I like to take a periodic look at the LAD roster as it is constructed at the time. There has not been much of a change, and I do not expect there to be a huge change going forward. I am anxious to be surprised and wrong by that comment. I have added Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller, as both are expected to make the team out of ST as it is presently constructed.
Starters:
- C – Will Smith – 2 Options
- 1B – Freddie Freeman
- 2B – Chris Taylor
- SS – Gavin Lux – 2 Options
- 3B – Miguel Vargas – 2 Options
- LF – Trayce Thompson/James Outman – 2 Options
- CF – James Outman/Trayce Thompson
- RF – Mookie Betts
- DH – Max Muncy
Bench:
- C – Austin Barnes
- 2B/DH – Michael Busch – 3 Options
- Infield – Jacob Amaya – 2 Options
- OF – Jason Heyward
Starting Rotation:
- Julio Urías
- Clayton Kershaw
- Tony Gonsolin – 1 Option
- Dustin May – 3 Options
- Ryan Pepiot – 2 Options
Relievers:
- Yency Almonte – 0 Options
- Caleb Ferguson – 2 Options
- Victor González – 2 Options
- Brusdar Graterol – 2 Options
- Daniel Hudson –
- Shelby Miller –
- Evan Phillips – 0 Options
- Alex Vesia – 2 Options
Starting Depth on 40 man:
- Michael Grove – 2 Options
- Andre Jackson – 1 Option
Reliever Depth on 40 man:
- Phil Bickford – 0 Options
- Justin Bruihl – 2 Options
- Jake Reed – 1 Options
If the Dodgers do not intend on losing Phil Bickford, they are either going to need to trade him or replace someone with options on the 26 man roster. Bickford has zero options remaining and will need to be DFA’d if he is not part of the 26 man roster at any time during the season.
Position Player Depth on 40 Man:
- Diego Cartaya
- Eddys Leonard
- Jorbit Vivas
- Andy Pages
- Jonny DeLuca
60 Day IL:
- Walker Buehler
- Blake Treinen
The Dodgers have 37 on the 40 man roster. I am speculating that Jason Heyward will get one of those spots. I am also becoming more convinced that AF does have an inkling about the outcome on the Trevor Bauer dilemma, and my guess is that he expects that Bauer will be reinstated for 2023, and that $34MM AAV will be added to the pool.
I know that it is way too early, but after losing Ryan Noda, Jose Hernandez, and Gus Varland, I do think the Dodgers have to look at who is coming up next winter for the Rule 5 draft. I continue to semi-joke about the 87 RHP the Dodgers have, and that there is no possible way they can keep and use them all. There are 8 RHSP that could conceivably be selected.
Rule 5 Eligible – 2023
- RHSP – Bobby Miller – AAA
- RHSP – Gavin Stone – AAA
- RHSP – Landon Knack – AAA
- RHSP – Nick Frasso – AA
- RHSP – Kyle Hurt – AA
- RHSP – Kendall Williams – AA
- RHSP – Edgardo Henriquez – TJ IL
- RHSP – Carlos Duran (2nd year eligible) – TJ IL
Miller and Stone will be activated onto the 40 man at some point this year, so they will come off the list. There are three other RHSP (Nick Nastrini, Emmet Sheehan, and Peter Heubeck) and two LHSP (Maddux Bruns and Ronan Kopp) on the 30 top prospect list that are not yet eligible. And if you add Pepiot, Grove, and Jackson, that makes14 RHP in the immediate pipeline. Perhaps the problem is that the Dodgers cannot afford to lose Pepiot, Miller, and Stone, and the other MLB teams are not overly impressed with the other RHP. You are not going to convince Cleveland to trade Shane Bieber or even Amed Rosario by packaging Nick Frasso, Kyle Hurt, Kendall Williams, and Maddux Bruns. Too many fans believe you can get an elite pitcher/player by packaging 4-5-6 marginal prospects whose chance of succeeding in MLB are remote.
It is clear that the LAD prospect strength is their RHP. I cannot presume which pitcher would be of interest to any other team. I never thought that Gus Varland was a pitcher with any kind of demand, and yet Milwaukee picked him up in the Rule 5 draft. But it is also clear, that the team cannot fit all of them onto the roster in the next couple of seasons.
One other developmental strategy that has befuddled me through the AF years is the relative slow pace the vast majority of prospects move through the system. Gavin Lux just turned 25, and he figures to be the second youngest player on the 26 man roster to break ST. The youngest? Miguel Vargas who is 23.
