I am through with the medical tests, and I should learn the outcome in the next 2 weeks. The Doctors say that there does not appear to be anything for me to worry about, so I will not. Now back to Baseball.
Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Drew Pomerantz are all free agents after this year. And with Manny Machado probably opting out, that is $93.7MM in real contract and $84.1MM AAV They may try to re-sign Hader. I think they are better off letting Machado walk, moving Tatis Jr. back to SS and Bogaerts to 3B. There will be some arbitration increases, predominantly for Juan Soto, but nothing too difficult to navigate except for Soto.
Most believe that the Pads will go all out for Ohtani. But I do not believe they will stop there. I believe they will do a SIGNIFICANT OVERPAY for Julio Urías. San Diego is not shy about overpaying (See Bogaerts and Judge/Trea Turner offers). Nothing would make that crazy ass fan base more rabid than to steal away Urías from the Dodgers.
I believe there is a real threat of Julio Urías pitching opening day for San Diego in 2024.
Something tells me that the Dodgers were embarrassed last year. Embarrassed or pissed, makes no difference. I think this year they will be playing with extra incentive. I think they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. There have been more player Dodger Stadium workouts this year than in any year I can remember.
Gavin Lux putting on 15 pounds of muscle and still working on his speed and range…every day. Will the reward be a solid All Star level play at SS? That is why they play the games.
Miguel Vargas has seemingly been working out at Dodger Stadium at 2B all winter. Getting Chris Woodward to work with Vargas at 2B is a huge plus. Will Vargas turn into a passable or better than passable defensive 2B. I believe in his bat projections. Miggy should be one of three top NL ROY potentials, with Corbin Carroll and Kodai Senga. Kodai Senga with 11 years in NPB? Remember, Hideo Nomo won ROY in 1995 after five years in NPB.
Max Muncy phasing out his revised 2022 swing to get back to the more comfortable pre-injury swing. Having a full Winter to get in baseball playing shape, something he could not do last Winter. Phasing out his “fix it swing” from last year:
“I’m trying to phase it out,” Muncy said. “Now that I’ve had a full offseason getting stronger and getting healthy, the past couple weeks that I’ve been starting my swing I’m doing no step back. I’m trying to make sure that I’m very cognizant of what my body is doing. I’m checking the film on it and trying to make sure I’m working downhill. It’s something that I don’t like the extra movement in the timing aspect of it, so I would like to not have to do it. But I know it’s there if I need it.”
Muncy believes that his Winter workouts, and being healthy, will make for a representative year of the All Star Max Muncy. He had this to offer in an interview with Doug McKain:
“I really feel like one of the most important parts of being a player is the offseason. I feel like that’s where you make your most gains, and you’re able to get the most endurance for the season. And the two worst years I’ve had, last year obviously coming off the injury, but I wasn’t able to work out at all in the offseason. And then in 20, I had a really good offseason, and then we had the Covid thing, and so then it was like, well here’s three months where you’re doing a workout in the backyard, which didn’t really amount to anything. So my two worst years have come off years where I haven’t really been able to get my offseason workouts in, so I feel like that’s one of the most integral parts of being a player, is getting after it in the offseason.”
I look for Max Muncy to have one of his 30 HR and .850+ OPS seasons, and I look for the Dodgers to pick up his 2024 option. He wants to retire as a Dodger. Then again so did JT.
Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy, and Spencer Strider. What do they have in common? I mean other than being members of the Atlanta Braves. They have all signed long term deals before their free agency platform seasons. Most were pre-arbitration deals that went through multiple free agency years, while two they acquired via trade with Oakland were in their arbitration years.
This is the new contract strategy of Alex Anthopoulos.
- Matt Olson – $168MM for 8 years, with a $20MM club option (2030)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. – $100MM for 8 years with two $17MM club options (2027 and 2028).
- Austin Riley – $212MM for 10 years with a $20MM club option (2033)
- Ozzie Albies – $35MM for 7 years with two $7MM club options (2026 and 2027)
- Michael Harris II – $72MM for 8 years with two club options: $15MM (2031) and $20MM (2032)
- Sean Murphy – $73MM for 6 years, with a $15MM club option (2029)
- Spencer Strider – $75MM for 6 years with a $22MM club option (2029)
Missing from that list is Max Fried who has two arbitration years remaining. He has submitted a $15MM 2023 salary vs Atlanta’s $13.5MM.
