The first pitching summation will be with the starters. In 2022, 10 Dodgers pitchers started games, with two bullpen games.
- Julio Urias – 31 Starts – 175 IP
- Tyler Anderson – 28 Starts – 178.2 IP (170.2 as a starter)
- Tony Gonsolin – 24 Starts – 130.1 IP
- Clayton Kershaw – 22 Starts – 126.1 IP
- Andrew Heaney – 14 Starts – 72.2 IP (64.2 as a starter)
- Walker Buehler – 12 Starts – 65.0 IP
- Mitch White – 10 Starts – 56.0 IP (46.2 IP as a starter)
- Ryan Pepiot – 7 Starts – 36.1 IP (31.1 IP as a starter)
- Michael Grove – 6 Starts – 29.1 IP (28.1 IP as a starter)
- Dustin May – 6 Starts – 30.0 IP
The Dodgers were already without Dustin May. Shortly after the start of the season, they lost Clayton Kershaw and Andrew Heaney to the IL for extended periods. Tyler Anderson went from being a piggyback pitcher paired with Tony Gonsolin where both pitchers were needed to be starters.
Walker Buehler – 12 GS, 665.0 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 58/17 (K/BB), 8 HRs, 105 ERA+
Buehler has not been the dominant pitcher since last August. He threw more than 200 innings in 2021, and after August and into the playoffs, there was a different Walker Buehler toeing the rubber. It was clear to some of us that there was something wrong. After 3 games and 17 IP, he had a 4.02 ERA and a 4.52 FIP. Then on April 25 (4th start) he pitched a complete game shutout against Arizona. He pitched two more solid games against Detroit and the Cubs but there was still something wrong. After the Cubs’ game, everything started to unravel.
In his next 6 games, 28.1 IP, he had a 6.67 ERA, allowing 6 HRs, with 26 K and 8 BB. He only allowed 2 HRs in his previous 6 starts. His 3.25 K/BB ratio in those 6 games was the worst of his ML career. He lost velo and that great command of his fastball. His 4 seamer was one of the worst pitches in ML.
After a June 10 start against SF, he was pulled and placed on the IL with a “forearm strain”. The thought was that he would rest and come back later in the year. Unfortunately for both him and the Dodgers, he did not heal as he thought he would and underwent TJ surgery. This is his 2nd TJ surgery, and the number of starting pitchers who have successfully returned after two TJ surgeries are few and far between. I think the best one is Nathan Eovaldi. But to expect Buehler to bounce back in 2024 (his FA walk year) as a potential CY winner is a pipe dream. AF/BG cannot count on it. They have to plan as if Buehler will be a back end rotation pitcher, and if he outperforms those expectations, GREAT.
Chris Capuano was perhaps the first starter to come back after two TJs but he was not an elite starter like Buehler.
Drew Rasmussen missed all of 2018 with his 2nd TJ, and it took him to this year before he could pitch well again. 28 starts for Tampa Bay, 146.0 IP and a 2.84 ERA.
Mike Clevinger is still struggling trying to come back from his second TJ surgery.
Daniel Hudson has had 2 TJ surgeries, but it is easier for a reliever to come back. Caleb Ferguson did not look nearly as sharp as he did in 2020 when he returned this year after his second TJ surgery.
The Dodgers are going to need to plan on a different Ace in 2024. Julio Urías will be a free agent. Clayton Kershaw will probably not be around. Gonsolin? May? Miller? It is time to spend some prospect capital and get an Ace and extend him.
Julio Urías – 31 Starts, 175 IP, 2.16 ERA (#1 NL), 0.960 WHIP, 166/41 (K/BB), 23 HRs, 194 ERA+ (#1 NL)
Urías came into the season as the #2 pitcher in the rotation (behind Buehler), and came out as the clear Ace. If the opposition could not get to Julio in the 1st inning, you could pretty much forget about getting to him. He got better as the season went on as well. Over the last three months, Urías had 12 starts and 93.1 IP. He was 11-1 with a 1.74 ERA.
He did not get an All Star nod this season, even though he deserved it. His Ace credentials continued to crescendo through the end of the season. He will probably fall to Miami’s Sandy Alcantara for the NL CY winner, but that does not diminish his domination this season.
