Losing Blake Treinen (Pictured) was tough…very tough. But Tommy Kahnle and Caleb Ferguson were due back shortly, and Daniel Hudson was already on the roster. Victor Gonzalez was also working his way back.
But now the Dodgers have lost:
Starters:
- Walker Buehler
- Andrew Heaney (twice)
- Clayton Kershaw (missed 28 days, now active)
Relievers:
- Blake Treinen
- Tommy Kahnle
- Caleb Ferguson (earliest return July 2)
- Victor Gonzalez
- Daniel Hudson
In all of the above, the Dodgers found a starter in Tyler Anderson, Mitch White, and Ryan Pepiot (if needed). They also found an electric arm in the pen in the name of Yency Almonte, a former Rockies bust, now a LAD boom.
Due back shortly is Danny Duffy and Caleb Ferguson. Duffy is available to come off the IL now and Ferguson needs to wait until July 2. The Dodgers also have Justin Bruihl and Garrett Cleavinger waiting in OKC. I have not heard much about Duffy’s potential rehab assignment, so I really do not know how close he really is.
I was reading MLBTradeRumors comments on Daniel Hudson’s injury, and there were a number of comments about the Dodgers lack of depth this year. Give me any team that loses 3 starters and 5 relievers for extended periods of time, and then tell me if they would have 3rd best record in MLB, and only .001 behind #2 (NYM).
I think what has been proven is that the Dodgers pitching depth is exceptional. OF depth? I am a little less exuberant on. I am guessing so too are the Dodgers brain trust. Why else are they putting Michael Busch and Miguel Vargas out in LF at OKC?
What the concern really is, the Dodgers are going through a 20 game stretch, with no open dates, including 3 in Colorado followed by 4 with the Padres. They are going to need fresh arms, which probably means frequent air miles building up for pitchers back and forth to OKC up to the All Star break, when they can all catch their breath.
I know some of you want to see the Dodgers do something right now. The Dodgers needed an OF and tried to stick Eddy Alvarez out there. He is getting better in RF because he is an exceptional athlete. But he is not a natural OF. AF knew he needed someone, and instead of getting players whose names were bandied about…Robbie Grossman, Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper, Victor Robles…they went out and traded for Trayce Thompson. All four of those players could be moved at the deadline, but it is going to take more than cash or the proverbial PTBNL to make those deals. Although probably not much more for Grossman.
I figure the same will be true for the loss of Daniel Hudson. I cannot see teams moving their late inning high leverage relievers before the deadline. All of the contenders are going to want bullpen help, and the sellers are going to want as many bidders as they can get. The Dodgers have two MLB experienced relievers already at OKC in Bruihl and Cleavinger, and they can use Pepiot in relief if they need to. In 3-4 weeks there will be 40-50 names being discussed.
There are a number of potential relief trade candidates that will require some level of prospect capital. There are also a number of potential starter trade candidates that will require more prospect capital. Adding a starter allows for one of the starters to drop into relief. I would be more than fine if Mitch White or Tyler Anderson dropped into a relief role if AF and BG could find a quality starter.
Trying to figure out what AF and BG will do will take one of the nerds’ computers to run probability analytics. It is more fun to just guess than to try to outguess the decision makers.
I know that some like to look at trades well after the fact and then criticize management for making such stupid trades. First it was Josh Fields for Yordan Álvarez that was criticized and now it appears that Tony Watson for Oneil Cruz will fall into that scenario. The Dodgers needed Josh Fields and Tony Watson at the time, and nobody complained about either trade when they were made. Who the devil knew that Yordan Álvarez would be the star he is, or Oneil Cruz to be the star he is going to be?
Yordan Álvarez was 19 when traded, and did not play one game as a Dodger prospect. After the trade, Houston sent him to the DSL in 2016. Oneil Cruz was playing his first year in the US and had 89 games of experience at Great Lakes (low A at the time). So if any of you truly believed that Álvarez and Cruz would be who they are today back then, you should apply for an MLB GM job.
It is entirely possible that there is another Álvarez or Cruz in the DSL or ACL. But I doubt any of us could pick them out. The Dodgers also have four 40 man candidates for a lesser trade in Andre Jackson, Eddys Leonard, Jorbit Vivas, or Jacob Amaya (less likely).
There is a little less than 4 weeks until the end of the All Star break, when things get a little more serious, and a little more than 5 weeks before the trade deadline. The names of the trade candidates will change too many times to count between now and then, but it is always fun to try.
We have already gone through the potential starting pitchers that could be available. Here are some potential relievers that some will consider. The Dodgers? I have no clue.
Here are just a few of the potential relievers that some will say the Dodgers will consider and that AF will ignore and find someone else none of us even thought of.