Atlanta has never exceeded the CBT threshold. They are projected to surpass it this year if Fried wins his arbitration. They have never made any comment indicating that they will not surpass the threshold. So I would not expect Fried to be moved for salary saving purposes. They are still a favored NL pennant contender, so Fried will be needed.
What does this have anything to do with the Dodgers? Will Smith is a perfect extension candidate, and there are multiple comps for the both the Dodgers and Smith’s agent to ponder.
The Athletic just did an outstanding article on what a Will Smith’s extension would look like. Very few catchers have gotten off to a better start to their career than has Will. fWAR totals in pre-arbitration years:
- Buster Posey – 15.8
- Russell Martin – 15.8
- Brian McCann – 14.9
- Will Smith – 14.8
- Sean Murphy – 13.4
- Yasmani Grandal – 12.8
- Joe Maurer – 10.4
- Willson Contreras – 8.3
- Salvador Perez – 7.1
The most recent and probably most pertinent comp would be Sean Murphy. Murphy and Smith were both in their year 1 arbitration in 2023. Murphy got a 6 year extension for a guaranteed $73MM and a club option for a 7th year at $15MM with no buyout.
The Athletic projects that a fair market extension would be 6 years for $84MM with a club option for a 7th year for $17.5MM and a $2MM buyout. That would be $86MM guaranteed or $13MM more than Murphy. Based on Smith’s better fWAR, $13MM is a fair increase over Murphy. For those of you who have a subscription to The Athletic, I heartily recommend the article.
That is $14.333 AAV for a projected Smith extension. Willson Contreras just signed a 5 year deal for a guaranteed $87.5MM or $17.5MM AAV. Will Smith want to wait until his FA to try and outdo Contreras, or could Smith be convinced that $86MM guarantee is a sweet enough deal. Are the Dodgers open to a fair market extension for one of their prized “kids”? Is 6 years too much?
I hope we beat some ass this year. I was embarrassed too.
I concur. I was not embarrassed, Been watching the game too long to assume anything; Just simply reminded me of the meltdown in 2019. If the Dodgers were embarrassed, then so were the Braves and Mets. The Mets lost to the Pads and the Braves were beaten by a 80 something win team.
I think you are spot on about the chip on their shoulder. I think fans are underestimating the desire of guys like Thompson and Heyward. Both of whom in my opinion are going to be a huge part of the Dodger plan. I think moving Geren from bench coach to field coordinator was a move designed to get some fresh views on the bench. Geren may have even requested the move, who knows. Padres want to beat the Dodgers so badly they are capable of any move. But they are running out of assets in the minors. They have traded some of their better prospects. And while their bullpen and offense are pretty formidable, their starting pitching past the big three is questionable. I think Urias is gone simply because Boras is his agent. Scott does not play well with others.
Glad to hear your doc said things look good so far. Waiting for test results is never fun.
Totally agree on the possibility of Julio winding up in SD. They will certainly go after him hard.
Just a thought but if Smith thinks the Dodgers future will probably involve Cartaya doing a lot of catching, he might not be anxious to sign an extension. Might prefer to go somewhere that will allow him to catch most of the time rather than spending a lot of time at DH or 3B.
You are absolutely right about what Smith may want. I think most fans forget that extension is a two way street. Just because they believe that the Dodgers should extend Player X, does not mean that Player X wants to be extended. Also outside of Mookie Betts and Austin Barnes, name a LAD that has been extended post arbitration. And let’s face it, Austin Barnes is hardly a risk at 2 years $7MM.
I think technically Max Muncy’s first deal was a 3 year extension through his arbitration years, but not for his FA years. Although he did have a club option for his first FA year that was exercised. The same with CT3 for his final two years of arbitration. Buehler and Gonsolin were 2 year deals that did not even take them out of their final two arbitration years.
One other extension was Clayton Kershaw. He had a pre-arbitration extension in 2014 (pre AF), but was also extended 3 years in 2019…3 years $90MM. Clayton actually agreed to the three year extension hours before he was to opt out of his final two years and become a free agent. His deadline was actually extended by both parties.
If there ever was a player the Dodgers should have extended long term, it was Corey Seager, and yet it did not happen. The Dodgers do not extend players. They also do not give players 9 figure long term deals. AF has signed exactly two players to 9 figure deals…Mookie and Freddie. He has made 9 figure offers, but always behind the winning bid. And IMO, well behind.
