Let The Projections Begin

The season of projections and prospect rankings have begun.  I am using FanGraphs projections for Standings and fWAR.  Projections are just guesses using algorithms based on past performances.

The actual metric projections aren’t really as important, but it does give one an approximation as to where a certain team/player fits within the entirety of MLB or specific position.  Two things are true with the Dodgers.  They were not as good as the 111 win team of 2022, and they are better than the team that is projected to have a .521 winning percentage or 84 wins.  Is the loss of Trea Turner, Justin Turner, and Tyler Anderson with the additions of JDM, Noah Syndergaard, and full year of Miguel Vargas project to 27 less wins?  The computers say so, but the computers also say that the most wins will be 92 (NYM,  Atlanta, and NYY).  How likely is 92 wins going to be the most wins in MLB in 2023.

Winning Percentage

1. NYM – .569 – (NL East Winner)
2. ATL – .566 – (Wild Card)
3. NYY – .566 – (AL East Winner)
4. Tampa Bay – .559 (Wild Card)
5. San Diego – .554 (NL West Winner)
6. HOU – .550 (AL West Winner)
7. TOR – .546 (Wild Card)
8. Louis – .527 (NL Central Winner)
9. SEA – .524 (Wild Card)
10. LAD – .521 (Wild Card)
11. PHIL – .521 (Wild Card)
12. CLE – .519 (AL Central Winner)

The Dodgers are projected to be a Wild Card team, and then hope that they catch fire at the right time.  Isn’t that what most are now saying is all that teams need to focus on…just getting to the playoffs.

FanGraphs also projected team fWARs.  The same teams are 1-12, but in slightly different positions.

fWAR

1. NYM – 54.0
2. NYY – 53.2
3. San Diego – 52.5
4. ATL – 50.6
5. Tampa Bay – 50.1
6. TOR – 49.8
7. HOU – 48.3
8. LAD – 47.7
9. Louis – 46.7
10. CLE – 45.5
11. PHIL – 43.9
12. SEA – 43.6

FanGraphs also projected fWARs by individual players at their respective positions.  As can be seen below, players are projected at each position they are expected to play.

Catchers

Toronto – #1 with 5.9 fWAR (Danny Jensen, Alejandro Kirk, and Daulton Varsho)

LAD – #3 with 4.8.

• Will Smith – 429 PA (at position) – 3.8 fWAR
• Austin Barnes – 205 PA – 1.3 fWAR
• Patrick Mazeika – 6 PA – 0.0 fWAR

First Base

Toronto #1 with 5.3 fWAR (Vlad Guerrero Jr)

LAD #2 with a 4.8 fWAR

• Freddie Freeman – 672 PA – 4.7 fWAR
• Miguel Vargas – 14 PA – 0.0 fWAR
• Max Muncy – 14 PA – 0.0 fWAR

Second Base

Houston #1 with 4.5 fWAR (José Altuve)

LAD #18 with a 2.9 fWAR

• Chris Taylor – 280 PA – 0.8 fWAR
• Max Muncy – 196 PA – 1.0 fWAR
• Michael Busch – 112 PA – 0.5 fWAR
• Yonny Hernandez – 49 PA – 0.1 fWAR
• Mookie Betts – 49 PA – 0.5fWAR
• Gavin Lux – 14 PA – 0.1 fWAR

Third Base

NYM #1 with 5.6 fWAR (Carlos Correa)

LAD # 11 with 3.5 fWAR

• Max Muncy – 322 PA – 1.6 fWAR
• Miguel Vargas – 315 PA – 1.7 fWAR
• Chris Taylor – 49 PA – 0.1 fWAR
• Yonny Hernandez – 14PA – 0.0 fWAR

Shortstop

Tampa Bay #1 with a 5.6 fWAR

LAD #17 with a 3.4 fWAR

• Gavin Lux – 546 PA – 2.8 fWAR
• Chris Taylor – 105 PA – 0.4 fWAR
• Yonny Hernandez – 28 PA – 0.1 fWAR
• Jacob Amaya – 21 PA – 0.1 fWAR