Julio will be playing next year as a 26 year old, and will be in his 3rd year arbitration. He is projected to earn $13.7MM in arbitration. He will hit free agency as a 27 year old. For those expecting a possible extension, two words…Scott Boras. Boras will not let Urías extend this close to FA.
Clayton Kershaw – 22 Starts, 126.1 IP, 2.28 ERA, 0.942 WHIP, 137/23 (K/BB), 10 HRs, 184 ERA+
Clayton ended his 2021 season on the IL with a forearm strain injury. Was he going to retire, sign with his hometown Texas, or re-sign with LAD. The season started on a high note for Clayton. On April 13 in Minnesota, in his first 2022 start, he went 7.0 perfect innings. But on a cold day in Minnesota and after 80 pitches, the decision was to pull Clayton. The fans went into an uproar, but IMO it was the right decision. This was game 5 on the season, and LAD needed Kershaw.
After his 5th start (May 7), another solid start where he shut out the Cubs on 5 hits in 7.0 innings, he was placed on the IL with a SI Joint Inflammation. He did not return to the rotation until June 11 in San Francisco. He made 10 starts before he went back on the IL with a back injury. X-rays and MRI showed that he did not have any serious injury. He got an epidural and everything was on pace for him to return quickly.
He returned on September 1, and started 7 games to end the season. He threw 41.0 innings with a 1.54 ERA. He had a fantastic 49/8 (K/BB ratio) and allowed only 3 HRs.
Except for the two IL stints, this was Clayton’s best season in several years. He is a free agent, and will undoubtedly decide again whether to retire, sign with Texas, or re-sign with LAD. He says he is leaning to playing again. There is no way that AF/BG should let Kershaw sign with Texas. Clayton needs to finish his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Tyler Anderson – 30 Games (28 Starts), 178.2 IP, 2.57 ERA (5th in NL), 1.002 WHIP (7th in NL), 138/34 (K/BB), 163 ERA+
This was Tyler Anderson’s coming out party as a 32 year old. He signed a 1 year deal for $8MM. He started the year as the piggyback reliever for Tony Gonsolin, and became a starter in his third game, later to become an All Star pitcher. Anderson was a prolific pitcher with a tremendous change that generally produced a lot of swing and miss, but also a lot of soft contact.
He had more IP than any other LAD pitcher. His 4.06 K to BB ratio was the best of his career. His ERA was the best of his career.
Anderson pitched a brilliant 5.0 innings in the NLDS Game 4 and was in a position for the win. We all know how that turned out. I made a point that many others have also made that Anderson should not have come out after 80 pitches. He might have had 2 more innings in that game, but we will never know because the algorithm says that starting pitchers cannot face the lineup three times. Or maybe that is just LAD pitchers.
TA is a free agent. I said it early on that I thought that he should get a QO and then try to work out a 2-3 year deal. I would like to see Anderson finish his career with the Dodgers. Once his starting days are over, he could become a very reliable reliever.
Tony Gonsolin – 24 Starts, 130.1 IP, 2.14 ERA, 0.815 WHIP, 119/35 (K/BB), 11 HRs, 196 ERA+
Tony Gonsolin started out the year as a starter with a Tyler Anderson piggyback before Andrew Heaney got hurt. Once Gonsolin was on his own, he dominated the opposition. In 16 games, he was leading ML with an 11-0 record and a 1.62 ERA. He was named to the NL All Star squad, and in his final game before the ASG, he gave up 5 runs in 5.0 IP. He did not pitch well in the ASG or in the two subsequent in July. He was at 104.1 IP on the season, far and away the most of his career. Was he tiring? Was his arm getting sore?
But in August , things began to return to his production in the beginning of the season. In four games, he threw 23.2 innings with a 0.76 ERA and 20/7 (K/BB). Then after the game on August 23, Gonsolin went on the IL with a forearm strain. He returned for 1 game and 2.0 innings and was deemed ready to start a playoff game, which did not go well.
For 3 ½ months, Tony Gonsolin was the best pitcher in MLB. After that? What will he be like in 2023?
The Catman is in his 1st year arbitration where he is projected to earn $3.5MM.
