Hurter, Chamberlain, Klein, Wesneski, and Johnson) and the rest are still trying or they have given up and headed on to other means to make a living.

In the past 5 years, the Dodger have made the following selections in proximity to where they are selecting this year:

Of the 39 players selected, the Dodgers have 9 players listed in their top 30 prospects (Miller, Busch, Pepiot, Bruns, Nastrini, Stone Heubeck, Taylor and Vogel), one of which (Pepiot) has made it to the majors, albeit on a shuttle train between OKC and Dodger Stadium.  One did not sign (Ginn).  5 have been traded (Wong, Marinan, Reks, Pop, and Bannon), the jury is still out on 6 of them (Sheehan, Robertson, Outman, Lewis, Fisher, and Mann), two are injured (Little and Ching), two are on the restricted list (Montgomerie and Liput); 5 are no longer with the organization (Cooper, Otteson, Strain, Heyer and McLain) and I’m not sure where Warzek is pitching, though he is still listed as being with the organization.

In connection with the draft, many sports publications enjoy making mock drafts.  I’ve never understood the fascination with that activity, but there some (e.g. Mel Kiper in the NFL) who are experts with a bit of celebrity status, because they guess what someone else might do.  Often, these guesses are based on player rankings/ratings that are put out by the same publications.  The player rankings/ratings are determined, mostly, by individuals who have not played the sport.  Nevertheless, they give themselves the title of expert and many flock to read their predictions.   Because the Dodgers don’t have a selection in the first (the 40^th pick falls out of the regular first round) or second round, there haven’t been too many mock drafts predicting their selections.  Baseball America has the Dodgers selecting Dalton Rushing, a catcher out of Louisville University; ESPN has them selecting Eric Brown, a shortstop from Coastal Carolina University; and Prospects Live has them selecting Ian “JR” Ritchie, a high school pitcher from Bainbridge, Washington.  Other than being a fun exercise, mock drafts are by and large meaningless in that other than perhaps the first 4 or 5 selections of the first round, most mock drafts don’t come close to being correct. But then, mock drafts cause no harm and they do give us something to read and talk about, as we wait for the actual selections to occur.  So, despite what I’ve just written, I’ll join in the meaningless endeavor and make some wild ass guesses as to whom I would pick if I was in Billy Gasparino’s shoes.

• Pick No. 40:   Peyton Pallette, RHP Arkansas University. This choice just has AF/Gasparino written all over it.   Pallette did not pitch in 2022, because he had Tommy John surgery before the season (think Walker Buehler folks).  He’s made to order for the Dodgers. Apparently, according to some of the rankings/ratings people, he has first round stuff when he’s healthy.  I’m not necessarily sure what first round stuff means (does that refer to Mark Appel or Clayton Kershaw?)  Other prospects I would consider with this pick are: Connor Prielipp, Eric Brown, Brock Jones, Cade Horton, Landon Sims or Jacob Misiorowski.  I think they select college here and hope to be able to save some money by going below slot.

• Pick No. 105:   Michael Knorr, RHP Coastal Carolina.  He’s a big righthander, that transferred from Cal State Fullerton.  He’s a strike thrower with some decent velocity (Think a slightly lesser version of Landon Knack).  I would also consider Gabriel Rincones or Ivan Melendez at this position.

• Pick No. 135: Trey Lipscomb, 3b, University of Tennessee.  We need to add to the 3B base prospect pool.  Lipscomb is an average defender, but he has some pop in his bat.  He also appears to be an easy sign because he doesn’t have the leverage of returning to school.  Others I would consider here are: Noah Dean, or high school pitcher Austin Charles.

• Pick No. 165:   Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Fletcher HS, Florida.   He’s young, new to pitching and has lot’s of potential.  At this point on in the draft, I was too lazy to evaluate other players to make any additional guesses.

• Pick No. 195:   Tyresse Turner, 2B, USC.  This one’s for Jeff.  We have to select a Trojan!!

• Pick No. 225:  Austin Henry, RHP, Dell Rapids (S.D.) HS.   Apparently, he’s a master at spinning the ball.

• Pick No. 255:  Alex Iadisernia, OF, Elon University.   My wife is of French Basque decent, and Iadisernia is a Basque sounding name.  Whether he is of Basque decent or not, I’m going to select him here.

• Pick No. 285:  Alex Rao, RHP, Notre Dame.  Strictly a relief pitcher and we always need those.

• Pick No. 315:  Eric Reyzelman, RHP, LSU.  I really want him to return to LSU, as I think they are going to have a special team that could go all the way.  So, I’ll help my friend Jay Johnson out, by selecting Eric, and then sacrifice the slot value to have him return to school.

There you have it.  None of the above players will actually be chosen by the Dodgers, but now you can jump in and tell us who you would select, and why.

I haven’t done a song for the day for quite awhile, so I thought I would return to one I’ve used before, with some updates. So with apologies to Phil Ochs (who I consider to be one of the most underrated acoustic singers of the 1960s), I break out my version of the Draft Dodger Rag:

Oh, I’m just a typical American boy from a typical American town

I’d play baseball from the early morn until when the sun goes down

I would throw and hit until my fingers bled

But when it came to drafting me, buddy, this is what I said:

Coach, I’m only eighteen, I got an arm so mean,

And I can spot that ball on a dime

I got eyes like a hawk, I run like a deer, and my strength is off the charts

Yes, think of my career with the Dodgers dear, and how I could be throwing darts,

But keep in mind, I ain’t no fool, I can go back to school,

Unless you pay me what I’m worth! 

I’ve got power to spare and no park can hold me in

I’m hitting machine and all I do is slug

I hardly strike out and I know how to take a walk

You’ll never catch me taking drugs.

Coach, I’m only eighteen, I got an arm so mean,

And I can spot it on a dime

I got eyes like a hawk, I run like a deer, and my strength is off the charts

Yes, think of my career with the Dodgers dear, and how I could be throwing darts,

But keep in mind, I ain’t no fool, I can go back to school,

Unless you pay me what I’m worth! 

Ooh, I hate those Giants and I hope they finish last,

And I can help you make that come to be

So if someone’s gotta to shut them down

I hope that someone’s me

So I wish you well, Coach, just make me your selection,

And pay me a million or so,

But if you’re to cheap to pay, then I won’t play

I’ll be the first to let you know

Coach, I’m only eighteen, but I’ve got an arm so mean,

And I can spot it on a dime

I got eyes like a hawk, I run like a deer, and my strength is off the charts

Yes, think of my career with the Dodgers dear, and how I could be throwing darts,

But keep in mind, I ain’t no fool, I can go back to school,

Unless you pay me what I’m worth!