Left Field

Houston #1 with a 4.7 fWAR (Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Chas McCormick)

LAD #21 with a 2.1 fWAR

• James Outman – 203 PA – 0.7 fWAR
• Miguel Vargas – 119 PA – 0.5 fWAR
• Jason Heyward – 98 PA – 0.2 fWAR
• Trayce Thompson – 84 PA – 0.2 fWAR
• JD Martinez – 70 PA – 0.2 fWAR
• Chris Taylor – 63 PA – 0.1 fWAR
• Michael Busch – 63 PA – 0.2 fWAR

Center Field

Seattle #1 with a 5.9 fWAR (Julio Rodriguez)

LAD # 19 with a 2.7 fWAR

• Trayce Thompson – 357 PA – 1.5 fWAR
• James Outman – 175 PA – 0.9 fWAR
• Chris Taylor – 98 PA – 0.3 f WAR
• Bradley Zimmer – 56 PA – 0.0 fWAR
• Jason Heyward – 14 PA – 0.0 fWAR

Right Field

San Diego #1 with a 6.6 fWAR (Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr.)

LAD #4 with a 5.4 fWAR

• Mookie Betts – 609 PA – 5.2 fWAR
• Jason Heyward – 42 PA – 0.1 fWAR
• James Outman – 21 PA – 0.1 fWAR
• Trayce Thompson – 14 PA – 0.0 fWAR
• Chris Taylor – 7 PA – 0.0 fWAR
• JD Martinez – 7 PA – 0.0 fWAR

Designated Hitter

San Diego #1 with a 3.9 fWAR (Matt Carpenter, Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto)

LAD #15 with a 1.7 fWAR

• JD Martinez – 518 PA – 1.0 fWAR
• Will Smith – 119 PA – 0.5 fWAR
• Max Muncy – 35 PA – 0.1 fWAR
• Miguel Vargas – 14 – 0.0 fWAR
• Trayce Thompson – 7 PA – 0.0 fWAR
• Mookie Betts – 7 PA – 0.0 fWAR

Starting Pitching

NYY #1 with a 16.7 fWAR

LAD #14 with a 12.2 fWAR

• Julio Urias – 193 IP – 2.8 fWAR
• Clayton Kershaw – 172 IP – 3.4 fWAR
• Tony Gonsolin – 153 IP – 1.4 fWAR
• Noah Syndergaard – 153 IP – 1.2 fWAR
• Dustin May – 107 IP – 2.0 fWAR
• Ryan Pepiot – 54 IP – 0.4 fWAR
• Michael Grove – 36 IP – 0.2 fWAR
• Gavin Stone – 37 IP – 0.6 fWAR
• Bobby Miller – 18 IP – 0.3 fWAR

Relief Pitching

Chicago White Sox #1 with a 4.69fWAR

LAD #10 with 3.7 fWAR

There are 20 projected relief pitchers for the Dodgers.

The above basically quantifies what most have written since the Dodgers started their off season.  They are strong at catcher, 1B, and RF.  They are pedestrian at best and well below average at worst for the remaining positions compared with other teams.

• Relief Pitching – #10
• Third Base – #11
• Starting Pitching – #14
• Shortstop – #17
• Second Base – #18
• Center Field – #19
• Left Field – #21

There are still so many questions that need to be answered, with the resolution as to what happens to Trevor Bauer at the top of that list.

• You cannot really project team relief pitching as a team WAR can you?
• Can we really expect the projected IP from any of Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, or Syndergaard?
• Will Gavin Lux surprise with a better than expected defensive play at SS and a continuance of his pre-injury offense of 2022?
• Who is going to play 2B?
• Can Miguel Vargas settle everyone’s nerves at 3B?
• Is James Outman a realistic corner OF?
• Has Trayce Thompson actually turned the corner and become a reliable regular, and one in CF at that?
• Will the RVS and JDM reunion produce better results than a < .800 OPS?

We will revisit once we approach the Dodgers season opener at home against Arizona on March 30.  Perhaps by that time we will have some answers, but then again , perhaps more questions.