7 of my projected 13 position players on the 26 man roster are over 30. Thus the mantra of wanting to get younger and more athletic. Thus far, it does not seem to be working. Shelby Miller is 32 and Jason Heyward is 33.
Compare this to the Atlanta Braves, and how they push their prospects through:
- Ozzie Albies – 20 as a rookie – 26 in 2023 – 2 time AS
- Ronald Acuña Jr. – 20 as a rookie – 25 in 2023 – 3 time AS – ROY
- Michael Harris – 21 as a rookie – 22 in 2023 – ROY
- Vaughn Grissom – 21 as a rookie – 22 in 2023
- Austin Riley – 22 as a rookie – 26 in 2023 – 1 time AS
- Spencer Strider – 23 as a rookie – 24 in 2023 – #2 ROY
- Max Fried – 23 as a rookie – 29 in 2023 – 1 time AS
- William Contreras – 23 as a rookie – 25 in 2023 – 1 time AS
5 of the above have been All Stars; 2 have been ROY with one #2, and multiple SS and GG awards. Atlanta chose Matt Olson over Freddie Freeman (probably not by original design), but gained 4.5 years. Now they have acquired another sub 30 regular, catcher Sean Murphy, who will be 28 in 2023. The cost was in part one of the above youngsters, catcher/DH William Contreras.
Atlanta is loaded with pitching prospects. Not elite pitching after losing Kyle Muller in the Murphy trade, but good pitching depth all the same. They still need a new LF, or hope that Eddie Rosario finds that old magic again. They did trade for Sam Hilliard, but he is more of a defensive OF. They are a very young team and because of all the extensions, are controlled for years out. Max Fried is the outlier, and he has been rumored to be potentially traded. Extremely doubtful since Atlanta is in a win now mode, but it does give insight as to how the Braves wish to construct their roster.
The Giants have signed Carlos Correa. 13 years $350MM.
Does anybody out there believe that Dansby Swanson will be signed by LAD? Ahhhh. Trevor Bauer, the gift that keeps on giving.
That puts the Giants at $189MM. More than enough breathing room for Carlos Rodon.
Dodgers or the Giants? I do not think LA is even considering Rodon. Not with him wanting 7 years.
Rodón COULD still go to SF. They have room. But with Manaea and Stripling pushing DeSclafani and Junis to the pen, it is doubtful that the Giants will entertain Rodón. It is more likely that Rodón will go to NYY. They have to try to keep up with the NY Cohens and the Astros. They have to replace Jameson and still improve their bullpen just to get back to where they were last year.
Swanson is headed to Minnesota or Chicago. His wife is a professional soccer player and plays for the Chicago Red Stars in National Women’s Soccer League. Looks like she is comfortable in Chicago.
Giants and Padres are nipping at the Dodgers heels, or is it now the other way around?
Padres have more than caught us on paper. Giants are still a step behind.
If Bauer is reinstated, they absolutely have to have him in the rotation.
I think you’re right Bear. Correa in SF, Bogaerts in San Diego and Bauer in LA. Crap.
Friedman. CBT. 111 wins and beaten easily by a team that got better. I couldn’t sleep and I get up to this. I don’t feel so good.
Just wanted to say how much I enjoy your insight and detail. I always read Mark’s column and now I have two I read daily. Thanks.
Who is Mark?
LADT It is his blog,
Thank you Ken. I hope you keep reading and commenting.
I’m curious about a few things here that are difficult for me to get a handle on:
Depends on how many women are on the jury.
SO far none of this has come before a jury.
Oh.
I think everyone knows I am not a fan in any way, shape, or form of Trevor Bauer, but he does not deserve 2+ years of suspension. There is no evidence that what Bauer did was not consensual. Maybe it was and maybe it was not, but there certainly was not enough evidence to convince a DA that there was a crime. I recognize and acknowledge, that no charges is not the same as innocent, but take away 2 years of a person’s ability to earn the money that a MLB player can earn in a very short work life is vengefully malicious.
What Roberto Osuna and Marcell Ozuna did were meant to do harm, and their punishment was far far less than what was handed down to Bauer. But it is just as malicious to the Dodgers, and they are the true innocent in this mess. Signing a player who the Commission has total disdain for, and one who is a social media pariah, does not warrant what the Commissioner, through the arbitration panel, is doing to the Dodgers.
This is precedent setting, and it needs to be addressed.
Well said. Write that to the commissioner’s office and add my name to it.
What about projections? Fangraphs has some decent numbers but obviously no innings pitched.
