Sunflower seeds stock just took a big jump in LA. Teoscar Hernández has agreed to return to LAD for three years and $66MM. He also agreed to defer $23MM of his salary. Why did he change his position on no deferrals? STB postulated that it might have been the 4th option year (club option). It could also be that he agreed to $23MM signing bonus. I do not think the Dodgers sign Teoscar without the deferrals.
Dodger haters are out again. Now known as the LA Deferrals, as if they are the only team that defers a portion of the contract. Sean Manaea signed a three year $75MM deal with NYM, with $23.25MM deferred to be paid out in 10 years from 2035-2044. The three years AAV have been reduced from $25MM to $22MM.
There are ignorant fans that still believe that the Dodgers and all other MLB teams that defer salaries have to fund them when they are actually paid out. Nope,
The CBA says a team’s deferred salary “must be fully funded by the Club, in an amount equal to the present value of the total deferred compensation obligation, on or before the second July 1 following the championship season in which the deferred compensation is earned.”
As an example, Shohei Ohtani has a present value of $46,076,768 for his 2024 contract amount, and for each year thereafter of his 10 year contract. He is paid $2MM annually, thus his deferred amount is $44,076,768. That amount needs to be funded into an escrow account for Shohei, and invested at a rate sufficient for the $44,076,768 to grow to $68MM. Those funds will be invested by Guggenheim Investments and will grow at rates that vary depending on the specific fund, but generally fall within the range of around 10% to 25%.
The Dodgers have the cash to fund the present value of the deferred amount, and the investment cache to invest the funds. This is a huge advantage for the Dodgers. Even though the CBA calls the present value of the deferred amount to be funded by the 2nd July following the championship year the salary was earned, Guggenheim are very savvy investors and are probably setting those funds aside before the regulation date in some form.
Andrew Friedman recently said after the Snell signing:
“You have to fund a lot of it right now, and having that money go to work for you, we have — a lot of our ownership group are from financial background and can have that money going to work right now, and just making it — not something that sneaks up on us. We’re not going to wake up in 2035 and [say], ‘Oh my God, that’s right. We have this money due.’ We’ll plan for it along the way.”
Players and their agents are often open to deferrals because they boost the total guarantee of a contract, allowing agencies to tout larger deals and players to have higher comps that bolster free agent prices. Teams benefit in a multitude of ways — by lowering their hit toward the luxury tax, providing themselves with more cash on hand and profiting off the investments that fund those deferrals. But industry sources caution that the benefit is not as outsized as one might presume.
In actuality, the Dodgers will make a profit on the funds they invest on behalf of the players. As an example, if the Dodgers invest Shohei’s first installment on July 1, 2026, that will grow to $68MM by July 1, 2034, when it becomes due. But if the Dodgers earn 10%, the lower expected return on Guggenheim Investments, they will make $94.5MM, or a profit that LAD retains of $26.5MM.
Any team in MLB could have signed a player with deferrals, if that player agreed. Not every player agrees, but many do.
Now back to Teoscar Hernández. He said all along he wants to remain a Dodger, and found a compromise he could live with. The Dodgers now have their LF, CF, and RF…Michael Conforto, Tommy Edman, and Teoscar Hernández respectively.
Shohei Ohtani
Will Smith
Freddie Freeman
Gavin Lux
Mookie Betts
Max Muncy
Michael Conforto
Tommy Edman
Teoscar Hernández
Austin Barnes, Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor and Andy Pages or James Outman.
Neither Pages nor Outman need MiLB any longer, so something has to happen to one of them, right? I can make an argument to keep either one. Ryan Ward will still be in OKC for insurance (or another AAAA OF).
I do not see the Dodgers moving Lux, but I have been wrong before.
There does not appear to be room for Kiké Hernández at this time. What does this mean for Dalton Rushing?
I would be comfortable with that position player roster without any adjustments. The SP rotation figures to be both better and deeper than 2024. AF/BG says they are still looking for a high leverage reliever. They prefer to acquire one now as opposed to the trade deadline. They have been linked to Tanner Scott, but nobody knows what legs are on that rumor.
There are about 6 weeks before the Dodgers report to ST. What other transactions can we expect until then? Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol, and Gavin Stone will be transferred to the 60 day IL. Clayton Kershaw will be signed, and then transferred to the 60 day IL.
Is Teo a better fit for rf or lf ?
Is Conforto a better fit for rf or lf?
Great move by AF/BG. Now get one high leverage RP and get ready to report to ST. I would like Enrique Hernandez back but there might not be enough room on the roster with the likes of Pages, Rojas, CT3 serving as primary bench pieces.
Go Dodgers!
The longer this dragged out the more secure I felt the deal would get done.
i know Teo absolutely wants to play here and I’m sure, so did the Dodgers smart people. So his agent did what agents do….try to get every extra dollar they can by listening to and sharing offers given by other teams in order to use this information to get LA to cough up a few more bucks. LA knew the agent has to do what agents do, so they went along with it until finally Teo said, “Enough agent…..time to end this so that my many fans can celebrate more than just the birth of Christ this season…..”
Great time to be a Dodgers fan
The other interesting aspect (that I think in right about, but not sure) is that if the team is sold. The buyer has to put their money into escrow to assume the deferrals, and the server takes all their money back.
You buy everything, including liabilities.
