Before I get back to the Pitcher and Catcher reviews, I thought I would take a look at the dates critical for the 40-Man roster construction.
There are two 40-man-roster-related things that happen the day after the World Series ends. First, free agents earn that official designation, meaning they are dropped from the 40-man roster. Second, players on the 60-day IL and are under team control come back onto the 40-man roster.
The Dodgers have 46 players on 40 man roster including 6 non free agents on the 60 day IL. There are 10 LAD free agents, thus the 40 man roster will drop to 36. The 36 include the 4 players with club options.
The Dodgers will have 5 days after the WS for exclusive negotiating rights for their free agents. If any of these are signed during this period, they are added back to the 40 man roster. I would not think any LAD FA will come to terms during this exclusive negotiating period.
Before this 5-day exclusivity period ends, any player(s) the Dodgers want to offer Qualifying Offers (QO) to must be offered, and the players then have 10 days to accept or decline. Trea Turner is a given, and Tyler Anderson and Clayton Kershaw are possibilities. This year the QO is set at $19.65MM.
The five day post WS period is also the deadline for teams to decide which players they will exercise their club options. The Dodgers have four in this category:
Any player whose club option is not exercised, that player is removed from the 40 man roster, opening another spot. If all free agents with a QO decline, and all four club options are not exercised, the 40 man could drop to 32.
Why is this exercise important? On November 15, any player eligible for the Rule 5 draft must be added to the 40 man roster.
Rule 5 draft eligibility rules:
Any professional player who signed their initial contract as an 18-year-old or younger, that player becomes eligible for the Rule 5 draft after their fifth professional season. Any player who initially signed at 19 or older is eligible after their fourth professional season. A very general rule (very general) first time eligible players are international free agents signed in 2018, and players drafted and signed for the 2019 MLB Rule 4 Amateur Draft are eligible.
The Dodgers currently have 68 players that qualify for the Rule 5 draft, including 20 first time eligible players:
Michael Busch – 2B/1B/LF – OKC (AAA)
Nick Robertson – RHRP – OKC (AAA)
Aaron Ochsenbein – RHRP – OKC (AAA)
Brandon Lewis – 3B/1B – Tulsa (AA)
Kody Hoese – 3B/ 1B – Tulsa (AA)
Andy Pages – OF – Tulsa (AA)
Jonny DeLuca – OF – Tulsa (AA)
Ryan Ward – OF – Tulsa (AA)
Alec Gamboa – LHP – Tulsa (AA)
Jake Cantleberry – LHRP – Tulsa (AA)
Diego Cartaya – C – Great Lakes (A)
Zac Ching – Infield – Great Lakes (A)
José Ramos – OF – Great Lakes (A)
Carlos Duran – RHP – Great Lakes (A)
Hyun-il Choi – IL – Great Lakes (A)
Jeff Belge – LHRP – Great Lakes (A)
Jack Little – RHRP – Great Lakes (A)
Braydon Fisher – RHP – Great Lakes (A)
Jerming Rosario – RHP – Rancho Cucamonga (A-)
Jhan Zambrano – RHP – Rancho Cucamonga (A-)
The projections below are in my opinion only. I have not read anywhere who will be protected.
Of that group, there are 4 no-doubters:
- Diego Cartaya – C – Great Lakes (A)
- Michael Busch – 2B/1B/LF – OKC (AAA)
- Andy Pages – OF – Tulsa (AA)
- José Ramos – OF – Great Lakes (A)
Next group for consideration:
- Jonny DeLuca – OF – Tulsa (AA)
- Carlos Duran – RHP – Great Lakes (A)
Players that were not protected in previous years, who could get taken in the Rule 5 Draft:
- Ryan Noda – 1B – OKC (AAA)
- Leonel Valera – SS – Tulsa (AA)
- Hunter Feduccia – OKC (AAA)
- Devin Mann – Utility – OKC (AAA)
- Drew Avans – CF – OKC (AAA)
- Justin Yurchak – 1B/LF – Tulsa (AA)
How many players get protected is a guess at this time. A team does not have to have their 40 man roster filled.
The next date that will be important is November 18, Tender Date. This is the date that all players on the roster have to be offered a contract. The amount is not disclosed. What it really signifies is which players on the roster, without an existing contract, do they want to negotiate with. This is when we will learn if Cody Bellinger will be tendered or non-tendered. Belli is not the only one that could be non-tendered, just the most likely.
After this date, the 40 man roster should be known, and whether there is room for a team to draft a player under MLB Rule 5. Of course that number could be increased or decreased by trades and/or FA signings prior to the draft.
When is the Rule 5 Draft?
The Winter Meetings are scheduled to be held December 4 – 7 in San Diego. The MLB Rule 5 draft is held on the last day of the meetings.
The Rule 5 Draft allows clubs without a full 40-man roster to select certain non-40-man roster players from other clubs. Clubs draft in reverse order of the standings from the previous season.