The thing I like about the Braves deals, is that none of them appear to be a significant overpay. Maybe Riley, but I still think that was a good deal for both parties. Atlanta’s extension contracts are not that onerous that a team would not assume the deal in a trade. The downside is if 2-3-4 of those players get injured and/or decline at the same time. It should also be noted that none of the Atlanta “kids” are represented by Scott Boras.
I am not very optimistic about resigning Urias after this season. Should have extended him 2 or 3 years ago for 6 or 7 years.
Seven years ago, Urías was a 19 year old with all of 77.0 IP. Promising sure, but not for a long term extension as a 19 year old. Six years ago (2017), Urías underwent major shoulder surgery. Most were concerned that he might not ever return. He missed most of 2017 and 2018. In 2019, the Dodgers were very careful with him and he moved between starter and reliever and registered 79.2 IP. In 2020, he moved between starter and reliever, but made his presence known as a reliever in the playoffs. That season catapulted Julio into his first full season starting role (2021), and he excelled. He pitched even better in 2022.
Until 2021, the most IP for Julio was 79.2. He had not proven that he could be a top of the rotation starter, and pitch 162+ innings.
The Dodgers were holding on to Urías. They could have moved him in 2016 to the ChiSox in a Chris Sale trade. Urías not being included is what held up that deal. He was untouchable for the Dodgers. Boras was not about to sell short the last two years before FA.
The timing for a Urías extension was never good. The Dodgers were not going to extend a pitcher coming off major shoulder surgery, and Scott Boras was not going to let him. Urías will now become a $200MM+ pitcher. It is going to be to who offers the most. There will be no home team discount.
Hi Jeff, glad you are doing OK. Hope everything works out for you.
I did not mean to give Urias an extension 6 or 7 years ago. I meant to give him an extension 2 or 3 years ago for 5-7 years.
Takes two to tango.
Okay, I misread your point. It would have been ideal to extend Urías after 2020, but I doubt that Boras would even consider it. It is not that Boras will not extend to the same team. But it is up to the player to make that demand. Jose Altuve did that in Houston, and Stephen Strasburg only wanted Washington when he opted out of his contract after 2019. So it does happen. But most players sign with Boras to get top dollar on the open market. I doubt that Urías is any different in that regard.
What might an extension have looked like after 2020? 6 years $90MM? He hadn’t proven himself as a starter at the time. Boras would have countered with; “Julio I will get you north of $200MM if you wait two years.” He did the same for Seager telling him he would get him a $300MM+ deal if he waited. Seager waited and Boras delivered. Urías is a 26 year old pitcher from Culiacan, Sinaloa, Mexico, making $22.25MM over the past 2 years. He can afford to wait.
I agree with your point. I just do not believe that Boras and Urías thought that way.
I read an article on Diego Cartaya and Will Smith that concluded…Cartaya can be even better than Smith when you combine his power, speed, strong arm, and high baseball IQ.
Smith has been placed on the IL for 10 days in 2020 for neck inflammation. That is it. He stays healthy, something Cartaya has not done.
Power – In his first two full seasons, Smith has hit 25 and 24 HRs at the MLB level. His lowest OPS was last year at .808. That was 2nd only to Realmuto for qualified catchers (502 PA). Cartaya hit 22 last year in A Ball. 9 in the California League launching pads.
Speed – Smith is 10th out of 85 catchers in sprint speed. J.T. Realmuto has a sprint speed of 28.8 vs Smith’s 27.5. Smith’s sprint speed is 0.1 behind Willson Contreras. Those are the three fastest everyday catchers in MLB. Is Cartaya really faster than Smith? If so, is it measurable?
Smith’s arm is above average in every aspect.
· Arm Strength – 22nd (83.6). Christian Bethancourt #1 at 88.3
· Pop Up Time – 16th (1.93). J. T. Realmuto #1 at 1.82.
· Exchange – 22nd (0.71). Tomás Nido #1 at 0.63.
I do not know where Cartaya would fit on this spectrum, but it is doubtful that he is measurably better than Smith.
High baseball IQ. How is that measured? Smith has been the regular catcher for a team that has won 106 and 111 games the last two years. He has been the regular catcher for a pitching staff that has led MLB in almost every pitching metric the last two years. Smith seems to be doing something well as a catcher.