Andrew Heaney – 16 Games (14 Starts), 72.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, 110/19(K/BB), 14 HRs, ERA+ 136
I have to admit that I was less than pleased with the addition of Andrew Heaney. He was an injury risk, who also offered up a lot of HRs. After two starts, Heaney was put on the shelf with a shoulder injury. He returned on June 19 for one start and was out for another 6 weeks.
From the positive side, in his 7 starts and 31.0 IP, he allowed a single HR. However, in his next 9 games, he pitched 41.2 IP, he offered up 13 HRs. He was still a great strikeout pitcher. He had 68 Ks in those 41.2 IP, and only 9 walks. But those HRs cannot be ignored.
Heaney is a free agent this year. I grew to like the Heaney signing, but I am not certain the Dodgers should or will re-sign him for 2023. If he is re-signed, perhaps he should be looked at as a potential high leverage reliever. He is a genuine strikeout pitcher, which makes that move a realistic possibility.
Other Starters:
Mitch White – Traded to the Blue Jays with 3B Alex De Jesus for Nick Frasso and lottery pick LHP Moises Brito.
15 Games (10 Starts), 56.0 IP, 3.70 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 47/19 (K/BB), 114 ERA+
Mitch played a very pivotal role while with LAD. When he was jettisoned off to Toronto, he seemed to regress. I am a Mitch White fan, so I hope he turns it around next year.
The kids who started a year earlier than anticipated.
Ryan Pepiot – 9 Games (7 Starts), 36.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.459 WHIP, 42/27 (K/BB), 122 ERA +
Pepiot was my favorite MiLB pitcher before the season. I was ecstatic when he got his ticket punched to MLB. At times he pitched scared. Instead of challenging the hitters, he tried to beat them with finesse. His mighty change that got a lot of swing and miss in MiLB, never started out as a strike to fool MLB hitters. He needs to trust his stuff and pitch like he knows and others know he can. I think next year he is a different pitcher.
Now I also believed he could be a knock down reliever. He has two plus pitches, and if he cannot fully develop that slider, those two plus pitchers (4-seamer and change) are ML quality.
Michael Grove – 7 Games (6 Starts), 29.1 IP, 4.60 ERA, 1.432 WHIP, 24/10 (K/BB), 92 ERA +
Grove is another pitcher that I was never enamored with. I was very pleasantly surprised how he pitched when called upon. Like Pepiot, he needs to challenge hitters rather than try to pitch around. I do not know if he is a legit starting pitcher for a title contender team. But I sure think he deserves the chance to prove he is or isn’t.
Finally there is Dustin May – 6 Games, 30.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 29/14 (K/BB), 94 ERA+
Dustin came back in late August after a year plus out due to TJ surgery. His first game back was against the punchless Marlins. I am fairly certain he was operating a lot on adrenaline. His subsequent games did not go as well. He came down with a bad back late in the season. He was activated for the playoffs. Why? I have no idea since he did not pitch in the game.
The movement on his pitches due to his spin is second to none in the game. I look forward to seeing what he can do when healthy.
The problem will be next season. As it stands right now, the Dodgers rotation is Urias, Gonsolin, May, Pepiot, and Grove. Nobody in their right mind believes that the Dodgers will go into the season with that rotation. Who gets added? Probably Kershaw. Maybe Anderson. Maybe Shane Bieber? ☺
Changes to the pitching will be made this winter. For that I am certain.
Have to admit, I feel the same about this starting staff as I did earlier this season when I used the word “vulnerable”. Took a lot of heat for that, but turns out I was right,
I don’t see a true #1 in that entire group. I suppose 175 innings is the new 200 innings (remember 300 innings?) and though Urias hit the 175 mark the closer he gets to 30 the more nervous I get about his ability to keep it up. That guy always looks like he’s pitching uphill. Gonsolin, in my opinion, will never pitch 150 innings, and is #1 in the “next TJ surgery” pool. Buehler may be done and with the violent velocity of May’s delivery how long before he goes down again? Tyler Anderson may be the most likely to succeed and he will be 33 in December.