A team that selects a player in the Rule 5 Draft pays $100,000 to the team from which he was selected. The receiving team must then keep the player on the Major League 26-man roster for the entirety of the next season, and the selected player must remain active (not on the disabled list) for a minimum of 90 days.
The player must be placed on outright waivers in order to be removed from the 26-man roster in the subsequent season. Should the player clear waivers, he must be offered back to his previous team for $50,000 and can be outrighted to the Minors only if his original club does not wish to reacquire him. If the original club re-acquires the player, that player must be placed on the 26 man roster. If the player does not clear waivers, the team that acquired the player must place him on the 26 man roster.
Sometimes, teams will trade another player to the Rule 5 player’s original team so they can keep the player they selected, but still send him to the minors.
Not every club will make a selection, even if they have availability. Once a team passes on a draft pick, that team can no longer participate in the current year ML portion of the draft.
There was no MLB Phase Rule 5 Draft last year. But there was the MiLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Each organization can protect 38 players on the AAA roster.
There are no eligibility rules that have to be maintained in the minor league phase. The player is drafted, the player’s old organization is paid $24,500 and immediately the player becomes a member of his new organization. Almost all of the players picked in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft are viewed as useful organizational players for their new team, but occasionally a player does find his way to the majors with his new organization.
Last year, the Dodgers selected three in the MiLB phase.
- RHP – Carson Fulmer – Assigned to OKC
- RHP – Jon Duplantier – Assigned to OKC
- C – Kekai Rios – Assigned to Great Lakes and then to Tulsa
Carson Fulmer has already elected free agency. Duplantier and Rios are still with the Dodgers.
There are so many twists and turns that will take place with the LAD roster before ST. The option decisions, Rule 5 protection, and tender v non-tender are just a small number of those paths that must be traversed.
Baseball America has just published their awards for 2022.
There was a 1st and 2nd team selections for MiLB All Stars. The Dodgers got one player. RHP Gavin Stone was named one of the 5 starting pitchers. Gavin was the lone MiLB award selection for the Dodgers.
Tampa Bay had 3 selections – (1 first team and 2 second team)
Arizona had 3 selections – (2 first team and 1 second team)
St. Louis had 2 selections – (1 first team and 1 second team)
Cleveland had 2 selections – (1 first team and 1 second team)
San Francisco had 2 selections – (2 second team)
Boston had 2 selections – (2 second team)
LAD, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Baltimore, Cincinnati, San Diego, Detroit, Houston, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee had 1 first team selection.(Philadelphia
LAA, Chicago Cubs, NYM, Kansas City, Seattle, and Washington had 1 second team selection.
Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore SS) was MiLB Player of the Year, and Andrew Painter (Philadelphia RHSP)
Baseball America 2022 Rookie Player of the Year – Julio Rodriguez.
C – Adley Rutschman, Baltimore
1B – Jose Miranda, Minnesota
2B – Brendan Donovan, St. Louis
3B – Bobby Witt, Jr., KC
SS – Jeremy Peña, Houston
OF – Michael Harris II, Atlanta
OF – Julio Rodriguez, Seattle
OF – Steven Kwan, Cleveland
DH – Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
SP – Reid Detmers, LAA
SP – George Kirby, Seattle
SP – Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati
SP – Joe Ryan, Minnesota
SP – Spencer Strider, Atlanta
RP – Felix Bautista, Baltimore
Two Orioles, two Twins, two Braves, and two Mariners.
Baseball America’s MLB Player of the Year was Aaron Judge.
The Dodgers had two 1st team MLB All Stars…Trea Turner (SS) and Julio Urías (SP).
They had three 2nd team MLB All Stars…Will Smith (C), Freddie Freeman (1B), and Mookie Betts (OF).
J.T. Realmuto was 1st team selection at catcher.
Paul Goldschmidt was 1st team selection at 1B.
Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Mike Trout were 1st team selections for OF.
I agree that Cartaya is a lock, Pages simply because I think he is a trade chip. Busch will get a long look in spring if Turner is not re-signed. I know very little about Ramos.
Since a team has to keep a rule 5 player on their 26 man roster why eould they select a player like Jose Ramos who is only at A ball?
For the same reason they protected Eddys Leonard and Jorbit Vivas last year. Some bottom team will pick him up and hide him. He is playing very good in Arizona Fall League. There are already some who think he is a better prospect than Pages. Michael Harris went from A Ball last year to AA early this year and then to the odds on favorite NL ROY for Atlanta. He played all of 43 games above A+ League, where Ramos was this year. If selected by Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Oakland, and others, they would hide these players.
You mean hide them on the major league roster? Take up a spot for a player that not ready? Or play him at the big league level just to keep him?I’m just curious how it works and what the strategy is. I know the Dodgers moved a couple low level guys and I just assumed they were close enough some weak team could use them.