The lack of good defense contributed to the Yankees losing to the Dodgers. I think Betts will be a decent shortstop and Conforto a decent corner outfielder. Max played decent hot corner. Hernandez is a bit below decent with his defense. The Dodgers will not be as good defensively in 2025.
I’m pretty sure in my own mind that Roberts is not a fan of Outman and that doesn’t bode well for him. Unless, he winds up platooning in CF with Pages, Betts moves to second, and Edman moves to SS. One of Outman and Lux won’t be a Dodger in 2025.
My preference will not be a surprise here but Max could be gone next year as will Conforto and I don’t like losing Outman this year and Max and Conforto next year. So, here is my preferred lineup:
DH Ohtani
3B Betts
1B Freeman
LF Hernandez
RF Conforto
C Smith
CF Outman/Pages
SS Edman
2B Luyx
For a few semesters I was a double major in college. One major was practical, the other was philosophy. The textbook for one class was titled “The Perfectability of Man.”
Progress has been made toward perfecting the Dodgers, but more could be done.
While Pedro Lopez is a fine young pitcher, I’d rather see the Dodgers swing a deal for fine young position players. (The Dodgers have plenty of young pitching talent–and might land Sasaki too.)
So I’d still bullish on Luis Robert Jr. At 27, he is six years younger than Teo, but with a great glove and greater offensive potential.
Yes, the risk of injury is a concern. Robert is a high-risk, high-reward proposition.
If Mookie is wildly successful at SS, Gavin Lux might be a Dodger for a couple more seasons. But right now, a defense with Gold Glover Roberts at CF and Gold Glover Edman at 2B would be a step toward perfection.
There are several expendable Dodgers on modest contracts who might appeal to the rebuilding, cost-conscious White Sox–Lux, Pages, Outman, De Paula, several pitchers, and aging 4A types like Feduccia and Ward.
Teo’s return should keep Rushing in OKC. Notions of a deal for Suzuki should be gone.
But Robert, as a young stud centerfielder, still makes a lot of sense.
And a blockbuster might also create roster space to bring Kike back.
It would make the team better if we had keke rather the Chris Taylor and Rushing as the backup catcher over Barnes so Smith doesn’t have to play so many games and keke can play every where and hit better then Taylor. And Rushings would hut better then Barnes.
Hello from Sofi Stadium! Go Rams
Congrats to Shohei and Mamiko! It’s been reported that they are expecting a child…who might be a two-way baseballer and play in the NBA too.
Looking forward to Shohei with “dad strength.”
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-players-who-hit-dad-strength-home-runs#:~:text=%22Dad%20strength.%22%20It's%20what,a%20%22Dad%20Strength%22%20homer.
I’ll be surprised if the Dodgers make another substantial move with position players before spring training. But I still wish this team had more twenty-somethings…
Name Position Age Under contract thru
Shohei DH 30 2033
Mookie SS 32 2032
Freddie 1B 35 2027
Teo LF 33 2028
Max 3B 34 2026
Dills C 29 2033
Conforto RF 31 2025
Lux 2B 27 2025
Edman CF 29 2030
Bench: Barnes 35 (under contract thru ’25), Taylor 34 (thru ’26), Rojas 35 (thru ’25), Pages 24, Outman 27 …Both Pages(24) and Outman (27) are pre-arbitration.
An update on Bear. Bear is at the VA in Long Beach. He is okay, but he believed he he was not making the progress he wanted where he was at and felt the VA was a better place for him.
I am a prayerful person, so while he says he is doing well, I still have him in my prayer chain.
I am working on a new post, but the perfect ending to this year. I got sick on the 27th, and today is the first day I could work on something new. I am always the last to get the colds/viruses in the household. Two grandsons and a wife came down with the virus first, but bless them all, passed it on to me.
I will get back with a new post sometime today.
Baseball America revisited the 2020 draft and posted a redraft of the first 30 players.
“As is the case with every draft, it’s difficult to know who “won” and who “lost” on draft day. That’s especially the case for a 2020 class that saw its draft year interrupted by the covid pandemic. At the time, scouts and talent evaluators weren’t quite sure how to handle the player class and shortened five-round draft. Looking back in time, it’s even clearer that some better decisions could have been made.”
I think you can tell winners by how many of a team’s original picks get “selected” in the first 30 picks in a redraft.
In the redraft, four players drafted by the Cardinals (1 first rounder and 3 second rounders) were taken in the 1st round. The Cardinals selected Jordan Walker in the 1st round (#21 overall), but passed him over on the redraft and with BA selecting Heston Kjerstad (Baltimore’s #1, # 2 overall) for St. Louis. The other three Cardinals redrafted in the top 30:
Masyn Winn – From 2nd round to #3 overall (Marlins)
Tink Hence – From 2nd round to #23 overall (Guardians)
Alec Burleson – From 2nd round to #25 overall (Braves)
Baltimore had 3 players drafted to be included in the first 30 players redraft.
Jordan Westburg – From 1st round to 30th overall to 7th overall (Pirates)
Coby Mayo – From 4th round to 11th overall (CWS)
Heston Kjerstad – From 2nd overall to 21st overall (Cardinals)
The Dodgers had three of their draft picks included in the redraft:
Bobby Miller – From 1st round #29 overall to #16 overall (Cubs)
Gavin Stone – From 5th round to #17 overall (Red Sox)
Landon Knack – From 2nd round to #18 overall (Dbacks)
Question. Does Teo’s $23m signing bonus go on top of his$66m contract or does he just get $23 up front?