6 man rotation. I’m sticking with it
Shane Bieber turns 28 this May and will earn $11,700 in 2023 and arb3 eligible for 2024. Last year pitched 198 innings with a 2.88 era and a 1.04 whip. He would be the Dodger Ace for 2023 and 2024. I would be just fine with a May for Bieber straight up trade.
I would offer Urias an extension and if he doesn’t accept then I would include him in a trade for Ohtani. Urias, Muncy, and Pages to start the conversation.
Rotation: Bieber, Kershaw, Ohtani, Pepiot, Stone, Miller, Anderson
Traded: Gonsolin, Urias, May. (Gonsolin as part of package for Reynolds)
Free Agent: Correra.
2B Lux
RF Betts
1B Freeman
SS Carrera
DH Ohtani
CF Reynolds
LF Pederson
C Smith
3B Vargas
These are the conversations with you I enjoy the most, Fred.
My replies (not saying you are wrong, just that I differ on some of your points):
May for Beiber straight up. Indians don’t do that because May has never proven himself, in spite of the fact that he has tremendous upside. It would take more than just May.
If the Angels were to trade Ohtani it would be for players with a fair amount of control remaining. Urias and Muncy don’t fit that description.
Correa, not Carrera or Correra – I’m very conflicted about him but would prefer Bogaerts since I think he would be more accepted in the clubhouse.
Word is out that Burnes might be available from the Brewers. I would explore that possibility along with Bieber (we couldn’t do both, of course).
I’m all in favor of looking into Verlander. Probably going to be too expensive. Probably wants to stay in Houston, but it’s worth a look. He’s a free agent and much healthier than deGrom whom I wouldn’t touch.
Would much rather have Vargas in left field every day (at least give him two months to prove himself) rather than bring Joc back, but I know we all have our favorites.
Okay, let’s go further than just naming key players in a trade and get them closer to being “fair”. I’ll add somebody with May for Bieber. Who? I don’t know. Help me figure that out Jefe’.
Angels might want to win now instead of waiting for a bunch of young studs to actually become MLB studs. But just the same let’s say they want both so besides Urias and Muncy, and Pages who else do you want to add?
I want Vargas at third but he can also get at bats while playing LF against lefties. I think that is a mistake but I want to keep you happy Jefe’. Vargas for me needed to hit about .340 or higher in AAA before I label him as a hitting machine. Lux did. Bill Russell did. Even Joc hit .320 with 30 steals and 30 home runs.
I would like Bogaerts for third base more than shortstop. An infield of Freeman, Betts, Bogaerts, and Lux works for me. But Joc and Correa add a dimension that a bat and glove don’t.
Trade Simulator says May plus adding Pages works, but the problem I see is that the Guardians feel they can win a World Series now and Pages is still a couple of years away, so I have my doubts they do this deal.
Your Ohtani trade works on the Simulator but I don’t think the Angels trade for two of three guys they lose so quickly. Who knows what Moreno is thinking or if he plans to leave big trades up to new ownership.
To me, Vargas will ultimately be a better left fielder than a third baseman so that’s where I want him playing most of the time. In any case, I want him to get lots of playing time next year so we can determine if he’s going to have star potential or not. I don’t think he’s a sure thing, but I think he’s more likely to have a very good career than not.
Bogaerts at third is fine with me but I think someone will offer him a deal to stay at short for the next few years and that’s probably what he prefers.
Gonna be a very interesting off season. Within a week of the end of the WS, we’ll know if Andrew picks up JT’s option and if he gives a QO to Anderson. My guess is that he strikes a deal with JT at less than the 16 mil his option calls for and gives the QO to Anderson, who rejects it. Once T.A. hits free agency I think we are as likely to sign him as anyone.
May and Pages works for Bieber, but so does May and Vargas. Vargas is MLB ready. And so does May and Michael Busch. The Guardians have a top rookie in LF, Stephen Kwan. Jose Ramirez is at 3B. The Lindor trade seems to be working just fine for Cleveland with Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario as the 2B/SS. They also scored big time with their Emmanuel Clase for Corey Kluber deal. Their trade of Mike Clevinger to SD is working out well also. Austin Hedges, Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, and utility Owen Miller.