They would keep them on the ML roster for the season. Teams like Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati are not going to contend for the next several years. They can pick up a player like Ramos and play him at the ML level all year. If he falters, he can be optioned the following year.
It does not happen all that much, but if there is a spot, they choose to protect the player. Last year, Eddys Leonard played 66 games at Low A (Rancho) and 41 games at A+ (Great Lakes). Jorbit Vivas played 83 games at Low A and 23 at A+. They were both protected. The Dodgers were not going to release a ML player who could help the team win in 2022 to protect either player, but they were able to keep both. This year it looks like they can protect a couple more lower level players. The Dodgers might prefer to protect a 22 year old Ramos over a 26 year old Feduccia.
It is a big guessing game, and one that AF plays very well.
There are some highly rated prospects on that list. Not all can be protected. Do you anticipate a trade at the Winter Meetings?
I think they will protect the 4. After that? It will partly depend on which team options are exercised. DeLuca had a break out year. Somewhat like Outman the year before. Duran could be a lockdown late inning reliever if he stays healthy. But he is probably not a better late inning prospect than Kopp or Harris (regardless of his AFL season). A team like Pittsburgh or Oakland can hide relievers like Carlos Duran.
I think they have to try and package prospects for players. Outside of Cartaya, the Dodgers lack the elite prospect. They have a lot of good to very good depth prospects. Vargas can hit, but does he have the power required for corner OF? A lot of talent evaluators do not think he does. Busch has the power, but is a strike out machine. A lot like Outman, except Outman can play defense. As I said earlier, there are plenty of talent evaluators who believe that Ramos has caught Pages as on OF prospect.
Ramos has a better hit tool (50 to 45), a better arm (40 to 65), better field (55 to 50), but not as good of power (55 to 60). Pages has two 60 or better tools (Power and Arm), while Ramos has one (Arm). But Pages has a below average hit tool. Power wins out in talent evaluation.
Elite prospect. We have 6 in the Top 100. Only Cartaya is elite?
We are going to reload with a goal of winning the Division again. Building a team for the playoffs is impossible. Resting a superior veteran team doesn’t appear to work. So… what, if anything, do we do differently?
Do you believe everyone in the Top 100 is elite? I don’t. Yadier Alvarez was a top 50 prospect. Multiple other prospects including Jon Duplantier (now with OKC), Jahmai Jones (now with the Dodgers), Beau Burrows (just granted free agency from LAD), Taylor Trammel…were top 100 prospects. Now they are all struggling just to stay in the game. Prospect is one thing. Elite prospect is another.
Just askin. Feels like all the young elite players are playing somewhere else.
Been doing a lot of reading around the Dodger blogosphere. Don’t post much where I used to, tired of the ambushes, but I read a lot just to get a feel for the zeitgeist. Good word, zeitgeist. After reading hundreds of posts, my name being mentioned in some, I’ve come to the conclusion many fans are leaping forward with opinions based on emotion. It’s a sign of the times I suppose.
Most of you know my opinion on what happened with the Dodgers. 1 RBI out of 26 opportunities with runners in scoring position, in a 3 game series (3 losses in a row) says it all for me. Yeah, the pitching, yeah Roberts pitching moves, but you don’t hit in the clutch you don’t deserve to win. What can you do about that? I know what I would do. The Dodgers wouldn’t listen to me.
The engine of this offense operates on 8 cylinders. I don’t count Bellinger anymore. Several of those cylinders weren’t operating in that series. Mookie, the lynchpin, was awful. Smith, JT, Thompson, Taylor, Lux, all absent. Say goodnight, drive safely on the way home.
A lot of talk about analytics. My take? Analytics are here to stay. Everywhere in life, this world is driven by algorithms. Adapt or die. The baseball numbers that I still firmly believe in are OBP, 2 strike success (approach) and the success rate of line drives. All or nothing three outcome baseball looks beautiful when it works. When it doesn’t work? Well, it’s embarrassing isn’t it.
We aren’t going to fire our hitting instructors, our coaches or our manager. But they all must adapt. With the shift being discarded hitting line drives will become more important.
More on all this later. It will be along off season. We have plenty of time to talk about these things.
Interesting stat this post season; the Yankees in one game struck out 17 times, the Astros 2 times. Neither team is hitting that great but putting the ball in play has been beneficial to all teams this post season.
With the new rules coming next year, will making contact over launch angle be emphasized? How does lack of defensive shifts help the Dodgers? Can’t say I’ve seen every game but from what I recall, Muncy lost hits due to a rover whereas Bellinger not as much.
Also, with a pitch clock and larger bases, I would expect speed becomes paramount. This would argue for signing Trea Turner long term. However, I suspect that AF has been planning a Seager to Turner to Lux transition at SS for awhile.