There will not be a consensus from fans on any of the names. Even David Bednar will cause a furor, because fans will complain about the prospect capital. I purposely left off the two Tanners; Tanner Scott (Miami) and Tanner Rainey (Washington), but those are two that will undoubtedly be on the AF and BG list because the prospect capital will be looooooow.
Of this group, I am going to get more into the Statcast numbers, but one thing that I have learned is that baseball executives like high K/BB numbers, especially for relievers. That is why I highlighted the ratios above 3.0.
This is by no means an exhaustive list. Jim Bowden has a list of 29 potential relievers who he thinks will be traded at the deadline.
One final point. FWIW, Bowden thinks that Luis Castillo is more likely to be acquired by the Dodgers, with Frankie Montas a less likely option. He did not consider any other option for LAD.
Thanks for playing!!!
Pretending to be the other Fred:
Mitch White and Andre Jackson for David Bednar and Andres Alvarez.
Jackson’s trade value has plummeted this year. If the Pirates decide to move Bednar I think they could do substantially better than your suggested trade.
You haven’t got the hang of it quite yet Fred. Here’s the play: Some cash and Kimbrel back to the Braves for A.J.Minter.
I suggested $10 million for Bednar and nobody bit. 10 XL just ain’t what it usta was.
I said early it felt to me the Dodgers rotation was vulnerable. That was before Gonsolin and Anderson pitched like Cy candidates. Will they keep that up. I don’t think so. I want to know what the plan is when this group runs low on gas in late August.
Jackson will only be used in an emergency. White is what he is. I’m glad he’s there of course, but he’s at best 5 innings of 4.25. Price might could go 5, especially against the weaker lineups. His fastball was hopping yesterday. Who else do we have? I thought it would be Pepiot and Miller. Guess not.
I doubt the Braves want anything to do with Kimbrel. And the Braves don’t need money. They are a Top 10 (7th) MLB franchise. They need to catch the Mets and would Kimbrel help with that? I don’t think so.
I have always agreed with you from the beginning that the starting rotation was a potential weakness, not a strength. We saw last year what happened to Julio Urias and Walker Buehler as they passed their career IP by a significant margin, and after a pandemic year. October was not their month, with September being the veritable wall for Buehler.
Will Gonsolin fool the baseball Gods’ calendar? Is Tyler Anderson’s changeup tweak the game changer? I am not worried about his IP, but he has never been this good this long. I am worried that Heaney will not be back or nearly as effective. He has left shoulder inflammation that he has apparently had all year. He has started 3 games all year, and thrown 15.1 innings. The Dodgers are really not counting on him being in the rotation all of August, September, and October, are they? There is a reason for shoulder inflammation. It just doesn’t magically go away.
I hope Clayton Kershaw lasts the rest of the year, starts the All Star Game, starts and wins the WS Championship Game, and retires. But that would be betting against the odds of Kersh staying healthy the rest of the year. What are the LAD plans if he does not?
Walker Buehler is going to come back and be effective and productive? I think it is more likely that he does not pitch again this year in hoping he can avoid another TJ surgery and come back fresh for 2023.
I think Pepiot can be an effective reliever this year, and an emergency starter. I never thought Bobby Miller would be a consideration for 2022. Late 2023, more likely.
I have never been as high on Andre Jackson as the scout analysts have been. I have no reason to base that on. But his trade value has plummeted this year. Did his early season option play with his head? I always believed Dennis Santana should have been a reliever, and said as much a number of times. I thought he was a potential closer, but definitely a setup. As it turns out, that is exactly where he belongs. Unfortunately, he was primarily a SP in MiLB, so he never had a truly defined role. Maybe it is time to put Jackson in that role. He is not going to be in the LAD rotation except as you say as an emergency. But David Price can fill that void. They made the decision with Caleb Ferguson, and it worked wonderfully.
So yes, I agree the Dodgers could improve their rotation with a top of the rotation pitcher. I know of three names whose names have been discussed, Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, and Pablo López. And I only believe two will be moved, Castillo and Montas. Because both pitchers will be with LAD in 2023, it is going to take probably three top 10 prospects to get this done. Are you willing to trade Miller, Busch, and Knack for either? That is two top 100 guys and a #7 in one of the top MiLB systems in MLB. Or maybe Mitch White, Bobby Miller, and Landon Knack? Neither might not be enough to get it done. I just read that the Yankees might be going hard for Castillo.
I would not be interested in the Jose Quintana, Zach Davies, Mike Minor, Kyle Freeland, Michael Pineda, or Jordan Lyles pitchers that will be available. I would rather keep White and take my chances with Pepiot.
“Are you willing to trade Miller, Busch, and Knack for either?”
At this moment… probably not. And I say that because frankly I don’t know that 1 pitcher is going to make THE difference with this particular club. I find it amazing that with Bellinger, Muncy and Turner having off years, Buehler and Heaney gone, and Betts out we are still in first place. If nobody else gets hurt, it’s absolutely possible we could win the pennant by adding a frontline starter. But, what are the odds that a. nobody else gets hurt and b. everyone that is hurt is ready for October?