In other words, Cleveland does not lose out in trades involving their prize players. And they do not seem to need much of anything other than a top CF prospect, a top 1B prospect, and of course pitching. LAD does not have the CF, but maybe Vargas or Busch would get them motivated for 1B. Nor do they have the pitching prospects necessary to get Bieber. Other than Bobby Miller, and Badger has already vetoed any trade involving Miller. 😏
Burnes will be a lot tougher to piece together, but they have more holes that the Dodgers could fill. Maybe Brandon Woodruff would be an easier mark.
I still don’t see it. The Guardians are a playoff team and according to Spotrac Beiber is signed for $11.7 million next year. That is really inexpensive for a playoff ace.
May would help them be a playoff team.
If so he would help us too.
Wish I’d seen I left “my” out. Too late. I like the sites where you can edit your posts anytime. I also like to be able to click on new posts and go right to them. May I have both please?
SC and Rams on a bye week. UCLA got whooped. Not a good football weekend. The 9ers losing would help.
So, when Judge strikes out and the Yankees get beat again, should Friedman go after him? And at what cost?
Based on what I’ve seen so far, if we’d had Judge this season, we would have won 121 games and then still lost in 4 to SD. 🙂
Just a guess on my part, but I think because of his age he’ll go for the largest total contract instead of, for example taking a very high AAV deal for 2-3 years and then putting himself on the market again. If I’m right about that, I don’t see any way that AF is high bidder.
Well, the #6 seed is going to the series. Just doesn’t feel right to me.
Apparently my October Madness idea got shot down by committee. That’s ok. You gotta keep throwing them out there. Some stick, some fall on the floor.
The Dodgers proved they do not need May to get into the playoffs. However, would he help them IN the playoffs?
I am just going on what their beat writers have said. It is not that far-fetched. They move pitchers two years before FA. Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger. They moved Frankie Lindor a year before FA. While they were still contenders, although older, they moved Corey Kluber 1 year before FA, and Carlos Carrasco 1 year before FA. I am not saying they will move Bieber, but if they are considering it, AF/BG should be first in line to barter. They have a Tampa Bay mentality. Trade 1 to 2 years before FA to get the prospects. Both teams stay in contention every year with this approach.
“I am just going on what their beat writers have said.”
Well, you can’t beat writers.
(see what I did there)
I’ll be here all winter.
I think the Brewers are more likely to trade Burnes or Woodward than the Guardians are to trade Bieber.
Probably true, but if I were AF/BG, I would prefer to push hard on the So Cal product (Laguna Hills HS and UCSB).
Burnes is from Bakersfield. That’s close enough for me.
OK, Bakersfield it is.
I can see Laguna Hills from house.
Either Burnes or Woodruff would be a good addition and they each have 2 years of control remaining, as does Bieber.
As good as Bieber is, I’m not ready to give up Vargas in that deal although I might be in the minority. I would consider putting Miller in a deal for either Burnes or Bieber. Not sure about Woodruff who seems to have the least trade value of the three, although still a very good pitcher.
Why would the Guardians trade their team controlled very affordable best pitcher?
Ohtani might be available but theTrade Simulator will have little to do with it. It’s gonna take a Ricky Williams trade (4,441 points to 1,700 points) to get him. The Dodgers could do it but I don’t see Friedman being willing.
The Guardians have said they are willing to trade Bieber for low cost and longer term team control players. They especially try to move those that are moving into higher arbitration costs. Bieber is projected to make $10.7MM in arbitration. They basically shot their payroll with the Jose Ramirez extension. Their opening 2022 payroll was $68MM.
Cleveland also has a big arbitration raise (big in Cleveland terms) for Amed Rosario. Their opening 2022 payroll was $68MM. Another $9-$10MM for Bieber and Rosario might be a deal breaker for them.
Agree on the Ohtani likelihood. Why give up the world for only one guaranteed year of Ohtani?
I do expect us to be major players when he becomes a free agent next winter, and I have a feeling he might like to stay on the West Coast, but Seattle, SF and SD will also be very anxious to grab him.
Seattle has Japanese ownership.
SD has Darvish, whom he looks up to.
SF has fog. (Must admit, I don’t know how he feels about fog)
Looks like Fred had his oatmeal this morning. And I like that 7 man rotation.