This trade is hilarious. Friedman literally acquiring a guy coming off major surgery. He just doesn’t care what the popular is, does he?
I hope not.
Typical AF trade, but read about the guys upside. He has a very low walk rate. Most were surprised the Rays DFA’d him. He is an arm for 24 and maybe late this season.
I thought when I read that Tampa Bay was looking to trade J.P. Feyereisen, I immediately thought the Dodgers. This is a fantastic trade for the Dodgers. Feyereisen is not even arbitration eligible. He will have 3 years of control beginning next season. He is one of the better relievers in MLB, and unfortunately for Tampa Bay, they cannot afford to have 3 60 day IL guys on the 40 man at the same time going through the winter, while the Dodgers can. Think Evan Phillips.
This is exactly what AF does. He sees an opportunity for low risk and high reward, and pounces. MLB minimum (or close) for a top reliever for 3 years who just might be able to come back at the end of 2023.
The cost is Jeff Belge. One of those 87 RHP prospects that are in the LAD organization.
This deal has nothing to do with 2023. It is a long term look ahead.
Don’t get me wrong. I love the process. Arbitrage-like. But how often do these deals help us? Duffy, Hamels, Kahnle, etc. Sometimes we get too cute.
What is “too cute” about any of those trades?
How many championships have they helped us win?
Treinen extension too. We just love handing money to injured players.
ah, this type of reasoning.
so the Astros deals are not cute, but everyone else’s moves from last year were.
ah, this type of commenter
yes, you win
i give up
our previous trades for injured players have resulted in great success, other than trea turner–whom some say choked when it counted.
joking or not?
Not all were trades. Kahnle and Hamels were signed as free agents. How many draft picks have actually been significant in any pennant run? How many rookies actually made any impact in a World Championship? Not all signings work. Neither does every trade for a star player. And the way the game is structured today, just getting there is not all that easy. And just because you do get there, then the chips have to fall correctly, and the players need to play at a high level. They should have won in 17. But we know the Astro’s pretty well knew what was coming at least in game 5 which was very pivotable. Not all injured players are going to come back as good or better than they were. This trade costs them nothing and gives them three years of control over a very good pitcher. I do not see your bitch at all.
Difference between those three guys you mention and JPF is that he has 3 years of control remaining (3 1/2 if he makes it back after the All Star break this year).
This one is not as costly. Three years of arbitration control.
I admit I was more hopeful on the Kahnle deal working out. 2 years at $5.25MM was not a lot for the Dodgers. I use two years because of AAV. Hamels was a $1MM gamble that failed. What if it worked? Duffy? I have no idea. Again, $3MM for LAD for a chance is not out of line. Take all of those away and it has no impact on the 2022 CBT threshold, and the actual payroll was not onerous for the Dodgers.
Now the Blake Treinen extension that you mentioned later, I agree whole-heartedly with. The Dodgers should have more thoroughly checked out his medicals AFTER he was advised to have surgery, but chose not to. I am more than okay that Treinen chose to not have the surgery after praying on it, but AF/BG have to do more than pray on it. IMO, they did not do their due diligence on this one. And this does impact 2023 AAV.
Depth. low risk high reward. Kahnle at least gave them some games. If Duffy or Hamels had been healthy who knows. It is the way AF operates. After 7 years running the team fans should understand his methods already.
I agree that this is a great trade, Jeff. It seems as though AF may be having the team take a sabbatical in 2023 and plans to come back in 2024 with both guns blazing.
After we sign Ohtani next winter, we’ll be able to add Buehler, Treinen and Feyereisen to the 2024 roster. Then we bring back Julio, having traded for Reynolds at the deadline, and we win 120 games and sweep through the playoffs undefeated.
By the way Belge has one difference from the other 86 RHP you mentioned. He throws with his left hand. 😎
Great trade? Maybe. Both players are expected to be pitching in MLB about the same time. We’ll see.
I’m fine with moves like this but admittedly I’m far more interested in now. The Padres and giants are gearing up to dethrone us. What are we going to do to see that it doesn’t happen?
Yes great trade. This has nothing to do with what they will do for 2023. It does not impair them in anyway for making a move. Should they hold off on any trade that does not immediately impact 2023? This gives the Dodgers a proven MLB reliever for a pitcher that would never have made the LAD roster, next year, or the year after, or the year after. He will get a chance with Tampa Bay, and I do hope he makes it with them. Good deal for LAD and good deal for Belge.