I remain high on both Pepiot and Miller. So, use one in a trade but not both. Jackson has dropped out of our top 10 so I doubt he’s of interest to anyone. White would have some trade value but not much. Keep Duran but trade Beeter. We’ve got 3 SS prospects and a catcher we likely won’t need. We obviously have prospects that could be used but, so do other contenders.
I guess the bottom line is if Friedman believes this the year, then yes, go for it. But honestly, is this the year?
I find it amazing that with Bellinger, Muncy and Turner having off years, Buehler and Heaney gone, and Betts out we are still in first place.
It’s just a great time to be a Dodger fan.
You can say that every year.
There is a third reliever in AAA with major league experience, Dellin Betances.
Also, I know he was having a bad year but do you have any information on Pedro Baez? Doubt he will suddenly turn things around but just curious.
Betances hasn’t been effective since 2018, mostly due to various injuries. It would be great if he could rediscover himself this year in Dodger Blue. Here’s hoping.
Depending on the cost, I’d be happy with any of the guys on your list, Jeff. I’m not looking for a closer, but I think we need to bolster the pen right now.
Bazooka did what he does yesterday. Three or four outings where he looks great and you start thinking he might be our future closer. And just when you place that at the front of your brain, he implodes for a game or two. I’d prefer keeping him to the middle innings for the time being.
Phillips has done a very nice job. Almonte has been a wonderful surprise. But neither of those guys has a terribly long record of excellence. I think we need one more arm for insurance until our big players return (and in a number of cases that might not be until 2023).
Happy to see the success Dennis Santana is having this year. Andre Jackson has always reminded me of Santana, v.2. Maybe he just needs to be sent to Texas to realize his potential.
Nice write up Jeff. Very informative. I get a real kick out of the trade proposals by the Dodger fans. Mostly ludicrous deals where we give up s**t and get back Shinola. Just gotta hang tough until the All Star break and we start getting some of our injured players back.
For me, I’m not looking for Shinola, I just want to pass Kimbril on to someone else.
Trying to help you unload Kimbrel, Fred. Your Kimbrel for Minter deal was obviously cooked up after you’d had a few too many cocktails.
I came up with two possibilities:
1) Maybe you could convince the Red Sox to take him back for Jackie Bradley Jr., who is owed a roughly equivalent amount (which includes an 8 mil buyout for next year).
2) This is the best possibility, though, with evenly matched salaries. Maybe you could convince the Dodgers to make an even exchange of Price for Kimbrel…………………………oh wait a minute, you need two different teams for a trade don’t you?
I’ll keep Trace and his salary instead of adding Jackie Bradley Jr.
You obviously value Minter higher than I do. Bruns and Diaz and Kimbrel for Minter satisfies the Trade Simulator.
That may be, but it would not satisfy the Braves.
Believe in the trade simulator!
Maybe you could help me understand your reasoning here.
Are you basically saying you’ll do whatever you need to in order to remove Kimbrel from the roster?
Most prospect sites have Diaz and Bruns in the top 15 Dodger prospects. One has Bruns as high as 6. So yes, those two are valuable trade chips, but why would Atlanta trade one of their 2-3 best bullpen pieces in the middle of a pennant race in order to get a mostly washed up reliever with a negative value on the simulator plus two prospects who won’t see the majors for at least another 3-4 years.
Or to put it another way, if Treinen were completely healthy today and doing his usual excellent job for us, would you trade him for a very iffy closer and two prospects who are years away from helping you?
Don’t get me wrong. I totally understand how frustrated you are with Kimbrel, but I don’t see how the Braves do that trade in a million years.
“I don’t see how the Braves do that trade in a million years.”
They don’t.
I see enough in Kimbrel’s stuff to retain hope he will figure it out. The key to having him close games, for now anyway, is to have a multiple run lead in the 9th.
Jansen on back to days. Still not a good idea – for any reliever in my opinion. I suppose it depends on circumstances, like stress factors, number of pitches, but we should have enough arms down there to not have to do that.
LOL.
Wonder if AF would like to have a do-over on that trade to get Kimbrel?
I believe the answer to that is yes, but what do I know. I think it’s clear they are going to continue to run Kimbrel out there. Gulp.
Wow
Huge win.
Yep.
Gotta admit, I was ready to turn the light out. Character win.
Hard to believe but yes, we do need both another SP and a BP as well. I hate to say it, but I agree with those who think Gonsolin and Anderson will not sustain their success as the season progresses. Another Scherzer would suffice or let us have our Bauer back in time. And another stud closer to compliment Kimbral would be preferred as well. Never enough arms, is there?