I’m willing to bet (50 push-ups) rule changes will do very little to change the Dodgers offensive approach. Size of bases and pitch clock have little to do with on base plus slugging. I think eliminating the shift will only help sluggers a little bit. There will be an increase in singles to right, but I predict there will be a corresponding increase in double plays. That’s the optimist in me speaking.
50? Over what period of time?
30 minutes.
I figure that’s a safe bet. By the time we know the answer, nobody here is going to remember the bet. If I’m right, I’ll remind everybody.
You’ve got pushup bets strewn all over the blogosphere. I remember every one of them, Badger.
You now owe us 468 pushups.
And I want them done in 30 minutes.
I do visualization push-ups. If you can see it, you can decree it.
I’m believin’ we’re even boys.
Having a difficult time watching these playoff games. I just don’t give a damm. I’ll watch a few innings then read about the games tomorrow.
Living in Washington, I will miss golf far more than I will miss the Dodgers this winter. The days are getting shorter and it seemed all day yesterday I thought it was about 2 to 3 hours later than it actually was. Hot Stove not here yet but I turned on my fireplace this morning.
There was a lot missing from the greatest Dodger team in history with an 111 win season. It was the first year for a NL DH and yet for much of the season the Dodgers had 5 of their 9 hitters in their lineups that hit like pitchers. Their rotation had 3 that were roll-the-dice types in Gonsolin, Anderson, and Heaney. And, Roberts kept “hitters” that were under the Mendosa Line high in the batting order for over half of the season.
Are we ready for Hot Stove? You bet.
Good stuff, Badger.
Thank you Fred. I appreciate that.
Jacob Amaya. Not typical of the shortstops we have had of late. MiLB slug % .393,, but his OBP after 6 years in the minors is .362. If he could maintain that and hit .250 in the bigs he could have some value. Honestly, I see Friedman looking elsewhere, and I hope it isn’t Swanson. That gut struck out 182 times this year. Yeesh. What we don’t need is more of that.
Some jabber out there about pick off rule change and the effect it will have on stealing bases. I think I look at differently than most. After two throws over pitchers can’t throw over again… unless they pick you off. Yeah, there’s going to be more successful steal attempts, but I see more successful pick offs too. Smart pitchers will take advantage.
Ill go out on a limb here, it’s a short limb, and say the Dodgers are going rebuild the outfield. Pages and Busch may be used to upgrade something, pitching most likely, but maybe outfield. Mookie to the infield is not out of the question but I say not yet. Friedman will look to replace Bellinger, CT and Thompson. He may not be successful, but he’s gonna try, Not sure about JT. He was good for stretches, but, if we can land Arenado (not likely) JT is gone. Muncy? I’d like to see him lose a few pounds, (try 90 minutes of Pilates 5 days a week Max) but I see him back, mostly as a DH. Wish I knew what the plan for Rios was. Hate to have him leave and then see him go Alvarez on the league.
I can see Kershaw watching the goings on before making a decision. He can pick between the Rangers and Dodgers but the Rangers aren’t going anywhere and with one maybe good year left he might stay where he is. He can help the Dodgers win another Division title and do it with 20 starts and 120 innings. A 6 man rotation, yeah, I’m back to that again, would help everyone in that rotation but none more Kershaw.
I’d start with trying to trade for Reynolds. Pages, Outman, Grove, …
I’d like Bobby Witt at third. KC wants to build around him but their record says they need to insert multiple new players into their lineup. Vargas, Busch, Miller, Taylor, Graterol, ..shall I go on?
Realistic or just playing around? Mostly the latter.
Witt is not going anywhere.
These are the trades I like to propose. It is my response to those saying how good the Dodger farm system is or that it is the best of them all. Well if the Dodgers can’t trade their top 5 prospects for Witt then just how good is it really?
What makes you assume that it’s the Royals who say no to Witt for the top 5 prospects? Maybe Andrew says no. Depending upon whose list you look at, Cartaya, Miller, Vargas, Busch, Stone might very well get it done. Or not.
What Jeff said.
I think maybe you’re inhaling too much smoke. But, you’re a product of the 60’s, so, that’s not unexpected.
I’m somewhat surprised at all the folks who seem ready to dump CT3 so quickly. He had a miserable year, for sure, but his trade value is the lowest it’s ever been. I’d definitely try to help him through this for next year and if the results are still the same, then OK, time to wave good-bye. He gives you a backup left fielder, center fielder, shortstop and second baseman. There’s definitely value in that. He re-made his swing once, maybe it’s time to try again.
“He gives you a backup left fielder, center fielder, shortstop and second baseman. There’s definitely value in that.”
I agree! Now find a trade partner who also believes that.
I agree. His salary is too high for that role. I always thought he got more weak base hits than any of the Dodgers. There are other teams besides the Dodgers looking for a center fielder and KT3 could be that guy.