Read this recently somewhere:
“During the regular season the Dodgers scored 5.2 runs per game and had a 2.80 ERA. Post season? 2.3 runs per game and a 3.70 ERA.,The pitching was marginally worse (1 more run per game) but the bats were worse by nearly half. 2.9 runs per game less. Our pitching wasn’t the problem.”
One more run per game surrendered wasn’t good, but scoring nearly 3 runs per game was fatal. It was the offense in that very short series.
Playoffs. There has to be a better way to do this. The league plays 162 regular season games for one reason and one reason only – money. The two best teams used to meet for the championship after 154 games but clearly that wasn’t making enough money so they added several more teams. Ca-Ching! That worked so… they just kept adding more. If it’s more games is they want, and a lot of playoff games, why not do it similar to college basketball does. Call it October Madness. The two best teams in each league get bye’s to the semi finals, which are 3 games all played at home. Everybody else plays 1 game to move on, with best record getting home field. That way every fan has a team in the playoffs and the regular season record means something, if only a little bit more than it does now.
I didn’t really think that through so I expect a few few resounding critiques.
I was rooting for the Phillies, but I did think that the Padres would win the NLCS. I am soooo glad that I was wrong. So the Padres got 5 more games in, but they did not make it to where they wanted. They went all in for Soto. Bell, Drury, and Hader. They cannot get those prospects back, and Bell and Drury will be moving on. Their farm system is depleted, and their payroll could have them tied up too much to make any significant free agent upgrade.
FA:
Wil Myers (Okay, he has a club option that will never be exercised).
Josh Bell
Sean Manaea
Jurickson Profar (He can opt out…will he?)
Nick Martinez (He can opt out…will he?)
Robert Suarez (He can opt out…will he?)
Mike Clevinger
Craig Stammen
Brandon Drury
Now the Padres can fade into oblivion just like the Giants did.
The Phillies are going back to the WS for the first time since 2009, and a total of three since 2008. (2008, 2009, 2022).
I know the majority of the discussion in this post is regarding pitching, and I think that is because of the questions about the starting rotation for 2023. But it was not the pitching that caused the demise of the Dodgers. We all can acknowledge that it was the lack of hitting WRISP that sent the Dodgers packing. I also acknowledge that neither AF or BG or Doc are going anywhere. AF has said that all of the staff are going to be retained. That means RVS, Brown, and Bates are safe. Even though it was Freddie Freeman who had more impact on the LAD hitters than any of the hitting coaches.
Unfortunately, the team went away from what Freddie was promoting and back to the RVS et al Three Outcome Approach for the playoffs. They have too many of that kind, starting with CT3, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joey Gallo (and maybe Trayce Thompson). I do not believe that JT is in that group, but I do think Father Time is winning the race. I also believe that a different Will Smith (one who was not expecting his first child) would have made a difference. It was a confluence of too many components that came together to send the Dodgers into the offseason.
Maybe we can blame Dave Roberts for not giving Miggy Vargas an opportunity. But we will never know for sure what might have been.
For 2022, the pitching was not a problem, starting or relieving. Maybe the continuance of bullpen mismanagement in the playoffs was a problem, but again we will never know if Anderson had been allowed to go 6 or 7, if Dustin May had got a call for an inning, or if Treinen could have had an inning in Game 4, etc, etc, etc.
The Dodgers need a new approach with RISP for next season that will carry through the playoffs. Will they get one?
Pitching will take care of itself. There is enough pitching in the system and those that can be acquired via free agency or trade. They do not need to win 111 games. They need to get to the playoffs, and get hot. But will they get and play more hit conscious position players to replace the grip it and rip it style players?
I recently came across this gem.
The Dodgers administration has already put in a request for a Director of Quantitative Analysis which is a new role that might help the team out.
The job description reads:
The size of teams’ analytical departments I think would shock everyone.
That sounds like a fascinating job. I wish I had the chops for it.
I would much prefer to be the scout.
Sounds like a job for Farhan.
J.T. Ginn and Michael Grove. The Dodgers two picks before Jeremy Peña. And yes I have 20/15 hindsight
I had Shane McClanahan instead of Ginn, and that was at the time of the draft.