There really is no argument that J. T. Realmuto is the best overall catcher today, but Will Smith is not far behind. And at the MLB level. Not A/A+ level. I like Cartaya, but he is an unproven prospect. Will Smith is a top 2 MLB catcher, when considering MLB shredder (or Baseball Prospectus fantasy rankings). Before we fans start calling for the Dodgers to move Smith to another position to make room for Cartaya, can we at least see how he does at AA and whether he can stay healthy for a full year?
I remember many fans calling for Smith to be moved to 3B so that Keibert Ruiz could be the everyday catcher. Name me one team that would take Keibert Ruiz over Will Smith today.
In addition, there are many in and out of the organization who believe that Dalton Rushing is not that far behind Cartaya, and could push him this year.
I hope Smith and Dodgers can agree on an extension. I would like for him to mimic Buster Posey’s career.
It is interesting to see the pay comparison between the best third basemen and the best catchers. Shredder says Smith is the second best catcher and yet his AAV for extension purposes is $13.5MM. Arenado, Machado, Devers to name a few make more than three times that amount.
Now that Vargas is projected to be a second baseman there seems to be a void long term at third base. If Smith were able to defend third or even better be a plus defender at third and Cartaya or Rushing continue to move toward the Majors, I don’t know why Smith would not be in the picture long range for third.
I would love to see Smith mimic Posey’s career. I think Posey is borderline HOF. Maybe he just did not play enough for the sportswriters. But that would be a great career for Will Smith.
Posey was an All American at SS for Florida State as a freshman. He moved to catcher as a sophomore. Posey played 229 MLB games at 1B (201 starts) . No other position, even though he was a college SS. He caught 1,093 games and was DH 31 games.
Smith was primarily a catcher for all three years at Louisville, but he did play some limited infield. When he was not catching, he was primarily the DH. The Dodgers experimented with Smith at 3B when he was teamed with Keibert Ruiz. At the MLB level, Smith has played 1 game at 1B and 1 game at 3B, and made an error on his only chance at 3B. That does not mean he cannot play there, but the Dodgers did not believe in him as a 3B enough to keep Ruiz. In 486.1 innings at 3B in MiLB, Smith had 129 total chances and had 14 errors for a .891 fielding average. There is nothing to indicate that Smith could even be an adequate defensive 3B. Most catcher’s secondary position is 1B. It is hard to spend 130+ games in a squat for multiple years and then have nearly enough range at 3B. Maybe he can. There is just no evidence of that.
The Dodgers tried Joc at 1B and Lux at 3B and both did not end well. It is not that easy to play a secondary position at the MLB level. There really is only 1 Craig Biggio. Leave Smith at catcher. The Dodgers will find a 3B when the time comes. Maybe even your Matt Chapman.
…the Dodgers did not believe in him as a 3B enough to keep Ruiz.
or, was it that they didn’t think enough of Ruiz to make him catcher?
Not disagreeing but the Dodgers needed a catcher so why would they have given Smith the Vargas treatment to help him become a 3rd baseman?
I’mgood with Smith behind the plate/DH for the next 5+ years with Rushing or Cartaya as backup/DH and trading Cartaya/Rushing for a 3rd baseman.
A few days ago I shared a thought that the Giants would be the team that signed Machado if he opted out after this year and that the Padres would then move Bogaarts to third and Tatis back to short. I also ventured to say that the Padres would trade Soto and then go after Ohtani.
I hadn’t thought about the Padres going after Urias. Although I think Urias fully appreciates how the Dodgers took care of him and Boras has said that himself, if the Padres overpaid it would be very hard for Urias to stay with the Dodgers even if he really wanted to do so.
I think the Angels will also go hard for Urias.
I would agree that the Angels and Padres will probably be our main competitors for re-signing Julio.
With absolutely no facts to back up my opinion, I have come to the conclusion that he would like to be playing in a west coast city that would keep him fairly close to his family in Mexico.
Actually Arizona and Texas would qualify also so that would add the D’backs, Rangers and Astros to the mix, with the D’backs probably not being willing/able to spend that kind of money and the Astros possibly not needing a starter badly enough to pay that much. Now we’re down to LAD/LAA/SD/Tex.
If not the Dodgers, I would rank them SD first, and then Texas. Boras has a good rapport with that organization. Both teams have proven they are not afraid to overpay. Urias has had too much exposure to the playoffs to agree to pitch for the Angels. But they are not afraid to overpay, and Boras will go where the most $$$ are. So maybe.
Here is the list of Non Roster Invitees to ST. Notice that one of the OF is none other than Yusniel Diaz.
Knack will be AA ace.