I have said since the end of the WS that the Dodgers would not spend this winter. Every one of the LAD execs in front of a microphone has said they are going with the youth. I chose to believe them. Perfect timing with a need to get under the CBT threshold. And I have repeatedly said that they will not spend on any of the elite 4 SS. The only pitcher I thought they may have been in on was Verlander. I am not sure why anyone is surprised by the lack of FA signing. They are waiting for the big dogs to sign so they can zoom in on José Iglesias, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and similar talent. Or make a trade. It is possible that they will wait until ST to sign some, when they can put their three 60 day IL players on the 60 day IL to free up spots.
As good as Carlos Correa is, he is not 30 games better, even with the loss of Trea Turner. Carlos Rodón is better than Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling.
I didn’t say it wasn’t a “great trade” Jeff. The article I read said both those pitchers are likely to make it to the show at about the same time – in ‘24. We won’t know til then if it’s a great trade or not. I sure hope it works. Belge, 6’5” 225 pounds allegedly has some nasty stuff (K rate over 33%). If it can be controlled, he could be valuable. Tampa is known for developing pitching so this could work out for both teams. Could.
Sorry, I misunderstood the ?
Jeff Belge was one of Harold Uhlman’s favorites. Here is what Harold had to say about Jeff Belge last summer.
Unfortunately, Belge did not move to AA last season. He pitched 32 innings in 29 games at Great Lakes. He had a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. 50 K and 17 BB. He is a big young man with some swing and miss. I hope Tampa Bay can make him into a big league reliever, and maybe he can come back to LAD.
In the meantime, the Dodgers got a reliever who threw 24.1 MLB IP in 2022 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.49 WHIP. 25 K and 5 BB. .086 batting average against.
Yeah, Rob reminded me as well. As I said, shame on me for not remembering. I just cannot get rid of any of these 87 RHP.
Not that it matters, but Belge is actually a lefty.
Thanks. I should have remembered. Shame on me. Now the Dodgers still have those 87 RHP.
Briefly at 86 and then back up to 87. So close.
Great post.
I think it’s been reported that a Bauer decision (from MLB arbitrator, not the other stuff) is coming mid-January at the latest.
I hope you’re right. I first heard November, then December. As of right now; Month 7; Dodgers held hostage.
We shat in our bed; we should have to sleep in it.
Depends
By signing a player with kinky sex practices? Unless it’s illegal it’s nobody’s business.
I’m with Jeff on this. At first I was pissed at Bauer but the longer this goes on the more I’m getting pissed at the Commissioners office. They allow cheating to go unpunished but they are willing to severely punish both an individual player and a flagship organization for unproven accusations by a female Padre fan? Bullsh*t. Indict or back the F off. And do it now, not in mid January.
Bauer is to pitching as a new drug is to treating a health issue. It comes with warnings of side effects.
No one has come up with an answer to my question of how long Bauer would have to opt in or opt out if allowed to play this year.
My guess is that he would take about 10 minutes to opt in but I’d still like to know exactly how long he would have.
No one on the outside is sure, probably before spring training. The case has to be settled before anything can even be discussed.
I do not think anyone knows for sure. This is unprecedented. I would guess that he has 5 days, the same amount of time from the end of the WS when those not suspended need to decide.
Isn’t he guaranteed $35 million here? Why would he opt out? Is there anyone else, rich franchises only, that would give him multiple years at this time?
If I understand his contract terms correctly, he’s owed 32 million if he opts in, but the Dodgers pay him a 15 million buyout if he opts out. So, basically, he’d have to know someone would give him more than 17 million in order for it to make sense to opt out.
That ain’t happenin’.
Julio Urías won the Warren Spahn award for the best LHSP in MLB for the second consecutive year.
At least he gets that much respect.
Dodgers to sign Thor, Noah Syndergaard.
A true Viking! Best mullet on the planet.
Syndergaard one year 13.5 mil with incentives.
Prior is gonna love this guy.
You just know Prior has seen film and has ideas.
Getting the popcorn ready:
https://fansided.com/2021/11/24/noah-syndergaard-carlos-correa-derek-jeter-take/
Excellent! We have a Syndergaard-Correa rivalry to go along with the Bauer-Machado rivalry.
Gonna be an interesting 2023.
I would rather be one of the pitchers in a pitcher / hitter rivalry.
AROD was considered a better shortstop. Jeter was a winner but I don’t think he was the best defensive shortstop in any given year which is what a Gold Glove suggests. A great defensive player has to put up decent offense though to win that defensive award.
Who has the best hair, May or Syndergaard?